Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin has only existed in an era of MASSIVE MONEY PRINTING by the Federal Reserve, that started in response to the 2008 Financial Crisis.   When the Federal Reserve is printing money, stocks, and most other financial assets go up by a huge amount.   The best example of this is MARCH 2020, stocks and Crypto crashed on an epic scale ( Bitcoin 3000 ) when the economy basically shut down.   The federal reserve did a MASSIVE amount of money printing and stocks and other financial assets miraculously recovered in just a couple weeks.

Money printing and zero interest rates ( AKA:  FREE MONEY ) create huge speculations in worthless schemes that would never normally exist.  Tulip Mania, Dot Com Bubble, Zombie Companies that never make money, Cryptos, etc, etc.....

NOW:   Inflation is now very bad, forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and withdraw money from the system.   Now is the time when we see worthless companies and worthless Cryptos collapse.  Indeed, several crypto lenders have already collapsed and even more are in the process of collapsing.  The Federal Reserve must fight inflation and will NOT be saving the markets this time.  Bitcoin has ZERO intrinsic value, it is only worth what someone else will pay for it.   Without the speculative bubble of the past 14 years to support Bitcoin, will go close to its value of ZERO.

Bitcoin has NEVER seen an era of rising interest rates and tight money before.  This time IS DIFFERENT !!!!!  Ignore this fact at your own risk  ;D

Oh hey! Haven't seen you since the last crash. You know, when you were busy defending (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5219577.msg53673670#msg53673670) the guy who said his "computer forgot his password", lol. I was starting to worry that something had happened to you.

I'm still waiting for that sub $1k bitcoin you promised so many times (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5274477.msg55177854#msg55177854). I've got a stack of fiat just sitting here for the last 3 years slowly rapidly devaluing waiting to buy in! $1k is definitely coming this time, right? Does Peter Schiff promise? ::)

Absolutely it did. And now we are seeing all these scam shitcoins, NFTs, and DeFi nonsense exit scam and disappear. Bitcoin will be just fine though, don't worry.

Good. These companies are fractional reserve centralized scams. Guess what hasn't collapsed? My wallet software or my private keys. The sooner everyone gets their money off these platforms and in to their own wallets, the better.

Have to agree with the OP, regardless of how he "behaved" in this forum by defending someone or not, this is irrelevant.

The interest rates and the era of the big crash of Lehman Brothers, where some even UK banks collapsed (Northern Rock, Kaupthing Isle of Man and others) - during this time the investors, the hedge funds, the institutions - they got used to "cheap money" i.e. printing money endlessly, with 0 interest rates given.

Now times are changing, the rates are up, the costs of living are skyrocketing globally - hedge funds want the US dollar, as much as it represents so much debt, the US isn't going anywhere, it's here to stay for at least another century or half of it.

The dollar has value with this debt, the debt is being carried over many years and investors can get nice returns if they invest in government bonds (i.e. treasury bonds):

https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us

These are safe returns, and can be speculative (i.e. you don't only gain 3%, you also gain appreciation of the currency), nonetheless 2.8% in 1 year is quite nice, it sounds low for many but the era of "cheap money" is pretty over.

So investors prefer it this way, also the tensions in the world (Russia Ukraine and now Russia US) and other issues as well as fear all bring "flight to safety" - it could stop at some point, but right now it feels like a shift and not a process that wants to stop.

You do realise that you aren't really smart, don't you op? If you were, you wouldn't call yourself 'Hardfacts' which is cringey and you would actually learn from the mistakes that you made related to criticising BTC in the past.

Here's a fact for you. The entire cryptocurrency market isn't completely dependent on the US government or the Federal Reserve even though it does get influenced to a certain extent now and then.

BTC is a cryptocurrency that always bounces back no matter what which is another fact that I have learnt over the years.

Bull crap.

Bitcoin is still running strong just like it has been doing for more than 10 years. The price means nothing. The fundamentals haven’t changed. 1btc = 1btc. Who gives a flying cocktail about the dollar anyhow?

These high interest rates will only kill the dollar and when it happens, bitcoin will take over. Powell can’t risk this so soon he will chicken out and lower the rates again. Then bitcoin will go above $200k.

If anything, the rates will only go up further.

There is no doubt that the rampant fiat money printing helped to drive the last bull run up to $60k, but it is hardly the only reason. Sure, without it the price will dip as we are seeing, but it isn't going anywhere near zero. The fundamentals of bitcoin haven't changed and bitcoin will continue working just fine.

When inflation is 8.6%, your 2.8% returns are actually a ~6% loss.

Nope, sorry. America is the only country in the world. Everyone knows that. ::)

Higher interest rates favor the savers and disfavor the borrowers. It reduces, first, productivity and, later, consumption. However, I'm not sure there's a strict correlation between those two and bitcoin. Aren't many using bitcoin as savings and/or store of value?

That's true for everything. Food is worth what people are willing to pay for it, gold is worth what people are willing to pay for it, cars are worth what people are willing to pay for them. It has nothing to do with intrinsic value.

It’s not correlated, because Bitcoin still outperforms any interest rate a bank could offer.

The people that would put their money into the bank for interest(for a loss because it still won’t outperform inflation), will be the people who buy Bitcoin last anyways. So i dont think it influences the demand side that much.

The only effect it would have, is that speculators can’t easily ape into Bitcoin or any other investments with borrowed money. Which would probably favor Bitcoin, because the market would be more hesitant to get into braindead projects or empty hypes. So higher interest rates could actually favor Bitcoin, and for sure won’t hurt it.

And as we saw now, it’s better for Bitcoin if people don’t leverage too much into it. We don’t need actors like celsius bringing down the whole market, because they gamble too much.

There's no reason to compare bank interests with Bitcoin's performance. Banks offer a stable or floating rate for your investment/deposit every 3/6/12 months. Bitcoin on the other hand, doesn't guarantee you a certain percentage of performance, but the possibility to rise in the future. It can't guarantee you that it'll earn its money. History has shown that the probabilities of recovery are decent, however, you're not earning an X amount per Y days/months. It's an asset similar to how stocks perform.

Don't get me wrong, bank's interest is close to zero and can't outperform the yearly inflation rate.

Yes, but it's not enough. Offering me ~3% in returns when there's a nearly 10% inflation in my country does only make me poorer.

And nobody guarantees you that the value of the dollar, the euro, the pound will continue as is. It might rise, it might fall. But, nobody knows for sure. Same goes for bitcoin. However, during the last 10 years, bitcoin has risen by more than 180% in every year, on average, while the fiat currency I use has a cumulative inflation of 18.58% (https://www.inflationtool.com/euro/2012-to-present-value), from 2012 to present.

Yeah, it's different, BTC never had a threat of recession on its tail because it emerged on the tail end of the last one. But that doesn't tell us much by itself. I doubt this will be an end to crypto or BTC, it may weed out the shitcoins, but the major players have some solid ground to stand on. What we might see is a bit longer crypto winter than it was previously thought of, and that's understandable, it's a shitshow all around the world and BTC is not immune to such economic trends.

And so the cycle repeats. I remember back in in the 2017 bull market where people were throwing money left right and center in to every completely pointless and stupid ICO that came along. The ICO bubble burst, the whole market crashed, 99.9% of those shitcoins died and were never heard of again, and bitcoin just kept going as it always does. This time round people threw their money away on picture of monkeys, shitcoins like Luna, and scam centralized platforms like Celsius. But bitcoin will keep going as it always does.

But as you say, it can't outperform inflation, which can rapidly spiral way out of control as we are currently seeing. You might end up with more fiat than you started with, but the purchasing power of that fiat will be markedly reduced.

Let's hope so!

Interesting point, that I hadn't come to the conclusion of. I'm a big believer in correlation doesn't mean causation, but this is quite a good way of looking at things. I remember how mad the 2017 craze of ICOs was, I mean we're still recovering here on the forum from the amount of spam that invited in, but also the effect it had on cryptocurrency adoption.

Although, I didn't make the connection of the recent NFT, and other shit coins that have been peddled recently. So, while on one hand it doesn't look like the market is following the exact same pattern that some people claim it to be, it does have some interesting deja vu with the ICO, and NFT craze.

3%? That's a lot, in the best case scenario the best you'd get is 0.50%-1%. No one can guarantee you anything, 10€ in 2012 isn't worth 10€ in 2022. Our purchasing power has been severely affected the past few months due to the rising inflation. Bitcoin on the other hand, despite the crash, is still worth more than it was worth in 2019-2020.

Staking in such cases can provide more guaranteed results in terms of investment, usually surpassing 10-15% APY. And could possibly balance inflation in a way.

Absolutely. But the similarities are striking. There is an endless stream of people who are looking for the next get rich quick scheme, and a similarly endless stream of scammers who will exploit this mentality. I'd bet that at some point in the next 3-5 years during the next major bull run that NFTs are all but forgotten, and there is some new exciting, shiny, and ultimately useless craze which will result in a lot of people losing a lot of money.

Go and ask all the people who were getting 20% returns on Celsius how "guaranteed" their returns are. The fact is that nothing which is offering those ridiculous returns is risk free, as thousands of people have recently found out by losing everything.

Not this guy again  ::)

Where are these trolls and paid shills when the price are booming? Their drivels means nothing when the price of Bitcoins recover, so they wait like a bunch of vultures to feast when the price goes down.  >:(

Bitcoin is the "Microsoft" of the Crypto currency world..... and Shit coins & NFTs are the "Mom-and-pop" shops that goes bankrupt, when there are economic hardship in the global economy.

The best thing about posts like this... is when we hit all-time-high prices, then we rub it back in their faces ..when they hide in their little troll caves.  ;)

Well, you could argue that every moment in time has its unique conjunctures. As to my knowledge we never had a pandemic followed so closely by a break in political relations and a full-on economic war between the most powerful "empires" of the world. Yes, Bitcoin has never passed through this combination of events, BUT it has taken bigger hits and came back up like nothing happen.

From my perspective this is just another test for the allegedly best store-of-value asset the humanity ever had. We need to take into account that the big fortunes are made in recessions. The deep pockets know* how to play with the emotions of the crowds. Bitcoin's liquidity is still on the lower side and in combination with the high leverage used by many players (often retail) produces big dips in price.

It will take time for Bitcoin to become more resistant to the economic cycles, but Rome wasn't built in a day and good things take time. Zoom out if you're in doubt ;)

To me there’s a reason to compare it, because in my opinion markets will take all possible options into account, to save their money. We see huge fluctuations in the short term, and in the short term the best asset varies. But for long term investors this doesn’t matter as much, there’s a reason Bitcoin is the best performing asset in the long term, it doesn’t just happen accidentally for over a decade. And we know there’s no guarantees, but doing nothing will guarantee a loss of all the time we spent working, for nothing in return. Bitcoin is risky, but fiat is more, and the market will just take the risk into account, it won’t hamper demand.

When i first got into investing i considered every possibility there is, before i even really knew about bitcoin. I compared everything from taxes and other factors(also the state of fiat) of each asset class, and my conclusion was Bitcoin is the best investment there is. No one introduced me to it. And other players in the market will act similarly. And then only after this, i learned what Bitcoin is really about.

And you’re right, you're not earning an X amount per Y days/months, but the reality is, at the banks you're actually loosing an X amount per Y days/months. There’s no reason for the majority of the market to bring their money back to the banks, first it’s a secure loss, second people know how unstable banks are at the moment (with no sign of betterment). Just because regular people are still asleep, doesn’t mean the market is.

Bad times are the best test for how strong something is, this is also a chance for Bitcoin to prove itself, for people who were unsure before.

If banks can’t even provide you 1%, what makes you think other projects can do this sustainably?

So the Fed closing the gate after the horse has bolted should be concerning to us?  All they're doing is making a feeble attempt to slow their economic freefall.  They aren't turning anything around.  And they'll abandon "tight money" the moment it suits them.  I give it two years tops before the rampant printing resumes.

Consider me "warned".   ::)

I wanted to start a new thread but i guess there is no need for another thread about the current dump, which i consider to be just normal for one who understands how bitcoin works or has worked since its creation.

Let me get to it, i thought when we started having institutional investors coming into our network in their numbers that it would bring some stability, do not get me wrong, i did not think it will immediately make bitcoin stable, but i thought, and i am sure i am not the only one, that we might not see bitcoin below 20k USD or so, not that it matters too much, and from history bitcoin will go on quite fine, and other than people panicky, nothing is really happening.

So now that bitcoin went below 20k USD again, to prove me wrong about what i thought, do you think bitcoin can ever be stable, not that i worry about that too much, i buy most times there is a dip, but i still want to know, i am not talking of a near complete stability, but stable to a certain extent that will make it almost impossible for some level of crash or dips to happen, or will btc always be a coin that can dip fast and rise again.

We talk about 'mass adoption', and even if i honestly do not know what a time like that will mean for bitcoin, but is a certain level of stability one of the signs of mass adoption?

Ah, you are just waiting for the crash times to come to say something anti-Bitcoin, right? But did you consider, even from a purely pragmatic economic perspective, how much money you could've made if instead of being very anti-Bitcoin you just bought in the last bear market and sold around ATH?
IMO, Bitcoin crashed in March 2020 NOT due to Fed overprinting. It crashed precisely when the pandemic was officially announced, so the crash can be attributed more to panic selling and FUD than anything else. The printing would come much later, and at that time Bitcoin was doing quite well.
I am not sure why Bitcoin fell now or if there even is a good reason, but there's no reason to believe that it won't recover this time. But I guess some people never learn. I guess we'll see you next time, when Bitcoin falls down to the miserable $80k and is once again worthless, purely speculative and all that.

I also REALLY thought that institutional money going into Bitcoin would change everything   :o   Institutions were starting to get very interested in the run up to Bitcoins highs...  But that is not going to happen now, almost no institution is going to risk it now that they have seen a fast crash and Bitcoin losing more than 66 % of its value...

Michael Saylor will most likely be getting a margin call soon that will collapse Micro Strategies.  This will be a giant, red flag, massive warning to any company thinking about investing in Bitcoin.

Are you honestly suggesting that at absolutely no point in time, any large institutions which were investing in bitcoin looked at the price charts prior to the last year and realized that bitcoin is prone to big swings in price? In among the entire investing arms of firms like MicroStrategy, Grayscale, Tesla, Galaxy, Voyager, Square, and countless others, there wasn't a single employee which knew that bitcoin sometimes goes down in price? Not a single person which clicked on Coinmarketcap and said "Hey boss, look at this chart." This is an insane suggestion, even more insane than all the Peter Schiff nonsense you parrot without a second though. Anyone with half a brain knew that a dump was coming at some point. Bitcoin was never just going rise exponentially indefinitely.

This dip is a boon for institutions. If they were buying at $60k, then they are definitely buying at $20k. And all the newbies panic selling are the ones handing their hard earned bitcoin over to these institutions at discounted rates.

Of course they knew about huge volatility.  BUT, Bitcoin was being advertised to institutions as now more stable, DIGITAL GOLD, INFLATION HEDGE, and that the huge crashes were a thing of the past.

That narrative is now dead.   It would take a very long time for institutional money to trust Bitcoin as being stable again...

Yes, because huge financial institutions base their investment decisions on which ads show up in the Facebook feeds of their employees and whatever the top cRyPtO iNfLuEnCeRs are shilling on YouTube that week. ::)

Stop embarrassing yourself with this wild and obviously bullshit speculation. Institutions knew exactly what they are buying, and the smart ones are buying more.

You spouted the exact same nonsense that bitcoin was dead and everyone should buy gold instead 2 years ago when bitcoin was ~$8,000. I'll see you again in a few years when bitcoin "dumps" to $50k and you show up again to tell everyone it's definitely dead this time. ::)

Hi DooMAD,

It is good to see you still here after all this time !!!  I have to give you an A for team spirt and persistence   :)

I also agree with you on this one.   The Federal Reserve will absolutely reverse course, cut interest rates back to zero, and do massive money printing again when the financial crisis starts later this year.   Timing is impossible to predict, but I do not think that it will not take two years, my best guess would be this fall of 2022.

It is so interesting the fact this guy woke up after a long period of inactivity in his golden mansion earned with his flawless market instinct to warn us all (helpless investors trapped in a crypto "cult") to stop shoving our money into a furnance.  ::)

You gotta give some credit to this act of pure altruism, o_e_l_e_o.
Other people is his position would enjoy their fortune selfishly and in silence instead bringing some sense to us.  ;)

Bitcoin from zero to $20k at current price. Does it looks like Cryptos collapse? One can argue it collapsed from $65k to this price today. But haven't we seen this many times that we can not even finish counting? OP seemed to coming from ATH to current price. Bitcoin does not have other value for him rather than compering it with worthless fiat.

HardFacts, I consider it this way, 1 BTC is 1 BTC. It has survived against every odd from last over 10 to 11 years. As long as internet exists it will survive. An email seemed impossible for people who were in postal service. Internet was once a bubble. Give bitcoin one more decade, there will be no talk about its disappearing. 

So then why all the song and dance about how this time is different "because tight money" if you think they're going to abandon tight money?  Kind of undermines your whole argument, doesn't it?

You are correct...  The Federal Reserve reversing course and printing massive amounts of money could make the Stock Market and Bitcoin go up by a huge amount again, just like March 2020...

The bad part is that is where out of control inflation, and possibly hyper inflation of the US Dollar sets in. 

Well Peter Schiff's staunchest lieutenant has been suspiciously silent for the past 12 months, I wonder if he has been hiding inside his GOLD RESERVE BURROWS while we were experiencing the great bull run? ;D


You are in your usual pessamistic mood about BTC, I wonder why you didn't mention such things as monkeypox and forced FEMA tents as one of the causes of our future downfall? :P

But nobody's going to miss the crypto lenders and speculators, they were never part of the movement. People only saw them as the heads because they had the most money. Now that the heads are cut, watch the weeds paradoxially grow in grassroots.

Exactly! I was extremely reluctant of participating in Celsius offerings. Realistically speaking such a public business with wide reach like Celsius offering 10-20% APY must raise some red flags. In traditional finance higher returns = higher risk. While that might be true in popular, widely advertised opportunities/businesses/assets, risk is subjective to the knowledge and experience of the individual.

I don't want to put straw on fire, but if people actually read the terms & conditions of Celsius, it was clearly stated that Celsius can/will lend your crypto to third parties. But let's be serious, how many retail "investors" actually read the T&Cs? That is why Celsius had a massive focus on their marketing game --> Offers upon offers, bonuses over bonuses just to put your money in there.

Logic never was his strong point.

Sounds like a great argument to get out of USD and USD based investment vehicles, and in to something like, oh I don't know, bitcoin. ;)

Absolutely. All these platforms are the same. The next to go I think will be BlockFi, which has Terms of Use nearly word-for-word identical to those of Celsius. And don't forget exchanges like Coinbase, which file legally binding SEC documents stating that all their users are treated as "unsecured creditors". But their CEO made a tweet saying funds are safu, so nothing to worry about! ::)

I don't recall anyone ever advertising Bitcoin as a stable currency, and institutions/companies would've absolutely known this. In fact, I actually suspect this is why some of them got involved in the first place. El Salvador for example, likely got involved anticipating a upward trend, so they can better their country very quickly. Obviously, at the moment the opposite has happened, but if they were to hold on long enough to see x2/x3 their money, they could really launch their country, quicker than they would be able to elsewhere.

They'll be back, but the volatility has always been a issue for companies to start accepting Bitcoin. It's why the likes of Steam, Wikipedia and various other companies pulled out after a certain period. This isn't anything new at all.

I am one of the ONLY people here using Logic, most people here are completely and utterly emotionally invested in Bitcoin...

DooMAD had the best point out of anyone in this whole thread...   Bitcoin could go up again when the Federal Reserve reverses course, and starts money printing and blowing up the stock market bubble again.  Bitcoin has been following the NASDAQ pretty well.

The one unknown is how Bitcoin will do in a financial crisis...  If Bitcoin survives, I would look at buying some Bitcoins when the Federal Reserve starts the money printing again.  Bitcoin could shoot up like crazy if it does not collapse completely before then  ;D

To be clear, that's not the point I was making.  My argument was that whatever the Fed might momentarily be doing, it doesn't instill any confidence on my end that the US (or any other nations for that matter) are turning their economies around any time soon.

I'm not making any predictions about Bitcoin's short-term price movements or the impact the Fed may or may not be having on it.



Given that Bitcoin was born out of a global financial crisis, I'd imagine it'll do just fine.

Actually, that's known. Bitcoin was born in the 2008 financial crisis (a year later to be precise) as said above, and got away with it pretty neatly. You can look on the charts, it's been one of the astutest investments since the beginning of the crisis. It has also experienced financial cathode, which began in late 2012 IRC and it is now experiencing depression.

The only thing it hasn't yet experienced is prosperity.

Perhaps I'm not up to the news but I did a quick search on Google (a shallow one though) and it looks like El Salvador hasn't issued their Bitcoin bonds yet. They are still blocked by bureaucracy and politics as far I see. If they can manage to successfully market the bonds at these prices they would be well positioned for the next bull market. Well, that's not a sure thing of course, but yet 5x'ing their money when BTC gets to $100k would be quite a treat  :D


Aren't there payment processors out there who instantly change Bitcoin to fiat in the backend for a fee? I know at least one that offers a solution like this for ecommerce websites. This way businesses who do not want to stack up on Bitcoin can enable users pay using crypto and offset the volatility risk.

I never did. I understand the excitement behind it but institutional interest in Bitcoin actually quietly ramped up in 2016, and all the way up to 2017. I only got clued in because I was just starting up my freelancing at the time and there were curiously a lot of jobs with PEs and hedge funds and offshore companies readying themselves up for a toe-dipping into Bitcoin (not crypto, mind you, Bitcoin).

These guys weren't going to wait for some ETF to get in and load up!

They are what caused the 2017 top, and ensuing crash over the next 2+ years. So point is, they already saw a crash, lived through it, weathered it, and then other institutions became public in the last rally.

66% down? They've lived through 85%, they expect it.

You'll still get the stragglers coming in for the next rally, before the behemoths of old money also shake the dust off and concede.

WRONG   :(   Bitcoins run up in price was during the MASSIVE MONEY PRINTING by the Federal Reserve that followed the financial crisis of 2008.  Bitcoin really started trading on any significant scale when things were near rock bottom already, and financial assets only went up due to Quantitative Easing 1, 2, and 3, and zero interest rates...

I expect Bitcoin will CRASH HARD during a financial crisis, just like it did in March 2020, but WORSE...

The time I would consider purchasing Bitcoin is IF IF Bitcoin survives the crash, it will be very very cheap.   Bitcoin, stocks, and all financial assents will have nowhere to go but up when Federal Reserve starts massive money printing again....   This would be speculation on my part, make quick money if it goes up again, then get out.  I do NOT view Bitcoin as a long term investment.

So your strategy is rather to worship the printer than to find a way out of it, while being a crash prophet at the same time, sounds inspiring. And then you call other people emotional.

Idk if you’re aware that your crash strategy requires huge amounts of capital to pull of, because it’s hard to stay liquid during economic collapse. Also you can’t know the political consequences it will have on assets, there’s no bailouts for shrimps. You definitely have a winner’s mentality and long term vision, you’re outsmarting the whole world.

You probably already lost more opportunities to make profit by waiting for a crash, than an actual crash can bring you. And in the years you wait for crashes, inflation will already outrun you.

This is a positive note, with your motivations you just mentioned.

The guy who only shows up during bear markets to scream about how everyone should listen to Peter Schiff calling other people too emotional. Lol.

Yes, many. It is very easy for a merchant to accept bitcoin and have it instantly converted to fiat so they are not exposed to any price fluctuations whatsoever, and all for a lower fee than they pay for accepting credit card transactions.

I mean, QE 3 ended at the end of 2014, when bitcoin's price was ~$350. By the time bitcoin peaked at ~$20k at the end of 2017, the Fed's balance sheet had been static for years, and indeed they were just starting to reduce it. The peak of ~$13k in 2019 came at a time when the Fed's balance sheet was the lowest it had been in 5 years. This run up was absolutely influenced by more money printing, as I said on the first page of this thread, but bitcoin has not only survived times when there was no money printing or indeed active steps to reduce the outstanding balance, but has even hit peaks during these times.

Here's my theory. People who were cashing out causing this current crash have actually made good money out of the whole thing. Now they are just waiting when it's low enough to buy again. No one wants to be too late, like, "Today it's $20k, I'll wait till it's $15k and then I'll start buying." The next day the price is $25k. "Oh, I'm f*cked! What do I do? Oh, the price is $27k already! I better buy now before it goes up way more." And so on. This way the very people who crashed it will make it go to another ATH.

And if it weren't obvious that BTC is going to be one of the best ways of payment in the future, it would crash completely long time ago.

OP, just don't think you are smarter than millions of the smartest people in the world. That's immodest.

What's 2.8% when real inflation is probably close to 20%?

---

By the time they buy back in it will be the same price they sold at so they wasted their time and also have to pay taxes on what they sold.

You are ignoring a very important fact:  Interest rates have been NEAR ZERO for the entire time of Bitcoins existence.   Near Zero interest rates, with a high balance sheet by the Federal Reserve ( there was never any significant reduction, it was tiny ) is HIGHLY STIMULATIVE monetary policy, the same policy that produced the 2006 Housing bubble.

Near Zero interest rates, AND Massive Quantitative easing by the fed over the last 14 years is unprecedented in history, and produced many bubbles in assets that should be near zero.  BITCOIN, NFT's,  Zombie Companies that will never make a profit etc. etc.

I suppose the real question is whether it's only the institutional investors who consider such things, or whether it's private individuals who are keeping close tabs on it too.  For me, personally, I sure as hell wasn't looking at what the Fed was or wasn't doing when I first bought in.  And I wasn't looking at what my own nation's government were doing either.  All it took was a general sense of unease about their overall lack of competence regarding the economy and off I went looking for an alternative.  

It doesn't really matter if they're printing or not printing, interest is high or low.  All it takes is for the average person to think the central bank/government are a bunch o' fuckin' idiots and bam! - we find ourselves another potential new Bitcoin enthusiast.  And given the general state of affairs right now, cost of living rising, wages failing to keep pace, etc, I'm sure there are going to be a lot of people having a serious loss of confidence in their national currencies.

I'm very curious how you got to the conclusion that Bitcoin's value should be "near zero". I suspect that's very shallow thinking.
Civilizations traded in shells thousands of years ago. How are shells more valuable than a complex, sophisticated network and rare cryptocurrency? And don't bring the argument that shells are 'tangible'. Goodwill is not tangible, but still is worth millions of dollars in company M&As. What would dollars or any fiat currency be worth without the backing of governments' decisions & guarantees? You see, it is all about trust here. The nature of Bitcoin's network makes it a trustless instrument for storing value.

What would you trust? A government full of corrupt individuals with their own self-interests or a network secured by hard core code and nodes all around the world that has a proven track record of 13 years already?

Moreover why is Gold worth so much in comparison with Bitcoin? --> Because it is tangible and has been valued by humanity for so much time. But things change. That's how we evolved as a race. Technology empower us and we should embrace it, BUT with a tint of conservatorism.

Given the statement above, you are completely and utterly ignorant of Macro Economics and how it affects asset prices.  

Most people do not think, or are even aware of what the Federal Reserve is doing when they invest...  But any fool can look at the " Miraculous " recovery of the stock market in April 2020 and figure it out  ;)  The economy was shut down, businesses closed, lockdowns, things were looking very bad, no one knew how bad Covid-19 would get.  The Federal Reserve went into emergency Money Printing mode, and cut interest rates to zero.  RESULT:  The Stock market, Bitcoin, and other assets had the fastest, best recovery in history.  

Professional Investors know that the Federal Reserve is now the biggest force in the markets, BY FAR... This is accepted fact to everyone but a Bitcoin cult believer

Yet, You still can not figure it out ???  

If you treat investing as though all participants in the market are reading from the same hymnsheet, you're going to lose every damn time.  These so-called "professionals" can't comprehend the reasons why I'm a market participant and I don't give a rat's ass why they decided to get involved.  All I know is that my gains are usually more impressive than theirs.   :P

Thats what i am tinking too. Long term bitcoin will rise!

The problem is that you have no clue of macroeconomics and probably just studied one small part of it, and now can’t see anything else, but this. It’s like someone blindfolded you with some bs and now you refuse to see anything else.

I don’t think anyone who’s into Bitcoin isn’t used to fluctuation, but in the long term it just becomes noise. No need for hysteria. If we’re going really long term macro nothing could speak more for Bitcoin. If you think countries can still afford high rates for a long time, then i think you was asleep for the last 14 years. If you think a failing system can be kept alive trough more and more authoritarianism(cbdcs) forever, then you probably also think communism is a great system that just hasn’t been implemented right yet.

Do you get it, no matter what the fed does, it’s just one reason more, people will go into Bitcoin. The fed is the best marketing team Bitcoin ever had, even tho it’s painful and costly and the whole world is paying for it. The only way for them to compete is to act honestly with everyones best interest in mind, now seeing individuals in the government starting to do this, is probably more unlikely than you getting more expertise about economics by just worshipping the fed. Wont happen.

We are fully aware what the fed does, another thing is to care about them. Pro tip: check out what’s written inside block 0.

A person that bases his whole life decisions and thought process around, if someone in a central bank presses a button, calls us a cult.

Totally agree! I think it is the time people become more self-sovereign. Institutions are there to serve us, yet they have become a nuisance. The "system" is clearly not working for everybody.

We need something better. And that could be a global store-of-value asset whose supply is not controllable by any central entity that is prone to corruption. Power corrupts, we all know that. Through code we can leverage the power of the crowd without the risk mentioned.

Yup, also Bitcoin is kinda designed to work in hostile environments, like an immune system, the more dirt you throw at it, the better it adapts, the stronger it becomes. Having no challenges makes it weaker over time, because it gets untrained. Some people don’t get this, they rather see it fail and themselves failing and the world burn, than having been proved wrong. What about putting energy into fixing this mess.

Also it’s remarkable to me, how you can hand people a way out of their misery on a golden plate, and they’re still reluctant to go against the herd. Because they’re waiting for a zero uncertainty, trillion dollar investment, zero work required unicorn to save them from everything and solve all of their problems, that will never happen. Some people have zero appreciation for all the work that goes into building something that is intended to give them control back, out of this rat race. They just let their lowest instincts for comfort and certainty rule themselves, which works against them and leads to complete exploitation.

Professional investors? Federal Reserve? Bitcoin cult? Do you even think before typing this garbage? You are simply speculating just like any other investor in the crypto world and your reasoning makes zero sense.

Don't act like you know what's going to happen in the future. Many fools will always doubt BTC, but time proves them wrong again and again. This is another fact.

TIME TESTED, UNIVERSALLY ACCEPTED INVESTMENT FACT:

Past performance is not indicative of future results and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s)

Does it even strike you as a little ironic that you say no one knows the future, then YOU tell everyone that Bitcoin will rise in the future, and state it as FACT    ;D

I don't understand what you have written, but I think I know what you meant to say: no one ever profited from Bitcoin, people were only wasting their time on buying and selling it, and also some money on taxes. Brilliant! Those are hard facts, right?


You mean, stock market prices are unpredictable? Try to understand it yourself, and stop "predicting" then.

There are a few reasons why Bitcoin has crashed in recent times. It's not just the main issue of Federal Reserve. Some others are also important to crash bitcon price like Ukraine-Russia war, still which is existing. There has been a backlash attitude towards bitcoin from china, including the recent issue of bitcoin mining. I think these reasons are actually responsible for the Bitcoin crash.

I have to say I didn't study no part of macroeconomics at all, and I still somehow agree with you. Maybe it could be for different reasons, maybe I just stumbled into crypto by luck and figured it out of my own without help just with pure luck, but I agree. Whatever fed does, whatever governments does, whatever people think will happen, all of that are useless because in the long run there will be plenty of situations where bitcoin will go up.

Definitely they could impact it for the time being, they could make it more volatile and it will go up and down like crazy, but that doesn't change the fact that we are talking about something that is short term and for now, whatever happens today, will have zero impact a few months later.

seems someones missing a few basics about economics..

what im about to say is directed more to hardfacts. but i thought id knock two birds with one stick
(looks like these two are already stoned. so ill use a stick)

if it really was true power for the buyer to choose at their whim.. the buyer would want to pay less.. every time
nothing would be worth more then a weeks salary. iphones PS5 wouldnt be selling for more then $200

but.. here is the the wake up lesson
buyers dont have the sole power/discretion/price control. so its not a case of the price of something is only worth what people are willing to pay..

i think you are confusing where the current ATH tops out at.. whereby the ATH is the point at which there are no more buyers wiling to pay more as your misunderstood belief that value is just what people are willing to pay. because you think value is the price people do pay, until they stop.


but dont confuse market price with intrinsic/underlying value
put it this way... if it
physically costs a farmer $0.50 to grow enough wheat for a loaf of bread
physically costs a bakery $0.10 to bake the dough into bread..
physically costs a truck driver $0.01 to deliver a loaf to a retailer

the bakery will not sell it to a retailer for less than $0.61
if the retailer has all its stock/shelf fillers and cashier labour costs and profit margins to meet share holders expectations. and refuses to sell for less than $1.50.. by putting a price ticket up for $1.50
guess what. a customer cant just say "im willing to pay $0.50, so heres 50cents, im taking the loaf, thank you, bye"
a retailer would rather call the security guard over and stop that customer leaving with the loaf.

the customer is instead going to pay what the retailer offers... not the other way round

breads intrinsic value is not the $1.50. . (the market PRICE is not the intrinsic value.. )
the intrinsic value (in my example) is somewhere above $0.61 but below $1.50(i never mentioned retailers true minimum costs added)

there are value(economic) and there are values(sentiment, desire, utility)
the intrinsic value(economic) is the underlying base cost that no one would sell below.

bitcoin does have an intrinsic value. and its not the price. its below the price. its the baseline no one sells below due to what is achievably the minimum cost on the planet anyone is willing to use to create/acquire something to then sell for.
dont confuse it with the PRICE which is normally the most people are willing to buy(variable).

the values(sentiment, desire, utility) may bring it into life to be wanted/needed which is the first trigger to then get the producers to start producing more/better/more difficult/stronger version.. . and as the sentiment/desire increases, the price increases which then allows the producers to make something better/stronger/more difficult to produce which raises the intrinsic value
but there is always a buffer between the lowest cost value. and the lowest price(the added profit/sentiment of speculation/values)

the values(sentiment,desire) is the speculative layer above the underlying value(economic) where by if demand and desire is good, they can speculate to add more premium speculative amount on top for more profit.

bitcoins price is multilayered.. the price itself is not 100% based on whimsy
yes bitcoins price is not the intrinsic value. but that does not mean bitcoin doesnt have one

Tulip Bulbs had a very high PRICE until the mania collapsed.

Bitcoin will have a very high PRICE until the mania collapses.

In the end, Bitcoin's ONLY value is what someone else will pay for it... Once the hope of selling bitcoin for more than you paid for it is gone, Bitcoin will be almost worthless. 

Two different assets, two different times. I see no reason to assimilate the two "assets" - if you can name a tulip an asset taking into account they are highly reproductible. But I'll play your game just for fun:

1) Bitcoin has a limited supply, tulips obviously don't.
2) The tulip bubble only lasted for 3 years. Bitcoin is already more than 4 times older than that and went through a lot of up and downs. I wouldn't name it a bubble anymore.
3) Tulips do not have any of the utility properties of BTC like durability, portability and security. Not even mentioning the fact that you can't digitalize them haha

Uh-oh, scraping the barrel already, are we?  I figure it's always a sign of last resort and desperation when someone rolls out the Tulips spiel.  Have you really got nothing better?

Last time I checked, plants don't allow you to send value to anywhere on earth in a censorship-resistant fashion.  Speculators may succumb to "mania" from time to time, but they most certainly aren't the sole consideration and you keep forgetting that.  Seemingly deliberately.  Perhaps all the genuine users of BTC are a tad inconvenient for your narrative? 

a history and real life lesson
bitcoin is deflationary. less are produced over time.. tulips are inflationary more are produced over time. so you cant compare the two

even today people buy and sell tulips, and they make profit from it. tulips today has the same underlying value and values as it did in the 17th century.. its just inflation and the sentiment of the speculative price above the values has changed.. .. go to any garden centre for research, you will find them being sold
yep tulips didnt die 300 years ago..

and by the way.. just a gentle reminder. market price is not intrinsic value..

also the "mania" was not involving regular tulips being sold for house prices.. but a unique breed that only 1-2 were sold for house prices. and millions of other regular tulips sold for normal prices.
the then owner made his money back by producing more from the ones he had. and as inflation suggests when creating more the price/value goes down.
EG if the first ever chicken egg=1chicken and that chicken makes 1000 eggs. you can sell the 1000 eggs for 1000th less each and still break even to your initial cost.

oh and another little hint..in recent years an orchid (a plant) sold for the price of a modern house. so its not just the 17th century one time event that plants sold for house prices only back in the 17th century.. "plant mania" continues on even in recent years.

during a recession especially. people want to store wealth on deflationary(buy to hold/save) and spend wealth on temporary things now on inflationary things. because holding fiat is going to lose them value long term.. holding bitcoin is going to save them value long term

anyways. as to the other points.
as long as bitcoin has utility(function) then there is usefulness and desire. this then has a functional cost of making blocks. which causes people to then mine blocks.
bitcoin would need to have a massive death bug that kills all function for people to give this up.

you will find as millions of people have learned over the last 13 years. is. if there is money to be made. and a competition over that money. the costs increase which in-turn cause the willingness to sell for higher prices plays out.

now some lessons on inflations and deflations..
bitcoins market price is not a factor of value based on a buyers willingness/amount they want to spend. because a user with less fiat can just buy less decimals.. because a seller refuses to give away whole units for less $ cost
(much like the average market order of 2013-17 was $400 which netted people on average 1btc.. )
(much like the average market order of 2020-22 was $400 which netted people on average 0.01btc.. )

peoples regular/average spend has not really changed. but the decimal they get has. because the SELLER refuses to give away whole btc for $400, even if the only money a buyer has on offer is the same ~$400 average
(you notice this when you go to retail stores and see how chocolate bars seem near the same price as a few years ago. but looking closely. the weight of each bar is less. yep multipack snacks seem the same price but you get less snacks per package).. notice how mcdonalds bigmac beef patty has got a little smaller in circumference and thinner but the price looks the same as it did 5 years ago..


a true factor that can affect the economics of less desire of bitcoin is not the market price.. its the transaction fee(utility). if the fee is too much then the utility/desire to use it drops.. so dont think its the market price that will kill bitcoin.. people can just buy decimals.. its infact the transaction fee that can kill utility(excluding a scenario of a unfixable bug that stops utility(less likely scenario))
..
you usually see altnet loyalists shout out how bitcoin is dead, cant scale, wont survive not useful for daily use, too expensive for the unbanked.. but thats because they want people to use their altnet instead and dont care about bitcoin and, well basically they dont understand bitcoins potential or utility in the first place. nor do they know or care about bitcoins values or underlying value. so pretend it has none.. but thats a flaw in their understanding.
..
have a good day doing research.. but please do go to a garden centre and buy a tulip. because i really think you forgot that tulips survived the test of time and that there are some breeds of plants even 300years after the mania you are unsure of, still happening today being sold for high prices. but please do your research about actual details of tulip mania because you have it all wrong and backwards

oh last reminder. the market price is not the intrinsic value.. so please again dont confuse the two. and dont assume because the market price is not the value, foolishly(in your mind) think that it means there is no value.. because there is value. you just have to look for it

So you believe this, but you also believe the price of Tulips in the 1600s is directly applicable to bitcoin. ::)

Is it? Damn! And here's me using it as a currency to buy a huge variety of goods and services for years, both in person and online, from around the world. Should I PM you a list of all the vendors I use so you can email them and tell them that bitcoin isn't a currency after all and it doesn't have any value? Maybe if you could also ask them all to send me all the bitcoin I spent with them back to me again. I'm sure they'll all have absolutely no problem with that after you tell them it's worthless.

NO ONE is pricing their products in Bitcoin and using it as a currency.   When you pay by Bitcoin, it is instantly converted into US DOLLARS that the seller uses.   You can NOT price things in Bitcoin, it is to unstable.

1.   If you were hired  at a job last year, and paid in Bitcoin, and your pay was actually priced in Bitcoin, at a rate of 1 Bitcoin per year, would you still be working ???

2.  If you put your house for sale on the Market in Bitcoin last year, actually priced in Bitcoin, 10 Bitcoins for your house.  Would you sell it today for 10 Bitcoins   ;D

Using Bitcoin as a currency IS A LIE if it is nothing is priced in Bitcoin, the bitcoin is instantly converted to US Dollars, or whatever the currency your country uses.

SORRY, converting your BitCoin to US Dollars to pay for your tesla is NOT bitcoin functioning as a currency.  Even if Tesla does the Bitcoin - US Dollar conversion for you, the PRICE is always a US Dollar amount.

Come on you guys can't take this guy serious, he's was pumping libracoin ffs lol

Completely wrong yet again. Thousands upon thousands of people are using bitcoin as a currency every single day. There are plenty of merchants who price things in bitcoin, and there are plenty of merchants who accept bitcoin directly without converting it to fiat to either hold themselves, pay their staff, pay their supplies, buy goods and services for their business or themselves, and so on. You spewing out nonsense on a forum of something you have zero experience with doesn't change the fact that this is happening around the world every day.

Depends. Where do I live? Venezuela? Zimbabwe? Sudan? Turkey? Bitcoin is definitely preferable to their highly inflationary fiat currencies.

If inflation keeps developing at the rate even most of the Western world is currently facing, you might be forced to add quite a lot of countries to your list :D

So maybe we are rather sooner than later all calculating in Bitcoin instead of USD or EUR! But that won't happen soon I guess as politicians will know their way out at least temporarily through elite status preserving regulations aka Bitcoin's utility suppressing regulations. 

Most merchants do price according to the exchange rate, but that doesn't mean they don't price goods in bitcoin. I only give them bitcoin. They only receive bitcoin. Then, they might pay another merchant with bitcoin. They might need to exchange some for fiat, pay taxes, charges etc., to be complied with the law, but that doesn't change facts. There's a properly operating economy built around bitcoin.

And we're both parties incentivized to accomplish our transaction using bitcoin, because it's cheaper. Various merchants do make a discount if you pay their goods with bitcoin.

A salary of 1 bitcoin per year is incredible for the countries o_e_l_e_o has mentioned. Even at the current "bear market", $20k/year for a country like Nigeria is very high. Their GDP per capita is $2,396.04 as of Dec 31, 2020 (https://www.fxempire.com/macro/nigeria/gdp-per-capita).

And $20k per bitcoin is simply a discount, sorry if you don't see it that way. There will be less than 21 million bitcoin in existence, and just in the US there are about 22 million millionaires (https://www.zippia.com/advice/millionaire-statistics/). There are about 8 billion people on Earth. If bitcoin was meant to be allocated equally, each person would be accounted with less than 0.002625 BTC. Acquiring 1 BTC puts you way above the average.

Russia and Nigeria experience even worse rates, AFAIK.

Yes I will concede that point:   If you live in the absolute worst countries in the world, which are economic basket cases, then Bitcoin is more stable and can actually function as a currency  ;D   In a stable economy like the USA, companies are not PRICING products in bitcoin, they are converting to USD at the moment of sale.

But if Bitcoin has to be compared to the absolute most worthless, unstable FIAT currencies in the world to be attractive, then something is really wrong with Bitcoin.  I would not invest in Venezuela Bolivars, Zimbabwe Dollars, or Bitcoin.  They are all great ways to lose all your money.  There are MUCH BETTER, less risky investments than Bitcoin.

When dunning kruger meets YouTube university.

This won’t age well, when you realize that every fiat currency is based on the same monetary principles as the currencies stated above, the fate the “better” ones they will go to isn’t different. Worthlessness or authoritarianism.

Bitcoin is working exactly as intended, helping people who need it now (especially in countries like mentioned above). It doesn’t need to bend to your impatience, fear or lack of knowledge to do virtue signaling or getting more adoption. People who are into it already know what it’s about.

It’s kinda like really understanding Bitcoin has a natural iq barrier in place, that keeps people like you out. You can’t fake your way in, there’s no way around studying to get it, unlike the sources that you keep mentioning, that just require you to follow someone that sounds smart, instead of learning anything yourself. Learning is an active process, go get at it yourself, you still won’t have to like Bitcoin, but it’s just obvious that you never studied anything about these topics yourself.

Which are?

Have you bought anything in USD lately? Literally every time I go to the supermarket or go to get gas, the prices have all gone up again. USD is simply too unstable to price products in; vendors are obviously pricing based on the value of the goods and services they need to buy and converting to USD.

If you could go ahead a provide a list of these much better investments which have outperformed bitcoin over the last 10 years, that would be great.

Block 0 was mined 4,922 days ago. A quick look at Coinmarketcap shows that for ~556 of those days, bitcoin closed at a price above the current price. This means that bitcoin has been profitable to hold for 88.7% of its life. By comparison, USD has been profitable to hold for exactly 0% of its life. It has never been worth less than it is today, although that's a record that will be broken tomorrow, and the next day, and the next day, and the next day...

Do you have a proof for that? I've sent a lot of bitcoin to heaps of merchants, most of which live in "stable" economies like the US, EU, UK, and I'm sure lots of them don't choose to exchange their bitcoin for fiat at the point of sale. I can look into the chain and confirm it for you, but that'd be just a waste of time. You deliberately avoid to understand it.

Every fiat currency is potentially worthless and unstable. See Russia; strong economy, but shitcoin (https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB). USD is now more rapidly decreasing in value, and so is EUR and GBP. Every nation on Earth is currently experiencing massive inflation, because those who're responsible for the economy cannot be trusted to maintain it, and there are only the willfully ignorant fools like you who still can't see the benefits of bitcoin.

Meanwhile, bitcoin rises by about 180% since the first halving, on average. Probably nothing.

he says, whilst spending months on a bitcoin forum

i have no interest in owning an ant farm or having a sex change.. you can tell because my search history, bookmarks and general browser history show no webpages related to ant farms or genital surgery.

so why are you on a forum of something you have no interest in?

..

i understand your real motives. you bought in first time at the june 2019 hype and regretted it that summer/winter when the price went down.

we can tell because you joined the forum around that date and have been making little hints..

oh and by the way.. i know you bought in since..again.. presumably at another hype near ATH amount of 2020+ because you keep crying when the price goes down..
only someone already highly invest cries when there is discount opportunities to buy in.

im guessing you now want to try and FUD the forum with comments hoping you will be able to push the market price down to autumn 2019 prices again so you can buy back in and average down your investments you made at higher prices.. , but pretending that your not interested in bitcoin, never invested.. but that is a laugh. your emotions are too high about something you pretend to not be invested in.

funny thing is you got very happy about bitcoin in jan 2021 when the price went from $23k up. you were even imagining the price going to $100k.. with smiley faces





.. your too obvious. just admit it you are highly invested and just sad that its the wrong time of year to sell some coins

Yes, when institutional money started to get into Bitcoin, I thought Bitcoin would go up far more than it did.  Bitcoin ran up nicely, just not as much as I and most people here thought it would. 

Bitcoin going down by such a large amount has ENDED the dream of a lot of serious institutional money investing into Bitcoin.  No large institution is going to invest real money into Bitcoin now that it has crashed by more than 66 % in less than a year.

Ponzi Schemes simply do not survive crashes well...  Bitcoin has proven that it will crash along with the stock market in an economic crisis.  Welcome to the new reality.   I am honest and smart enough to change my outlook on Bitcoin based on market conditions, most others here are not emotionally capable of doing that.

1 BTC is equal to 1 BTC without dragging fiat in to the equation but what cannot be denied is that people invested USD$ in to buying Bitcoin and they see their profit or loss margins based on USD$ because 1 BTC = 1 BTC.

The banking conglomerate and governments all over the world will not allow crypto to simply waltz in and take over, it will be a long drawn out process which might allow space for Bitcoin to flourish as a more mainstream utilised commodity.

Because you were speculating. And if most speculate the same thing, it's unlikely to happen.

Uhm, have you taken a look at the chart? I suppose you haven't.

Jan 2010, bitcoin was valuated at $16, a month later at $213, and then it crashed all the way to $70. (-67%)
Nov 2013, bitcoin reached $1,075, and then it crashed to $230. (-78%)
Dec 2017, bitcoin touched a $17,800, and then it crashed to $3,800. (-78%)
Nov 2021, bitcoin at $65,000, and here we are now, crashed to $20,000. (-69%)

Sure, no institution is going to invest "real money" now.  :-\

Okay, three things.

• Ponzi schemes do not survive when they crash. Period.
• When the entire economy is crashing, it's rational for something to be crashing as well.
• We are not in an economic crisis. We've slipped through a deep recession.

i dont think you even know what a ponzi scheme is

ponzi's have 3 elements to it
1. your not buying ponzi shares/assets on some open market. your paying a scammer and he keeps the money. he controls all the shares.
you cant mine new ponzi shares or buy them from someone else or obtain them from selling goods or services.

2. when you want to sell your shares you have to request money from the scammer, you cant just sell your shares to other people. or buy things with it or exchange it for other things away from the scammer.

3. the scammer controls how many shares to offer out or to take back, usually there is no limit on how many can go out, but there is a limit on how many can come back in.. so that he can control how much money leaves his pocket. , basically he uses peters money coming in to pay pauls money going out. where he is only letting paul go out with a smaller amount so that the scammer can keep a bit of peters money

...
bitcoin is nothing like that.

bitcoin is not a pyramid either where a top central person sets up a system that requires more population to join where a percentage of all transfers go back up to the top creator..

however fiat is a pyramid. every payment you make gets taxed which goes to the national treasurer that created fiat
the only way it survives is to try getting more population to use it. or get a limited population to get more to be taxed more by it. . the dollar has for as long as anyone remembers been trying to push more countries to accept dollar as a base currency they need to use. they try to find new ways to tax every transaction. everything from income, asset swaps, sales tax, business sales profits,

the other part is the way they create and distribute new money is flawed in fiat. they dont just hand it out to people that earned it. instead they loan new money out asking the recipient to pay it back to them with a little extra interest on top.
..

bitcoin again is nothing like that their is no central reserve/treasury in bitcoin. their is no down stream game where those above it get % of those below it(no royalty/tax/passive income/loan interest returns) for those above the current holder

..
bitcoin is not a ponzi or a pyramid. bitcoin is an open currency anyone can use, where there are many ways to get in and out freely. many ways to earn it and many ways to spend/sell it. there is no tax that goes to a central treasury where every payment puts money into upstream managers.

there are many ways to get bitcoin. you can sell merchandise for bitcoin. (in my own town i know of 5 people doing just that. and this town is not even one you hear about in media or news events and its not a tourist spot.)

you can mine it.
you can buy it from random people face to face or via exchanges (centralised or decentralised)
you can earn it, via a job or some software games that do "play to earn", heck even some people rent out things in exchange for bitcoin. even things like renting out their forum avatar or footnote space.
people offer services for bitcoin. consultations, advise, technical assistance, physical world repair, manual labour work..

the thing that differentiates bitcoin from fiat is that there is no central reserve keeping 10%+ of every payment(tax treasury)

..
as for your cries in what you describe as "crash".. thats saying you are invested at a price higher then the market "crash" events.. someone wanting to invest(future tense) would be happy and excited to see low prices. its discount. heck even though im already highly invested. but i also see the benefit of discount events. i dont cry about it. .. but thats because i dont see myself as at a loss.

these events i call dips, corrections, discount and finding the new bottom. are opportunities, even for someone already invested. the new bottom of each halving cycle is more than the last. meaning if you can buy at the new bottom. and hold for the next cycle you will not lose.

the prospective to have is not to think of the ATH as the 'value' a price should stay at where by any dip 'crash' is seen as a loss.. but instead, look at the bottoms as the 'value' and if the price comes back down from a temporary overpriced premium. take the opportunity before the next deflationary rise cycle

i already had enough hoard to see me good for rest of my life. but even recently when the market tipped below $30k i bought more. and when it tipped below $20k i bought even more. these discounted prices in comparison to the 2020-2022 era average is a good time to buy, so i did. no regrets, no cries, even when the price i paid this year is higher than the hoard i got from many years ago.

Are you naive enough to think "professionals" only make safe bets?  How do you think the global financial crisis happened in the first place?  Any time they sniff a potential for profit, they'll come crawling back.  They've done that every time the market has dropped and they'll continue doing it.

And why can't you move beyond the fact that Bitcoin is more than just a speculative asset?  Sure, lots of people are speculating.  But they're missing out on the real benefits.  Perhaps you're too busy worshiping the fools at the Fed to understand the real point of Bitcoin.  No one is going to take you seriously until you can, at the very least, demonstrate your understanding of why we see value in it, even if you choose not to.

---

Said the troll who genuinely believes Bitcoin stopped being Bitcoin in 2017 and everything after that was "fake consensus".  You hate post-SegWit Bitcoin even more than this clown does.  ::)

Don't act like you're better than HardFacts.  You're more alike than you care to admit.  Peas in a pod.  You're both willing to distort the truth in pursuit of you misguided agendas.  Neither of you seem to comprehend freedom of choice.  You're both annoying, obtuse and belligerent.  Two trolls, albeit with differing goals in mind.

Bitcoin isn't finished going up. You are just too short sighted to see it. As I told you when you were preaching doom and gloom back in 2020, come back in a few years and zoom out on the charts and lets see where we are.

Simply repeating this nonsense that you've made up with absolutely zero evidence doesn't make it true. Every institution which invested in to bitcoin was 100% aware of the price volatility and still chose to invest. This dump is not a surprise to anyone except you it seems. You honestly believe that large financial institutions got to the multi-billion or even trillion dollar valuations they hold by buying at the top and then panic selling every dip? Lol.

Good thing bitcoin's not a Ponzi then. That probably explains why it has survived every other crash in its history.

Not only him many others who don't understand it and the market working start speaking shit about it when the prices are down as we have seen  bitcoin obituaries for the hundred times  (https://www.bitcoinisdead.org/).The $3k bottom back in 2017-18 period was dead end for many people and we see lot of panic sell but what happened after that? Where is bitcoin at current rates even after falling 70-80% of value -$20k so if he could manage to see the charts this question would have not come up.I feel pity for those who tried to give away these statements when bitcoin is going down as they don't see US dollar losing its value over time and every market hitting hard but only bitcoin is option for them.When you will see after few years then regretting not investing at these prices will be only option left so be optimistic or don't invest in.

Which company your are talking about exactly like MicroStrategy holds 129,218 BTC at the time and have not sold any of them and CEO Saylor is preety much optimistic about its growth and have said investing more at these dips.Speaking about El Salvador they are also holding onto the investment and Tesla have also not sold any of its investment so don't know what exactly you are saying about.

https://i.ibb.co/vhDN9Fs/Screenshot-20220627-164420-01.jpg

They just speak what they have to without even doing market research for it and they are generally from those categories who have lost investing in bitcoin and couldn't hold during dips and panic sell so now telling others institutions are not holding bitcoin is just one of their myths.

Good thing bitcoin's not a Ponzi then. That probably explains why it has survived every other crash in its history.
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They will simply beleive that shitcoin is better and have the mindset bitcoin is ponzi scheme but they don't understand how decentralisation actually works and support of bitcoin is due to it's working and technical background so it could not be a ponzi scheme but there's no fun in explaining them.

Honestly in most nations you would still be working for 1 bitcoin and be fine. Yes, you wouldn't be making a bank in most western nations, but you would still survive. If you are making 20k a year in the USA, that is not ideal and you would be poor, but you wouldn't be the worst situation person, you would still be surviving, and it is a bit over minimum wage. Hell if you have another roommate that also works and makes that much, for a 40k a year, a household could stand, noodles and ramen but it could stand.

This is one of the richest nations in the world, if you look at other places like UK or Germany, it would be about the similar issue. The lower you go, the better life you would have. I am not even making 20k a year, I can tell you that much, and I am middle income in my nation, none of my friends make as much as I make, I am richest among my friends, and yet I am not making 20k a year.

doomad. go cry in your little corner again. you think that LN is bitcoin2.0 post 2017
LN is a pegged altnet. it is not bitcoin. no bitcoins ever leave the bitcoin network. no extra bitcoins are created to be used on an altnet. (learn this fact or it wil hit you hard when you realise it later), what you play with is not bitcoin. but after 5 years you are still yet having issues learning this..
your altnet has to have more msats in the combined network than the amount that payments a sender needs to send/able to be made by the network(one of many flaws)

the altnet you support, which has no consensus at all,  has the worse security structure and bugs list compared to some of the sidechains that recently collapsed. yep your favoured altnet you pretend is bitcoin is the one that can  fractional reserve(EG thor turbo), and also as a separate flaw, lose its 1sat:1000msat peg VERY easily. and most novice users of your altnet wallets wont even notice it happening until they closed out their channel and realised their loses on the lack of return to bitcoin
dont protect your silly altcoin. or pretend your altnet is bitcoin.

no where in my posts about bitcoin in this topic did i even reference things like segwit either. im talking about the fundamental function of the bitcoin network. not the recent tx formats used as gateways to altnets.
your response quoted in this post has nothing to do with the topic. you are just making personal attacks and insults. which is why you are the troll. dont make another emotional post, find something meaningful to say. something about bitcoin and how it has utility(i mean bitcoin, not an opportunity to advertise your altnet of pegged msat or the features that give you access to your altnet)

im talking about the fundamental features of BITCOIN. the ones that stood the test of time since 2009
such as the difficulty that give it a different creation path compared to say PoS, where PoW has actual value and cost involved in its creation, where by its not just 'printing money' (fiat)
im talking about the limited supply of the block reward and halvings. and the rules that allow accounting and validating the coins in circulation..  that is the difference compared to the structure of altnets and many altcoins and fiat that just create units at no cost/limit

there is a major difference of the fundamental function and utility of BITCOIN. compared to the features that work with your altnet.. if you cannot tell the difference. then take some time to work it out.

As always, posting flawed analogies, fractional reserve with turbo - wow.

Here's some main differences:

• Reversing an opening-turbo-channel transaction affects only those who use turbo. In contrast, fractional reserve system affects all fiat users.
• No "Lightning Network operator" can lend money of an unconfirmed opening-turbo-channel transaction.
• You can verify the existence of opening-turbo-channel transactions and choose to not transact with people who consider RBF-enabled unconfirmed transactions settled. On the other hand, fractional reserve is entirely opaque.
• Fractional reserve requires faith.

Oh. And turbo is just a drop in the bucket called Lightning Network.

reversing? you mean reserving. here is the thing though.. the payments that go through channels during routing. are not bitcoin transactions. they are messages in a different format that are using units of measure called msat.
someone can easily use a edited wallet which allow them to change the features of that LN channels and get its customers to download that wallet. where by it is able to easily change the pegging of 1:1000 to 1:100 or the oposite 1:10,000 thus when user see's he is sending 3000msat in the gui thinking he is sending 3sat. underneath it he could be sending 30sat or 0.3sat

this mechanism can actually affect more then those in the channel.

if people did have this wallet..
his GUI might see that he was sending 3000msat(converted: 3sat). all chanels using that software might seen events of 3000msat.. BUT.. but underneath he was sending a signature of 30,000msat(converting to 30sat later). which the middleman then sends 3000msat(converting to 0.3sat(round to zero). and vice versa. where by although they all see 3000msat passing around, and for many days they are locked in..  thinking the msat amounts are right.. the rounding conversions underneath in the raw commits they dont see.. can all be different. all the way through the network of hops using the software.
and they all only realise it if they were to exit LN.. (something LN nerds dont want because they prefer people to stay in LN and just "rebalance" internally)
in bitcoin you cant do that. its easy to spot it and bitcoin audits it. unlike the altnet you want to defend that has no consensus or network wide audit. plus it would get worse for LN security if they add the mimble wimble feature to completely hide value in the commits. no way to manually see a raw commit and work out the value then. your then too reliant on the code calculating and well miscalculating amounts for display purposes

now do me one favour and ask yourself absolutely honestly.. whenever you accepted/autopiloted a route for someone else or a payment out. have you always looked behind the GUI to find the commit to ensure the commits raw data match what the GUI shows. or do you just "trust" the gui is working as expected when you press a button to agree to accept a payment forward or press the autopilot to do it without your manual involvement in accepting every event.

think about that.
i dont need your response(the answer is obvious) nor do i want your defensive verbal insults. just ponder the thought.

and now lets get back on topic without the usual drama cause by you lot defending an altnet thats not bitcoin

Idk, what if for another farmer it will cost $0.30 to grow enough wheat for a loaf of bread, and for another bakery it will cost $0.05 to bake the dough into bread? What's the "intrinsic value" of a loaf of bread then?

I'm not an economist, but I still think that the "value" of something is what people are willing to pay for it at the moment. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

in retail. the buying team and sales team of retailers. do not guage bread VALUE on middle PRICES. they gauge it on the lowest possible amount. meaning the cheapest most efficient farmer my example was not based on some middle priced farmer you can then "what about".. it was based on the bottomline cost farmers/bakers refuse to sell below because its impossible to make bread for less
yes the retail warehouse buying team may not get that rate, and may need to PAY more. but what they pay is the speculative PRICE. . the underlying value is always below price.


the PRICE(retail/market)... ill say this three times PRICE PRICE PRICE. is what people are willing to pay for it at the moment. as thats what they pay.. at that moment it is X and at another moment it is Y. its speculative, unpredictable.. thats why the PRICE is volatile ..

but the PRICE.. is not value.
ill say it three times.. the PRICE is not VALUE... the price is NOT VALUE... the price is NOT VALUE.

the concept is very simple...
FORGET THE RANDOM RATES and speculative stuff of whimsy and sentiment and profit.. of the PRICE
thats all just speculation, the foam ontop of the latte. the bubbles at the top of the bath water.. the visible part of an iceburg above water..

look for the bits beneath that floating stuff at the top. find the bottom.. and i know your hinting "what about" stuff in the middle.. well if your looking in the middle. you have not found the bottom yet.

when i say $0.50 for bread im not using that number as the middle or top. im talking about the bottom. the lowest price any farmer can farm for... there is no "what about" below it in this scenario.
so forget thinking im talking about the middle or tops when i use examples of the underlying value

like right now bitcoin mining costs between $0.03 to $0.38 per kwh in electric prices, where places like japan are the highest. and slavic nordic countries are the lowest.
this is not about you "what about japan 0.38". or "what about america 0.12 what about"..


its about finding the ultimate bottom.. the actual bottom cost they refuse and impossible to sell below.. . concentrating on the low/bottom
forget the 0.38 or the 0.12 "what abouts" of electric.. find the 0.03 of electric.. and then math out the actual bottomline cost.

the random sentiment and variance above the bottom is all the many possible factors that build speculation.. but if you just stop thinking about all that and find the bottom cost. the cost no one can go below. then you have found the underlying value.

yes if things get more efficient but the hashrate competition doesnt rise to compensate, the underlying value can go down. but not to the same volatility/extent/temporality as the speculative sentiment of variables that are above that that are the market retail price.

..
if you are finding number cheaper than other numbers.. take the bottom number.. .. its simple

You could resell a loaf of bread if you want and maybe make a profit.  You could also eat your loaf of bread if you do not want to re-sell it.


What would you do with your bitcoin if you could never sell it    ???    NOTHING    That means it has zero intrinsic value.  The only value that Bitcoin has is what some greater fool will pay for it.

And so is fiat. There's nothing you can do with 1, 10, 100 million USD if nobody is willing to exchange goods for it, but I don't see you call this a scam. Humans appear to be satisfied with money, even if they can't intrinsically utilize it.

If the "greater fool" gains censorship-resistance, pseudo-anonymity, minimum costs, nearly-instant speed of transaction confirmation across the world, zero-cost divided possession of property and an established monetary policy with a scheduled inflation, he might not be a fool. He gains none of those in electronic fiat, and half neither on physical cash.

What if the situation never comes where there is no one willing is willing to buy? What if the buyers and demand increase every passing year and you keep on dreaming that one day no one will be able to sell. bitcoins.

You are calling a bitcoin buyer a fool, while one day you will realize that those who do not have bitcoins are bigger fools.

And still your loaf of bread is terrible money and will get bad if you don’t use it in some productive way. That’s why it’s not used as money.

While Bitcoin is just amazing at being money, and that’s enough for being just money. How many times did you use fiat for other things than money? You can’t eat, drink or do anything with it. And yet still want it more than a loaf of bread, that’s the irony. You don’t even understand money and would still prefer it over an actual economic resource. Because you understand that money can acquire you any economic resource you want, and that’s the purpose of money. Enabling universal indirect trade.

There’s a difference between an economic resource and money. Money is non-productive by nature, while economic resources are. This means money is used to acquire, trade economic resources and make production happen, but not used to produce something directly. While economic resources are used in the opposite way. The good that can fulfill the function of money best, will become the dominant money, it’s that simple. It doesn’t matter if it’s usable in different ways itself or not, for its success as money.

I don't think that this crash is different from previous crash few years ago in my opinion, at least we still see some altcoins pumping few days back despite the fact that the crash was there, in the previous bear crash few years ago, there is no altcoins that can pump immensely when bitcoin is down, and lots of altcoin tend to pick up faster, if you look at the chart of some altcoins few days ago, some has up to six green daily candle example is $comp, yfi and some other altcoins. This crash aint same as the previous ones

Lol your user name “hardfacts” is pretty funny considering most of everything I’ve seen you post is total bullshit. As a financial advisor by trade, I can tell you that you’re wrong about money printing and it having a big effect on stocks. You really don’t have any idea what you’re talking about.  Bitcoin doesn’t need intrinsic value. Period.

BTC will be BTC no matter what. It has been through many things, and yet here it stands. You can say whatever you can. Smart people will just buy the DIP.

People can (and do) use Bitcoin for things other than money.  You can send a transaction to yourself in order to permanently record a message in the Bitcoin blockchain (https://decrypt.co/55642/the-5-best-secret-messages-hidden-on-the-bitcoin-blockchain) which can never be deleted or censored.  Name another form of money which can do that.  

You keep focusing on bitcoin (the unit of account), but conveniently forget all about Bitcoin (the network, the protocol, the blockchain) and you can't use the network/protocol/blockchain without owning the the unit of account.  If you don't incorporate those things into your understanding, you will never comprehend why we see value and you cannot.  

if you think the only thing of bitcoin is to buy/sell it on an exchange. thats your error.
people can mine it, and work for it. and sell and buy goods and services for it

heck there are people on this forum getting paid in bitcoin to moderate this forum and well the obvious ones that spend their time advertising businesses and altnets.

so imagine a world without a btc-fiat exchange.. bitcoin still has function.
miners give it to employees as a wage, merchants sell goods and produce for it. and pays their employees. the employees then buy goods and services with it... oh wait thats called a currency.. wow i just described bitcoin as being a currency.. amazing.. right..

bitcoin is more then an investment its a currency. before bitcoin even had a exchange market price. people were buying pizza, alpaca socks, cupcakes and even drugs with it.
wiki was accepting donations. the list goes on. all before things like mtgox really got established.

even before that bitcoin was used for multiple things. you would be surprised what you can do with bitcoin.

even as a investment. there is more you can do with it then just holding value. you can organise that value without the need of bank managers and lawyers. by this i mean things like multisig to put it into escrows, or family trusts or off shore storage. split it up and store it in different keys where those keys are in different formats(engraved, on paper, on flashdrives, in hardware wallets. made into seed phases, list goes on

but hey. if you think that if the exchanges disappear bitcoin has no features.. you have a big lesson to learn.
face to face swaps were even a thing before exchanges. so that will continue too

Good points, but he doesnt even get the basics yet. That the success of money isnt dependent on its uses outside of being money. All of these Bitcoin haters keep bringing up what they cant use it for and that this is what makes it worthless, but its just foolish to believe this. Its nice that people can wipe their ass with fiat or make jewlery out of gold, but this is not what gives these things its monetary value. There is a monetary value that is independent from any other use case. Gold has a monetary premium and would be worth way less, if it wasnt for its monetary properities alone. They should maybe study the properties behind money and then it becomes more clear. Or maybe its just too abstract to get for most people and they keep mixing things up.

Actually, making jewellery is one the things that does give monetary value. If gold was a dead rock, with boring grey color, it'd not fit to you as it does now. Being pretty does satisfy need. There are far more clever ways to utilize it essentially, though.

I think bitcoin haters exist solely because of:

This logic has been debunked so many times. Any currency is worth whatever the free market will pay for it. No one is inclined to give you any amount of goods per any unit currency unless that currency is pegged to something inherently valuable. Gold standard is long gone so that isn't going to work. I suppose you believe that currency has inherent value because the government sustains that value? You happen to have more faith in the system than any other rational person. Record inflation rates from COVID money printing in nearly every currency, and these are the people you trust?

Thanks for your honesty at this point, but as we can still see it is more about preferences. When you hire a graphic designer or developer here on the forum, it is usually denoted in USD per hour in converted into a certain crypto. No doubt about what you said, there are lots of countries where 20k a year would put you even in an amazing position. I am not sure though in how far people are willing to seal contracts denoted in Bitcoin per year and in how far there is infrastructure in the aforementioned countries to facilitate this type of contract. It still comes down to speculation. When would Elon Musk accept one Bitcoin for a Tesla when it was at 70,000 USD? Only when he thinks that Bitcoin has the potential to go up. So there is still some type of implied speculation in most transactions within the Bitcoin economy.

I agree that what you mentioned fits needs, but i would argue that it fits them outside the core needs of money. Maybe it can spark some interest and help this good to become more popular and easier to trade with. But then after this, it depends on how good it performs as money to succeed for being used as money. Gold is way more valuable than fiat and yet we still ended up with fiat smh. So i looked at the whys.

In my mind i use the criteria:

Most saleable good(easiness of tradebility with a good)
Store of Value - (Scarcity, durability)
Medium of exchange - (Acceptability, Portability)
Unit of Account - (Divisibility, Fungibility)

Gold lacks so hard in portability and divisibility that it becomes so hard to use it as money. Now if you make jewellery out of gold it becomes even worse as money, because it looses more fungibility additionally.

That’s why im arguing that even when a good can be used as money/ something else at the same time, doing so would hurt it in the area you’re not intending to use it for. So in my mind i separate the two by use case. Jewellery isn’t money and my gold bar/coin is money, even tho they’re both gold, they suit different needs better. But people could do this however they prefer, but these core properties i mentioned above definitely matter for the use as money.

Because Gold lacks so hard for regular usage, people had to find an easier way to do trade. You can’t even easily divide gold for smaller payments for example. So they started to use Paper, that was first backed by gold. Then the paper was used solely as money itself, because there was flaws in the gold standard.(i won’t go in deeper now)

Now we’re going into next era and the paper and everything else is started to being traded digitally, but the old system doesn’t really fit into this natively. And Fiat itself is not a system that can even survive without constant intervention, more control and more extreme and more extreme inequality. It’s a weak fragile form of money, the debt based money creation makes it a worse store of value with everytime it’s used.

So now we have something like Bitcoin coming up, that is superior to gold and fiat in every property mentioned above except acceptability, but we know acceptability grows with adoption. We have additional features like censorship resistance, decentralization, transaction finality that just fit way better to money that is used digitally, that actually makes trade easier in this environment, we shouldn’t forget that this is the core function of money. Fiat makes trade harder everyday and is tanking the economy in the process.

It’s native internet money, not an afterthought that doesn’t really fit like fiat. I think that just by basic economical money principles, Bitcoin is the next logical advancement of money. It can fit all the needs you could think of, better, it doesn’t matter if it can be used for something else or not, in my opinion.

That’s why im making a clear separation between money and economic resource, a good needs to specialise in one of the two. Bitcoin could be useless at anything else and would still win the money game by a lot, and yet i never keep hearing them mentioning anything about this.

If you check these criteria out, you will also notice quickly that Bitcoin beats any altcoins by a lot in this, even tho it has less features. Fundamentals just matter more in my opinion. It defeats the altcoin narrative.

I think bitcoin haters exist solely because of:
It could be, it would be nice to hear HardFacts honest reasoning for thinking Bitcoin is worthless.

this is where people need to separate PRICE, VALUE, VALUES
to understand how each impacts each other

golds values(features and benefits give it desire/demand)
gold value(underlying all this, is the underlying basic cost of acquiring it no one wants to sell below)
gold price is the value+values(underlying cost plus speculative variable of the desire/demand)

golds price is not its store of value. golds store of value is less then the gold price
golds store of value is about $900 right now whilst golds price is about double that.
the double(premium) of the price is a variable caused by the speculative whimsy of sentiment about the desire and demand based on what peoples values(sentiment of features/benefits) are.

..
now whats creates the value(underlying cost).
if no one wants it... miners wont bother mining it. meaning that they dont put much money into it.  

when something has a low store of value but a high speculative price.. that is a BUBBLE
when the price is low but the value is high. that is CHEAP/DISCOUNT/great price:value..

the value(economic amount) is not the same as the value(features,benefits utility)
what makes something a good currency. is its utility/values(features/benefits). the more features it offers the more benefits it offers. the more used it will become and more desired.. which then impacts the value and price

money(sub category of currency) has specific values it has to achieve

as for the criteria used by previous poster.. id tweak that abit to:

common - (accessible and acceptable by broad community)
Store of Value - (underlying cost no one sells below)
Medium of exchange - (commonly agreed to a price (variable/separate to value) for other goods/services/labour/assets)
Unit of Account - (Divisibility, Fungibility, easily transferable)

'scarcity' is not a feature of "money" because the most common money is fiat.. and thats not scarce.

i know previous is trying to say he doesnt see fiat as being real money and hasnt been since de-pegging the gold standard.. but if enough people accept it as common then it becomes their money, even if its no longer scarce

Lmao the amount of bs this guy is trying to put into my mouth is insane, saying things i didnt even said. Fiat is real money, an ideal money would fit all the properties i mentioned above, but no form of money did so far. And it has nothing to do with the gold standard. Can you even read or are you mentally challenged in some way, or just some weird psychopath? Fiat has its unique problems, gold has them too. But now for the first time the money problem could actually be fixed with Bitcoin. You’re a fool if you think money can’t have different forms and characteristics that separate them and make one form more suited over the other.

It has nothing to do with fiat, Internet professor.

Store of value - Scarcity(Supply relative to other goods), Durability(No loss in functionality with repeated use)


Medium of Exchange - Acceptability(Used and accepted by others), Portability(Easily moveable across distances)

Unit of Account - Divisibility(Easily dividable into smaller units), Fungibility(1 unit is the same as the other)

These are the common definitions, not the bs you mentioned.

i know exactly what you said.
but when you shake your head at the choice of fiat vs gold being money or not..  means that YOU think gold should have been  more common used as money...

this moment here show your hidden emotion of wanting to think gold is/was in your mind more (ideal) money than fiat buy shaking your head to the reality that went against your secret opinion.

yes you then tried to explain off the shake your head to try to consolidate /change your mind of your secret opinion of why you shouldnt be shaking your head. by trying to understand why fiat is actually treated more like money then gold.

but yea its obvious you preferred if people treated gold more commonly. you just trying to justify to yourself the reason to change your mind.
however by you slipping in the "scarcity" criteria. shows your mind is still leaning back towards (bias in favour of) still wanting think gold is better (IDEAL) money in your mind

yes you mention it doesnt fit your criteria perfect and you call out the flaws of both. but you head shake and slips in of scarcity reveal your real secret preference

my goal was to see that your still bias in favour of a scarce money being ideal money. and give you a clearer idea of what others see as money.
scarcity is not part of money criteria. and common acceptance is the main one.

as for your definition of store of value.. . no you described the sentiment of values...
values(sentiment of feature) and value(economic amount) are different things. ones a feature, ones an economic amount.

store of value is an economic amount

It doesn’t, i never even said this, it is a better store of value, doesn’t have the inflation problems and yet it failed as money. That’s all i said. If one of the best store of values in history, failed as money like this, it might be worth looking into why. Fiat is better except in the store of value aspect. Maybe you don’t look outside that much, but we’re experiencing one the highest inflations since a long time at the moment, so any sane person would get that reference. That fiat is a terrible store of value and not a sustainable form of money in its current form. And requires trust to work, so it won’t ever work for everyone.

You officially need a psychiatrist, but i wouldnt want any person to have to deal with this. I literally said fiat replaced gold, that the money that makes trade easier/ more efficient wins.


https://www.seekingtherapy.com/online-therapy/

You’re welcome.

Please just don’t reply to any of my posts in the future and i won’t reply to yours either, it’s the best way to go forward.

You are VERY WRONG...   US Dollars has the assets and the full force of the US Government, Its assets / Military / law behind it, so there is some backing even if it is not enough....  Even with all this advantage, fiat currencies eventually go to zero anyways.

Bitcoin has NONE of this behind it, Bitcoin is worse and weaker than FIAT, it is nothing more than a Crypto / Ponzi Scheme.   NOTHING backs Bitcoin but what some greater fool will pay for it.  No one has come up with any use case for Bitcoin when the day comes that people will not pay for it anymore  :-X

The Crypto world is even worse, it is Ponzi schemes built on top of Ponzi schemes.  We are already starting to see the very first stages of various crypto schemes blow up...

You said it yourself. There's something forcing you to treat it as valuable. If you don't, and so does every person of the nation, it's a worthless pile of paper notes.

False. Bitcoin is backed by all the goods and services people are willing to exchange with it. Every new merchant is a new asset for the community, and every new merchant prefers being paid in a free, cheap, censorship-resistant and private type of money wherein he's in complete control rather than one that's opaque, weak, inefficient, censoring and provably fallible.

But, a ponzi scheme:

• does have promised high returns.
• does have misleading statements.
• is completely obscure.
• once it crashes, it never recovers.

Bitcoin meets no such criteria.

But, you're on a bitcoin forum, talking about bitcoin, in the Bitcoin Discussion board. If you want to state your opinion about cryptocurrencies in general, acknowledge that you're going off-topic.

 Advantages? You need one of the most corrupt organisations in history to enforce this thing, that will go to 0 anyways. Does it sound sound natural if it was really a sustainable working system? This is a sign of poor design, not an advantage.

Wouldn’t an ideal money be used voluntarily? Because it could store everyone’s wealth better, acts as a worldwide medium of exchange, and is a better unit of account. Being beneficial to everyone and making trade easier for the economy on a whole. You don’t need to put a gun on someone’s head if you’re really offering them something beneficial, it’s the opposite you put a gun on their head if you want them to do something that is against their own will/ interest/ benefit. If it was beneficial to them they would start to use it voluntarily, after they understood it. In fiat they don’t even teach most of the population how it works. Coincidence or is it better for fiat if no one actually understands how it works? You’re literally supposed to not understand how it works, just use it and then shut up. And if you don’t they force you. Does this indicate an advantage, or something that is wrong with the thing they designed?

Something i noticed is that Bitcoin haters tend to be conformists that love to be dominated/ want their life dependent on authorities.

If it was weaker than fiat, so how did it survive everything so far? Against the organization you mentioned above. It didn’t need to put a gun on anyones head to survive and yet still did survive and is thriving. So how?

Nah, you should come up with a reason why people won’t pay for it anymore. Im waiting.

So you were saying about no big institutions are going to invest in bitcoin with prices going down around 70% ? But don't if you are active on the market watch and seeing how big players are taking advantage of these dips because they are smart to play with money and take returns from them but on the other side you always miss the opportunity to do so and blame bitcoin for it.

To contrary what you expected MicroStrategy has invested another $10 million to acquire additional 480 bitcoins to their reserves


So do market research about what you are writing and will advise you to read and have technical working of bitcoin and why people are investing in it and using this financial freedom tool with complete decentralisation and you will come to know the difference between legit and Ponzi schemes also.

what is forgotten here is that its not a "coming down" from a stable/supported higher number (AKA crash) its actually a correction and stabilisation from going up very high the previous year from an unexpected amount that was not backed up by any underlying support

try to remember that the $70k was not the "norm" it was not the stable number that should have remained
the $70k was the premium temporary event, it was not the expectation

the expectation in 2020 of what 2021+ would bring was the $20k(based on the events of 2017-18) the $70k in 2021 was the exception..

VERY GOOD EXAMPLE  ;D

1.  Michael Saylor LIED about his Bitcoin gains multiple times on TV.  Michael Saylor Quoted his first major purchase price and called Bitcoin his best investment instead of admitting the investment was a 30 % LOSS, over 1 BILLOIN DOLLARS at the time.   Who needs to LIE to investors and the public to pump up his investment ??? 

2.  MicroStrategy is NOT, NOT major institutional money.  They are a small fish in a very big sea.    The fact that you think MicroStrategy is " intuitional money " shows complete macro economic ignorance on your part.

3.  Micro Strategy borrowed to purchase its bitcoin, and will have a MARGIN CALL soon, and be forced to sell its Bitcoin at a huge loss.

IMPORTANT PREDICTION:   You and many others here will not let reality get in the way.  When MicroStrategy is bankrupt, you will be full of apologetic excuses.  :D :D :D   

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F77aa8e15-6a63-4f81-9daa-676bdfd7303e_3486x1952.png

first purchase price was at ~$11.65k each.. hmm. seems he is doing well from that first deal

Exactly, Michael Saylor is doing great from the first deal, sounds really good doesn't it   ;D  You could sucker in a lot of fools with that statement....

The LIE is when Michael Saylor told investors and the public in an interview that MicroStrategy is doing great on the first amount of Bitcoin purchased at near 11,000...  But FAILING to disclose that his overall cost averaged investment is near 30,000 price point, and this his total Bitcoin investment is now at more than a 30 % LOSS, more than a billion dollar LOSS.

Franky1 comment is typical of the mental gymnastics, and downright dishonesty of most people in this forum   :-X

WARNING for those reading that are rational investors that want accurate information.  When you see dishonesty and denial like this, do not walk away, RUN away from anything these type people are trying to sell.

hard facts major issue is that he thinks that the price he bought in at was where bitcoins supported and stable value was and that it then "crashed" unexpectedly(to him).. he thought it could/should have only gone higher.. and only ever gone higher

he does not realise prices can go up and down. its a waiting game.. not an instant win get rich quick thing..
no one gets to buy in at the perfect bottom and sell at the perfect top.. no one is that lucky. or psychic. FACT

but im going to emphasise this. he thinks that when the price was at the top he thought that was the stable supported number where the chances of crashing correcting down to the amount that it did, were very small.. not realising that the top was not supported and the chances of correcting down were significantly high chance.

what he does not realise is that the ATH was the PREMIUM .. the TOP. the temporary unexpected exception.. and that the price is now settling back down to the cheap value it should be at

he does not realise that prices are not predictable and they do go up and down.. somewhere between the top and bottom and no one can be a psychic to buy in at the perfect bottom and sell out at the perfect top. so what they do is buy in when they think its reasonable to buy in, accepting the risk:reward balance of their choice.. and WAIT, whether it be the next current cycles speculative hype(if they are lucky) or wait for the next cycle of a deflationary currency raise of the supported bottom to influence the value of the market to which then influences and brings the next cycles prices higher..  to sell.

hardfacts has the dis-illusion that when someone buys, they 'want' the price to go up after their buy. he doesnt realise there is an equal seller that 'wants' the price to go down after the sell. he doesnt realise that there are other people, thousands/millions with other price points on both sides. whereby the markets fluctuate due to this diverse mindset of many buyers and sellers sentiments at many price points between the top and bottom.

now for my funny thought part..
i think what hardfacts has got confused with. is that he was actually watching a music video when he should have been researching bitcoin/economics/markets. because i think when hardfacts was NOT researching economics/markets/ and basic trends, he was instead listening to "Yazz - the only way is up" and that song got stuck in his mind and influenced his buying decision at a higher price than this month.

maybe now is the point he does start researching economics.. or if he prefers listening to music videos.. try "Take That - patience"

Alright, first off, Thank you for taking time to explain all of it with such thoroughness.

Can you please say what's in your opionion is the ultimate bottom for BTC? Yeah, I know it will be just your opinion, not a financial advice, but still it would be interesting to know your opinion on this matter.


Good point, mate! I was thinking on replying him, but then I read your reply. I couldn't do it better. :)

there are alot of stuff to go through..
but the value of a possible bottom can change not as violently as the price. but the underlying value can and does change.

some examples of factors that can change it in a downward direction
EG (extreme catastrophic event scenario(unlikely))
 if all hashrate was to die off today by a majority amount, for instance back to CPU hash mining speeds. where by costs go back to pennies. it would take time for the difficulty alterations to reflect that hashrate drop meaning those remaining mining would still have costs for a long while above pennies. it wont be an overnight 'zero' effect, it would take time even in a hashrate drop of magnitude scenario

EG in reasonable presumed normal events this change happens alot less.. unless alot of people look at the same metrics and then become the cause of changing it.

EG by giving out a ultimate bottom value.. below the price.. just causes people to react.. EG
shorters think although the price is higher then that number now.. that lower number can be achieved. so they sell to put a ask in at lower price.. thus causing a new dip..

also inefficient miners react to a dip by deciding to either get efficient to compete at that new lower level.sending the value number on a new direction..
 or drop off.. which can cause more reward for the remaining asics = more profit= more selling opportunity. again causing a dump. sending the number in a different direction

..

so all i will say is based on all miners on the planet. from iceland to japan range of costs.
those in japan would love to buy coin and hate to mine it. as their costs to mine are up neat the ATH 2021 level
so buying for them is extremely cheap option.
for the most efficient miners. they are not making huge gains. there is not much margin left right now. they are mining to hold or only selling off old coins from years back that are still in high gain area.. they are not selling coins mined this year while making huge profits off them

the PRICE inbetween that is speculative is in the cheap very valuable range right now its not in the premium


so calculate the value window for yourself and just gauge where the price is in regards to a simple "is it in cheap range near bottom or is it premium in range of top". just so you have an idea of if you want to buy or not.

the answer is.. the price is not at the $70k premium and so it must be cheap.
..
as for wanting spoonfed answer to an exact bottom VALUE. for emphasis: the bottom VALUE can move. due to many factors. as soon as a number is seen by a majority.. it would in fact end up being the cause of shifting that number.
so any number given, is outdated as soon as its given.

but right now, bar any catastrophy of a major code bug or world wide power outage, etc.. the price is in the very good very cheap value range near the bottom

^^The reason why there are so many people who just listen to other people is a bit more about human nature. We always feel ingrained to pick a leader, even if you get like 10 people together then you pick a leader. The human nature is to look up to someone, and let "some" of your freedoms go and be decided by someone else.

This is a horrible knowledge that many would argue against, and even prove revolutionaries as examples, but even there we have leaders. Hence, the idea of "letting all the work go, relax, sit down watch some netflix shows and allow another dude to decide on my financial future" seems easy and natural to many people in the world.

VERY WISE observation !!!   Unfortunate but true....

Well surely that same principle could be applied to many different financial models.... Sell it to make a profit or keep it. What is new in that?

You are wrong.... bitcoin does have as much intrinsic value as you would like to put on it. For example, what would you do with your $10, £10 or €10 notes if you could never sell them? By you alluding to bitcoin being some sort of ponzi scheme clearly indicates you have a very limited understanding of what bitcoin is.

Thank you. That's what I think too. If we discard very unlikely events, we can say that we are there, near the new bottom now. It doesn't mean it's time to sell everything and buy BTC. I bet some people can ignore Bitcoin completely during the next couple of years, and still be doing OK. Like you can ignore Kindle, and think that it will never be as good as paper books, but the reality is, it is better, the future of reading  belongs to it, same as the future of money belongs to Bitcoin.

I share some of your skepticisms regarding leaders, but I still doubt that you are describing people in any kind of an appropriate way because there are leaders in all kinds of capacities, and sometimes there are needs to have one person be responsible for a certain area or activity, but that does not mean that s/he leads in all areas merely because s/he is chosen as a leader..   

Somethings need leaders and other things do not, but if you do not have any leader and there are discretionary matters, it might not really matter so much which of the choices are made, but a choice needs to be made, even if there are discretionary matters that are presented to the leader or the group.. and we cannot have everyone trying make all decisions and even decisions for the group's interests.

Another matter relates to decisions regarding whether to uphold decisions that had already been made in previous times or to make changes to existing systems, sometimes there are values to keeping existing systems, sometimes there are needs to tweak and sometimes there are needs to totally abandon certain systems and to establish new ones.  We would not want leaders to go beyond their authority, so we want leaders with good judgement, and surely the qualities of good leaders is not easy to find, but sometimes these kinds of people are needed, and it depends on the situation and the scope of the responsibilities whether some people are capable and how are they chosen and whether it might be better to not have any one leader or do we have everyone decide certain things?  None of these are easy answers... even if you seem to be suggesting that it is a deficiency in people to want to have leaders.


There are a lot of so called "libertarians" who are anti-government who seem to think that the world would be better without any government, or they want to describe what kind of government is good and what kind is not good, but sometimes the answers will depend on the will of the group.. which is a kind of government to the extent that there might be a belief that group interests exist that will not necessarily resolve on their own (through voluntary efforts).

I am pretty sure that bitcoin does not take away the need for government and leaders, but there are likely ways that bitcoin will continue to inspire various changes in incentives in connection with money and value  which has been a way that governments and leaders have been  corrupted through a large portion of human history because there seem to be a lot of ways that money system have devolved into abuses, even if there may have also been times in which monetary systems have brought value to various societies.. and surely some players have been able to profit more than others (Cantillon effect) even when the systems might have been relatively more fair than other systems.