THIS CRASH IS DIFFERENT than previous crashes... The FEDERAL RESERVE is why....

[HardFacts]

yes bitcoins price is not the intrinsic value. but that does not mean bitcoin doesnt have one

Tulip Bulbs had a very high PRICE until the mania collapsed.

Bitcoin will have a very high PRICE until the mania collapses.

In the end, Bitcoin's ONLY value is what someone else will pay for it... Once the hope of selling bitcoin for more than you paid for it is gone, Bitcoin will be almost worthless. 

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[ChrisPop]

Tulip Bulbs had a very high PRICE until the mania collapsed.

Bitcoin will have a very high PRICE until the mania collapses.

In the end, Bitcoin's ONLY value is what someone else will pay for it... Once the hope of selling bitcoin for more than you paid for it is gone, Bitcoin will be almost worthless. 

Two different assets, two different times. I see no reason to assimilate the two "assets" - if you can name a tulip an asset taking into account they are highly reproductible. But I'll play your game just for fun:

1) Bitcoin has a limited supply, tulips obviously don't.
2) The tulip bubble only lasted for 3 years. Bitcoin is already more than 4 times older than that and went through a lot of up and downs. I wouldn't name it a bubble anymore.
3) Tulips do not have any of the utility properties of BTC like durability, portability and security. Not even mentioning the fact that you can't digitalize them haha

[DooMAD]

Tulip Bulbs

Uh-oh, scraping the barrel already, are we?  I figure it's always a sign of last resort and desperation when someone rolls out the Tulips spiel.  Have you really got nothing better?

Last time I checked, plants don't allow you to send value to anywhere on earth in a censorship-resistant fashion.  Speculators may succumb to "mania" from time to time, but they most certainly aren't the sole consideration and you keep forgetting that.  Seemingly deliberately.  Perhaps all the genuine users of BTC are a tad inconvenient for your narrative? 

[franky1]

yes bitcoins price is not the intrinsic value. but that does not mean bitcoin doesnt have one

Tulip Bulbs had a very high PRICE until the mania collapsed.

Bitcoin will have a very high PRICE until the mania collapses.

In the end, Bitcoin's ONLY value is what someone else will pay for it... Once the hope of selling bitcoin for more than you paid for it is gone, Bitcoin will be almost worthless.  

a history and real life lesson
bitcoin is deflationary. less are produced over time.. tulips are inflationary more are produced over time. so you cant compare the two

even today people buy and sell tulips, and they make profit from it. tulips today has the same underlying value and values as it did in the 17th century.. its just inflation and the sentiment of the speculative price above the values has changed.. .. go to any garden centre for research, you will find them being sold
yep tulips didnt die 300 years ago..

and by the way.. just a gentle reminder. market price is not intrinsic value..

also the "mania" was not involving regular tulips being sold for house prices.. but a unique breed that only 1-2 were sold for house prices. and millions of other regular tulips sold for normal prices.
the then owner made his money back by producing more from the ones he had. and as inflation suggests when creating more the price/value goes down.
EG if the first ever chicken egg=1chicken and that chicken makes 1000 eggs. you can sell the 1000 eggs for 1000th less each and still break even to your initial cost.

oh and another little hint..in recent years an orchid (a plant) sold for the price of a modern house. so its not just the 17th century one time event that plants sold for house prices only back in the 17th century.. "plant mania" continues on even in recent years.

during a recession especially. people want to store wealth on deflationary(buy to hold/save) and spend wealth on temporary things now on inflationary things. because holding fiat is going to lose them value long term.. holding bitcoin is going to save them value long term

anyways. as to the other points.
as long as bitcoin has utility(function) then there is usefulness and desire. this then has a functional cost of making blocks. which causes people to then mine blocks.
bitcoin would need to have a massive death bug that kills all function for people to give this up.

you will find as millions of people have learned over the last 13 years. is. if there is money to be made. and a competition over that money. the costs increase which in-turn cause the willingness to sell for higher prices plays out.

now some lessons on inflations and deflations..
bitcoins market price is not a factor of value based on a buyers willingness/amount they want to spend. because a user with less fiat can just buy less decimals.. because a seller refuses to give away whole units for less $ cost
(much like the average market order of 2013-17 was $400 which netted people on average 1btc.. )
(much like the average market order of 2020-22 was $400 which netted people on average 0.01btc.. )

peoples regular/average spend has not really changed. but the decimal they get has. because the SELLER refuses to give away whole btc for $400, even if the only money a buyer has on offer is the same ~$400 average
(you notice this when you go to retail stores and see how chocolate bars seem near the same price as a few years ago. but looking closely. the weight of each bar is less. yep multipack snacks seem the same price but you get less snacks per package).. notice how mcdonalds bigmac beef patty has got a little smaller in circumference and thinner but the price looks the same as it did 5 years ago..


a true factor that can affect the economics of less desire of bitcoin is not the market price.. its the transaction fee(utility). if the fee is too much then the utility/desire to use it drops.. so dont think its the market price that will kill bitcoin.. people can just buy decimals.. its infact the transaction fee that can kill utility(excluding a scenario of a unfixable bug that stops utility(less likely scenario))
..
you usually see altnet loyalists shout out how bitcoin is dead, cant scale, wont survive not useful for daily use, too expensive for the unbanked.. but thats because they want people to use their altnet instead and dont care about bitcoin and, well basically they dont understand bitcoins potential or utility in the first place. nor do they know or care about bitcoins values or underlying value. so pretend it has none.. but thats a flaw in their understanding.
..
have a good day doing research.. but please do go to a garden centre and buy a tulip. because i really think you forgot that tulips survived the test of time and that there are some breeds of plants even 300years after the mania you are unsure of, still happening today being sold for high prices. but please do your research about actual details of tulip mania because you have it all wrong and backwards

oh last reminder. the market price is not the intrinsic value.. so please again dont confuse the two. and dont assume because the market price is not the value, foolishly(in your mind) think that it means there is no value.. because there is value. you just have to look for it

[o_e_l_e_o]

Past performance is not indicative of future results

So you believe this, but you also believe the price of Tulips in the 1600s is directly applicable to bitcoin.

In the end, Bitcoin's ONLY value is what someone else will pay for it...

Is it? Damn! And here's me using it as a currency to buy a huge variety of goods and services for years, both in person and online, from around the world. Should I PM you a list of all the vendors I use so you can email them and tell them that bitcoin isn't a currency after all and it doesn't have any value? Maybe if you could also ask them all to send me all the bitcoin I spent with them back to me again. I'm sure they'll all have absolutely no problem with that after you tell them it's worthless.

[HardFacts]

Is it? Damn! And here's me using it as a currency to buy a huge variety of goods and services for years, both in person and online, from around the world.

NO ONE is pricing their products in Bitcoin and using it as a currency.   When you pay by Bitcoin, it is instantly converted into US DOLLARS that the seller uses.   You can NOT price things in Bitcoin, it is to unstable.

1.   If you were hired  at a job last year, and paid in Bitcoin, and your pay was actually priced in Bitcoin, at a rate of 1 Bitcoin per year, would you still be working

2.  If you put your house for sale on the Market in Bitcoin last year, actually priced in Bitcoin, 10 Bitcoins for your house.  Would you sell it today for 10 Bitcoins   

Using Bitcoin as a currency IS A LIE if it is nothing is priced in Bitcoin, the bitcoin is instantly converted to US Dollars, or whatever the currency your country uses.

SORRY, converting your BitCoin to US Dollars to pay for your tesla is NOT bitcoin functioning as a currency.  Even if Tesla does the Bitcoin - US Dollar conversion for you, the PRICE is always a US Dollar amount.

[legcramp]

Come on you guys can't take this guy serious, he's was pumping libracoin ffs lol

[o_e_l_e_o]

NO ONE is pricing their products in Bitcoin and using it as a currency.  When you pay by Bitcoin, it is instantly converted into US DOLLARS that the seller uses.

Completely wrong yet again. Thousands upon thousands of people are using bitcoin as a currency every single day. There are plenty of merchants who price things in bitcoin, and there are plenty of merchants who accept bitcoin directly without converting it to fiat to either hold themselves, pay their staff, pay their supplies, buy goods and services for their business or themselves, and so on. You spewing out nonsense on a forum of something you have zero experience with doesn't change the fact that this is happening around the world every day.

1.   If you were hired  at a job last year, and paid in Bitcoin, and your pay was actually priced in Bitcoin, at a rate of 1 Bitcoin per year, would you still be working

Depends. Where do I live? Venezuela? Zimbabwe? Sudan? Turkey? Bitcoin is definitely preferable to their highly inflationary fiat currencies.

[mv1986]

1.   If you were hired  at a job last year, and paid in Bitcoin, and your pay was actually priced in Bitcoin, at a rate of 1 Bitcoin per year, would you still be working

Depends. Where do I live? Venezuela? Zimbabwe? Sudan? Turkey? Bitcoin is definitely preferable to their highly inflationary fiat currencies.

If inflation keeps developing at the rate even most of the Western world is currently facing, you might be forced to add quite a lot of countries to your list

So maybe we are rather sooner than later all calculating in Bitcoin instead of USD or EUR! But that won't happen soon I guess as politicians will know their way out at least temporarily through elite status preserving regulations aka Bitcoin's utility suppressing regulations. 

[BlackHatCoiner]

NO ONE is pricing their products in Bitcoin and using it as a currency.   When you pay by Bitcoin, it is instantly converted into US DOLLARS that the seller uses.   You can NOT price things in Bitcoin, it is to unstable.

Most merchants do price according to the exchange rate, but that doesn't mean they don't price goods in bitcoin. I only give them bitcoin. They only receive bitcoin. Then, they might pay another merchant with bitcoin. They might need to exchange some for fiat, pay taxes, charges etc., to be complied with the law, but that doesn't change facts. There's a properly operating economy built around bitcoin.

And we're both parties incentivized to accomplish our transaction using bitcoin, because it's cheaper. Various merchants do make a discount if you pay their goods with bitcoin.

1.   If you were hired  at a job last year, and paid in Bitcoin, and your pay was actually priced in Bitcoin, at a rate of 1 Bitcoin per year, would you still be working 

A salary of 1 bitcoin per year is incredible for the countries o_e_l_e_o has mentioned. Even at the current "bear market", $20k/year for a country like Nigeria is very high. Their GDP per capita is $2,396.04 as of Dec 31, 2020.

And $20k per bitcoin is simply a discount, sorry if you don't see it that way. There will be less than 21 million bitcoin in existence, and just in the US there are about 22 million millionaires. There are about 8 billion people on Earth. If bitcoin was meant to be allocated equally, each person would be accounted with less than 0.002625 BTC. Acquiring 1 BTC puts you way above the average.

Depends. Where do I live? Venezuela? Zimbabwe? Sudan? Turkey? Bitcoin is definitely preferable to their highly inflationary fiat currencies.

Russia and Nigeria experience even worse rates, AFAIK.

[HardFacts]

Depends. Where do I live? Venezuela? Zimbabwe? Sudan? Turkey? Bitcoin is definitely preferable to their highly inflationary fiat currencies.

Yes I will concede that point:   If you live in the absolute worst countries in the world, which are economic basket cases, then Bitcoin is more stable and can actually function as a currency     In a stable economy like the USA, companies are not PRICING products in bitcoin, they are converting to USD at the moment of sale.

But if Bitcoin has to be compared to the absolute most worthless, unstable FIAT currencies in the world to be attractive, then something is really wrong with Bitcoin.  I would not invest in Venezuela Bolivars, Zimbabwe Dollars, or Bitcoin.  They are all great ways to lose all your money.  There are MUCH BETTER, less risky investments than Bitcoin.

[tadamichi]

But if Bitcoin has to be compared to the absolute most worthless, unstable FIAT currencies in the world to be attractive, then something is really wrong with Bitcoin.  I would not invest in Venezuela Bolivars, Zimbabwe Dollars, or Bitcoin.  They are all great ways to lose all your money. 

When dunning kruger meets YouTube university.

This won’t age well, when you realize that every fiat currency is based on the same monetary principles as the currencies stated above, the fate the “better” ones they will go to isn’t different. Worthlessness or authoritarianism.

Bitcoin is working exactly as intended, helping people who need it now (especially in countries like mentioned above). It doesn’t need to bend to your impatience, fear or lack of knowledge to do virtue signaling or getting more adoption. People who are into it already know what it’s about.

It’s kinda like really understanding Bitcoin has a natural iq barrier in place, that keeps people like you out. You can’t fake your way in, there’s no way around studying to get it, unlike the sources that you keep mentioning, that just require you to follow someone that sounds smart, instead of learning anything yourself. Learning is an active process, go get at it yourself, you still won’t have to like Bitcoin, but it’s just obvious that you never studied anything about these topics yourself.

There are MUCH BETTER, less risky investments than Bitcoin.

Which are?

[o_e_l_e_o]

In a stable economy like the USA, companies are not PRICING products in bitcoin, they are converting to USD at the moment of sale.

Have you bought anything in USD lately? Literally every time I go to the supermarket or go to get gas, the prices have all gone up again. USD is simply too unstable to price products in; vendors are obviously pricing based on the value of the goods and services they need to buy and converting to USD.

There are MUCH BETTER, less risky investments than Bitcoin.

If you could go ahead a provide a list of these much better investments which have outperformed bitcoin over the last 10 years, that would be great.

This won’t age well, when you realize that every fiat currency is based on the same monetary principles as the currencies stated above, the fate the “better” ones they will go to isn’t different. Worthlessness or authoritarianism.

Block 0 was mined 4,922 days ago. A quick look at Coinmarketcap shows that for ~556 of those days, bitcoin closed at a price above the current price. This means that bitcoin has been profitable to hold for 88.7% of its life. By comparison, USD has been profitable to hold for exactly 0% of its life. It has never been worth less than it is today, although that's a record that will be broken tomorrow, and the next day, and the next day, and the next day...

[BlackHatCoiner]

In a stable economy like the USA, companies are not PRICING products in bitcoin, they are converting to USD at the moment of sale.

Do you have a proof for that? I've sent a lot of bitcoin to heaps of merchants, most of which live in "stable" economies like the US, EU, UK, and I'm sure lots of them don't choose to exchange their bitcoin for fiat at the point of sale. I can look into the chain and confirm it for you, but that'd be just a waste of time. You deliberately avoid to understand it.

But if Bitcoin has to be compared to the absolute most worthless, unstable FIAT currencies in the world

Every fiat currency is potentially worthless and unstable. See Russia; strong economy, but shitcoin. USD is now more rapidly decreasing in value, and so is EUR and GBP. Every nation on Earth is currently experiencing massive inflation, because those who're responsible for the economy cannot be trusted to maintain it, and there are only the willfully ignorant fools like you who still can't see the benefits of bitcoin.

Meanwhile, bitcoin rises by about 180% since the first halving, on average. Probably nothing.

[franky1]

I would not invest in Venezuela Bolivars, Zimbabwe Dollars, or Bitcoin.  They are all great ways to lose all your money.  There are MUCH BETTER, less risky investments than Bitcoin.

he says, whilst spending months on a bitcoin forum

i have no interest in owning an ant farm or having a sex change.. you can tell because my search history, bookmarks and general browser history show no webpages related to ant farms or genital surgery.

so why are you on a forum of something you have no interest in?

..

i understand your real motives. you bought in first time at the june 2019 hype and regretted it that summer/winter when the price went down.

we can tell because you joined the forum around that date and have been making little hints..

If you Bought Bitcoin in JUNE 2019, You'd Be DOWN 49 %

oh and by the way.. i know you bought in since..again.. presumably at another hype near ATH amount of 2020+ because you keep crying when the price goes down..
only someone already highly invest cries when there is discount opportunities to buy in.

im guessing you now want to try and FUD the forum with comments hoping you will be able to push the market price down to autumn 2019 prices again so you can buy back in and average down your investments you made at higher prices.. , but pretending that your not interested in bitcoin, never invested.. but that is a laugh. your emotions are too high about something you pretend to not be invested in.

funny thing is you got very happy about bitcoin in jan 2021 when the price went from $23k up. you were even imagining the price going to $100k.. with smiley faces

I agree, NOTHING goes up in a straight line, there will be corrections.   If it were possible to predict where the corrections would be, we would all be rich.  Many were warning about a correction at 22,000 but it did not happen.   Now 22,000 looks super cheap        I should have bought in at 3900 in March   

As I posted last month, Institutional Money would change everything for BitCoin, and make the price go up to the levels you guys have been talking about for many years...  Here is how BitCoin goes from what seems a high price of 40,000 now to 100,000 very quickly   

.. your too obvious. just admit it you are highly invested and just sad that its the wrong time of year to sell some coins

[HardFacts]

funny thing is you got very happy about bitcoin in jan 2021 when the price went from $23k up. you were even imagining the price going to $100k.. with smiley faces


.. your too obvious. just admit it you are highly invested and just sad that its the wrong time of year to sell some coins

Yes, when institutional money started to get into Bitcoin, I thought Bitcoin would go up far more than it did.  Bitcoin ran up nicely, just not as much as I and most people here thought it would. 

Bitcoin going down by such a large amount has ENDED the dream of a lot of serious institutional money investing into Bitcoin.  No large institution is going to invest real money into Bitcoin now that it has crashed by more than 66 % in less than a year.

Ponzi Schemes simply do not survive crashes well...  Bitcoin has proven that it will crash along with the stock market in an economic crisis.  Welcome to the new reality.   I am honest and smart enough to change my outlook on Bitcoin based on market conditions, most others here are not emotionally capable of doing that.

[JollyGood]

1 BTC is equal to 1 BTC without dragging fiat in to the equation but what cannot be denied is that people invested USD$ in to buying Bitcoin and they see their profit or loss margins based on USD$ because 1 BTC = 1 BTC.

The banking conglomerate and governments all over the world will not allow crypto to simply waltz in and take over, it will be a long drawn out process which might allow space for Bitcoin to flourish as a more mainstream utilised commodity.

Bull crap.

Bitcoin is still running strong just like it has been doing for more than 10 years. The price means nothing. The fundamentals haven’t changed. 1btc = 1btc. Who gives a flying cocktail about the dollar anyhow?

These high interest rates will only kill the dollar and when it happens, bitcoin will take over. Powell can’t risk this so soon he will chicken out and lower the rates again. Then bitcoin will go above $200k.

[BlackHatCoiner]

Yes, when institutional money started to get into Bitcoin, I thought Bitcoin would go up far more than it did.

Because you were speculating. And if most speculate the same thing, it's unlikely to happen.

Bitcoin going down by such a large amount has ENDED the dream of a lot of serious institutional money investing into Bitcoin.  No large institution is going to invest real money into Bitcoin now that it has crashed by more than 66 % in less than a year.

Uhm, have you taken a look at the chart? I suppose you haven't.

Jan 2010, bitcoin was valuated at $16, a month later at $213, and then it crashed all the way to $70. (-67%)
Nov 2013, bitcoin reached $1,075, and then it crashed to $230. (-78%)
Dec 2017, bitcoin touched a $17,800, and then it crashed to $3,800. (-78%)
Nov 2021, bitcoin at $65,000, and here we are now, crashed to $20,000. (-69%)

Sure, no institution is going to invest "real money" now. 

Ponzi Schemes simply do not survive crashes well...  Bitcoin has proven that it will crash along with the stock market in an economic crisis.  Welcome to the new reality.   I am honest and smart enough to change my outlook on Bitcoin based on market conditions, most others here are not emotionally capable of doing that.

Okay, three things.

• Ponzi schemes do not survive when they crash. Period.
• When the entire economy is crashing, it's rational for something to be crashing as well.
• We are not in an economic crisis. We've slipped through a deep recession.

[franky1]

Ponzi Schemes simply do not survive crashes well...

i dont think you even know what a ponzi scheme is

ponzi's have 3 elements to it
1. your not buying ponzi shares/assets on some open market. your paying a scammer and he keeps the money. he controls all the shares.
you cant mine new ponzi shares or buy them from someone else or obtain them from selling goods or services.

2. when you want to sell your shares you have to request money from the scammer, you cant just sell your shares to other people. or buy things with it or exchange it for other things away from the scammer.

3. the scammer controls how many shares to offer out or to take back, usually there is no limit on how many can go out, but there is a limit on how many can come back in.. so that he can control how much money leaves his pocket. , basically he uses peters money coming in to pay pauls money going out. where he is only letting paul go out with a smaller amount so that the scammer can keep a bit of peters money

...
bitcoin is nothing like that.

bitcoin is not a pyramid either where a top central person sets up a system that requires more population to join where a percentage of all transfers go back up to the top creator..

however fiat is a pyramid. every payment you make gets taxed which goes to the national treasurer that created fiat
the only way it survives is to try getting more population to use it. or get a limited population to get more to be taxed more by it. . the dollar has for as long as anyone remembers been trying to push more countries to accept dollar as a base currency they need to use. they try to find new ways to tax every transaction. everything from income, asset swaps, sales tax, business sales profits,

the other part is the way they create and distribute new money is flawed in fiat. they dont just hand it out to people that earned it. instead they loan new money out asking the recipient to pay it back to them with a little extra interest on top.
..

bitcoin again is nothing like that their is no central reserve/treasury in bitcoin. their is no down stream game where those above it get % of those below it(no royalty/tax/passive income/loan interest returns) for those above the current holder

..
bitcoin is not a ponzi or a pyramid. bitcoin is an open currency anyone can use, where there are many ways to get in and out freely. many ways to earn it and many ways to spend/sell it. there is no tax that goes to a central treasury where every payment puts money into upstream managers.

there are many ways to get bitcoin. you can sell merchandise for bitcoin. (in my own town i know of 5 people doing just that. and this town is not even one you hear about in media or news events and its not a tourist spot.)

you can mine it.
you can buy it from random people face to face or via exchanges (centralised or decentralised)
you can earn it, via a job or some software games that do "play to earn", heck even some people rent out things in exchange for bitcoin. even things like renting out their forum avatar or footnote space.
people offer services for bitcoin. consultations, advise, technical assistance, physical world repair, manual labour work..

the thing that differentiates bitcoin from fiat is that there is no central reserve keeping 10%+ of every payment(tax treasury)

..
as for your cries in what you describe as "crash".. thats saying you are invested at a price higher then the market "crash" events.. someone wanting to invest(future tense) would be happy and excited to see low prices. its discount. heck even though im already highly invested. but i also see the benefit of discount events. i dont cry about it. .. but thats because i dont see myself as at a loss.

these events i call dips, corrections, discount and finding the new bottom. are opportunities, even for someone already invested. the new bottom of each halving cycle is more than the last. meaning if you can buy at the new bottom. and hold for the next cycle you will not lose.

the prospective to have is not to think of the ATH as the 'value' a price should stay at where by any dip 'crash' is seen as a loss.. but instead, look at the bottoms as the 'value' and if the price comes back down from a temporary overpriced premium. take the opportunity before the next deflationary rise cycle

i already had enough hoard to see me good for rest of my life. but even recently when the market tipped below $30k i bought more. and when it tipped below $20k i bought even more. these discounted prices in comparison to the 2020-2022 era average is a good time to buy, so i did. no regrets, no cries, even when the price i paid this year is higher than the hoard i got from many years ago.

[DooMAD]

No large institution is going to invest real money into Bitcoin now that it has crashed by more than 66 % in less than a year.

Are you naive enough to think "professionals" only make safe bets?  How do you think the global financial crisis happened in the first place?  Any time they sniff a potential for profit, they'll come crawling back.  They've done that every time the market has dropped and they'll continue doing it.

And why can't you move beyond the fact that Bitcoin is more than just a speculative asset?  Sure, lots of people are speculating.  But they're missing out on the real benefits.  Perhaps you're too busy worshiping the fools at the Fed to understand the real point of Bitcoin.  No one is going to take you seriously until you can, at the very least, demonstrate your understanding of why we see value in it, even if you choose not to.

so why are you on a forum of something you have no interest in?

Said the troll who genuinely believes Bitcoin stopped being Bitcoin in 2017 and everything after that was "fake consensus".  You hate post-SegWit Bitcoin even more than this clown does. 

Don't act like you're better than HardFacts.  You're more alike than you care to admit.  Peas in a pod.  You're both willing to distort the truth in pursuit of you misguided agendas.  Neither of you seem to comprehend freedom of choice.  You're both annoying, obtuse and belligerent.  Two trolls, albeit with differing goals in mind.