Bitcoin Forum

Unlike in the western world, PBOC doesn't have the disclosure obligation. The recent event is a notification to the banks, to stop and close the trading account used by 15 named exchanges to receive deposite and send withdraw.

The notification was never meant to go to main stream media. In smaller cases too paltry for media interes, I expect, sometimes the bank account holder may simply gets confused why his account is closed, and finds no one can answer. A kind official may explain that "you know what I mean", implying there are higher orders. I'll divert the topic a minute for "you know what I mean": it is a famous quote. In a recent press conference, foreign medias are told they are forbidden to ask about Zhou Yong Kang. A journalist however asked, putting his/her news agency at risk. The spokesman said he doesn't know, and "you know what I mean" i.e. you know you are forbidden to talk about it and you know I am too.

This is to give an idea that notifications is not for the public, although PBOC may be aware that it will be on the news anyway. Notifications are not treated as secret neither, only 'internal information'. The notification was issued, according to Caixin, "around mid of March", so it has been a while. Remember that there were speculation why the supposely-fake news of China ban held down the market for longer than it should? Various speculation were there and I don't buy any of them †- seems it is because that some players in the market knows the 'notification',  people who know more than I do. I've been acepted and deleted out of some seasoned investor's QQ group for a few rounds, and no one answers me why, otherwise I might have known more info before this hard crash - did I speak in English about China too much?
† https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=524820.msg5848910#msg5848910

Caixin said they confirmed the 'notification'.‡ Du Jun (co-founder of Huobi) said that 80% of the chance the news being untrue.  Caixin is a reputable financial media in China. I'll believe Caixin's report for now. In the report it mis-quotes that China makes up 60% of the BTC trade world wide, while I guess the reality is less than 40%, 15 to 25% is a reasonable guess. But Caixin's ignorance of China's trade volume doesn't mean they'd risk misreporting PBOC.
‡ http://finance.caixin.com/2014-03-27/100657253.html

So what's the impact? Price was 520USD this Chinese morning. I am surprised the price only went down by this far. In comparison, 18th Dec PBOC news press made a 35% drop and this ban is harsher than that. Perhaps the people are waiting for a formal press release from PBOC, perhaps they ain't scared enough. After 18th Dec the Chinese bag holders are all long term investors, motivated by the dream of prosperity and wealth, but any long term investors dreaming of wealth are not long term investors, i.e. they look at the reward (of their effort, belief and sacrifices), not value (of their wise choice). I expect them to dump more; too much emotion are attached to BTC investments here. There is going to be a huge transfer of digital wealth from the east to the west. Read my other post about investor sentiments:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=510829.msg5639435 (a continued inspection of China )

Chinese people have little believe that the government does anything in their interest. If, after the saga, Bitcoin rises again, Chinese players will feel that the government robbed them away the chance to be rich, once again! This is a perfect backdrop for P2P trading network, or "blackmarket" as our government would like to call it. It is a very good opportunity to develop p2p trading software that links online and offline world. PBOC did not ban Bitcoin trades, only bans Bank's involvement, 'cos banning the trade requires other government sector to work with PBOC. With bank involvement removed, this is a good opportunity to test whether Bitcoin really can replace Banks on payment processing, deposite, transfer, settlement and foreign-exchange. (It cannot replace Bank for lending, because Bitcoin is a hard limited currency, not suitable for usury, but that need is secondary.)


On a interesting side note, Bitfinex, an exchange based in Hong Kong, is not on the ban list. Does that mean PBOC have no jurisdiction over Hong Kong? Can someone knowledgable verify this? If so, we should be seeing massive move to Hong Kong soon.

Mind you the Exchange-Run (like Bank-Run) will reveal the insolvency of some Chinese exchanges, which may trigger another crash, depending on the size of the debtor.

P. S.

I'll quote myself when one of my background homework revealed to be true:

Currency markets
currency   volume %   volume ฿   last price   cross price
USD   82.38   127,056.95   0.496   USD   0.496 USD
CNY   11.22   17,310.53   2.946   CNY   0.475 USD

https://bitcoinaverage.com/#USD

Frankly speaking I hope the ban is true. If that's not true it means we could fall into the same cycle indefinitely. What do you think?

As said, Caixin is the closet thing to "reputable" in China's financial sector. They said they confirmed it, I think hence there are little room to doubt.

Me too, in a sense of getting some clarity. How many times this ban-unban would continue? As far as % drop-we shall see. Market was probably expecting this to a degree. $400 might hold.
This is a purely defensive move by the chinese authorities who wanted to close the potential leak of capital through bitcoin. If so, it does not bode well for CNY, at least in the near and intermediate future.

The rich will still find a way to move their wealth into Bitcoin. The ordinary Chinese citizen will miss out on a great opportunity. Bitcoin will flourish around the world. If 1 percent of the U.S. population (3 million people) buys 1 BTC each, the price will easily be more than 10,000 dollars.

This is the article:
http://jingji.cntv.cn/2014/03/28/ARTI1395963853109425.shtml

And it clearly says that the PBOC released a statement saying that the 15 april bank is untrue:对此，央行官方微博当日发布了微博称“‘4月15日前停止一切比特币交易’为失实报道, 人民银行对比特币的态度已在人民银行等五部委《关于防范比特币风险的通知》中明确表述。”

So why all the fuss? Anyone care to illuminate me on this please?!

I'm not happy for Chinese Bitcoiners as their government idiots are screwing them again but I am happy for Bitcoin world.

Obviously, it would be great if China could be normal for once and Bitcoin to prosper there too but since those lunatics from their government can't be normal than it's better to get rid as soon as possible, and move on.

One reason for me to think this is not completely true because we have only 2 weeks until the deadline. This won't be enough for people to close the accounts. That will only lead to social unrest which they definitely do not want to see.

Also, if the report is true, people should not be able to deposit now, but it is still available

That statement is the backdrop of the precursor mini-crash.  PBOC stated they did not ban Bitcoin trade, hence the early reports are wrong, but Caixin's latest report says PBOC decided to force close the trade accounts of exchanges - hence this 2nd crash. So the ban is true, but incorrectly described, and now we have the correctly described version. PBOC childishly over-reacted to the incorrectly described internal ban, claiming it is fake, at the rage the ban disclosed to media so early.

There will be a probably be a downtrend consisting of spikes down whenever each exchange's bank account (or the exchange itself) actually gets closed. It's not going to happen all at once, because the money flow is still active and there are still people hoping it won't happen.

The notification required closure of 15 companies' accounts, there will be less than 100 accounts to go, there are enough time. And I agree with you that the only thing in doubt is that deposite is still possible. But I will put wage on the professionalism of Caixin this time. That is, I think there are not much room to doubt - unless PBOC rewrite old decisions with new ones that not yet disclosed.

But there must be enough time for traders to get their money back, or that will only lead to "un-harmony". You know what I mean

Yes.

逾期未关闭的，央行将进行处罚。也就是说，宽限期4月15日之后，比特币网站不再具备给客户提现的合法通道。

If accounts are not closed, the central bank will punish. After April 15, there is no legal way for Bitcoin websites to let users withdraw funds.

Ha ha. "You know what I mean" again.

The internal notification was not for the public - I explained this point already. The plan was:

1. Issue this notfications, and let banks notify the exchanges. Bank manager "We ain't gonna work with you, and you know what I mean".
2. The exchanges announces that they can't operate. Putting blame to PBOC is extremely silly move, they should do so by saying "please take our your money back, we can't do business, you know what I mean."
3. People know what it means and cease trading, being aware that exchanges already lined up with PBOC.

Now talk about unharmony, there are so many unharmony things happening everyday! The way to reach harmoney is not to do justice, but to put off the fight, i.e. convert rage to sadness, resent to capitulation. A war can be prevented if both sides knows who wins in the end. Letting exchances announcing they can't do the business is a clear signal that the government had won before the war start.

The plan was good but the notification leaked, two times. The first time PBOC state it was fake, and the second time more details are revealed and Caixin says they confirmed it (though receiver of the notification or PBOC?). This puts PBOC in confronation to bitcoin. This was really unnecessary and un-harmony, not meant to happen, but PBOC won't fear the confrontation, thus the intention will be done.

So what do you think will happen now? There will still be people in China who want to buy and sell Bitcoin. What will they do?

So, in your opinion, why have exchanges continued to operate? Are we to suppose that none of them have a long term business plan? That is hard to believe, especially considering the recent infusion of VC capital into multiple exchanges.

Unless the people running the exchanges are complete idiots, and I assume they are not, what is it that they plan to do?

Seriously? Like a bunch of girls i swear.

If only they paid so much attention to the billion other real problems they are having. This is an empire that would burn books if it empowered them. Shame

Respect -1

I don't know why the Chinese central authorities want to cede future financial power to the West by banning Bitcoin. Bitcoin could wind up being worth hundreds of trillions of dollars.  A poor small country like the Phillipines could choose to aggressively adopt it and become an overnight super power in China's backyard. They better think long and hard about their decision. It could be the best or worst decision they make in hundreds of years.

This, I cannot solve, but I have a theory.

I am speculating that Exchange's CEOs (some of them know me but didn't establish business contact) are simply confused and waiting for their bank managers to tell them that the accounts will be closed soon, meanwhile making backup plans to move to HK. The bank managers, however, was told to hold, and wait for PBOC's new decision. PBOC is watching media and trying to sense if everybody are ready to accept the fate -> Yes = Go on as planned. No = Make new strategy with the same goal. PBOC has a history of clumsy PR management, they are learning it too, so it's hard to predict their move. Notice that this time PBOC started the action (last time 18th Dec 2013, 5-ministry co-operated) so they have more room to change strategy, nevertheless the intention is clear now.

The PBOC must understand that closing the exchanges will do little to stop the effect of Bitcoin capital flight.

The social network between people is too great; even if China can prevent social networking websites from talking about it. The word of mouth for something like Bitcoin between friends and family is strong enough to make capital flight unstoppable should the Chinese people desire to preserve their wealth as the unimaginably large economic bubble bursts.

I honestly think this is a direct reaction to an abnormally high risk of economic collapse. I think this is a strong knee-jerk reaction and it is very much grasping at straws.

The Chinese government is resisting change, but sometimes change is irresistible. The Chinese government can't keep the people from Bitcoin any more than they can keep a Typhoon away from the coast.

As I said I hope they really enforce it so this will be the last time we got China-ed. If today PBOC is not clarifying like last time, the odds is big

I don't think that the actual economy of bitcoin in China was that big if it even existed at all. The trading volume was just daytraders speculating and trading with the help of exchanges. Now that the exchanges are closed they will look for the next place where they can easily speculate and trade a different asset. There will be no motivation for them to suddenly establish a barter based bitcoin economy, especially not one nearly as large as the trading volume that was going on in exchanges.

Perhaps because Bitcoin is an excellent means of capital flight for wealthy Chinese citizens and therefore is a financial weapon that if left unchecked, could grow to undermine the whole Chinese economy?

I agree with this.

I also don't think that the Chinese government is that concerned with Bitcoin. I think it sees it as a small annoyance.

Years down the road, if bitcoin is integrated in a global manner, they will change their mind.

For now though, I expect exchanges will be moving to Hong Kong, where they probably should have been from the start.

Perhaps the chinese authorities don't have the same opinion as the bulls do here about how magnificient the bitcoin technology is and how big it will become and how it could give that much power to a foreign country as you believe. They probably think of it more like another pesky shadow currency which they've banned many of in the past.

Please don't fall for this crap.
This afternoon the CEO's of every major Chinese exchange said it was rumors and they had nothing official. (I don't have the link now, but I saw it here and maybe on Reddit too)

The current status is still FUD and BS until proven otherwise.


Edit:
Here is the quote, but the article I saw earlier was stronger at making 'today's big news' sound like total BS.

“I’m aware of the rumors circulating on the topic,” Bobby Lee, chief executive officer of BTC China, one of the largest bitcoin exchanges in the Asian nation, said by phone today. “I haven’t heard of anything else to confirm that. We are still waiting to see what happens.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-27/pboc-orders-banks-to-shut-bitcoin-exchange-accounts-caixin-says.html

Obviously they are going to say that so that business keeps running as usual.

BTW, what is to stop Chinese to open account in Hong Kong, still his own country, and to trade from there, deposit and withdraw.

Is it a problem for Mainland Chinese to do a that in Hong Kong?

I'm not looking at it from the perspective of today. The government is likely to exist for a very long time. Bitcoin is something that is not going away... It's unwise for a government to ignore the potential future gravity of a changing idea/technology.

I'm looking into the near future where one possible scenario is an economic collapse of CNY.

Most Chinese hedge on commodities. The Chinese people can't get their wealth out of China.

The desire to leave would increase sharply should the Chinese bubble burst. People will be looking for a loop-hole and the PBOC can't stop it. There is a limit to all things; the Chinese people will soon realize that they are capable of choosing between whats right and wrong.

The PBOC would have been better off leaving it alone.

The actions of those who would prevent change may only hasten it; the actions of those who would implement change may delay it.

I maintained that CEOs of Chinese exchanges had nothing official - I never aruged against it. The arguement I am making is that the rumors are true, although various factor can influnce the execution. Then again, you only need to know the intention of PBOC - the general believe is PBOC wins every round.

What are the restrictions/limits on people taking/withdrawing RMB in Hong Kong or converting to HK dollars? Does the PBOC have any control over Hong Kong? I can see people easily taking a trip to Hong Kong and buying a large amount of BTC.

If it was true the exchanges would know about it.
Smart money is buying BTC while you spread your BS.   :P

A Chinese citizen can not purchase more than 50,000USD's worth of forieng currency like HKD in a year.

Bitfinex operates out of Hong Kong. They are not affected by the Chinese Government.

Anyone can open account in HK, just that you cannot remit CNY to mainland and vice versa (subject to annual $50k USD limit per person).

Of course, there are ways to get around it.

Do you mean "Bitfinex operates out of China mainland, in Hong Kong; They are not affected by the Chinese Government."?

Because I always thought Bitfinex is a HK business, am I wrong?

Correct.

So the exchanges will move to Hong Kong. Chinese who want to buy BTC will be told by the exchange to send RMB to an exchange employee in China, who will then purchase HK dollars which will then be deposited in the exchange's HK bank account.

china just wants more cash into the country and less going out..  That's the plan.. ::)
putting restrictions to prevent fiat to crypto but allow manufacturing/selling mining hardwares and mining coins... then convert crypto to fiat...
And china prospers... ;D ;D ;D

Is it easy for a Chinese to walk over the border to Hong Kong with RMB cash, exchange to HKD locally and then buy coins on a Bitcoin ATM in Hong Kong?

I think this will work, until the Chinese Gov pressurises the Hong Kong Gov to close that exchange too  8)

Hong Kong doesn't give a shit about China mainland when it comes to business as far as I know.

If you are a citizen of a big city, you can get a permission to visit HK (a big city's citizenship is damn hard to get, estimated 100,000USD for one BEIJING citizenship in average cost of efforts. Citizenship, called HUKOU, is vitally important  in China). If you are a citizen of a smaller place, you are allowed to go HK by joining a tour group, where the tour manager is supposely held responsible if you flee to a hidden corner in HK not coming back (in reality many tour group organizes one-memeber-groups for a fee to workaround the regulation). Hence you can organize a HK Bitcion tour, everybody go shopping in HK, shop for goods and coins. perfectly legal AFAIK.

Seems like you dont know every far LOL  ::)

Please call it "residency" , citizenship is a wrong word.

And you're a right in China, you cant freely go everywhere, to own a property you must have residency of the city. You can get it thro multiple ways (such as marriage...etc)

Sorry man but China is seriously fucked up country.

Damn, that shit about permissions of leaving country remind me of dark period of my childhood when the country I was born in was communist Yugoslavia. What a dipshit communism is..

Btw, HK IMO is no longer attractive for financial services like btc exchanges. If you want to attract mainlanders, Macau is the best.

There are many loan sharks in Macau that already has network in Mainland. They offer VIP service so the client can gamble in Macau and pay his debt in mainland.

BTC exchanges can hide under such network (trillions dollars) as it already has good connection with the officials.

Anyway, it's not really problem for exchanges, they can find the way around.

The problem is for regular Joe or Ji :D from China, and how he could easy invest into Bitcoin. If they close banks connection that's not going to be easy for him.

FYI, the HK border restriction is imposed by HK government to prevent influx of illegal workers.

Chinese, as far as i know can freely leave their country as long as they have Visa to the foreign country.

xiexie zhangweiwu!

Really, thank you for all the information you give us.
It makes a lot of sense and means the dip we saw today might just be the beginning.
It reinforces my thoughts that China will try to cripple bitcoin to avoid capital flight.

Regarding the rumors, my theory is that the exchanges dont want to close their businesses.

The PROC didnt outright say btc is prohibited and illegal. The reason is they dont want public outright and being criticized by the Westerns. They always want to be looked at as a developed country....I would call the banking blockage is a soft ban making btc unfeasible for its ppl and eventually would make btc negligible.

Hence the exchanges are most likely finding another banking network to facilitate btc trading.

And imo, for the average joe who buys small quantities, websites like localbitcoins are much more efficient than exchanges anyway (if they're not interested in day trading). The "black market" will just explode.

Bitfinex bank is in Shanghai, will this pose a problem?

Perhaps China is not that far-sighted?

If China did ban bank accounts of exchanges, this would be the best thing ever.

1. BTC China and Huobi will be forced to develop exchange market based on individual bank accounts transacting with one another directly.

2. The publicity from the ban will raise people's awareness of bitcoin in china. People will try to understand what is going on and why the PBOC feels so threatened.

3. After the initial drop in price, people will realise that life goes on. The PBOC cannot succesfully ban everyone's bank account.

That would never happen, have you ever used banks b4? sound like some teenage's dream

It's a bit confusing whichever way I put it. My Resident Card says Xiamen, but if I want to get HUKOU in Xiamen, hell, it is going to be difficult. This is because of the 'collective HUKOU' where I temperorily have a HUKOU in a city and have my resident card updated, but doesn't enjoy the full rights of the citizens there, and the HUKOU gets sent back to hometown in a few years when the collectiveness expires. Also the existance of 'temperory resident licence' for influx workers made it more complicated how to define residence. These are the documents bare similiar names but only HUKOU gives rights. I'll stick to HUKOU without trying to translate it then, and fall back to 'residency' occassionally.

It's called direct funds transfer.

Yup - also for foreigners living in China it is *possible* to get a residency card (as opposed to a "temporary residence permit" which you otherwise need to have to legally stay in China) although that is not easy at all (I have only met 1 foreigner who has one of those which he only got after several attempts and who has lived in China over 25 years and ran a multi-million dollar business here employing 30+ Chinese workers).

I also agree with most of what zhangweiwu is saying - so it will be interesting to see exactly *what happens in mid-April*.

I would also not be surprised if things just keep going on as they did after Chinese New Year (and that this just keeps coming up every quarter as a way of "keeping people from feeling comfortable" using Bitcoin exchanges here).

Indeed the *biggest* concern the Chinese government really has with Bitcoin (and others) is capital leaving the country.

Which is reversible, are you done dreaming kid?

But even that (the resident card) is not yet a HUKOU.

True - although luckily as a foreigner I don't need one of those - they are a big nuisance for Chinese though and rather hard for foreigners (especially westerners) to even *understand*.

BTW the restriction of 50K USD applies to foreigners here also (experienced that personally).

The purpose "to prevent influx of illegal workers" is clear, but who rules is not clear to me. My permission to visit HK was issued by Chinese  border control, not by Hong Kong's - they do have one too, which issues VISA instead of "Permission". If I have a VISA from them - as many rich Chinese has for using HK as panic room - I can also use that to enter HK, but they don't issue VISA to Chinese for short visits, in which case they would ask Chinese to get a "Permission" from his own mainland government instead. The difference is not really important, because of the following:


Sure true.

Whatever it is, it is very complicated  ;D

edit wrong thread

Another method would be to trade bitcoin without ever actually buying it. It would be reasonable complex to do, requiring an account margining system, but there is no reason whereby you could not trade a bitcoin derivative on an exchange. If the cash never actually buys a bitcoin the PBOC cannot complain.

I personally think this is fud and if it comes true I wouldnt thank enough pboc for another chance to give us cheap coins and removing china from bitcoin ecosystem.. most of us bitcoiners would agree that china had been nothing but toxic to bitcoin's stability so far... I for one cant wait for pboc to act sooner and make bitcoin even more precious to chinese.. also money laundering is bs read on unionpay how mainlanders are bypassing government..

what i do not get is why the chinese should sell their bitcoins in the event of closing exchanges? I would hodl them and probably sell them overpriced after the 15th of april or when your economic turmoil really has started.

They have changed the bank to HSBC HK.

Btw, the previous bank is Offshore bank in Shanghai.

If you actually listened to me and expected further dip in the 3 days following 28th, you are rewarded.

BTER, an exchange operated in Canada targetin Chinese (they don't even have English version) and has Chinese bank accounts, is the first to stop charging (deposite) completely (others were talking about BtcTrade, another exchange, which stopped online deposite only. Bter is the first to stop deposite in any form).

Their announcement is here (chinese only):
https://bter.com/article/402

What interests me, is why BTER? There are 15 bitcoin exchanges on the PBOC's ban list, BTER is a much less known one. A wild guess is that banks somehow informed or invited exchanges for a talk, to give order without publicity - typical Chinese government's way - and those who are not available are banned out right to get the owner come out and talk.

In you opinion, why have we not heard from Houbi, OkCoin or BtcChina?

Thanks for asking, I was afraid someone would ask this, 'cause that forces me to speculate, which I should but loath to do. No, I don't really know why we are not hearing from these big exchanges. However, I do not doubted the recent ban existed in cetain form (the recent ban = bank accounts to be closed, 15 exchanges named), not only because I trust Caixin, but the ban is too detailed to be rumor - elaborate rumors don't work in China, simpliest rumour do, this is too detailed to be rumour.

My speculation is outlandish to western readers, so first I'd suggest a read of my previous post, to grasp the culture background:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=397614.0

I'd suggest a full reading. Here is the highlight:

It happened more than once, in the past, that a lot of regulations or a very strict one makes it effectively impossible to do business in the industry. This incriminates the whole industry. The government could then, selectively pursue those who are not loyal, and your survival is back on the track - depending on your loyalty.

So picture this: The officials in charge arranges exchanges to talk, and all they demand for from the CEOs, is not that they promise to follow a certain reggulation, but that they are loyal, willing to obey. If CEOs are obiedient, let them run the business as usual and when anything is wrong, know the CEOs are looking for a chance to pay back, and a communication channel is already established to coordinate any future activities. You only want to make sure CEOs fear you and know to talk in line with medias, and ready to obey. Then you let them live for another while, see if you like the result.

If this speculation is true, Bitcoin will be allowed to live for another 3 months in China. The other possibility being pure sluggish excution - meaning we should see more news coming.


--

If you think this is crazy talk, check the other crazy talk I made and how it came to be reality:
My post:  "What will the China government do to bitcoin?" made on 9th Jan 2014.

Honestly the news with Russia and China regarding Sanctions and world affairs against the US might make them change their policy
Weird factors in play

I thought I understood your entire post, but I don't know where you got "If this speculation is true, Bitcoin will be allowed to live for another 3 months" from.  Why would you say 3 months?

And again, what game are the CEO's playing? I assume they are smart enough to know what you just explained if what you just explained is true. Why aren't they just moving out of the country?

Look at the recent 40 years of history, of our government wants to remove a business, it is done swiftly wtithout struggle. Managers put to prison (e.g. 顾雏军) or in extreme cases killed, company collapse with bad publicity (the state controls a significant portion of media and have loyalty of the rest - Caixin is already one of the most honest non-governmental that is allowed to live, hence I trusted their report - they are often reluctant to say what they know, but when they say, it is often true).

If the government wants to talk to you, then they are demanding for obedience, meaning they think letting you live is acceptable or benificial to them. Henc you will live for another 3 months, just to see if the result pleases them. 3 month is the usually shortest time-frame for our government to make a new decision (remember that when I post last time, 9th Jan, it takes about 3 months for this new decision).


We will wait and see how CEOs act. Moving out of the country has similiar outcome as they shutdown -> China out of the game. Google moved to HK and they are still being punished. You don't work on Chinese market without cooperation of Chinese government.

Ok. I understand what you are saying now. But what doesn't make sense to me, is why would the government force them to close bank accounts by April 15th, if they wanted to give them another 3 months to operate before making potential new decisions?

It seems like by setting a date of April 15th, that they putting an end to the exchanges.

Or, are you implying that you don't think closing access to banking accounts will necessarily end the exchanges and there might be work arounds allowed (potentially with a 3 month review)?

Sorry, I skipped lines: I meant to say "in this speculation the leaked-order is an intention that is replaced by a talk, and BTER didn't get a chance to talk, so their accounts closed as planned". I should have added this line where I said "I do not doubted the recent ban existed in cetain form". But then again, I am thinking Chinese, that line is really not necessary for a local reader.

Don't forget that I also speculated sluggish execution, and more news to come.

The implicit theory behind all this ban/unban question is that the recent (2013) upswing of Bitcoin took China by surprise and now they are forced to take measures.
I call it bullshits: China is a big worldwide economy, with a lot of capable economic managers, you can bet that nothing happens by chance and take them by surprise, as a government they can't simply be that dumb else they won't be where they actually are.
I think that China wants bitcoins badly and they know how much the world is sensible to their moves and they play their cards accordingly, they don't take official positions but they let some "unconfirmed note" slip sometime (which they also quickly dismiss) and close some minor exchange (which, mind you, could be very well proprierty of the same "gray eminence" which will benefit elsewhere from the panic issued).
My guess is that every time a manipulation attempt will not work the way they meant it to go we will experience some new panic-inducing "news" from China.
Therefore i think there will be no ban at all.
Just my 2 cents

bter just clarified that only their 3rd party processor account got closed. They never had a bank account for deposit. So it is still unknown whether bank deposit is banned.

From your previous post record I will trust this conclusion without further homework. So today some my effort in speculating on unverified information. Pity.

This is the clarification from bter: https://bter.com/article/403

Also on the front page of btctrade: http://www.btctrade.com/

So far only 3rd party processors are concerned.

But still, bter confirmed that there is a memo from PBOC to their 3rd party processor. So a memo of some kind does exist

What if one party is trusted and the problem is solved? By all means, unless you've got a transfer from your relatives then it's safe other than that it has to be ensured so that you feel safe and secure.

I just read it. By putting such an announcement there especially the last " 就算世界荒芜，总会有人是你的信徒", BTER forever lost possiblity of getting recognized loyal (while BTCChina repeatedly expressed willingness). Now it's up to PBOC to decide whether loyalty matters - sometimes, they demand loyality, sometimes they just want you dead. We will see.

Reading BTER news I think we are not at the bottom yet.

So far, the 327 Caixin report is 50% confirmed: a recent memo from PBOC banning 3rd party deposit. This is not really interesting as we all know 3rd party deposit has been banned last December after a PBOC meeting. Smaller 3rd party processors which didn't attend the meeting tried to fly under the radar and now the PBOC issues an official memo.

What about bank deposit? There are some possibilities:

1. the Caixin report is 100% correct, the bank accounts will be closed on 15 Apr. However, since none of the 15 named exchanges confirm a ban, I believe this is not the most likely case. I would say 10% chance

2. the Caixin report is mostly correct. The bank accounts will be closed after 15 Apr to give enough time for people to get money back. The exchanges will soon get a notice from their banks. I would say 45% chance.

3. the Caixin report is only 50% correct. Only 3rd party deposit is concerned at this moment. I would say this is also 45% chance.

What do you think?

If you're hoarding BTC/LTC then this has no impact on you because it won't collapse due to one country banning it or limiting its use; however if you make a mistake of getting into the game when it's +/-$1000 and expect to make a quick buck or getting rich then you're expecting to lose big time. For the rest, you just need to wait it out. China may not be nice at the beginning then look else where. One door closes, expect many other doors open!

I totally agree with you but I'm not talking about price speculation here.

I am inclined to agree with you.

The *correction* that BTER released (saying it was only 3rd party stuff) makes me suspect that this is *just another game*.

We will of course see *after* mid-April but my advice to people would be to "hold" and not "panic sell" (and don't leave any coins on exchanges that you aren't *prepared to lose*).

If you are patient enough to followed my advice and waited till now, my understanding is that market price has consumed negative news and negative expectation. The Chinese saga is close to an end. More bad news from Chinese government are expected but market price pretty much contained it. There will be no dip in price by 15th April unless there are bad news not from China's government.

I think, if you want to buy, now is about the time. The chance of a further dip rely on a Chinese major exchange's insolvency, most investors shouldn't wait for that kind of bad news.

P.S. I predicted the fiasco 9th Jan 2014: it will not declare a war against bitcoin but cripple bitcoin operations in China. So there are a certain level of confidence in me.