Bitcoin Forum

Nowadays there is a popular discussion about bear market, which started after BTC price declined in the end of 2021 and continued doing so in the 2022 till now (mid 2022). The question is simple: What do you think about the possibility that BTC will grow in 2022-2023 despite bear market predictions (some say it will take 4  year cycle, till 2024), and what would be the price of the growth?

I am aware of the 4-cycle theory, but I think that due to the rise of metaverse, digital economy shall rise too (new economic tools designed specific for crypto-purposes, the in-stability on stock-markets due to different reasons: war, inflation, gas prices).

If we are going to admit the 4-cycle theory as a basis for analysis, then bear market is on its rise and will last 3 and a half year (till 2025)
But this 4-year cycle theory may not consider the rise of a) interest in digital assets, b) possible metavesre market spread, c) the rise of productive capacity due to digitilized world and so - the interest in digital sector of economy

Let's discuss

Bitcoin may grow in 2023/2024, but bitcoin halving is 2024 and bitcoin grows after halving, the growth is expected in 2024/2025, but that does not means 2023 will not be the for bull and bear market.

Metaverse do not control bitcoin price.

This is not correct, read the bold part of this post.

Usually the end of the bear market is somewhat after the bitcoin block halving. So it will happen if I'm not mistaken on block 840,000. So that will be around April-May 2024, most likely give or take some months, then we will see some recovery. So bull cycle might start around that timeframe 2024 and not 2025.

Not sure what you mean by this.


Still rise base on the basic tenant of supply and demand.

Due to that logic the price of BTC depends percicely on what is happening only with BTC itself (trading, halfing, mining, alghorithm changes).

But I'm also curious if we should take into account that other markets (stock market, global political enviroment) influence the crypto-currency market

For example, when the situation in Kazahstan on New Year's Eve took place (country, where price of electricity is extremely low, so miners moved to that country from China), the price of BTC changed too (it fell significantly).

So my question is - should we calculate the influence of such events as signigicant and which also shapes the price of BTC, or we should only calculate the inner logic of BTC (trading, halfing, mining, alghorithm changes)?

You don't have to force yourself to predict price of Bitcoin in around any halving and in any bull market after a halving.

If you look at past halvings, you see what? Growth, solid growth.

If you want to predict only one thing, let's skip price prediction but predict the survival of Bitcoin and blockchain technology. If they are all here to stay, price will grow in a way it should be. If you predict a positive future for it, you must ignore all rises and falls in short term and even in a few years. Let's imagine what your investment looks like after next 12 or 16 years.

The beauty of dollar-cost averaging in an asset that you're long-term bullish on is that you don't even need to make guesses on how the markets will move in the short-mid term future. You just slowly but surely but in, and if you're right about your long-term thesis, chances are that you're going to make good amounts of money.

There's high tendencies that before 2024 or exactly after the next halving of the said year there is more likely possibility for a rise in bitcoin price, but as for this present time till next year 2023 i have doubt in the rising within this season, there may be only slight move that may not be an observable one, maybe around $20k to $40k at max between now and next year, but this does not create any reason to fear about bitcoin because it's value as currency remains intact, it's just a rise and fall in price speculation.

When it comes to crypto, the technological advancement within the sphere has no major effect on the price. Unless it's some breakthrough stuff, which can be used in other fields as well thus encouraging its adoption. But I don't believe we will witness any such advancement from a place with guys like DoKwon,Justin Sun,Su Zhu lol

It will continue to fall with the US economy. Thanks to all the money printing and free money that was distributed last year, the market is inflated now. This isn't the bottom yet. Expect another 30~40% dropoff in this year and the effect will resonate till the end of 2023. Bullish after Q3 2023
This is my prediction  :D

The OP is right about what is happening now in the world. It can be said that it has never happened, or not in such numbers. Wars, gas and electricity prices, and a crisis in the economy show that we cannot predict the future with certainty. Therefore, the behavior of bitcoin, despite its past predictable growth after the halving, can also throw out a new trick.

And of course, many people here want quick changes in Bitcoin prices in a positive direction, but all we can do is just guess and feel like analysts, whose forecasts will certainly come true, but no one knows the exact time.

Most of us are really hopeful that bull run happens earlier than this 4-year cycle. Last year I planned on selling my bitcoin savings before the start of 2022 and will just buy back in late 2023. But I haven't. I convinced myself that things might be different this time. We have El Salvador and maybe some more countries this year or in few years. Adoption is bigger than before. We also have web3 and NFTs which also started in the gaming industry.

The current war in Ukraine and world crisis damage a lot of nations economies which lead to diminishing currency values and plummeting its stock markets. All of these make bitcoin becoming more viable and acceptable as a currency and as an investment.     

It would make sense that the halving becomes less and less important as the impact of mining on the total supply becomes less and less material.

So yes next cycle could be sooner

I think the 4 yearly circle in halving has an impact in predicting the next bull run because it has shown that quite a few times this has happened.The first halving happened in 2012 and one year later the first all time high in November 2013,then halving happened in mid 2016 and the next all time high happened in December 2017 meaning 1.5 years after,the next one happened in 2020 and we got a new all time high in October 2021.So far this is being the trend and based on this it looks like in 2024 will be the next halving with 2025 the next big all time high,hopefully it will come sooner and even in 2022-2023 where no one expects it.

The term depends very much from user to user... is it growth, or is it recovery?
From my calculations/feeling at least in Q4 2022 the price should start recovering. But the value to be touched is hard to predict. If it'll be 40-45k I'd be already happy. If it'll recover quicker I'll be even happier.
However, this is mere speculation.

The problem is the economy of half of the world that is crashing hard these days, so in order to speculate about the bitcoin price we have to first speculate about the time that crash ends. I personally don't think it's possible to predict that because the inflation is still rising in both US and EU, and there is no sign of slowing down. In fact there are signs that things could get worse.

This soaring price of everything has effectively increased the amount of panic in all markets, consequently a lot of newbies are selling their bitcoins; some are selling to cover their bills and some to fill their bellies.
On the other hand the other half are on the sidelines greedily waiting for the best price (which is the lowest price possible) to start buying bitcoin which is why the reversal has not happened yet. These people will continue waiting as long as the economy of the other half continues crashing.

Of course some "catalysts" could change this trend by providing an incentive for those on the sidelines to jump in sooner. Catalysts such as the halving.

We are also facing the first material stock market correction since the launce of Bitcoin. That's also a new parameter.

Without being impossible, I see it as quite unlikely, as long as you are referring to beating the $69k ath and going further. I think we'll go up we'll go up but we'll stay in the $20k-$50k range or so most of the time. They better couldn't paint things last year, when some predicted that by now we would be close to $0.5M, and look where we are now. So, little bit of growth from these levels, yes, sure. Bull market and beating ath? Don't think so.

For real, there are no signs of Bitcoin making any new All-time highs before 2024 Halving.
I would make a strategy for DCA for the next 12 months and then HODL it until 2025 Peak.
Max Bitcoin will do in 2023 is a mild recovery from maybe $10k to $22k? That's almost 120% gains.

The possibility that BTC will grow in 2022-2023 is possible because of the halving hype.  As we experience in the previous cycle, the Bitcoin price slowly recovers as the halving year comes.  So if the cycle tends to repeat again, it is possible that by the end of 2023, the Bitcoin price has slightly recovered from its crashing market.  The am not sure about the price growth because it tends to be different from the previous one.


Metaverse had been around for years now, and the hype had been long gone so I don't think metaverse as the reason of the possible growth of Bitcoin in the year 2022-2023 besides, it has nothing to do about Bitcoin.


I followed Bob Loukas 4 year cycle and according to him, the transition will likely happen in 2022-2023.  So bear market until 2025 does not fit the description of his 4-year cycle.

be aware of this
metaverse, is currently preferring NFT/tokens pegged to ethereum.. but ethereum is about to go through its own value crisis soon that will impact its underlying value and thus its speculative price above it. in a crash

changing from PoW (expensive to mine) to PoS(cheap to mine by atleast 2000x(their number of the 'energy reduction of 99.95%')) will cause alot of ethereum blockcreators to suddenly get cheap ether, because they are paying 2000x less electric.. whereby they will sell that ether cheaply and everyone will get in on it.
this can cause an oncoming storm for those that invested a good amount of fiat in ether to then buy the nft/tokens suddenly see their overall value decline.

what may transpire is then more wanting to have their altnets tagged/pegged/bridged/edged(choose your buzzword) to a better PoW chain.. aka bitcoin



rough lazy pen on paper math
current estimates of ether underlying value wil go from $xk, and down to..
404,952 validators(at time of posting) with a CPU power of 100w
5332 blocks a day
=~75 days for each validator to have approximately mined a block of 2 eth
=180kwh in 75 days for 2 eth. which on a bottomline electric cost bases of $0.04/kwh is about $7.20/2eth
or $3.60 per eth bottomline value cost so some lucky blockcreators

You see, the problem in this assumption is that bitcoin cannot rise without the stock market. There used to be no correlation between the two, but at some point big wall street players who made money on the rising indexes begun to invest more in risky assets. Before, bitcoin used to pump on its own, like in 2011 and 2013. There was no wall street in the space, no leveraged exchanges, no loan platforms and no stable coins, but there were bull and bear markets for bitcoin. They are still here just that they are started and ended by stocks because hedge funds have more money than normal bitcoin investors and can tip the scales if they want to and all the small players see that as an omen and follow.

This is retarded if you ask me but it's how the market works. One or two big players overleverage and get in trouble due to some real world problems, like they get sued for something unrelated to bitcoin, or their company is battling a takeover and they sell a few thousand bitcoins. Suddenly all those who were leveraged get liquidated and seeing the big drop all those who were saving up to finally get 1 bitcoin also sell at a loss because something big hast to be happening with bitcoin for all those people to sell.
Bear markets rarely have anything to do with bitcoin itself, but usually a lot with how confident or how scared investors are. Probably the only time it wasn't so was when Gox admitted they had no money because they got hacked and were lying to customers for months trying to raise money.

Bitcoin may not go all bullish until 2023 but it will definitely take us out of the bear market.
What it basically means is that we will soon see a bottom of bitcoin price and then start rising upwards.
But we will face many corrections inbetween and it will take quite some time to go back to the ATH level.
May be by the end of 2023 we can come out of the bear trend completely and start going bullish in 2024.
That's what I think and things can go differently ofcourse.

True!  All we can do is just speculate.  Give some predictions according to what we experienced last Bitcoin's 4-year cycle.  I have pretty much the same assumption.  It looks like we are about to see an end to the current Bitcoin's 4-year cycle in the following months.  We can possibly see a long sideways during this transition and some occasionally lower highs and lower lows until the market starts to pick up before the end of 2023 due to the hype of the incoming Bitcoin halving.

Unfortunately it's not really that different, but at the same time it's quite different as well. This time around the world is doing badly, back in those days the world was doing fine. I hear that there were tons of USDT sales that is causing all of this, and the fact that they can't be in all cash and they have to end up selling a ton of bitcoin in order to cover the withdrawals proves to us that they are doing this with cash they do not have.

If somehow USDT falls and it's not pegged anymore, then you should be ready for a crash likes of which we have never seen before, I mean under a thousand dollars. If that won't happen, then we should be fine and will recover.

Sounds plausible enough to me, it took approximately 2-3 years for Bitcoin to recover from 2018's crash, the scenario of a possible recovery somewhere between 2023-2024 looks reasonable to me. I'm only hoping that we survive till then because shortly after 2018's crash, I abandoned it altogether.

Why are some people suddenly remembering that USDT is shady? I mean all this time we all know Tether is not pegged to anything and they don't have nearly enough USD to convert all their centralized shitcoin to fiat 1:1 but ever since bitcoin price dropped everyone seems to have remembered this shady shitcoin and how its demise would cause a bigger drop!!! I'm just curious as to why you guys weren't talking about it when price was $70k for example?

currently, we can see the bear market might take a long and in my opinion yes, if the "real" world economy is not covering yet maybe the bitcoin price will still be in this position. we can take a look at the example after covid hit the inflation rate went high and the fed raised the interest rate after that there is war happened between Russia and Ukraine and you guys know that Russia is one biggest exporters of Gas and oil and as we can see that world still depend to this.

and of course, bitcoin usually touches a new all-time high after bitcoin halving but if the economy goes good maybe bitcoin can catch up and can take all-time high before halving

Metaverse has nothing to do with the Bitcoin cycle, Bitcoin is the one who controls the crypto market, not the other way around. Usually this cycle happens every four years after a halving, but this time I don't expect the cycle to last that long, there are many variables that entered the market and this may change some rules, entry Big companies and institutions to the bitcoin market has led to major changes in the rules so I expect the bear market to not last long and we will start to see the rise of bitcoin again before the end of this year. But it is likely that we will not see ATH until after the halving of bitcoin in 2024.

Sideways market will definitely happen this time and I think that we will soon see a little bounce back upwards.
But again we will have to struggle with the current sideways market for a few months before we find a bottom.
May be after that bitcoin will start to recover one correction at a time. I think it's time to take a break from the market while we sit back and relax.

Its not the first time that BTC goes down, Its the part things will go up and down regularly. But about your question, I think BTC can be expected to go up in next halves. I will predict  Between 2023/2024 BTC will go up to massive pump. lets wait and see the magic.

I think that 2023 will be a good year for BTC (arguments are presented in the thread)

The develpopment of digital technology, the search of a new thrive markets where obligations are slim, and in-stability of stock markets due to inflation will direct those, who are seeking a good investment into cryptocurrency. And there we all will benefit from.

 

While on the one hand I do believe that due to the advancements in technology and the recent publicity, cryptocurrencies received the past few years, Bitcoin would thrive. However, on the other hand, the ongoing economic recession, the war and the increasing inflation isn't a healthy environment for any kind of asset. Don't forget that cryptocurrencies are closely correlated with the stock market, thus, don't expect much if the situation doesn't improve.

The same reason why I haven't sold most of my holdings last December. Aside from being busy that Christmas month and new year preparations, I think I was just lazy to give myself proper time to convert. And I was also trying to convince myself that this time it will be different, with additional developments from nft, metaverse, web3 and more bitcoin adoptions in some countries.

Although there's still the possibility that it won't dip as much just like in 2018 and 2019.

I don't think there's a relation between NFT, Metaverse and Web3 with Bitcoin adoption since those projects created were just want to computing Bitcoin, if there's no NFT, Metaverse, and any other form of shitcoins, Bitcoin price will go to the moon since all people doesn't need to choose on the coins they want to buy.

I'm not going to believe you, the reason why many people doesn't want to sell their coins on the last December is they're believe Bitcoin will reach $100K at the end of the year.

The 4-year cycle is just like a safe haven for most speculations. It's been proven and seen that it really happens every 4 years for the crypto market to flourish and then after that, the bear.
But as volatility has been the characteristic of this entire market, it could also change for this year and next year. There could be a breaking cycle that might happen and we don't know if it will happen or not. Usually, it's all about the price that we want to discuss but no one give that answer that you might want to hear.

The market is predicted to stay on the bearish trend for longer time period. The four year cycle pattern repeats and upon the same once after the days of halving or close to the days we'll encounter a massive rise in the price of bitcoin. As a result we can expect the price to grow high during the 2023-2024 year than 2022-2023. If I'm not wrong we won't be completely on the bearish market, but there'll be slow growth until halving days. For now the halving schedule is for the year 2024 which has created big expectation.

I think the world economic crisis,won't drop bitcoin too deep . because precisely with the existence of bitcoin the world economy will be slightly helped. because people when the economy collapses a lot of people turn to investing in bitcoin. so my prediction in the future bitcoin price will be higher.

Definitely it will go up and down
and up down for a long time
But believe in a bright future all the time

I'm not convinced the bull market will kick off after 2024 halving anymore, I think it'll more likely be 6 months before then. Due to the established pattern (3 times now) that Bitcoin has risen dramatically after it's halving, it's now much more likely to be front-run as a "buy the rumour sell the news" event, given how the effects of the halving are effectively diminishing as well. Back in 2020 there was significantly less of a "guarantee" that Bitcoin would rise after it's halving, as it had only happened twice before so could easily be considered a coincidence rather than a pattern. So next time, it won't be the same anymore.

I'm also factoring in that I think the bottom is likely in (more likely than not), as it's been 15 months since the cycle top (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5406719.msg60598863#msg60598863). The bottom took slightly longer than usual due to overall confusion about the 4 year cycle and where the bull market top was (April or November). So factoring in a "traditional" years worth of consolidation from here, whether that be back to $50K before returning to $25K, or otherwise trading sideways between $20K and $30K, it'd more likely mean the bull-run begins end of 2023 rather than mid-2024.

Of course this is just my opinion, but sticking with the 4-year cycle theory, it'd be naive to only consider the bull market to have ended in November/December last year, as opposed to in April/May.

Bitcoin is volatile, but it rarely stays very low (in terms of percentage from the ATH) for a long time. So while 2022 might not bring great results (although I wouldn't be surprised if it will actually manage to recover within the remainder of this year), 2023 can easily be a bullish year. There are no good reasons why Bitcoin is currently down, nothing that would undermine it heavily came up. Even the Russo-Ukrainian war probably isn't to blame for the fall of the price, as the highest panic was in the first couple of months of the war, but Bitcoin was actually performing well, and since Bitcoin got a reputation boost from Ukraine's Bitcoin-friendly fundraising campaigns.

I think it would be basically early 2023. Think about it, we usually do not really wait as much as we used to wait, it gets closer and closer. This is why I believe that we are going to end up with shorter span right now, probably 2 years. That's why 2021 to 2023 it would make a lot more sense. Everyone acts as if 2017 to 2021 to 2025, and that's not going to happen to me, it is going to be something not so similar.

At the end of the day, we are going to end up  with a big improvement in 2023 because 2022 already saw the drop, hence we got rid of all the weak hands, and we are not going to see that many of these anymore, it is going to go up easier.

But you cant really stop people not to have those kind of presumptions that it might behaved on the same into those previous years we do have or simply sticking with those patterns and believing that it might really

happening once again but its better not to make our hopes up because it would really just frustrate you or annoy if ever these things wont really be happening on upcoming years to come but to presume
that halving event is really fast approaching although as i said that we might neither seeing significant price increase or not into those events or times.

Price is always been unpredictable and there's no way that we could make out some patterns and make out predictions which somewhat we are making ourselves so sure that it would be happening.
Thats not how this market works imho.

The popularity and demand of bitcoin has risen tremendously in the past few years. People recognise bitcoin as the ‘ultimate crypto’ with the most secure and reliable blockchain network and with the highest rate of growth. That is why even during the bear market, people are taking this opportunity to buy bitcoin, and its demand is increasing more.

I can relate but I don't think we will be out of the bear market until we are actually out of the bear market. What am I saying, if you look at January- march 2022 when this market was already in a dip, we could have believed that there is a reversal in play as BTC price went from around $33k+ to $48k+ and after that, the market started declining again. So, even what we are seeing now with BTC price might be the same and this is expected with price action even in Bull season, however, I do agree that the market might not see a new ATH until after the BTC Halving.

As I was saying earlier, we can see the signs of a potential recovery as bitcoin is currently trading around $23500.
There might be a chance that $20000 could have been the bottom of bitcoin if the price sustains the current levels.
In that case we might see repeated corrections with the price of bitcoin upwards in every correction.

The difference between having some sort of amazing improvement and having some sort of ignorance about bitcoins increase is the difference people who make a lot of profit and people who are too late.

Bull is a forgiving period, so you could not buy bitcoin from 20k to 50k and you would still get in and make money because then you would make money from the rest of the increase and then there would be plenty of weird coins and tokens that people would throw money at. This is why I have to say that we are at the verge of a bull run right now, it is already started, and people could wait and be too late, but we will make more money than them, and yet they will not make a loss neither.