I'm not convinced the bull market will kick off after 2024 halving anymore, I think it'll more likely be 6 months before then. Due to the established pattern (3 times now) that Bitcoin has risen dramatically after it's halving, it's now much more likely to be front-run as a "buy the rumour sell the news" event, given how the effects of the halving are effectively diminishing as well. Back in 2020 there was significantly less of a "guarantee" that Bitcoin would rise after it's halving, as it had only happened twice before so could easily be considered a coincidence rather than a pattern. So next time, it won't be the same anymore.
I think it would be basically early 2023. Think about it, we usually do not really wait as much as we used to wait, it gets closer and closer. This is why I believe that we are going to end up with shorter span right now, probably 2 years. That's why 2021 to 2023 it would make a lot more sense. Everyone acts as if 2017 to 2021 to 2025, and that's not going to happen to me, it is going to be something not so similar.
At the end of the day, we are going to end up with a big improvement in 2023 because 2022 already saw the drop, hence we got rid of all the weak hands, and we are not going to see that many of these anymore, it is going to go up easier.
But you cant really stop people not to have those kind of presumptions that it might behaved on the same into those previous years we do have or simply sticking with those patterns and believing that it might really
happening once again but its better not to make our hopes up because it would really just frustrate you or annoy if ever these things wont really be happening on upcoming years to come but to presume
that halving event is really fast approaching although as i said that we might neither seeing significant price increase or not into those events or times.
Price is always been unpredictable and there's no way that we could make out some patterns and make out predictions which somewhat we are making ourselves so sure that it would be happening.
Thats not how this market works imho.