The unpredicted rise of BTC in 2022-2023 despite predicted bear market

[pawanjain]

Bitcoin may not go all bullish until 2023 but it will definitely take us out of the bear market.
What it basically means is that we will soon see a bottom of bitcoin price and then start rising upwards.
But we will face many corrections inbetween and it will take quite some time to go back to the ATH level.
May be by the end of 2023 we can come out of the bear trend completely and start going bullish in 2024.
That's what I think and things can go differently ofcourse.

[BitcoinPanther]

Bitcoin may not go all bullish until 2023 but it will definitely take us out of the bear market.
What it basically means is that we will soon see a bottom of bitcoin price and then start rising upwards.
But we will face many corrections inbetween and it will take quite some time to go back to the ATH level.
May be by the end of 2023 we can come out of the bear trend completely and start going bullish in 2024.
That's what I think and things can go differently ofcourse.

True!  All we can do is just speculate.  Give some predictions according to what we experienced last Bitcoin's 4-year cycle.  I have pretty much the same assumption.  It looks like we are about to see an end to the current Bitcoin's 4-year cycle in the following months.  We can possibly see a long sideways during this transition and some occasionally lower highs and lower lows until the market starts to pick up before the end of 2023 due to the hype of the incoming Bitcoin halving.

[justdimin]

Most of us are really hopeful that bull run happens earlier than this 4-year cycle. Last year I planned on selling my bitcoin savings before the start of 2022 and will just buy back in late 2023. But I haven't. I convinced myself that things might be different this time. We have El Salvador and maybe some more countries this year or in few years. Adoption is bigger than before. We also have web3 and NFTs which also started in the gaming industry.

The current war in Ukraine and world crisis damage a lot of nations economies which lead to diminishing currency values and plummeting its stock markets. All of these make bitcoin becoming more viable and acceptable as a currency and as an investment.     

Unfortunately it's not really that different, but at the same time it's quite different as well. This time around the world is doing badly, back in those days the world was doing fine. I hear that there were tons of USDT sales that is causing all of this, and the fact that they can't be in all cash and they have to end up selling a ton of bitcoin in order to cover the withdrawals proves to us that they are doing this with cash they do not have.

If somehow USDT falls and it's not pegged anymore, then you should be ready for a crash likes of which we have never seen before, I mean under a thousand dollars. If that won't happen, then we should be fine and will recover.

[Ultegra134]

Usually the end of the bear market is somewhat after the bitcoin block halving. So it will happen if I'm not mistaken on block 840,000. So that will be around April-May 2024, most likely give or take some months, then we will see some recovery. So bull cycle might start around that timeframe 2024 and not 2025.

Not sure what you mean by this.

But this 4-year cycle theory may not consider the rise of a) interest in digital assets, b) possible metavesre market spread, c) the rise of productive capacity due to digitilized world and so - the interest in digital sector of economy

Still rise base on the basic tenant of supply and demand.

Sounds plausible enough to me, it took approximately 2-3 years for Bitcoin to recover from 2018's crash, the scenario of a possible recovery somewhere between 2023-2024 looks reasonable to me. I'm only hoping that we survive till then because shortly after 2018's crash, I abandoned it altogether.

[pooya87]

If somehow USDT falls and it's not pegged anymore, then you should be ready for a crash likes of which we have never seen before, I mean under a thousand dollars.

Why are some people suddenly remembering that USDT is shady? I mean all this time we all know Tether is not pegged to anything and they don't have nearly enough USD to convert all their centralized shitcoin to fiat 1:1 but ever since bitcoin price dropped everyone seems to have remembered this shady shitcoin and how its demise would cause a bigger drop!!! I'm just curious as to why you guys weren't talking about it when price was $70k for example?

[dansus021]

currently, we can see the bear market might take a long and in my opinion yes, if the "real" world economy is not covering yet maybe the bitcoin price will still be in this position. we can take a look at the example after covid hit the inflation rate went high and the fed raised the interest rate after that there is war happened between Russia and Ukraine and you guys know that Russia is one biggest exporters of Gas and oil and as we can see that world still depend to this.

and of course, bitcoin usually touches a new all-time high after bitcoin halving but if the economy goes good maybe bitcoin can catch up and can take all-time high before halving

[yhiaali3]

Metaverse has nothing to do with the Bitcoin cycle, Bitcoin is the one who controls the crypto market, not the other way around. Usually this cycle happens every four years after a halving, but this time I don't expect the cycle to last that long, there are many variables that entered the market and this may change some rules, entry Big companies and institutions to the bitcoin market has led to major changes in the rules so I expect the bear market to not last long and we will start to see the rise of bitcoin again before the end of this year. But it is likely that we will not see ATH until after the halving of bitcoin in 2024.

[pawanjain]

Bitcoin may not go all bullish until 2023 but it will definitely take us out of the bear market.
What it basically means is that we will soon see a bottom of bitcoin price and then start rising upwards.
But we will face many corrections inbetween and it will take quite some time to go back to the ATH level.
May be by the end of 2023 we can come out of the bear trend completely and start going bullish in 2024.
That's what I think and things can go differently ofcourse.

True!  All we can do is just speculate.  Give some predictions according to what we experienced last Bitcoin's 4-year cycle.  I have pretty much the same assumption.  It looks like we are about to see an end to the current Bitcoin's 4-year cycle in the following months.  We can possibly see a long sideways during this transition and some occasionally lower highs and lower lows until the market starts to pick up before the end of 2023 due to the hype of the incoming Bitcoin halving.

Sideways market will definitely happen this time and I think that we will soon see a little bounce back upwards.
But again we will have to struggle with the current sideways market for a few months before we find a bottom.
May be after that bitcoin will start to recover one correction at a time. I think it's time to take a break from the market while we sit back and relax.

[asimi.io]

Its not the first time that BTC goes down, Its the part things will go up and down regularly. But about your question, I think BTC can be expected to go up in next halves. I will predict  Between 2023/2024 BTC will go up to massive pump. lets wait and see the magic.

[Etranger]

I think that 2023 will be a good year for BTC (arguments are presented in the thread)

The develpopment of digital technology, the search of a new thrive markets where obligations are slim, and in-stability of stock markets due to inflation will direct those, who are seeking a good investment into cryptocurrency. And there we all will benefit from.

 

[Ultegra134]

I think that 2023 will be a good year for BTC (arguments are presented in the thread)

The develpopment of digital technology, the search of a new thrive markets where obligations are slim, and in-stability of stock markets due to inflation will direct those, who are seeking a good investment into cryptocurrency. And there we all will benefit from.

 

While on the one hand I do believe that due to the advancements in technology and the recent publicity, cryptocurrencies received the past few years, Bitcoin would thrive. However, on the other hand, the ongoing economic recession, the war and the increasing inflation isn't a healthy environment for any kind of asset. Don't forget that cryptocurrencies are closely correlated with the stock market, thus, don't expect much if the situation doesn't improve.

[inthelongrun]

The same reason why I haven't sold most of my holdings last December. Aside from being busy that Christmas month and new year preparations, I think I was just lazy to give myself proper time to convert. And I was also trying to convince myself that this time it will be different, with additional developments from nft, metaverse, web3 and more bitcoin adoptions in some countries.

Although there's still the possibility that it won't dip as much just like in 2018 and 2019.

[Despairo]

The same reason why I haven't sold most of my holdings last December. Aside from being busy that Christmas month and new year preparations, I think I was just lazy to give myself proper time to convert. And I was also trying to convince myself that this time it will be different, with additional developments from nft, metaverse, web3 and more bitcoin adoptions in some countries.

I don't think there's a relation between NFT, Metaverse and Web3 with Bitcoin adoption since those projects created were just want to computing Bitcoin, if there's no NFT, Metaverse, and any other form of shitcoins, Bitcoin price will go to the moon since all people doesn't need to choose on the coins they want to buy.

I'm not going to believe you, the reason why many people doesn't want to sell their coins on the last December is they're believe Bitcoin will reach $100K at the end of the year.

[blockman]

The question is simple: What do you think about the possibility that BTC will grow in 2022-2023 despite bear market predictions (some say it will take 4  year cycle, till 2024), and what would be the price of the growth?

The 4-year cycle is just like a safe haven for most speculations. It's been proven and seen that it really happens every 4 years for the crypto market to flourish and then after that, the bear.
But as volatility has been the characteristic of this entire market, it could also change for this year and next year. There could be a breaking cycle that might happen and we don't know if it will happen or not. Usually, it's all about the price that we want to discuss but no one give that answer that you might want to hear.

[KennyR]

The market is predicted to stay on the bearish trend for longer time period. The four year cycle pattern repeats and upon the same once after the days of halving or close to the days we'll encounter a massive rise in the price of bitcoin. As a result we can expect the price to grow high during the 2023-2024 year than 2022-2023. If I'm not wrong we won't be completely on the bearish market, but there'll be slow growth until halving days. For now the halving schedule is for the year 2024 which has created big expectation.

[Stella Mese]

I think the world economic crisis,won't drop bitcoin too deep . because precisely with the existence of bitcoin the world economy will be slightly helped. because people when the economy collapses a lot of people turn to investing in bitcoin. so my prediction in the future bitcoin price will be higher.

[CryptoSable]

Definitely it will go up and down
and up down for a long time
But believe in a bright future all the time

[dragonvslinux]

Bitcoin may grow in 2023/2024, but bitcoin halving is 2024 and bitcoin grows after halving, the growth is expected in 2024/2025, but that does not means 2023 will not be the for bull and bear market.

I'm not convinced the bull market will kick off after 2024 halving anymore, I think it'll more likely be 6 months before then. Due to the established pattern (3 times now) that Bitcoin has risen dramatically after it's halving, it's now much more likely to be front-run as a "buy the rumour sell the news" event, given how the effects of the halving are effectively diminishing as well. Back in 2020 there was significantly less of a "guarantee" that Bitcoin would rise after it's halving, as it had only happened twice before so could easily be considered a coincidence rather than a pattern. So next time, it won't be the same anymore.

I'm also factoring in that I think the bottom is likely in (more likely than not), as it's been 15 months since the cycle top. The bottom took slightly longer than usual due to overall confusion about the 4 year cycle and where the bull market top was (April or November). So factoring in a "traditional" years worth of consolidation from here, whether that be back to $50K before returning to $25K, or otherwise trading sideways between $20K and $30K, it'd more likely mean the bull-run begins end of 2023 rather than mid-2024.

Of course this is just my opinion, but sticking with the 4-year cycle theory, it'd be naive to only consider the bull market to have ended in November/December last year, as opposed to in April/May.

[kryptqnick]

Bitcoin is volatile, but it rarely stays very low (in terms of percentage from the ATH) for a long time. So while 2022 might not bring great results (although I wouldn't be surprised if it will actually manage to recover within the remainder of this year), 2023 can easily be a bullish year. There are no good reasons why Bitcoin is currently down, nothing that would undermine it heavily came up. Even the Russo-Ukrainian war probably isn't to blame for the fall of the price, as the highest panic was in the first couple of months of the war, but Bitcoin was actually performing well, and since Bitcoin got a reputation boost from Ukraine's Bitcoin-friendly fundraising campaigns.

[justdimin]

I'm not convinced the bull market will kick off after 2024 halving anymore, I think it'll more likely be 6 months before then. Due to the established pattern (3 times now) that Bitcoin has risen dramatically after it's halving, it's now much more likely to be front-run as a "buy the rumour sell the news" event, given how the effects of the halving are effectively diminishing as well. Back in 2020 there was significantly less of a "guarantee" that Bitcoin would rise after it's halving, as it had only happened twice before so could easily be considered a coincidence rather than a pattern. So next time, it won't be the same anymore.

I think it would be basically early 2023. Think about it, we usually do not really wait as much as we used to wait, it gets closer and closer. This is why I believe that we are going to end up with shorter span right now, probably 2 years. That's why 2021 to 2023 it would make a lot more sense. Everyone acts as if 2017 to 2021 to 2025, and that's not going to happen to me, it is going to be something not so similar.

At the end of the day, we are going to end up  with a big improvement in 2023 because 2022 already saw the drop, hence we got rid of all the weak hands, and we are not going to see that many of these anymore, it is going to go up easier.