Bitcoin Forum

Thought it was time that this analysis from a few weeks ago had it's own thread. We're currently still "on track" for $50K this year based on 2019 fractal. Should also add that I see the argument for a +50% move to around $36K with current rounding bottom formation and a breakout above $25K, but otherwise not convinced this negates the +80% target to $50K+ after reclaiming $30K, instead quite the opposite.

Similar to 2019 there was the initial +30% target to around $5.2K after breaking back above $4K, followed by another rounding bottom +100% target to around $12.8K once $6.4K was reclaimed. The only difference in this scenario is that these targets are overlapped; firstly to $36K, followed by reclaiming $30K to reach $50K. Goes without saying that targets are never guaranteed to be met, even if they often are.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/09/10/m1onv.png

Source: Posted TradingView (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/9YmlWD6g-BTCUSD-If-history-repeats-itself/), February 1st 2023 | Screenshot: April 11th 2023.

---

Updates:

---

In order to compare directly based on fibonacci retracements to 0.618 ($13.8K), here is the 2019 relief rally, prior to returning to $4K, for anyone unaware what happened back then:

https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/x/xIPW7BjZ.png

Disclaimer: This isn't intended to suggest the price will reach $50K, but simply comparing 2019 and 2023 bear market relief rallies and current progress, given the similarities so far. Don't make me point to the disclaimer.

Many people talk about a similar fractal in 2019 and 2023, but I don't think it's quite correct to compare these charts because at that time there was no global crisis, not even a Covid yet, so the whole world economy, including the stock markets, were operating very differently than now. We can say that now we are on the verge of a big recession and I personally don't expect any serious growth of bitcoin. Although I don't exclude that it might happen against the odds, as it has happened more than once.

It's very true that 2018 and 2014 bear markets were very different than 2022 with high inflation. In 2018 and 2014, without high inflation, Bitcoin price dropped 83%. With inflation, in 2022, price dropped around -77% (at least so far), so considerably less. It does mean that price may not increase as much as it did in 2019, simple because price didn't drop as much for example. But I still think a retracement to 0.618 is reasonable.

I'm otherwise still waiting for high inflation to be bad for Bitcoin during a bear market. Please let me know when this occurs (when price drops below $12K), but ideally not before then. Until then, given how Bitcoin has performed much better under the conditions of high inflation during it's bear market, compared to without, it's also possible to speculate it will perform even better with a recession. But only time will tell.

This is sort of separate topic (off-topic you could say) that I intend to start soon. But speculating why high inflation has been good for Bitcoin is probably best left until more confirmation of a bear market low (ie >$30K). Likewise speculating that high inflation, or a recession, is bad for Bitcoin would be best left until price drops more than -83% ("the usual amount") from it's previous all time high, so once it's drops below $12K.

People always say that this time is going to be different. I heard it and read about it multiple times and you can do it too, just look for some bear market posts from 2011, 2014, 2018 and so on.
You seem to still fall for it.

In 2014 it was to be different because never before had the biggest exchange go bankrupt. Also in 2014 China banned bitcoin and closed down all exchanges. Bitcoin was supposed to go to 0.

In 2018 it was supposed to be different because bitcoin pumped so much that people expected it to be the last bull market especially with the "new king" narrative from BCH shills. Bitcoin fees got so high that people had to pay more than $100 to push transactions. It was supposed to be the end with bitcoin going to $1000.

Then we had a covid crash and bitcoin lost 70% of its market price almost instantly when we were supposed to be out of bear market already with more than 7 months in 8-10 thousand range.

You think that this time is different because your field of view is too narrow. Daily or weekly price action means nothing for a volatile asset like bitcoin. Look at years. Nothing has changed when it comes to halving bull markets whether we get this small rally like in 2019 or not.

There are several factors affecting a market value of an asset which solely depend on demand. Each year indeed, there is quite of a pattern on period but I agree that same thing won't happen exactly as if it is repetitive. This market in general is way too unpredictable. Comparing is a good thing even if there will be no certainty. Common belief is enough to somehow from that slightest pattern. Perhaps halving; what happened before left an impression and as the next one is being anticipated, there is still that hype which would be taken advantage by investors. As mentioned, outcome won't be exactly the same but atleast that common belief could as well reflect to demand.

This time it also looks different because bitcoin went below 200 week MA and remains below it.
IMO, it's because because there are people trying to keep it there to delay a possible breakout. They know if we break above many traders will think the bear market is over and go back in with what they took out during the panic caused by 2 scammers of the year: Do Kwon and SBF.

OP's 2019 scenario is definitely possible. How probable though? I'd say only 50% because of the SEC manipulation. I believe there are rich and powerful people pulling the strings here, the ones that orchestrated SBF's business, because I strongly believe he was the face here, just like that pair charged with laundering Bitfinex money.

I always took that as a joke and a meme, said in a sarcastic tone meaning the exact opposite. That there will always be a bear market after a bull market and nothing changes.
Well maybe regulators have came into play. I am not sure if them trying to remove any pseudonymity /anonymity is all good dor the decentralized nature of crypto though.

I am sure some are genuinely believing that phrase and think that something massive and game changing is coming that changes the whole game, but i see those massive things coming and going too. And massive things are needed in order to reach another ath over and over.

Yes like I said before. It seems that 2022 was very similar to 2018. Many expected the low already in for Bitcoin prior to the FTX collapse just like people assumed $6K was support in 2018 and then the black swan event happened.

Then we had a echo bubble pretty much in 2019 where it peaked at $14K and many assumed that it would go to ATH again. And its also the macro which is rallying such as SP500. Many are pouring lots of money into the markets now because they think the fed will do a soft landing. However it's like a big bull trap when the music stops sometime in Q2 or Q3.

Everyone, of course, hopes to achieve the goal of 50k this year, but I see that it is difficult, not impossible, of course, but it is difficult, according to my point of view.

Although the market has recovered well during the last period, I still believe that we are far from achieving this goal this year, for many reasons, perhaps the most important of which are recession and inflation.
It is true that inflation can be a catalyst for the rise of the Bitcoin market due to people's tendency to store their assets in the form of Bitcoin instead of fiat, but at the same time inflation makes people spend more of their savings to cover the price hike resulting from the loss of the currency's value.

In addition to other basic and technical matters that make it difficult for Bitcoin to reach this number this year, but in the end nothing is impossible.

I believe that the $50,000 is very possible, especially in the last quarter of this month, but just in case it is not, the first quarter of 2024 will be the chance.
Because I believe that the Bitcoin block halving in 2024 is the biggest trigger for Bitcoin to reach again this kind of price level.

We are still in the beginning of 2023 but Bitcoin's performance is already superb, how much more if we will move on the third or fourth quarter of this year? I wouldn't be surprised if we can end this year with at least $50k in price per Bitcoin. This are all possible even if the history didn't repeat itself. Each Bitcoin halving has a positive impact on Bitcoins price.

This upcoming Bitcoin halving are said to help the price to reach 100k dollars. Everyone is so excited about it, this is why they are now filling their bags faster. They are wishing that this bear can still last a little longer because they are afraid that they won't see this price this low again.

Possible but is it probable, some think Jan is the determining month often.  So goes January so goes the year quite often so that'd imply bullish though this is main markets and in theory BTC is not aligned though I think we can see Dollar strength is inverse so in fact often BTC gains when other assets might also.  The proportion gains will vary and I think this year is positive but not a large gain year just yet.
  2019 we gained and lost it again so it was quite spiky in that respect, too fast a gain.  Here we are going sideways quite alot at the moment, a really simple look at that chart on weekly bars says 30k is a target within grasp and should be obtained.  We cannot speculate on gains beyond 30k because it hasnt happened to challenge this area yet, all we did so far is escape the downtrend and relief rally which is not enough to say more only maybe.

Indeed, I still consider 2019 a bear market relief rally. Price made a macro lower high and eventually returned to near the lows at $3.8K for eventual higher low. Black swan event aside, that's what happened, and even without the covid crash then price still returned to "the norm" around $6K to $8K that was the previous volume accumulation zone. Hence, if price does reach $50K, I'd be betting on it returning to $25K/$30K soon after.


Also agree on this. Hence my note for confirmation of a U-shaped bottom and +80% target would be above $30K, not before. I see the argument for a roughly 50% target to the upside towards $37K if $25K if broken, but additionally this hasn't been confirmed either, and imo it's not quite as clean a U-shaped bottom compared to the drop from $30K down to $16K and back to $30K. But that's just my opinion on the matter.

My general impression is that $30K won't act as resistance however as there is barely any volume there compared to $16K and $20K levels. Even between $30K and $40K there isn't much either. By comparison in 2019 most of the volume was still traded between $6K and $8K, but price broke through like a knife through butter. So ironically, it should be easier to break $30K than it was to break $6K back in 2019.

Looking at the similarities of 2019 and 2023 we could say that there is a good chance we could end up with a different situation in the long run, it may not be what we want to see, maybe 50k won't happen, but it could be a good year that we go up.

I know it is not that easy to make such a prediction, maybe it will happen and maybe it won't happen, we really do not know. But, I am guessing that it is going to end up with a good return in the long run if we wait, probably this year is just the start, next year it is going to be even better than that. Next year I am expecting it to pass the ATH price, and that would be when all the fun will start with it again.

As always, we can be deceived, and all the most interesting may happen in 2023. Everybody is used to the fact that the main growth starts after halving (though if we consider that almost all BTC coins are already mined, the impact of halving will only decrease) - so the main growth may happen in 2023. After all, many - myself included - expected bitcoin to finally rise in December 2021 (as 2013 and 2017) and we will have a strong altseason - but on December 4, 2021, history was rewritten.

The similarities show that there is a chance for the price to repeat its actions from the past, so we can't say that we can end up with a different situation, although that could be right and we might end up with that. $50k is a long way for sure from where the price is right now, but if it breaks the resistance and shows strong upward movement, we might end up crossing that limit by the end of Q2.

For a long-run expectation, you should not expect things to happen just within a year, keep an estimate of at least 3 to 5 years if you wish to get amazing returns on your investment and if you know that you got the ability to hold on to your assets.

Since we're probably and most likely out of the bear, this goes with the season of the end of year where most of times that it is when the surge happens.

Prior to the halving we might get some push at the last weeks of December by this year. I do believe that history will definitely repeat itself and if not then there's a likelihood that we shall see its pattern soon.

But with the situation that we're all experiencing right now, this is a lovely chart to look at.

From analysis, it is clear that bitcoin circle repeats itself and I see that these two years 2019 and 2023 looks similar. The last year bear market went so dip beyond the expected price and this might make bitcoin price to pump very high this year maybe towards the end of the year,we might see the price up to 50k. Bitcoin halving is expected to be next year but nobody knows if we are to experience it earlier than that. I am patiently accumulating and watching the movement of the price to see what this year have for investors. Anyway January was a good development in bitcoin price to start this year.

I wouldn't say we're out of the bear season yet. I mean, Bitcoin is still rebounding, while the general feeling is more positive as of recent, however we don't know what this year holds yet. It hasn't really started, and with the recession looming I wouldn't want to make a prediction based on any charts, since I genuinely believe we're in unprecedented times, which charts don't typically account for.

I guess I'm an outlier, and I'm not too bothered by the short term price performance, but it does look like a lot of users are coming to terms they'll need to wait a little longer to get their desired return.

Have you take a look at the 2015 chart? I think that's the similar thing rather than the 2019 one. Not that I mind it because in the long term we will see all time high once again, it's just a matter of patience and your tenacity to make it alive in this bear market. Not always optimistic but always ready on both scenarios.

I'm a strong believer of Bitcoin's 4-year cycle a.k.a. fractal pattern and think it is the single most important thing when trying to gauge Bitcoin's price in the future.  So far it's turned out to be a fairly accurate method of predicting. 

Sure, "this time is different" and I understand your point.  I also think that people should be wise to take note of the differences and keep them in mind should a recession truly destroy Bitcoin's market.  However, I am a believer that Bitcoin (and crypto) is a new asset class that's finding it's valuation.  I believe it's value is higher than today's valuation and think that the fractal pattern will continue as Bitcoin doesn't care about global chaos or recessions and there's even the possibility that rich people flock to Bitcoin as a safe haven in a recession, causing it's value to skyrocket.  I don't really believe that, but still think it's a good time to be a buyer, because the fractal is real.

I agree to you and that's why I think that we're just probably out of it since the trend is changing and we're staying at the top from the bottom that it has been.

And just as how unpredictable it was, we're on the same page that it's always been like that and these are just mere thoughts that I've got for the market.

At the end, just as you, I'm also looking forward to the long term and with the effect of the halving by next year. It's like my ticket why I'm optimistic for the next 1-2 years to come.

People do really love hunting for some patterns and similarities when it comes to those candles and lines comparing the past into the present.Well it cant really be stopped considering that market could neither have that kind of behavior but in overall we do know that this market is always been unpredictable.There's no way that we could really be able to know on where it would be heading even if we do see some similarities
when it comes to charting.It all matters about the demand and recognition on how this market would react and behaves.This is why on the time that you had stepped your foot into this market then you should
really be that prepared when it comes to the risk involved and attached to it.

we may see the similarities but don't forget that the situation today is now different, like how many users are into crypto or big companies that are involve in crypto-related business. in my opinion, each year is unique. we may see some situations to be happening again but they are not the reason to hope that it will be the same path again. we will see the aftermath once the year is over. also in any case, everyone is free to speculate and act accordingly.

This is how it works, better to be more ready for both scenario because the market is unpredictable and I choose maybe because of the market sentiment right now and there’s a possibility if the hype and pump continues. The previous trend will always be the basis and yes it might be the 2015 price trend since in 2025, many expect for the real bull run after the halving with Bitcoin.

Yes I have. The implication would be remaining in a range between $15K and $30K for the rest of year. There's nothing really exciting to provide fractal wise imo, it'd look pretty boring. Also while it's possible I personally find it unlikely. There was a lot more uncertainty back then in Bitcoin's infancy and it took a lot of time (11 months) to rebuild confidence in the market. 2019 rebound changed the game imo.

The reality is neither a 2015 nor 2019 style consolidation or recovery has confirmed itself in the charts yet as it's only been a few months since the potential bottom. If price where to get rejected by $30K and head towards $15K then rest assured I would open a new thread to suggest this possibility, rather than the idea of heading $10K. But so far, there is little to suggest this outcome is that likely.

Its looking a bit weaker today, failed to pass 24.5k and also staying below the 2 day average and confirming the weekly average for the highs.  If I hold BTC as acting positively I expect it to hold above weekly averages not below.   The signal for this higher patch of BTC prices to fall apart would be 23.5k being lost.  Next support I'd guess is early Feb lows of 22.8k   All of this is short term stuff and movements, if someone argued we are just going sideways I would mostly agree for micro and macro movements.

The market conditions are clearly unstable at the moment, the previous price gains were not able to last long enough and even I see that the possibility of a bearish trend could still occur, moreover the weekly chart of the BTC price still shows a death cross of the Moving Average indicator so that changes may occur the price suddenly comes from bitcoin at this time, for now it's better to watch and be aware of bitcoin price movements before buying because after all we don't want to get stuck in buying.

As a believe of the 4-year cycle, I believe that what happened in 2019 might happen again this year.

On the other hand, I don't think that it will reach that $50,000 price this year. It's possible still, but the chances of it are low (at least for me). It might reach that price next year.

Well, we are in a situation where the crypto market is performing better compare to where it was last year which is a sign of relief. What's good now is that, we are seeing Bitcoin signs of upward movement though it can't pass the $25,000 resistance as of this moment. We might see different price movements right now compare to where it was 4 years ago, but if we will look at the longer timeline, the pattern is still the same. Bear market-Sideways movement-Bitcoin halving-Bull Market.

Well, I think you're correct, the fundamentals back then was not quite strong compare to what we've seen today but aren't the regulations of SEC and others kinda looks the same as it was the uncertainty before? I mean SEC is throwing around on things that may create FUD in the market these days just because of that FTX meltdown, e.g., staking rumors to be banned, stablecoins issues as unregistered security etc. I think May or June will decide this if it breaks above the strong resistance at $25k, for now the sentiment is still on the bears side.

History repeats itself. Perhaps I was going to believe that but the things are difficult from a volatile market as it never have the path to where it going making us to think that this year is similar to 2019.

For some reason;
 - demand
 - adoptions
 - economic growth
 
These are the contributing factor that could affect the price movement of Bitcoin and to expect the same scenario is impossible, unless everythig was controlled by whales or someone that is capable of.

I completely agree, and I go further. Basing the alleged repetition only on what happened in 2019 is too weak. Even a prediction based on similarities between what may happen and what happened in 2019, 2015 and 2011 can clearly fail because of what is in bold. Something like that happened last year where everyone was predicting that the price would go much higher than it did, with predictive models of that style.

In the end, as they say in football, statistics are there to be broken.

If you mention about an unstable market condition, you should mention which market condition so that the direction is clear. Because if you don't mention about certain market conditions for certain products or assets, then it will be interpreted very generally by everyone.

But when you mean the market conditions for Bitcoin, it is clear that Bitcoin has never been stable in terms of price and that has not only happened at the moment, but has also happened a lot in the past because basically Bitcoin is not a stable coin whose price is very difficult move. And for now the price of Bitcoin on the market is still very close to the range of $ 24K, which means it is not too far from the price of $ 25K that was reached by Bitcoin this month. So I don't think Bitcoin is in a bad state right now because in general it's still very good.

Personally, I don't see how staking or stablecoin bans will effect Bitcoin, this will simply effect other cryptocurrencies. I know people will think this will be bad for all crypto and therefore Bitcoin, but instead it could be bad for crypto excluding Bitcoin. For example when Bitcoin is going down then hedge funds / exchanges collapsing and liquidating will directly effect the price, but if Bitcoin is rising, the situation may be very different.

Also to note 2019 was the year Bitcoin's market dominance increased from around 50% to 70% (+35%), after making a low around 40%, and I very much think the same dynamic can happen this year, by comparison from different levels from 40% to 55-60%. We've already seen a 10% increase from recent lows, and I imagine this is set to continue should Bitcoin continue to the upside. This could in turn mean  bans on exchange staking, stablecoins, even DeFi, could well cause money to flow out of these cryptos and products and back towards Bitcoin if it is considered a safe haven and immune from direct scrutiny from the SEC. Obviously in a bear market money will flee back to fiat, but when Bitcoin is in a bull market and unaffected by these regulatory issues, then that money is more likely to flow back into Bitcoin. At least, imo.

The fact that Bitcoin hasn't really claimed any market dominance back since the highs in 2021 tells me that it has a lot of ground to make up and this may well be the cause that helps it achieve this.

https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/h/hZpYAsph.png

Just like Bitcoin's price, it's market dominance appears to flipping bullish again after around 20 months consolidating near the lows, with the usual bullish divergence on various indicators.

I couldn't agree with you all but I also believe in the 4-year cycle of the market yet I wasn't really confident to see the same path again. Of course, the current situation is even better than last year as we are recovering from the bear season. Yet, we can't just say that we are moving far from the last year's situation, and anytime, the price of Bitcoin might drop again.
I'm not too much believer about the history repeat itself because it was to hard to rely on it from unpredictable market.

Well, we're in a speculative market and most things that we see is all about speculations. Sometimes they're right and sometimes, they're all wrong.

Volatility means a lot that no one can exactly time the market and give an accurate prediction. But, what's the beauty of it is that everyone who's giving some points, speculations and predictions are great to read and study.

Probably not the exact same scenario but almost the same price trend, this has been the situation on many market like stocks and forex so I believe its also possible to see in cryptomarket the same picture even if its on a different level or different volatility. The demand and supply will always affect the market trend, the adoptions will also play a big role as cryptomarket is still not accepted by many while the economic growth also matter as we are about to rise from the pandemic downfall.

It is still difficult to compare the past with the future, apart from the fact that they are very different. Isn't it true that as time goes by bitcoin goes up and up and there is a repeated occurrence? in Bitcoin's value? I think most people know, don't they?

Perhaps the only thing that happens repeatedly is the increase and decrease of its value in the market, then every time the bitcoin halving comes, the value of bitcoin increases repeatedly in a way that we don't expect will always happen that it will reach this price.

Why wouldn't it though? That's the question we need to ask ourselves, why wouldn't bitcoin repeat itself? It has the capacity to go up like that and it has the potential to double once again, even quadruple along the year.

If you remember 2019 good enough, you would know that 14k was seen that year, which means that we started at 3.5k, reached to 14k but dropped to 7k, and if you applied to this year, we could see 16k becoming 64k for a while before dropping to 32k. Maybe not exactly like that, but I can see the price going above 40k for a while and I think it is going to end up with a good amount of return for most investors who get in right now and earlier.

Yes, there are always surprises in investment, so as long as we prepare a plan for two scenarios, we will never panic and fall into a passive position. Cryptocurrency is just a game of patience, as long as whoever can endure it the best, the reward will go to that person. Many people say investing is not easy, but if you know how to wait patiently, it's easier than we think.

Yes the market situation is very volatile at the moment. The Bitcoin market has been bullish since the beginning of the year but now we are in a dumping market. Although the market has increased a lot in the first stage, now the market has started to go down again, how much it will go down is not accurately understood. Maybe by the end of this month or quarter we'll see Bitcoin maybe around $30,000 to $40000. And yes before investing you must consider the market conditions.

The meaning of not being easy in investing is holding back and waiting for the desired price more patiently besides having to have sufficient capital at the start. Now investment must be considered as important because everyone should also know that some Cryptocurrency assets are indeed worth bringing into investment and can create a brighter future if it is profitable.

I think that 2023 will be much better than 2019, because if we take Bitcoin as an example, I still believe that the potential for Bitcoin will increase more this year so that it will be very different from 2019. I believe this is because there are more people who have started to see Bitcoin as a more important investment asset so that some developed countries are willing to look at Bitcoin to create a different future in their respective regions.

Being volatile is staple in cryptos so you guys shouldn't be shocked at all when you see saw the price moves in up and down direction. We are still bullish as long as we don't go below $20k. As of now the price is at $23k and it seems that there are no signs that it will fall down there but it was still ready to climb back to $24k and $25k at any moment.

Many are expecting that Bitcoin will end this first quarter with a $30k in price. That's not bad but $40k and onwards could likely be seen on the 3rd or 4th quarter of the year because I am sure that there are lots of corrections that will come along after. Investing in Bitcoin can be done in any market conditions because it will still recover and pump more in the future.

I'd never expect a huge pump or dump as well and the situation isn't really good for short-term holders as they certainly are taking to hold longer time than the usual thing they do. The market will just be showing huge changes when there is another market drama like a scam, FUDs, and manipulations but something we have missed it this February making the price movement very slow. But I never say it was unfortunate yet it was a good chance for the investors to accumulate more before the huge pump kicked on.

Besides requiring patience, we also have to be able to hold promising coins that can give us future profits. But many people can't be patient and have strong hands holding their bitcoins and waiting until the price increases. So if this year is pretty much the same as 2019 but those people still can't hold their bitcoins until the price goes up, they can't get the desired results. And at a time when the market is still volatile as it is now, it requires more patience and waiting for the market to recover and be able to get another long rally fully.

Everything could possibly change and all the said factors could trigger the market to look not the same. Maybe for some events, it looks the same but the entire year's performance could be really far different from what we have experienced in the past. And even thinking of $100k in the next ATH might not happen because a huge number of investors now are not having the same mindset as before. Well, that adoption is really a big contributor to the market changes.

Do you know that know specific proof to show that Bitcoin will reach such magnitude height in 2024,we all just pre assumed such because we have experience or witness Bitcoin accelerating in some point of reaching or turning four years, base on my understanding, i believe that what determines the acceleration of Bitcoin is the determinant of the demand of Bitcoin and the quantity supply usual.

The saddest part is when people start understanding the value of waiting, but then do it for a shitcoin and lose a lot of money and start considering that as a wrong move. The reality is that holding is great, but if you are holding a shitcoin then the problem is not with the waiting but about picking the right thing, it will end up with a trouble.

However, if you end up with something much better, like bitcoin or ethereum, then holding is actually quite good and should be valuable lesson for sure. I personally believe that the best thing to do is providing people with a good return in the long run with good coins, and for that to work we need to make sure we promote bitcoin and the likes.

I think the biggest reason for that type of prediction is the fact that we have seen the similar kind of movements before and that means we are expecting the similar kind of movements to happen yet again. It literally resembles what has happened twice already, and this is going to be a third time that it happens, not saying it has to be exactly how it happened before, but just the direction at the very least.

This is why I believe that even though we may not look awesome right now, and even though maybe our predictions could be wrong in the end, it's just our prediction, I believe it will be fine and go up during 2024 but that is just a prediction and nothing more.

Choosing the right coins is not hard but many people think that "what if the next bull season will be the same as before where shitcoins are rising multiple times than Bitcoin and ETH". They have some reason and I believe that was possible but the risk is to high and the possibility of losing our money as well because what if it never happens?
However, choosing Bitcoin and potential altcoins is the safest investment compared to shitcoins, especially if we are holding long-term. And I encourage people to stop thinking history repeats itself as it might not happen in crypto.

One of the main reason on why people do really tend to gamble out with shitcoins which is specially with meme coins is that they are really that aiming that thousand times multipliers and make themselves that rich.

This is the actual reason on why they arent tending to secure themselves into those top and established coins but rather chasing up into those low caps which it doesnt assure out the success rate.

It is really just depending on a certain individual though because not all could really be able to handle the risk and some do really love on playing safe at least, not totally safe but rather less risky.
History could neither repeat or not and there's no way that we could really be able to tell on what would happen in the future.

Everything in this world is relative, not absolute, it's all speculation and hope. We have no basis for predicting the future other than based on history, I believe history will repeat itself until new history is formed. History repeats means bitcoin has fallen and will rise again after that, we can't claim that history will repeat itself in every detail. Maybe the 4-year cycle will change, but eventually, bitcoin will rise again and hit a new ATH is still called history repeating itself.

If we pay attention then many things are unique because price trends look the same, of course not the same value but the movement charts are often the same, and in my opinion what happened in 2023 is almost the same as what happened in 2019 or the 4 year cycle, we'll see if there are any surprises bigger again in 2023 so prices can rise.

As an update to OP, here is the current outlook of 2019 and 2023 comparison (based on in proportion fractal and when the yearly low was created):

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/09/10/m1Cmc.png

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/9YmlWD6g-BTCUSD-If-history-repeats-itself/

As you can probably just about make out, last month when price was at $25K we were very much in-line with the 2019 fractal, whereas now we are "falling behind" you could say. While I never expected this fractal to play out in exactly the same time-frame as 2019, as 2022 bear market was considerably different for starters, we are still within a bull flag consolidation at the highs.

The invalidation of this fractal would likely be a break of $21.5K (previous high low). Whereas for now, price has continued to make higher highs and higher lows on short-term time-frame.

I agree that cryptocurrencies are a game of patience, but the presence of spot exchanges certainly gives us the opportunity not to be missed if the price skyrocketes, for example after buying and then selling with a profit of 15% or more, as long as we are patient we will be profitable, unfortunately nowadays many people have it easy panicked because he saw FUDs on social media.

I corroborate what you have said. We should never invest in crypto depending on any news on social media. Because this type of fraud has spread widely in recent times. Especially with the advent of AI, their impact has increased. An investor should take a decision on his own based on his knowledge and after learning through various types of research. As far as I know, if some one trade depending on the signals given by others, he will face huge losses.

Depends on your actually since not all would really be just the same when it comes to long term investment approach on which there are people who are really that not that patient when it comes to their
investment which means that they would really be tending to deal up with the price in short term manner which means that researching and in depth review is a must. Speaking about 2019 vs 2023 then
we dont know if history would repeat or not but whether it would happen or not then always make yourself that versatile for whatever instances or things that you would be facing up.
This market is unpredictable and there's no way that you could handle it out easily.

Bitcoin is indeed unique and often the same and recurring trends, which is popular, of course, is a 4 -year trend price skyrocketing and then the following year drops, and if in 2017 the price skyrocketed and 2018 is in the lowest and at the end of 2019 starting recovery, hopefully in 2023 it can Like 2019 and towards recovery, it is natural that many people believe that the price will reach $ 50K at the end of the year.

And then we assume that everything goes the same as before and then think that the next ATH will be even higher than the last time.
Whether it was right or wrong, nobody knows exactly but at least we take action and anticipate the upcoming bull season, and filling our bags is a great idea. But as we have seen the trend these days, the market is quiet, with no FUDs, no market drama like exchanges scams - perhaps it was very calm which I think was not good. I'd rather like to see the market full of drama to make it more appealing and active, and most of all, it attracts curiosity to the community and possibly bring more demand which could uplift the price.

The recovery in 2019 was far more consistent then at present I think though recent moves appear larger then they are and will matter less in retrospect.   Good reaction today to the 200 day average forming the lows and to confirm this as a positive move I want to see BTC price action trade above 20750 for this weekend into next week; this will give us the best chance moving positively forward.
  Ideally we need to recover 21500 from here on, even that much will take something extra to push against and above a descending trend in place since mid Feb.

History is still repeating itself, but it will be a little different, in 2019, we have no war, no crisis, no inflation… as it is now, so we cannot expect bitcoin to repeat precisely like 2019.
I still believe history will repeat itself, bitcoin still makes new ATHs after the halving, and that's when the world economy enters the recovery phase.

2023 is going to be like 2019 but don't we think $50k is too much of a recovery, if that's achieved this year then what's left for 2024 then. Lets not forget the recovery takes more than one year because the all time high doesn't get crossed until a year after halving which is 2025 therefore we still have the whole of 2024 for a recovering to commences.

I think this year is going to be bullish but not as bullish as the OP is projecting, $50k would be achieved next year not this year but this year would be somewhere around $30-$35k. This too can be considered bullish considering where the price is recovering from.

For this year there has been a gradual recovery that has occurred in bitcoin, although market conditions have also experienced a small correction and currently bitcoin is starting to be pressured at a price of $ 20K, if you look at the recovery process that took place at the beginning of the year to date, then to reach a price of $ 50K will be it's a bit of a stretch and there hasn't been any approach or process that's likely to bring bitcoin to that price, let alone no signs of anywhere near $30-$35K in the near future.

Not that important for the price of bitcoin this year in my opinion, but what we do will take bitcoin to the next ATH milestone and that means we should be able to spot opportunities before they become more bullish and a correction opportunity may be used to make a purchase.

Some say March is not a good month to expect bitcoin price to break through a lot of resistance. I think part of their opinion is right, and in fact the market also got FUD impact during March at this time.

It's hard to expect $25K to hit during March, but I can expect it to be better in April or before the middle of the year. $30K will be reached, it will definitely take time and need more demand, but let's hope the market will recover after the $19K drop in the previous 24 hours.

With price back at $20K, price is in need of (another) +20% impulsive move back above 200 Day MA in order to return to 2019 fractal, which admittedly at present looks unlikely.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/09/10/mrxmC.png

Something like this would be needed to continue the imminent uptrend, but instead of being against USDC, would need to be against US dollar  :D

https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/0/0hJSNoj0.png

My only thought for today is whether a USDT implosion, following the USDC sell-off, could cause another +20% move to the upside, back to around $24K.

As I recall, the main rise in the bitcoin price began in 2019 around April 1, 2019. The Fed is due to meet on March 22, 2023. If the rate is raised by 25 points and not 50 (as many expect), we may see a nice rise in the bitcoin price. We will see soon - what will happen.

The price trend shows such a good indication that we are most likely to be going up rather than moving down. I won't just expect $24k but $25k...lol
Honestly, we can't be sure that the USDC sell-off will affect the market long term. If this will sustain until next quarter, that be a huge bump in the market but I don't think this is enough to lead the market to a bullish one. This is a twist on the market history and something to note that not all happen in the past will also happen in the current days.

Lots of interesting and unique facts about bitcoin price trends, of course what is commonly known by people is the 4-year upward trend that has occurred several times, it's only natural that we will study previous trends because it is proven to have the same pattern or graph, if we look at it at the beginning In 2019 and 2023 there will be many similarities until now and hopefully the price will rise again starting from April.

So the market needed a +20% impulsive move back to the upside after re-testing the 200 Day MA, in order to stand a chance of continuing a parabolic run to the upside similar to 2019 fractal, and so far it looks like in the past couple of days we got exactly that. It's not something I was expecting, as already happened back in January, but it does put higher targets such as $50K this year very much back on the table imo.

https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/4/4EhIT1oM.png

Will update OP with up to date chart when BLX updates, but otherwise we're back in the "bull flag consolidation" price level. Maybe some short-term consolidation before finally breaking $25K?

I really do not think we need to compare the 2023 bitcoin price movement with that of 2019 as both times were different, the bitcoin adoption was at a different level and also the economic situation of 2019 and 2023 can never match. Therefore, i don't pay any attention even if we see some similarities in price movement of bitcoin.

Yes, i agree that we should wait for CPI data which will be released tomorow and the Fed meeting on 22 march and should not fall for this massive pump which is in place now. It could turn out to be a fake out if the numbers did not come out as expected.

There could be patterns but doesnt mean that it would really happen on the present or in future but somehow having these patterns do somewhat give us some idea on what are the things that might happen.
This is where most people been clinging on, on where they do believe that on upcoming years it would really be taking on the same path.This what makes really hard on dealing up with this market where
everything is unpredictable but well if it was predictable on the first place then getting rich would really be that easy. Take it slow and be sure on what
are the actions you would be doing.

Its not a bad comparison, 2019 was a reflex reaction upwards after almost the whole of 2018 was negative, similarly 2022 was quite negative almost entirely.  However I think we are more obstructed this time, volume is in our way and we are sub 200 week average which to me says its a greater fight this time.

Well , we will see if we keep breaking resistance after resistance this time we could go similar to what happens in 2019 but remember that before the halving occured next year we could have really a weak support as everyone looking for a boosting price but getting nothing but a gradual downward.

Looking good now with $24k, it's $20k though a couple days ago and that's how the charts works.

I think by all accounts we are in for a well-documented and well-founded speculation that history repeats itself. We are in March and there are many positives, optimism... and also a lot of negative news that is likely to increase short-term pressure. $25k is a major breakthrough in momentum bitcoin has achieved this year. But we will fix it soon on the trend. I still think that the possibility of us reaching $ 50k is very possible.

Bitcoin is always interesting and there are many facts that can become hot and trending topics, if we look at the price chart, of course there are many similarities between now and 2019, of course this is because of the 4-year trend that often repeats itself.

Many make conclusions about bitcoin, of course what we hear most often is the trend that occurs every 4 years, namely the price will skyrocket and has happened 3 times, namely in 2013, 2017 and 2021, then another unique fact the price will drop more than 50% after the year and it seems that the price pattern that occurs is indeed very interesting for us to observe and conclude. and I think there are a lot of parallels that we can make between 2019 and 2023.

It is possible that the manipulators will repeat 2019 to a certain point (as they did in 2021, which repeated 2017 until December 4, 2021, when history changed). So the possibility of a repeat of the underlying pattern is worth considering, but should not be completely relied upon.

I don't think we'll see $50k this year. But it certainly could happen. Plenty of time left in the year for sure, I just assume some events will knock it down here and there so maybe it only reaches $45k this year. I would definitely expect $50k to be hit next winter though. I think the price will actually be near the ATH by the time the halving occurs.

We haven't even crossed $30k yet, $50k expectations are very high compared to this year. In the context of world economic uncertainty, it is difficult to promote the recovery of financial markets and including bitcoin. We cannot make a price prediction for the end of the year, what I am expecting in the short term is for bitcoin to hit $30k this month. When the economy is extremely volatile, it is safer and more realistic to only make short-term predictions.

More or less still tracking the 2019 fractal with a month delay. Bitcoin had another impulsive move after finding support from 200 Day MA post golden cross, this time it was +30% rather than +20%:

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/09/10/mrbSo.png

Price is now coming close to the 0.236 fib retracement level around $28K which was the initial capitulation level that would need to be reclaimed in order to confirm (further) U-shaped bottom. While many expect some consolidation or pull-back from here, typically after breaking key resistance (in this case $25K) and reversing a long-term bearish trend, Bitcoin usually continues it's parabolic run as opposed to consolidates.

Am otherwise not convinced price will get rejected by $30K if high volume is to follow and instead more likely to get to around $34K to $36K (previous support zone) before seeing a notable correction. This is based on a continuation of an impulsive move that previously in 2019 was an initial +70% to the upside from low to high prior to a pull-back and consolidation. $36K is also the +50% measured move target from inverse head & shoulders pattern after breaking $25K. This all remains very theoretical until $30K is reached, but so far the +24% this week remains a strong move, even if lacking break-out volume.

At some other point I'll present arguments for price topping out in the short-term around $40K before returning to $30K, prior to eventually getting to $50K, either later in the year or early next year.

the question is whether the sector or bitcoin holders from 2019 are still the same, as well as a lot of news or new things that are adopting bitcoin, if history is going to repeat itself then people should be patient waiting for that, but what we see here we also have to pay attention to the surrounding conditions because it also has an impact on the crypto market, such as the big news of the Russia-Ukraine war, then the SVB collapsing recently.

I don't think it matters if bitcoin holders are left over from 2019 or not. What is being compared is the price chart, which tends to repeat itself sometimes. So for now we can say that the 2019 fractal has started to repeat. But no one knows what kind of continuation the chart will have. In 2019 there was no crisis or even a covid, the economy was stronger than now.

Bitcoin trends often repeat themselves with interesting patterns, of course we must understand that the patterns that occur are of course in accordance with market conditions, the average daily transaction volume of more than $ 40 billion makes us believe that no one controls prices, so accusations that prices are manipulated or controlled by several people or exchanges then the news is a lie.

Have updated OP now price has reached $30K, which is currently the level for confirming a U-shaped recovery based on 2019 fractal.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/09/10/mrh9f.png

Interestingly enough the 3 weeks of consolidation looks a lot more like the consolidation in April 2019 around $5K prior to breaking $6K than the previous consolidation around $25K. As with previous bull flag style consolidation around $25k, price instead broke to the downside back to $20K. Whereas the recent consolidation under $29K has instead broken to the upside, similar to in April 2019.

Despite many still thinking that a $50K target sometime this year is too high, it instead could be too low, with instead the target being re-testing the highs around $60K prior to a considerable correction:

https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/k/Kc5plCtS.png

I only reference this in-case we see a quick move to $40K in the coming days / next week, then it could well suggest a quick break-out to $40K could lead to a parabolic move to $60K rather than $50K, as realistically it should take longer to break-through $40K than a matter of days or a week, if the target is around $50K, which for now remains on schedule for May/June this year.

The black-swan style capitulation to $20K (above fractal) can be ignored, but I think if the highs can be re-tested then a return to at minimum $30K remains likely. History rarely repeats itself, but it often rhymes.

Great thread here. I was honestly considering this but I wasn't exactly using indicators but only checking "halving trackers" on twitter and trusting my feels. I feel like we will definitely hit 38k-40k from now on as OP suggested. But I am still thinking about sudden retesting around there. I am trying to find a place to sell some of my coins to reenter but it feels too risky eventually. 60k seems too unrealistic to me, I mean can we pull that much attention to crypto now when rates are damn high? But in long run I guess many investors are gonna be happy. Everything seem positive for hodler.

That is something I considered as well, I mean think about it we are talking about a situation that is making us profit thanks to going up, and going up alone. So, I wanted to see how the year is looking and how we could increase, I think this type of increase is likely and we will probably see 40k this year.

It is already above 30k and we are not even at summer yet, we have more than half of the year remaining and we are already nearly at double since the start, this should provide a proof that we will be doing fine. A lot of people do not consider this as a big deal, but I find it a big deal, doubling within 4 months means that we should be able to do a lot better for the rest of the year and reach a big high price.

Generally speaking based on the previous to bear market recoveries of 2015 and 2019, then $40K would be a relatively "fair average" to reach this year, while ending the year around $30K.

If price consolidates sideways for a year like in 2015, then we'd basically be in a range between $30K and $15K, ending the year around $30K. Whereas if price has a strong recovery to the 0.618 retracement like in 2019, the target would be around $50K, before a correction back down to around $30K. Ironically both scenarios leaves price at around $30K by the end of the year, unless something completely different occurs.


I wouldn't say reaching $30K is enough to prove price is doing fine, price needs to break this previous long-term support level between $29K and $32K and at the moment we are merely surviving within it. It still remains more than possible that price gets a strong rejection here and returns to the lows, even if new lows aren't made and it wouldn't be until 2024 that we see $30K level again!

I however think it's more likely to reach $40K or $50K purely as I think the idea of a 2015 style 1 year sideways consolidation is a bit outdated for Bitcoin these days.

Many thanks OP,  you have made a great effort to create this thread and it is really interesting but regarding the comparison of charts between 2019 and 2023, I completely disagree although they could be similar but only in temporary periods due to market’s condition changes frequently, the numbers of investors as well , whales and crypto traders…etc  . My point of view is the history is impossible to be completely repeated especially when it comes to Bitcoin. From 2019 to 2023 ,  a plenty of different events have happened. It had started with the global economic crisis due to the effect of Covid virus, the price decreased to less than $10k and then we had seen the bull run when Elon musk has invested in crypto and manipulated the whole market.

It wont go upto as far as 40k this month, I believe if we refer back to prior lows on the weekly chart each bar in most months of 2022 aligns with a price in the mid 30's.  That sudden appearance of prior volume should be enough to hit the buffers for this particular run up in price action for BTC.
   If anything if we were to move too far past that point it'd halt there and retreat downwards more violently I think.  Better to run in loops of a predictable orbit that doesnt throw off too many people, not too erratic or volatile that it roughs up traders with sudden changes in price like harsh Monday sells etc.

Manipulation is never been new considering that this is evident on other markets which its not really that shocking anymore.I do agree about those changes been mentioned which we could really tell that this is something
that would really be similar in speaking about repeating on the same path or behavior on where prices could eventually go. Yes, they might be sharing up on the same movement or path but there's
no way that we could tell that it would really be precisely just the same on what we are seeing now. Charts could be compared and we could make out some comparison and able to
look those similarities but it would really be just staying up on that point only.

that's my take on this. we may find few similarities in the graphs, however, the situation today is different from few years ago. the adoption itself is different in numbers. big news and other crises that we have experienced after 2019, that's a lot to change the course of the market. maybe, we can refer from its past performance, but it doesn't mean we will rely from it for our future plans. that's actually not very smart to do.

As far as I can tell, the adoption in numbers reflected by Bitcoin addresses continues to increase. It's just no reflected in price, as per usual with funamentals. Overall every cycle has been different, especially the recovery years, whether it be sideways for a year or a sharp relief rally followed by a sudden drop. The point of the topic is that at present, price is following 2019 rather than 2015 right now.

Of course if price were to crash back down to $15K, there would be more of an argument for price following 2015 style consolidation for a year, as opposed to a parabolic relief rally. As I've said previously, if we are to take the average of 2015 and 2019 consolidation years, then price would only reach $40K and likely end the year at around current prices based on both fractals combined.

Yes, in my opinion, the history of 2019 is now repeating itself, but it is unlikely to repeat itself completely. November 2021 was similar to November 2017, but December 2021 was completely different. History repeats itself to a certain point, but at some point it changes dramatically.

I think it is more than enough to provide proof that it is doing fine. People expect so much from bitcoin, we are nearly at the double price of the bottom, what else do you want it to be? If you really want to see it break over ATH then maybe that is not enough for you but the reality is that we are talking about something that is already going great.

This is why I believe that we shouldn't really consider this as a problem, being in 30k is great and we should already start celebrating about it, sure if it goes higher that would make me even happier but as long as it doesn't go down anymore then I would be happy about it no matter what. This is the way we should approach it for our mental health and be happy all the time.

It's not to do with what I want to do happen, it's simply based on what I think are the possibilities that will happen. I see either $50K as likely or consolidating between $15K and $30K as a possibility. Somewhere in between would be reaching $40K before a pull-back. Sure I'd benefit from taking profit around $50K, but if there is instead consolidation until next year I'd also be more than happy with that result.


Personally I don't see reaching $30K as anything to celebrate, but more so that this was the likely outcome by Q2 this year, whether price reached $10K or $12K or not. Instead I'd be disappointed if we hadn't reached $30K this year, because this would suggest there is something fundamentally wrong about Bitcoin. Instead, Bitcoin has confirmed itself as a cyclical asset that isn't affected by much else apart from itself.

I think we need to start with the same analysis as the rest of the year, and the last two are mostly similar and still in 2018, 2019 and 2018. And there's no way to make any conclusion about what will end up in future periods of time, the main difference being that if you think about the future we would still consider 2018 for a bull market, even with just a little more time, that would be too small, if you look at it from the start. 
 
So, again we'll assume that the 2018 was 2018, so I think it may not last long. 
 
So, I'd go with the latter, in order to just compare the two in terms of a bullish market or bear market like the last two have shown.

aside from the chart, I think we should also know that the 2019 bullrun was mainly motivated with institutional investors and big investment company putting their fund massively into the cryptocurrency and also participate heavily in the developing of the ecosystem, heck even samsung are also participating in developing platform or an app for cryptocurrencies back then.
it was massive, and every companies are try ahead to make investment bigger than the other company in cryptocurrency which also cause the bitcoin price to sky rocket really high and eventually luna collapse and series of big cryptocurrency company collapse ends this bullruns.
I wonder if the history gonna repeats itself once again I wonder what kind of thing gonna motivate the next bullrun, bitcoin having bullrun again is most certainly possible but the money needs to come from somewhere.

If we look at the chart then bitcoin often makes repeated price patterns, for example is a fantastic rising trend that occurs every 4 years then drops the following year, this of course makes it easier for us to guess the price that will occur next, of course not 100% accurate but be a big picture that the trend will continue to repeat itself.

This pattern is very obvious, but at the same time if we take a look at the previous bull runs we will notice that the strength of those trends is getting weaker and the volatility is going down as well, something that is not bad because this could attract other investors that may not like such high volatility.

So it is likely that the next bull run is not going to be nowhere near as intense as the previous ones, a thing that will not affect investors too much, but it could force traders which have high goals during that particular part of the cycle to take additional risks during that period and trade shitcoins or use leverage at the time.

Bitcoin can reach to 50k$ very soon but now in the year 2023 we did not have seen any rise up to 50k$ May be in coming months it happens but in my opinion it will take some times.

In 2024 there is a greater chance of bitcoin to reach the 50k$ because in next year halving will take place so all those who have still hold their bitcoin will be in advantage so selling at higher price is a good way to get profit. The recent year is difficult to predict as sometimes the price is very high and other time it become down so therefore no one has the exact knowledge about the exact value of bitcoin for the future.

Increase your patience level for this year if you want to see bitcoin hit $50k even though many of us believe it will.
There are 7 months in the 2023 calendar before we enter 2024, so there's definitely a lot going to happen to bitcoin in that time frame. Currently the movement for price recovery is still unclear, that's because the price of bitcoin is sideways so far.

I think this year is all about being optimistic, meaning that even though some bitcoin analysis still seems tough to hit $50k, maybe $50k will hit before the end of the year. I'll see how the market recovers gradually, so for sure I won't be in a hurry.

Though no one can know the exact future and it is not possible to predict the correct outcomes that might occur in the future, we can see the current stats and conditions and have an idea about what the outcome might be. And from what it looks like right now, the chances of Bitcoin's price hitting $50k this year are very tiny.

The price isn't showing much positivity at the moment. We saw some growth initially this year, but as the first quarter came to an end, that was the end of the growth as well and the price started getting stable and correcting itself, and we are still within the same phase.

No one really indeed knowing the future and we cant really tell whether there would really be some repetition in speaking about history. You cant really be able to make yourself that having assurance that we would

be seeing new all time highs when bull time run or happens. What if we do only reach out $50k when the time comes? For sure lots of negative sayings would really molded on that time on which they would really be
having assumptions that it would be over for bitcoin without even trying to realize that we know that this market isnt something that would be giving out positive results or things that we do have in mind.
Basing up on the history then it cant really be just that avoided that people would really be having that kind of positive impression. You cant really be able to tell though if this one
would be the result or outcome.

if it does happen then it is a positive sign because history is indeed repeating, and we will see a bull run in 2024 to 2025,
but if this year Bitcoin fails to $ 50k, then I think we must also be vigilant, because it is most likely 2024 or 2025 bullish will not come either,
I don't know if this is still a mystery, what is certain is that you don't experience bad things if it happens, make sure you take the right actions.

What goes up alays come down but it might keep bouncing already in the weekly chart as we see how adoption becomes massive and the scarcity of BTC after halving. Eventually price dips again after touching the peak so it will dive after hitting 50k and then back up again after few months to continue its bullrun.

I think the  billrun from now on will keep going as super cycle as what they called.

There is no doubt that we are going to see a massive bull run in 2024-2025. The point of the OP is that if history will repeat itself, then we might see $50k at least for this year before the big bull run that we are expecting right after the block halving in May.

But as he suggested already, we need to break $30k first before forming a bull flag leading to $50k.

So we will see, this May is a stagnant month for us, the price didn't move up the way we supposedly predicted ($30k+). We still have 6 months to go and see whether what the OP predicted might happen or not.

Basing the assumption on technical analysis. I recently saw that China may change its position on cryptocurrencies. I am more confident that that could give the price a nice boost and it will go to $50K in no time than technical analysis which is probabilistic and serves rather more to try to understand the past than to predict the future.

If you believe history will repeat itself, bitcoin recovery and hitting $50k is possible. But everyone seems to be trying to ignore the fact that after bitcoin surged in 2019 and before the halving in May 2020, bitcoin also fell severely from $12k to $4k. If history repeats itself, bitcoin will hit $50k this year and then dump before officially entering the real bull season.

I don't know what June will look like, but I will also believe that history will repeat itself. This means that this year bitcoin will recover significantly, and we will still have the opportunity to buy bitcoin cheaper than now before halving occurs.

It might be a good boost if this is really true though, but as I have said in the past, I don't trust China with their word specially if they are going to make U-turn on Bitcoin and crypto.


That's always been the case in Bitcoin cycles though, so far history continue to repeat itself, although the numbers might not be exactly as the last bull run. But definitely there are numbers and data that we can look and say that maybe it will happen again.

As what the OP wanted to show us in his graph, the best price at the end of the year could be $50k and that will be big entry point for the next all time high.

I'm certainly not forgetting what happened in 2019 and I do think if Bitcoin reaches $50K this year then price will return to at least $30K, maybe even $25K or lower, as highlighted by the fractal in the OP. Because by reaching $50K in the near future it would be with (another) parabolic run, that would end in a significant correction. Maybe not quite the black swan event that occurred in March 2020, but even without that, price corrected from around $14K to $6.5K that was already a 50%+ correction, so I see no reason why the same type of severe correction would occur if price reaches $50K.

Should we over-react on what china stands to treat bitcoin?

I think they changing perspective about the cryptocurrency for like twice a month or even much more than that lol , it's a public secret that china love to twisting the story as long as it has advantage for them , pretty much opportunist at this point. 2023 should reach the highest price for 24months and also biggest crash before we heading the halving day.

If we pay attention, many things have in common about the bitcoin price chart, what is popular is the upward trend which has occurred 3 times, namely in 2013, 2017 and 2021, those 3 years the price skyrocketed then the following year the price dropped significantly, many say that bitcoin in pump or dump whales but this is still an opinion and until now it has not been proven.