If history repeats itself: 2023 vs 2019

[rhomelmabini]

Have you take a look at the 2015 chart? I think that's the similar thing rather than the 2019 one. Not that I mind it because in the long term we will see all time high once again, it's just a matter of patience and your tenacity to make it alive in this bear market. Not always optimistic but always ready on both scenarios.

[OgNasty]

Many people talk about a similar fractal in 2019 and 2023, but I don't think it's quite correct to compare these charts because at that time there was no global crisis, not even a Covid yet, so the whole world economy, including the stock markets, were operating very differently than now. We can say that now we are on the verge of a big recession and I personally don't expect any serious growth of bitcoin. Although I don't exclude that it might happen against the odds, as it has happened more than once.

I'm a strong believer of Bitcoin's 4-year cycle a.k.a. fractal pattern and think it is the single most important thing when trying to gauge Bitcoin's price in the future.  So far it's turned out to be a fairly accurate method of predicting. 

Sure, "this time is different" and I understand your point.  I also think that people should be wise to take note of the differences and keep them in mind should a recession truly destroy Bitcoin's market.  However, I am a believer that Bitcoin (and crypto) is a new asset class that's finding it's valuation.  I believe it's value is higher than today's valuation and think that the fractal pattern will continue as Bitcoin doesn't care about global chaos or recessions and there's even the possibility that rich people flock to Bitcoin as a safe haven in a recession, causing it's value to skyrocket.  I don't really believe that, but still think it's a good time to be a buyer, because the fractal is real.

[livingfree]

Since we're probably and most likely out of the bear, this goes with the season of the end of year where most of times that it is when the surge happens.

Prior to the halving we might get some push at the last weeks of December by this year. I do believe that history will definitely repeat itself and if not then there's a likelihood that we shall see its pattern soon.

But with the situation that we're all experiencing right now, this is a lovely chart to look at.

I wouldn't say we're out of the bear season yet. I mean, Bitcoin is still rebounding, while the general feeling is more positive as of recent, however we don't know what this year holds yet. It hasn't really started, and with the recession looming I wouldn't want to make a prediction based on any charts, since I genuinely believe we're in unprecedented times, which charts don't typically account for.

I guess I'm an outlier, and I'm not too bothered by the short term price performance, but it does look like a lot of users are coming to terms they'll need to wait a little longer to get their desired return.

I agree to you and that's why I think that we're just probably out of it since the trend is changing and we're staying at the top from the bottom that it has been.

And just as how unpredictable it was, we're on the same page that it's always been like that and these are just mere thoughts that I've got for the market.

At the end, just as you, I'm also looking forward to the long term and with the effect of the halving by next year. It's like my ticket why I'm optimistic for the next 1-2 years to come.

[Fatunad]

Since we're probably and most likely out of the bear, this goes with the season of the end of year where most of times that it is when the surge happens.

Prior to the halving we might get some push at the last weeks of December by this year. I do believe that history will definitely repeat itself and if not then there's a likelihood that we shall see its pattern soon.

But with the situation that we're all experiencing right now, this is a lovely chart to look at.

I wouldn't say we're out of the bear season yet. I mean, Bitcoin is still rebounding, while the general feeling is more positive as of recent, however we don't know what this year holds yet. It hasn't really started, and with the recession looming I wouldn't want to make a prediction based on any charts, since I genuinely believe we're in unprecedented times, which charts don't typically account for.

I guess I'm an outlier, and I'm not too bothered by the short term price performance, but it does look like a lot of users are coming to terms they'll need to wait a little longer to get their desired return.

I agree to you and that's why I think that we're just probably out of it since the trend is changing and we're staying at the top from the bottom that it has been.

And just as how unpredictable it was, we're on the same page that it's always been like that and these are just mere thoughts that I've got for the market.

At the end, just as you, I'm also looking forward to the long term and with the effect of the halving by next year. It's like my ticket why I'm optimistic for the next 1-2 years to come.

People do really love hunting for some patterns and similarities when it comes to those candles and lines comparing the past into the present.Well it cant really be stopped considering that market could neither have that kind of behavior but in overall we do know that this market is always been unpredictable.There's no way that we could really be able to know on where it would be heading even if we do see some similarities
when it comes to charting.It all matters about the demand and recognition on how this market would react and behaves.This is why on the time that you had stepped your foot into this market then you should
really be that prepared when it comes to the risk involved and attached to it.

[AmoreJaz]

From analysis, it is clear that bitcoin circle repeats itself and I see that these two years 2019 and 2023 looks similar. The last year bear market went so dip beyond the expected price and this might make bitcoin price to pump very high this year maybe towards the end of the year,we might see the price up to 50k. Bitcoin halving is expected to be next year but nobody knows if we are to experience it earlier than that. I am patiently accumulating and watching the movement of the price to see what this year have for investors. Anyway January was a good development in bitcoin price to start this year.

we may see the similarities but don't forget that the situation today is now different, like how many users are into crypto or big companies that are involve in crypto-related business. in my opinion, each year is unique. we may see some situations to be happening again but they are not the reason to hope that it will be the same path again. we will see the aftermath once the year is over. also in any case, everyone is free to speculate and act accordingly.

[crzy]

Have you take a look at the 2015 chart? I think that's the similar thing rather than the 2019 one. Not that I mind it because in the long term we will see all time high once again, it's just a matter of patience and your tenacity to make it alive in this bear market. Not always optimistic but always ready on both scenarios.

This is how it works, better to be more ready for both scenario because the market is unpredictable and I choose maybe because of the market sentiment right now and there’s a possibility if the hype and pump continues. The previous trend will always be the basis and yes it might be the 2015 price trend since in 2025, many expect for the real bull run after the halving with Bitcoin.

[dragonvslinux]

Have you take a look at the 2015 chart? I think that's the similar thing rather than the 2019 one.

Yes I have. The implication would be remaining in a range between $15K and $30K for the rest of year. There's nothing really exciting to provide fractal wise imo, it'd look pretty boring. Also while it's possible I personally find it unlikely. There was a lot more uncertainty back then in Bitcoin's infancy and it took a lot of time (11 months) to rebuild confidence in the market. 2019 rebound changed the game imo.

The reality is neither a 2015 nor 2019 style consolidation or recovery has confirmed itself in the charts yet as it's only been a few months since the potential bottom. If price where to get rejected by $30K and head towards $15K then rest assured I would open a new thread to suggest this possibility, rather than the idea of heading $10K. But so far, there is little to suggest this outcome is that likely.

[STT]

Its looking a bit weaker today, failed to pass 24.5k and also staying below the 2 day average and confirming the weekly average for the highs.  If I hold BTC as acting positively I expect it to hold above weekly averages not below.   The signal for this higher patch of BTC prices to fall apart would be 23.5k being lost.  Next support I'd guess is early Feb lows of 22.8k   All of this is short term stuff and movements, if someone argued we are just going sideways I would mostly agree for micro and macro movements.

[Pesona1]

Have you take a look at the 2015 chart? I think that's the similar thing rather than the 2019 one. Not that I mind it because in the long term we will see all time high once again, it's just a matter of patience and your tenacity to make it alive in this bear market. Not always optimistic but always ready on both scenarios.

This is how it works, better to be more ready for both scenario because the market is unpredictable and I choose maybe because of the market sentiment right now and there’s a possibility if the hype and pump continues. The previous trend will always be the basis and yes it might be the 2015 price trend since in 2025, many expect for the real bull run after the halving with Bitcoin.

The market conditions are clearly unstable at the moment, the previous price gains were not able to last long enough and even I see that the possibility of a bearish trend could still occur, moreover the weekly chart of the BTC price still shows a death cross of the Moving Average indicator so that changes may occur the price suddenly comes from bitcoin at this time, for now it's better to watch and be aware of bitcoin price movements before buying because after all we don't want to get stuck in buying.

[LogitechMouse]

As a believe of the 4-year cycle, I believe that what happened in 2019 might happen again this year.

On the other hand, I don't think that it will reach that $50,000 price this year. It's possible still, but the chances of it are low (at least for me). It might reach that price next year.

Well, we are in a situation where the crypto market is performing better compare to where it was last year which is a sign of relief. What's good now is that, we are seeing Bitcoin signs of upward movement though it can't pass the $25,000 resistance as of this moment. We might see different price movements right now compare to where it was 4 years ago, but if we will look at the longer timeline, the pattern is still the same. Bear market-Sideways movement-Bitcoin halving-Bull Market.

[rhomelmabini]

Have you take a look at the 2015 chart? I think that's the similar thing rather than the 2019 one.

Yes I have. The implication would be remaining in a range between $15K and $30K for the rest of year. There's nothing really exciting to provide fractal wise imo, it'd look pretty boring. Also while it's possible I personally find it unlikely. There was a lot more uncertainty back then in Bitcoin's infancy and it took a lot of time (11 months) to rebuild confidence in the market. 2019 rebound changed the game imo.

The reality is neither a 2015 nor 2019 style consolidation or recovery has confirmed itself in the charts yet as it's only been a few months since the potential bottom. If price where to get rejected by $30K and head towards $15K then rest assured I would open a new thread to suggest this possibility, rather than the idea of heading $10K. But so far, there is little to suggest this outcome is that likely.

Well, I think you're correct, the fundamentals back then was not quite strong compare to what we've seen today but aren't the regulations of SEC and others kinda looks the same as it was the uncertainty before? I mean SEC is throwing around on things that may create FUD in the market these days just because of that FTX meltdown, e.g., staking rumors to be banned, stablecoins issues as unregistered security etc. I think May or June will decide this if it breaks above the strong resistance at $25k, for now the sentiment is still on the bears side.

[Natalim]

History repeats itself. Perhaps I was going to believe that but the things are difficult from a volatile market as it never have the path to where it going making us to think that this year is similar to 2019.

For some reason;
 - demand
 - adoptions
 - economic growth
 
These are the contributing factor that could affect the price movement of Bitcoin and to expect the same scenario is impossible, unless everythig was controlled by whales or someone that is capable of.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

I wouldn't say we're out of the bear season yet. I mean, Bitcoin is still rebounding, while the general feeling is more positive as of recent, however we don't know what this year holds yet. It hasn't really started, and with the recession looming I wouldn't want to make a prediction based on any charts, since I genuinely believe we're in unprecedented times, which charts don't typically account for.

I completely agree, and I go further. Basing the alleged repetition only on what happened in 2019 is too weak. Even a prediction based on similarities between what may happen and what happened in 2019, 2015 and 2011 can clearly fail because of what is in bold. Something like that happened last year where everyone was predicting that the price would go much higher than it did, with predictive models of that style.

In the end, as they say in football, statistics are there to be broken.

[Davian144]

The market conditions are clearly unstable at the moment, the previous price gains were not able to last long enough and even I see that the possibility of a bearish trend could still occur, moreover the weekly chart of the BTC price still shows a death cross of the Moving Average indicator so that changes may occur the price suddenly comes from bitcoin at this time, for now it's better to watch and be aware of bitcoin price movements before buying because after all we don't want to get stuck in buying.

If you mention about an unstable market condition, you should mention which market condition so that the direction is clear. Because if you don't mention about certain market conditions for certain products or assets, then it will be interpreted very generally by everyone.

But when you mean the market conditions for Bitcoin, it is clear that Bitcoin has never been stable in terms of price and that has not only happened at the moment, but has also happened a lot in the past because basically Bitcoin is not a stable coin whose price is very difficult move. And for now the price of Bitcoin on the market is still very close to the range of $ 24K, which means it is not too far from the price of $ 25K that was reached by Bitcoin this month. So I don't think Bitcoin is in a bad state right now because in general it's still very good.

[dragonvslinux]

Have you take a look at the 2015 chart? I think that's the similar thing rather than the 2019 one.

Yes I have. The implication would be remaining in a range between $15K and $30K for the rest of year. There's nothing really exciting to provide fractal wise imo, it'd look pretty boring. Also while it's possible I personally find it unlikely. There was a lot more uncertainty back then in Bitcoin's infancy and it took a lot of time (11 months) to rebuild confidence in the market. 2019 rebound changed the game imo.

The reality is neither a 2015 nor 2019 style consolidation or recovery has confirmed itself in the charts yet as it's only been a few months since the potential bottom. If price where to get rejected by $30K and head towards $15K then rest assured I would open a new thread to suggest this possibility, rather than the idea of heading $10K. But so far, there is little to suggest this outcome is that likely.

Well, I think you're correct, the fundamentals back then was not quite strong compare to what we've seen today but aren't the regulations of SEC and others kinda looks the same as it was the uncertainty before? I mean SEC is throwing around on things that may create FUD in the market these days just because of that FTX meltdown, e.g., staking rumors to be banned, stablecoins issues as unregistered security etc. I think May or June will decide this if it breaks above the strong resistance at $25k, for now the sentiment is still on the bears side.

Personally, I don't see how staking or stablecoin bans will effect Bitcoin, this will simply effect other cryptocurrencies. I know people will think this will be bad for all crypto and therefore Bitcoin, but instead it could be bad for crypto excluding Bitcoin. For example when Bitcoin is going down then hedge funds / exchanges collapsing and liquidating will directly effect the price, but if Bitcoin is rising, the situation may be very different.

Also to note 2019 was the year Bitcoin's market dominance increased from around 50% to 70% (+35%), after making a low around 40%, and I very much think the same dynamic can happen this year, by comparison from different levels from 40% to 55-60%. We've already seen a 10% increase from recent lows, and I imagine this is set to continue should Bitcoin continue to the upside. This could in turn mean  bans on exchange staking, stablecoins, even DeFi, could well cause money to flow out of these cryptos and products and back towards Bitcoin if it is considered a safe haven and immune from direct scrutiny from the SEC. Obviously in a bear market money will flee back to fiat, but when Bitcoin is in a bull market and unaffected by these regulatory issues, then that money is more likely to flow back into Bitcoin. At least, imo.

The fact that Bitcoin hasn't really claimed any market dominance back since the highs in 2021 tells me that it has a lot of ground to make up and this may well be the cause that helps it achieve this.



Just like Bitcoin's price, it's market dominance appears to flipping bullish again after around 20 months consolidating near the lows, with the usual bullish divergence on various indicators.

[Kelvinid]

As a believe of the 4-year cycle, I believe that what happened in 2019 might happen again this year.

On the other hand, I don't think that it will reach that $50,000 price this year. It's possible still, but the chances of it are low (at least for me). It might reach that price next year.

Well, we are in a situation where the crypto market is performing better compare to where it was last year which is a sign of relief. What's good now is that, we are seeing Bitcoin signs of upward movement though it can't pass the $25,000 resistance as of this moment. We might see different price movements right now compare to where it was 4 years ago, but if we will look at the longer timeline, the pattern is still the same. Bear market-Sideways movement-Bitcoin halving-Bull Market.

I couldn't agree with you all but I also believe in the 4-year cycle of the market yet I wasn't really confident to see the same path again. Of course, the current situation is even better than last year as we are recovering from the bear season. Yet, we can't just say that we are moving far from the last year's situation, and anytime, the price of Bitcoin might drop again.
I'm not too much believer about the history repeat itself because it was to hard to rely on it from unpredictable market.

[livingfree]

I agree to you and that's why I think that we're just probably out of it since the trend is changing and we're staying at the top from the bottom that it has been.

And just as how unpredictable it was, we're on the same page that it's always been like that and these are just mere thoughts that I've got for the market.

At the end, just as you, I'm also looking forward to the long term and with the effect of the halving by next year. It's like my ticket why I'm optimistic for the next 1-2 years to come.

People do really love hunting for some patterns and similarities when it comes to those candles and lines comparing the past into the present.Well it cant really be stopped considering that market could neither have that kind of behavior but in overall we do know that this market is always been unpredictable.There's no way that we could really be able to know on where it would be heading even if we do see some similarities
when it comes to charting.It all matters about the demand and recognition on how this market would react and behaves.This is why on the time that you had stepped your foot into this market then you should
really be that prepared when it comes to the risk involved and attached to it.

Well, we're in a speculative market and most things that we see is all about speculations. Sometimes they're right and sometimes, they're all wrong.

Volatility means a lot that no one can exactly time the market and give an accurate prediction. But, what's the beauty of it is that everyone who's giving some points, speculations and predictions are great to read and study.

[goaldigger]

History repeats itself. Perhaps I was going to believe that but the things are difficult from a volatile market as it never have the path to where it going making us to think that this year is similar to 2019.

For some reason;
 - demand
 - adoptions
 - economic growth
 
These are the contributing factor that could affect the price movement of Bitcoin and to expect the same scenario is impossible, unless everythig was controlled by whales or someone that is capable of.

Probably not the exact same scenario but almost the same price trend, this has been the situation on many market like stocks and forex so I believe its also possible to see in cryptomarket the same picture even if its on a different level or different volatility. The demand and supply will always affect the market trend, the adoptions will also play a big role as cryptomarket is still not accepted by many while the economic growth also matter as we are about to rise from the pandemic downfall.

[gunhell16]

It is still difficult to compare the past with the future, apart from the fact that they are very different. Isn't it true that as time goes by bitcoin goes up and up and there is a repeated occurrence? in Bitcoin's value? I think most people know, don't they?

Perhaps the only thing that happens repeatedly is the increase and decrease of its value in the market, then every time the bitcoin halving comes, the value of bitcoin increases repeatedly in a way that we don't expect will always happen that it will reach this price.

[justdimin]

Thought it was time that this analysis from a few weeks ago had it's own thread. We're currently still "on track" for $50K this year based on 2019 fractal. Should also add that I see the argument for a +50% move to around $36K with current rounding bottom formation and a breakout above $25K, but otherwise not convinced this negates the +80% target to $50K+ after reclaiming $30K, instead quite the opposite.

Similar to 2019 there was the initial +30% target to around $5.2K after breaking back above $4K, followed by another rounding bottom +100% target to around $12.8K once $6.4K was reclaimed. The only difference in this scenario is that these targets are overlapped; firstly to $36K, followed by reclaiming $30K to reach $50K. Goes without saying that targets are never guaranteed to be met, even if they often are.

Why wouldn't it though? That's the question we need to ask ourselves, why wouldn't bitcoin repeat itself? It has the capacity to go up like that and it has the potential to double once again, even quadruple along the year.

If you remember 2019 good enough, you would know that 14k was seen that year, which means that we started at 3.5k, reached to 14k but dropped to 7k, and if you applied to this year, we could see 16k becoming 64k for a while before dropping to 32k. Maybe not exactly like that, but I can see the price going above 40k for a while and I think it is going to end up with a good amount of return for most investors who get in right now and earlier.