If history repeats itself: 2023 vs 2019

[dragonvslinux]

"History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme." - Mark Twain

2019 fractal to scale with similarities so far. $25K needs to break for bull-flag confirmation. $30K needs to break for +80% upside target to ~$50K.

Thought it was time that this analysis from a few weeks ago had it's own thread. We're currently still "on track" for $50K this year based on 2019 fractal. Should also add that I see the argument for a +50% move to around $36K with current rounding bottom formation and a breakout above $25K, but otherwise not convinced this negates the +80% target to $50K+ after reclaiming $30K, instead quite the opposite.

Similar to 2019 there was the initial +30% target to around $5.2K after breaking back above $4K, followed by another rounding bottom +100% target to around $12.8K once $6.4K was reclaimed. The only difference in this scenario is that these targets are overlapped; firstly to $36K, followed by reclaiming $30K to reach $50K. Goes without saying that targets are never guaranteed to be met, even if they often are.



Source: Posted TradingView, February 1st 2023 | Screenshot: April 11th 2023.


Updates:

With price back at $20K, price is in need of (another) +20% impulsive move back above 200 Day MA in order to return to 2019 fractal, which admittedly at present looks unlikely.

More or less still tracking the 2019 fractal with a month delay. Bitcoin had another impulsive move after finding support from 200 Day MA post golden cross, this time it was +30% rather than +20%

In order to compare directly based on fibonacci retracements to 0.618 ($13.8K), here is the 2019 relief rally, prior to returning to $4K, for anyone unaware what happened back then:



Disclaimer: This isn't intended to suggest the price will reach $50K, but simply comparing 2019 and 2023 bear market relief rallies and current progress, given the similarities so far. Don't make me point to the disclaimer.

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[dragonvslinux]

Reserved

[fzkto]

Many people talk about a similar fractal in 2019 and 2023, but I don't think it's quite correct to compare these charts because at that time there was no global crisis, not even a Covid yet, so the whole world economy, including the stock markets, were operating very differently than now. We can say that now we are on the verge of a big recession and I personally don't expect any serious growth of bitcoin. Although I don't exclude that it might happen against the odds, as it has happened more than once.

[dragonvslinux]

Many people talk about a similar fractal in 2019 and 2023, but I don't think it's quite correct to compare these charts because at that time there was no global crisis, not even a Covid yet, so the whole world economy, including the stock markets, were operating very differently than now. We can say that now we are on the verge of a big recession and I personally don't expect any serious growth of bitcoin.

It's very true that 2018 and 2014 bear markets were very different than 2022 with high inflation. In 2018 and 2014, without high inflation, Bitcoin price dropped 83%. With inflation, in 2022, price dropped around -77% (at least so far), so considerably less. It does mean that price may not increase as much as it did in 2019, simple because price didn't drop as much for example. But I still think a retracement to 0.618 is reasonable.

I'm otherwise still waiting for high inflation to be bad for Bitcoin during a bear market. Please let me know when this occurs (when price drops below $12K), but ideally not before then. Until then, given how Bitcoin has performed much better under the conditions of high inflation during it's bear market, compared to without, it's also possible to speculate it will perform even better with a recession. But only time will tell.

This is sort of separate topic (off-topic you could say) that I intend to start soon. But speculating why high inflation has been good for Bitcoin is probably best left until more confirmation of a bear market low (ie >$30K). Likewise speculating that high inflation, or a recession, is bad for Bitcoin would be best left until price drops more than -83% ("the usual amount") from it's previous all time high, so once it's drops below $12K.

[pixie85]

Many people talk about a similar fractal in 2019 and 2023, but I don't think it's quite correct to compare these charts because at that time there was no global crisis, not even a Covid yet, so the whole world economy, including the stock markets, were operating very differently than now.

People always say that this time is going to be different. I heard it and read about it multiple times and you can do it too, just look for some bear market posts from 2011, 2014, 2018 and so on.
You seem to still fall for it.

In 2014 it was to be different because never before had the biggest exchange go bankrupt. Also in 2014 China banned bitcoin and closed down all exchanges. Bitcoin was supposed to go to 0.

In 2018 it was supposed to be different because bitcoin pumped so much that people expected it to be the last bull market especially with the "new king" narrative from BCH shills. Bitcoin fees got so high that people had to pay more than $100 to push transactions. It was supposed to be the end with bitcoin going to $1000.

Then we had a covid crash and bitcoin lost 70% of its market price almost instantly when we were supposed to be out of bear market already with more than 7 months in 8-10 thousand range.

You think that this time is different because your field of view is too narrow. Daily or weekly price action means nothing for a volatile asset like bitcoin. Look at years. Nothing has changed when it comes to halving bull markets whether we get this small rally like in 2019 or not.

[Yatsan]

Many people talk about a similar fractal in 2019 and 2023, but I don't think it's quite correct to compare these charts because at that time there was no global crisis, not even a Covid yet, so the whole world economy, including the stock markets, were operating very differently than now. We can say that now we are on the verge of a big recession and I personally don't expect any serious growth of bitcoin. Although I don't exclude that it might happen against the odds, as it has happened more than once.

There are several factors affecting a market value of an asset which solely depend on demand. Each year indeed, there is quite of a pattern on period but I agree that same thing won't happen exactly as if it is repetitive. This market in general is way too unpredictable. Comparing is a good thing even if there will be no certainty. Common belief is enough to somehow from that slightest pattern. Perhaps halving; what happened before left an impression and as the next one is being anticipated, there is still that hype which would be taken advantage by investors. As mentioned, outcome won't be exactly the same but atleast that common belief could as well reflect to demand.

[coolcoinz]

This time it also looks different because bitcoin went below 200 week MA and remains below it.
IMO, it's because because there are people trying to keep it there to delay a possible breakout. They know if we break above many traders will think the bear market is over and go back in with what they took out during the panic caused by 2 scammers of the year: Do Kwon and SBF.

OP's 2019 scenario is definitely possible. How probable though? I'd say only 50% because of the SEC manipulation. I believe there are rich and powerful people pulling the strings here, the ones that orchestrated SBF's business, because I strongly believe he was the face here, just like that pair charged with laundering Bitfinex money.

[o48o]

People always say that this time is going to be different. I heard it and read about it multiple times and you can do it too, just look for some bear market posts from 2011, 2014, 2018 and so on.
You seem to still fall for it.
-cut-

I always took that as a joke and a meme, said in a sarcastic tone meaning the exact opposite. That there will always be a bear market after a bull market and nothing changes.
Well maybe regulators have came into play. I am not sure if them trying to remove any pseudonymity /anonymity is all good dor the decentralized nature of crypto though.

I am sure some are genuinely believing that phrase and think that something massive and game changing is coming that changes the whole game, but i see those massive things coming and going too. And massive things are needed in order to reach another ath over and over.

[adaseb]

Yes like I said before. It seems that 2022 was very similar to 2018. Many expected the low already in for Bitcoin prior to the FTX collapse just like people assumed $6K was support in 2018 and then the black swan event happened.

Then we had a echo bubble pretty much in 2019 where it peaked at $14K and many assumed that it would go to ATH again. And its also the macro which is rallying such as SP500. Many are pouring lots of money into the markets now because they think the fed will do a soft landing. However it's like a big bull trap when the music stops sometime in Q2 or Q3.

[yhiaali3]

Everyone, of course, hopes to achieve the goal of 50k this year, but I see that it is difficult, not impossible, of course, but it is difficult, according to my point of view.

Although the market has recovered well during the last period, I still believe that we are far from achieving this goal this year, for many reasons, perhaps the most important of which are recession and inflation.
It is true that inflation can be a catalyst for the rise of the Bitcoin market due to people's tendency to store their assets in the form of Bitcoin instead of fiat, but at the same time inflation makes people spend more of their savings to cover the price hike resulting from the loss of the currency's value.

In addition to other basic and technical matters that make it difficult for Bitcoin to reach this number this year, but in the end nothing is impossible.

[GreatArkansas]

I believe that the $50,000 is very possible, especially in the last quarter of this month, but just in case it is not, the first quarter of 2024 will be the chance.
Because I believe that the Bitcoin block halving in 2024 is the biggest trigger for Bitcoin to reach again this kind of price level.

[doomloop]

I believe that the $50,000 is very possible, especially in the last quarter of this month, but just in case it is not, the first quarter of 2024 will be the chance.
Because I believe that the Bitcoin block halving in 2024 is the biggest trigger for Bitcoin to reach again this kind of price level.

We are still in the beginning of 2023 but Bitcoin's performance is already superb, how much more if we will move on the third or fourth quarter of this year? I wouldn't be surprised if we can end this year with at least $50k in price per Bitcoin. This are all possible even if the history didn't repeat itself. Each Bitcoin halving has a positive impact on Bitcoins price.

This upcoming Bitcoin halving are said to help the price to reach 100k dollars. Everyone is so excited about it, this is why they are now filling their bags faster. They are wishing that this bear can still last a little longer because they are afraid that they won't see this price this low again.

[STT]

Possible but is it probable, some think Jan is the determining month often.  So goes January so goes the year quite often so that'd imply bullish though this is main markets and in theory BTC is not aligned though I think we can see Dollar strength is inverse so in fact often BTC gains when other assets might also.  The proportion gains will vary and I think this year is positive but not a large gain year just yet.
  2019 we gained and lost it again so it was quite spiky in that respect, too fast a gain.  Here we are going sideways quite alot at the moment, a really simple look at that chart on weekly bars says 30k is a target within grasp and should be obtained.  We cannot speculate on gains beyond 30k because it hasnt happened to challenge this area yet, all we did so far is escape the downtrend and relief rally which is not enough to say more only maybe.

[dragonvslinux]

2019 we gained and lost it again so it was quite spiky in that respect, too fast a gain.  

Indeed, I still consider 2019 a bear market relief rally. Price made a macro lower high and eventually returned to near the lows at $3.8K for eventual higher low. Black swan event aside, that's what happened, and even without the covid crash then price still returned to "the norm" around $6K to $8K that was the previous volume accumulation zone. Hence, if price does reach $50K, I'd be betting on it returning to $25K/$30K soon after.

Here we are going sideways quite alot at the moment, a really simple look at that chart on weekly bars says 30k is a target within grasp and should be obtained.  We cannot speculate on gains beyond 30k because it hasnt happened to challenge this area yet, all we did so far is escape the downtrend and relief rally which is not enough to say more only maybe.

Also agree on this. Hence my note for confirmation of a U-shaped bottom and +80% target would be above $30K, not before. I see the argument for a roughly 50% target to the upside towards $37K if $25K if broken, but additionally this hasn't been confirmed either, and imo it's not quite as clean a U-shaped bottom compared to the drop from $30K down to $16K and back to $30K. But that's just my opinion on the matter.

My general impression is that $30K won't act as resistance however as there is barely any volume there compared to $16K and $20K levels. Even between $30K and $40K there isn't much either. By comparison in 2019 most of the volume was still traded between $6K and $8K, but price broke through like a knife through butter. So ironically, it should be easier to break $30K than it was to break $6K back in 2019.

[el kaka22]

Looking at the similarities of 2019 and 2023 we could say that there is a good chance we could end up with a different situation in the long run, it may not be what we want to see, maybe 50k won't happen, but it could be a good year that we go up.

I know it is not that easy to make such a prediction, maybe it will happen and maybe it won't happen, we really do not know. But, I am guessing that it is going to end up with a good return in the long run if we wait, probably this year is just the start, next year it is going to be even better than that. Next year I am expecting it to pass the ATH price, and that would be when all the fun will start with it again.

[Unbunplease]

Looking at the similarities of 2019 and 2023 we could say that there is a good chance we could end up with a different situation in the long run, it may not be what we want to see, maybe 50k won't happen, but it could be a good  Next year I am expecting it to pass the ATH price, and that would be when all the fun will start with it again.

As always, we can be deceived, and all the most interesting may happen in 2023. Everybody is used to the fact that the main growth starts after halving (though if we consider that almost all BTC coins are already mined, the impact of halving will only decrease) - so the main growth may happen in 2023. After all, many - myself included - expected bitcoin to finally rise in December 2021 (as 2013 and 2017) and we will have a strong altseason - but on December 4, 2021, history was rewritten.

[TheGreatPython]

Looking at the similarities of 2019 and 2023 we could say that there is a good chance we could end up with a different situation in the long run, it may not be what we want to see, maybe 50k won't happen, but it could be a good year that we go up.

I know it is not that easy to make such a prediction, maybe it will happen and maybe it won't happen, we really do not know. But, I am guessing that it is going to end up with a good return in the long run if we wait, probably this year is just the start, next year it is going to be even better than that. Next year I am expecting it to pass the ATH price, and that would be when all the fun will start with it again.

The similarities show that there is a chance for the price to repeat its actions from the past, so we can't say that we can end up with a different situation, although that could be right and we might end up with that. $50k is a long way for sure from where the price is right now, but if it breaks the resistance and shows strong upward movement, we might end up crossing that limit by the end of Q2.

For a long-run expectation, you should not expect things to happen just within a year, keep an estimate of at least 3 to 5 years if you wish to get amazing returns on your investment and if you know that you got the ability to hold on to your assets.

[livingfree]

Since we're probably and most likely out of the bear, this goes with the season of the end of year where most of times that it is when the surge happens.

Prior to the halving we might get some push at the last weeks of December by this year. I do believe that history will definitely repeat itself and if not then there's a likelihood that we shall see its pattern soon.

But with the situation that we're all experiencing right now, this is a lovely chart to look at.

[Merit.s]

From analysis, it is clear that bitcoin circle repeats itself and I see that these two years 2019 and 2023 looks similar. The last year bear market went so dip beyond the expected price and this might make bitcoin price to pump very high this year maybe towards the end of the year,we might see the price up to 50k. Bitcoin halving is expected to be next year but nobody knows if we are to experience it earlier than that. I am patiently accumulating and watching the movement of the price to see what this year have for investors. Anyway January was a good development in bitcoin price to start this year.

[Welsh]

Since we're probably and most likely out of the bear, this goes with the season of the end of year where most of times that it is when the surge happens.

Prior to the halving we might get some push at the last weeks of December by this year. I do believe that history will definitely repeat itself and if not then there's a likelihood that we shall see its pattern soon.

But with the situation that we're all experiencing right now, this is a lovely chart to look at.

I wouldn't say we're out of the bear season yet. I mean, Bitcoin is still rebounding, while the general feeling is more positive as of recent, however we don't know what this year holds yet. It hasn't really started, and with the recession looming I wouldn't want to make a prediction based on any charts, since I genuinely believe we're in unprecedented times, which charts don't typically account for.

I guess I'm an outlier, and I'm not too bothered by the short term price performance, but it does look like a lot of users are coming to terms they'll need to wait a little longer to get their desired return.