Bitcoin Forum

Hey fellow crypto enthusiasts,

I hope everyone is doing well and staying excited about the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrencies! Lately, I've been pondering a question that I'm sure many of us have on our minds: when can we expect the next Bitcoin bull run? Could it potentially coincide with the next Bitcoin halving? Let's dive into this intriguing topic and share our thoughts.

For those unfamiliar, the Bitcoin halving is an event that occurs approximately every four years, where the number of new Bitcoins mined per block is reduced by half. This mechanism is coded into Bitcoin's protocol and is designed to control its supply and maintain scarcity over time. Previous halvings, such as the ones in 2012 and 2016, were followed by significant price increases and bull runs that captured the attention of the entire financial world.

With the next Bitcoin halving on the horizon, scheduled to happen around [estimated date], many are wondering if history will repeat itself. Will the reduction in the rate of new Bitcoin issuance spark a renewed interest and demand, potentially triggering the next bull market? Or has the market matured in a way that makes these correlations less predictable?

It's worth noting that while previous halvings have been associated with bullish trends, there are numerous other factors at play in the cryptocurrency market. These include regulatory developments, technological advancements, macroeconomic conditions, institutional adoption, and shifts in investor sentiment, just to name a few. The dynamics of the market have become more intricate over time, making it difficult to attribute price movements solely to the halving event.

So, what are your thoughts? Do you believe that the next Bitcoin bull run is likely to follow the upcoming halving, or do you think the market has evolved beyond such a simple pattern? Are there any other indicators or factors that you're closely watching? Let's share our insights and engage in a constructive discussion on this fascinating topic.

Remember, none of us can predict the future with absolute certainty, but by combining our knowledge and perspectives, we can gain a deeper understanding of the complex forces driving the cryptocurrency market. Let's keep the conversation respectful and open-minded as we explore the possibilities together.

Looking forward to hearing your opinions and theories!

93% of all bitcoins have already been mined, and each next halving has 50% less effect on reduction of block reward, so obviously we can't expect bull runs to be synchronised with halvings forever. But I imagine the next halving (expected April/May 2024) will still be the catalyst for the next rally, even simply because of the psychological factor. If everyone expects something to happen, it could create the "self fulfilling prophecy" scenario. And, of course, 50% less selling pressure from the miners will also have a positive impact.

As you said, no one knows the future, so it is difficult to predict what will happen. But as a bitcoin investor, we have every right to expect the price of bitcoin to rise. For me, I believe that history will repeat itself until new history is made, which means I still believe the halving is still the most powerful catalyst to help bitcoin rise in price and generate new ATH.

There have been many theories that when everyone can predict, it is very likely that the market will not move as expected. It's still possible, but we won't be able to do anything but prepare a plan for that bad scenario if it really does happen.

The market is always expecting that the schedule halving will have an effect on the price of Bitcoin upwards - or what we call as a bull run though nobody can be sure if it can really happen and how long will it last. As we know, the market is moving based on generally accepted sentiment though we should also be prepared to be disappointed at times because nothing is really guaranteed here. Personally, am looking forward for a great 2024 in all of the crypto industry and this is something we should be preparing for like catching an abundance of fish in the ocean.

Even though the market isn't really tied only to the halving, by history it is the most significant factor of the bull run - ATH were reached, big cash outs were withdrawn. Of course, the bull run exists without the halvings but the next one is relatively close in time so I think the market will stay somewhat stable as it is right now, until the halving gets closer.

I am definitely for holding Bitcoins at least until then since I doubt that the market will be bullish before April next year. The outcome (how high will it go?) is really for speculation only but I think it will be profitable, the question is just how much.

If you rely on history and believe history will repeat itself, then the bitcoin price increase is related to the halving and it is the main catalyst. But to say that the block reward halving is the only factor driving bitcoin's upside momentum, I don't think so. The value of bitcoin depends on a lot of factors, not just a limited supply. So if in case we don't have a bull run after the halving, I believe that in the more distant future bitcoin will also increase in price as demand for it increases.

As it is based on speculation, it is unpredictable. No one can tell but from previous events or occurrences in the past of bitcoin halving, there has been a surge in bitcoin price immediately after bitcoin halving so it would not be a surprise if such should happen this time but still yet, nobody knows if the reverse would be the case. Moreover, there are several factors driving the Bitcoin market, and if they come into play the next halving would be of big significant effect on the crypto community would would further drive the demand for bitcoin as the price surges high above the last ATH.

Many institutional investors and big crypto whales are targeting Bitcoin market after every successful Bitcoin halving, and that is because miners rewards will be split into two and the mining difficulty of Bitcoin will be much higher than it used to be.

Although everything about the crypto market is not entirely tied with Bitcoin halving, that is why we have charts,  it just makes sense that after every bear market comes the halving and then the bull market, it all line up perfectly.

History always tends to repeat itself and that's because the answer is all in the chart of Bitcoin, the only thing backing this up is the chart history.

Learning a lot from everyone's perspectives on the potential connection between Bitcoin halvings and bull runs. While historical patterns do suggest a correlation, it's important to consider the evolving dynamics of the market. As we've all mentioned, there's a blend of factors driving the crypto landscape, from institutional interest to technological advancements. Whether the next bull run syncs with the halving or not, just be glad you're here right now because it's an exciting space that's changing the world for the better!

We cannot predict exactly where bitcoin will go and can only guess.
And many people have been wrong in guessing or giving their predictions because bitcoin's movements are now wilder.
But it is true that after a halving, there will usually be a spike in the price of bitcoin, which will be the moment to sell it at a high price.
So we can only presume that the next halving could trigger the bitcoin price to skyrocket and even surpass the last ATH price.
If that does happen, we can certainly make huge profits from bitcoin but that's only for people who already own a lot of bitcoin.

This is not the first time this has been discussed in this year. The bitcoin bull will start from the second quarter of the year 2024 after the halving in late this year and early next year. The bull is expected to occure next year or the upper year of 2025. The Preliminary bull market be next while the main bull market is 2025. The bull and the halving had not meet at the same time so the coincidence is not possible. It is better for you to acquire more bitcoin before the halving even starts. And after the halving is the bull market your hand.

Technically speaking, Bitcoin bull run has something relation with halving. If we look at the chart, we can see that after the halving which is happens only every 4 years the price increases drastically to the upside with huge volume. Maybe there's a lot of investors who waits for this to take the opportunity to buy and to profit in the future.
Aside from that, I still believe that bull run can possibly happen without Bitcoin halving.

If you truly understand the reason for halving then maybe this question could have not come in place, the simple idea i want to give here is that, the more we attain each successful halving is the reward on bitcoin reduced by half and we keep getting closer to the remaining blocks to be mined, while the more the value of bitcoin increases through this, the market demands increases while the supply is reduced thereby increasing it value, this is part of the reasons that orchestrates the bullrun after halving has taken place.

Halving is always the catalyst for the pump because the miner will get less Bitcoin to mine after halving which means they will lessen their sell pressure. But since only few Bitcoin already left to mine, I think Bitcoin Halving should be technically negligible since miners is just mining less compared before and their sell pressure will not gonna give huge impact. I think Bitcoin Halving is now becomes a symbol for hype for all crypto trader because of its benefits in the past since everyone looks on the chart.

But if we think about the technical perspective. Bitcoin halving now should be less effective compared before since only few Bitcoin left to mine while the difficulty is increasing.

ATH can occur at any time of the year as long as there are driving market forces and these forces are factors for which Bitcoin thrive on. It is true during Bitcoin halving, Bitcoin price increases with a good price resulting to ATH but we pray minners do not self so as not to have side effects on the  Bitcoin. But one thing I know is that whales are the most beneficiaries of this whole thing because they have good volume of Bitcoin in their possession and at such would be very much in the right position to collect profit.

I love how people like to speak "technically" when speculating on price, commenting on correlation, and joyfully wrapping conveniently-picked cherries into a happy bundle of causation.

If we look at the chart, we can see that after the halving, we also have a leap year. We also have major global economic events in between.

P.S. I do think (purely arbitrarily) that we'll continue a cycle post-halving but with increasingly lower amplitudes each cycle, to a certain point it may no longer qualify as a bull run

I can not agree more with you about halving and my personal views about bull run is. After Halving Bull run 100% comes because in halving the supply reduced by half through miner but the demand still increasing which means the demand will take over supply which will increase the price of BTC. But, you asked about other factors which in my sight are only Fundamental Factors.

Like the ETFs and other good news like release of new exchanges which will boost BTC to reach new ATH. I just read a topic you can read it too in my post history that where OP was concerned about lesser interest rate which helped BTC in the last bull run to reach new ATH. And he said this time the interest rate is not less so how and which factor will help BTC to make New ATH along with the halving event.

And my answer was same which is ETFs.

Not exactly that the bull run is programmed or tied to Bitcoin's halving, but rather the psychological part of it on investors that Bitcoin gets cut into halves and the inflation rate reduced, instigating the buying pressure that brings about a bull market thereafter.
We may get or may not get the usual super bull run, where we do see crazy price movement because of diminishing returns, an example is seen from the previous bull market where almost everyone was expecting the price to go way high $100k-$250k per BTC.

This is most likely the future of the bull runs caused by the halving, the halving is becoming less and less significant as miners are becoming more reliant on the fees they get from each block they mine, however it is to be expected that a residual effect will still last for a very long time and after each halving there is a moderate increase in price, even if this is not justified anymore as speculators will push the price up high enough for retail traders to notice and join the movement.

Most of the time when the bitcoin halving happens, the price of bitcoins also rises up to the point it creates a new ATH but that's not always the case because last time we needed to wait for about a year to see the massive result of the price increase which was the best scenario we could ever see in the crypto market and to be honest, there's no wrong if the bull runs won't gonna happen just after the bitcoin halving because we know that certainly, the price will go up once again just like what happened in the past 10+ years of bitcoin's history in the halving times.

I’m definitely one of those who believe that the next bitcoin bull run will only happen right after bitcoin halving has taken its place. But of course, the possible price increase effect will only happen several months after bitcoin halving because that’s what I’ve been observed from those previous bull runs. Although this is still a prediction as no one holds what the future will bring, but looking back it’s history and if there are chances that history repeats, then the same old pattern will set to happen again.

This is like a speculation, so in this effects you can not on your own predict accurately the future bitcoin in next two to three months, what I want you to understand concerning bitcoin bullrun is that we don't know the actual time such can happen, because whatever everyone is predicting concerning the future of bitcoin is just an assumption is not something we can depends on, their is every tendency that bitcoin price can rise or fall today, but and it can be determined base on the demands and supply..actually we are expecting bitcoin to be bullish next year 2024 because it should be the next halving but it can change drastically because bitcoin value is not permanent.

Most of the Bitcoin mining has beeb completed. Near about 93% has been completed. So in future there will be crisis when it will fylly completed mining. Then Bitcoin price will go moon there has no doubt. But that near future i am not seeing any news about bull session. I think in next year a little bull session we will saw. Q1/Q2 of 2024 bull market will start i think. But it will not go new ATH that time. I think for new ATH and touch $100k we have to wait 2025. Then bitcoin price will hit $100k i think.

I think the halving happenstance has become  a psychological play on the market to the point that investors now align its occurrence with bull rally. Past results have shown that Bitcoin has had favourable results around those periods that coincided with its halving and after them. So, it won't be wrong to conclude that halving has been responsible for the heightened prices we've seen Bitcoin attain to its numerous All Time High. I expect the incoming halving in 2024 to also give us something in that same light that will see the market through another ATH. I sincerely hope we don't see anything similar to what Litecoin did after its halving a few days ago. We expected price to shoot up but it slumped, disappointedly.

The halving is talked about a lot and every one keeping bitcoins now has big hopes for that time. The general hope is not the next bitcoin bull run exactly, but what the prices will be after the halving. There is a hope that there will be a rise in price after the halving even if it does not set a new highest price. If many positive events favoring bitcoin happens just before the halving, it can trigger a bull run, if positive events also happen just after the halving, I think a bull run can also be triggered. I may be wrong, but this is what I think.

We cant really be able to avoid nor really blame out each person in the community would really be having those kind of high hopes about on the bull run after that halving event of Bitcoin. This is been

known to be that most relevant event or situation that do happen on this crypto space knowing that it is really that pertaining about Bitcoins halving, supply or block rewards had been lessen into half
and if the recognition and demand would really be that increasing even more then it would really be just that normal that value would increase too. In fact, we have seen on what are the things that happened on previous halvings on which it is really that able to kick in that bull run which coins increasing out and reach their new all time highs.

This is why it is really that normal that people or the community would really be having that high hopes and anticipation for this upcoming event. Now that the market isnt really that moving
that much then we are already that in a hurry on days on approaching the halving event so that we do really able to have at least that big movement in price which is something that it is really
absent as of this moment which we are already moving sideways for too long.

Every bitcoin halving leaves an impact to all bitcoin investors. And because of the realization that every bitcoin halving makes the market more bullish and profitable, then people will definitely put in mind that whenever there’s bitcoin halving, the next bitcoin bull run will also set to happen. However, we should never close our mind to the possibility that the opposite thing will also happen. As long as the market remains unpredictable, we can never guarantee that the same thing will always happen when bitcoin halving is around.

Indeed, usually, after Bitcoin has halved, the price of Bitcoin will rise and experience a bull run a few months after the halving. This happened several bullrun cycles ago. And I'm sure many people are still speculating and hoping for that, namely Bitcoin will experience a bullrun after halving later, like previous cycles, which will be followed by an increase in altcoins in the bullish era.

However, again, no one can give a 100% accurate prediction. It could be that this cycle will change because the mined Bitcoins are also decreasing. And now many factors affect the market. So this might happen again, maybe not. But then again, I personally really hope this cycle will happen again.

If we learn the history of Bitcoin bullrun and Bitcoin halving, both of them are closely related. Every time Bitcoin halving happened, it triggered the new Bitcoin ATH. We already saw the same scheme from the first bullrun in 2013 until the latest bullrun in 2021. If we looked the bullrun history, Bitcoin halving always has a big role to trigger it happening. So, it makes sense if people think that Bitcoin halving will determine the next bullrun as well. However, the demand on the market doesn't only depend on the Bitcoin halving, there are also many other factors. It is not impossible if someday that the halving may not bring significant effect anymore due to some factors. Its hype may be reduced someday, or there is a big issue on crypto that can bring bigger impact on the demand. So, we must always have a plan if an unpredictable thing to happen. Don't only rely on the Bitcoin halving!  ;)

From history, the last all-time high of Bitcoin happened a year after the Bitcoin halving, so it was a year after the Bitcoin halving before the bull market really kicked in. Although the price of Bitcoin was very low in 2020, after the halving, the price began to go up gradually until the end of the year. I know that we can't accurately predict the movement of the Bitcoin price, so I can't say for sure that history will repeat itself again; it might happen in another form, but I am thinking that the bull market can start after the Bitcoin halving, although we might likely experience some bullish movement in price before the end of this year. I think the real bull market might happen in 2025.

Bitcoin's next bull market will begin when Bitcoin halves. We've seen Bitcoin halve every time it's had a bull market before and then the market goes up. After each halving the Bitcoin market has grown a lot and turned from a bear market to a straight sire market. So we will see the next bull market in 2024 probably when Bitcoin will halve and the market will be in a good place. Since Bitcoin halving happens every four years, we may see this as the fourth halving of Bitcoin in 2024. And when this halving basically happens, Bitcoin's bull market will start and Bitcoin's price will rise again to its all-time high.

And we have to wait until the ATH returns to the market and we are lucky that we are still given the opportunity to accumulate again.
Having a dip today provides more opportunities for us to place a buy order at a lower price than yesterday and hope that the price will touch our order price.
Whales will definitely always benefit at every moment but we can also follow whales to be able to benefit as well as them.
We only need to analyze market conditions and determine attitudes that are in accordance with what is happening in the market.
But we shouldn't rush or even panic if something happens in the market and we must remember that our target is to make profits in the long term.

Since the beginning of 2023 till now, the Bitcoin market has increased rather than decreased, so considering the positive side of the market, it can be expected that the Bitcoin market will be in a very good position in 2024. Bitcoin investors are holding onto their investments in anticipation of better things in 2024, and those with more money to invest are increasing their investments. At the moment the market position is from 29 thousand dollars to 30 thousand dollars, it will not be a difficult equation to go from this situation to 50 thousand dollars in the Bitcoin market within a year. If there is no bad news in the market then the market will go to a good state within 24 years.

Not always and instantly but Coin Halving definitely reducing bitcoin supply, using the basic economy when supply is decreasing but the demand is still and even increasing the price should be raising. All that being said with the current market, politic and economic condition in the world, I doubt the bitcoin halving will lead to a new ATH, I still think bitcoin will finally make a bull run, but new ATH is quite difficult to achieve.

It is really tied to the next halving because Bitcoin is getting rarer to mine at that time, meaning it is more valuable. That is why there is a rally on it. In the past halving, this was really the cycle, which is why a lot of people and holders right now are already accumulating bitcoin for their own good. But again, the market is always mysterious, and we don't know if it will reach its ATH again next halving.

There is nothing wrong with people expecting bitcoin to increase in price every time the havling approaches because the past has shown us that. But the future is unpredictable, and there is no guarantee that history will always repeat itself. So let's just expect what we want but always prepare ourselves with a plan for the worst case scenario. If history doesn't repeat itself and bitcoin goes up as history has proven, what do we do next? We should all be prepared for that scenario instead of being subjective that bitcoin will always go up after the halving.

Historically, yes. But this is by no means a conclusion to convince people to invest like crazy. Assuming history will repeat itself isn't an excuse not to spend a few bitcoins today if it's necessary. If you see bitcoin as a benefit over profit, then you won't pay attention to the price to own it.

There’s no guarantee that halving would be the reason for another Bitcoin bull run. It may be a catalyst in my opinion and insight, but it’s better to expect the unexpected.

Last 2020 halving, BTC hasn’t really picked up for months until December where suddenly it pumped to as much as $30k.

The following year, it was mostly Elon boy who hyped the entire crypto market by being a DOGE fanatic and bought a bunch of BTCs that made the price skyrocket to almost $70k before it came crashing due to China crackdown.

Despite the uncertainties, we always have to be ready for some unexpected circumstances and “surprises” along the way.

There's no strong evidence that Bitcoin bull markets are causally related to halving events. There haven't been enough of those to count as statistically significant, and there is a lot of vagueness that makes the hypothesis very hard to test. For instance, how much time should pass after halving for the bull run to still count as related to it? Can it start earlier and still count? How fast should the price be rising and over which periods of time? Do temporary setbacks count as counter-evidence? If so, how big they should be, and how long should they last to count as evidence toward refuting the claim that halving is related to bull runs?
As everyone does their own thing and many don't ponder these questions at all, that makes it hard to answer whether bull runs are tied to halving events.
I expect the bull market to hit in the second half of 2024, but to me, that's not based on halving.

There's already 3 halvings and I think it's already a safe conclusion that most bull runs will follow. If you're spending bitcoin for something that needs immediate attention then you need to start making more ways to make money at the least because if you're investing in bitcoin and you're lacking money for your daily expenses then you need to get your priorities straight. It's rare to see a person that's going to be preferring benefit over profit nowadays, those who spend their bitcoins most of the time still prioritizes profit.

In subjects or topics like this, I've always been of the opinion that bull runs are not tied to Bitcoin halving, and that the fact that we have always experienced a bull season during every bitcoin halving season is not an indication that such thing is established and will continue like that forever, NO, I've always said it that, at some point in time, Bitcoin halving will come and go normally and the price of bitcoin will not move upward an inch, at this time, it simply means the market have matured and bull runs are no longer triggered by simple things like halving.

But then, the thing now is that we really can not tell when the market have matured to that level where halving is no longer a catalyst for bitcoin to move up in price, maybe the market is matured now, maybe the market is not yet matured but will in the future, no body can really tell, only when the halving comes and goes, what happens will tell if bull runs have moved away from bitcoin halving or not, meanwhile, we should never forget to only invest as much as we can afford to lose, most especially, if you are investing in Altcoins.

Logic would tell me that there isn't much bitcoin left to mine, what about 2 million last time I checked. So as a supply side it's already there.  So I would expect a slightly muted response over other halving. Fomo leading to a false bull.

I will happily give my BTC and haircut at that time and take peoples money

All things actually must have a connection between one another. Whether it's Halving, the global economy, technological advances, cultural shifts to more practical things or modernization and so on. Everything has its own role which if linked will be connected to one another. Likewise about the next bitcoin bull market, it must be related to all of that and of course it is also related to the halving in it. And actually apart from the Halving, now we can also see how rapidly the number of wallets collecting bitcoins is growing. Which means that more and more people are investing for the long term in bitcoin. Even in some countries they buy bitcoins to save the value of their assets because the fiat they hold is eroded by high inflation so exchanging it into bitcoins is a way out for them. The point is the adoption rate of bitcoin itself will be the trigger for the price increase. In the past, maybe the adoption of bitcoin was only glimpsed by small players, but now more institutions are also interested and continue to accumulate bitcoin.

The halving mechanism does more than maintain scarcity; it showcases the indisputable superiority of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. The problem with traditional financial systems? Inflation! Central banks print money on a whim. But Bitcoin? It's math. Immutable. Predictable.

To address your question, while past halvings have correlated with bull markets, attributing a direct causal link is intellectually lazy. Yes, the 2012 and 2016 halvings signaled surges in price, but correlation doesn’t imply causation. With our evolving financial ecosystem, there's a myriad of factors influencing Bitcoin's valuation.

Nonetheless, Bitcoin's fundamentals remain as robust as ever. Its scarcity, decentralized nature, and global acceptance reinforce its position as the prime candidate for a store of value in our increasingly digital world. Regardless of the halving's immediate impact, Bitcoin's long-term trajectory, in my educated opinion, is undoubtedly upward. The real question isn't whether Bitcoin will experience another bull run; it's when, and how high, will it soar!

Your comment sound like an anti bitcoin in person, many people have thought about this when we just had the last Bull run and guess what, we had an incredible run that we have long had in this space, people profited and some left and the journey continue from there until we hit a milestone of $58K, This time around, do you know where will be heading this time? Technically, not an assurance but we are going to have a Bull run whether they like it or not because the miners can't be sustainable with 3.125 BTC to maintain their business and while you are away to give your BTC, you will buy them at a high price because it's becoming deflationary every day in supply and the demand will continue to increase.

When you are going for a haircut, please take me along, I will like to shave my beards, too much eye on BTC and no time to trim them. ;)

The concepts of "Halving" and "Bullrun" are indeed interconnected. While I'm not harboring grand expectations, as this realm veers into speculative terrain, I would certainly find delight if the prices do surge, given that I've retained a modest stash of Bitcoin up until this point. Conversely, a price dip wouldn't perturb me, as the Bitcoin holdings I possess are distinct from my primary financial stability.

Nonetheless, I hold a conviction that Bitcoin is poised for a Bullrun akin to previous halving cycles. It usually takes around a year after a halving event for Bitcoin to reach its peak. While I may not wield the mantle of a technical analysis maestro, this four-year cycle seems to have held true over time.

We're almost at 19.5M, so only 1.5 left to go.

What is a false bull? A bull run is when the price keeps going up. It doesn't have to break the last ATH, or it can go over it by a bit. The importance of a bull run is that the price keeps going up, with every subsequent correction ending with a higher low. This is pretty much the whole history of bitcoin, where in 2018, after the bull run, the price went to 3k, but in the next bear market of 2022 we made it only to 15k. In the long run we are in a bull market!

Short-term, it's enough for the price to stay above 25k, bounce back and hit something higher than 32k for us to officially be in a bull run. It's that simple!

It's really hard to predict what will happen after the next halving, but I believe that most people here are expecting a new bull run, given that such events have historically led to increases in the past years. This might happens shortly after the halving or could take some time.

I'm really curious about what will exactly happens, but for now I'm focusing on holding onto as much Bitcoin as I can and trying to not spend a lot. I'm just waiting a new ATH which really could be reached in 2024.

As history may repeat itself, and so it does what happens every after bitcoin halving. Although I believe bull run does not only rely in bitcoin halving, as there are a lot of factors that will contribute to make it happen, but I also cannot change the fact that in every bitcoin halving, bitcoin bull run will definitely follow. So perhaps these two events are certainly connected to each other, but it also does not mean that if there’s no bitcoin halving happening, bull run will never be possible at all.

You are right about unpredictability but it's always tied to halving. The bull run either starts months before or close to its date and after a year the bear market also starts just as we always experienced in the past. This year however is seem early because we hit $30k while it's just early 2023 while halving is next year.

If we reach $40k by this year, it's really going to be what they speculate to be a super cycle. Hoping or it to happen.

It is possible that future halvings will act as starting points for bull runs even if they themselves will no longer have any significant effect on the supply, but I don't think that could last for too long. We might see one or two bull runs fuelled primarily by psychology (aka investors' feelings) but in the long-run there would have to be some more solid reason to trigger price rally. I expect in the future BTC's price would act more like price of stocks and will be affected mostly by news and economic environment.

It has evolved somehow but it's always that the cycle portrays how the next bull run will come.

None at all but just the cycles and halving and bit of news.

Right, the last bull run was quite different because the gain was astronomical. But if we're going to look at the charts, it should really is but it's based on long term gains unlike the 2021 bull run which was the most impressive so far.

Bull run are not specifically tied to bitcoin halving, but however reason why many people believe that bull run always comes after Bitcoin halving is because,  during each halving,  the seize of the block rewards are reduced and by so doing to total rewards on each blocks becomes smaller and that make for more scarcity that will increase the value since the supply will become smaller that the demands and that could become a trigger for price hyke which ultimately will become a full blown bull market.

So for that, the bitcoin bull market can happen anytime,  but Bitcoin halving is a measure trigger for a bull run but not the primary or sole reason for bull run.

bitcoin price is hugely affected by sentiments. i think if bitcoin is already 100% minted now then the price will continue to rise due to the deflation effect and growing number of bitcoin adoption, this is technical reason. today bitcoin is not 100% minted  yet which means that the supply in the market is increasing. but today bitcoin price is still tend to rise which means bitcoin adoption rate is big enough to increase the number of demand. in this condition, when halving event happen the increasing btc supply in the market will decrease which means it will make the power of the demand even stronger. this situation will attracts more investors to invest in bitcoin which will make the power of demand even stronger again and again. this will create more positive sentiments to attracts more investors, more and more until it reach the equilibrium. so the conclusion is the halving event will create snow ball effect in the market. that's my opinion.

There could be a big news for the next halving, and I'm talking about the possibility to see several bitcoin spot ETFs approved, something that never happened before: if that was the case then we could see a bull run even before the halving because probably several of these funds will start buying and accumulating while the price is still low otherwise it will be them that will drive the price up like crazy.

I feel like it will definitely continue forever. I do not see a reason why it shouldn't happen again and again. Not like we are going to face anything different, everything is similar and that is why we should be seeing it do a lot better than people think.

Why do you think that it went from 15k levels to 30k levels already, and the closer we get to halving the higher we will get as well and after halving we are going to see it grow even more and more eventually as well. This is going to matter a lot, and we are going to see the same thing happen again. Of course it is not going to be a simple thing, and we are going to end up with a bit of difference on percentage, but the movement will be towards higher price for sure.

I believe what you say will happen at some point. I agree that the block reward halving is being a big catalyst for the price of bitcoin but it is not the main factor. The value of any asset is determined by supply and demand, without demand, even with a limited supply, it becomes useless. So as bitcoin becomes more mature, and less manipulated, the halving will no longer affect or will cease to be what we would expect to trigger a bull market. But for now, we shouldn't deny the important role of the halving.

Just have to point out that we are in the bull market already! Technically, bull market has started right after we reached the lowest point of the cycle. This bull is still young, but historically it's going to mature around halving time.

Of course, we can't predict the future, but Bitcoin cycles are still valid (kind of). As to the ATH, it can come some 1-2 months earlier (remember November 2021 top?) and will reach at least $70k x 2 = $140k. This is a very conservative estimate or a "worst case scenario".  ::)

I don't think anything programming is attached to the bullrun but is it generally speculated that after halving comes bull run because and that has been so over the we years and I don not think there would be any difference from the previous this time. Although it might likely not not go beyond the last all time high but the price is expected to grow or bull than its current state when it's time for the halving.

Although all these are just speculations from different quarters but I believe the notion has already been there long before now and whenever it gets to that point, the demand for Bitcoin surges and that alone makes the price for Bitcoin surges higher than it was.

So therefore, I have no doubt the next bull run will be different from other previous ones that have already occurred.

That 'self-fulfilling prophecy' thing is basically what drives the market up and down because the market moves based on supply and demand and when the whole market stops demanding when there are only suppliers, the market tends to go down, on the other hand, when there is more demand than the suppliers, those demanding will get ready to give more money to get the available supply which drives the market up and that is what also brings the bull run.

The halving might help to reduce the upcoming circulating supply but the actual reason behind the bull market is what I explained above, people wait until the halving is near and they start buying around that time which pumps the market and it goes very high, and once it reaches the peak, everyone starts selling to take profit and no one wants to buy higher so the market starts to crash once again.

It's safe to follow the trend, as typically after the halving, the price of Bitcoin rises. The next halving is scheduled for April 25, 2024. It might be a good idea to start accumulating Bitcoin next year, as Bitcoin's price is currently not at its lowest. Although the price has stabilized in the range of $29k to $30k, there's a possibility that it could still drop before the next bull run occurs. Timing is crucial if we're aiming for significant profits, not this year but the next, because halving usually brings positive news.

However, if you're a short-term trader, no specific date or year is important, as the market is volatile. You can trade on any given date.

No one knows when the next bull run will come. We can only prepare for its arrival by accumulating more Bitcoins from now on. It could be the bull run coming before or after the halving comes but it could be after a year of the halving then the bull run will come.

The next halving will affect the next bull run and there is a possibility that it will trigger the price to increase very much. Meanwhile, we can only check the indicators on the market to find out if there is a surge in demand and supply so that we can know or predict what will happen next.

So it's better to focus on collecting more Bitcoins for now because it will affect how much profit you can make in the next bull run. And don't panic if you read negative news on social media so you can make the most of the moment. We need to remain patient in waiting for the bull run to come.

Of course timing is crucial when it comes to Bitcoin investment and doing it now would put you on the  right track. As it is currently, now is the right time to accumulate more Bitcoin as the price is on the lower side. While we approach the halving next year there is always uncertainty which would trigger market actions either on the buying side or the selling side either way, both work for the good of price action as the demand and other factors would definitely come in play. Just like you have said, surely we are looking forward to seeing and hearing the good news come halving next year.

In terms of timing, every investor or trader has their own timing as we each have our own speculation based on personal analysis. However, when considering the big picture, I'm quite sure that as experienced investors, we would agree that buying now or at any point as long as the price remains lower than the current all-time high, will likely result in a decent profit once the next bull run arrives. It's probable that it will surpass the current all-time high and increase significantly before the market enters a correction stage again.

The price of BTC is definitely tied to bitcoin halving because the mining reward keeps decreasing in ever halving.
So it makes sense that bitcoin price will grow after every bitcoin halving. The rate at which new coins enter the market keeps diminishing causing the surge in BTC price.
But we can't accurately predict when the price will increase and so it's better to buy more before the halving.
We have recovered well from the bottom of bear market and so I think now would be a good time to start buying.

Of course, reducing the block reward after each halving actually limits the new supply of Bitcoin, contributing to a situation of relative scarcity that makes buyers and investors feel more interested and willing to buy. enter.

Plus, market sentiment can create a self-executing bull loop. When market participants see that the price tends to increase after each halving, they can create expectations for a further rally and decide to buy, increasing the price further. This can also stimulate the entry of new people and create a bull cycle in the future.

From my little research and findings bull run does not necessarily means that the price must surpass the last all time high but it definitely would surpass the initial price  to which it was before the bull run. So technically, it is best one accumulates enough Bitcoin as it is now at the lower price and doing that you already know that would yield some more big profit and Note this is not a financial advise.

While it is not a must to reach a new all time high for a movement to be called a bull run, it is necessary to instill confidence on the market, after all bitcoin went from 3k which was its lowest point during the previous bear market to 69k, now the bottom during this cycle was 15k, if bitcoin was unable to reach a new ATH this will raise some red flags, as it should be easier to reach 69k than in the past, and if the demand does not have the strenght to make the price that high then this could be a sign about the popularity of bitcoin declining.

I would be lying if I say I’ll never be expecting a bull run after this bitcoin halving. For most of us here, I think bull run may be tied to bitcoin halving event. But I’m not saying that if there’s no bitcoin halving that’s supposed to happen, then we will never witness another bull run. Of course, it always depends on the factors affecting the market’s condition. If there will be a sudden price hike that will consistently appear in the market, then most possibly it will lead to another bitcoin bull run. However, know that those previous bitcoin bull run have happened after the bitcoin halving event. So if we will witness bitcoin halving this 2024, then probably the next bitcoin bull run will be on 2025. That’s not far from happening I guess.

No it is not and there is actually no significant connection between these two. In fact, miners will be the who gets affected on this as they will get their block reward cut into half again. So, it's gonna be a survival competition for them when this even occur, some might halt and some are upgrading to still maximize their earnings.
One of the main reason why we think bullrun is tied with the bitcoin halving is because of the history we had, that started late in 2017 (post halving) If I'm not mistaken, where bitcoin rose in an unprecedented fashion and everyone was not expecting for that rise, and then followed by the next halving which almost have the same outcome. Now for the 3rd straight halving people are still expecting the same. So, it is the people's perception on Bitcoin halving that could initiate a bullrun.

There is already a date for the anticipated bull run.  You can read above your reply on when it can possibly happen.


I also think that the next halving will have a great effect on the bitcoin market trend.  Since the halving is known to be one of the catalysts of Bitcoin bull run, it is observed that Bitcoin bull run will happen after the Bitcoin halving.


I also agree that as an investor, we should be focused on accumulating Bitcoin while the market is at its bear market especially today when the Bitcoin market crashes to $27k.  This is one of the better day to DCA because bitcoin price goes down a bit than its usual $29k sideway trend.

We cannot deny that those previous bull runs have happened after those visible bitcoin halving so for me, it’s never bad to expect if the next bull run is also tied to the next bitcoin halving. History may repeat or will always repeat itself. However, knowing the market is still highly volatile and unpredictable, the best thing we can do for now is to prepare for the next bitcoin bull run. No need to time the market, we can always be profitable whenever we see good chances to make profits.

I do not think confidence is lost in any ways as the market force pressure is still ok. What I just feel is the possibility of market manipulation by the whales to accumulate more ahead of the Bitcoin halving and if you check, the price is currently down and more purchase are recorded  on daily basis via exchanges and well known p2p platforms globally.
Bitcoin reaching all time high or not would not trigger any alarm as people are fully informed about Bitcoin volatility and market actions. So I do not see any possibility of Bitcoin decline in demand after halving irrespective of the fact of not surpassing previous all time high.

One thing that you have to understand when it comes to bitcoin price predictions is that, not all bull runs are halvings, but all halvings are bull runs.

Bull runs can be made under different circumstances and different factors, it just so happens that one of the most common ways you could start one is by reducing the total block rewards by half when you mine in what we lovingly call the "Halving". There are other ways for bull runs to happen, but one thing's for sure, the hype and the added perceived scarcity of bitcoin after every halving causes it to rise drastically in value, and initiate a bull run.

Next halving, we can expect an upsurge in price just similar to the ones we've had in the past. We haven't seen anything remarkable yet, but that's only because we're not yet there. A few months before halving or so and we'd see people's anticipation well up in the form of price pumps.

We can't be sure of the next bull run. Right now the market have crashed. This is completely expected and we can expect this to continue for some time period before making a bounce in the market. For now the discussion will get started, what was the reason behind the crash of the market. For now Elon Musk owned SpaceX selling a huge part of bitcoin holding is termed to be the reason. Lets see what all the other news getting added in connection with the drop in the price of bitcoin. For all who have been waiting for buying could concentrate on the market to make an entry at the right time.

The market has crashed? What market are you talking about? Bitcoin? Or Evergrande's stock market? Because one just lost 4-5% and the other one has gone to zero so I guess, or better, I hope, you are talking about Evergrande, that has nothing to do with bitcoin nor the halving. Or, if you are actually talking about bitcoin then you are either trolling or fudding because no one would ever say that bitcoin, in this moment, has crashed.

The point is that halving are almost always followed by a bullrun and a new ATH, the historical patterns have shown it already so I wouldn't say most of the time but "always". Yes, it might take a year last time but isn't that a good thing? That's a grace period for everyone to get more bitcoin while the ATH isn't there yet if I say so myself. Regarding the question in the title though, I don't think that it's tied but it's surely a cause, the difficulty of mining increases which makes the increase in supply of bitcoin much more scarce.

For me, the bull run will start months before the Bitcoin block halving event not after or during.
So for me, history repeats itself. I am hoping a bull run will start this year or the first quarter of next year, as long as it is before the Bitcoin block halving event.

It is an important date even for those traders who already have experience in analyzing bullish and bearish movements, it is known that these people dedicate their time to obtain profits in this way and although they can prepare plays to increase their personal assets at any time, they recognize It is in these times when opportunities cannot be missed, in an event like the one that is just a few months away, which is not so common and repetitive, merchants or people looking for an investment with bitcoin can afford to losing such an important occasion, that is why they encourage preparation with their actions, accumulating bitcoin as far as they can, many of us are excited by the impact that the halving will produce, and this is because this event is expected to come with results favorable for this currency, changing the bearish outlook.

It is unpredictable when Bitcoin will be bullish. According to the previous Bitcoin price pattern and the upcoming halving, there is quite a possibility that the price of Bitcoin will rise. As miners in halving will get less mining rewards, Bitcoin price may see a big bullish movement. Although there is no guarantee that it will exceed All time high price. However, after 4 years, the price of Bitcoin can increase significantly due to the halving algorithm of Bitcoin. So in 2024 and 2025 we will see a big bullish movement in Bitcoin price.

He was wrong to use the word "crash" for what was happening with bitcoin.  but I think he means that the market is being heavily dumped as bitcoin is down more than 10%, and all altcoins are also down 10%-15% in a short time.  And the dumped market is really a surprise as we don't have any remarkable information that caused it and even the collapse of Evergrande was not the cause.  I also tried looking for some news about the Spacex bitcoin sale or the Evergrande demise, but I didn't find any connection to the market being dumped.

Well, isn't it just like the mainstream to misuse a term like "crash"? To throw around words without understanding their weight? It's down 10%, not 90%—let's get our facts straight! A mere hiccup for something as resilient and dominant as bitcoin. And as for the altcoins? Who cares? They merely follow the king, Bitcoin. Why? Because Bitcoin leads and the rest just tag along. Now, the Evergrande collapse and the SpaceX sale are distractions. Don't connect dots that aren't there

Same here as I have also search every possible reason for the market to fall this drastically over a space of 12hours. This dump has caused many naive investor to panic because they all perceived that since we are heading close to the halving that Bitcoin will only push up but the sudden dip has surprise everyone but notwithstanding it can be still seen as a positive effect because we can use this medium to actually buy more Bitcoin.

The media often uses confusing terms or mix them up in order to create controversy and that is what they are doing here, when it comes to the stock market a drop of 5% in a single day is a complete catastrophe and that is enough to be called a crash, however as we know the volatility of bitcoin is much higher and a 10% drop is something we have seen many times on the past, just as we have seen a 10% rise many times as well, but by using the standards of the stock market with bitcoin they can create a sensational news and scare the weak hands even further.

Even if I would say it’s not but for the past bull runs, they actually happened after every bitcoin halving so perhaps bitcoin bull run is really tied to its bitcoin halving. The exact reason why we should never miss to prepare our bitcoin portfolio for the next bull run that is bound to happen hopefully by 2025 after the expected bitcoin halving next year. This time, bitcoin price is expected to reach its new all time high and should exceed the btc price of $68k. Seeing bitcoin price is moving positively, then hopefully it will end up with a new 6 digit price that everyone is waiting for.

Media always confuses the investors by their own words,we should get divert by the media.When you had steady plan,you can proceed without any hesitation.When some drop in the price of bitcoin,the media will portrait it in high way and then the panic seller and newbie will cash out from the bitcoin.This automatically creates some less demand for the bitcoin,the market will continue to move maximum to the 10% percentage change to the current value.So media plays huge role in investments.

Bitcoin halving will make short term shocks in block rewards as well as income for Bitcoin miners but they will adapt to it and in past halvings, price grew well after that so miner income won't be affected too much by halve of block reward.

However, we must know one more thing, income of Bitcoin miners should come from transaction fees which come from their transaction confirmation for Bitcoin users. Block rewards were not designed to be main source of Bitcoin miner income.

When you search, you will find news and some information which will be released on media to officially explain why the market moves like that. They are not real reasons and you will realize it when you have been in this market long enough. Market manipulators direct the market into their favorite directions and plans. After they completed their plans, they will release news for you but in fact they all prepared those news before market crash. They only wait for a right time to release news which satisfies your curiosity and angry after losing money in the market.

Based on what has happened in the past, it can be seen that there is a very strong correlation between the halving and the price increase of the market. So, it is not wrong to say that the price increase of the market is somewhat dependent and tied to the halving. But in the next bull run since we don't have a crystal ball to predict the future, it's hard to say what, and what we can do is hope history repeats itself. But it's all guesswork, history may or may not repeat itself, so don't be too subjective with our predictions.

Predicting the price of Bitcoin is a difficult task and no one can be sure of it. The cryptocurrency market is truly volatile and unexpected, and there are diverse factors that affect price movements.

Focusing on accumulating more Bitcoin is a smart way to prepare for the future. Not only will it help you take advantage of future buying opportunities, but it will also increase the likelihood that you can benefit from the next bull run. However, remember that investing always carries a degree of risk, and risk management is an important part of your investment strategy.

We really need to be patient when approaching the cryptocurrency market. Avoiding being affected by negative news or short-term changes and focusing on your long-term strategy is the best way to weather these swings in the market.