Next Bitcoin Bull Run: Is It Tied to the Next Halving?

[Fivestar4everMVP]

In subjects or topics like this, I've always been of the opinion that bull runs are not tied to Bitcoin halving, and that the fact that we have always experienced a bull season during every bitcoin halving season is not an indication that such thing is established and will continue like that forever, NO, I've always said it that, at some point in time, Bitcoin halving will come and go normally and the price of bitcoin will not move upward an inch, at this time, it simply means the market have matured and bull runs are no longer triggered by simple things like halving.

But then, the thing now is that we really can not tell when the market have matured to that level where halving is no longer a catalyst for bitcoin to move up in price, maybe the market is matured now, maybe the market is not yet matured but will in the future, no body can really tell, only when the halving comes and goes, what happens will tell if bull runs have moved away from bitcoin halving or not, meanwhile, we should never forget to only invest as much as we can afford to lose, most especially, if you are investing in Altcoins.

[spectre71]

Logic would tell me that there isn't much bitcoin left to mine, what about 2 million last time I checked. So as a supply side it's already there.  So I would expect a slightly muted response over other halving. Fomo leading to a false bull.

I will happily give my BTC and haircut at that time and take peoples money

[Ahli38]

All things actually must have a connection between one another. Whether it's Halving, the global economy, technological advances, cultural shifts to more practical things or modernization and so on. Everything has its own role which if linked will be connected to one another. Likewise about the next bitcoin bull market, it must be related to all of that and of course it is also related to the halving in it. And actually apart from the Halving, now we can also see how rapidly the number of wallets collecting bitcoins is growing. Which means that more and more people are investing for the long term in bitcoin. Even in some countries they buy bitcoins to save the value of their assets because the fiat they hold is eroded by high inflation so exchanging it into bitcoins is a way out for them. The point is the adoption rate of bitcoin itself will be the trigger for the price increase. In the past, maybe the adoption of bitcoin was only glimpsed by small players, but now more institutions are also interested and continue to accumulate bitcoin.

[Blitzboy]

The halving mechanism does more than maintain scarcity; it showcases the indisputable superiority of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. The problem with traditional financial systems? Inflation! Central banks print money on a whim. But Bitcoin? It's math. Immutable. Predictable.

To address your question, while past halvings have correlated with bull markets, attributing a direct causal link is intellectually lazy. Yes, the 2012 and 2016 halvings signaled surges in price, but correlation doesn’t imply causation. With our evolving financial ecosystem, there's a myriad of factors influencing Bitcoin's valuation.

Nonetheless, Bitcoin's fundamentals remain as robust as ever. Its scarcity, decentralized nature, and global acceptance reinforce its position as the prime candidate for a store of value in our increasingly digital world. Regardless of the halving's immediate impact, Bitcoin's long-term trajectory, in my educated opinion, is undoubtedly upward. The real question isn't whether Bitcoin will experience another bull run; it's when, and how high, will it soar!

[Cookdata]

Logic would tell me that there isn't much bitcoin left to mine, what about 2 million last time I checked. So as a supply side it's already there.  So I would expect a slightly muted response over other halving. Fomo leading to a false bull.

I will happily give my BTC and haircut at that time and take peoples money

Your comment sound like an anti bitcoin in person, many people have thought about this when we just had the last Bull run and guess what, we had an incredible run that we have long had in this space, people profited and some left and the journey continue from there until we hit a milestone of $58K, This time around, do you know where will be heading this time? Technically, not an assurance but we are going to have a Bull run whether they like it or not because the miners can't be sustainable with 3.125 BTC to maintain their business and while you are away to give your BTC, you will buy them at a high price because it's becoming deflationary every day in supply and the demand will continue to increase.

When you are going for a haircut, please take me along, I will like to shave my beards, too much eye on BTC and no time to trim them.

[bayu7adi]

The concepts of "Halving" and "Bullrun" are indeed interconnected. While I'm not harboring grand expectations, as this realm veers into speculative terrain, I would certainly find delight if the prices do surge, given that I've retained a modest stash of Bitcoin up until this point. Conversely, a price dip wouldn't perturb me, as the Bitcoin holdings I possess are distinct from my primary financial stability.

Nonetheless, I hold a conviction that Bitcoin is poised for a Bullrun akin to previous halving cycles. It usually takes around a year after a halving event for Bitcoin to reach its peak. While I may not wield the mantle of a technical analysis maestro, this four-year cycle seems to have held true over time.

[coolcoinz]

Logic would tell me that there isn't much bitcoin left to mine, what about 2 million last time I checked. So as a supply side it's already there.  So I would expect a slightly muted response over other halving. Fomo leading to a false bull.

I will happily give my BTC and haircut at that time and take peoples money

We're almost at 19.5M, so only 1.5 left to go.

What is a false bull? A bull run is when the price keeps going up. It doesn't have to break the last ATH, or it can go over it by a bit. The importance of a bull run is that the price keeps going up, with every subsequent correction ending with a higher low. This is pretty much the whole history of bitcoin, where in 2018, after the bull run, the price went to 3k, but in the next bear market of 2022 we made it only to 15k. In the long run we are in a bull market!

Short-term, it's enough for the price to stay above 25k, bounce back and hit something higher than 32k for us to officially be in a bull run. It's that simple!

[Aikidoka]

It's really hard to predict what will happen after the next halving, but I believe that most people here are expecting a new bull run, given that such events have historically led to increases in the past years. This might happens shortly after the halving or could take some time.

I'm really curious about what will exactly happens, but for now I'm focusing on holding onto as much Bitcoin as I can and trying to not spend a lot. I'm just waiting a new ATH which really could be reached in 2024.

[Japinat]

As history may repeat itself, and so it does what happens every after bitcoin halving. Although I believe bull run does not only rely in bitcoin halving, as there are a lot of factors that will contribute to make it happen, but I also cannot change the fact that in every bitcoin halving, bitcoin bull run will definitely follow. So perhaps these two events are certainly connected to each other, but it also does not mean that if there’s no bitcoin halving happening, bull run will never be possible at all.

[bittraffic]

You are right about unpredictability but it's always tied to halving. The bull run either starts months before or close to its date and after a year the bear market also starts just as we always experienced in the past. This year however is seem early because we hit $30k while it's just early 2023 while halving is next year.

If we reach $40k by this year, it's really going to be what they speculate to be a super cycle. Hoping or it to happen.

[pawel7777]

This is most likely the future of the bull runs caused by the halving, the halving is becoming less and less significant as miners are becoming more reliant on the fees they get from each block they mine, however it is to be expected that a residual effect will still last for a very long time and after each halving there is a moderate increase in price, even if this is not justified anymore as speculators will push the price up high enough for retail traders to notice and join the movement.

It is possible that future halvings will act as starting points for bull runs even if they themselves will no longer have any significant effect on the supply, but I don't think that could last for too long. We might see one or two bull runs fuelled primarily by psychology (aka investors' feelings) but in the long-run there would have to be some more solid reason to trigger price rally. I expect in the future BTC's price would act more like price of stocks and will be affected mostly by news and economic environment.

[blockman]

So, what are your thoughts? Do you believe that the next Bitcoin bull run is likely to follow the upcoming halving, or do you think the market has evolved beyond such a simple pattern?

It has evolved somehow but it's always that the cycle portrays how the next bull run will come.

Are there any other indicators or factors that you're closely watching? Let's share our insights and engage in a constructive discussion on this fascinating topic.

None at all but just the cycles and halving and bit of news.

Remember, none of us can predict the future with absolute certainty, but by combining our knowledge and perspectives, we can gain a deeper understanding of the complex forces driving the cryptocurrency market. Let's keep the conversation respectful and open-minded as we explore the possibilities together.

Looking forward to hearing your opinions and theories!

Right, the last bull run was quite different because the gain was astronomical. But if we're going to look at the charts, it should really is but it's based on long term gains unlike the 2021 bull run which was the most impressive so far.

[Wiwo]

Bull run are not specifically tied to bitcoin halving, but however reason why many people believe that bull run always comes after Bitcoin halving is because,  during each halving,  the seize of the block rewards are reduced and by so doing to total rewards on each blocks becomes smaller and that make for more scarcity that will increase the value since the supply will become smaller that the demands and that could become a trigger for price hyke which ultimately will become a full blown bull market.

So for that, the bitcoin bull market can happen anytime,  but Bitcoin halving is a measure trigger for a bull run but not the primary or sole reason for bull run.

[rikybrosh]

bitcoin price is hugely affected by sentiments. i think if bitcoin is already 100% minted now then the price will continue to rise due to the deflation effect and growing number of bitcoin adoption, this is technical reason. today bitcoin is not 100% minted  yet which means that the supply in the market is increasing. but today bitcoin price is still tend to rise which means bitcoin adoption rate is big enough to increase the number of demand. in this condition, when halving event happen the increasing btc supply in the market will decrease which means it will make the power of the demand even stronger. this situation will attracts more investors to invest in bitcoin which will make the power of demand even stronger again and again. this will create more positive sentiments to attracts more investors, more and more until it reach the equilibrium. so the conclusion is the halving event will create snow ball effect in the market. that's my opinion.

[Ale88]

With the next Bitcoin halving on the horizon, scheduled to happen around [estimated date], many are wondering if history will repeat itself. Will the reduction in the rate of new Bitcoin issuance spark a renewed interest and demand, potentially triggering the next bull market? Or has the market matured in a way that makes these correlations less predictable?

It's worth noting that while previous halvings have been associated with bullish trends, there are numerous other factors at play in the cryptocurrency market. These include regulatory developments, technological advancements, macroeconomic conditions, institutional adoption, and shifts in investor sentiment, just to name a few. The dynamics of the market have become more intricate over time, making it difficult to attribute price movements solely to the halving event.

There could be a big news for the next halving, and I'm talking about the possibility to see several bitcoin spot ETFs approved, something that never happened before: if that was the case then we could see a bull run even before the halving because probably several of these funds will start buying and accumulating while the price is still low otherwise it will be them that will drive the price up like crazy.

[justdimin]

In subjects or topics like this, I've always been of the opinion that bull runs are not tied to Bitcoin halving, and that the fact that we have always experienced a bull season during every bitcoin halving season is not an indication that such thing is established and will continue like that forever, NO, I've always said it that, at some point in time, Bitcoin halving will come and go normally and the price of bitcoin will not move upward an inch, at this time, it simply means the market have matured and bull runs are no longer triggered by simple things like halving.

But then, the thing now is that we really can not tell when the market have matured to that level where halving is no longer a catalyst for bitcoin to move up in price, maybe the market is matured now, maybe the market is not yet matured but will in the future, no body can really tell, only when the halving comes and goes, what happens will tell if bull runs have moved away from bitcoin halving or not, meanwhile, we should never forget to only invest as much as we can afford to lose, most especially, if you are investing in Altcoins.

I feel like it will definitely continue forever. I do not see a reason why it shouldn't happen again and again. Not like we are going to face anything different, everything is similar and that is why we should be seeing it do a lot better than people think.

Why do you think that it went from 15k levels to 30k levels already, and the closer we get to halving the higher we will get as well and after halving we are going to see it grow even more and more eventually as well. This is going to matter a lot, and we are going to see the same thing happen again. Of course it is not going to be a simple thing, and we are going to end up with a bit of difference on percentage, but the movement will be towards higher price for sure.

[fuguebtc]

In subjects or topics like this, I've always been of the opinion that bull runs are not tied to Bitcoin halving, and that the fact that we have always experienced a bull season during every bitcoin halving season is not an indication that such thing is established and will continue like that forever, NO, I've always said it that, at some point in time, Bitcoin halving will come and go normally and the price of bitcoin will not move upward an inch, at this time, it simply means the market have matured and bull runs are no longer triggered by simple things like halving.

But then, the thing now is that we really can not tell when the market have matured to that level where halving is no longer a catalyst for bitcoin to move up in price, maybe the market is matured now, maybe the market is not yet matured but will in the future, no body can really tell, only when the halving comes and goes, what happens will tell if bull runs have moved away from bitcoin halving or not, meanwhile, we should never forget to only invest as much as we can afford to lose, most especially, if you are investing in Altcoins.

I believe what you say will happen at some point. I agree that the block reward halving is being a big catalyst for the price of bitcoin but it is not the main factor. The value of any asset is determined by supply and demand, without demand, even with a limited supply, it becomes useless. So as bitcoin becomes more mature, and less manipulated, the halving will no longer affect or will cease to be what we would expect to trigger a bull market. But for now, we shouldn't deny the important role of the halving.

[serveria.com]

Hey fellow crypto enthusiasts,

I hope everyone is doing well and staying excited about the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrencies! Lately, I've been pondering a question that I'm sure many of us have on our minds: when can we expect the next Bitcoin bull run? Could it potentially coincide with the next Bitcoin halving? Let's dive into this intriguing topic and share our thoughts.

For those unfamiliar, the Bitcoin halving is an event that occurs approximately every four years, where the number of new Bitcoins mined per block is reduced by half. This mechanism is coded into Bitcoin's protocol and is designed to control its supply and maintain scarcity over time. Previous halvings, such as the ones in 2012 and 2016, were followed by significant price increases and bull runs that captured the attention of the entire financial world.

With the next Bitcoin halving on the horizon, scheduled to happen around [estimated date], many are wondering if history will repeat itself. Will the reduction in the rate of new Bitcoin issuance spark a renewed interest and demand, potentially triggering the next bull market? Or has the market matured in a way that makes these correlations less predictable?

It's worth noting that while previous halvings have been associated with bullish trends, there are numerous other factors at play in the cryptocurrency market. These include regulatory developments, technological advancements, macroeconomic conditions, institutional adoption, and shifts in investor sentiment, just to name a few. The dynamics of the market have become more intricate over time, making it difficult to attribute price movements solely to the halving event.

So, what are your thoughts? Do you believe that the next Bitcoin bull run is likely to follow the upcoming halving, or do you think the market has evolved beyond such a simple pattern? Are there any other indicators or factors that you're closely watching? Let's share our insights and engage in a constructive discussion on this fascinating topic.

Remember, none of us can predict the future with absolute certainty, but by combining our knowledge and perspectives, we can gain a deeper understanding of the complex forces driving the cryptocurrency market. Let's keep the conversation respectful and open-minded as we explore the possibilities together.

Looking forward to hearing your opinions and theories!

Just have to point out that we are in the bull market already! Technically, bull market has started right after we reached the lowest point of the cycle. This bull is still young, but historically it's going to mature around halving time.

Of course, we can't predict the future, but Bitcoin cycles are still valid (kind of). As to the ATH, it can come some 1-2 months earlier (remember November 2021 top?) and will reach at least $70k x 2 = $140k. This is a very conservative estimate or a "worst case scenario". 

[CryptSafe]

Not exactly that the bull run is programmed or tied to Bitcoin's halving, but rather the psychological part of it on investors that Bitcoin gets cut into halves and the inflation rate reduced, instigating the buying pressure that brings about a bull market thereafter.
We may get or may not get the usual super bull run, where we do see crazy price movement because of diminishing returns, an example is seen from the previous bull market where almost everyone was expecting the price to go way high $100k-$250k per BTC.

I don't think anything programming is attached to the bullrun but is it generally speculated that after halving comes bull run because and that has been so over the we years and I don not think there would be any difference from the previous this time. Although it might likely not not go beyond the last all time high but the price is expected to grow or bull than its current state when it's time for the halving.

Although all these are just speculations from different quarters but I believe the notion has already been there long before now and whenever it gets to that point, the demand for Bitcoin surges and that alone makes the price for Bitcoin surges higher than it was.

So therefore, I have no doubt the next bull run will be different from other previous ones that have already occurred.

[savetheFORUM]

93% of all bitcoins have already been mined, and each next halving has 50% less effect on reduction of block reward, so obviously we can't expect bull runs to be synchronised with halvings forever. But I imagine the next halving (expected April/May 2024) will still be the catalyst for the next rally, even simply because of the psychological factor. If everyone expects something to happen, it could create the "self fulfilling prophecy" scenario. And, of course, 50% less selling pressure from the miners will also have a positive impact.

That 'self-fulfilling prophecy' thing is basically what drives the market up and down because the market moves based on supply and demand and when the whole market stops demanding when there are only suppliers, the market tends to go down, on the other hand, when there is more demand than the suppliers, those demanding will get ready to give more money to get the available supply which drives the market up and that is what also brings the bull run.

The halving might help to reduce the upcoming circulating supply but the actual reason behind the bull market is what I explained above, people wait until the halving is near and they start buying around that time which pumps the market and it goes very high, and once it reaches the peak, everyone starts selling to take profit and no one wants to buy higher so the market starts to crash once again.