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When I say 'line,' I am referring to the spreads or handicap of a certain team in the game. Through my years of experience, I have noticed that putting effort into analyzing the team's statistics and other factors, such as news and rumors, does not significantly affect my chances of winning.

I got this belief now that bookmakers are already knowledgeable about these aspects, and they take them into consideration when establishing a betting line for a specific game.

How about you? Do you share the same perspective or not?

Definitely, odd makers specially coming from Las Vegas already knows what the opening line will be either ML or those handicaps. And that's why most of the time that odds are not that great because they know that the chance might be higher for us to win.

But as a gambler, that's where we take our risk, if odd makers says that X team, in case of basketball will win by this -1.5 for example. We might go and risk as base on our own analysis that X team can win by more than that points, so we might be looking at 1.7x or higher odd instead of the usual 1.6x or lower they are going to put up initially.

Technically analysis of the game will determine exactly if you will win or not, where the analyst of team start, it starts from the features and start checking the loophole of the team that contribute for their down fall or not, I don't know how you play your own game but I know that before you win any game as a good gambler you have to take your time to analysis the game before you can book any game because without analysing the game you will not have a strong belive that you are going win or not, a statistics is very important to me because of it what will give you that confidence to have a bold standing to confidently stake your game

in some sports and in certain time events, with the right training you can "scalp" by just looking at the odds and obtaining a high level of winnings.
This Is not a mistery since hundreds of players are doing daily as business option.

obviously it requires time and often also requires dedicated software but it is nothing really impossible to achieve.

I don't have a friend who is a bookie so I'm not really sure about this perspective (that bookies have very strong analytical skills and already know which team will win), I also really like betting on sports and have tried analyzing a match long before the match starts, but the final result I don't always get is a win, I also get a lot of losses. Some people also think that the bookie's chances of winning are much greater than the bettor's, well I don't think so either.
 

For sure, the bookies and the gambling sites will give you odds after seeing all these aspects of the sports and the game which is in question. If you are a regular gambler, you won't see that gamblers are being given higher odds for the teams that are likely to win. Similarly if a certain team is handicapped or less chance of winnings, then you will usually find higher odds for them.


I do not think that bookies will know who can win the match, they only play with probabilities, where the probability of a team is high to win, they will give us less odds for that and where the probability of a win is low, they will give more odds to us. We have to have a plan and bet on them using some money management techniques.

Betting lines and odds can be used also to determine who has more chances to win the match and it is more useful if someone does not have the idea of sports or team he or she is betting on.

That is true, I believe bookmakers are watchful about the likely outcomes of matches and what analysis cum options gamblers could go for.

Have we wondered why in some football games, some betting options are not available to be staked in that match? I'm beginning to reason that out too myself, probably they understand it could be a likely easy outcome and so they rather make it unavailable. Probably so, and gamblers have no option than go for other options without choice. This could be likely so, that bookmakers are really at work to read the minds of gamblers on likely outcomes of predictions.

Yes, I mean you can do that by luck and by analyzing the situation base on the players performance and most of all by intuition. I think I do agree on you for that, right now I'm into live betting rather than just betting before the game. Most of the time I'm into low odds and most of the time they tend to follow the plan I'm betting.

Bookmakers will be much smarter than us gamblers and they have working system for betting by giving odds according to the percentage of each team or player in the match that will take place, even bookmakers can always provide what makes us interested in the odd.
And that is why carrying out several analysis efforts using only news and rumors will never be successful and will only be in vain because the predictions that the analyst can have are only uncertain predictions.
At any time changes in the playing quality of each team or player will change but the bookmaker can know all this from the start and we as gamblers cannot be like bookies who can easily determine who will win.
Bookmakers are smart, they have such an advantage over us that no gambler can really win absolutely on sports betting except those who can really understand and have accurate predictions.

But gamblers can actually get an easier win, it just win with very low odd.
Moreover, for every sporting event or match, I sure there is intervention from the betting bookies where they will be able to direct the course of the match in determining each respective advantage.

Well although bookmakers are good, they're not perfect. You still have to analyze. Analyzing the details can give you that edge, that little extra insight and mixing your analysis with those betting lines might just be the winning combo.

But let's be real, there are no sure bets. Sports are unpredictable and even the best analysts can't guarantee a win every time. So while checking out those lines is smart just keep things fun.

I think it's a wrong perception to think that way, bookies aren't the house like a casino where they had games and you play against the house. Bookies more like a facilitator of our bets and bookmakers job are the making lines and odds that would attract even actions, but adjustments are always their as balancing is always the main goal.

Why balance the action? This is to ensure that bookies accept as maybe bets as they can so they can increase the juice they'll ba making.

For example, team A had +2.5 vs team B -2.5, both have odds of 1.90, so regardless on what team will win, bookies will always pocket 10% of the total bets from the winning bets.

This is my speciality in gambling, at least when I am fully prepared to bet to make money, sportsbook have been my thing.

The main point is for you to find the right sports that you fully understand, and look for the satisfactory odds as I don't just bet on sports too, I make sure that the odd makes sense and no matter how sure the game is for me, if the odds are not "something to write home about," I will never go for it.

After all, it's about money and risk must be involved. So, the risk is the higher odds that I go for because if the game is so sure for my option, they wouldn't have apportioned such an odd to it. I love 2.0 and above, but I can still do a little lower than that. On the contrary, I do not think that the bookies are powerful here, you just find the right odds for yourself, and if they beat the odds down (where they only have power since they can't rig it), it's your choice to go for it or not. As for me, I will look for the ones that would fool them so as for them not to beat the odds down. This has been helping me for long.

I also make sure that I play independent games in sports betting.

Also this is not like the bookies will win or lose based on the luck. They have the odds in place and in most cases, no matter which team wins or loses the bookies are in profit. Since bookies give less odds to the favourite team, so even if bookies have to give money to the gamblers, it is not that much because the odds are low.

Although it requires a little bit of math to understand, but being a bookie is a profitable business as compared to being a gambler. but not everyone can become a bookie because it needs a lot of initial capital which the ordinary gamblers do not possess.

Isn't that obvious?

Which bookmarker you'd find Manchester City is the favorite team if the match was against Luton Town, Sheffield United or Burnley? even the match was away, the eleven players were injured, Pep was sick or anything that makes other teams has an edge over Manchester City, all of them still not enough to become favorite.

Yep, that's how it is, odd makers, knows about it at the very onset, that's why they can put as low as certain favorites to be like 1.01x odds in some matches. And then you can see some as close like 1.8 to 1.9x odds.

But in any case you like to to against what the odd makers put because you know a thing about the sports that you are betting, then for sure you will have to with your instinct specially if the odds are very high and the odd makers are wrong about it.

Because these are two seperate things, bookies are pure business, while gamblers are clients/customers, and most of the time it's the bookies who make money reason why it's easy for them to expand. We should know our chances of winning, although we might assume that there's no house edge in sports betting, but mathematically, sportsbook are design to be profitable and bookmakers are ensuring it'll happen.



Few bookies, and lots of gamblers, that's the norm in sports gambling.

Replying this based on your title..
People do not  know what would comes after each an every game selections and even the winning itself is not defined because there are people who has been doing that and if it was that easy and possible there could have been a regular winners instead they minimal. What most casino or gambling site does is that they always makes it very difficult for people to win, I don't know if it their plans to manipulate games because from my little practice on game selection they ends up going the other way round.

I don't believe that analyzing betting lines alone is sufficient for consistent success, but I think it can be a valuable starting point when combined with other analytical approaches and a strategic mindset. These betting lines provided by bookmakers are not based on complete information or every detail about a team or game, so they're not perfect. That's why I don't rely solely on betting lines; I still conduct my own statistical and qualitative analysis. However, even after doing these, the element of luck is still present.

Thanks for your comment, it's true, but these betting lines are the percentage of most gamblers, that's why bookies set that to ensure a betting on both sides. It may not be the only thing to consider for you but personally I can already make a decision without checking the stats by just looking at the betting lines, because I believe that Bookies are not missing any information that could give its bettors and advantage to result a betting on one side only, at least most of the bettors.

I guess we have our own srategy but I tell you, experience will tell us what to do to make our job easy.

If we consider these things.

1-betting against the public
2- possible fixed game

These aren't thought or can be seen through stats but it's important to be aware of these.

In sports gambling, following analyses is great, until the game ends in a score contrary to our predictions. Some people follow a historical approach, but it's not 100% accurate. During the Arsenal and Luton town games, many people played Luton to win Arsenal, because they've read that, in the history of football, Arsenal never won Luton in Luton's home stadium. Along the line, it seemed like Luthon would win and they felt so happy, then in the last 1 minute Arsenal changed their predictions and they lost. The bookmakers also added more odds on Luton to win Arsenal. While it's good to analyze games, following the recent changes in the league is crucial. In the premier league for instance, instead of playing a particular team to win, it's better to bet on both teams to score. Or bet on more than 3 goals to be scored in the match.

Because smaller teams with low chances of winning, can defeat a big team with all the possible facilities needed to win; fit players and many consecutive wins. If you watched the Luton game, you'd notice that Arsenal almost lost the game. And the same thing had a tough time with Liverpool. Who would ever believe that Luton town would be a turn in the flesh of Arsenal fans and players that day? Analyses work but don't play a particular team to win another. Play based on the results you noticed within the past few games. Premier League games are easier to predict regarding goals predictions; goals, 4 goals to be scored, etc, but more difficult when we predict a particular team to win. Unless you won't watch the game, it makes me uncomfortable.

Not sure about that, but we also know that sports betting is not easy to just predict, because I also often experience losses even though I am sure I will win but it all still comes back to luck, this is not just how the bookie knows about these aspects because indeed they also want money and get their users' money, everyone knows about that, it's just that we as users still need analysis.

News and rumors or other things definitely have an influence because as people know, everything comes back to luck, everyone not only fully uses analysis and reads information about sports but is also lucky to win, always remember that professional bettors also experience losses, even though he is experienced in gambling in this sports betting. Just be confident and confident that we can win by analyzing it.

There are times you may not need to analyze. Example is when you know much about the league that you are selecting from. I like EPL and I watch many of their matches and know all what that are going on there, I do not need to analyze because I am knowing what is going on in the league and I know the right club to choose to either win or not. But you can not follow all leagues, and that makes you also right. Analysis is necessary before betting if it is sport betting.

Yes I think the same, we should be investing time to do research on the teams and matches we want to bet on. The odds from the bookmaker and the spread can give a good indication how popular a certain bet is. And in the end it always comes down to the quote we get from the bookmaker to determine if we should make a bet or not. Because just because there is a decent payout for a bet, doesn't mean it's likely we are going to win the bet. I would always try to gather as much as possible information before a match to make up my own mind and come up with a winning probability for my team. Then comparing my chance of winning to the odds the bookmaker offer. This of course means that we follow the sport we bet on regularly and have an advantage over other gamblers. Let's say I have no clue at all about the sport and still want to bet on it, then looking at the spread might be my only way to get some information. The problem is that without any additional information it doesn't really make sense to bet on a match, because it's just like rolling the dice.

No matter how perfect the analysis is, it does not guarantee that I will win my bet. The analysis I do can only increase the likelihood that I will win and increase my confidence in the bets I make. In doing sports betting, I believe that in addition to this bet relying on ability. but the luck factor also greatly influences it.

And when talking about the bookie, I believe that the bookie has predicted everything, they have paid attention and predicted what the final result will be. On the other hand, the bookie already has a system for how he can continue to benefit from his bettors. The bookie will take advantage of the difference in costs, because if we look further, each sports bet must have different odds or payouts.

Puttin effort into analyzing the teams statistics helps hugely. Years ago I had a thread on Bitcointalk where I was posting football (soccer) predictions - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1597716
In order to do a successful bet, you have to know a lot about each team. For example if there is a match between Barcelona and Real Madrid, you have to know whether the game is home or away, who plays, who is injured, which player has a good/bad season, how the goalscoring, how they performed in their last matches, how many goals they scored. You also have to consider what has happened in the past when these two teams were playing against each other. I was always checking these statistics. That was time-consuming but that was hugely helping me, the record of my bets proves that. You can see in my thread how successful my predictions were.

you're right but having your analysis will determine and give you a chance or possibility to win. When it comes to sport betting, Historical data is at best a guide if you have no idea about anything but you will never get reliable data for your bets. In that way, you can predict who will win base on both teams historical data.

The odds are actually the ones you'll be analyzing why the bookies set a specific handicap. These handicaps may look weird sometimes without you knowing that there might some changes in the rotation to a specific team, say for example in the NBA.
Bookies have more eyes and brain that has been analyzing games in daily basis, so it is expected that they are far more ready and knowledgeable than we are. No matter how familiar we are with a certain sport  we all still rely on our luck at the end of the game.

But how do you evaluate that luck factor to help you win in sports betting?

When we talk about analysis here, we follow those statistics available, and other factors we can consider to increae our chances, but damn, "luck thing", that's something we can't control,  so if we really are serious with sports betting, don't mentioned luck to be considerd as a factor to influence the outcome of our journey.


Just like us, they also are predicting, and that's where the odds are very created. This bookies doesn't have their own pick, it's the line that we are betting on, so we can't say book beat us or the other way around.

They do the match, the bookmakers actually and the odds they would set will always benefit the bookies. Are you familiar with line movement? Things like that usually happen when one side have heavy action and that bookmakers will have to adjust in order to attract bets on the other side. Bookmakers does provide pregame and live betting odds, so the bookies job are just their to operate, accept bets and pays those winning bets.

If you analyze a match, all you will notice is that the old of the team you think that would win the match will be very low to the odd of the club that you think will not lose. The odd alone can be discouraging. It is good to analyze a match to know if you should select it or. But we should also consider the odd. It is good to know that a club that have most chance to win a match can still disappoint you by losing or drawing the match.

odds can be easily to understand, when a team is a favorite, like odds below 1.90, they'll likely win the game, at least that's the stand point of the bookmakers who created the odds. However, the real challenge there is on the spreads, as you never know if the favorites would be able to cover the spread or not, they can win but they may fail to cover, that will result to a losing bet.

If you are gambling and you are particularly focus on the moneyline odds, I don't think this strategy would give you a winning record in the long run.

Analysis would be a huge help determining a winning bet, however nothing is guaranteed as well all know. However, it would be a huge help to determine a good bet. Analysis could simply be a huge help which team would be more advantageous over the other in particular with roster, league standing, and stats of players. Anything could happen within or during a game but a good analysis could be a huge lead to which team is more likely to win. Odds would as well help you decide which player or team is most likely to be victorious and i
this is already a part of analysis.

They are getting better and better. All of my greedy bets in sports cannot hit the right amount in the spreads. -4.5 and then the team I pick will win by just 4 points. Over 212.5 and then the total score is just 207-211. Sure, they are getting better at it and it's now harder to predict the game results. If you pick lesser spreads it will mean lesser profits and I don't like when it's just 1.40 below. 1.50 and above is what I prefer the most, going lower than that, I'd rather not bet for the game.
We spend time and effort analyzing the games and yet it's difficult to win it. I think they are getting wiser and worse they are the first to receive recent news about players' absence and other delicate news that can change the game widely. Some sports bettors prefer betting before the game but what if you are in a different timeline? That's another problem for those who want to bet early because they are asleep once the game starts.

Don't variables always get neglected or undervalued? Human behavior, especially in sports, is unpredictable. Bookies may consider team performance data and current events, but do they consider morale, player psychology, and situational stress? Though unlikely, these missed factors may marginally change the probabilities. Does sports betting become a game of chance if bookies are near-perfect analysts? No, I disagree. Why? Because betting is about finding value in the lines, not winning or losing. The smart bettor looks for those few times when the lines don't match the game. They play against the bookmaker and market opinion. Could this be a more sophisticated sports betting strategy that acknowledges bookmakers' skill while allowing for bettor insight?

Well, the reality is that you will never know what could happen if you don't decide to take a risk and try it your way. Not everything works for everyone, and what works for some people for others might not work...

So don't pay a lot of attention to what we have to say about this, whether it will work or not is up to you to discover. I can only wish you luck and my advice is to try it with some amount you can afford to lose, don't get in with everything you have, only that is important.

Analysis can provide an opportunity to win, but we must remember that in the match, there will definitely be elements of surprise that may be missed in our analysis. And that's what might lead us to defeat because this has happened to me several times. Maybe I felt that I wasn't very good at analyzing the match, so there was something I missed. However, having accurate sources of information can indeed provide the possibility of winning.

We can win in sports betting, but we have to be able to improve our analytical skills. And we can only continue to analyze every match that will take place and hope we win in sports betting.

Although skills are needed in sports betting, I do not guarantee the victory that will be obtained, analyzing does not mean that it will get an easy victory either. even though they can predict with certainty but in my opinion it will not be as perfect as their predictions. where there is still luck that has a role, because sports betting is also inseparable from luck. so no matter how good the analyzing skills a person has but it will end up with luck in the end.

Of course the bookie who has the role of the host will try everything to get a profitable victory for them.

By my understanding and just using just common sense, any profitable angle i come up with, i can pretty much be sure that someone else has tried, or is trying it as well, and bookmarkers are way ahead of us, as they must think every possible exploit and system to try to beat them. Because that's coming from their living hood if someone cracks the code of "infinity money making machine" via gambling.

You might get a slightly better edge with some specific info, you are familiar with, and it most likely affect your changes of winning, but those are most likely counted into the odds already.

The sports bet or casino games,both had win or loss in the gambling site.The difference in sports bet was the gamblers was used to bet on the odds of the other gamblers in sports bet.But the casino was purely based on the betting made by the individual gamblers.So the gamblers loss or win in the casino was based on the prediction made by the gambler.If the gamblers had their luck, the possibility of winning would be more likely happen in both sports betting and casino.The sports betting was based on the previous day news and rumours about the specific player.This leads to gambler will bet on news in the sports betting.

It depends on whether it is a collective or individual game, it is not the same that a situation affects a player on a football team (e.g.) as it does a tennis player.

Hence also that situation can be illness, divorce, death of a family member and a great etcetera.(1)

And, in the other side there are those types of situations are those related to the sport; victories, statistics, etc.

The second mentioned may be more linked to that aspect of probability which is still a formula or algorithm.

But the one referred to (1) can be far from that probability environment and then influence our decision.

It is relative, in any case point (1) is sometimes insider information that makes money.  That's why sports opinion programs exist, they are there minute by minute with the news.

In my opinion, bookmakers analyze them based on the data that is available to them and place odds or market that they think is fair for both sides (customers and bookmaker) but customers must do their own analysis, There are many cases in which bookmakers, when Asian, African and American teams play, place high odds on both teams that will play because they think it will be a balanced game, but for people from those countries who know those teams very well, they know well, they are the favorite teams and weak teams and the strong and weak points of those teams and people bet and win

I see sports betting as a fight between the bookmaker and the bettor, in this fight the one who has the most information about the game wins, that's why when I place a bet I don't see the odds value or who will be the favorite, first analyze the performance of the two teams and I choose which one I want to bet on because I believe they will win, then I go to the betting site to see what the odds value is for the team I want to bet on and if I see very low odds I give up on the bet, this is to prevent me from taking decisions based on what the bookmaker also decided

The odds says it all but I still prefer to analyze on my own and stay focus on my strategy and that includes analyzing the team and the players too though sometimes if I’m too busy and want to place a bet, I just rely on the odds and most of the time I won. Betting can still be risky, don’t ever forget to analyze and focus on your strategy, we know betting can be more rewarding if you bet correctly.

101%, usually I analysis the game after checking the odds not before.
The odds sometimes telling us what we dont know about the match. Sometimes I feel the odds maker already knew the results even before the match begins.

In theory, most games that involve two entities duking it out for a win, should at least yield you a 50/50 probability of winning every game, which means that no matter how you analyze the hell out of your games, you literally wouldn't be able to do anything if the games are laid out with that kind of parity. Which might be what you're experiencing, as well as millions of sports gambler in here like me. In any case, this doesn't mean you should stop analyzing your games and altogether just hope and pray that you're on the right 50/50 side this time, half the fun of playing on sportsbets is chipping in your own insights on stuff, keep that even if it's just for entertainment's sake. Don't worry much about if it would win you the game or not.

They are already long time in the business and if ever it is really just that feels that way then sure it is. They do already know on what are the things that puts them on advantage.
If it seems that they do really know on whats ahead then for sure they would really be always having the edge. In my case, i dont see for those news and other possible events
to be non relevant on which this is something that would really be so useful. It do really just happens that luck would really be always that relevant and always
be the main factor on which it would really be neither be a game to be a complete win or loss. This is gambling or betting, so its a matter of win or lose.

it's not an easy thing, right? Turning betting into an activity that can give us profits is not as easy as turning the palm of your hand. and even if we bet in the right way, it really cannot guarantee that every time we place a bet, we will get a win. Instead, we can only increase the possibility that we will win, and try to minimize the level of loss.

And indeed I also admit that there are some people who are quite good at placing bets and often in these bets they get quite big wins. But we need to know that to get big profits when placing bets, we also have to deposit large amounts of money. And are we really capable of losing large amounts of money? Because no matter how good we are at placing bets, there are still risks and losses.

Gambling is a psychological battle which only the most intelligent that is many times fast ahead of you will always win . True, by good analytical skills you can make a win especially with sports bets but that being said, bookmakers have taken an advantage of the analytical and history of the game to play smart ahead of the gambler by deceiving us with data's they only want  us to see and believe.

It therefore means data analysis isn't 100%  sure but can serve as a lead way to making the correct bet options in your bet predictions while using your own intellect too in decoding what from what could be a likelihood away from what is not, and in addition to luck.

To be honest, I don't know the mechanisms and ways in which betting companies design every option they present. However, because they are betting bookies, they will arrange it according to what they have adjusted. and I agree with one of the members who said, that the bookie will not know which team will win the match. where, they prioritize probability. and I completely agree with one of the opinions expressed by community members.

Referring to the first point you said, I will underline that in reality in gambling there is no such thing as significantly influencing the chances of winning. whatever it is, whether other gambling or sports or football. However, we really need the factors and variables that you mentioned, such as research, analysis, or anything else that we need to determine and decide on a match. and because of that, we can choose various options as you mentioned, for example handicap, Under/Over, 1×2, both teams to score and all other options.

And referring to my experience, balanced with understanding, experience, knowing the ins and outs of football. both patterns, systems, tactics, and all other factors, have a huge influence. but in any case, we leave the rest to the final result of the match. Well, if you are no longer sure, you have to dig deeper into the knowledge. Or, you can choose other bets besides sports.

that's why it is called gambling. though in sportsbetting, your chances are better if you are very familiar with the sports you are betting with. but let's take for example in NBA or basketball, a lot of bettors for sure are betting in other money lines like the over/under per quarter. and as you follow their game, you will likely have idea on where the game is heading to. hence, you can make a very good guess where they will be after each quarter. and that single match on this sports, you can already bet a lot. and would be very nice if you actually are a fan of that specific team as you have a good grasp of their capability inside the arena.

I don't understand. Is this almost equal to analyzing the odds themselves? Handicaps or spreads, after all, are basically for the purpose of somehow making a balance in the odds, to make them a bit closer or as if opposing teams or players have equal chances of winning. So is it like analyzing your bet's chance to win based on the winning probabilities of the teams or players?

But I don't understand why you suddenly talked of stats and factors such as news and rumors. Stats, of course, are a main basis for bookmakers. Rumors, I don't think so, but news could certainly affect the odds as well since it could carry information pertaining to something that would affect the player or team's performance or game.

Data analysis cannot be 100% accurate, but it can help people doing the analysis find the right team to bet on. They may need to learn more so they can improve their analytical skills and be even better. For this reason, those who frequently bet on sports must have good analytical skills so they can get accurate information, even if it could be more accurate because it will depend on the match. At least they can choose a team that has greater potential to win than the opposing team. By using correct analysis, they will get more information, especially if they can find sources that can provide more accurate information.

In my own opinion that gambling is all about luck whether it is sports betting and whatever others games all kind of gambling at the end of the day depend on luck. But in sports batting I believe that if a person good at analysing on sports for he gamble then it can be possible that is winning probability is more rather than those gambler who didn't know good analysis. So I believe that a gambler if do a good analysis then his winning probability will be more higher.

It's part of it I guess? It's definitely something bookmakers take into account when creating the odds since this forces an equal action between the two teams. It's also basically a figure of how strong a team is against the other really. This doesn't put statistics out of the picture though. It's still the basis of how people judge the strength of a team and I reckon bookmakers have different tools that they use to judge it from the current team setup, coach, past tournaments, age, etc.

If people were replaced by robots, much more accurate data can probably be obtained but since sports are played by humans, there's that factor of unexpectedness that guarantees that a match could go either way. You winning or losing is just part of the game imo after all, no matter what, it'd always be a 50/50 chance in the end.

How many people have this worked for so far? Many people who place bets on sports are also into the game very deeply, people around me can't do without football matches, this is like a cinema for them, but they still lose a lot of money, no amount of analysis can safe you from losing your money, it's impossible not to lose money in gambling, that's why you just have to accept that gambling is luck.

I am not encouraging anyone to start betting on sports if they don't know anything about the game, that's even worse, you need to know what you are betting your money on, a weak team is a weak team, if you don't know this and you blindly bet on such team you will lose your money, staying update is good but my point is losing in gambling is inevitable.

Become a pro fan of all football club in this world, know how is weak and who is strong, you will still lose your money, because anything is possible in this life, and someone can't always be the winner, that's why you will see some fighters in UFC win today and lose tomorrow.

Each of us have our own way on how we analyze the situation especially upon researching the statistics of the teams we are trying to place our bet and if you think your method is working for you then its truly fine since at the end of the day you satisfied yourself with the method you think successful for you. But for me or some people here we always check the team statistics,news and rumors what you called also the other factor that can truly affect the team play since this give us higher chance to win especially if we are keen to the details on each team.

But for sure nothing is accurate here since sometimes even if we think how good the odds or chance for sure every result that might came will be different since there are time that underdog team defeat those stronger teams that's why expect the unexpected thing to happen on our bets placed.

You are just one man, you are betting against the gambling industry which employs thousands of men making these calculations, using AI, nearly unlimited computing power. Of course your pen and paper calculations won't work against them. $700 billion industry we are talking about here. (according to google) If everybody was able to beat them like that then this industry wouldn't exist don't you agree?

If you want to win in the long term just get a job or start your own business and sell your services/products or whatever you have to offer.

LOL! So you are implying that it's not possible to win in sports betting consistently?

"Starting a business, selling services/products or whatever you have to offer" as what you have stated does not relate to gambling at all.

You can win in sports betting consistently if you use the strategies which are banned by the casinos. (EV betting and arbitrage betting) These strategies will indeed make you money if you use them properly. However, they are banned for a reason. The reason is, they make you win. If you are going to win all the time, how the fuck the casinos can make money? One of two has to lose money so the other can make it.

Long story short, If you make money from gambling in the long run, you will be violating the ToS of the casino. The ToS basically says, the player cannot make money for a long time. It is the casinos duty to make money. They are making the money by taking it from you.

If you stop using these strategies I mentioned, then you will have to depend on your luck but we already know that it won’t work because of mathematics.

The casinos are not in the money losing business. The players are.

If you want to make money, start a business.

I just want to be clear here because the title of the thread is all about sports betting.

Are you referring to sports betting?

By the way, Arbitrage betting isn't generally ban, it's only ban if you are betting on the same gambling site, but they can't forfeit or freeze your winning since it's not illegal. Shopping on different sites is probably okay as they would not be able to catch you since you are in the crypto space and we can use aliases when making an sports betting account that doesn't require a KYC. 

It helps but still just like any analysis, it does not give you guarantee to win at all. It is actually hard to bet with sportsbetting. Like I mean that you can easily bet because you either pick 1 or 2 but determining the winner is tricky because you do not hold the game. Your money's destiny depends on the players and teams that you are betting. For some reasons that you have dealt with some analysis and it didn't resulted to a good one. You are not a bad analyzer but it is that in sportsbetting is hard to win because even games that has high or low odds, they are still unpredictable to be honest.

The importance of data analysis in sports betting can't be over emphasized despite how much bookmakers attempt to influence and mislead us in the information we gathering. Like you said it depends on the gambler in finding the right team, for instance in the EPL we know those teams that are in great form and consistent performance this season.

And with that knowledge we can analyze what can possibly be the results of the game depending on which team they are playing against and the current form of their opponent and their weak loopholes and many others. When informations are gathered it becomes less confusing on what options the gambler should go for in the game.

They are definitely good analyzers when it comes to sports because they have to. If they want somehow a "fair" but profitable business, it should be done properly based on the stats that were made from previous matches. They probably have the tools to do that.

I think you can win just by betting lines but it would be hard. Luck plays a role IMO as well.

Data analysis helps, if you don't use them how will you know want to place bet on? It helps a lot in decisions making and it also increases the chance of your luck, but all in all, you have to be still lucky to win.

My answer is yes and a no, the yes is about how important data analysis is if you are betting on sports games, and my No is saying that even after every data analyses you can still lose your money in the end of the match.

The best bet is to never risk more than you are willing to lose, if you think about losing the money, which is possible, always make sure you won't get affected if that dream of losing money finally comes true, it always come true faster than winning, gamble responsibly.

You can win of course, the only question here is that if you have the luck to win without even analyzing the data.

The probability to win in sports betting are high compare to other games because you have the chance to analyze here and look for the previous data especially the previous games and the team history as well, but if you choose not to do this then expect to increase your chance to lose, and that can make gambling more risky.

Regarding betting issues in gambling, most games do not have clear data and that makes it impossible for gamblers to apply their analytical skills.
more exactly, they don't have any basis for analysis and gamblers just wander around making spiritual choices while casinos are the ones with data and analysis of how gamblers are choosing. But sports is not where the casino can interfere too much, the chart of strong and weak, it is very intuitive, what the casino does is just give reasonable betting odds, the parameters of sports gambling always show a higher winning angle for the gambler

The lines represent bookmakers' quotes, that is, they make their own forecasts for the event, but it would be wrong to place bets only on the basis of these quotes. Bookmakers determine the favorite and expect certain outcomes, but they are often wrong when sensations occur, and if it were so easy to bet and win just based on the bookmakers' lines, then bettors could easily win, but this does not happen.

Last year, you could look at the lower line and pick the range of 1.2 and 1.3 odds from any Basketball, either from the NCAA or NBA and you will win without even understanding anything from the League or the match because the algorithm works perfectly but I can count how many times I won Basketball this year, it doesn't seem to work again but you know something about sports betting, as long as the options are not straight options like straight win or draw from football matches, no matter how they twist the chances of winning, sometimes the scope of the match beats how the bookmakers think.

Last week, I made some random selections of over 1.5 goals from the Premier League features and some from other local leagues, the Premier League that I expected went smoothly, I had them over 1.5, now the local leagues I was afraid to give me over 1.5 were even printing over 4.5 and most of the goals from the previous matches were not consistent and weren't up to 3 but I was surprised to see that and I imagine if I have selected over 4.5 goals, my odd would have been bigger but the ticket was won and I was happy about my selections. Sometimes, the result just beats your expectations and that of the bookmakers and that's why they called it betting.

It should be taken into account that bookmakers can specifically indicate false quotes to deceive too gullible players, so you can not overly trust only one statistic. You need to trust more and your own intuition - without it is impossible to participate in gambling

I think it is true as OP said that bookies have stronger analytical skills to determine odds and we as bettors can only use our ability to analyze whose abilities are no better than bookies. Many gamblers experience losses in sports betting even though they have analyzed it, including you. who often experience defeat, if the bookie does not have the ability to analyze the bookie will certainly experience a lot of losses, they place odds, not just any odds, but odds that they think are right, we as bettors cannot beat the bookie, even though the chance of winning in sports betting is always there, we cannot beat bookie significantly.

You're right that they do analyze it, but also other gamblers do that. Let's say you have 10 people betting on a boxing match and 8 of them try to do some work and check what pros like coaches, commentators and other boxers say about the fight and who according to them is favoured. Most of them will bet on the one that's more likely to win, up until there's huge money to be won if you bet against him, in which case people will start to balance it out, betting against the favored fighter. In the end, you'll clearly see the favored player and also be unable to make too much by betting against him.
Most of the time you can simply choose if you want to swim with or against the current depending on how you feel about the match and you don't have to analyze anything. 

if we are talking about the favorite fighter, the bettors will more likely to bet on them and the risk taker will choose the winning by method or which round the fight ends to which is where they will analyze the most.

some of us don't bother analyzing when there is a huge gap between fighters' skills where the underdog is pretty much unknown and 90% chance he could just fall to the ground with a jab.

. basically my passion in watching football has depreciated due to some personal reasons but yet I still love gambling on the sport bets such as one of the footballs.
So I have really lost most of the teams capacities and their formation lines in the games. So to make an reliable bet giving hopes that I know what I am doing during my prediction, I goes through researches in the magazines so to understand the teams historical performance and then I could be inspired with some analogical analysis to make my prediction.
Gambling is a game of luck no matter how the outputs of being an experience or a professional may be diluted with the privileges to win in the gamble.
So yeah. Sometimes times it fails me to loose and sometimes it gains me to win.

Most of us probably analyze the betting lines but we cannot deny that most of us also are losers when it comes to sports betting.

Just make it simple, since most are losers, that means they aren't doing the right thing, and most of the time the reason why they losses is due to lack of focus and discipline. For example, a gambler could win 7 out of 10 bets, that's 70% win rate, right? However, if some bettor doesn't have the discipline, he'll like double when he losses, what if he won the first 7 and losses the 3 but since he doubled or chase his losses, he ends up losing everything.

That's 70% win rate and still lose, that's insane, right?

True. It's not a guarantee.
Sports betting is not like casino games which large part depends on luck. In sports betting, it is combined luck and analysis and I think most sports bettors know that fact.
If one gambler aims for player props he will understand the difficult part of it. There you cannot just rely upon the odds given by the sports bookies, you must know if a player's stats do hit the amount that is being given in the betting line. Most of the time their average stats give out 1.20 - 1.30 only and there's no assurance with that yet. Other sports bettors like to reduce that so there's a higher guarantee to win. Let's say a player can make 10 points per game based on his stats, they will reduce that to 9 or 8 with only a 1.10 - 1.15 win. Then, the plan is to combine it with another player with the same strategy of reducing the stats. A same-game parlay can sometimes be profitable if we ain't that greedy but for those who like winning big, they will make it longer or take the higher risk by adding more stats for higher odds.
It will depend on how a gambler likes it or if he is a risk taker or loves to stay in the safest route.

Well, yes, I don't think anyone didn't analyse who would win. Like what we are doing, if we see the match, we can distinguish who has the advantage based on how familiar we are with the team. For example, in the NBA, if you are a fan of the NBA, you mostly know the teams—the strong ones and the weak ones—so you know if there's a match that will have a higher chance of winning. So analysis is very important in sports betting if you want to have higher chances of winning, but for some others who don't rely on analysis or don't want to analyse because they don't have time and rely only on intuition, they are most likely to have a higher rate of losses. So analysis is very important in gambling. Even if you are more reliant on luck and your knowledge, you still need to analyse before deciding whether to bet.

Of course, bookies definitely have good analytical skills to provide choice options for us gamblers. In sports betting, there are many types of options that we will bet on, starting from single bets, double chance, multi bets, special bets, score predictions and so on. each has a different chance of winning so that it makes the gamblers confused about placing their bets so that the chances of the gamblers winning are smaller and the profit is based on what they choose, it is difficult to beat the bookie because they have more accurate analytical skills. I even thought that betting Sports have been arranged in such a way as to frustrate gamblers who bet on teams that they choose a lot because sometimes when I make a multi bet which I think is correct there is always a team that makes a blunder and thwarts my bet :(

Yes, analysis is important, but sometimes the match results still don't match our analysis. especially if you only look at the more popular teams and also the chances of winning without considering the squad which might be left behind by several main players due to injury or card accumulation.
Of course, you have seen teams whose quality of play and standings are far below and when they face a better team they can hold a draw or even win. things like that are beyond the predictions and analysis that we do. but that often happens in football betting.

Sometimes too apart from the injury on the bench, the injury that may come during play can also spoil the already good plan we have on the game. For example if a very good player like top striker that team depends on that we also hope on in our analysis for him to score some goals is substituted for the reason of injury, that can be devastated to any team. A top player many times is not compared to a bench warmer or some one not regular. The point therefore is the quality of play can be reduced due to injury that can be sustained at the time of the match.

In a way, you can do that, but that means you will blindly trust what was served in front of you and not do anything on your end to analyze who you'll be betting with. Though the lines offered by bookies really are the odds of a team to win as observed by other bookies, there are still some minor details that can really help you make a decision on who to bet. Injuries sometimes are not taken into account last minute by bookies, and the only way to know that is to do a little bit of research before locking in your bets. That can make or break a team's game, and you wouldn't know that info based on odds alone.

Yes, gamblers face stacked odds. We wager on sports with hope and strategy, but the bookies' powerful analytics give them the edge. They offer single, multi, and special bets. The dangers and rewards of each approach vary. We walk cautiously but often reach a crossroads.

Brief story: I knew a gambler who thought he had solved the code, like many of us. He carefully chose his multi-bet. One team mistake doomed his castle of cards. Bookies use their analytical skills to manipulate the odds.

This illustrates a key healthy gambling lesson: accepting the risks. Play responsibly, not only to defeat the bookie. The house usually wins this high-stakes game.

All bookmakers understand well and working as system with faster update for giving odds in sport betting, not only before match begin but also they are updating when match have start and score update for change with odd given for gambler. Some time small odds not guarantee easily for winning match and specially I am sport betting addict saw many unpredictable result matches happen although have choose favorite team and make research by looking their several matches performance before.

Some time after reading all statistic teams and based on my opinion is favorite but can't predictable with the match result have loss our bet in sport betting, many technical needed and be careful when making bet on sport betting, check odd comparison from bookmaker and looks the current teams condition are full teams or not before match begin.

Match injuries are like unforeseen storms on a well-planned cruise. Fans and experts regularly gamble and hope on crucial players, right? Imagine a top striker, the team's linchpin, being injured and pulling out, throwing our strategy and analysis off. The team's rhythm, expected scoreline, and morale all change instantly. Isn't sports' unpredictability beautiful? Unpredictability is both exciting and terrifying in sports betting. A bench player replacing a star is a fresh chapter in the game's tale. They can surprise by improving or degrading the team's play. However, doesn't unpredictability make sports betting more interesting? This is what we love about betting—analyzing, predicting, and occasionally being surprised. Isn't uncertainty what keeps us hooked?

I believe it is possible to win in sports betting based on your own skills if you have enough knowledge about sports and if you can research sports regularly. While other casino or gambling games rely heavily on luck, this type of gambling usually relies heavily on skill. Before playing this type of gambling, a bettor must have an idea about the various teams based on the sport, how the team will perform, how the past statistics of the team are, or which team is performing well and poorly at home and away, to make a decision. If one wants to bet on cricket football game then one should know well about cricket and football and try to find out the strengths and weaknesses of each team then the chances of winning the bet will be higher.

At least with data analysis, a gambler can find out many things from the information he collects so that he can decide which team to choose. He can also look at the information for the next match so he has an idea of which team can win over the other team. But to win sports betting, we have to be able to have many things so we can increase our chances of winning.

We can also predict whether, later in the match, there will be surprises from each team so that it can change the course of the match. By having more information, we can find out which teams have a chance to win so we can choose them as bets. But we also have to remember the amount of money to bet because we shouldn't use too much money if we are not prepared for losses that can come at any time.

Well for me, the old fashioned way of analyzing every team in a specific sport is still working. I used it with the fight between Magsayo against Avela on boxing and it still works perfectly fine. Though I was not able to place my bet on it but still a win win situation for me.

I believe it is possible to win in sports betting by analyzing betting lines. We can observe when the game between the two teams will be seen by placing the odds between the two teams on the betting platform. The team that is stronger has the lower odds. For example Bangladesh vs India match odds will be 1.5: 5.6. From here it is very predictable which team will win the match. We know of course that India is stronger and more likely to win than Bangladesh. If a man can analyze the batting line then surely he will understand and bet for India. From here I can say that if you analyze the betting line, you can definitely win the bet.

The favorite team wins in most of the time and thats where a gambler can make some wins. There is no assurance  to make profit however as they could also lose especially on sports like soccer, the tide can turn quickly where the underdog can win.

In boxing, its always the favorite boxer who wins, its the odds that is not making a bettor a big profit.

Its frustrating when after spending time doing our research drawing information about the current form of the team we are to bet in favour and contrasting against the form of it's opponent and all analysis proves that your favourite team is in great position to thrust in a sweeping win in the game, only later for things to change in the course of the game disorganizing all the supposed outcome of the analysis given. Apart from injuries a key player of the team can be awarded a red card due to a dangerous tackling of his opponent and this can change the formation and early strategy of the team moving from an attacking formation to a defensive one reducing all chances of scoring and winning that match against their opponent that are a complete X1 man.

boxing still very dificult sport betting analyse, ussualy the big name always win, but boxing promotion and the big boss boxing gambler is easy manipulate match.
so how you can analyse boxing match

After watching how Tyson Fury won against Ngannou who really beat him, I have to admit that it's really hard to bet on boxing match because without knockouts, judges can vote for anyone they wish. UFC is also very unpredictable too, one moment you see Alex Pereira beating Israel Adesanya, then Adesanya knocking him out, out of nowhere. Conor Vs Jose Aldo was also very unexpected. Fighting is very unexpected unless it's a match of Khabib or Jon Jones. I don't watch boxing, so can't talk about that.
To be honest, I think that analyzing helps when you beat on team matches, on games like football, basketball, hockey, NFL, Rugby and so on.

Yea, talking about surprises they are inevitable in the game of sports we can't overlook that point only that it's not in our control to when and how these surprises should happen. Another stuff that defeats our analysis of a game about the possibility of the results is hard-luck, when a team is experiencing hard luck in a match they can play all they know how to with every skills and tactics they possess but

 still won't be able to score a goal to win the games, a common experience in football games is where you be seeing a lot of shots hitting wood/bar and the game ending in draw eliminating your prediction of a winning outcome in the game. Another is injury in the course of the match but I don't want to stress on that right now.

There will be surprises in sporting events and we won't know when they will happen. Maybe today there won't be any surprises but who can guarantee that tomorrow there won't be any surprises either? Each team wants to win against its opponents, so there is a tendency for them to hide some of their tactics, players or other things from the public so that they can surprise the opposing team and also the audience.

If we can estimate what surprises the leading team or the opposing team can provide, we can adjust the bet. We may choose the opposing team over our favorite team because we see the opposing team as superior to our favorite team. That is why we must be able to analyze well and find accurate information before we bet.

It is even baseless for someone to say they would want to be betting based on the odds provided by the bookmakers, it's not professional and could mostly misleading. Honestly, I had thought of this many times and I have had discussions about it among friends as well, but in the end, we realized that it would amount to cowardice and the person misleading himself in gambling. The best is to learn how to follow the teams and games of choice and know how to use what you know to bet rightly. This will give you pride and assurance in what you are doing and not introduce what I term "gambling in gambling." That's the way I see it. The person who would see the odds of teams and would just use it to bet without any analysis is actually gambling on that particular bet, such will continue to rely on the bookmaker's resolve which might be their defeat.

Just take for instance the match between Girona and Barcelona lately, all the sportsbooks I know gave Girona a high odd and gave Barcelona a discouraging odd. This happened despite that I knew that Girona would win, and not only that, all analysis by unbiased experts must be pointing to that fact too. So why give Girona the huge odds? Let me say that even the bookies played on the intelligence of bettors and those who follow this kind of line stuff to wager will definitely lose painfully. But most times, one can still have a good betting through the odds reading if done rightly. As in most cases, the weak teams get the high odds and the strong teams get the low odds. Still, even if anyone would use this approach, it should be used in addition to their own analysis. If done well, it could be other means to better filter their decision before finally picking a side.

Usually if we bet on sports betting before or a few days before the game in order to get good odds we never know the name of the player their coach will field, that's why sometimes the annoying thing is when a favorite team that we have bet on all turns out to only lower the second tier players make the team worse than imagined, it is difficult to guess even though we can analyze it because the favorite team can lose to a team from the bottom of the board and that happens very often.

But to avoid that, people usually prefer to bet a few minutes before the match or bet directly while the match is in progress so they know which players will be fielded and at the same time look at the opposing team including seeing the strength of both, even though we are good at analyzing it still comes back to luck because without that it will be difficult to win.

But at least we can find out the approximate names of the players that the coach will field from the analysis or data that we obtained previously. And that can be an estimate for us to place a bet by choosing the team that can win. And that also includes the surprise factor that we won't know until the game starts. But those of us who already have data from previous matches can estimate which team we can choose so that we won't have difficulty choosing the team.

Yes, some people place bets before the match starts. But they should do an analysis first so they have the basics about selecting their team. If later there is the latest data released by each team, we have to make adjustments to the selection of teams to bet on. This requires experience in order to determine the team because even if one team is favoured, it will not always win, especially if there is a surprise factor that the other team will provide.

It's a nuanced conversation, isn't it? While odds might provide insight into the bookies' thinking, they are not perfect. More so than the true strengths and shortcomings of the participating teams, they represent public opinion. This is where your point about doing one's homework shines! Gaining knowledge about the teams, their past results, injuries, and even the weather can significantly change the betting environment. It's not about chance; it's about being astute and knowledgeable

But let's not dismiss the odds entirely. When paired with in-depth personal analysis, they can be a helpful tool. Odds can reveal features we might miss or reveal underlying currents in public opinion. For example, in the match you highlighted between Girona and Barcelona, the odds were probably influenced more by Barcelona's history than by their present performance. Here, a wise bettor looks past the obvious and explores the true forces at work. Isn't it all about finding balance? referring to the odds rather than the gospel as a guide. Combining logical, hard facts with the frequently unexpected nature of sports is the art of prudent betting

Betting lines means you don't look at the statistics anymore?

Well, it's hard to tell as personally I haven't done that myself. Maybe it will work for some using their experience in sports betting but most of us probably are not doing that. As we continuesly gamble on sports, we try to experiment on different method to win, but the harsh truth is that until now, we haven't found the right method to win consistently.

We may win, but it's only for short term wins, actually many can do that but few are only capable of winning long term.

Yes gambling has no permanent winning strategy. The strategy that gives you winning today might become so disappointing to you the next time and that is because it is luck base. We don't have to put all into gambling to avoid breakdown of emotions like we have some stories of gamblers committing suicide because of losing his money. Analysis and predictions do fail but many people don't look at that, they so rely on what they have analysed thinking it must have to go their own way and they bet so hugely but winning is always short term because the house edge works against the player.

Gambling is primarily luck-based, the element of chance plays a significant role in determining results that makes it challenging to develop a permanent winning strategy. Gamblers need to exercise caution and avoid investing more than they can afford to lose. The emotional toll of significant losses can be intense that can lead to serious consequences that has been evidenced by stories of gamblers facing financial ruin and other tragic suffers.

Analyzing and predicting chances to win in gambling can be deceptive, because prepared strategies may fail due to the unpredictable nature of gambling. The reality appears that luck remains a significant factor in determining results, despite the efforts being done by gamblers to analyze and make informed decisions. Acknowledging the lack of a permanent winning strategy, understanding the role of luck, and adopting responsible gambling practices are essential for anyone engaging in gambling activities.

Well, one of the things I can say about this is that I see sports bets as much more feasible to win, because it is one of the ways you can win by having a good analysis of the games, of course, there are those in the world. sports experts are the ones who analyze each thing, each player and the players' scheme in their tactics, in their strategies, I would say that it is much easier to win in sports betting than in the same games that are roulette, slots, because If everything is based on luck, strategies can also be applied, but things can work or they cannot work, I would believe that when things are tried to be done better, obviously they look for ways to win, it is obvious, it is In our nature we always seek to win, I could think that in each game we can apply strategies and those strategies are what we should do if we believe in them, personally, I do believe in strategies.

When emphasis is placed on the things that we must accept, it is that in the game, internal games are difficult to win, in sports betting you can do analysis or things that we have always done to get a good analysis, the case From the analysis we can get a lot, in the articles, in all kinds of things that have to do with making a better approach towards the depth of the sport, that is why I compare it with trading, because it depends a lot on what we think. , and according to what we think, what we decide is that you win or lose, obviously if you lose it is because our analysis was never correct and that many things must be corrected, it is normal, that is why we have to do things well measures, sometimes it is difficult because if we mix feelings it is hard to bet, because money will be lost, and the least we want is that, we must always insure our money.

In my opinion, there is no good and consistent strategy or analysis in sports betting, because everything is a factor of luck and analysis can only improve the quality of our knowledge in sports and bring little chance of winning. However, that doesn't mean that every analysis you get will always win.

Because no matter how good the analysis is, sometimes it doesn't match expectations because anything can happen in the field. It is difficult to achieve consistent success in sports betting, and there is no foolproof strategy and analysis that guarantees consistent winning because luck is a factor.

This is what makes bettors not place bets before the team they are betting on plays, if they bet when the game is still far away, this will cause losses, there are still changes in the composition of players, there are still changes in odds at any time from the casino bookie, no one can do it guess which players will be fielded if the match has not yet taken place, but we can first analyze the players who are injured so that we can confirm whether the player will be absent for several matches.

Of course, bettors prefer to bet when they know which players the coach will field before the match starts. This can minimize losses. Indeed, this alone is not enough to win because defeat can still happen even though we have used skills, but at least with this can increase your knowledge and experience in the field of sports betting and strengthen your skills to bet carefully and not carelessly.

There's no assurance that any bet will win, that's true. But, it only needs a bit of luck, I mean it's not really a big factor. Sports is a talent-based game, there are players who are really good at what they do so it enhances the chance of winning if they are part of the team that you are betting for. The only problem that I could see is if there are spreads that need to be guessed.
In basketball, there are heavy favorites that need to win by 10+ points just so we could get at least 1.60 - 1.80 in profits. That's where it gets messed up because sometimes the underdogs are fighting back trying to prove that they can win games so spreads like -10 are sometimes not covered although the favorite team will win. But, picking the win-only bet is not that profitable. Most of the time it's 1.10 - 1.20 only. High-risk gamblers would not accept this kind of bet thinking it's a waste, they'd rather take the spreads and see if it will be covered. That's where luck comes in. Analysis of which team will win the game and a bit of luck to cover the spread or take the lowest profits and just be satisfied with it.
Anyway, there are a broad of choices to bet on now in any sport. Boxing doesn't only have picking the boxer who will win, you can also guess the round on when it can end. I think that's cool for those who really love their preferred sport. Having more options is better so they won't be forced to choose on one pick only.

When you believe that everything is all about luck, then there's no reason to analyze the game as what we work hard would still be useless.

Perhaps try to change your perspective in sports betting as it's not the same as the games with a house edge, here there's a real chance that we will succeed as a sports bettor, and although some may so negative about the word "succeed" in sports betting, if you believe on it, nothing will stop you.

I'm sure you've search search some strategies that could help you win, there are lots of videos in youtube, and even you can find some testimonies from people who claim they are making money in sports betting, so if those interest you, you wouldn't say that sports betting is just all about luck.