Bitcoin Forum

Supposedly we've only got a week until many people think the SEC will accept the first Bitcoin ETFs.

Do you think it'll actually happen? Or do you think it's just been a bunch of 'hopium' and the SEC is just gonna reject all the ETFs same as they've been doing for the past 5 years?



It seems like the SEC has actually been engaging in talks about ETFs with various interested parties so it at least does seem like for the first time the SEC is actually considering the possibility of accepting ETFs. But at the same time the head of the SEC, Gensler, is well known as a Bitcoin hater and he wants to see the entire industry destroyed in America. But the one thing Bitcoin ETFs have going for them despite Gensler opposition to Bitcoin is that Gensler and the SEC has come under increasing pressure from Congress and the courts to stop denying ETFs and stop standing in the way of the industry.

To me, it could go either way. Maybe Gensler stands firm in his opposition to Bitcoin and the crypto industry (though if he does he has gotta know the political and legal pressure on him is going to get a lot worse), or maybe he has been feeling enough pressure last year to just say the hell with it and allow an ETF despite his personal vendetta against Bitcoin.

What do you think? Are we just days away from Bitcoin ETFs getting accepted or is the whole market about to be in for a huge disappointment?

I think it's going to get approved. I don't know if it's going to be this week (most likely not) or the next, but it's going to happen.
Personally, I don't bet on this. I don't have any leveraged positions and I haven't bought any bitcoin last month. I have more than enough to sleep on for another year, waiting for the bull market. I don't care if it comes because the ETF, or despite it.

There's a number of things that scream it's going to get approved, starting with the Blackrock's approval rate, which is 98 or 99% and ending with the SEC asking applicants to change their redemption mechanisms from in-kind to cash. These are final adjustments which you don't discuss unless there's strong grounds for approval.

I'm pretty sure that there will be a Bitcoin ETF eventually but I wouldn't hold my breath for it happening within the next few days or weeks. After all the SEC has gotten pretty good at drowning all approaches in red tape so far and I have my doubts that they are out of red tape just yet.

In the end they'd just kick the can down the road though, so while a rejection may result in some short term volatility I wouldn't worry much about the long term.

Yeah the fact that SEC has actually been meeting with and discussing the ETF with the participants and financial exchanges and whatnot in recent weeks makes me think that it may actually happen. I didn't get onboard with everyone else last year just because Blackrock put in an application, but when SEC started losing their court cases I was like okay maaaaybe that'll be enough pressure to force Gensler's hand against his own will but at that point I was thinking like 5% chance of approval, up from 0%. But now it does seem like SEC in recent weeks is actually discussing it to get everything ready for an approval and not just waiting for the deadline to reject everything as they normally do. So now in my mind it's gone from like 5% possibility to higher than 50% at this point, but I still wouldn't be remotely surprised if they reject everything, but it does seem like its leaning towards acceptance at the moment.

Since when SEC saw that after many rejections of the Bitcoin ETFs and the market is still performing well, they will look for a way to manipulate the market. Every of their move now will definitely shake the market and investors will be looking out on their stand on this Bitcoin ETF. I have some conviction that they also want to become amongst the main determinants for the market and give directions to where the market will go. I just don’t really like the spot Bitcoin ETF because it has caused too many uncertainties for the market and everyone is at the brink of what step to take next.

I'm going with a yes?

This is the I am looking at it...

The SEC have been consulting with the applicants and have allowed them to make changes
to the applications, in other words guiding them along the path which the SEC maps out.

The largest asset management company - Blackrock have an application in as do all the other
top asset managers, if they cant get it approved it will never be approved.

Regardless of the scenario, the interest in bitcoin will be great. I believe the ETF will be approved, but I also speculate about it being rejected. This scenario cannot be ruled out because the nature of the SEC's mission is to regulate it. Managing the US stock market where the stock market is the "Barometer" of the economy, "Ensuring" "Protecting" "Stabilizing" the "Capital" market is the top task of the SEC.

The macroeconomic situation shows that the US economy is still able to withstand the FED's large interest rate increases, but the number of bankrupt businesses has increased, if you look at the difference in the yield curve of US Treasury bonds. 10 years and 3 months, we can see that the probability of a recession within the next 12 months is 61%. I know that historically, the yield curve has been a reliable indicator of economic recessions, calculated based on a New York Fed model that uses data from 1959-2009. Therefore, even if the FED adjusts interest rates in the next 2 quarters, capital flow priority will also be given to large businesses, so approve BTC ETF and deployment in 2024 is also unlikely, although the interest is huge.

Imo, not to mention the fluctuations with large amplitude and lack of control (the US government's BTC reserves are only ~ 300k and are being sold), the value of BTC will be a factor causing manipulation of the US capital market. So imo, BTC ETF is unlikely to be approved at this time, let's wait and see the verdict in the next few days.

Every Bitcoiner must hope that Bitcoin ETF will be accepted. However, we don't know whether it really will be accepted or not. I think there are 3 possibilities, it can be accepted or delayed or rejected. I'm not sure it will be accepted in the near future, I assume it will be delayed/postponed. SEC probably needs more time to consider the right decision to make.

Well, I don't know why people are too thinking about Bitcoin ETF. I think we must focus on Bitcoin halving, it must happen. Bitcoin ETF is just another factor to support the bullish day of Bitcoin. I think it won't influence much for the bullrun season.

I think it's a yes but the question is when it will be and that I don't know of. Let's just hope that sec will approve the ETF and won't reject it. In my opinion, J think there's also a chance that it will get rejected. We'll see what will happen in the future if it's going to be accepted or rejected. What we can do now is to speculate about ETF's rejection and acceptance. It would bea great news for us if if it's really get accepted especially if it's sooner or later.

It would fit our current narrative that we are heading for the moon, or at least ATH, and this would be just a rocket fuel for it.
Personally i am skeptical as i have seen this so many times before, but i wouldn't want to be and i wish i was wrong and that it gets accepted. But i can totally see a scenario where it won't get passed and bitcoin just keeps on moving up, like it didn't care at all. It's not like this would have affected too much before. So i don't see not accepting being anything huge. Accepting on the other hand would launch it for sure

They will definitely be approved, but I think it will only be in a few months. I read news of a report that said that the SEC was going to deny all ETF applications, this even caused the price of bitcoin to return to 40.7k USD. Everything for now is just speculation, the SEC will sooner or later have to give in.

Despite the noise and the FOMO and the hype, I think it's 50:50. It could be a yes or a no. Although I want the SEC's decision to be positive and see how the market reacts, that it would once again reject the applications is a probability. The SEC might reject the applications for now pending further preparations and polishing of policies and safeguards which pave the way for an eventual approval. A spot Bitcoin ETF in the US is still a matter of when, of course, but the SEC might simply say it's still premature for now. There's much more cleaning to be done.

I am not a lawyer and don't know about laws in the USA. especially for Bitcoin Spot ETF and how long SEC. can delay it. It seem they are going to a deadline to announce their decision, Yes or No. However, is there any chance for SEC. to postpone it again with somewhat reason they can use?

I don't know, again about laws but if SEC. do another postpone, I really think they will delay it after the Bitcoin halving or worse, after the 2024 USA. President Election. If some big changes in SEC. board members after the 2024 President Election, I expect to see Bitcoin Spot ETF approvals after that because it must be 3 yes votes from SEC board members to approve those applications. Now we have 2 - 2, and the decisive vote is on the hands of Gensler, he votes No, very likely.

I don't know because I'm really not an expert in this stuff, but the institutional peeps I follow on Twitter are like 90% certain that it'll be approved this month. With the remaining 10% mostly being a postponement rather than a hard denial. So yea, pretty confident, but won't be disappointed if we get a different result.

Just a few hours ago, we saw the prices of cryptocurrencies go down as high as 10%. We've seen the price of Bitcoin go down from $45,000 to nearly $40,000. I don't know the main reason for this. Maybe it's just a normal price correction after weeks of going up in price. Maybe it's because of the genesis block (for sure this is not, but...). I don't know if this one is as well, but I think this affects the price of Bitcoin.

I saw an article from Cointelegraph saying that we might not see Spot Bitcoin ETFs getting accepted because SEC Chair Gary Gensler doesn't want crypto in the US. LINK (https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/01/03/bitcoin-spot-etf-proposals-to-be-rejected-by-sec-matrixport/)
TBH, I don't usually read articles online, but for this one, I'm a bit curious about it, and knowing that Gary Gensler is a hater of crypto (at least that's how we see him), there's a chance that we might see an opposite result, and we might not see Spot Bitcoin ETFs getting accepted.

Gary Gensler is acting like he's the main antagonist in one movie, eh? :D I'm hoping that somehow, there will be at least one or more ETFs that will get approved, but I will not be surprised anymore if the worst thing happens, and no one gets accepted.

We are not experts in matters related to the ETF and we do not have access to exclusive news or private information. Therefore, all the speculation we have may not be true, but rather reflect the fears of some or the hopes of others, but if you are an investor, it is best to think about the possibility of rejection and plan your investments accordingly. If approval occurs, it will be I won, and if I did not win, I reduced the impact of the losses.

Last rumor despite true or not they will announce on January 10 will announce about Bitcoin ETF accepted bitcoin or not but still can't guarantee SEC will announce as soon possible because they will try keep delay it. Dilemma if ETF not announce yet they will approve or not because take advantage by many community or whale to make bad news and bitcoin potential drop drastically again. Hope for bitcoin holder don't panic with fake news and bad possibilities in the future if ETF not approved bitcoin because is not the end era of bitcoin have large community holder.

Actually hope ETF will approve bitcoin as soon possible and make investor keep confidence holding their bitcoin fund until raise higher price left few months later will be halving time.

I do believe that an ETF will be approved this month. Most likely we’ll see an approval on January 10th, but nothing is set in stone. Who knows, maybe some insiders want to try their hand at insider trading Bitcoin before an approval is made. I would imagine if no approval is seen on January 10th we will get a selloff, which may be why we’re seeing some profit taking recently.

We did have some drop recently which these articles been published out on media outlets

Bitcoin Spot ETF Proposals to Be Rejected by SEC: Matrixport Source (https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/01/03/bitcoin-spot-etf-proposals-to-be-rejected-by-sec-matrixport/)
SEC will reject all Bitcoin ETFs in January, says MatrixportSource (https://crypto.news/sec-will-reject-all-bitcoin-etfs-in-january-says-matrixport/)

Bitcoin price plummets but eventually backed up. A purely non obvious manipulation as always.  ;D
I wont be surprised if there would be those sudden news or announcement about approval as they had already placed
themselves at the bottom.

What is scary is how 80% think it will be approved this month. This is getting to the point where everyone expects it to be approved and usually when the herd is going one way the opposite happens.

Reminds me of 2017, people were 99% it would be approved and instead it was rejected and we had a nasty spike down. But the remainder of the year was still bullish when bitcoin broke $1K all the way to $20K.

I think the BlackRock ETF application has a high chance to be approved, because they had multiple opportunities to review and also to correct their mistakes. The SEC has to have solid reasons not to approve it and they will have to be ready to defend it... if it is not approved.

The decision is more based on political agendas for the upcoming elections, so it can go both ways, depending on who is supporting it.

Since last year we have been expecting that ETF will be approved. But as the time approaches, there are various reactions to it. Although no official announcement has come but it could come soon. The SEC made an announcement last year in which they will reveal about ETF approval but as things stand, it looks like it could take much longer. That means the official announcement may be delayed further. But since there is doubt here, we should take more time. Although many investors are prepared, they are looking at SEC. But there are some risk takers who think that ETFs will be approved.

I'm sure that the final decision will be this month. Don't know if it will be approved or not, but most likely it will. Will be interesting to see how BTC and the world will react.

Here, you've made some thought-provoking insights. True, Blackrock has a high approval rate for exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and the SEC's proposal to modify the redemption process may be a good indication. But it's also critical to remember that other elements, like market dynamics and regulatory issues, might have an impact on the choice to approve.

All 14 applicants have no technical plans to prove the Bitcoin underlying their ETFs

Based on this fact, I have three ideas:
- The SEC will use this as a reason to yet again, deny the applications.
- The SEC will approve the applications, though require a proof system to be established.
- The SEC will approve the applications...Bitcoin may be doomed.

Why do I say the third opinion? Without proving the underlying assets, a potentially unlimited amount of Bitcoin can be created on paper, causing the supply to surpass 21,000,000 and destroying one of Bitcoin's economic foundations...how far this reaches (just equities market or also crypto market, and how long until decoupling, if decoupling corrects the balance) is what we'll see, if this happens.

I voted no, as I believe the SEC would rather deny the applications and help institutions accumulate more cheaper bitcoin after retail investors react to the denial news, rather than allow them to destroy Bitcoin. I also believe institutions would rather play the market for the time to come instead of zap up all trust and demand from Bitcoin. I think (and hope) that this mentality is gone from within governments and institutions....though we will see for sure on Jan 10, if the decision happens then.

In addition, if the ETF is approved with no proof of underlying asset required, I think it'd be fair to assume that BlackRock  & other applicants like Fidelity & JP morgan are more powerful than the SEC. It will be horrifically surprising if the SEC is so negligent aa to not ensure underlying asset proof for these ETFs, and this will go down in history (at least, it will for me).

Maybe yes, maybe no, but it's more a "no" for me.

A proposal against mixers (https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2023/10/23/2023-23449/proposal-of-special-measure-regarding-convertible-virtual-currency-mixing-as-a-class-of-transactions) only receive feedback until January 22, 2024, so I think both of them won't be different. It's either ETFs will be accepted first, then this proposal will follow it or vice versa.

But I'm expecting this proposal will be accepted first because accepting ETFs first doesn't look an appropriate procedure.

I dont think there will be a Bitcoin ETF this month. First, the SEC has consistently rejected Bitcoin ETFs. Despite current talk, old ways of doing things are hard to change, especially in regulatory agencies. Gensler is skeptical about Bitcoin for more than one reason. Its a reflection of how regulators feel about the volatile and uncontrolled nature of cryptocurrencies.

Consider political pressure. The courts and Congress want things to be more open, but when does pressure cause the government to change quickly? Keeping investors safe is the SEC's main goal, and a Bitcoin ETF might be too hot. Since Bitcoin is volatile, they're right to be cautious.

Bitcoin fans should have a long-term view. Its okay if the ETF doesnt get picked up this month. Bitcoin's rise in fame and ability to dispel doubts have always happened slowly. A delayed ETF clearance doesnt hurt Bitcoin's value or chances. An occasional setback is only another step in our long-term journey.

"Do you actually think a Bitcoin ETF will be accepted this month?" - To be honest, I don't care at all whether Bitcoin ETF is passed this month or ever. The speculative nature of this news is not interesting to me, because this event does not introduce any fundamental changes to bitcoin. As bitcoin worked before, it will continue to do so. Everyone will be able to own and use bitcoin as usual (without ETF). Where has the spirit of the anarchists gone? Why do you need regulatory approval for BTC-enthusiasts? The impact on fluctuations (growth) in the price of bitcoin will be unimportant here, because in the future bitcoin will still become more expensive, regardless of the adoption of app123. If this news (not accepting Bitcoin ETF) has a negative impact, then there will be many more positive events ahead that will push up the price of bitcoin. In general, I don’t care what happens to this Bitcoin ETF.

I'm not entirely sure, but I think it's best not to have high hopes. Bitcoin will stay as it is whatever happens. Also, there's a possibility that the hype around the Bitcoin ETF is just a way to manipulate the price of Bitcoin. Many people are hoping that the ETF will be approved this month, but this optimism is causing the hype to grow even more. When there is hype, many people may experience FOMO and lose money afterward. Just like the sudden drop in Bitcoin's price a few days ago, FUD that the ETF may not be approved greatly affects the market. Unfortunately, this has caused many people to lose their money.

You know the truth: the SEC has no choice but to approve those who have submitted an application to them. The SEC cannot approve anything now or else they will be sued.

If so, this is the first time that there will actually be approval for the bitcoin spot ETF, because what often happens is that they always reject the applications that are submitted to them. That is why a lot of the crypto community here in the crypto space are expecting too much on this main event coming on January 10 2024.

Let me start by saying the options given to us to vote for are not complete, you could have a neutral vote included to it because me as an example, I would have voted for the neutral since it is not something that one can speculate with viable data and statistics. Choosing Yes or No will only be a mere guesswork which I will never opt for.

As it is now, the ETF has taken sway of the crypto market and I believe this might continue to linger until the post-halving moments. Well, The 10th of January is near already, and we have barely a week to it now, maybe it will put to rest all these as more lawsuits are expected if the SEC eventually reject it. For me, I don't know if they will reject it or not, nevertheless, at present, the news and headlines of rejection are more than the possibility of appealing it. While some claim that they would approve some and reject others. All these could be true or not, but I urge everyone not to be heating the market now but wait for the actual outcome to decide on what is true.

Should in case SEC eventually reject it, you should brace for bearish movement across the cryptocurrency market board. But I do not see this lingering for months the way the ETF caused the bullish sentiment in the market for months. However, if it is approved, I expect Bitcoin and altcoins to rise, but it won't be as much as people expect.

not sure. everyone is talking about the halving, I think the bitcoin ETF is starting to be forgotten but there is no positive news being published. If it is accepted at the same time as the halving hype this year, Bitcoin could soar and it is even impossible to predict the extent of the trend. I think this will be interesting to wait for. let's wait another 4 days it will be decisive with this bitcoin ETF. everyone is definitely waiting for a good decision.

It's expected to be approved and the SEC have no choice anymore but know that this still won't stop the price action of Bitcoin not to run down the hill, we will see massive dump if the ETFs do get disapproved too, my advice is be ready for anything, have some stable coins keep aside and also keep holding your favourite gems for the bull market.

Don't expect or hope too much about the ETF approval, it does not even matter because without ETF Bitcoin and crypto will still do what they have been doing since the past years, new all time high will be made and bear market will follow.

Most investors have put their hope and believe that SEC will approve Bitcoin ETF by January 10th based on this, a lot of investors and institutions have prepared down by stashing their portfolio waiting for the approval, but it might be a big disappointment to them if SEC didn't approve it,as expected from them by people, and this will bring down the price of bitcoin because we have start seeing some drop in the price. It was this approval of bitcoin ETF news that made bitcoin price to hit $45k for the first time in this circle and what will happen when SEC refuses to approve it. It means that we might see bitcoin price below $40k

The sentiments are divided , and the feeling is really heartbeat away because this is more
interesting than those other ETH approving issues that happened back in the years , now it feels like this
is really a near to come event and I can't wait to see what will truly happen to the market as the government
is going to this decisions.just few days ago before it comes to reality so hoping that we are coming with a
great result this January .

I think it will not be approved not only because of recent comments made by our old friend Jim Cramer, but also because there are huge delays the SEC is facing in order to go through the ETF applications and approve any of them. What is the rush? Most bitcoiners will not even be able to use them anyway (and don't tell me about buying Bitcoin ETFs with bitcoins on an exchange - just buy the real thing).

I don't expect an approval this month. The SEC has a very clear position regarding Bitcoin (not a security) and other altcoins (securities, subject to the SEC's regulations). As long as Gensler is the head of the SEC, I don't think this position will change. They're facing some pressure, but they can deal with it by pretending to take Bitcoin ETFs seriously, by asking for more documents and buying more time. Maybe they'll make Gensler resign or something, and in that case, things can change very quickly. If an ETF gets approved, I'll see it as a big win and something somewhat surprising. Especially if it happens so fast, just this month.

It looks like there will be another ETF delay this month. That's what happened before. Who knows when the ETF will be approved so that it could provide an impetus for Bitcoin prices to increase. But looking at the odds, the ETF will be approved who knows when.

It's best not to think about ETFs too seriously because we might miss something interesting this month (if anything). And when the ETF is postponed again, there is a possibility that the price will experience another correction. Prepare your money to buy more Bitcoin.

But if an ETF can be approved, whether this month or next or another, that could have a positive reaction in the market. It may immediately push the price of Bitcoin to increase higher before the halving. Let's wait and see what will happen this month.

In my personal opinion, I think yes Bitcoin ETF will be must accepted but if you ask when will it be happen in this month I will say not sure may be or not. However, it is heard from various sources that ETF Bitcoin is going to be accepted at the beginning of this year, but it is also true that they have been promoting this same thing for more than 5 years. But anyway, I think this time information can be trusted a little.
Although many SEC officials have been speaking out against cryptocurrency at various times, ultimately I think they will have to give it approval, either today or tomorrow. But I hope we will see some final announcement in the first quarter or second quarter of this year.

That's definitely a possible outcome. Gensler could reject them and just make new excuses saying at least they actually took the applications seriously this time instead of just completely rejecting them out of hand without a thought.

I think it comes down to how much pressure is on Gensler. If Gensler feels like he can get away with rejecting them he will because as head of the SEC he has always made it abundantly clear he wants to see Bitcoin and crypto rejected from American society. BUT, if he feels like he is going to be under major political heat and the SEC is going to be under major heat from the courts by rejecting them then that's the chance that we have for an approval.

Impossible to say which way it'll go because we don't know how much pressure Gensler is actually feeling. It may be that he feels some pressure but won't give in now, but after another round of rejections the pressure on him will get a lot more intense and force his hand later this year or early next year. Cuz I think if the SEC rejects them then Gensler is definitely going to be dragged in front of Congress in the near future to get hardcore grilled about why he is continuing to arbitrarily standing in the way of a Bitcoin ETF out of his own personal bias. Or it could be he has already been feeling significant pressure since last Spring and he is planning to allow the ETFs to go through so that he doesn't get his butt kicked by Congress again, which is why we're seeing the SEC actually engage seriously with these applications and the respective parties involved.

Not sure if its going to be this month, next month or in half a year. But what I am sure of, is that it is eventually going to get approved. Anything pushing the market down is pure market manipulation from whales and their media friends so that they can buy some cheap Bitcoin off of the gullible panic sellers. Honestly, I would not be surprised if the SEC is working together with the whales to fill their pockets before Bitcoin starts mooning to 100k. I do not want to believe it, but who knows what will happen in this shady, corrupt world of ours...

Either way, the best option is to hodl.

From all positive indication I think Bitcoin ETF will be approve soon with all the series of on going meetings by SEC with the major stake holders in the financial market clearly shows a possibly approval is on course but might not be immediate SEC might seek for more time to make some recommendations before final approval though all eyes is set to January 10th when the announcement by SEC would be made even if approval would be extended the price of Bitcoin might experience a minor correction, however Bitcoin is unstoppable for now with upcoming halving later in the year I believe it price would remain bullish.

Interestingly Jihan Wu, founder of Marixport tweeted (https://twitter.com/JihanWu/status/1742577001633026365) about this, saying that realeasing and wide spreading of that report wasn't planned, and that they have no control over it. As their analysts work intependedly. It's good that they cleared that up, but i guess, as it affected markets, i guess they needed to say something in case of legal backslash.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/matrixport-founder-says-dissemination-bitcoin-etf-report-beyond-our-control

But now that i have thought this overnight, while approving it would be good for bitcoiners during next few years, it might be a a double sided sword, as if government approval brings bitcoin to new heights, the financial value of decentralization would be highly dependable on the governents which it was designed to be resilient to. I would rather see bitcoin growing without any permission or approval.

They knew exactly what they were doing, but thought it would have a much smaller impact, maybe a $1k reduction in price, but there weas too much leverage on the market and when it started falling all the leveraged sheep went down together. They probably did not expect the move, I give them that, but they knew what they were publishing and they published a positive report first, the price kept going up, so they made a negative one to pop the balloon. Jihan Wu was often involved in shady stuff so this doesn't surprise me.

I think ETFs will be approved, but whether they are approved or not, I don't like the fact that the increase in Bitcoin price is being treated as if it depends only on ETFs. Everywhere I look, I see ETF news and there is a perception that Bitcoin is only focused on ETF news and that Bitcoin will not move forward without ETFs. I don't find this situation right.

The approval of ETFs is something that the market expects and wants. We all want the price to go up, but it would be a mistake to attribute the rise of Bitcoin to one thing.

The expectation is that ETFs will be approved and the price of Bitcoin will rise. It may be useful to take every possibility into account.

I honestly don’t see it happening this month but probably within the next quarter or even the year end. But whether its happening or not, I’m not really into it. Since I believe that even if ETF approval will be delayed, bitcoin will still continue to perform normally and will continue to gain new all time high. Bitcoin will still be highly volatile, and even if bitcoin value drops, it will create a bigger opportunity instead for those who cannot afford to invest in bitcoin when the price is ultimately high.

The US doesn't force any of their institutions to do something out of their minds. So the SEC Chair, Gensler, isn't under any pressure at all. He could decide whatever he wanted. Since he personally hates Bitcoin, he is constantly delaying Bitcoin ETF approval. I believe Gensler still hasn't decided anything but wants to collaborate. The court hasn't forced him to approve ETF; the court just says there is no restriction if the SEC wants to approve it. So at all points, the Bitcoin ETF fully depends on SEC Chair Gensler. There are rumours that we may get ETF approval news very soon or this week. I wish it could happen.

We can't assure but never been hopeless for that to come. We have to give them time to study the situation as I believe they have a plan for it but yeah, if the SEC leaders are against Bitcoin, we could expect delays of approval or the worst is rejection.

That is why I'd never choose to think about it now and then as something will disappoint me. Better I hear the news about the date of approval rather than hearing "soon" because that is possible it never happened.

so the SEC in 2024 has met with the stock markets (NYSE, CBOE, NASDAQ)
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/sec-to-finalize-comments-on-spot-bitcoin-etfs-with-stock-exchanges-today

also the applicants have filed extra 8-A filings today in regards to registering securities under 12(b) category

which a quick google says

so things are moving very very close
vaneck https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1838028/000093041324000030/c107594_8a12b.htm
grayscale https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1588489/000095017024001501/btc_form_8-a12b_1.4.24.htm
fidelity https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1852317/000119312524001377/d582196d8a12b.htm
ark21 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1869699/000119312524002254/d647221d8a12b.htm

If bitcoin ETF will be approved this month, then we will see bitcoin price increase in the following days. But as much as I want to see it, I also have this feeling that it will not be possible this month since a lot of rumors have been coming out that the acceptance might be delayed and most probably, we will see bitcoin price in dips again.

Well I have no issues seeing bitcoin price drops again because as long as volatility is present, we will always see and experience price fluctuations. While it could be a threat for those who are greedy to gain an income, but it will also serve as a big opportunity for those who have plans to enter the market while price is still in dips.

While it is not yet approved, the chance is always there that it might get a decline. I'm okay whichever comes as the result.

But with all the SEC talks and meetings with different institutions, exchanges and the ones involved with the application. Does it makes sense to think that there's actually a positive progress?

That's what I think if I'll be basing on those movements.

Imo it's a 50/50 chance although I'm slightly more inclined to an approval rather than a rejection. The reasons being that Bitcoin is now a more mature asset compared to 2017 (6+ years in the making) and also the fact that we now have the biggest players pushing the ETF narrative for Bitcoin this time rather than a crypto native company. In any case, I will miss the Bitcoin etf ads especially this one from Bitwise  (https://youtu.be/uCx5cQkvrOU?si=a-YtpPrS6rGS-K_L)  if the ETFs are rejected this month.  :P

The other 50% said this would be rejected, and those who said it just had a pessimistic attitude about how Bitcoin was evolving.
when the ETF News was postponed until Q2 2024 this already gave a negative perspective that Bitcoin will not be accepted, so the Price crashed,
but look how now, Bitcoin Price is recovering, LOL.

Talking about ETFs is very sensitive to the price of Bitcoin, but we'll see how the biggest drama about these ETFs will end.
Big companies or big players will certainly drive the narrative that Bitcoin ETFs will be accepted.
We will see the Bulls breaking through the new ATH when a Bitcoin ETF is accepted.

Well, I was very positive last year that bitcoin ETF will be finally approved, but upon seeing a lot of news circulating online, I think bitcoin ETF will not be approved this time, or it may have the chances to be approve but in the later part. And whatever the outcome of the price of bitcoin due to disapproval if ever, I won’t be totally affected since I still focus on my goal on hodling bitcoin for long term. Bitcoin will still be bitcoin no matter what, it’s potentials to keep on surging will always be there, but only needs perfect timing for it to be done.

I'm also not so sure about this, but I think it's the SEC that has the power over this. It's the SEC that set all those deadlines in the past. But it's also the SEC that extended those deadlines and delayed the decisions. This January 10 deadline is also coming from the SEC, so my hunch is that they could once again move this deadline to a later date.

I'm not sure how many times they can move the decision dates. But if this is the deadline of all deadlines, then they could easily say no, and they have all the reasons to do that. But, of course, this doesn't preclude the same players to once again file revised applications.

I can't say if this month the other applicants for the spot bitcoin ETF will be approved; the SEC may delay it for a while, or it could also be this month that they have approved something. I'm not sure.

But the only thing I'm sure of is that they will approve some of these applications, because it is unlikely that they will approve anything because the Sec will surely face a big problem if they reject it this time. That's all I know about that matter.

If none of the current ETFs are approved, it would be a major blow to the industry and it would break a lot of hearts. A lot of people started to believe again in a Bitcoin ETF this time because of the caliber of orgs pushing for it this time. If it turns out to be a failure, there's no telling what's going to happen. We can already see what the excitement about the pre-approval already, that's why I have my fingers crossed.

This is looking like a now or never kind of situation. A Bitcoin ETF + Halving — what a time it would be to be alive.

I feel both of your points because as it is now, one cannot tell where all this speculations is going to end. One cannot tell to what direction this is leading to but it will definitely be amongst the two you’ve mentioned in your post. If they reject it this time around, I will have to come to a conclusion that SEC is just here to follow in the manipulation of the market after knowing that the market reacts or respond to the trends of the bitcoin ETF approval.


Any direction the market goes now shouldn’t be a disappointment to anyone. We already know what is ahead of us whether it is accepted or not, by knowing so, I think the mind and body should be programmed to such state so that it doesn’t affect our mental state when the unexpected happens.

It will surely be forgotten again if things consistently remain to be uncertain. But for now, I think it isn't yet, as there people who are still positive about its acceptance. The year is only getting started, so we still have plenty of time for waiting and giving allocation for the people on the ETF side, if what are going to be their decisions, if it's going to be a yes or a no.

BTC can still soar even without the ETF but only with the halving alone because it's a super event which will impact the Bitcoins mechanism in a positive way. Though with the power of halving and ETF combined, it can be predicted that the duration of the pump will remain longer than usual.

There's a big difference between forcing something and there being pressure. Yeah no one can force Gensler to approve an ETF, but that doesn't mean there isn't a lot of pressure on him to approve it, because there is, and there has been for most of last year. For example, if SEC rejects the ETFs again now Grayscale will likely sue them because the court already threw out the SEC's bogus reasons for denying Grayscale last time. Other of these firms looking for an ETF approval may sue the SEC as well. So the legal pressure is already there and will likely get a lot more intense if Gensler blocks the ETFs. Also you just know that Gensler is going to be hauled in front of Congress again soon and get grilled mercilessly if he denies the ETFs again.

The political and court pressure is very real for Gensler. And he certainly knows it will get a lot more intense this year if he rejects the ETFs. That doesn't mean he will approve them, because no one can force him, but it does mean he is taking these things into account. While everyone knows he hates Bitcoin and doesn't want to do anything to help it grow in America and wants to see it die in America, given all the pressure on him, and all the pressure that would be on him if he rejects them again, he may be weighing the costs and decide its not worth it to delay the inevitable ETF that's gonna happen anyway in a few years once he is out of office, if the other option is being put under continuous intense pressure for the next 2.5 years of his job.

That's essentially the calculus going on that will decide if the ETFs get approved now. Does Gensler stick to his guns and greatly increase his troubles or does he just say screw it and allow the ETFs against his own personal desires in order to not be hounded by this for the next couple years. It's looking the past month or so more and more like the latter as the SEC is making sure all the applicants have everything perfect and ready to go in the applications and it seems market insiders think its like 80%-90% likely that the ETFs will get approved next week.

If Gensler does continue to stand as a single man against the entire US Bitcoin market, well, he's got a s**tstorm coming his way. Before last year there way no pressure on Gensler so he could reject all ETFs over and over, as the previous head of the SEC did as well, with whatever lame excuses he came up with. But this is a whole different environment since Congress started getting fed up with Gensler continuing to stand in the way of an entire market and since the SEC started losing the court cases they seemed so confident about.

I'm not entirely sure what the SEC will decide this January about a bitcoin ETF - but the odds of it being approved are becoming more likely than not. I'm considering several factors including the pressure you talk about - so Gensler should already know the worst impacts if he wants to fight it himself.

On my side - 85% will be approved, while the other 15% will not be approved. The market will fluctuate sharply whatever the decision - but things got worse when the bitcoin ETF was rejected, but - not for long.

Three days from today, questions like this will be answered, and I think on January 10, there will be another rise in Bitcoin's price value. And it is likely that other altcoins will also have a bounce in price values that currently have short-dumped their prices in the market.

That's why I think this is the opportunity for us and other traders to buy potential alts in the market as well, and I also think that the SEC will actually approve what will happen to bitcoin spot etf that too; it seems unlikely that they will actually approve anything for that matter.

I saw just yesterday that there was a new update, some sort of "hurdle" was passed where it was a big step for bitcoin and all of the companies looking to bring a bitcoin ETF to the market.  Do I think it will pass this month? Perhaps. Perhaps not.  That said, it's coming, and I can almost guarantee that.  Blackrock, Vanguard etc all wanting to join in on this ..those companies quite literally run the planet.  They eventually get what they want. 

are you talking about the filings by applicants of 8A registering their securities
and then the exchanges acknowledgements of 8A via 19b-4
those are the main last filings for exchanges acknowledging listings on their exchanges of securities. however some applicants still need to disclose some details to SEC like their fee's and basket amounts and shares per basket stuff which they have until the 8th jan to file

Was there already an article released that it's going to be delayed? Here's the article (https://blockworks.co/news/analysts-comment-on-matrixport-etf-report) that I've seen at my Twitter alerts so I have to say that it's a bit weird that your odds might not be what it is, although a delay means nothing anyway, people can always wait for bitcoin and whatever that might be that can affect the price, they (including me) is going to be waiting no matter what happens. Hopefully they make a really long delay in the approval though, I want to accumulate some more because I'm sure that if you're percentage is correct, there's going to be a big pump in prices and I don't want to miss out on that.

I do think that the ETFs Approval is going to be possible this time around.

Right now, there is ongoing adjustment and amendments that is needed to make the ETFs a success from both the SEC and other regulators, this is the first time since the past year's that such move is been made.

The only thing I don't know is when they will finally approve it, we are expecting the approval this month but no one can say for sure, I read online that the name will also be changed, instead of having BTC related to the name it will be something different, I don't know how genuine is this news.

The good side is the success of Bitcoin doesn't rely on this ETF approval, if it's a no for the ETFs Bitcoin will still survive.

I voted No, and the reason is the negative news surrounding the ETF since the last days of 2023, while some people had their supposed proof and insider thoughts that the ETF would not be approved. Just like you said, some parts would be approved while the other parts would be rejected. Some people are even saying they will postpone it to the middle of the year the way they did in November, so it the situation around it is sketchy and none of it is emphatically encouraging.

I advise that as rumours and even some uncertified news are not the actual outcomes yet, I believe it would be unwise to 100% ascertain a position from anybody here. The SEC has the final say and I believe we should wait for that moment, otherwise, we will only be gambling on beliefs and assumptions.

I guess it will be either that bitcoin ETF will be approved by 10 of January, if not, then we may not see getting it approved in this month. I do not know if delaying it further can cause SEC to face some legal issues too.

Tomorrow is Monday 8th Jan, and I am hopeful that SEC will approve this on Monday or Tuesday, if not, I guess they are not going to approve it or going for delaying tactics. Whatever is the cause of the excuse, bitcoin will have the selling pressure.

No. Bitcoin won't get approval that easily. Why do many people have such high hopes for a Bitcoin ETF? I know it's not wrong, but what you need to understand is that Bitcoin's current position is not above everything, so the likelihood of getting approval for an ETF is actually quite low. Even though there's pressure from some parties, there are others waiting in line besides Bitcoin.

Is there pressure from many sides? The SEC still has other options that could even benefit them. While Bitcoin has the potential to benefit them too, their considerations will be a bit more peculiar because it's their right.

I can't have high confidence in a Bitcoin ETF this month. It might take another year or a few more years.

Actually if you ask me that question my answer will be not sure. We are seeing that a long time these activities but at the end of the day nothing is happening. But I can assure you that Bitcoin ETF approval will definitely happen but when it will happen is very difficult to say. But for now I will say that they will hold the approval in this month .

It's probably gonna get approved, the SEC is just sitting on the papers to make sure they can have the fullest control once it's out there.

Once Blackrock stepped in, it's become clear that Gensler must retreat a bit. A class action against SEC from the 13? companies would mark the end of Gensler's political career for sure. It's money that dictates in the US, and we have big enough money coming into the space now. This no longer can be ignored. Imho.

I think it will happen. Everything points on it. First of all, major players are interested in Bitcoin ETF being accepted. I believe it will make a positive influence on the price and the demand. But I am sure that it won't be as huge as some people expect. Accepting ETF can attract some new players, but not entirely unfamiliar with the crypto sphere. Because using ETF and understanding the meaning of such a decision requires prior familiarization with the topic. That's why I think that those who are interested in Bitcoin ETF are already partially were interested in Bitcoin itself.

In general, Bitcoin and the market have increased significantly in price over the past few months, so I think even if the SEC approves ETFs, it will be difficult for bitcoin to continue to increase in price. So I think there is still an opportunity if you want to continue buying bitcoin at low prices, I do not believe bitcoin can increase vertically and we will enter the bull season before the halving. I am inclined to the possibility that the ETF will be approved, but I think that is when the market will distribute and be dumped and not continue to increase as strongly as everyone expects.

Whatever decision is made, it will be done with the aim of manipulating the market, quite possibly at the local level. From the first days of this year, even without any acceptance or rejection, manipulators liquidated many shorts and longs, only on rumors, so I don’t think anything will change in the future in the cryptocurrency market, everything will be aimed at catching traders by surprise , but this will not affect the holders, so draw your own conclusions.

Whatever decision made for sure it will bring a huge impact to the market. So by now lets get updated to the latest news about those ETF if we can see it accepted or not since if there's positive news about it for sure that we can see outrageous amazing growth since for that event for sure that many people will get hype and also we can also add up the halving effect that can also rise up the vibes of people so more hype to come with that.

But if unfortunate incident happen and if they decline it again then expect that we can see a huge dump will happen since that will also play a role on the market and for sure many people will dump their coins out of disappointment for what happen with that submission.

voters seem to be divided on this question which shows that this is quite a difficult question considering that the sec is not showing positive signs towards bitcoin etfs but is not negative either. but i think that the bitcoin etf will be accepted by the sec, but with various regulations where its movement is really limited and not like etfs in general, but that's just my prediction.

I really don't understand why people are so happy about a btc etf ruled by the sec. Btc should be for the people, not for the elite. So screw the etf

Sounds like you're way more versed about all of this than I am.  I just read an article on one of my bitcoin apps that discussed (and I believe I read this either yesterday or the day before) that a hurdle had been crossed for either or or more of these companies filing which of course brings us one step closer to actually getting them to market.   Thanks for providing all the details.

I'm pretty sure that it's going to happen. There's so many positive signs, even the recent one where the SEC issued a warning to investors that they should not fomo into bitcoin because of the ETF news. Why would they do that if there was no ETF approval incoming? They're not some kind of protectors of the little guy. They couldn't care less about you. All they care about is their job and their reputation and they don't want to be the ones to be blamed for the FOMO, therefore they warn you not to go all in into something that's going to be accessible in the coming weeks.

It can still be approved but not on this month, let’s see if it will be possible in the last quarter.  But regardless if it’s approved or not, that is not a big issue for me since bitcoin will always be bitcoin even if bitcoin ETF does not exist. The potentials of bitcoin that it will become something very valuable in the future will always be its goal, so even if bitcoin ETF gets disapproved throughout the process, we can still expect that bitcoin will always be at its own best in time.

Good chance there is, but honestly the radio silence regarding this ETF when news about it seem to flash every week or so last year is just so suspicious to me. It's as if they are already talking about it regardless, but are experiencing a couple of hiccups along the way. It didn't really help as well that weeks prior from today news broke out about the SEC not approving any bitcoin ETFs which were quickly debunked but my superstitious ass is saying that there probably is something going on behind the scenes that led to this. Matter of fact I believe that ETF or not bitcoin's bound to bounce in value soon enough, just talking about the recent price dump from 45k to 42k is telling me that either the market doesn't care about the ETF, or that the ETF is just too minor of a factor to be considered as a good reason why bitcoin's bull run is to come sooner.

I honestly wouldn't really mind whether an ETF is approved or not. It's not necessarily going to be the definitive reason why bitcoin's going to pump in value or going to be accepted globally as a staple currency anyway, so I don't really hold too much hope in bitcoin getting the ETF approved, or the ETF even causing anything massive for that matter since from what I said earlier it couldn't even put a dent on bitcoin's value when allegations of ETF being disapproved are put out on the internet.

ETF approval likely has nothing to do with the market as it pumps without this. We are just making it hype and many people misunderstood it, they are now thinking that ETF is a tool for a huge price increase and Bullrun. In fact, so many times that it was rejected, the price of Bitcoin pumps and recovered from the dip and this has not just happened one time but so many times. This means that Bitcoin will reach another ATH without ETF, indeed a halving can do better than this.

The market clearly thinks an ETF is imminent this week, price just pumped from $43,000s to $46k (highest since what like Spring 2022) since last night.

uhhh you're very wrong about that. There has been a lot of hype about the possible ETF approval since last Spring or Summer and that has largely driven the price. Literally everyone understands this, not sure why you are trying to play the contrarian on something so obvious.

Price at $46k now is exactly 2/3rd of the $69k high. Compared to the previous market cycle high of $20k two-thirds was $13,333 which was indeed hit briefly in like May 2019 following the huge pump after that bull market ended, but wasn't reached again until I believe October 2022, about 5 months after the halving. And we are at that price now 3 months before the next halving, so this market cycle is currently about 8 months ahead of the last one. Why? The reason everyone knows: ETF. And if the ETF is indeed approved this week, the price could very well reach 75%-80% or higher of the ATH even just by the halving, which is unprecedented. Normally the price by the halving is like half the ATH because it takes time for the halved amount of bitcoin entering the market to create a supply constrain, which then leads to hype, and bull run.

While it is natural to expect each cycle for more and more people to front run the halving as the world slowly catches on to the fact that Bitcoin keeps going exponentially higher and goes through a huge bull run every four years tied to the halvings, still, the reason the price is so much ahead of last cycle is because of the expectation of an ETF, and if approved its gonna cause the market to move even faster.

Right now, ETF approval or rejection is what is controlling the price.

Gary Gensler posted a cryptic message trying to warn people of their investments some less than 2 hours ago that was what spark the bitcoin candle to shoot up by $2000 dollar, man is trying to be pro active trying to warn people because he knows that he has no choice but to accept the ETF ese he go to court which everyone knows that the court is going to win and they will later be approved, he's trying to serve himself the medicine he always serve people saying bitcoin is this and that but we know he doesn't care at all.

Let's this be approved and let's see what institutional investors are going to do with this hype, they should buy all the bitcoin they want, there is something I want to really check badly and that is their influence in this market, if it is going to stop this havoc and crash we do have from some group of people or they are just another people that we should avoid like FTX and the rest we had in the last 4 years cycle.

Oh that's funny the market would pump when Gensler basically warns people not to invest lol. Yeah I guess maybe people saw it as a last ditch effort by him to try to get people to not buy the ETF just before ETFs are announced. He's a bitcoin/crypto hater through and through. Of course that tweet could also have been a warning he's gonna dump the market by rejecting ETFs in two days haha, but hopefully not, hopefully it was just a pathetic attempt by him to stop Bitcoin momentum just before the SEC approves the ETFs and Bitcoin takes a much larger step into the world of global finance.

From what I understand from his tweet, he is trying to warn people to be careful and not be too Fomo. He gives advice, not telling people to stay away from bitcoin.

To me, from the SEC announcements and Gensler's tweets in recent days, that means they are implicitly saying that ETFs will definitely be approved. And we shouldn't blindly Fomo, as ETF approval also doesn't guarantee that bitcoin will continue to rise in the short term. Don't forget the saying "buy rumors, sell news".

90% of his tweets as a reflection of the Bitcoin ETF official opening letter were approved. after the tweet was posted Bitcoin showed a significant increase reaching $37K. In my opinion with what Gary Gensler conveyed to the public before making any decisions, it is hoped that the public will remain careful, it is natural that this is given because indirectly Gary Gensler does not want the public to blame him in the future. however Fomo and Hype cannot be stopped because the news of the Bitcoin ETF being approved is the long-awaited momentum.

But what about now that Bitcoin crossed its highest price after 2021 bull market? reaching above 47 thousand and looking at it? we are now near to close the 50k in which the next target of bitcoin as the ETF seems to be on place sooner.
no one will blame him if he stops commenting and tweeting  ;D

Gensler has to secure his job position and he has nothing with current active laws and regulations to refuse Bitcoin Spot ETF applications with a fact that he and SEC. approved Bitcoin Futures ETF applications.

If they say they reject Bitcoin Spot ETF applications because Bitcoin price is volatile and they do it to protect investors, US. citizens, it is like a slap to their faces. Because a truth we all know, Futures is more risky than Spot.

My belief is they will have to approve those applications this time with some great progress like it is a first time they stepped down and met companies to finalize things. Already comes to a last step for approval too so it will be very big shock if Gensler destroys his career and future to reject all applications. However, who knows what he thinks and who back him?

I hold my bitcoin not because of this belief but because I strongly believe in future of Bitcoin and Bitcoin Spot ETFs will be approved, if not in 2024, will be next years.

I also believe that the SEC cannot continue to delay approval of ETFs and that approval will come through. But if we encounter a bad scenario where the ETF is not approved, it is not too worrying for the future of bitcoin. I invest and hold bitcoin because I believe it is the future even as governments continue to seek to ban it and not recognize it. I'm excited and looking forward to getting ETFs approved, but that's not the reason I hold bitcoin. Without an ETF bitcoin would still be growing and getting bigger, IMO.

How many years that our community here waiting for this approval, I think its time for all of us to expect this happening because there have been so much wait and now we are getting closer to reality of acceptance .

Yeah we are just days or weeks before ETH accepted . and disappointment is not in the table anymore because we are use to this , either approved or not life must go on.

The Bitcoin ETF is a completely dramatic phenomenon. Bitcoin is passing ETF approval today not tomorrow and so day after day. People don't trust Bitcoin ETF anymore. If this continues, how long will people trust fake Bitcoin ETF? But the Bitcoin market will run and run at its own pace. Currently seeing fake Bitcoin ETF taking over the market without authorization. From here we can say that bitcoin market growth will not stop whether bitcoin is approved or not.

The poll shows interesting results. It’s 50/50 on whether the etf will be approved. Interesting…

Personally I think it will be approved. It would be pretty aggressive for the SEC to reject it especially with names like BlackRock and Fidelity filing for it. The world is run by these companies, they buy politicians ffs. Anything Larry Fink gets his hands on will be approved.

Anyhow say the etf does get approved, how will it effect Bitcoin price. I mean I know it should cause more demand and a gradual price increase but in terms of volatility will it make volatility worse or not so much?

many ETF updated their S1 on the 8thjan to include their management/trade fee's...
if the SEC was wanting to delay things, they would not have responded SAME DAY with update recommendations for applicants to update again before the 10th.

it shows the SEC really is trying to get ETF applicants ducks in a row before the 10th

if the SEC wanted to delay, they would have not responded and let the errors/lack of detail come to fruition on the 10th to then decline or set new deadlines

This is probably what caused Bitcoin to skyrocket today. Some of the news that I read is that it is very likely that ETF will be approved. I'm not sure yet but I'd be happy if the ETF was approved. This is because a bitcoin ETF will pave the way for other coins into spot ETFs. There are several figures that show that the fees for transactions in spot ETFs have been determined. I got the image below from one of the telegram groups.

We have to wait 2 more days to know the official results but with the news being spread on social networks, I am also very optimistic that the SEC will approve the spot ETFs. But I don't think ETF approval will trigger an immediate bull market, even for bitcoin. I think bitcoin will still increase after the news of ETF approval but the price will not increase too much and there will be a price drop after those few days. Many people are expecting and believe that if the ETF is approved, we will have strong growth of bitcoin soon after, I really doubt this.

1 day left for the US time zone (utc -5)

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i've started noticing a wave of people eagerly anticipating the SEC announcement. Numerous predictions are popping up on my social media feed, ranging from a bearish market if it gets rejected to price predictions if the Bitcoin ETF is successfully approved. Perhaps many will be closely monitoring the Bitcoin market in the upcoming days.

Regardless of the outcome, I don't have any intention to sell BTC for the next few days. Whether it's accepted or rejected, I haven't made any plans to make a decision. Just a reminder for everyone not to easily succumb to FUD before the official announcement is released. If you're planning to make a move, get your funds ready on the exchange starting now.

I don't know why you think that the ETF approval has nothing to do with the market. Good, the market might pump without it but what happened in a few months where the price of Bitcoin pumped so well is attributed to the ETF, which is why I know that the approval or rejection might affect the price of Bitcoin, so you should get ready for it. The only thing is that it might not be as much as people think as the drama around the approval or rejection is enough reason for the market to be tired and get confused when they actually make a decision or even postpone the decision.

But no matter what happens, even with the postponement, the market will react decisively, and I even suspect that postponement would make Bitcoin fall because the market would read it as a disappointment, and in turn, Bitcoin could fall massively in the wake of the news before it stabilizes again. This is not hype as you called it, the market dynamics and psychology are real and what many are interpreting to it are real as the market can't be idle when such a big event that is important to the advancement of Bitcoin is being pursued and mentioned. Only that people might have overexaggerate things, yet the effect will be felt just as it has been felt.

Tomorrow is the big day. At this point I am quite confident an approval is coming.

I think that the SEC decision is going to be postponed for God knows when. Maybe February or maybe several months.
I wouldn't view it as a tragedy if the Bitcoin spot ETF gets denied. It was a nice bull run from 27K to 45K, caused by all the hype around the BlackRock Bitcoin Spot ETF. The price will crash back to 30K or 20K and we shall keep waiting for the post-BTC halving bull run.
I guess that some crypto friendly hacker got access to the SEC X account. Hackers are on our side. This is a clear sign that we will win the battle against the government. ;D

Well actually it is 27-47k run mate and yeah a 20k increase is not to be questioned so we had enough even if this ETF denial brought bitcoin fall again then this will be our privilege to buy more again when this over.
it may come in the coming years but the world of crypto will continue progressing what we have had over the years.

We all expect that scenario to happen and it will help bitcoin grow better, but we should not be too subjective and need to prepare for a bad scenario because no one knows what the final decision of the SEC will be. 
As for me, I'm not too concerned about this event because I think that even if the SEC approves etfs, it won't help bitcoin reach a new ATH, and I won't sell my bitcoin if it hasn't reached a new ATH yet. In case etfs is rejected and dumping occurs, this will be an opportunity for us to continue accumulating bitcoin at a better discount.

When? Noone can actually tell that, unless he is some kind of a fortune teller lol. But the question, most of the time is, wheter or not will it be accepted... The answer is simple. IT IS INEVITABLE! ;)

While many investors around the world were waiting for the SEC's ETF result regarding BTC, what happened yesterday was a complete comedy.
When the news broke that the SEC had approved the ETF in account X, BTC quickly rose to 48 thousand.
I think this is officially speculation and how could a large organization like the SEC hack account X? It is wondered whether a million-dollar profit was made in such a short time.
That approval will definitely come, but investors should not be victimized by such news.

I think it will be accepted in the end, but whether it really is accepted this month I doubt it, the SEC will make a drama out of this Bitcoin ETF by playing on the psychology of investors to create a fear effect on the SEC and say that they are a superior institution over the market crypto trading. From the start, I didn't really care about this Bitcoin ETF because whether it existed or not, Bitcoin would still grow, only speculators wanted this Bitcoin ETF to exist.

I think many investors are eagerly awaiting the approval of a Bitcoin ETF. However, there is skepticism and concern surrounding the potential impact of Bitcoin ETFs on the market. Some believe that a Bitcoin ETF could lead to increased volatility and speculation,Others argue that it could legitimize Bitcoin as an asset class, that it would represent a step toward greater integration and acceptance of cryptocurrencies in traditional finance, which could lead to new opportunities and growth for the asset class. Overall, the approval of a Bitcoin ETF in the market is a hot topic and is generating a lot of discussion and debate.

They just release a rumor regarding its acceptance but I'm actually half believing that it will be accepted and there's some part of me doesn't believe that it will happen now since those people just use it to influence people regarding on what they want to do. And ETF denial is one of their ways to make the market move on the direction they want so they can accumulate or whatever they like from it. We should need to prepare for dumping stage to happen especially that there's a huge chance that it will get denied the same on other submissions made. Bitcoin is not well adopted and there's few country declare it as their legal tender so no wonder that officials will deny it since they might not see a strong demand for this coin.

This ETF decision has become a sideshow. Bitcoin never sought traditional financial system approval. Bitcoin survived without ETFs, right? Bitcoin is decentralized, unlike traditional financial institutions. Whether the SEC approves or not isnt the end of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's power comes from its community and shared belief in its value. Its about a fundamental change in money perception and use independent of established financial frameworks. Thus, "fuck ETF," represents Bitcoin. Its about breaking new ground, not following market systems.

ETF rejection could lead to dumping, but I see it as an opportunity. We can strengthen our Bitcoin positions at better pricing. Bitcoin's long-term objective should be prioritized over typical market volatility. We believe in a decentralized financial future without public consent, so we hold onto our Bitcoin.

The incidence that happened yesterday has made me develop some doubts about the Bitcoin ETF approval. While some people may see it as actually activities of hackers, a part of me thinks it is all plans of the SEC to postpone the ETF approval as usual. I can be wrong though but this is a possibility that will become clearer next week.

If the ETF gets approved next week, then I will believe the incidence was a hack else it will be confirmed that it was an intentional development deployed by the SEC as reason for refusing the ETF approval. This is my opinion and I know we are few in this line of thought.

The ETF story is getting too long and frustrating, if they want to approve it, let them do it, and if not, they should let us know. The issue is that the SEC is anti-crypto, but knows that it will be in the eye of the storm if it rejects it since a court has already sided with it. But since they knew it was going to be rejected, they are trying to dodge it, that is what I see in this. But for how long?

However, I heard that if postponed again, it can't be less than 4 months, if not 6 months which might still affect some post-halving sentiments.

I wouldn't call these crypto-friendly hackers but nuisances and manipulators. I wonder what they were thinking if not for their pocket alone. They can't be crypto-friendly hackers and manipulate the market in such a way that it can't last, they will rather leave it to fight for itself if their intention is good towards Bitcoin.

Even if the SEC would approve it eventually, it can't first be known on the X platform, never.

I don't think anyone will believe that their account was hacked , everyone knows the truth about this fake story but we can't do anything other than listen to their explanation of what's going on . Not only you , there are many opinions that this fake news will become the reason for them to continue to delay the approval of ETFs. But we don't have to wait until next week, today is January 10 and we will have the final results today . Let's wait and see what the SEC decides in the end . Personally, I am a long-term investor and I still have more than 30% USDT left , so whether they approve or disapprove, I will accept them my way .

The most talked about topic at the moment is Bitcoin Spot ETF Approval. Bitcoin Spot ETF will be approved this month and it is not good to be sure as the Bitcoin Spot ETF approval date has been set several times before but the date has been changed several times by the US SEC Govt. Bitcoin spot ETF approval was also supposed to happen yesterday but actually this date has also been changed. So for now, it is not sure whether the Bitcoin Spot ETF will be approved this month, but the Bitcoin Spot ETF will be approved by 2024.

People are expecting an approval to be announced late this after.

Market is going down a bit, I guess probably the fake announcement yesterday muddied the waters and made people suspicious.

It is not yet clear that what will the act of SEC about the approval of bitcoin ETF but as few days ago there were negative news arise about bitcoin ETF approval so it negatively impact the price of bitcoin as a consequence of which altcoins were also effected.

I think shortly the SEC will approve Bitcoin ETF because chances of approval are more according to predictions. Now the bitcoin price is 45k$ so when approval of ETF gets confirmed then the price will soon goes to more higher value but still there is no information that when it will be approved by SEC but still we are in good hopes as this approval takes longer timing than expected.

I guess that the approval impacted the price, but not as much as most people expected. Yes, we can observe some rising up, but it could also be due to the general bullish environment right now, not precisely thanks to the SEC`s decision. However, I believe that it is too early to make uo our minds about this case. We have to keep following the news and their impact on the market.

It has definitely strongly impacted the price, but if you look at the volatility there is also a segment of the market that tried to be contrarian traders and attempted (and failed) to create a "sell the news" event. Price bounced down to $44/$45k twice immediately after the approval so some of the price pump was just bringing it twice back up from those drops.

And now price a few minutes ago went over $49k, though back to $48k now. And it hasn't even been 24 hours since the approval. ETFs start trading today, likely soaking up at least hundreds of millions if not billions of dollars in the coming days. Price is likely going to pass $50k soon.

Not really that surprising that price is very volatile around the event itself. There was definitely uncertainty about what the market would do immediately from the event. Now that its clear the price is pumping and the contrarian sell-the-news traders were beat out I think we'll see a steady rise a few thousand dollars higher which will show the immediate effect of the ETF, pumping the price from the $42-$46k range likely to low $50,000s as the short term effect, which is obviously a good short term result considering that the price had already strongly pumped recently in anticipation of the approval.

Not the immediate >$50k effect that I expected personally, but given the large segment that tried to crash the price it is pumping well and $50k will likely be getting hit by next week I would guess.

Of course the major effect of the ETFs will be long term as tens of billions of dollars of capital comes in through that avenue to soak up bitcoin supply.