Do you actually think a Bitcoin ETF will be accepted this month?

[Kakmakr]

I think the BlackRock ETF application has a high chance to be approved, because they had multiple opportunities to review and also to correct their mistakes. The SEC has to have solid reasons not to approve it and they will have to be ready to defend it... if it is not approved.

The decision is more based on political agendas for the upcoming elections, so it can go both ways, depending on who is supporting it.

[Dimitri94]

I think it's going to get approved. I don't know if it's going to be this week (most likely not) or the next, but it's going to happen.
Personally, I don't bet on this. I don't have any leveraged positions and I haven't bought any bitcoin last month. I have more than enough to sleep on for another year, waiting for the bull market. I don't care if it comes because the ETF, or despite it.

There's a number of things that scream it's going to get approved, starting with the Blackrock's approval rate, which is 98 or 99% and ending with the SEC asking applicants to change their redemption mechanisms from in-kind to cash. These are final adjustments which you don't discuss unless there's strong grounds for approval.

Since last year we have been expecting that ETF will be approved. But as the time approaches, there are various reactions to it. Although no official announcement has come but it could come soon. The SEC made an announcement last year in which they will reveal about ETF approval but as things stand, it looks like it could take much longer. That means the official announcement may be delayed further. But since there is doubt here, we should take more time. Although many investors are prepared, they are looking at SEC. But there are some risk takers who think that ETFs will be approved.

[PIMPdev]

I'm sure that the final decision will be this month. Don't know if it will be approved or not, but most likely it will. Will be interesting to see how BTC and the world will react.

[Gormicsta]

I think it's going to get approved. I don't know if it's going to be this week (most likely not) or the next, but it's going to happen.
Personally, I don't bet on this. I don't have any leveraged positions and I haven't bought any bitcoin last month. I have more than enough to sleep on for another year, waiting for the bull market. I don't care if it comes because the ETF, or despite it.

There's a number of things that scream it's going to get approved, starting with the Blackrock's approval rate, which is 98 or 99% and ending with the SEC asking applicants to change their redemption mechanisms from in-kind to cash. These are final adjustments which you don't discuss unless there's strong grounds for approval.

Here, you've made some thought-provoking insights. True, Blackrock has a high approval rate for exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and the SEC's proposal to modify the redemption process may be a good indication. But it's also critical to remember that other elements, like market dynamics and regulatory issues, might have an impact on the choice to approve.

[BenCodie]

All 14 applicants have no technical plans to prove the Bitcoin underlying their ETFs

Based on this fact, I have three ideas:
- The SEC will use this as a reason to yet again, deny the applications.
- The SEC will approve the applications, though require a proof system to be established.
- The SEC will approve the applications...Bitcoin may be doomed.

Why do I say the third opinion? Without proving the underlying assets, a potentially unlimited amount of Bitcoin can be created on paper, causing the supply to surpass 21,000,000 and destroying one of Bitcoin's economic foundations...how far this reaches (just equities market or also crypto market, and how long until decoupling, if decoupling corrects the balance) is what we'll see, if this happens.

I voted no, as I believe the SEC would rather deny the applications and help institutions accumulate more cheaper bitcoin after retail investors react to the denial news, rather than allow them to destroy Bitcoin. I also believe institutions would rather play the market for the time to come instead of zap up all trust and demand from Bitcoin. I think (and hope) that this mentality is gone from within governments and institutions....though we will see for sure on Jan 10, if the decision happens then.

In addition, if the ETF is approved with no proof of underlying asset required, I think it'd be fair to assume that BlackRock  & other applicants like Fidelity & JP morgan are more powerful than the SEC. It will be horrifically surprising if the SEC is so negligent aa to not ensure underlying asset proof for these ETFs, and this will go down in history (at least, it will for me).

[Despairo]

Maybe yes, maybe no, but it's more a "no" for me.

A proposal against mixers only receive feedback until January 22, 2024, so I think both of them won't be different. It's either ETFs will be accepted first, then this proposal will follow it or vice versa.

But I'm expecting this proposal will be accepted first because accepting ETFs first doesn't look an appropriate procedure.

[Blitzboy]

I dont think there will be a Bitcoin ETF this month. First, the SEC has consistently rejected Bitcoin ETFs. Despite current talk, old ways of doing things are hard to change, especially in regulatory agencies. Gensler is skeptical about Bitcoin for more than one reason. Its a reflection of how regulators feel about the volatile and uncontrolled nature of cryptocurrencies.

Consider political pressure. The courts and Congress want things to be more open, but when does pressure cause the government to change quickly? Keeping investors safe is the SEC's main goal, and a Bitcoin ETF might be too hot. Since Bitcoin is volatile, they're right to be cautious.

Bitcoin fans should have a long-term view. Its okay if the ETF doesnt get picked up this month. Bitcoin's rise in fame and ability to dispel doubts have always happened slowly. A delayed ETF clearance doesnt hurt Bitcoin's value or chances. An occasional setback is only another step in our long-term journey.

[m2017]

"Do you actually think a Bitcoin ETF will be accepted this month?" - To be honest, I don't care at all whether Bitcoin ETF is passed this month or ever. The speculative nature of this news is not interesting to me, because this event does not introduce any fundamental changes to bitcoin. As bitcoin worked before, it will continue to do so. Everyone will be able to own and use bitcoin as usual (without ETF). Where has the spirit of the anarchists gone? Why do you need regulatory approval for BTC-enthusiasts? The impact on fluctuations (growth) in the price of bitcoin will be unimportant here, because in the future bitcoin will still become more expensive, regardless of the adoption of app123. If this news (not accepting Bitcoin ETF) has a negative impact, then there will be many more positive events ahead that will push up the price of bitcoin. In general, I don’t care what happens to this Bitcoin ETF.

[DabsPoorVersion]

I'm not entirely sure, but I think it's best not to have high hopes. Bitcoin will stay as it is whatever happens. Also, there's a possibility that the hype around the Bitcoin ETF is just a way to manipulate the price of Bitcoin. Many people are hoping that the ETF will be approved this month, but this optimism is causing the hype to grow even more. When there is hype, many people may experience FOMO and lose money afterward. Just like the sudden drop in Bitcoin's price a few days ago, FUD that the ETF may not be approved greatly affects the market. Unfortunately, this has caused many people to lose their money.

[bettercrypto]

You know the truth: the SEC has no choice but to approve those who have submitted an application to them. The SEC cannot approve anything now or else they will be sued.

If so, this is the first time that there will actually be approval for the bitcoin spot ETF, because what often happens is that they always reject the applications that are submitted to them. That is why a lot of the crypto community here in the crypto space are expecting too much on this main event coming on January 10 2024.

[EarnOnVictor]

-snip-
What do you think? Are we just days away from Bitcoin ETFs getting accepted or is the whole market about to be in for a huge disappointment?

Let me start by saying the options given to us to vote for are not complete, you could have a neutral vote included to it because me as an example, I would have voted for the neutral since it is not something that one can speculate with viable data and statistics. Choosing Yes or No will only be a mere guesswork which I will never opt for.

As it is now, the ETF has taken sway of the crypto market and I believe this might continue to linger until the post-halving moments. Well, The 10th of January is near already, and we have barely a week to it now, maybe it will put to rest all these as more lawsuits are expected if the SEC eventually reject it. For me, I don't know if they will reject it or not, nevertheless, at present, the news and headlines of rejection are more than the possibility of appealing it. While some claim that they would approve some and reject others. All these could be true or not, but I urge everyone not to be heating the market now but wait for the actual outcome to decide on what is true.

Should in case SEC eventually reject it, you should brace for bearish movement across the cryptocurrency market board. But I do not see this lingering for months the way the ETF caused the bullish sentiment in the market for months. However, if it is approved, I expect Bitcoin and altcoins to rise, but it won't be as much as people expect.

[the rise]

not sure. everyone is talking about the halving, I think the bitcoin ETF is starting to be forgotten but there is no positive news being published. If it is accepted at the same time as the halving hype this year, Bitcoin could soar and it is even impossible to predict the extent of the trend. I think this will be interesting to wait for. let's wait another 4 days it will be decisive with this bitcoin ETF. everyone is definitely waiting for a good decision.

[Crypt0Gore]

It's expected to be approved and the SEC have no choice anymore but know that this still won't stop the price action of Bitcoin not to run down the hill, we will see massive dump if the ETFs do get disapproved too, my advice is be ready for anything, have some stable coins keep aside and also keep holding your favourite gems for the bull market.

Don't expect or hope too much about the ETF approval, it does not even matter because without ETF Bitcoin and crypto will still do what they have been doing since the past years, new all time high will be made and bear market will follow.

[Sim_card]

Most investors have put their hope and believe that SEC will approve Bitcoin ETF by January 10th based on this, a lot of investors and institutions have prepared down by stashing their portfolio waiting for the approval, but it might be a big disappointment to them if SEC didn't approve it,as expected from them by people, and this will bring down the price of bitcoin because we have start seeing some drop in the price. It was this approval of bitcoin ETF news that made bitcoin price to hit $45k for the first time in this circle and what will happen when SEC refuses to approve it. It means that we might see bitcoin price below $40k

[rodskee]

Supposedly we've only got a week until many people think the SEC will accept the first Bitcoin ETFs.

Do you think it'll actually happen? Or do you think it's just been a bunch of 'hopium' and the SEC is just gonna reject all the ETFs same as they've been doing for the past 5 years?

The sentiments are divided , and the feeling is really heartbeat away because this is more
interesting than those other ETH approving issues that happened back in the years , now it feels like this
is really a near to come event and I can't wait to see what will truly happen to the market as the government
is going to this decisions.just few days ago before it comes to reality so hoping that we are coming with a
great result this January .

[NotATether]

What is scary is how 80% think it will be approved this month. This is getting to the point where everyone expects it to be approved and usually when the herd is going one way the opposite happens.

Reminds me of 2017, people were 99% it would be approved and instead it was rejected and we had a nasty spike down. But the remainder of the year was still bullish when bitcoin broke $1K all the way to $20K.

I think it will not be approved not only because of recent comments made by our old friend Jim Cramer, but also because there are huge delays the SEC is facing in order to go through the ETF applications and approve any of them. What is the rush? Most bitcoiners will not even be able to use them anyway (and don't tell me about buying Bitcoin ETFs with bitcoins on an exchange - just buy the real thing).

[kryptqnick]

I don't expect an approval this month. The SEC has a very clear position regarding Bitcoin (not a security) and other altcoins (securities, subject to the SEC's regulations). As long as Gensler is the head of the SEC, I don't think this position will change. They're facing some pressure, but they can deal with it by pretending to take Bitcoin ETFs seriously, by asking for more documents and buying more time. Maybe they'll make Gensler resign or something, and in that case, things can change very quickly. If an ETF gets approved, I'll see it as a big win and something somewhat surprising. Especially if it happens so fast, just this month.

[michellee]

It looks like there will be another ETF delay this month. That's what happened before. Who knows when the ETF will be approved so that it could provide an impetus for Bitcoin prices to increase. But looking at the odds, the ETF will be approved who knows when.

It's best not to think about ETFs too seriously because we might miss something interesting this month (if anything). And when the ETF is postponed again, there is a possibility that the price will experience another correction. Prepare your money to buy more Bitcoin.

But if an ETF can be approved, whether this month or next or another, that could have a positive reaction in the market. It may immediately push the price of Bitcoin to increase higher before the halving. Let's wait and see what will happen this month.

[Crypto Library]

In my personal opinion, I think yes Bitcoin ETF will be must accepted but if you ask when will it be happen in this month I will say not sure may be or not. However, it is heard from various sources that ETF Bitcoin is going to be accepted at the beginning of this year, but it is also true that they have been promoting this same thing for more than 5 years. But anyway, I think this time information can be trusted a little.
Although many SEC officials have been speaking out against cryptocurrency at various times, ultimately I think they will have to give it approval, either today or tomorrow. But I hope we will see some final announcement in the first quarter or second quarter of this year.

[thecodebear]

I don't expect an approval this month. The SEC has a very clear position regarding Bitcoin (not a security) and other altcoins (securities, subject to the SEC's regulations). As long as Gensler is the head of the SEC, I don't think this position will change. They're facing some pressure, but they can deal with it by pretending to take Bitcoin ETFs seriously, by asking for more documents and buying more time. Maybe they'll make Gensler resign or something, and in that case, things can change very quickly. If an ETF gets approved, I'll see it as a big win and something somewhat surprising. Especially if it happens so fast, just this month.

That's definitely a possible outcome. Gensler could reject them and just make new excuses saying at least they actually took the applications seriously this time instead of just completely rejecting them out of hand without a thought.

I think it comes down to how much pressure is on Gensler. If Gensler feels like he can get away with rejecting them he will because as head of the SEC he has always made it abundantly clear he wants to see Bitcoin and crypto rejected from American society. BUT, if he feels like he is going to be under major political heat and the SEC is going to be under major heat from the courts by rejecting them then that's the chance that we have for an approval.

Impossible to say which way it'll go because we don't know how much pressure Gensler is actually feeling. It may be that he feels some pressure but won't give in now, but after another round of rejections the pressure on him will get a lot more intense and force his hand later this year or early next year. Cuz I think if the SEC rejects them then Gensler is definitely going to be dragged in front of Congress in the near future to get hardcore grilled about why he is continuing to arbitrarily standing in the way of a Bitcoin ETF out of his own personal bias. Or it could be he has already been feeling significant pressure since last Spring and he is planning to allow the ETFs to go through so that he doesn't get his butt kicked by Congress again, which is why we're seeing the SEC actually engage seriously with these applications and the respective parties involved.