Bitcoin Forum

Below is a logarithmic chart of Bitcoin price history (Bitstamp USD).

In technical analysis, the blue trapezoids are known as "falling pennants", they tend to lead to breakouts.

In overbought conditions, as has been the case in all BTC rises to date, the pennant that follows will almost always breakout to the upside.

In this chart we can see fairly periodic pennants with breakouts to the upside, the price staying within the logarithmic channel.

http://www.game4coins.com/btc/ta_log.png

They are increasing in frequency and amplitude.

Yes, it would appear that way from the data available.

Each over-ring seems more volatile, even on the log scale.

What goes up, must come down.

http://www.day-trading-wisdom.com/images/Elliott-Wave-Theory.jpg

Maybe it doesn't fit the channel... ;D

That's the general problem with TA: Selective perception of a few trends and patterns while in reality there are myriads of possible trends and patterns.

The next phase could take a little longer this time.

Except we are way past 5 waves at this point. Which suggests some other mechanic s are at work.

I wish that would be true to mining difficult  :D

I'm not sure bitstamp data includes it.

here's all bitstamp data in log scale:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl

I think my offering takes a somewhat broader time period than most.

Fixed for you.

Some bubbles belonged to the same general wave (the two of 2013 for example). Consensus among EW chartists is that bitcoin currently is in a corrective wave C of major wave 3.

Yeah I do not doubt that. However it is still selective. There is no assurance that it has any predictive value.

To be clear: I'm not saying the description is wrong or irrational for the time period shown. I just wouldn't use it to predict the future.

Yes, what's your guess?

Myself, I think breakout may occur sometime before july.

I'm ballparking a 90% chance it will be to the upside.

and this is the general problem with people like you: selective defeatism of analysis is just as dangerous of a bias.

the real answer is that the 2011 bubble is not included in the Bitstamp all-time data, and unfortunately, Gox data has been rendered incomplete on the other end of the timescale :P

good observation, John999.

--arepo

It doesn't have to, that chart is just an extreme example. Nevertheless, corrective waves can get fairly close to where previous bubbles took off (see bitcoin in 2011 for example).  

OK, fair enough.

I must say that I took all bitstamp data that is available in bitcoincharts. So if it is selective then it is not by intent.

edit:
a composite of mtgox early days and bitstamp for later days would be great.

That's an interesting chart! Looks like it's predicting a "breakout" soon - We'll probably need some good bitcoin-related news to give it the initial kick that starts the breakout, but I certainly hope your prediction is correct!

Good news tends to happen just after the newspaper writers have bought in.

down ... your mother ... pls remenber your father ..

+1
hope it will work out this time again

LOL, wishes

Bitstamp $442 USD,  Titanik

http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/739/isml.jpg (http://img69.imageshack.us/i/isml.jpg/)View Screen Capture (http://img69.imageshack.us/i/isml.jpg/)

LOL, despair

Just go to https://www.tradingview.com and enable indicator Linear regresion, and you have this picture.

http://www.dodaj.rs/f/27/9e/4vr0gXBR/yyy.jpg

LOL, LOG scale enabled, paint use or Photoshop,

Just go to https://www.tradingview.com/e/VifVKYQr/# and enable indicators Linear regresion, MFI, RSI, MACD and you get real chart picture.

Past results are not indicative of future performance

here is results in real time !

Profesional Forex tools and chart in real time for all currencies.
https://www.tradingview.com/e/VifVKYQr/

You don't need professional tools. That's like going to a weather website to see what is outside your window.

Check technical aanalysis:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKUygyi7apQ&feature=youtu.be

I beg to differ, a "trend" is a perfectly viable concept in technical analysis.

Technical analysis relies on analysing past results in order to take a "guess" at future performance.

I would argue that past results can be indicative of future performance. Note that I did not use a word like will or is.

Cetainly in a statistical sense past data holds some information about the future, it has to as we are talking about a continuous (albeit somewhat chaotic) signal, if you disagree with this then really ought not be posting in the "speculation" sub forum.

Buy Igorr, my dear chap,

you are only considering 4 months worth of data.

newsflash: bitcoin price chart goes back a little further than that.

every rise and pennant has followed a similar pattern.

furthermore: i challenge you to find any other 2 year old chart that will stay within a logarithmic channel.

careful cbeast!

the fact that volume also goes up with log may make igorr burst a small blood vessel on his forehead. :D :D

but yes it certainly bodes very well for higher future prices.

Yes log scale is usefull when analysing high dynamic range data (so what?)

Yes I hand drew my analysis (so what?)

The chart in your link is considering one pennant as an isolated case, nonetheless the overall trend in your link is UP.

I must remind you AGAIN, several of these pennants have already happened and the price has remained within the overall log channel.

Rest assured I know my technical analysis, and have practiced it for over 10 years, and have written bitcoin charting software using c++.

Check technical aanalysis:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKUygyi7apQ&feature=youtu.be

I did, and i do not agree with it.

P.S.
I added your name to my web page, see if you can find it ;)

http://www.ledset.com/cortex7/index.htm

So to back up my standing I can honestly tell you that I have written a "professional charting application"

Can you say the same Igorr... Can you?

Oh it also was written for PocketPC back in the day:

http://www.ledset.com/pocketcharts/index.htm

PWNED!

Thanks for the logarithmic chart, g4c - been looking for it. Made it my desktop background to chase those sell sell sell demons away  ::)

http://www.game4coins.com/btc/ta_log.png


This is looking good IMO too :)

Skyrocket is almost ready to launch :)

Have you fasten your seatbelt? :)

We are going to the moon! :D soon ...

Yes, it does appear that way when you take an overview of all data available :)

You're welcome, glad you like it.

I like it a lot too! Looking very very optimistic.
Those "sellsellsell" panic makers are just typical in days of drops ;)
Your chart will set the demons away a bit for sure :)

Thanks roslinpl,

Yes, the identical pattern of cynical behaviour has also happened at the tail end of all previous corrections. I attribute it to people attempting to drive down the price before buying in.

In fact I find it reassuring that they act the same this time, if they didn't I would be slightly spooked, thinking there was something different about this cycle. But no they act exactly the same, the pattern seems the same, all is in alignment for the next rise :D

I think the percentage of traders intentionally trying to drive down the price, so they can buy back at a cheaper price, is small. I'd attribute the tail end dips more to just plain old human psychology.

It's a big game of chicken. Wait to see who blinks.

I agree the majority of traders don't actively broadcast information to manipulate. The majority receive and process information.

But there are a few that attempt to manipulate the market psychology in order to gain. I have noticed this manipulation increases at the tail end of corrections and flips over after the rise begins.

I have not gathered data to support this, but I can honestly say that I have "noticed" it.

I think we might see, within two months, many players (mainstream media included) go volt face and start the talk up. Of course this will occur after they have bought in.

Wow, looks like I will be able to buy more at $100/BTC in July. I can't wait.

Indeed :D,

Using igorr's "analysis" you should probably wait for August and get it for free.

Better still: wait for September and get paid to receive Bitcoin!

new ATH by end of July 2014!

Looks can be deceiving. lol let's see if you can but REAL btc at $100 on exchanges and not MTGOXBTC.

yeah, as a noob I see a bullish tennant in igorr`s Chart.
 right ? g4c ?
anyway, igorr is a doom-prophet,as always

Yes, it's an important pattern and you are right to see it.

Use the data of the bitcoinaverage.com API. they use the gox data until they started tracking the price. :)

I am still loking for data before the start of gox. Already found some. When my dataset is as complete as possible, I will post a file somewhere on the forum :)

Great, sounds like a must-have data set!

A dude on 4chan wants to know how you made this.

i don't know how to find the question on 4chan, but...

[1]screengrab this chart
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl

[2]crop and invert in photoshop

[3]draw channel and pennants with photoshop

Approx when does the #4 triangle end? sometime in May/June?

By my approximation: June 1st ± 1 month

note: this is later than the triangle as drawn.

All very comforting

After looking through this thread it is very conforting but does anyone take into consideration how much negative talk there is in the news about bitcoin lately?

Yes, and you can take that as further comfort, considering the negative talk seemed to increase right before and during the last 2 spikes.

Exactly. Considering how the brother LiteCoin is boiling, the time is near.

this is because Bitcoin holders do not like fiat and have started to buy LTC as they sell off their BTC. the markets have decoupled since yesterday.

Please make more charts that point up and to the right and less that point down and to the right. Thanks.

here you go @edok... ;D

http://www.game4coins.com/btc/bullish.png

Allrighty...the speculation forum is way, way, WAY more fun and entertaining than the general forum...but not as eye watering as the 5900 page thread  :o Now that I'm on Day 2 of my bitcoin crash course education directive I have to comment on the charts. I was seeing you guys posting them other places but they made no sense until I found this thread and it's giving me the impression that there is a very real element being ignored on at least one side, so unless that is factored in with reason and intelligence, credence of market direction goes to the other side :D

One side, the ones who are posting all these downswing charts insisting the cap has been reached and the only way to go is down are the ones who are leaving out the element in question more often than not. They've cited (here and elsewhere) the end times of bitcoin and argued that basically nobody wants it and smart people have had enough loss to cashed out and left the fad to die a slow (or rapid) death.

I'm legitimately interested in this:

http://i58.tinypic.com/ayoizp.jpg

http://i60.tinypic.com/1zbwefd.png

http://i57.tinypic.com/11ccvba.png

What, specifically, took place in the bitcoin world before the upswings and the downswings? Is there an archive posted that keeps up with the events that took place to determine the trigger event for either swing?

That would be the ideal place to look for a trigger to predict the trend with better accuracy and get a better idea of the bitcoin market's personality and behavior. Things don't shift "just cause" - and none of this is arbitrary and random. The swings are the end result of a cause. And they will still adhere to Newton's Law of Inertia and keep on doing what they were doing until disrupted. Those triggers sent it the other direction.

I'd like to see what those causes were from an historical perspective to see the trend better than I do today.


Right now, just posting charts saying "what goes up must come down" doesn't cut it...we don't know (yet) if the IRS thing or the China thing or some other thing is a trigger event...the trend, however, seems more clearly supported by the upswing with minor drops but overall, a steady rise...and the real reason for that is increasing interest in bitcoin as a sustainable solution to massive inflation and debt.

The drops look more like panic selling while the ones who "get it" stay the course.

Am I missing something?

Again, if there is *any* source available I can check out for the events or a historical archive of things going on regarding bitcoin in relation to the X's in the above images, please point me to them. I'm still new and there are a bazillion pages on this forum I've yet to see. Links or sites - greatly appreciated, thanks!

They seem to have recoupled, no?

@serenitys
This recent post by Blitz should be essential reading for all noobs.
From https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=400235.1800

Try not to get too seduced by all the charts with lines or the people on the main wall thread bragging about how great a trader they are....they come, they go.

Remember, whatever you invest, be prepared to lose.

Miners are the door through which new coins enter the market. I think the tightening triangles are correlated with mining. When the market tightens then miners are holding for a higher price. New buyers coming in and wanting coin might be the trigger, after which pure elation and greed takes over (and everyone posts "to-da-moon") until it get's overpriced. Then the turning trigger again might be miners dumping coin, even if they buy their next asic rig using BTC, the asic company will sell coin straight away, especially if the price is high.


This forum has every post timestamped, although it would be a large job to analyse and look for correlations.


It would be interesting to overlay a log chart of total network hashrate on top of a log price chart.

But a clearer picture might be had if you can overlay "delivery rate to miners" of hash power, as the asic companies will mine quite a bit themselves, and they might have different trading patterns, I suspect miner manufacturers sell coin a little easier than private miners.

Yes, negative news articles always seem correlated with down moves. One might almost think the newspaper owners were steering the price, how unethical! :D

In purely speculative markets, psychology becomes a larger factor. If bitcoin gains much more utility (i think it will in time) then the volatility should reduce.

One thing the bears tend to ignore is the investments and expectations of miners. This adds a great inertia to the system, for example even if everyone dumped bitcoin except for miners, the price would not zero out, miners alone would prevent drop to zero, kind of like a safety net.

I made a new composite of all recorded market data for BTC, going back to MtGox trading at ~5c per BTC.

It does seem that relative volatility is tending to reduce, as to be expected as market cap grows.

http://www.game4coins.com/btc/btc_log_composite.png

it is just manipulation with price the same as 2.mart 2014 year. (blue zone --- red zone - blue zone --- red zone)

http://img845.imageshack.us/img845/6955/hw2y.jpg (http://img845.imageshack.us/i/hw2y.jpg/)View Screen Capture (http://img845.imageshack.us/i/hw2y.jpg/)

@igor, this thread is called:

"the BIG picture"

not the:

"picture cropped to 10%"

your little triangle has happened many times before and will happen many more times.

take your limited perspective elswhere please. ::)

http://www.game4coins.com/btc/btc_log_composite.png

This one is great indeed .... :P

So it will hit $200mil one day! :)

Great ... :P I should hodl my BTC

Well it could happen but only if hyperinflation of the $ kicked in.

By that time nothing would be priced in $ so it's a mute point really.

Just for fun I extrapolated the log triangle.

By march 2016 we may see:

no more "bubbles".
price at $40k/BTC ±50%.
log rise transforming to linear.

I would say holding is a good move. Notice the price at 5c each on the chart below, if only we could have held a few k of those ::) :D

http://www.game4coins.com/btc/btc_log_composite2.png

I think this is actually a pretty realistic expectation, i'm fairly confident that bitcoin will easily reach 5 digits (in current dollars) and possibly 6 or 7 digits.
I mean since there's only 21 million coins, it's inevitable for bitcoin to reach at least 6 digits or so to even matter to the worlds economy.