The BIG picture, Price Prediction Chart.

[g4c]

Below is a logarithmic chart of Bitcoin price history (Bitstamp USD).

In technical analysis, the blue trapezoids are known as "falling pennants", they tend to lead to breakouts.

In overbought conditions, as has been the case in all BTC rises to date, the pennant that follows will almost always breakout to the upside.

In this chart we can see fairly periodic pennants with breakouts to the upside, the price staying within the logarithmic channel.

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[cbeast]

They are increasing in frequency and amplitude.

[g4c]

They are increasing in frequency and amplitude.

Yes, it would appear that way from the data available.

Each over-ring seems more volatile, even on the log scale.

[Dalmar]

What goes up, must come down.

[IIOII]

Why is the 2011 bubble missing on your chart?

Maybe it doesn't fit the channel...

That's the general problem with TA: Selective perception of a few trends and patterns while in reality there are myriads of possible trends and patterns.

[Wekkel]

The next phase could take a little longer this time.

[cbutters]

What goes up, must come down.

Except we are way past 5 waves at this point. Which suggests some other mechanic s are at work.

[knightcoin]

What goes up, must come down.

I wish that would be true to mining difficult 

[g4c]

Why is the 2011 bubble missing on your chart?

I'm not sure bitstamp data includes it.

here's all bitstamp data in log scale:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl

[g4c]

Why is the 2011 bubble missing on your chart?

Maybe it doesn't fit the channel...

That's the general problem with TA: Selective perception of a few trends and patterns while in reality there are myriads of possible trends and patterns.

I think my offering takes a somewhat broader time period than most.

[cbeast]

[g4c]

What goes up, must may come down.
...

Fixed for you.

[Dalmar]

Except we are way past 5 waves at this point. Which suggests some other mechanic s are at work.

Some bubbles belonged to the same general wave (the two of 2013 for example). Consensus among EW chartists is that bitcoin currently is in a corrective wave C of major wave 3.

[IIOII]

Why is the 2011 bubble missing on your chart?

Maybe it doesn't fit the channel...

That's the general problem with TA: Selective perception of a few trends and patterns while in reality there are myriads of possible trends and patterns.

I think my offering takes a somewhat broader time period than most.

Yeah I do not doubt that. However it is still selective. There is no assurance that it has any predictive value.

To be clear: I'm not saying the description is wrong or irrational for the time period shown. I just wouldn't use it to predict the future.

[g4c]

The next phase could take a little longer this time.

Yes, what's your guess?

Myself, I think breakout may occur sometime before july.

I'm ballparking a 90% chance it will be to the upside.

[arepo]

Why is the 2011 bubble missing on your chart?

Maybe it doesn't fit the channel...

That's the general problem with TA: Selective perception of a few trends and patterns while in reality there are myriads of possible trends and patterns.

and this is the general problem with people like you: selective defeatism of analysis is just as dangerous of a bias.

the real answer is that the 2011 bubble is not included in the Bitstamp all-time data, and unfortunately, Gox data has been rendered incomplete on the other end of the timescale

good observation, John999.

--arepo

[Dalmar]

the price wont go back to where it started, because then nothing would've been achieved.

It doesn't have to, that chart is just an extreme example. Nevertheless, corrective waves can get fairly close to where previous bubbles took off (see bitcoin in 2011 for example).  

[g4c]

Why is the 2011 bubble missing on your chart?

Maybe it doesn't fit the channel...

That's the general problem with TA: Selective perception of a few trends and patterns while in reality there are myriads of possible trends and patterns.

I think my offering takes a somewhat broader time period than most.

Yeah I do not doubt that. However it is still selective. There is no assurance that it has any predictive value.

To be clear: I'm not saying the description is wrong or irrational for the time period shown. I just wouldn't use it to predict the future.

OK, fair enough.

I must say that I took all bitstamp data that is available in bitcoincharts. So if it is selective then it is not by intent.

edit:
a composite of mtgox early days and bitstamp for later days would be great.

[K128kevin]

That's an interesting chart! Looks like it's predicting a "breakout" soon - We'll probably need some good bitcoin-related news to give it the initial kick that starts the breakout, but I certainly hope your prediction is correct!

[g4c]

That's an interesting chart! Looks like it's predicting a "breakout" soon - We'll probably need some good bitcoin-related news to give it the initial kick that starts the breakout, but I certainly hope your prediction is correct!

Good news tends to happen just after the newspaper writers have bought in.