The BIG picture, Price Prediction Chart.

[durrrr]

After looking through this thread it is very conforting but does anyone take into consideration how much negative talk there is in the news about bitcoin lately?

[mrbrt]

After looking through this thread it is very conforting but does anyone take into consideration how much negative talk there is in the news about bitcoin lately?

Yes, and you can take that as further comfort, considering the negative talk seemed to increase right before and during the last 2 spikes.

[HCLivess]

After looking through this thread it is very conforting but does anyone take into consideration how much negative talk there is in the news about bitcoin lately?

Yes, and you can take that as further comfort, considering the negative talk seemed to increase right before and during the last 2 spikes.

Exactly. Considering how the brother LiteCoin is boiling, the time is near.

[arepo]

After looking through this thread it is very conforting but does anyone take into consideration how much negative talk there is in the news about bitcoin lately?

Yes, and you can take that as further comfort, considering the negative talk seemed to increase right before and during the last 2 spikes.

Exactly. Considering how the brother LiteCoin is boiling, the time is near.

this is because Bitcoin holders do not like fiat and have started to buy LTC as they sell off their BTC. the markets have decoupled since yesterday.

[edok]

Please make more charts that point up and to the right and less that point down and to the right. Thanks.

[g4c]

Please make more charts that point up and to the right and less that point down and to the right. Thanks.

here you go @edok...

[serenitys]

Allrighty...the speculation forum is way, way, WAY more fun and entertaining than the general forum...but not as eye watering as the 5900 page thread   Now that I'm on Day 2 of my bitcoin crash course education directive I have to comment on the charts. I was seeing you guys posting them other places but they made no sense until I found this thread and it's giving me the impression that there is a very real element being ignored on at least one side, so unless that is factored in with reason and intelligence, credence of market direction goes to the other side

One side, the ones who are posting all these downswing charts insisting the cap has been reached and the only way to go is down are the ones who are leaving out the element in question more often than not. They've cited (here and elsewhere) the end times of bitcoin and argued that basically nobody wants it and smart people have had enough loss to cashed out and left the fad to die a slow (or rapid) death.

I'm legitimately interested in this:







What, specifically, took place in the bitcoin world before the upswings and the downswings? Is there an archive posted that keeps up with the events that took place to determine the trigger event for either swing?

That would be the ideal place to look for a trigger to predict the trend with better accuracy and get a better idea of the bitcoin market's personality and behavior. Things don't shift "just cause" - and none of this is arbitrary and random. The swings are the end result of a cause. And they will still adhere to Newton's Law of Inertia and keep on doing what they were doing until disrupted. Those triggers sent it the other direction.

I'd like to see what those causes were from an historical perspective to see the trend better than I do today.


Right now, just posting charts saying "what goes up must come down" doesn't cut it...we don't know (yet) if the IRS thing or the China thing or some other thing is a trigger event...the trend, however, seems more clearly supported by the upswing with minor drops but overall, a steady rise...and the real reason for that is increasing interest in bitcoin as a sustainable solution to massive inflation and debt.

The drops look more like panic selling while the ones who "get it" stay the course.

Am I missing something?

Again, if there is *any* source available I can check out for the events or a historical archive of things going on regarding bitcoin in relation to the X's in the above images, please point me to them. I'm still new and there are a bazillion pages on this forum I've yet to see. Links or sites - greatly appreciated, thanks!

[creekbore]

After looking through this thread it is very conforting but does anyone take into consideration how much negative talk there is in the news about bitcoin lately?

Yes, and you can take that as further comfort, considering the negative talk seemed to increase right before and during the last 2 spikes.

Exactly. Considering how the brother LiteCoin is boiling, the time is near.

this is because Bitcoin holders do not like fiat and have started to buy LTC as they sell off their BTC. the markets have decoupled since yesterday.

They seem to have recoupled, no?

[creekbore]

@serenitys
This recent post by Blitz should be essential reading for all noobs.
From https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=400235.1800

Try not to get too seduced by all the charts with lines or the people on the main wall thread bragging about how great a trader they are....they come, they go.

Remember, whatever you invest, be prepared to lose.

I would like to remind people about these charts:

Bitcoin Price movements:

I'd like to remind people that 2011's bear market is conveniently left out from this chart. Can't possibly happen again after all, can it?

Quote from this same thread:

We have seen the ups and downs and have realized it all works out in the end. 

This is the great delusion that markets bestow upon people, that a trend is invulnerable and "it all works out in the end" almost sounds like religious faith. I know that nothing I can say could possibly make you think otherwise, but still, please consider how you would react if Bitcoin slid 80% or 90% from here during the next 6 months. Even if the probability is small, are you ready for it?

Because this has happened before, and it happened in this very asset (even if you tell me that times are "different" now – well, to compensate, the price is higher to begin with!). I remember that time well. At the time, there was a long-term log support trendline, too, that was being drawn by everyone in this forum. It was violently BROKEN:



And guess what? That break ended up being the best time to buy. But few bought, for few had money to spare, and many of those who did have given up on Bitcoin. I will tell you that all along this decline, there was plenty of good news as well. I believe Bitpay was created amidst the bear market for example.

All I want to say is that eventually, all trends break. Prepare yourself for the improbable, because it is devastating to lose almost all of your wealth. Do not let your mind be compromised by Bitcoin cultists. Let this be a lesson from a former Bitcoin cultist who has made a fortune off Bitcoin by turning himself into a Bitcoin pragmaticist.

[g4c]

What, specifically, took place in the bitcoin world before the upswings and the downswings?

Miners are the door through which new coins enter the market. I think the tightening triangles are correlated with mining. When the market tightens then miners are holding for a higher price. New buyers coming in and wanting coin might be the trigger, after which pure elation and greed takes over (and everyone posts "to-da-moon") until it get's overpriced. Then the turning trigger again might be miners dumping coin, even if they buy their next asic rig using BTC, the asic company will sell coin straight away, especially if the price is high.

Is there an archive posted that keeps up with the events that took place to determine the trigger event for either swing?

This forum has every post timestamped, although it would be a large job to analyse and look for correlations.

That would be the ideal place to look for a trigger to predict the trend with better accuracy and get a better idea of the bitcoin market's personality and behavior. Things don't shift "just cause" - and none of this is arbitrary and random. The swings are the end result of a cause. And they will still adhere to Newton's Law of Inertia and keep on doing what they were doing until disrupted. Those triggers sent it the other direction.
I'd like to see what those causes were from an historical perspective to see the trend better than I do today.
...

It would be interesting to overlay a log chart of total network hashrate on top of a log price chart.

But a clearer picture might be had if you can overlay "delivery rate to miners" of hash power, as the asic companies will mine quite a bit themselves, and they might have different trading patterns, I suspect miner manufacturers sell coin a little easier than private miners.

[g4c]

After looking through this thread it is very comforting but does anyone take into consideration how much negative talk there is in the news about bitcoin lately?

Yes, negative news articles always seem correlated with down moves. One might almost think the newspaper owners were steering the price, how unethical!

In purely speculative markets, psychology becomes a larger factor. If bitcoin gains much more utility (i think it will in time) then the volatility should reduce.

One thing the bears tend to ignore is the investments and expectations of miners. This adds a great inertia to the system, for example even if everyone dumped bitcoin except for miners, the price would not zero out, miners alone would prevent drop to zero, kind of like a safety net.

[g4c]

I made a new composite of all recorded market data for BTC, going back to MtGox trading at ~5c per BTC.

It does seem that relative volatility is tending to reduce, as to be expected as market cap grows.

[igorr]

it is just manipulation with price the same as 2.mart 2014 year. (blue zone --- red zone - blue zone --- red zone)

View Screen Capture

[g4c]

@igor, this thread is called:

"the BIG picture"

not the:

"picture cropped to 10%"

your little triangle has happened many times before and will happen many more times.

take your limited perspective elswhere please.

[roslinpl]

This one is great indeed ....

So it will hit $200mil one day!

Great ... I should hodl my BTC

[g4c]

This one is great indeed ....

So it will hit $200mil one day!

Great ... I should hodl my BTC

Well it could happen but only if hyperinflation of the $ kicked in.

By that time nothing would be priced in $ so it's a mute point really.

Just for fun I extrapolated the log triangle.

By march 2016 we may see:

no more "bubbles".
price at $40k/BTC ±50%.
log rise transforming to linear.

I would say holding is a good move. Notice the price at 5c each on the chart below, if only we could have held a few k of those

[zimmah]

This one is great indeed ....

So it will hit $200mil one day!

Great ... I should hodl my BTC

Well it could happen but only if hyperinflation of the $ kicked in.

By that time nothing would be priced in $ so it's a mute point really.

Just for fun I extrapolated the log triangle.

By march 2016 we may see:

no more "bubbles".
price at $40k/BTC ±50%.
log rise transforming to linear.

I would say holding is a good move. Notice the price at 5c each on the chart below, if only we could have held a few k of those

I think this is actually a pretty realistic expectation, i'm fairly confident that bitcoin will easily reach 5 digits (in current dollars) and possibly 6 or 7 digits.
I mean since there's only 21 million coins, it's inevitable for bitcoin to reach at least 6 digits or so to even matter to the worlds economy.