Bitcoin Forum

I'm not convinced we are there yet.  Myself and lots of other people have been around here for years and have been through this numerous times.  I think this is my 6th, but I've lost track.  I've developed a sense for the point of maximum pain and have profited pretty handsomely by being able to recognize it.  Granted, the market could be mature enough that these sorts of things are becoming somewhat less painful, but it doesn't quite feel like we're there yet.  In any event, I'm watching and waiting, because I'm going to try to be there (again) when many of you are feeling that pain.  Sorry, and thanks.

Confirmed.

What is point of max pain? Could it be described as... the floor?

No need to feel sorry (well actually I doubt you do feel sorry ;D ). I like your humorous negativism when everyone else is partying.

Following the crowd is always easier than questioning it. So if you profit from it it's well deserved. Keep it up!

I think... more like... the sewer.

Yeahh.. so the point where everyone panic sells and there is no buy support. Analogous to a flash crash?

I'm not knowledgeable about the economical terminology of the phenomenon, but that def. will happen. At some point, there is a psychological breakdown and you simply 'need' to sell.. This is about to happen in the next few days.

That said, I'm not a veteran investor, but I know that if the CHINA ban is not refuted, then CHINA will do everything in its power to transfer to fiat, even if that means double digits.

Only five to ten days left..

Be sure to let us know when that point is so we can profit handsomely with you ;)

I like this sentiment  :D

So...will you tell us when you think the point of maximum pain is upon us? This is only the second bubble I am observing and I don't feel like I'm very good at gauging it. Fortunately I don't trade on my hunches :)

The larger marketcap and a multitude of exchanges should dampen the exuberance a bit. The final run on the last top was less extreme than the ones we've seen before, and therefore I'm expecting that the same will hold for the final part of this decline.

Everyone listening to Proudhon: He said he made a lot of money above. In October 2011 he told everyone to short and predicted $1 before the price would really start to fall (look up the old threads). Either he was actually buying or he lost money.

Obviously, there's no real science to it.  It's just sort of a feeling I developed from reading as much commentary from participants as possible, and by assessing my own psychology.  In fact, paying pretty close attention to the pain I feel as the market declines has been pretty insightful.  I like to think of myself as a hodler, but when I've started seriously thinking, "maybe it's time I get out, because this is getting scary...", I've managed to take stock of that, clam down, and be remarkably close to picking and re-entering at the bottom.  I've learned that emotional investing can be a real killer, and I've been most successful when I fight against what are very real and very powerful emotional responses to being a market participant.

Absolutely. I started trading because of bitcoin and it took me almost a year to grasp that concept. At that point I became successful.

The trend is your friend.

As the overall volatility of the market is decreasing, I believe it will be less painful.

I think that's right.  Though the market is still pretty volatile, so I'm expecting the same kind of painful capitulation events that are felt pretty widely and personally.  Obviously, I could be wrong, and might miss the mark on this one, but bitcoin has been pretty consistent and reasonably predictable in this regard.

Waiting for Proudhon calling the bottom.

Confirmed.

Does there have to be pain? With world leaders recognizing bitcoin enough to bother writing actual legislation for it, it's no longer just a geeky nerd internet thing. Eventually we will switch from "lol internet money" to "real world economy". We might be somewhere in the middle right now and if so, there is less reason to fear everything falling apart.

We just need to get rid of these Mt Gox model exchanges and switch to brokerages because exchanges are very risky. That will foster distributed exchanges to be developed because they are less susceptible to panic and volatility.

Yes, this.  It's happening, and the transition is clearly affecting the market.  Still a ways to go on that one, but with Gox finally out of the way this process is well underway.

You should wait for me to call it instead. I've gotten it right before (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=53949.msg644802#msg644802), after all. (Ignore the modified date, that post was modified only to edit some incorrect grammar and fix the img link)

I think we're still a ways away from it, honestly. We've gotten mostly good news out of only one country, the UK. The rest have been mostly negative, China tempting to ban it, US taxing it egregiously. It'll take some time for folks to adjust their expenses and expectations.

Also, there's a whole lot of miners that need to stop selling before we start seeing accumulation again.

When's the next halving at current estimates? When are second generation ASICs coming out? There's a lot of unanswered questions that have more of an impact on price, IMHO than anything else.

Also, how's this one for a prediction (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=82990.msg921583#msg921583)? (Note the date: May 2012. The post was about predicting the next two years. I was off on the price valuation and forced transaction fees[unless you consider the IRS regulations forced fees], but not on second-gen ASICs, regulations, and low expenses). Proudhon on the first page suspects the price will hover in the $3-$7 range. I'm not mentioning this to discredit him, because I think he's very good at noting short-term price movements and other extraneous things, but for longer range estimates, you've got to treat Bitcoin like a commodity that has the cost of mining adjusted every time a new mining method comes out that revolutionizes the way present miners obtain coin.

Watching.  Waiting.

It's coming.

It's happening.

This is the number one problem and it is simply not happening fast enough. The pain from failing exchanges and constant fear in where you put your bitcoin won't be resolved ANY TIME SOON.

How funny that a coin built around no trust is undone by not having institutions you can trust.

This is the fundamental paradox of the Bitcoin ecosystem. Removing trust in payment is only a small microscopic piece into what makes Bitcoin valuable, the rest of the ecosystem requires trust and loads of it.

We need developers to realize this and either solve it with distributed exchanges and other ways to grow the economy of bitcoin without being scammed by the Mark's of the world.

Capitulation will probably start when we cross the 400 USD mark.

Starting to feel like December. Controlling fear on the way down and greed on the way up is key.

I think I'll go shopping today.

This

Prounhon probably knows that there is no good reason why bitcoin should be as high as it is. That is your intuition speaking to you.


I don't think you will ever find maximum pain with bitcoin reading posts in the forums, if the price goes to $200, then to $100, most people will just be talking how cheap the coin is and how great a buy it is.
.

Everybody wants to get rich quick now, It is not going to happen that easily, not until the price falls way lower and stays at that price point for a long time. Than it will need something to pump it again. Last time it was china, who knows what it will be next time.

Oh no you dih'un say the C word.

385  8)

Plenty of oldtimers coming out of the woodwork for this thread.

I've been here riding the waves since 2011. The point of maximum pain is not here yet. But I predict it will be here soon. Best brace yourself for it now. When you start mentally calculating what consolation prize you can buy if you dump your stash right now, it's close. When you imagine the humiliation of telling your friends/spouse/whatever how all of the monopoly money you've been bragging about is now worthless, it's very close.

Throw your mouse across the room, scream at your monitor, lay your head on your desk and cry. Then pull yourself together and buy as much bitcoin as you can afford.

 

I feel a disturbance in the force also. I don't know where the bottom is, but based on intuition I sent some money to an exchange this morning. If I see things start to ramp up I'm filling my spending wallet. 

i feel it.

Proudhon talks sense, i'm glad i'm not the only one.

Still waiting for Proudhon's call
Hope I have patience

IMHO I think we might still be a ways off from max pain. In 2011 we looked at a 95% drop which was essentially a complete wipeout. That would take us to $60 on this cycle.

If we hit sub-$100 again I'm pretty sure the negativity will be absolute. That is my buy more target. The bitcoin I do have I am unwilling to sell though since you never know when the trend will reverse.

Well this fucked me up nicely tbh. I dont have much invested but I take it to hearth  :P
Just closed ltc long, it seams its going south much more than btc.

yes litecoin $2 seems likely

In a way I have capitulated. Retirement has been postponed.  :'(

I refuse to sell any coins, so I have gone back to work.

I only need about half my income to survive, so the cheaper they get, the more I will buy.

Things may be bad this year, but 2015 will be here in less than a year.

And 2016 is just after it.  I expect that will be the year of Bitcoin. 8)

Unfortunately I don't feel any pain because I'm ready to lose everything. I would not sell even if it goes to 0 (if it's based on FUD or political news).
I can only listen to my instinct to buy and want more. So... I'll buy when I feel that it is worth going all in with all the fiat I have left in the world. I can't put a price on this yet.

this is true maximum pain: http://edition.cnn.com/2014/04/01/us/chainsaw-accident-survivor/index.html?hpt=hp_c3

if u want to buy fine but wait be patient dude time will come

I like that  8)

440$ = Point of NO RETURN

I bought @avg. 105$ before the second run. and started shorting@820$Check my post history.
I was also part of the last bubble in April 2013 where i bought @ avg. 20$ because i thought that Silkroads 4/20 sale would bring the price up :D :D
I´m just having fun, that´s all.

You missed out the part where you were begging for money, and the part when you tried to make a shit coin ripoff, but ended up with nothing and became a 24/7 troll

???????
I think you´re mixing me up with somebody else.

Nah you are the same guy, igor too

Nah, he is not.. fonzie is annoying but at times funny troll. I'd still like to knock him down at times, though  ;D

Igorr is commie with some patriotic Russian bullshit in his signature.

And fonzie's english is much better.

I still think cosmo and fonzie are one and the same.
 Anyway Im all fiat in my little trading project, and now Im hoping for another dip and a capitulation so that I could say to myself "at least I didnt sell on the bottom".
In the event that this was the bottom i will freakout and shit my self to complete the feeling.

Cosmo and fonzie might be, igorr is unique.

Great thread guys, thanks, nice to see some oldschoolers. I also think that a state of complete disbelief at the price hasn't happened yet, so there's still some bargain buying to do later. However, I think we've hit peak trolling on this forum, so that might be a sign we're close to the bottom ;)

I m in and out of Bitcoin since 2010...saw a few ups and downs..but this time is different..more complex I believe..bitcoin is the gateway for all the other cryptos..the squeeze is on and across the board ..trying to suck up the profits from the investments made by the people that bought into alternative cryptos..I lost track of how many "promising" alternatives to bitcoin are out there ( and how many are proposed every day...) but there is a significant amount of money that went into those...So I believe that the scope is larger because of that..and of course the maximum point of pain for the Hoddlers is at play here..that being said..my opinion is that we are still going to see a decline in price until the speculators will squeeze out the "life" out of the hoddlers..and of course..don't forget the miners..of every color shape and form rushing to cash in before the price goes way down..
Just my 2 cents..

Isn't the point of maximum pain usually an orgasm?

It's happening...

Too much emotional trading.

Funny you mention the 400$ number, earlier today I Was thinking to myself "when we hit the 300's its othing but a fast decline from there, mass panic sells at this point"

Whether I should just hold my btc or diversify into other stuff.... at this point, is the question. No way am I cashing into fiat, Ive already traded some out into other commodities.
I guess the rest of my btc I will just hold till either 0 or da moon =)

Im gonna call a low of about 250 a la pain trade, but after that the last bull has become a bear, thats when you buy, because when everyone is a bear there is no one left to sell. Ive seen 2.5 bubbles, I got in at the end of the 32 one. I think we will here continuous bad news from china and other governments, going for the kill when its weak, but I think that the VC money pouring into SV, and professional exchanges and services like circle and secondmarket, will establish bitcoin again, so long as the americans dont ban it. Since I am honored to be around some old timers Id like to hear projections about time to next rally and price estimate? or is everyone think the show is over lol..

Kinda veering from the thread here but.... I dont think it matters how much VC money is going into Bitcoin, what it comes down to is if the critical mass wants something like Bitcoin bad enough. If not, those VC's will simply vanish and lose their money as well.

What we need to do is keep spreading the word about what Bitcoin offers, so that way it reaches as many peoples ears as possible, and the more people collectively want it, the less the Gov & press can eventually screw with it! Simple as that.

I completely agree. If I think about where I and others are emotionally, it reminds me a lot of the opposite of when we went up and hit $600. Based on the history of corrections in Bitcoin, I believe that means that in the next few days we will drop to around $200 and stabilize at just under $400 shortly thereafter.

Really don't think we will drop below the previous ATH. Didn't happen the last few times.

There's definitely some truth to this outlook. For the sake of everyone wondering what *I'm* at least thinking, I'll go into a bit more detail.

Looking at the major bubbles over time I believe the first one was the run from essentially nothing to $0.10 in the Summer of 2010. This was around when artforz hopped in with GPU miners. I didn't get involved in Bitcoin till late 2010, and even then I mostly lurked on the forums and mined solo using GPUs & CPUs for a bit. I wasn't present during that bubble. Gox was created around this time as well if I remember correctly. I believe it settled around $0.03 for a long while. theymos mentioned once he sold a reasonable amount at $0.02-$0.03 expecting it to go further down. It's reasonable to expect that others thought the same, that after that initial entry of a new exchange, the folks most likely to be doing the selling had tens of thousands of coin (if not even more) and probably had no reason not to sell.

The run I got to see was the run from about October 2010 to February 2011. I remember it hit a high of $1.10 where there was this huge hidden wall on MtGox since they were still doing dark orders. It then fell in most of March till about $0.55, where the next bubble started. The low of $0.55 was higher than the high of the last bubble at $0.10. It was even higher than the November mini bubble of ~$0.50.

Previous bubble high: $0.10 or $0.50
Self bubble high: $1.10 (IRC OTC was higher yet and more common for trading at the time than Gox)
Self bubble low: $0.55

https://i.imgur.com/rnSby16.png

The next bubble went from that low of $0.55 to over $30, then back down to ~$2. This one took considerably longer from high to low, and had considerable retraction as well, falling 95% or so. Still it never reached as low as the top point of the previous bubble at $1.10. The 360K volume in mid-November at the low still puzzles me to this day. It made my comments in the link I made above so much easier to do. Someone lost control of a lot of coin, and someone gained control of a lot of coin. The next bubble, to me, was inevitable.

Previous bubble high: $1.10
Self bubble high: $33ish
Self bubble low: $2

https://i.imgur.com/FOdHYb6.png

Moving on to nearly two years later, we had the run of early 2013. Most folks here probably remember this one and are familiar with the chart. It is worth noting that the crash from $260 to $55 or so in one day was likely related specifically to the DDOS attack on MtGox. That said, the "real" low of the bubble is more than likely the $65 it reached several months later.

Previous bubble high: $33ish
Self bubble high: $260
Self bubble low: $65 (or possibly $55ish)

https://i.imgur.com/I2AwI1y.png

So that brings us to today. What is the present low going to be? Generally speaking, it looks like the low is usually still double that of the previous bubble's high, but we've clearly passed that here. So what's the real bottom going to be?

Previous bubble high: $260
Self bubble high: $1150
Self bubble low: ???

https://i.imgur.com/c6REP3w.png

Thanks very much for your analysis, Raize!


What caught my eye is the 2011 Jan-April "Bubble". It seems to have a more straight downtrend than the other bubble cycles which had more of a curved downtrend, except for the cycle we are in now. Again it's more of straight downtrend.

Interestingly, the downtrend of the 2011 Jan-April cycle ended with a sharp upwards trend reversal. The analogy of a spring coil which was mentioned in another thread comes to mind. What followed was the big run up of 2011. All the other bubble cycles seem to had a curved uptrend.

Thinking of fractal patterns, we may see a spring coil reversal again?

I dont think bitcoin can just sit idle for another 2 years, to many businesses are being built for it to just lay their idle, something has to happen, for good or for bad..

Firstly thanks for that analysis Raize, I'd be interested to hear how you felt about the general sentiment during the bubles you experienced in comparison to today?


Exactly, what the previous bubbles have also shown us is a decrease in time from one to the next. I honestly believe that there is more money to be put into BTC now than around the early november 2013 price, its just all jostling for a good entry point.

People always spout of about how a $50 price difference doesnt matter but what they always fail to mention is that a price difference now compared to in the future should be expressed as a percentage. Yes $50 less now might not seem alot but as a percentage of the current price ($450) its almost 10%. At $10,000 BTC thats $1000 per coin, quite a big difference. Thus many people are looking for that perfect entry point, leading to the coiled spring effect.

Click that first link and read some of the comments from the first post, you'll note both theymos and evoorhees were very bearish on Bitcoin even after it had fallen as much as it had. I think the sentiment today is still far too chipper to say we're in capitulation. I think the tune of the forums will be much harsher once we're looking at double digits again. I also think it wouldn't be surprising to see people talking about having lost their entire life savings on Bitcoin regularly in the news, as well as a few reports of folks who took out loans that had to declare bankruptcy due to loans they took out to buy it during either bubble. Remember that the post one week after the $2 low Wired ran an article called The Rise and Fall of Bitcoin (http://www.wired.com/2011/11/mf_bitcoin/), it was seen as an experiment that failed. We have to see people saying the same things again in the news for me to think it's at a new low.

Lastly, when the next increases *do* happen, I suspect they will be significantly slower to ramp up into anything resuming a bubble. It might be another year (possibly two) yet before we see the ATH, and it might not happen till sometime after the next halving, even. This was a pretty epic bubble and there's a lot of cheap $100 coin from Gox, TM Gox coin, hacked coin, and the SR coin that might keep downward pressures heavy for some time as it gets sold regularly.

That said, I've been wrong before, I thought the fall from $260 was "the big one" and we were going back to $12 or so then to match that 96% decline, then more ASICs came out. That's why I put a heavy emphasis on the impact of taxes, regulations, and second-generation ASICs today. It could be that the expectations now for ASIC miners are going to get so high that easy coin is no longer achievable, and the supply ends up going into the hands of folks that hoard it.

Put simply, the less miners hoard, the more likely the price will fall, the more likely they hoard, the more likely we'll see bubbles form. I'm hoarding myself and waiting for double-digits to buy back in, but that's pretty much been my modus operandi for the last three years anyway. I want to retire and live off of my coin for the rest of my life, and I can't safely do that right now. Without taxes, I almost could.

As we saw with MtGox, if Bitcoin goes below $100, every exchange will become insolvent. You will not be able to buy bitcoins except from miners and that will be the end of PoW cryptocurrencies.

I am very bad trader, every time I sell prices goes UP, every time I buy price drops .. so OP I actually can control the bitcoin prices, let me know what I can do for you to relief your pain ...  ;D

I remember that time very well. I started buying small amounts in summer 2011, and continued through the low and afterwards. My thought then was that IF bitcoin didn't simply fizzle, it was very likely going to explode. Thus, any purchases with even a 95% chance of total wipeout were still very positive-expectation. I considered it a 5-10yr position, and I still do.

That said, the 2011 crash *did* worry me. We didn't have any real public awareness, hardly any academic discussion, no venture backed companies, no institutional interest or attention at all, no real seasoned entrepreneurs in the space, near zero merchant adoption, and almost no professional presence whatsoever. The risk was very real that interest in bitcoin could simply fade and that'd be that (for a while anyways.....I always considered the idea of crypto-currency to be too compelling to go away permanently).

Now that we have all of the above, I consider the pure existential risk almost gone. There are enough smart and talented people who now understand the potential and benefits of bitcoin that ecosystem development will continue, more innovation will happen, and traction will increase. Sure, price can do virtually anything on top of that dynamic, but over the longer haul, increased traction/adoption/mindshare yields increased price.

So whatever happens to price in the short/medium term, I'm considerably less "worried" than in late 2011. I think we're very much over the mindshare hurdle, where we do now have sufficient critical mass for the ecosystem to continue to grow over the longer-term. I said the same thing after the April 2013 crash...

I agree that overall risk has constantly diminished, but I would not say that existential risk is almost gone. There is a lot of risk with the software (still in beta) and the network. The whole system ist quite complicated and may contain points of failure that pop out unexpectedly.

Also bitcoin is still far away from mass adoption due to usability issues.

So there is no assurance that bitcoin may not fail in a culmination of sudden events that no one had on his radar. However bitcoin is a great innovation that is worthy to be believed in. So hold on.

Who feels it?  This morning I woke up, read what was going on, and felt a slight bit of panic creep into my mind.  Now, I could totally botch it this time around, but if my history with bitcoin tells me anything, I'm on the verge of significantly increasing my wealth again.  Still waiting for the psychological pressure I feel to get stronger, but it seems to be pretty clearly on its way.

Let's do this thing. See you at the $1000 party?

Did i hear $ 1000 party ?

 ;D

HIGH FIVE!

woot!! all aboard the 1k party train!

I dont think we are there yet...

If we are not there already we are pretty close. April 2011 really comes to mind here.

I still think we're a few months away, but with the late February exchange of about 100K Bitcoin in the span of an hour or so, someone is still accumulating big time at these prices.

Combined with these recent high-volume drops:
https://i.imgur.com/cQCKDv6.png

Plus I'm noticing the order books are starting to level out a bit more as well. I'm not sure that's a really a bearish or bullish sign, just thought it was interesting to note.

Also, just as a last indicator. I do remember quite vividly that during the bear run of June 2011 - November 2011 there were tons of people selling GPUs on the forums. Do we have a lot of people selling ASICs, yet? If not, I think we've got a while to go.

Haha, I love you guys.

TLDR: This time its different, a rational player would not sell an ASIC

The ASICs are a very good point, but GPUs captured part of their value in the market so it would make sense to sell them even if you mined more than your electricity costs. I dont know if the same economics apply to ASICs, lets say people panic sell ASICs and they are at a bargain price right now(1$), I would only buy if I feel that they could stay energy competitive for quite some time until the price bounces back so that I will be able to profit from a net energy POV, by the time it peaks again and mining becomes super profitable you will have much more energy efficient ASICs out there pushing the difficultly up, and you out of the market. and I think the market realizes this

http://www.express.de/image/view/2011/11/11/11291682,8565018,highRes,31ty2149.jpg


for sure $ 1k would be a reason to party bigtime now...

@OP,

are we there yet? :)

Because I feel just greed, but this greed is painful, because I temporarily ran out of fiat to buy moar, so yeah I feel pain, but not the kind of pain you're referring to :)

Definitely not. We're there if you have given up and would have serious doubts about buying more even if you had the funds.

More pain to come.

Not planning to sell, but definitely starting to feel the "Consolation Prize" pain...

Very well-put. I hadn't considered that.

Along those lines, there were some European GPU miners selling out first in 2011 (around August), mostly due to higher electricity costs. Also, there was ~1 week where I was mining at a loss technically with GPUs in 2011. I suppose it might come down to if these ASIC farms that are running and selling coin are also hoarding fiat. If so, it's possible that instead of selling when we approach the bottom, they'll do like I (and I assume others) did and instead actually spend money to buy coin.

I still think the people most fanatical about Bitcoin are the miners. They are the ones that didn't purchase coin under some crazy assumption that the price would inflate forever, instead they are very well-grounded in the financial aspects and I have to believe that as the price continues to fall, they'll eventually hoard more than they sell. Especially if second-generation ASICs are just around the corner.

Anyway, good point, I guess we'll see how it plays out.

ok, but that would be around $200. I seriously doubt we could go down there.

Would you care to share an unemotional logical explanation? Tell me why Bitcoin is worth 5 rather than 3 billion dollars, and why the marke will react to one different than the other?
Not trying to be an asshole but everyone here seems to base their analysis on market cycles which is basically an aggregation of human emotion and psychology throughout that cycle, you just put a number on it...

I think you got it right. Bitcoin doesnt have an intrinsic value. It will be what people will lead it to be. So if nobody want it anymore, it could go as low as 1$.
You cannot elaborate a logical price to target. Adoption is what drives the price. Fear and Euphorie add some fun to the game. But overall, you have to follow the adoption rate.

Bitcoin is not worth 5 or even 3 billion. The market cap is irrelevant, because if all bitcoins were sold at once, it'd drop to $10 or about that and that would bring its total cap to $200 mln at most. Same logic applies to any company's stock, so market cap calculations should be taken with a grain of salt.

But with each cycle of appreciation new money pours into bitcoin and although a lot of it is just looking for quick profits and withdraws when the price drops, some of it stays. These people who stay maintain a long-term look on it. They also don't chase the market, they buy at technical mid-term and long-term bottoms. If you buy at technical bottoms and fundamentals haven't changed (and they haven't), then your future pain will not be as bad as if you chased the price at the peak. That is kinda obvious.

But I must admit, that bitcoin is overvalued versus other altcoins, so some diversification is advisable. I posted my view on diversification here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=523153) if you're interested.

You are aware that:

• There is no alt coin that is not a knockoff of Bitcoin? The only other design of P2P payment that exists is Ripple / Hawala. And that is a couple 1000 years old.
• Bitcoin has the network effects? People invest in Bitcoin businesses, not in Foobar-Coin businesses. Why? Because people invest in Bitcoin businesses.

There is a good chance that in the 22. century, Bitcoin will be called the most important invention of the 21st. Calling it "overvalued" seems a bit short sighted.

I am aware that there is NXT that is written from scratch in a completely different language and has many more features than Bitcoin, so you should catch up on learning the crypto currency scene. Not meant to insult, but to raise awareness. Other alts are more or less a knockoff of bitcoin, that's true.

Network effect, I agree to some extent. But we all know how network effects on the internet is not something set in stone (netscape, myspace examples). The next 1-2 years will show who is short sighted. Keeping all eggs in one basket is never a wise idea.

NXT = USD 2.0

No idea what you're talking about. Only please don't raise the issue of distribution, it'd be utterly stupid, as NXT has better distribution than bitcoin now. Research the latest stats.

i agree with this one.

one thing that does need to get pointed out is that during the 260 bubble one of the chinese exchanges actually traded as high as 310ish (btcchina)

Bitcoin is not written in any particular language. Bitcoin is a protocol. The Satoshi implementation IS NOT Bitcoin. Slightly tweaking that protocol does not make it something truely new IMHO. NXT is a knockoff.

Well, Bitcoin protocol can't do decentralized exchange at this point, but NXT can. NXT can transfer funds just like Bitcoin + other new things that Bitcoin can't do. If you call something a knockoff just because the basic function is the same, well, then Bitcoin is a knockoff of traditional money transfer systems, and those are a knockoff of cowry shells that ancient people used to trade. But we all know that the main advantage of Bitcoin is it's decentralized (cowry shells were decentralized too by the way). Well, now you have a decentralized exchange in NXT, something that hasn't been done before and that Bitcoin doesn't have. That's far from slightly tweaking the protocol.

This is not part of the Bitcoin protocol, right. And it should not. But I am going to release a distributed exchange Fiat<->BTC within a few days:
https://github.com/zeroreserve/ZeroReserve

Not sure why you say it should not.

Good for you, the more solutions, the better.

Agreed.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KISS_principle

All-in-one solution is more suited to the KISS principle than having to deal with a few different solutions each performing only one function. From a user's perspective, that is. Of course, many users only need just one function, namely, money transfer and that's it. Well, to each his own.

You think we are over? I think its not over yet, i didnt see capitulation....Very bullish tho to see you think so

I was taken by significant surprise trailing the 2013 $250 run-up.  I sensed not near the capitulation, nor the price depression, that I would have expected for things to turn around.  Coming off the stabilized price of that and into another run-up lead me to believe that the late 2013 one would probably be larger than it ended up being.  Perhaps in retrospect we'll (or I'll) consider the 2013 $250 and $1200 peaks to be part of the same bubble artifact?

I guess I'm saying that I've NOT developed a sense for this stuff, or if I have then it is not a very well tuned one.  Oh well.  I'm not a trader and never expect to be for these reasons.

Bump

Honestly I don't think we're there yet. Why shouldn't we continue to see an ongoing downtrend into the 300s even?

Because most of those who sell do so because they speculate that they will be able to buy back later. If they can, that means they will be able to buy a lot more Bitcoin than they sold, which will break your premise (the bear market) at some point. If they cannot, your premise is broken already.

I think it is broken - the supply of weak hands is drying up.

Yeah, I think most of the weak hands just got slapped hard enough to teach them what the rest of us have already learned.  IOW, they've graduated.  Let us all welcome them with open arms.

Ok we arrived, its time to drive back home now!!  ;D

This was fun thanks hehe.

So what are peoples projections for the next bullrun? or the ATH for the next 12 months

Im thinking $5000 by autumn and an ATH of $7k -$8k in the next 12

I think we'll see a repetition of what we saw between November 2011 and January 2013, i.e. a slow ramping up with periods of stability and periods of spasms.

Unless of course some event pushes Bitcoin in either direction like a Dollar crisis or Bitcoin adoption of some very large online business (good) or a segmentation of the Internet (bad).

Back in 2011 I passively watched the decline. At 2$ there were heavy doomsaying on this forum. I read forceful arguments that nothing would prevent a further drop to 1$ and below. For the first time I felt a serious temptation to sell bitcoin to be able to double them at 1$.

A few days ago at 350$ I for the first time calculated at what price I would really be hurt if it continued falling.

Just another piece of data.

The next bubble could peak this July-August at $6000, collapsing to $3000 through year end. The 2015 trendline ends that year at $88000.

My model . .  .

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c)

So when exactly is maximum pain going to happen. Mid hundreds on BTC-e says I...

I don't feel any, do you?

Well not yet..... but I don't care worry about much of anything that is out of my control. We will see .....

Max pain applies to options markets.  Not applicable to bitcoin

::)

I know right....

The hubris I tell myself and I take from others, just too damn funny.

That was my projection back in April. I plan to refit the model to the price or market cap data at the next bubble peak or year-end 2014, whichever comes first. Meanwhile, I have steadily bought more bitcoin - the most recent purchase from my local ATM two days ago.

The model ...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c)

Whatever model you used, don't adjust it.  Burn it with fire.

Respectfully, intangible things do not combust. Nor would I destroy it if that is your meaning, rather I plan to adjust it given more data.

Please share when you do. I can't imagine that anyone can come up with a reasonable story about Bitcoin growth at this point.

the Log Log chart is now a thing of comedy in bitcoin history.

I would like to see a log chart with volume over time factored in as weight. Such a chart would put things in better perspective. This low volume activity dumping price is suspicious.

That's not a model, that's wishful thinking.
And stop using log scale ffs

Do you guys own any bitcoins? If you don't, it's no wonder you don't feel pain  ;D

Pedant.
Don't adjust it.  Kill it before it lays eggs.

Looking around at the forums, seems like we hit the point of maximum trolling.

That's a good sign, isn't it?

As portents go, that is in fact, good news.

Pain is strong now, capitulation incoming.

yep 92....

Paging master Proudhon.

Enough pain yet?

https://i.imgur.com/qhFU0Sm.png

According to the theory of maximum pain the low would be under the symbolic 266 frontier, just to panic everyone, but above 200 so that the sellers could't benefit their panic sells... So maybe just in the middle... 233 ? ;D

this sounds most likely of all - a huge and rapid spike too, so the most people get wiped out, and the fewest people can take a new position before the price shoots back up.

pahaha
that was in october

You're in 6 months all be like "capitulation is coming", "shake out weak hands", "this is the bottom"
when we are at 60$

Proudhon, show us the path of the Mighty Karhu

Looks like it was 219 on Bfinex

I hope this is the end of capitulation.
I would prefer some plateauing now...