point of maximum pain

[anu]

Well, Bitcoin protocol can't do decentralized exchange at this point,

This is not part of the Bitcoin protocol, right. And it should not. But I am going to release a distributed exchange Fiat<->BTC within a few days:
https://github.com/zeroreserve/ZeroReserve

Not sure why you say it should not.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KISS_principle

[devphp]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KISS_principle

All-in-one solution is more suited to the KISS principle than having to deal with a few different solutions each performing only one function. From a user's perspective, that is. Of course, many users only need just one function, namely, money transfer and that's it. Well, to each his own.

[proudhon]

[adpinbr]

You think we are over? I think its not over yet, i didnt see capitulation....Very bullish tho to see you think so

[tvbcof]

I'm not convinced we are there yet.  Myself and lots of other people have been around here for years and have been through this numerous times.  I think this is my 6th, but I've lost track.  I've developed a sense for the point of maximum pain and have profited pretty handsomely by being able to recognize it.  Granted, the market could be mature enough that these sorts of things are becoming somewhat less painful, but it doesn't quite feel like we're there yet.  In any event, I'm watching and waiting, because I'm going to try to be there (again) when many of you are feeling that pain.  Sorry, and thanks.

I was taken by significant surprise trailing the 2013 $250 run-up.  I sensed not near the capitulation, nor the price depression, that I would have expected for things to turn around.  Coming off the stabilized price of that and into another run-up lead me to believe that the late 2013 one would probably be larger than it ended up being.  Perhaps in retrospect we'll (or I'll) consider the 2013 $250 and $1200 peaks to be part of the same bubble artifact?

I guess I'm saying that I've NOT developed a sense for this stuff, or if I have then it is not a very well tuned one.  Oh well.  I'm not a trader and never expect to be for these reasons.

[adpinbr]

Bump

[PirateHatForTea]

Honestly I don't think we're there yet. Why shouldn't we continue to see an ongoing downtrend into the 300s even?

[anu]

Honestly I don't think we're there yet. Why shouldn't we continue to see an ongoing downtrend into the 300s even?

Because most of those who sell do so because they speculate that they will be able to buy back later. If they can, that means they will be able to buy a lot more Bitcoin than they sold, which will break your premise (the bear market) at some point. If they cannot, your premise is broken already.

I think it is broken - the supply of weak hands is drying up.

[proudhon]

Honestly I don't think we're there yet. Why shouldn't we continue to see an ongoing downtrend into the 300s even?

Because most of those who sell do so because they speculate that they will be able to buy back later. If they can, that means they will be able to buy a lot more Bitcoin than they sold, which will break your premise (the bear market) at some point. If they cannot, your premise is broken already.

I think it is broken - the supply of weak hands is drying up.

Yeah, I think most of the weak hands just got slapped hard enough to teach them what the rest of us have already learned.  IOW, they've graduated.  Let us all welcome them with open arms.

[Mr. Net]

Ok we arrived, its time to drive back home now!! 

This was fun thanks hehe.

[adpinbr]

So what are peoples projections for the next bullrun? or the ATH for the next 12 months

[dreamspark]

So what are peoples projections for the next bullrun? or the ATH for the next 12 months

Im thinking $5000 by autumn and an ATH of $7k -$8k in the next 12

[anu]

So what are peoples projections for the next bullrun? or the ATH for the next 12 months

I think we'll see a repetition of what we saw between November 2011 and January 2013, i.e. a slow ramping up with periods of stability and periods of spasms.

Unless of course some event pushes Bitcoin in either direction like a Dollar crisis or Bitcoin adoption of some very large online business (good) or a segmentation of the Internet (bad).

[db]

Back in 2011 I passively watched the decline. At 2$ there were heavy doomsaying on this forum. I read forceful arguments that nothing would prevent a further drop to 1$ and below. For the first time I felt a serious temptation to sell bitcoin to be able to double them at 1$.

A few days ago at 350$ I for the first time calculated at what price I would really be hurt if it continued falling.

Just another piece of data.

[SlipperySlope]

So what are peoples projections for the next bullrun? or the ATH for the next 12 months

The next bubble could peak this July-August at $6000, collapsing to $3000 through year end. The 2015 trendline ends that year at $88000.

My model . .  .

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c

[DieJohnny]

So when exactly is maximum pain going to happen. Mid hundreds on BTC-e says I...

[devphp]

I don't feel any, do you?

[DieJohnny]

I don't feel any, do you?

Well not yet..... but I don't care worry about much of anything that is out of my control. We will see .....

[twiifm]

Max pain applies to options markets.  Not applicable to bitcoin

[NotLambchop]

...
The next bubble could peak this July-August at $6000...