point of maximum pain

[proudhon]

I'm not convinced we are there yet.  Myself and lots of other people have been around here for years and have been through this numerous times.  I think this is my 6th, but I've lost track.  I've developed a sense for the point of maximum pain and have profited pretty handsomely by being able to recognize it.  Granted, the market could be mature enough that these sorts of things are becoming somewhat less painful, but it doesn't quite feel like we're there yet.  In any event, I'm watching and waiting, because I'm going to try to be there (again) when many of you are feeling that pain.  Sorry, and thanks.

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[rjp55]

Confirmed.

[y3804]

I'm not convinced we are there yet.  Myself and lots of other people have been around here for years and have been through this numerous times.  I think this is my 6th, but I've lost track.  I've developed a sense for the point of maximum pain and have profited pretty handsomely by being able to recognize it.  Granted, the market could be mature enough that these sorts of things are becoming somewhat less painful, but it doesn't quite feel like we're there yet.  In any event, I'm watching and waiting, because I'm going to try to be there (again) when many of you are feeling that pain.  Sorry, and thanks.

What is point of max pain? Could it be described as... the floor?

[IIOII]

Sorry, and thanks.

No need to feel sorry (well actually I doubt you do feel sorry ). I like your humorous negativism when everyone else is partying.

Following the crowd is always easier than questioning it. So if you profit from it it's well deserved. Keep it up!

[IIOII]

What is point of max pain? Could it be described as... the floor?

I think... more like... the sewer.

[y3804]

What is point of max pain? Could it be described as... the floor?

I think... more like... the sewer.

Yeahh.. so the point where everyone panic sells and there is no buy support. Analogous to a flash crash?

I'm not knowledgeable about the economical terminology of the phenomenon, but that def. will happen. At some point, there is a psychological breakdown and you simply 'need' to sell.. This is about to happen in the next few days.

That said, I'm not a veteran investor, but I know that if the CHINA ban is not refuted, then CHINA will do everything in its power to transfer to fiat, even if that means double digits.

Only five to ten days left..

[dreamspark]

Be sure to let us know when that point is so we can profit handsomely with you

[ErisDiscordia]

Sorry, and thanks.

I like this sentiment 

So...will you tell us when you think the point of maximum pain is upon us? This is only the second bubble I am observing and I don't feel like I'm very good at gauging it. Fortunately I don't trade on my hunches

[damnek]

The larger marketcap and a multitude of exchanges should dampen the exuberance a bit. The final run on the last top was less extreme than the ones we've seen before, and therefore I'm expecting that the same will hold for the final part of this decline.

[anu]

I'm not convinced we are there yet.  Myself and lots of other people have been around here for years and have been through this numerous times.  I think this is my 6th, but I've lost track.  I've developed a sense for the point of maximum pain and have profited pretty handsomely by being able to recognize it.  Granted, the market could be mature enough that these sorts of things are becoming somewhat less painful, but it doesn't quite feel like we're there yet.  In any event, I'm watching and waiting, because I'm going to try to be there (again) when many of you are feeling that pain.  Sorry, and thanks.

Everyone listening to Proudhon: He said he made a lot of money above. In October 2011 he told everyone to short and predicted $1 before the price would really start to fall (look up the old threads). Either he was actually buying or he lost money.

[proudhon]

Obviously, there's no real science to it.  It's just sort of a feeling I developed from reading as much commentary from participants as possible, and by assessing my own psychology.  In fact, paying pretty close attention to the pain I feel as the market declines has been pretty insightful.  I like to think of myself as a hodler, but when I've started seriously thinking, "maybe it's time I get out, because this is getting scary...", I've managed to take stock of that, clam down, and be remarkably close to picking and re-entering at the bottom.  I've learned that emotional investing can be a real killer, and I've been most successful when I fight against what are very real and very powerful emotional responses to being a market participant.

[damnek]

Obviously, there's no real science to it.  It's just sort of a feeling I developed from reading as much commentary from participants as possible, and by assessing my own psychology.  In fact, paying pretty close attention to the pain I feel as the market declines has been pretty insightful.  I like to think of myself as a hodler, but when I've started seriously thinking, "maybe it's time I get out, because this is getting scary...", I've managed to take stock of that, clam down, and be remarkably close to picking and re-entering at the bottom.  I've learned that emotional investing can be a real killer, and I've been most successful when I fight against what are very real and very powerful emotional responses to being a market participant.

Absolutely. I started trading because of bitcoin and it took me almost a year to grasp that concept. At that point I became successful.

[zoinky]

The trend is your friend.

[jl2012]

I'm not convinced we are there yet.  Myself and lots of other people have been around here for years and have been through this numerous times.  I think this is my 6th, but I've lost track.  I've developed a sense for the point of maximum pain and have profited pretty handsomely by being able to recognize it.  Granted, the market could be mature enough that these sorts of things are becoming somewhat less painful, but it doesn't quite feel like we're there yet.  In any event, I'm watching and waiting, because I'm going to try to be there (again) when many of you are feeling that pain.  Sorry, and thanks.

As the overall volatility of the market is decreasing, I believe it will be less painful.

[proudhon]

I'm not convinced we are there yet.  Myself and lots of other people have been around here for years and have been through this numerous times.  I think this is my 6th, but I've lost track.  I've developed a sense for the point of maximum pain and have profited pretty handsomely by being able to recognize it.  Granted, the market could be mature enough that these sorts of things are becoming somewhat less painful, but it doesn't quite feel like we're there yet.  In any event, I'm watching and waiting, because I'm going to try to be there (again) when many of you are feeling that pain.  Sorry, and thanks.

As the overall volatility of the market is decreasing, I believe it will be less painful.

I think that's right.  Though the market is still pretty volatile, so I'm expecting the same kind of painful capitulation events that are felt pretty widely and personally.  Obviously, I could be wrong, and might miss the mark on this one, but bitcoin has been pretty consistent and reasonably predictable in this regard.

[megadeth]

Waiting for Proudhon calling the bottom.

[Dalmar]

Waiting for Proudhon calling the bottom.

Confirmed.

[Ibian]

Does there have to be pain? With world leaders recognizing bitcoin enough to bother writing actual legislation for it, it's no longer just a geeky nerd internet thing. Eventually we will switch from "lol internet money" to "real world economy". We might be somewhere in the middle right now and if so, there is less reason to fear everything falling apart.

[cbeast]

We just need to get rid of these Mt Gox model exchanges and switch to brokerages because exchanges are very risky. That will foster distributed exchanges to be developed because they are less susceptible to panic and volatility.

[proudhon]

We just need to get rid of these Mt Gox model exchanges and switch to brokerages because exchanges are very risky. That will foster distributed exchanges to be developed because they are less susceptible to panic and volatility.

Yes, this.  It's happening, and the transition is clearly affecting the market.  Still a ways to go on that one, but with Gox finally out of the way this process is well underway.