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I have always believed that a quality forecast in sports betting is extremely important. More precisely, all elements of the gaming system are important in their own way: risk management, discipline with emotion control and strategy. But if you cannot generate a quality forecast with a high percentage of success, then it is unlikely that emotion control and discipline will help you. Risk management and money management are also unlikely to help you win. All this will only allow you to lose your money a little slower, but will not help you win. The key factor in winning is a quality forecast. However, creating a quality forecast is always a problem of additional information and better processing of this information. Write what you think about a quality forecast, its role in a gaming system and the methods of its construction.

One thing I've noticed in many years of gambling is that quality forecast does not guarantee wins, it may increase your confidence in your bets, but in the end, luck and grace decides your fate.

Having quality forecast depends highly on your knowledge about the teams in contention, their goal scoring, square play, attacking, defensive and even their individual players abilities and even teams form coupled with historic data of their recent meetings. These would enable you make sound judgement from carefully thought out facts, but in the end it's never a guarantee for a win, but of course increases your chances.

For a long-term profits or net profits, it's rare to come by from just forecast except for the exceptionally lucky ones who are very few. Most people who achieve this long-term profitability are those who have insider information on fixed matches, mostly from less popular leagues. Most random gamblers are in net losses

So a user should make a quality one. Aside from winnings from forecasting if a user got a mouth too, he can also uses the forecast to open up channel or vlog that can be seen by users and follow his same betting choices. He got wins from gambling he might also win from marketing or views as a professional influencer ont that field. Id saw some who are doing these and some of them are probably earning besides gambling too.

The quality level of the forecast is mostly affected by the accuracy and reliability of the information that is available to the bettor. Well, it's clear to anyone that there is no more accurate and reliable information than inside information. Thus, it is highly likely that any randomly selected long-term successful bettor is not an analytical genius, but an ordinary insider. However, I have already written about this in one of the previous threads on a similar topic. By the way, a systematic insider is not a random person, it's a person embedded in a match-fixing system.

I've joined premium forecasters in the past and believe me they have been accurate for some time, but later a new change begins that in a complete week all they forcasted went wrong and people started leaving the channel.

This made me believe that there is no expert anywhere, what will play out is not been determined by the forcaster but those in action, and the result will either be right or wrong.

Have fun gambling but don't expect forcaster prediction to always be right, this should only boost your confidence in the bet but the outcome isn't in your disposal, risk what you can and have fun.

Forecast in sports betting is important so we can win. But we should realize that any forecast will not be accurate especially if there is a change in the match. The forecast will also change and make us lose the money.

You can follow any premium forecast you want by paying a high fee. But that will not help you to always win because we are gamble with our money and there will be a risk that we should accept.

Yes, we want the win from our bet but we must consider that forecast is just forecast and we should not rely on that. We can place our bet based on the forecast we get but it is better to let it happen without think too much. Having fun in gambling will be better so we don't expect anything from gambling but the fact we may just lose our money.

You're right but it doesn't really give you a 100% of wins you know, sometimes they may be accurate but a forecast will always be a forecast with a tendency of 50/50 returns.
So in being a long profitable sports bettor you don't need to focus on forecasts but rather learn to manage your bankroll and like you said having control is also important Regardless without a quality forecast you can get a win.

For me I personally don't believe that anyone can fully forecast any thing as regards gambling. They are all just but a speculation. When we make predictions in gambling, we just try our best to use as much data present to us in other to make sure we have a upper hand in our bets. Having a channel or group where you claim to be good in forecasting bets to me makes no sense. You might be lucky but not all the time. If we take a look as some of the recent games in the football world, yes we all might have expected some better games and bet on the bets team but then it didn't turn out as it seemed.

A forecast is a forecast, nothing but a prediction still, it's left for you to use your head though, if you risk too much all because the forecast is from strong source you will lose all your money.

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Even if a forecast is from a realiable source you must still use your head and risk only what you can afford to lose, because at times they will be wrong, games do change when you don't expect.

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I am not totally against this because this is better than gamblers who don't know what they are doing, some gamblers don't know how to do their own research on sports before they start betting, using forecast can help here but still doesn't guarantee that you will win.

They have the telegram group for no two reasons than to make money from the people that are joining their group. They do have special subscriptions for those that wants to use betting to make money. The person will pay them and they will be giving the person the matches he can bet on. If someone pay for something like that, the person will later be disappointed and feel like they have scammed him. All money someone has paid to be winning matches that I know always end up as scam.

All the time that I used martingale, it was on roulettes. I noticed the strategy is not good at all. My plan was 5 consecutive wins while starting each with $1 and ending in in $10. If I have lost the whole $22 dollars, I will stop and wait for next week. I won the first time but I stopped the third week after two weeks consecutive losses and I stopped using martingale. If you continue with martingale, you will increase the money and it will be of higher amount and of greater loss if you lose the next round.

How would you get a quality forecast is the problem because it will only be temporary. In gambling, no matter the extra miles that you go to see how you can be successful in profit making from gambling, you will not achieve it rather the opposite will be the case.

Only gamble for fun with little an the t wouldn't have any effect on your emotions whether you lose or win your bet. Luck plays a major role in gambling and nothing else.

When we talks about quality forecast this shows how informative you could be in terms of gambling beit sports betting or casino games, whenever you are that grounded it gives you basic edge to at least stands out between nearly having a win whenever you gamble or play casino games. For this, the total dependency or reliability of winning a game depends on whether your luck is about to shine or not, and when the luck is there then winning is sure but most importantly your forecast is light way to your winning in gambling but it doesn't guaranteed every forecast must be that productive or resourceful at all times. Therefore, this is what still makes gambling remains a game of probability and chances.

Just like you rightly said, nothing beats quality forecast in betting as every other thing depends on it. Quality forecast entails a lot analysis including injuries, match priority, fixtures and even head-to-head analysis of both teams because there is something about their past meetings that can influence the outcome of the match. For instance, any time Barcelona plays Valencia and Athletic Bilboa, I rarely play Barcelona to win because both teams are always pain in the ass of Barcelona. There are many factors that a bettor must put into consideration to arrive at quality forecast and by extension, better gambling outcome.

It was not just a problem, but really impossible to get. Even though we have been gambling for several years, there is no way to make it perfect. Spending more time on analyzing team performance could help in making decisions about whom to bet with. But this never ensures winning, we also need some luck.

That is why we don't desperately think that we can make a lot of money in gambling. We can win, yes, but to make all bets win, it is merely impossible. The best thing we can do is not overthink and accept reality.

Analytical ability of generating quality games on forecasts is a successful promising role for players achieve winning if not in a short term long term may not pass by.

Emotional control helps for self composure in case of getting unexpected outcomes while discipline has it role of controlling your gambling thrill so that you will always stick to your budgets if you have one but if you don't have a gambling budgets or plans, disciplines will ignite you to be cautious so that you don't bet above your emotional control regarded that not every gamblers do have drastic gambling plans to curtail their bankroll management.

I am okay if I forecast multiple games like 10 games above and only one or two games fail from my forecast, this gives me solace after getting angry for it winning. It gives me that solace that afterall I got many of my forecast correct and I think that should be the way to know quality forecast. If you are having this closeness to winning then if you put more effort you will get the desired winning result. But where you have forecast different times and it doesn't get close to winning, you need to restrategize your strategy. You can't be a constant winner without having near misses. For example, there is a gambler who stopped patronizing pay groups because they have been failing him but now he went back to the days he was having near misses and built that courage to work on his forecast and analysis. Now, he has more winnings than loses.

I know experienced players who make almost correct predictions in their local championship. I can't name these people, although their fame is not worth world significance, but these are people directly connected with football. Those who practically manage the future team know each player, his health, and the players' abilities; in my country, they also resort to bookmakers. I know that this is unfair, but if such cases exist in one place, it does not mean that they do not exist somewhere else. I am not talking about fixed matches, but I think that standing "with one foot in the game" and the other making bets also does not deserve respect.

I always like going through different predictions from different websites, and then from gamblers, too. I always look at the sports chat on Stake.com because sometimes there are good predictors there, although I don't really follow their bets. I just use them to try to come up with my own forecast because it's really tough just going through news and updates, which sometimes are misleading, like injury reports and others. Many times, I became a victim of a player who is not going to play according to sports news, but suddenly, he will play.

Using every possible way to increase our chance of winning is the best way to do it. The odds will not always be right. They will have their favorites, but it doesn't mean it will go that way. I have 2 wins in the NBA playoffs now from both heavy underdogs and it was damn worth the effort.

Some sports have only two possible outcomes win or loss for a party. But considering that even if you predict correct more than 50% which means you're good at predictions, it's still possible to be a loser because the odds aren't your friend.

Not only do you need edge over the deductions but also the odds. So I'd say it's very much a long shot for anyone to expect winning forever or retaining profit for long. If you have a good run, enjoy it with a cash out. That's all. Don't put too much money in a d watch matches you like. The rest is just speculation because the actual amount of bettors that can retain profit is impossibly low for active accounts in the long run.

Whatever things you do even if you follow those things you know that can help you to increase your chance to win still it will not give us 100% guarantee to became profitable always on sportsbetting. There are situations which is questionable and hard to predict that's why even if we are so knowledgeable sports bettor there's still a huge chance that our forecast is wrong and we lost our bets.

Lots of articles is help but I don't rely this much and just get some idea about good teams to bet, but didn't expect a lot to win especially that odds is deceiving and chances that result will came different is there.

I guess due to those situation we better erase those thoughts to win always on the bets we place. That's why I rather choose to calm my self and if luck came then be it.

I do understand your point. However one thing you also have to understand is the fact that your winnings are not a 100% dependent on your ability to strategize or your ability to forecast bets either. They are only contributors to your final chances of winning. No matter the game, you still require luck to pull off a win as long as it is a gambling activity especially in cases where the winning chances are thin.

Luck is very important in gambling because even when you try to manage risks, you may seem smart at first but you could be shocked later on to discover that you end up in losses if a net sum is done.

Let's just say gambling is funny, if say for example you support Arsenal FC and they happen to play... Don't use emotions and back your favourite team, if your gut feeling says they are losing do go for the money and bet against them, I repeat don't use emotions lol.

On the issue of profitability, well let's just say we have people that know their sport and make money from it...then there are others that use mathematics to make money and btw this is deemed illegal by some bookie's, otherwise it's not everything about sporting knowledge of becoming profitable ::)

I have good time while betting but it is filled with losses. My losses are much more than my winnings but as I bet more than gamble and bet not frequently but on matches like the yesterday Champions League, I was able to win but a little more than my losses. What I noticed is that if I bet frequently, I lose more often. What I know is that this year can still end up in me losing more than winning while gambling. Gambling is unpredictable is what I will say and gamblers should not expect money from gambling.

This was just the kind of scenario I found myself in during last night's game between Arsenal and PSG of which Arsenal failed to progress by a conceded lone goal. While I actually hinted in this part was because a friend of mine during the evening before the game asked the opinion of all of us seated in parliament, which to between both teams to bet on. I kept mute knowing that I would have easily supported Arsenal and am sure he would have gone with it, but am sure at the end of game, I felt relief in not placing that bet because I would have naturally bet on Arsenal to beat PSG but boy was I wrong...lol.

That's why I think emotional placing a bet on any team, rather than to go with statistics and facts is a great way to not be a long term profitable sports bettor/gambler and it would tell sooner than later.

The ability to determine a winning bet is the most important thing in betting, you can manage your budget well, observe all the risks, but you are right that this will only help you lose your deposit more slowly, without winning bets. And this can only depend on the player, I don’t even know if this can be taught, this must be achieved independently, it is either given to the player or not. On the other hand, if the player has this property but does not know how to manage the budget and takes unnecessary risks, then he will also not be able to achieve earnings in gambling, so in order to make a profit in such a complex matter, the player must have all these qualities.

Go and use tipser websites, not temporary channels on Telegram.
There are plenty of those who have been around for more than 4-5 years and you can check all their prediction and rate of success, with stats and everything. not just people who throw away predictions like machine gun fire.


How can a bookie who takes sports bet even discover you're using mathematics to bet?
Do you actually have any examples of a bookie banning someone because they used statistics to bet on a team or event?

No doubt. Nomatter how much good or highily quality with logical strategies of forecasting of games in gambling, it only optimizes the anxieties of your expectations to win while your efforts remains unguaranteed to provide your expectations.
Winning in gambling Is never pegged on hardworking but luck except for the skillful games which you don't contend with the house edge but a one on one physical games that're played with friends.

Isn't talking about it kind of encouraging someone out there to go for it ?? When the bookie holds on to their funds wouldn't you feel guilt being the person that held the container of gasoline while giving a lighter to the other guy...

And I know you know what am talking about  :) Arbitrage betting...

just check the scam accusation board. casinos that use sports betting providers like Betby ban and restrict players all the time for "sports fraud". if you are arbitrage betting/value betting or you have a consistent edge against them you are gone, if they don't ban you, they limit you to like $2 bets.
as for how they can tell you are using math to bet, they have shit ton of data that they feed into their algorithm to find people doing this, and with AI, it's even easier to detect now.

Neither emotion, discipline or quality forecast will help you win. You need to ask yourself how do you identify a quality forecast from one that is of less quality? The answer is of no way. Our forecast is uncertain even when we think it is of great quality. Gambling is luck so whenever we trust our instinct we should also expect that a loss is still possible. Emotions and discipline might triggers a safe way of gambling, yet it doesn't still guarantee you  a win, although it helps in reducing the risk we take.

What is certain is that for things like this I believe that things like this are still speculative. it is true that in the end the predictions and applications that we make of course make a very good thing especially for the measure of self-confidence. But it cannot be denied that until now gambling remains a condition where luck is an element that will not be defeated by anything so we cannot let go of it even if it is in a bet that we know we have to be active there.

For me, such things as predictions etc. are just like suggestions that we make to convince ourselves that in the end gambling can still run with this and the final result depends on whether the suggestions we make are accompanied by luck or not.

This is a very big offense in sports but I usually have a feeling that they don’t really exist much and it will make winning games by bettors very hard and the few that always have a consistent wins got that mostly by luck and not an insider information. I think this also happens to be the reason why players are not allowed to gamble so that they don’t play in favour of the games they’ve bet on. Match fixing is a game that happens mostly in this unpopular leagues and don’t usually happen in the populous leagues we know about because of the gravity of the offence. That means that forecast is not enough to be a consistent bettor but having a more insider information will make you a more consistent winner than just basing it on merely luck.

Talking about on general aspect on which we do know that luck factor will always be the deciding factor for us to win but in comparing on how much luck we do need with sports betting than with casino games on which there's that significant differences too on which even we do speak about forecast then it will be that will relevant on the moment that you do deal up with sports betting. It is really just that some bettors do just simply skip out or having that not serious approach towards it and just that focusing a little bit of information on which at the time that they do sees out that its enough then they will be able to make out some finalization in regarding into their choices on which this is where each bettor will differ out when it comes to this manner. Long term profitability will be basing up on different factors on how a bettor will be able to choose up his bets.

In overall, cant be able to deny that luck factor will always be having that huge role when it comes on winning up a bet. Profitability will be that depending or basing up on how careful you are on choosing up your bets and with applying out some analysis into it on which it will be always that significant. If you do find yourself having that good winning rate with the current strategies that you are using then better stick into that.
Each bettor does have its own approach and on the actions that they are taking basing up on their decisioning.

If someone has a method for making quality forecasts, they will never announce it publicly. Because this is the key to success in betting. Who would want to reveal their secrets? Of course, no one in their right mind would do this.

But I have serious doubts about the existence of such working methods, because for a quality forecast it is necessary to take into account and analyze a large flow of information, which may sometimes be insufficient. That is, when forecasting, you can miss one seemingly insignificant detail, but it is this insignificant information that will radically change the outcome of the event.

I would say this: give me a forecasting method with 100% probability and I will become the master of bets. :)

Spot on @Zwei the evidence is there everywhere, am pretty sure a human too can read between the lines what's happening on the players profile...and the pattern can tell if a user is arbitrage betting/value betting .

Just out of curiosity, stompix do you sport bet no offence  ::)

We don't even have a reliable resource in gambling were a good prediction will be made, so actually if there is anybody who claims to be one it should be highly neglected but the problem is the unimaginable extent some gamblers can go because I want to share what a gambler did and also to no if you have seen a gambler like that before because I saw someone who use a million in my country fiat to purchase a game online with a high belief that the source is very realistic but I disagree with the person, so is that really the extent people can go just to gamble knowing that if the game lose they will not only loss the money but also the ones they are using to play the purchased game.

Why not ?
Here I have another question that do those who have won by betting on sports for a long term or those who bet on sports most of the time know about the future? Or are they astrologers who know everything about the result of any match?

I am asking like this, because there are many matches where the weak team defeats the team that is in the best form or the champion team at that time. It has happened to me many times that I have chosen the strong team for betting due to my confidence thinking that the weak team is the one and later unfortunately due to bad luck the weak team wins that match and I lose. If the same thing happens to a long term sportbet winner, then of course he can also lose his entire fund. There is nothing surprising in this.

In my opinion, in order to make a quality forecast regarding sports betting, you need to have information that other people who participate in gambling do not have.

For example, you may personally know the players of a sports team or the coach of a sports team. This will allow you to receive exclusive information first-hand.

Is it possible to make a quality forecast by receiving information from the Internet? In my opinion, this is impossible.

It is unlikely that you are able to analyze information better and faster than a bookmaker. Especially if the bookmaker uses a company of professional analysts, artificial intelligence, etc. In my opinion, the lack of exclusive first-hand information about the real state of affairs in a sports team makes you the same player as everyone else. At the same time, sports betting differs very little in terms of effectiveness from games based solely on luck, such as roulette.

Of course you're right on this thoughts, it's absolutely nothing to have all the discipline and the rest of the gambling related considering for gamble in place without food ability to forecast or predict a close to success matches, if you can predict better your likely to make more money, have more fun in gambling than someone who is only disciplined with strategy. It's more about having a better advantage with information and giving better chance to predict games, as long as you're predicting better you will win better.

You need to read, understand, watch and listen to information
s that can help you gain more understanding about teams and how well they can perform against it other on e yiu know this you will keep winning and predicting good games.

In sports betting, mastering the skills of predicting games is paramount to having an enjoyable gambling experience. If you don't know how to make match predictions, you might be frustrated. Emotional control, money management, and so on will not be attained except the gambler understands how sports betting works. These days, it is not difficult to get fairly sound predictions since numerous sports prediction sites offer these services. Since money is involved, gamblers should focus more on developing prediction strategies that will help them win games. Gambling could be less entertaining if losing becomes consistent.

Of course, a good forecast can only be distinguished from a bad one after the fact. Simply put, this can only be done after the game, before the game the quality of the forecast is unclear. On the other hand, we can evaluate the quality of the method that creates successful forecasts based on statistics. Of course, there are no forecasts with 100% accuracy, because the outcome of matches can be influenced by a variety of and often seemingly insignificant events. These can also be events that are almost impossible to predict, such as player injuries. Sometimes the result of a match is even difficult to associate with any factor. A person or a team may simply not be in the best shape. Or these may be some secondary irrational factors.

Only on a long run can one determine the quality of a forecast. Well, many person can consider it to be series of luck since there are times we get lucky to have winning streaks. We cannot differentiate between luck or the quality of forecast. However, making forecast is very necessary because it gives us more chances of winning our bets. And yeah, you are right, there is no 100% accurate forecast.

Creating a quality forecast is one of the difficult thing to do as it will only boost your ego and moral, making you believe you gonna win big but may not win big. There is no quality forecast till a game is won. What you see as quality forecast may not be what you think it is. Sometimes you just need to make some random selection as your heart pleases and you may win. Quality forecast is just like over analysing game and building false hope.

Arbitrage is an illegal practice, and it's not a betting strategy!
You can't have arbitrage when there are no odds that you can take advantage of so you can't apply this strategy to all games, making it more of an exploit than a strategy.
Again, I haven't yet seen a mathematical strategy that would allow you to bet and at the same time be discovered by bookies.


I have a weird feeling is way more than you do!
I asked you to show me a strategy based on math that you used to bet and that can be discovered and has been banned by bookies.
Arbitrage is not a strategy is an exploit.

So before going to low level shitty attacks like this, how about you back up your claims first!
I'm still waiting for a math strategy banned by bookies, show me the link to one of it, can you do it?

Great! It will be nice to see you compete with other like minded pundits in different pools on the forum, like walk the talk   8)

AHHH Stake...I see.

Let's not make this a war of words and if you interpreted that as an attack on you my apologies, and don't miss quote me, I didn't call it a strategy btw... I simply said we have people that use mathematics to be profitable in sport's betting and that's how we arrived at arbitrage! I guess we were on different pages 📄 of the book.

I wasn't strong in sports betting, but I think that if I was aware of sports events on this topic, knew all the teams and their players, then I would try myself in betting, and I would take this occupation very seriously.
But I'm sure that I would not try to bet without AI advice. For example, Deepseek. Recently here on the forum, someone showed how much AI can predict the result of a given match, analyzing past meetings and other different factors. And it was a little impressive.

You started the war of words, and you started pointing fingers and acting all high and mighty, so I'm not misquoting anything, you accuse me of not gambling like being stupid and not knowing what I'm talking about, then you threw in some out-of-place phrases, and now you say let's not take things literally. Guess what two letters I have for this!


So what is this supposed to mean and be careful with those misinterpretations!
And till then, do show me that math, I'm really curious about it, after all it's a discussion forum, right, are you hiding your strategy that made you richer than Crasus?

Emotion control and discipline can still help us.  If we are unable to get a clear or dependable forecast, our emotion control and risk management will prevent us from betting thus saving us from losses.  In gambling, it is more important to avoid unnecessary losses than a chance winnings.  This way we are able to gamble for a longer time without replenishing our bankroll, thus saving us from negative effect of hasty betting.


I agree, risk management and money management won't help us to win, it isn't the purpose of these managements anyway.  Its purpose is the efficient cashflows of our activity.  To ensure that we are not do waste betting, avoid overbetting, and make sure that our gambling activity won't affect our financial status negatively.


Quality forecasting is truly needed if we want to enhance our chance of winning,  we can either learn to do it ourselves or find reliable sources, but I would recommend the earlier since knowing how to do it ourselves ensures that we only make sports predictions that will benefit us.


How about you do you have any guideline for quality forecasting?

I would go further: “You cannot claim to have made a good prediction earlier (before the game started), even if the game is won.” Suppose you have made a prediction that you believe to be a good prediction. And suppose the game is won.

Does that give you confidence that your original prediction was indeed a good prediction? Isn’t there a chance that you were just lucky? Could it be a coincidence?

The famous writer, philosopher, and trader Nassim Taleb has a great book called Fooled by Randomness. It describes exactly such situations. In my opinion, you can classify your prediction as a good prediction only if you have a competitive advantage over other players.

If you cannot clearly articulate what exactly your competitive advantage is over other players, then you need to admit that you are not capable of making good predictions on sports events.

arbitrage is definitely not illegal, it's just against the terms of service.
there are a few bookies that are okay with it, some not so much, and it is a betting strategy, thousands of bettors use it daily.

there is no strategy that can be applied to all games, there is none. and i wouldn't call it an exploit as you are not cheating or doing anything unfair, you are just taking advantage of the odds on soft bookies.

i'm not sure i undertande what you exactly mean by mathematical strategy? can you give me an example? becasue as far as i know, arbitrage is a mathematical strategy, same as value betting.

You already mentioned the most important thing about a quality forecaster, good forecasters utilizes every important factors relating to the games they want to predict, they can even go extra miles to look at past old records and they also apply every possible strategy carefully so that they don't lose back to back. Being long term profitable in gambling or betting is by luck and only a few bettors enjoy that favour, some bettors can still be good forecasters but might not be profitable on the long run. Someone have complained before that no matter how hard they try in doing analysis, they are not so lucky as expected.

For those long time sports bettor or simply having the experience or with those who are profitable, then we can be able to say that these forecast will be something that significant or something that it is very helpful or even lets say that you will be needing it up for you in order to have that good analysis with your betting choices. We do know that on the time that we do make out some picking with our favorite team/players then of course you will be needing up that significant information on which in relation into their past games and the outcomes, the team/player against with and other history on which you do need to know for you to be able to make out some comparison. The good thing about on betting on sports is that you can apply some strategy into it and not really just that trying out to pick up without having any consideration on applying relevant information on which you could be able to obtain on different sources or simply at the time that you do make out some searches. It will be totally basing up on your actions or approach on how you do acquire such information on which you could be able to apply into your analysis and having that edge or good odds on winning up the bet. Profitability will be pertaining on how you do make up some application towards your betting. If you do find out that its effective then why would be trying to look for another? Most bettors or experienced ones will be that able to determine on how important with these forecast. It might be that neglected by some but you do able to see its importance at the time that you do hover yourself on sports betting. You will be seeing its significance or being useful when dealing up on information gathering.

In my opinion, this is pointless. I mean, you can't rely on good predictions in sports betting because, no matter how experienced and knowledgeable you are about the competing teams, the players' playing style, and the tactics adopted by the coach, it only works by chance.

Every match has its own unique circumstances. Even the most famous players in the world can have poor matches due to certain circumstances. Also, very big teams often lose to much less famous teams, so it's difficult to rely on data for predictions.
It all depends on luck and sometimes inspiration.

When you win constantly without actually learning anything about the match then that’s luck but you also need to give credit to yourself if you have done enough research and have given enough effort which is why you are winning.
There’s no 100% because we can’t be guaranteed that our forecast is correct until after the event has taken place and we see the end results.

In gambling what you have to understand is that gambling is all about risk, neither you learn how to control your emotions or not in gambling, someone that will lose, will definitely lose in the gambling, from my views, anyone who wants to forecasts game most calm it temperatures and forecasts in good condition, but a process whereby you forecasts game with pressure and durance you will end up losing everything, so for my understanding we have to understand that gambling is all about luck and risk, the measures you take in the gambling and win, another person might take same measures and lose, so gambling strategies are not same and it never be the same.

It's possible to be profitable in the long run, but you'll never know if you're the profitable one until you get there.

It's like going into a tunnel, not knowing how long it is. When you come out on the other side you'll know if it was long, short, or maybe too long for you to handle ;)

The only way to do this is to play and see how you do. After 100+ bets you'll know if you're profitable or not. The deal is, you can't rely on a single bet or a single month because good gamblers also have ups and downs. The deal is to be able to tell that you're in profit after 100+ games, not after 5 because 5 don't mean shit.

In sports betting, if you're knowledgeable about the subject, you could say that every day there is at least one match across all disciplines that is reliable (or more likely to happen). And it doesn’t necessarily have to be the one that the statistics on betting sites highlight. A good bettor should be able to make decisions based on their own criteria.

We saw this with the discussion about the new Pope. I mentioned that it was an extremely difficult bet to win because it was a blind wager. In that case, it didn't matter what the news or statistics said.

Therefore, it is possible to be a bettor who earns long-term profits if you study sports, avoid gut feelings, and remain patient.

Quality forecasts is more important than quantity, focusing on just a few games on your bets can improve your results. but the thing is that no matter how quality your forecasts might be it still doesn't make it hundred percent guaranteed. Like you said emotional discipline and risk management might not really stop your losses, it can either reduce it a bit or slow it down. creating a quality forecast takes a lot of time and not everyone has the patience for it.

We know that gambling is a game of luck, but in this game of gambling, quality predictions in sports betting pretty much guarantee victory. If we cannot make quality predictions in sports betting, then we cannot ensure our victory in sports betting, then we have to leave sports betting to our luck. In the case of gambling, just budgeting money is not enough, we must gamble with good analysis and strategy. For quality predictions in sports betting, we need to collect additional information. For this, we need to know about each player, know about the team, know about the field. If we can analyze all these things well, then it becomes much easier for us to win in sports betting. So, learn to analyze sports betting well instead of leaving it to luck, and you will definitely get good success in gambling.

If it's not possible to become a long term sports bettor then I won't see people that have been doing it all of their lifetime. But, I am seeing people that does sports betting as their bread and butter but they have studied it very well before they get into its venture. Someone who knows how to make bets and analyze games before betting, that's what they do. And if someone won't do any of them and wanting to become a long term profitable bettor, they will still go and find what suits them a strategy but they will realize that it's needed to become one.

It's good to be familiar with the facts of the game and you will develop yourself in such a way that you can play the gambling game. Predictions can bring us unimaginable truths for which we should be prepared and set our attitude before betting. There are stages where the value of emotion and discipline can be observed as a secondary issue and the loss of money is certain.

I can say for sure that experience helps us reduce risks and pushes us out of the circle of defeat. For newbie gamblers the decision-making process between money management and gambling can be considered relatively risky. They may be limited in their ability to withstand the blow of defeat and be patient. For experienced gamblers, there is a balance between reviewing and applying risk tolerance.

I agree. Quality forecast is not just extremely important; it's, in fact, everything in sports betting. Even if you're irresponsible in your bankroll management, if you have quality forecast, you might not be considered irresponsible at all. The only thing that matters in sports betting is winning.

The question, now, is how to achieve quality forecast or, better yet, how accurate a realistic quality forecast is. Or, is it even possible to reach a highly consistent forecast? At the end of the day, games are to be played. The ball is round. No matter how good you are as an analyst, how familiar you are with the sport, you can't really predict what's going to happen during the actual games.

For example, I doubt somebody correctly predicted that the Knicks would take all the games in the defending champion's homecourt in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

All I know is that gambling is a place to throw money away most of the time, it's not a place for us to have money all the time, but when luck strikes you,
you can suddenly have a lot of money, but not all the chances are yours or ours to always win.

Because most of the time when a gambler experiences this, they think that it's a job because they can generate profit through luck in their gambling at any casino.
This is just my observation.

We can partly agree with this. Making money in sports betting is extremely difficult. In my opinion, the percentage of successful people in the long term is extremely small, much less than in trading. I will say more - making money in gambling in the long term is somewhat similar to aerobatics. It requires great erudition, experience, knowledge, the presence of unique advantages over other participants. Making money in trading is easier. Few people manage to make money in the long term in sports betting. But still, if you do, then this is evidence of a fairly high intellect.

What I know is that for anything that you think is impossible to accomplish, we have people accomplishing that same thing every day. People say there isn't any possibility to be gambling for long and be profitable but there is. Since it isn't like they're not going to lose but always be winning, that's when you can say it's impossible but to be profitable, we have many people being capable of doing that regularly.

Gambling has no guarantee but when you get the right strategy that works for yous and a little luck on your side, you'll be unstoppable. Having a quality forecast depends on where you get your information from and the things you're using to make your forecast. Some people only depends on the current form of the clubs playing or the personality that's involved in the game but we're meant to research further for better outcomes.

Don't forget that luck play the role in gambling. We will not win if we don't have luck so we see many people lose their money while only a few people wins the games. If we just still playing gambling without control, you will spend too much money and lose it. So if you can make a forecast on gambling, that can increase your percentage of winning but we should not expecting to win because everything can change.

You can make any forecast but that still a prediction which you don't know if your prediction is right or wrong. We will only see it when the match is end. So you need to get as much info as you can and analyze and compare it so you can conclude your prediction which team will win.

After that, you can place your bet and wait for the result.

The word, 'quality forecast' feels out of place to me tbh


Certainly, because on it your winning depends on.


If I am understanding, 'method of construction' right then I would say, just start watching any sports, and it'll come naturally. As you start watching you will gain knowledge, and that knowledge will help you make better predictions.

Of course, as a good gambler it's essential to always do your own forecast first before relying on luck. Although is quite sating that gambling depends on luck, but sometimes is very necessary for us to do some forecast before placing a bet. Because you can not just pick a team that is already weak and hoping that luck will going to make the team to win easily, it doesn't work that way. However, before relying slowly on luck is also advisable to do your own best first, because sometimes your own forecast can increase your chance of winning in gambling.

It is possible to make a profit in the long run in sports gambling. For this, we must follow some rules.

• First of all, I will say that we must have a full understanding of the game we are going to bet on. If we have only a half-baked idea, we should not bet on it. We may win money in some matches. However, if we think about the long term, we will face losses. So if we do not have complete knowledge about the game, we should not bet on that game.
• Secondly, we must understand the math of sports gambling. The favorite team can often be selected by checking the odds of different sites. This is an easy method. However, professional gamblers do not necessarily follow this.
• Thirdly, we must know well about the two teams in which the match will be held. We can select the favorite team by considering their squad and recent form. This is why it is important to have full knowledge about the game.
• Fourthly, we must have the ability to analyze data and statistics correctly. For example, I can talk about the match between Bayern Munich and Gladbach. The matches between these two teams are very competitive. Munich has won the last 3 matches against Gladbach. However, Munich has failed to win in the previous 6 consecutive matches against Gladbach. Munich was strong and the favorite. Even in their best form, they lost against Gladbach. You have to carefully examine these statistics and then decide to place a bet.

You are right, the outcome of a game can not be determined by the person that predicted the game. Some persons can actually claim to be experts in making predictions, despite that they are good in making predictions, they can not be perfect all the time and perhaps there are some weeks that person will just be experiencing a losing streak back to back.

Since this week, there's someone in my circle who has been winning his bets every day, no lose yet and even his profits yesterday was massive but sometimes it doesn't usually happen like that, he can have massive losses this week and also recover all those bad bets in the coming weeks.

Yup, been there, done that!
Bookies are okay with it while you're placing the losing bets on their sites, the moment you keep getting your wins on one is the moment the red flags parade starts. Also, the secondary problem, most bookies share the same provider, you can't even hide yourself that good or spread your arbitrage over multiple sites since most of the database on the bets is already centralized.
Try pushing over 10k a month on one but don't blame me one week later if it goes south!


That's exactly what I was talking about, I'm pretty interested myself in seeing how someone is using math to bet, and of course, I have no example for it since I was the one asking to be enlightened with such a scheme!
Other than stupid Martingale versions, which I debunked for example here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5536482.0) I have zero knowledge of such a thing.

Yes, I agree that no bookmaker will allow a player to turn gambling into a profitable business. And this is only one of the obstacles in the player's way.

That is, imagine a situation where a player really has an effective forecasting strategy that allows him to predict the results of sporting events. For a player, this is not enough to consistently make a profit in the long term. He needs to win without the bookmaker (and, accordingly, any other third-party observer) noticing.

How can this be done? The player must have winnings much smaller in amount than the winnings / losses of other players.

Then he will not attract the bookmaker's attention.

Is this possible in a situation where a player places bets on sporting events? In my opinion, no. In some gambling games it is possible, but not in this situation.

That's true and this happens more frequently to us that often gambles everyday, that it why to an extent, we may go in taking extra steps on receiving gambling prediction tips from other source in times of uncertainties and this has been helping in some ways, though there have not been any proven evidence to show how effective it has been for long in making us profitable, as we often lose when we play bets than winning.

Emotional control and risk management are just measures taken to reduce losses, if accurate predictions cannot be made 60 percent of the time then those things wouldn't really help you to make profit..it works well when you strategy works most of the time and you also remember to apply those safety measures...long term profits in sports without having good predictions is totally impossible...you can get lucky once in a while but don't always expect it.

A quality forecast can be said or referred as a forecast whose outcome are a product of systematic process or analysis of previous performance of same game, as it gives room to a close possibility or probability of same future occurrence, with reference to key Sport betting data's. Which in football, these key data's can be seen like for example, amount or previous corners, goals, and who are it's key players, if are they on match or they are on injury. As these data's will give you an edge to making quality sport betting data, despite knowing too that in football anything could happen, as luck can never be overemphasize, since it also plays an important role in football too.

It doesn't matter what you think, it's what you do when you read a quality prediction that you agree with... I usually follow it and place a bet.

I don't know what you mean by "construction"... any prediction is ultimately just a prediction. It may come true or it may not. Who knows? That's why we gamble & place bets. It's not like you can "construct" some special system/strategy with some laws & logic that will bring profit in the long run. Or maybe you can? We are all trying different things, but it's not an exact science, the luck factor is always present.

I think something, if we have a criterion based on our wisdom but we have some doubts, the tools that we base ourselves on investigating if they are good, this includes AI, between social networks, news, TV, everything, everything can be help, it cannot help us think better, but it should not be just one, it can help us clarify, but there should not be only 1 tool , it is a thousand times better to do our analysis without help first, and then do the research to see if it corresponds later with the tool and if it coincides then have security or at least more security.

Oh it definitely carries the bet. It's the actual replacement of luck when comparing sports betting to regular gambling gamess, albeit it doesn't completely replace it all, but it does replace ALMOST all of it. As for how to make it, actually just depends on you, really. Personally I consider what I make slopshoddy but hey, it works (sometimes). Everyone has their own way of tabulating and calculating odds and statistics so just roll with it.

As for the rest of the stuff you need, while yeah they just reduce the pace you lose your money they're still pretty important stuff to consider. I mean my total bet per game adjusts not just in my predictions but also based on my risks that I got.

I think that everything is possible in this life, in the long term the player Should be more expert and should have the necessary experience to get out of any kind of trouble , I could say that most of the time they make mistakes instead of learning what they achieve is Getting worse because they lose more surely, but it is because they bet badly and do things very badly , and that triggers all kinds of Negative consequences, among them the most important one is losing money.

In my opinion, the problem isn't the poor selection of the gambler or their naievety in choosing the right bet, since there can never be a winning strategy in sports betting, as gambling is essentially a game of chance. Rather, the real problem lies in making mistakes related to financial management and proper budget control. Poor asset management always causes huge problems in any scheme, including the management of gambling assets. Hence the famous rule: "Don't gamble more than you can afford to lose." This same principle applies to trading: don't invest in any cryptocurrency or even stocks with amounts you can't afford to lose.

The percentage of people who are successful in sports betting in the long run is very small because luck is always involved in winning, only those who are successful are able to place big and small bets at the same time pick the right team and win. And while some people can make long term profits through sports betting, it is more likely that they combine skill, growing knowledge, discipline and sometimes a little luck and besides that the smart thing is to bet the right amount on the right team. So even though the winning percentage is smaller in the long run and even more losses than wins but when it does win, it can result in big wins.

On my end, a quality forecast is a prediction based on some strong foundations - history, knowledge about the athletes, coach, their strategies, other variables such as weather conditions, injuries of athletes that may have an effect in their performance. So if you are a long-time sportsbettor, I believe, you have a lot of knowledge about the sports you are betting in. That when you predict, you are somehow having a quality prediction based on the years of your experience and knowledge that you have for the sports.

When it comes to betting it's way different from casino gambling because of the systems involved in selecting the games you bet on. Bettors don't just pick randomly, they select their games calculatively by taking notes of important informations needed to predict the game. A quality forecast cannot always put you in Profit but it Will definitely increase your chances of winning and reduce your losses

You mean the prediction right? That's what the odds tell us isn't?

No, it's not possible to predict the outcome of anygame with 100% success rate especially in the long run unless we only pick the games that we are sure that a team can win but do we have a sport like that is a big question.

I follow the cricket more than any sports so I can say I am sure that I have deep understanding and knowledge about the each players involved and their strength and weakness but I can predict which one is going to win, all I can is chose and expect them to win.

That's just one thing about casino games and betting: casino games are all about the player depending on luck for them to have any winning. No matter the type of strategy they use, they can only try to manage their bankroll, but they can't predict what their winning will look like. But for betting, you can put your skill to work and see you could be able to secure some winning from what you are doing.

I believe what you do is one of the best things one could do as gamblers, in my humble opinion, to specialize in a sport to the point of getting very good at predicting matches and then stick to that sport in the long term, hoping to for profits to be consistent enough to reach the status of "smart" bettor.
On the topic of being able to have 100% of accuracy on match predictions, it is obviously impossible as it would be against the whole idea of what betting is and it would easily break the betting markets is some people started to get that level of accuracy in certain sports.

Anyways, in the end what matters in the eyes of the casino is keeping the volume high and their markets attractive enough to keep the attention of gamblers in the long term, encouraging them to bet as often as possible.

Some people dont predict anything, they watch the game and live bet.  If you make a live bet just before the game turns around then it can be the best bet of all, sometimes the odds before the game were really not worth the bother as they had poor value a live bet can be ideal at times.
   You dont always need to predict, it can just be a positive well timed fortuitous reaction though knowing the background is arguable most helpful to aiding correct direction.

That's what actually happening in most social media influencers these days. They do have the freedom to share everything about their gambling games and the fact that they're winning, at least they could also share their kind of strategies that will make people interested and apply on their own gambling experience. That way, he will get paid with his millions of views if he has massive followers, and also got to share some help to those frustrated gamblers.

That is why I believe that only talented guys who are excellent and attentive to this hobby, and also are very passionate about the sport they bet on, can make a big profit from betting.
It turns out that in order to be in the plus from sports betting, many factors need to coincide, such as strong passion, knowledge of teams and interest in their internal relations, knowledge of statistics, etc. And that is why so few people profit from betting.

Quality forecast doesn't guarantee wins either, are you people on drugs or something? Isn't forecast based on prediction too? So if prediction is a quality type it will likely go your way? You people must be out of your minds.

There is nothing quality about prediction, you "don't know" is why it's called prediction and you want to rely heavily on prediction? Prediction isn't related to you having luck, if you are out if luck you are out of luck, premium or quality won't bring you luck in any way.

Gamblers comes up with words that fits in with their present gambling experience especially when they are winning, the next thing is to feel like they've got it right, they know perfectly well how to handle gambling until it doesn't look this way later on.

But even if you are in that level still we cannot guarantee to win. Also base on this site the percentage of winning sports bettor is less and they only believe that there's 3%-5% are profitable read this somehow they write some interesting information's here https://www.boydsbets.com/percentage-profitable-sports-bettors/

Although even if the stats say sports bettor is less profitable in long run I will still agree with you that strong passion and knowledge somehow give you good chance to win. But its just our expectation will not always gonna happen especially that there's lots of factors on why the game result came differently and we could lose on unexpected situations.

However, professionals can also have long losing streaks, it even depends on the fact that random dispersion affects them as in poker. I want to say that if a professional makes quality forecasts and even has a positive expected profit, he can face the fact that he simply will not be lucky and this can knock him out of it due to lack of bankroll. And if the professional can still get out of this, then the ordinary player who was just lucky up to this point will be crushed by this. For a long-term positive game, you need to take into account all the factors and cling to every straw to win in order to make a profit in the long run, this can still be an extremely small number of players, but they exist.

In my opinion you don't need to forecast an outcome. You need to find an event that you can guess and allow to have a profit.
I would not care about forecasting and being able to guess some high odds. I prefer to win even small odds, even silly results is fine to me.
Its a suble and important difference because one thing is to guess who is the winner of the match, another thing is to guess a specific number of goals during a part of the match.

Absolutely and agree with this since somehow if you chase those things you will just get frustrated on any possible result since its like you are desperate for seeking a sure win with those things.

That's why sometime I bet on the team I think that has huge chance to win and don't care about the forecast made by they called expert or anything since they are also not sure about what they are saying.

Maybe more better to enjoy and bet on familiar teams since somehow you will be confident on your decisions made especially for betting on those things you think have high chance to win even if you can get less profit from them.

For me there is no prediction in sports gambling, sports gambling is not a lottery where you can predict the number of demons that will possibly come out when the lottery is announced.

Sports betting is more prioritized about accurate information to be able to achieve a display term, it is very important to consider clubs, coaches, players, referees, Field conditions and matters relating to sports matches, you cannot just rely on predictions in sports betting.

it would be interesting to talk to someone who's been doing it in a profitable way for more than 10 years
I think it's more common to find successful sports bettors in the short term like 6 months to 2 years that will end up leaving after making some money

but I don't know, everything is possible
sometimes we hear such stories on internet

You are right, quality forecast wont quarantee a win, there is no such think as a "dead cert"
[dead certainty] but as per the OP without a quality forecast there is a massive risk of a loss.

In sports there are many factors witch are random and may or may not happen in that match,
there are too many factors which play a role in a match outcome, the biggest being the referee.
Others include, mental attitude and discipline of players on the day and injuries, there is no
forward accounting for these.

So even if you are an expert in the game and follow your team vigorously those factors are
still out of your control

So "Likely" is not going to guarantee a win.

My thoughts too, I was surprised to see people saying that the outcome of their bets is dependant on quality forecast. Aren't forecast the opinion of others or isn't forecast all about what the presenters think will happen in the game. They can be wrong or right but we won't know until we're done with the bets. Forecast shouldn't be what we have to depend on for we to gamble, we can make our own predictions and despite how the outcome of the bet goes, we're still going to benefits from the analysis that we did ourselves because we're going to gain some experience or knowledge from the bets when we don't win. Being a long term sport better involves understanding the game that we're betting and also being lucky with our predictions since it's gambling we're doing.

There are 2 well known ways and both are banned by the casinos.

1- arbitrage betting
2- ev betting

If you follow either of those strategies, you’ll be making money in the long run. The problem is, casinos will notice it and they’ll probably lock your casino account since these strategies are usually against their ToS.

It is probably a better idea to find a better paying job. Gambling won’t work that way.

I always liked to see things for myself without outside help and opinion, especially in analyzing my bets. I am not a winning player, but the analysis allowed me to understand some things, such as what exactly not to do in order not to lose too quickly. Besides that, I want to get some excitement and a little fun from the game, so I never make big bets and know when I need to stop. Even with this experience I feel pretty good, however, I would like to learn more about doing expert analysis, which I lack, but I will learn it only on my own, who knows, maybe over time I will be able to win a little more and lose even less.

It is possible to win regularly in sports betting and many people can win regularly who have a good knowledge of the game. However, no one can guarantee to win. Because not all good teams or all good players can play well all the time. Sometimes even very strong teams lose for various reasons. Therefore, no one can ever guarantee to win by placing bets on gambling. However, it is true that the winning ratio in sports betting is much higher than other bets. So a highly skilled and experienced gambler can win well from sports betting.

do you know how they identify arbitrage betting since they don't have direct access to your account in the other websites (and you could even be using a different account with different name/email/kyc info)?
just curious about that because it is probably a cat and mouse game, hard to catch

probably not so easy to profit this way too and those who do it consistently probably have a huge bankroll

Yes, I agree with that, in fact it is totally applicable or is analogous to when playing slots, it is not that you do not know how to play slots, it is the way in which you bet on slots, how and when to raise the bet, when to play the minimum? when to bet almost everything, those are the Criteria that we normally redeem ourselves with what is called experience, it is Knowing how to bet , Knowing how much money we should bet in a given situation, I think that applies too.

In gambling, we can never say that we will win. But you are right that in sports gambling, the chances of winning are high. If we are experienced and able to analyze the data correctly, then it is possible to win most of the bets. But it is impossible for us to win in all of them. Because in many matches we see the underdog team winning. And we lose the bet.

Sports betting is difficult compared to casino. Most of the casino games are based on luck. We do not have much control over it. However, in sports gambling, if we can analyze the theoretical data correctly, we have a good idea about the squad and the form of the team, then the chances of winning the bet increase. I do not face big losses in sports gambling. Even if we consider the long term, I am financially profitable.

Slot games in particular cannot be experienced, and therefore, there is no practical strategy that can be adapted to their algorithms. My personal opinion is that those who prefer slots are crazy people who aren't convinced that games are pre-programmed according to specific settings, and you can never predict their outcomes or consider the possibility of manipulating them. Most slot players spend huge sums of money, and all they do is wait and wait for the system to choose them and award them a bigmultiplier. Therefore, we sometimes find extreme cases where someone spends their fortune on a slot game without winning anything, while another tries their luck with a small sum and wins the fortune that the first player lost.

I recommend sports betting, as it's the only way you can gain experience based on your knowledge in the sport you choose. This experience is a contributing factor that brings you closer to winning. But always remember that these are all games of chance.

I consider sports betting to be one of the numerous forms of gambling that can be influenced by knowledge and quality analysis. This does not mean that being acquainted with all information about the sport and the teams involved will automatically result in a win-win situation, but having this knowledge is better than betting blindly with no knowledge or skill to guide you when making decisions. In sports betting, skill is just as important as luck. I have had my own experience with betting without quality analysis and I will always recommend that sports bettors put in much effort while betting.

yes! it's totally different than slots where it is pure luck, zero skill (or almost no skill at all)
in sports betting knowledge can really make a difference
of course there's still a huge luck component but then skill comes into play and can make a difference
I'm not sure if I'd say it is 50/50 though

The truth is that your predictions cannot always be accurate...a lot of bettors tend to forget that even though they are good with analysis there are still some factors that can affect the game to ruin the prediction.. forecasting sports is predicting the future,  using statistics doesn't always mean that your prediction is a hundred percent..This is the reason why you must always stake low, nothing can be too sure

How can you create a profitable forecast if you don't know what future outcomes are going to be? You can draw your forecast based on past events or expectations regard the future, which can become reality or not. And even though you have a pretty clear and realistic forecast of the future, there aren't any guarantees you are going to be accurate on your predictions. There is a thin line between a winning, a loss and a tie, and if you choose the wrong one, then it's going to take another set of winnings to recover what you lost, under the risk of losing further.

At same time, it doesn't mean you lack a quality forecast. You may have it, but the point is that things can go unexpectedly wrong, because the line between right and wrong is too sensible on this matter.

It's different from a business, where the margin of error can be larger. You can commit more mistakes without totally compromising your sustainability and long term progress. In Gambling, though, you have to be incredibly accurate, otherwise it's game over!

I like this, I really think that this is very encouraging data, because I have Seen that in most Comments they say that those who play long-term with sports betting are doing badly , of course you Have to see how they are making the bets and if they are making sports bets on more than 2 sports, Because making this type of bets is something that the person must be at another level , but I like what you said that in the long term you are profitable.

Many said that because of the house edge. Assuming you are betting on matches with 50% winning chance rate, you will only get an odds around 1.9 which is lesser than the risk you are taking.

If your winning percentage is just barely 50% then you are still in loss due to house edge that’s why it’s easy to assume that you will lose long term in general.

There’s an exemption to the rules if you blessed with good analysis skills that makes you win frequently to make your PnL positive in long term.

Being a long term sport bettor does not qualify us to be profitable in playing bets, what has kept us gambling for years should still remain as part of what we must always consider to be able to continue gambling and having our satisfaction in it, we can be a long time bettor without anything nto show for it.

But we should also never forget that gambling is about taking a risk and having a fun altogether, which does not change anything for how long we have been gambling or not, some one can start today and experience a luck, while we can as well adopt a change on strategy being used and still be lucky.

Indeed, there is no guarantee that we can get a profit in sports betting in the long term. But if you can manage your bets well, maybe a small profit in the long term can be obtained.
If you can control yourself to only bet on opportunities that provide better wins, you may avoid consecutive losses. I mean only bet on matches that are known, not too impulsive to increase the accumulation of Odds with parlay. Many bettors find it difficult to win and tend to get caught up in consecutive losses because they are too greedy with their betting Odds.

in the short term you can even make big profit but the key is probably knowing when to stop
when you hit big book your profits, go home and take it easy because sometimes it's simply luck, not skill

it could be hard to identify

Sportsbetting is still gambling. So yeah, there's no assurance here even if you are very familiar with the sports. There will be days that you will be losing and winning in some days. But one thing is certain, you can't guarantee that you will always win with your bets even if you can categorize yourself as an expert of the sports.


That is why some long-time sportsbettor can really make a living out of this facet of gambling. Sure, there's luck factor involve in every bet but the more you know the sports, the better is your chance of predicting a winning bet. Because for me, sportsbetting and poker are just few gambling games that luck is not the total factor in your winning chance, but also, your knowledge and skill about the game.

That kind of mindset won’t really help if your goal is to become a profitable sports bettor. Being in it long-term gives you experience.. sure, it doesn’t guarantee profit, but if you’re the type of gambler who learns from mistakes and works on improving your skills, then it’s definitely possible.

There’s no harm in believing in yourself, because it’s not impossible to make money from sports betting. So why close the door by thinking it’s just for fun or that winning only comes from luck?

Sports betting is where the punters/players put their skill to work, and when the first strategy doesn't work, they try to formulate another one and try again. Even if they continue losing, as long as there is a close win, they will see improvement in their effort and try again even harder, which, if gambling can be 100% predicted, there are some people whose effort could have cracked down on that system.

There's no doubt about what you say about slots, but when I play I play with the minimum stake, I almost never increase the bet, in fact for me playing slots is relaxing and when I reach my limit or the identity I am willing to lose, then that's it and no more.

I also make sports bets and yes, you win more, the odds are much more friendly for the player, however sometimes extraordinary events occur that some call luck, I don't, I say that they are things that can happen, but of course between slots and sports betting the highest odds of winning are in sports betting, but with slots you can win a lot with little money, that's what makes some people see slots in a different light.

The worst thing is being assured in your experience and longevity of sports betting then finding out the game just changed and you were really wrong this time.
    Slot games I swear have some kind of strategy to them maybe perhaps just longevity so you progress through the full cycle of wins and losses they seem to have and knowing which is which but yea sports betting is more about you vs the crowd so I think naturally fairer many times.

For me, the trick is to make bets that we feel confident in making , not to make multiple bets just for the sake of betting and with little knowledge , I bet a lot on football, but because I like it and because I understand it. I'm aware of every Detail of the Leagues I follow, and that helps So, in that case, that knowledge can turn into profits for us.

Because so many profitable bettors is liable to lose early as they're practicing to learn and adapt the gaming features.Normally, some of these games are developed overtime to gain access to information that'll give relevant details to get a positive edge.

Most of those who win in better with their own analysis of the match often are religiously following the sport and learn the teams well. With this passion, they simply know what the bookmakers are saying when it comes to the odds. The bookmakers doesn't get the odds wrong, they know what it means to make money as well. And only an upset makes them wrong.  So the forecast may even go along with the bookmakers fave team.

The problem I have with These strategies is that no One claims to use them or is it because they are trying to hide from the sportsbook but still if people were actually using the betting systems then we would be getting some info about their wins. It makes me wonder if these strategies are that hard. I know the first one but I haven't heard of the second one before, either way I don't think there are cheat codes to betting

Bookies mistakes, i know it. My highest single odd was 17. It was online bet on the first seconds of the match. And lots of bets with odd between 5 and 15. So i`m sure that bookies mistakes. But mostly they correct the odds very fast and cancel the bet. But it is details.
The truth is that it is possible to get stable profit for long-term, but it is not easy money. And i don`t think that bettors, who works hard for it, will share their strategy for free or for small sums.

Having a quality forecast not only helps you in winning but it also increases your chances of success in sports-betting.

In sports-betting, knowledge and information is power. The more information you have and studied, the more factors will be considered in making your decision on which team to beat. Sure, there may be external factors that are outside your control but the other factors increase your chances of having a successful run on your bets.

With regard to the other disciplines you have mentioned, those factors are considered "natural responses" that apply to all aspects of gambling, whether it be sports-betting, card games, or other kinds as well. Those are the natural factors that everyone must possess in order to have a more successful run in your gambling activities.

Being able to forecast is that same as being able to predict right?, here I would say that a quality forcast is only born out of years of experience in the sports betting sector, and this include years of watching different teams and clubs come and go, and for those who have managed to survive, you watched them grow from their tender age to what they've become today.
Some one who have spent this long time in sports and betting has a way better chances of forecasting or predicting outcomes more accurately, but still, luck has its course to play.

It is important we understand that yesterday is not today and that one thing that is very constant in life is change, teams change, and so does their playing pattern change too, so even with years of experience, it's still very possible to predict ot forecast wrongly most of the time..

You are right, such a thing exists and these guys make money on the long run, but I would love to mention that the legit ones are very rare to find. One thing to note is that scammers also take advantage of the existence of fixed match agents to defraud people to a very high extent. In 2016, I met a fixed match agent by name Mohammed Bouzuki which gave me a game or two and it went fine, in another attempt to contact him for further games, I found out his page has been brought down and there was already more than 20 pages bearing his name meaning scammers have risen to action.

I was pained because I would have been a successful bettor if I had continued to patronize him or so I thought :(. That brought me back to the luck series and further attempts to find a replacement of him gave me big losses and turned me into an addict.

This strategy is not hard because there’s some tool to determine a potential arbitrage bets on different sportsbook. It’s hard if you do it manually since you will need to browse all the games 1 by 1 out of thousands active bet option.

Many users on scam accusation that suffer problem on sportsbook probably using this same tool to do arbitrage.

I remember someone selling me this tool before but the only problem is the potential lock on your account because odds provider watch all the account that bet on same matches with arbitrage opportunity.