Is it possible to be a long-term profitable sports bettor without being able to

[Julien_Olynpic]

I have always believed that a quality forecast in sports betting is extremely important. More precisely, all elements of the gaming system are important in their own way: risk management, discipline with emotion control and strategy. But if you cannot generate a quality forecast with a high percentage of success, then it is unlikely that emotion control and discipline will help you.

Neither emotion, discipline or quality forecast will help you win. You need to ask yourself how do you identify a quality forecast from one that is of less quality? The answer is of no way. Our forecast is uncertain even when we think it is of great quality. Gambling is luck so whenever we trust our instinct we should also expect that a loss is still possible. Emotions and discipline might triggers a safe way of gambling, yet it doesn't still guarantee you  a win, although it helps in reducing the risk we take.

Of course, a good forecast can only be distinguished from a bad one after the fact. Simply put, this can only be done after the game, before the game the quality of the forecast is unclear. On the other hand, we can evaluate the quality of the method that creates successful forecasts based on statistics. Of course, there are no forecasts with 100% accuracy, because the outcome of matches can be influenced by a variety of and often seemingly insignificant events. These can also be events that are almost impossible to predict, such as player injuries. Sometimes the result of a match is even difficult to associate with any factor. A person or a team may simply not be in the best shape. Or these may be some secondary irrational factors.

[Agbamoni]

snip

Neither emotion, discipline or quality forecast will help you win. You need to ask yourself how do you identify a quality forecast from one that is of less quality? The answer is of no way. Our forecast is uncertain even when we think it is of great quality. Gambling is luck so whenever we trust our instinct we should also expect that a loss is still possible. Emotions and discipline might triggers a safe way of gambling, yet it doesn't still guarantee you  a win, although it helps in reducing the risk we take.

Of course, a good forecast can only be distinguished from a bad one after the fact. Simply put, this can only be done after the game, before the game the quality of the forecast is unclear. On the other hand, we can evaluate the quality of the method that creates successful forecasts based on statistics. Of course, there are no forecasts with 100% accuracy, because the outcome of matches can be influenced by a variety of and often seemingly insignificant events. These can also be events that are almost impossible to predict, such as player injuries. Sometimes the result of a match is even difficult to associate with any factor. A person or a team may simply not be in the best shape. Or these may be some secondary irrational factors.

Only on a long run can one determine the quality of a forecast. Well, many person can consider it to be series of luck since there are times we get lucky to have winning streaks. We cannot differentiate between luck or the quality of forecast. However, making forecast is very necessary because it gives us more chances of winning our bets. And yeah, you are right, there is no 100% accurate forecast.

[Samlucky O]

However, creating a quality forecast is always a problem of additional information and better processing of this information. Write what you think about a quality forecast, its role in a gaming system and the methods of its construction.

Creating a quality forecast is one of the difficult thing to do as it will only boost your ego and moral, making you believe you gonna win big but may not win big. There is no quality forecast till a game is won. What you see as quality forecast may not be what you think it is. Sometimes you just need to make some random selection as your heart pleases and you may win. Quality forecast is just like over analysing game and building false hope.

[stompix]

On the issue of profitability, well let's just say we have people that know their sport and make money from it...then there are others that use mathematics to make money and btw this is deemed illegal by some bookie's, otherwise it's not everything about sporting knowledge of becoming profitable

How can a bookie who takes sports bet even discover you're using mathematics to bet?
Do you actually have any examples of a bookie banning someone because they used statistics to bet on a team or event?

just check the scam accusation board. casinos that use sports betting providers like Betby ban and restrict players all the time for "sports fraud". if you are arbitrage betting/value betting or you have a consistent edge against them you are gone, if they don't ban you, they limit you to like $2 bets.
as for how they can tell you are using math to bet, they have shit ton of data that they feed into their algorithm to find people doing this, and with AI, it's even easier to detect now.

Arbitrage is an illegal practice, and it's not a betting strategy!
You can't have arbitrage when there are no odds that you can take advantage of so you can't apply this strategy to all games, making it more of an exploit than a strategy.
Again, I haven't yet seen a mathematical strategy that would allow you to bet and at the same time be discovered by bookies.

Spot on @Zwei the evidence is there everywhere, am pretty sure a human too can read between the lines what's happening on the players profile...and the pattern can tell if a user is arbitrage betting/value betting .
Just out of curiosity, stompix do you sport bet no offence 

I have a weird feeling is way more than you do!
I asked you to show me a strategy based on math that you used to bet and that can be discovered and has been banned by bookies.
Arbitrage is not a strategy is an exploit.

So before going to low level shitty attacks like this, how about you back up your claims first!
I'm still waiting for a math strategy banned by bookies, show me the link to one of it, can you do it?

[Woodie]

Just out of curiosity, stompix do you sport bet no offence  

I have a weird feeling is way more than you do!

Great! It will be nice to see you compete with other like minded pundits in different pools on the forum, like walk the talk  

AHHH Stake...I see.

I asked you to show me a strategy based on math that you used to bet and that can be discovered and has been banned by bookies.
Arbitrage is not a strategy is an exploit.

So before going to low level shitty attacks like this, how about you back up your claims first!
I'm still waiting for a math strategy banned by bookies, show me the link to one of it, can you do it?

Let's not make this a war of words and if you interpreted that as an attack on you my apologies, and don't miss quote me, I didn't call it a strategy btw... I simply said we have people that use mathematics to be profitable in sport's betting and that's how we arrived at arbitrage! I guess we were on different pages 📄 of the book.

[bubilas]

I have always believed that a quality forecast in sports betting is extremely important. More precisely, all elements of the gaming system are important in their own way: risk management, discipline with emotion control and strategy. But if you cannot generate a quality forecast with a high percentage of success, then it is unlikely that emotion control and discipline will help you. Risk management and money management are also unlikely to help you win. All this will only allow you to lose your money a little slower, but will not help you win. The key factor in winning is a quality forecast. However, creating a quality forecast is always a problem of additional information and better processing of this information. Write what you think about a quality forecast, its role in a gaming system and the methods of its construction.

I wasn't strong in sports betting, but I think that if I was aware of sports events on this topic, knew all the teams and their players, then I would try myself in betting, and I would take this occupation very seriously.
But I'm sure that I would not try to bet without AI advice. For example, Deepseek. Recently here on the forum, someone showed how much AI can predict the result of a given match, analyzing past meetings and other different factors. And it was a little impressive.

[stompix]

Let's not make this a war of words and if you interpreted that as an attack on you my apologies, and don't miss quote me,

You started the war of words, and you started pointing fingers and acting all high and mighty, so I'm not misquoting anything, you accuse me of not gambling like being stupid and not knowing what I'm talking about, then you threw in some out-of-place phrases, and now you say let's not take things literally. Guess what two letters I have for this!

AHHH Stake...I see.

So what is this supposed to mean and be careful with those misinterpretations!
And till then, do show me that math, I'm really curious about it, after all it's a discussion forum, right, are you hiding your strategy that made you richer than Crasus?

[lionheart78]

I have always believed that a quality forecast in sports betting is extremely important. More precisely, all elements of the gaming system are important in their own way: risk management, discipline with emotion control and strategy. But if you cannot generate a quality forecast with a high percentage of success, then it is unlikely that emotion control and discipline will help you.

Emotion control and discipline can still help us.  If we are unable to get a clear or dependable forecast, our emotion control and risk management will prevent us from betting thus saving us from losses.  In gambling, it is more important to avoid unnecessary losses than a chance winnings.  This way we are able to gamble for a longer time without replenishing our bankroll, thus saving us from negative effect of hasty betting.

Risk management and money management are also unlikely to help you win. All this will only allow you to lose your money a little slower, but will not help you win.

I agree, risk management and money management won't help us to win, it isn't the purpose of these managements anyway.  Its purpose is the efficient cashflows of our activity.  To ensure that we are not do waste betting, avoid overbetting, and make sure that our gambling activity won't affect our financial status negatively.

The key factor in winning is a quality forecast. However, creating a quality forecast is always a problem of additional information and better processing of this information.

Quality forecasting is truly needed if we want to enhance our chance of winning,  we can either learn to do it ourselves or find reliable sources, but I would recommend the earlier since knowing how to do it ourselves ensures that we only make sports predictions that will benefit us.

Write what you think about a quality forecast, its role in a gaming system and the methods of its construction.

How about you do you have any guideline for quality forecasting?

[Smartprofit]

However, creating a quality forecast is always a problem of additional information and better processing of this information. Write what you think about a quality forecast, its role in a gaming system and the methods of its construction.

Creating a quality forecast is one of the difficult thing to do as it will only boost your ego and moral, making you believe you gonna win big but may not win big. There is no quality forecast till a game is won. What you see as quality forecast may not be what you think it is. Sometimes you just need to make some random selection as your heart pleases and you may win. Quality forecast is just like over analysing game and building false hope.

I would go further: “You cannot claim to have made a good prediction earlier (before the game started), even if the game is won.” Suppose you have made a prediction that you believe to be a good prediction. And suppose the game is won.

Does that give you confidence that your original prediction was indeed a good prediction? Isn’t there a chance that you were just lucky? Could it be a coincidence?

The famous writer, philosopher, and trader Nassim Taleb has a great book called Fooled by Randomness. It describes exactly such situations. In my opinion, you can classify your prediction as a good prediction only if you have a competitive advantage over other players.

If you cannot clearly articulate what exactly your competitive advantage is over other players, then you need to admit that you are not capable of making good predictions on sports events.

[Zwei]

Arbitrage is an illegal practice, and it's not a betting strategy!

arbitrage is definitely not illegal, it's just against the terms of service.
there are a few bookies that are okay with it, some not so much, and it is a betting strategy, thousands of bettors use it daily.

You can't have arbitrage when there are no odds that you can take advantage of so you can't apply this strategy to all games, making it more of an exploit than a strategy.

there is no strategy that can be applied to all games, there is none. and i wouldn't call it an exploit as you are not cheating or doing anything unfair, you are just taking advantage of the odds on soft bookies.

Again, I haven't yet seen a mathematical strategy that would allow you to bet and at the same time be discovered by bookies.

i'm not sure i undertande what you exactly mean by mathematical strategy? can you give me an example? becasue as far as i know, arbitrage is a mathematical strategy, same as value betting.

[Mrbluntzy]

You already mentioned the most important thing about a quality forecaster, good forecasters utilizes every important factors relating to the games they want to predict, they can even go extra miles to look at past old records and they also apply every possible strategy carefully so that they don't lose back to back. Being long term profitable in gambling or betting is by luck and only a few bettors enjoy that favour, some bettors can still be good forecasters but might not be profitable on the long run. Someone have complained before that no matter how hard they try in doing analysis, they are not so lucky as expected.

[Mahanton]

I have always believed that a quality forecast in sports betting is extremely important. More precisely, all elements of the gaming system are important in their own way: risk management, discipline with emotion control and strategy. But if you cannot generate a quality forecast with a high percentage of success, then it is unlikely that emotion control and discipline will help you. Risk management and money management are also unlikely to help you win. All this will only allow you to lose your money a little slower, but will not help you win. The key factor in winning is a quality forecast. However, creating a quality forecast is always a problem of additional information and better processing of this information. Write what you think about a quality forecast, its role in a gaming system and the methods of its construction.

For those long time sports bettor or simply having the experience or with those who are profitable, then we can be able to say that these forecast will be something that significant or something that it is very helpful or even lets say that you will be needing it up for you in order to have that good analysis with your betting choices. We do know that on the time that we do make out some picking with our favorite team/players then of course you will be needing up that significant information on which in relation into their past games and the outcomes, the team/player against with and other history on which you do need to know for you to be able to make out some comparison. The good thing about on betting on sports is that you can apply some strategy into it and not really just that trying out to pick up without having any consideration on applying relevant information on which you could be able to obtain on different sources or simply at the time that you do make out some searches. It will be totally basing up on your actions or approach on how you do acquire such information on which you could be able to apply into your analysis and having that edge or good odds on winning up the bet. Profitability will be pertaining on how you do make up some application towards your betting. If you do find out that its effective then why would be trying to look for another? Most bettors or experienced ones will be that able to determine on how important with these forecast. It might be that neglected by some but you do able to see its importance at the time that you do hover yourself on sports betting. You will be seeing its significance or being useful when dealing up on information gathering.

[yhiaali3]

In my opinion, this is pointless. I mean, you can't rely on good predictions in sports betting because, no matter how experienced and knowledgeable you are about the competing teams, the players' playing style, and the tactics adopted by the coach, it only works by chance.

Every match has its own unique circumstances. Even the most famous players in the world can have poor matches due to certain circumstances. Also, very big teams often lose to much less famous teams, so it's difficult to rely on data for predictions.
It all depends on luck and sometimes inspiration.

[kotajikikox]

Only on a long run can one determine the quality of a forecast. Well, many person can consider it to be series of luck since there are times we get lucky to have winning streaks.

When you win constantly without actually learning anything about the match then that’s luck but you also need to give credit to yourself if you have done enough research and have given enough effort which is why you are winning.

We cannot differentiate between luck or the quality of forecast. However, making forecast is very necessary because it gives us more chances of winning our bets. And yeah, you are right, there is no 100% accurate forecast.

There’s no 100% because we can’t be guaranteed that our forecast is correct until after the event has taken place and we see the end results.

[Onyeeze]

I have always believed that a quality forecast in sports betting is extremely important. More precisely, all elements of the gaming system are important in their own way: risk management, discipline with emotion control and strategy. But if you cannot generate a quality forecast with a high percentage of success, then it is unlikely that emotion control and discipline will help you. Risk management and money management are also unlikely to help you win. All this will only allow you to lose your money a little slower, but will not help you win. The key factor in winning is a quality forecast. However, creating a quality forecast is always a problem of additional information and better processing of this information. Write what you think about a quality forecast, its role in a gaming system and the methods of its construction.

In gambling what you have to understand is that gambling is all about risk, neither you learn how to control your emotions or not in gambling, someone that will lose, will definitely lose in the gambling, from my views, anyone who wants to forecasts game most calm it temperatures and forecasts in good condition, but a process whereby you forecasts game with pressure and durance you will end up losing everything, so for my understanding we have to understand that gambling is all about luck and risk, the measures you take in the gambling and win, another person might take same measures and lose, so gambling strategies are not same and it never be the same.

[coolcoinz]

It's possible to be profitable in the long run, but you'll never know if you're the profitable one until you get there.

It's like going into a tunnel, not knowing how long it is. When you come out on the other side you'll know if it was long, short, or maybe too long for you to handle

The only way to do this is to play and see how you do. After 100+ bets you'll know if you're profitable or not. The deal is, you can't rely on a single bet or a single month because good gamblers also have ups and downs. The deal is to be able to tell that you're in profit after 100+ games, not after 5 because 5 don't mean shit.

[mcdouglasx]

In sports betting, if you're knowledgeable about the subject, you could say that every day there is at least one match across all disciplines that is reliable (or more likely to happen). And it doesn’t necessarily have to be the one that the statistics on betting sites highlight. A good bettor should be able to make decisions based on their own criteria.

We saw this with the discussion about the new Pope. I mentioned that it was an extremely difficult bet to win because it was a blind wager. In that case, it didn't matter what the news or statistics said.

Therefore, it is possible to be a bettor who earns long-term profits if you study sports, avoid gut feelings, and remain patient.

[rachael9385]

I have always believed that a quality forecast in sports betting is extremely important. More precisely, all elements of the gaming system are important in their own way: risk management, discipline with emotion control and strategy. But if you cannot generate a quality forecast with a high percentage of success, then it is unlikely that emotion control and discipline will help you. Risk management and money management are also unlikely to help you win. All this will only allow you to lose your money a little slower, but will not help you win. The key factor in winning is a quality forecast. However, creating a quality forecast is always a problem of additional information and better processing of this information. Write what you think about a quality forecast, its role in a gaming system and the methods of its construction.

Quality forecasts is more important than quantity, focusing on just a few games on your bets can improve your results. but the thing is that no matter how quality your forecasts might be it still doesn't make it hundred percent guaranteed. Like you said emotional discipline and risk management might not really stop your losses, it can either reduce it a bit or slow it down. creating a quality forecast takes a lot of time and not everyone has the patience for it.

[2Pizza410000BTC]

We know that gambling is a game of luck, but in this game of gambling, quality predictions in sports betting pretty much guarantee victory. If we cannot make quality predictions in sports betting, then we cannot ensure our victory in sports betting, then we have to leave sports betting to our luck. In the case of gambling, just budgeting money is not enough, we must gamble with good analysis and strategy. For quality predictions in sports betting, we need to collect additional information. For this, we need to know about each player, know about the team, know about the field. If we can analyze all these things well, then it becomes much easier for us to win in sports betting. So, learn to analyze sports betting well instead of leaving it to luck, and you will definitely get good success in gambling.

[batang_bitcoin]

If it's not possible to become a long term sports bettor then I won't see people that have been doing it all of their lifetime. But, I am seeing people that does sports betting as their bread and butter but they have studied it very well before they get into its venture. Someone who knows how to make bets and analyze games before betting, that's what they do. And if someone won't do any of them and wanting to become a long term profitable bettor, they will still go and find what suits them a strategy but they will realize that it's needed to become one.