Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: arepo on January 27, 2012, 06:08:52 PM



Title: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: arepo on January 27, 2012, 06:08:52 PM
oh yes, the bitcoin economy is completely controlled by a powerful, omni-wealthy entity who chooses to move the price around at will, for their own sick enjoyment.

sounds as bs as any abrahamic religion if you ask me.

we have an instinctive tendency to ascribe intelligence to randomness and see design where there is none.

it is, actually, just like the abrahamic religions, a great way to avoid responsibility. hurricanes are not punishments. they are wake-up calls. each one of us here in this subforum is responsible for the volatility we are seeing.

just trade patiently


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: BadBear on January 27, 2012, 06:11:05 PM
Wow you really are the first one to make this point. I'm sure you've changed the minds of many people and started a snowball effect of change.  


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: arepo on January 27, 2012, 06:14:00 PM
Wow you really are the first one to make this point. I'm sure you've changed the minds of many people and started a snowball effect of change.  

maybe for a lot of people here, this is their first experience trading and it's obvious during some of the non-manipulated price swings that there is some serious panic buying/selling going on.

are you patronizing me for presenting good advice in a relatively novel way? patience is important.


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: Koekiemonster on January 27, 2012, 06:16:19 PM
He makes a great point though and it can't be said enough, because people are so irrational.

I do think there are one or more big players out there influencing the market a lot, but it's the people that react to this changing the market the most.

I wonder whether there are more people (like me) thinking of "the manipulator" as someone actually thinking about the long run and keeping the price in reasonable ranges for a while. I don't see anything really crazy going on and I actually like the way the prizes are progressing right now. Long term bullish, but within reason.


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: N12 on January 27, 2012, 06:18:00 PM
Completely agree. The Manipulator is an excuse for bad trading so you can self-victimize.

Also, I like arepo, please continue posting. Much better than a FlipPro. ;D


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: arepo on January 27, 2012, 06:19:48 PM
He makes a great point though and it can't be said enough, because people are so irrational.

I do think there are one or more big players out there influencing the market a lot, but it's the people that react to this changing the market the most.

I wonder whether there are more people (like me) thinking of "the manipulator" as someone actually thinking about the long run and keeping the price in reasonable ranges for a while. I don't see anything really crazy going on and I actually like the way the prizes are progressing right now. Long term bullish, but within reason.

observation: there are a few VERY big players involved in BTC, as evidenced by massive bidwalls on mtgoxlive

as soon as you even think about whether they have ulterior motives you're wildly speculating.

i would say most of the volatility recently actually comes from the effect of leveraged bitcoinica positions on the market.


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: BadBear on January 27, 2012, 06:21:22 PM
Completely agree. The Manipulator is an excuse for bad trading so you can self-victimize.

Also, I like arepo, please continue posting. Much better than a FlipPro. ;D

Can't argue with that. Maybe I'm giving people too much credit when I assume "The Manipulator" talk is tongue in cheek.  ;) 


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: teflone on January 27, 2012, 06:30:07 PM
He makes a great point though and it can't be said enough, because people are so irrational.

I do think there are one or more big players out there influencing the market a lot, but it's the people that react to this changing the market the most.

I wonder whether there are more people (like me) thinking of "the manipulator" as someone actually thinking about the long run and keeping the price in reasonable ranges for a while. I don't see anything really crazy going on and I actually like the way the prizes are progressing right now. Long term bullish, but within reason.

observation: there are a few VERY big players involved in BTC, as evidenced by massive bidwalls on mtgoxlive

as soon as you even think about whether they have ulterior motives you're wildly speculating.

i would say most of the volatility recently actually comes from the effect of leveraged bitcoinica positions on the market.

Bingo!


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: arepo on January 27, 2012, 06:30:38 PM
Completely agree. The Manipulator is an excuse for bad trading so you can self-victimize.

Also, I like arepo, please continue posting. Much better than a FlipPro. ;D

flattered :D

but yeah no one 'believes' in charts here it's pretty dumb. i only heeded ineededausername's technical analysis while mine was still weak when i first invested. but then he completely miscalled the RALLY TO $8. and i've been largely accurate since new years.


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: BadBear on January 27, 2012, 06:32:16 PM
but yeah no one 'believes' in charts here

What gives you that idea?


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: arepo on January 27, 2012, 06:34:12 PM
but yeah no one 'believes' in charts here

What gives you that idea?

uh, my other thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=61354.0)


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: N12 on January 27, 2012, 06:41:11 PM
but yeah no one 'believes' in charts here

What gives you that idea?

uh, my other thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=61354.0)
That’s not true, many here post and analyze charts.

Perhaps I should contribute something too, as I just recently set up my SierraChart again: http://www.sierrachart.com/userimages/upload_2/1327689495742.png

Should’ve put a bit of money on the upper trendline for the short-term bounce.


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: ineededausername on January 27, 2012, 06:50:18 PM
Completely agree. The Manipulator is an excuse for bad trading so you can self-victimize.

Also, I like arepo, please continue posting. Much better than a FlipPro. ;D

flattered :D

but yeah no one 'believes' in charts here it's pretty dumb. i only heeded ineededausername's technical analysis while mine was still weak when i first invested. but then he completely miscalled the RALLY TO $8. and i've been largely accurate since new years.

heh, I gave up after that :P


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: elux on January 27, 2012, 06:51:28 PM
Every time I hear "The Manipulator", I reach for my gun.


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: BadBear on January 27, 2012, 06:51:52 PM
but yeah no one 'believes' in charts here

What gives you that idea?

uh, my other thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=61354.0)

I wouldn't take a couple people arguing semantics and some off topic crap as everybody. People who get mad and complain about the manipulator are usually just angry that they lost money and need something besides themselves to blame. Besides, the OP in that thread is hardly conducive to getting a good discussion on charting analysis if that's what you were hoping for. Most of them are just trolling you cause they see how bothered you get. 


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: arepo on January 27, 2012, 06:55:33 PM
but yeah no one 'believes' in charts here

What gives you that idea?

uh, my other thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=61354.0)

I wouldn't take a couple people arguing semantics and some off topic crap as everybody. People who get mad and complain about the manipulator are usually just angry that they lost money and need something besides themselves to blame. Besides, the OP in that thread is hardly conducive to getting a good discussion on charting analysis if that's what you were hoping for.  

i was just pointing out a couple rather obvious signals :D


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: Serge on January 27, 2012, 07:09:28 PM
ok, so the instant large change in order book from bids to asks not so long ago was an effect of Bitcoinica? doubtful


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: Dutch Merganser on January 27, 2012, 07:42:20 PM
Wow you really are the first one to make this point. I'm sure you've changed the minds of many people and started a snowball effect of change.  

maybe for a lot of people here, this is their first experience trading and it's obvious during some of the non-manipulated price swings that there is some serious panic buying/selling going on.

are you patronizing me for presenting good advice in a relatively novel way? patience is important.

Evidently, for some people here, manipulative promotion and trading of a microcap issue is wholly outside of their experience. Observing that bitcoin presents a sterling opportunity to practice such well-known scheming must be motivated by sour grapes over a trading loss, paranoia, or ill will of some sort. After all, this isn't the pink sheets, this is the world's first decentralized Massively Multiplayer Online Monetary System, MMOMS for short.

Cool by me, keep up the good work.


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: FlipPro on January 27, 2012, 07:57:29 PM
Completely agree. The Manipulator is an excuse for bad trading so you can self-victimize.

Also, I like arepo, please continue posting. Much better than a FlipPro. ;D
LOL Why bring me into the convo?  :-*


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: arepo on January 27, 2012, 07:58:31 PM
Wow you really are the first one to make this point. I'm sure you've changed the minds of many people and started a snowball effect of change.  

maybe for a lot of people here, this is their first experience trading and it's obvious during some of the non-manipulated price swings that there is some serious panic buying/selling going on.

are you patronizing me for presenting good advice in a relatively novel way? patience is important.

Evidently, for some people here, manipulative promotion and trading of a microcap issue is wholly outside of their experience. Observing that bitcoin presents a sterling opportunity to practice such well-known scheming must be motivated by sour grapes over a trading loss, paranoia, or ill will of some sort. After all, this isn't the pink sheets, this is the world's first decentralized Massively Multiplayer Online Monetary System, MMOMS for short.

Cool by me, keep up the good work.


no ill will at all. i am not commenting on the so-called 'manipulators'. i am commenting on the behavior of the panic traders who amplify the momentum of an already volatile market.

just, trade patiently. how is that getting misconstrued here? :D


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: arepo on January 27, 2012, 07:59:08 PM
Completely agree. The Manipulator is an excuse for bad trading so you can self-victimize.

Also, I like arepo, please continue posting. Much better than a FlipPro. ;D
LOL Why bring me into the convo?  :-*

haha apparently i make better predictions. come at me brah 8)


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: FlipPro on January 27, 2012, 08:01:40 PM
Completely agree. The Manipulator is an excuse for bad trading so you can self-victimize.

Also, I like arepo, please continue posting. Much better than a FlipPro. ;D
LOL Why bring me into the convo?  :-*

haha apparently i make better predictions. come at me brah 8)
I agree with this post..

The manipulator is the collective mind of a bunch of newb traders getting owned.

If this market was a bit more mature, we would already be back at double digits by now...


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: arepo on January 27, 2012, 08:38:27 PM
Completely agree. The Manipulator is an excuse for bad trading so you can self-victimize.

Also, I like arepo, please continue posting. Much better than a FlipPro. ;D
LOL Why bring me into the convo?  :-*

haha apparently i make better predictions. come at me brah 8)
I agree with this post..

The manipulator is the collective mind of a bunch of newb traders getting owned.

If this market was a bit more mature, we would already be back at double digits by now...

i agree completely. shorting and doubt are dampening the price, on the 6-month-scale. there was about as much money in the economy on the eve of the supposed $8 RALLY as there was at the peak of the summer bubble. bitcoin is indeed quite UNDERVALUED right now, on the long-term.


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: BTConomist on January 27, 2012, 08:46:39 PM

bitcoin is indeed quite UNDERVALUED right now, on the long-term.

What gives you that idea?

Or do you not believe in perishable gold?


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: Bigpiggy01 on January 27, 2012, 08:48:57 PM
Quote
Quote from: arepo on Today at 08:38:27 PM

bitcoin is indeed quite UNDERVALUED right now, on the long-term.

What gives you that idea?

Or do you not believe in perishable gold?

Ummm dude can't you even do simple division?


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: arepo on January 27, 2012, 08:54:20 PM

bitcoin is indeed quite UNDERVALUED right now, on the long-term.

What gives you that idea?

Or do you not believe in perishable gold?

the text you clipped from my quote answers your question...  ???


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: BTConomist on January 27, 2012, 08:56:44 PM
Quote
Quote from: arepo on Today at 08:38:27 PM

bitcoin is indeed quite UNDERVALUED right now, on the long-term.

What gives you that idea?

Or do you not believe in perishable gold?

Ummm dude can't you even do simple division?

Hmmm... let me see here.... nope, still nothing. Let's see what you got?


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: Serge on January 27, 2012, 09:04:16 PM
Quote
Quote from: arepo on Today at 08:38:27 PM

bitcoin is indeed quite UNDERVALUED right now, on the long-term.

What gives you that idea?

Or do you not believe in perishable gold?

Ummm dude can't you even do simple division?

Hmmm... let me see here.... nope, still nothing. Let's see what you got?

quite simple, if people buy in at whatever rates they buy, it means people believe that it worth at least more, from trading perspective
there is no other real value associated with bitcoin other than what it's being traded for



Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: BTConomist on January 27, 2012, 09:07:32 PM

bitcoin is indeed quite UNDERVALUED right now, on the long-term.

What gives you that idea?

Or do you not believe in perishable gold?

the text you clipped from my quote answers your question...  ???

Not completely... some details/assumptions would be nice.


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: Bro on January 28, 2012, 06:01:52 PM
so you guys said the manipulator(s) was gonna bring that bitch down to 3$ again

where is my 3$ ??


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: bittenbob on January 28, 2012, 06:10:23 PM
I am beginning to wonder if $5 is the new $2. When we were trading in the $2-$3 range everyone was saying how they were waiting for sub $2 and $1 Bitcoins. Well then we took off to 7 in a matter of days so who knows what is going on here. Those who are waiting for sub $5 Bitcoins this time might not see them again.


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: arepo on January 28, 2012, 06:12:10 PM
so you guys said the manipulator(s) was gonna bring that bitch down to 3$ again

where is my 3$ ??

clearly listening to the wrong people


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: arepo on January 28, 2012, 06:14:04 PM
I am beginning to wonder if $5 is the new $2. When we were trading in the $2-$3 range everyone was saying how they were waiting for sub $2 and $1 Bitcoins. Well then we took off to 7 in a matter of days so who knows what is going on here. Those who are waiting for sub $5 Bitcoins this time might not see them again.

good call. i agree. it looks low, and terrible, so everyone's upset. this is called pessimism. if we're lucky there will be no panic, and the bull market can start up again.

congratulations, sir, you identified a market bottom using sentiment alone :D


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: bittenbob on January 28, 2012, 06:32:19 PM
I am beginning to wonder if $5 is the new $2. When we were trading in the $2-$3 range everyone was saying how they were waiting for sub $2 and $1 Bitcoins. Well then we took off to 7 in a matter of days so who knows what is going on here. Those who are waiting for sub $5 Bitcoins this time might not see them again.

good call. i agree. it looks low, and terrible, so everyone's upset. this is called pessimism. if we're lucky there will be no panic, and the bull market can start up again.

congratulations, sir, you identified a market bottom using sentiment alone :D

I have found sentiment to be the most accurate indicator of all. When everyone is screaming rally we are due for a correction and when everyone is screaming crash its time for a rally.


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: YoYa on January 28, 2012, 06:33:24 PM
THE MaNiPuLaToR REVEALED!!!!!11!!!2!£

https://i.imgur.com/mDURk.jpg


DA DUH DEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: arepo on January 28, 2012, 06:41:26 PM
I am beginning to wonder if $5 is the new $2. When we were trading in the $2-$3 range everyone was saying how they were waiting for sub $2 and $1 Bitcoins. Well then we took off to 7 in a matter of days so who knows what is going on here. Those who are waiting for sub $5 Bitcoins this time might not see them again.

good call. i agree. it looks low, and terrible, so everyone's upset. this is called pessimism. if we're lucky there will be no panic, and the bull market can start up again.

congratulations, sir, you identified a market bottom using sentiment alone :D

I have found sentiment to be the most accurate indicator of all. When everyone is screaming rally we are due for a correction and when everyone is screaming crash its time for a rally.

+1



Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: GeniuSxBoY on January 28, 2012, 07:41:59 PM
The manipulator or manipulators (at any given moment) are those active bitcoiners with a value of $500,000 or 100,000 bitcoins. Simply having $1 mill can move us up to $8 or simply having 100,000 bitcoins can move us down to $4.


It does take rocket science to know that 1% of us have that kind of money  ;D


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: StewartJ on January 28, 2012, 08:08:22 PM
The manipulator or manipulators (at any given moment) are those active bitcoiners with a value of $500,000 or 100,000 bitcoins. Simply having $1 mill can move us up to $8 or simply having 100,000 bitcoins can move us down to $4.


It does take rocket science to know that 1% of us have that kind of money  ;D

And just common sense for the 10% to know when to ride the money.


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: YoYa on January 28, 2012, 08:14:56 PM
The manipulator or manipulators (at any given moment) are those active bitcoiners with a value of $500,000 or 100,000 bitcoins. Simply having $1 mill can move us up to $8 or simply having 100,000 bitcoins can move us down to $4.


It does take rocket science to know that 1% of us have that kind of money  ;D

What does it matter if it's one person or a thousand with smaller amounts, all that matters is that it moves and you're on the right side of it.

[/thread]


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: StewartJ on January 28, 2012, 08:59:41 PM
so you guys said the manipulator(s) was gonna bring that bitch down to 3$ again

where is my 3$ ??

Begging for bitcoins... mmmmmmm.....


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: StewartJ on January 28, 2012, 09:02:12 PM
The manipulator or manipulators (at any given moment) are those active bitcoiners with a value of $500,000 or 100,000 bitcoins. Simply having $1 mill can move us up to $8 or simply having 100,000 bitcoins can move us down to $4.


It does take rocket science to know that 1% of us have that kind of money  ;D

What does it matter if it's one person or a thousand with smaller amounts, all that matters is that it moves and you're on the right side of it.

[/thread]

It matters because the actions of a thousand are a lot easier to anticipate than the actions of one person.

Yes, 300 views in the Rally Thread in the space of 10 minutes is very instructional indeed.


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: YoYa on January 28, 2012, 10:33:33 PM
The manipulator or manipulators (at any given moment) are those active bitcoiners with a value of $500,000 or 100,000 bitcoins. Simply having $1 mill can move us up to $8 or simply having 100,000 bitcoins can move us down to $4.


It does take rocket science to know that 1% of us have that kind of money  ;D

What does it matter if it's one person or a thousand with smaller amounts, all that matters is that it moves and you're on the right side of it.

[/thread]

It matters because the actions of a thousand are a lot easier to anticipate than the actions of one person.

Fair point, especially when it comes to charts. Hmmmm, I don't know tho, any market is going to have big players. Forex moves can be jumped by both states and banks, in both cases powerful individual entities and I doubt many seriously suggest the Forex manipulator exists. Add to that, as soon as you have two powerful individuals, competing motives start to enter the picture, then add the thousands of players.....pretty soon you're heading back towards normal market entropy, or so my thought process would imply, but you're welcome to correct me on that.


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: arepo on January 28, 2012, 11:12:46 PM
The manipulator or manipulators (at any given moment) are those active bitcoiners with a value of $500,000 or 100,000 bitcoins. Simply having $1 mill can move us up to $8 or simply having 100,000 bitcoins can move us down to $4.


It does take rocket science to know that 1% of us have that kind of money  ;D

What does it matter if it's one person or a thousand with smaller amounts, all that matters is that it moves and you're on the right side of it.

[/thread]

It matters because the actions of a thousand are a lot easier to anticipate than the actions of one person.

is that so much the case?


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: stochastic on January 29, 2012, 12:35:31 AM
oh yes, the bitcoin economy is completely controlled by a powerful, omni-wealthy entity who chooses to move the price around at will, for their own sick enjoyment.

sounds as bs as any abrahamic religion if you ask me.

we have an instinctive tendency to ascribe intelligence to randomness and see design where there is none.

it is, actually, just like the abrahamic religions, a great way to avoid responsibility. hurricanes are not punishments. they are wake-up calls. each one of us here in this subforum is responsible for the volatility we are seeing.

just trade patiently

This is exactly what the MaNiPuLaToR would say.  ;)


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: film2240 on January 29, 2012, 12:54:00 AM
I used to think that BTC would help me make money in a manner that escapes control but after learning of the manipulator's involvement in changing the currency's value,I can no longer trust BTC as a viable idea for my needs and will switch back to making money with GBP as soon as I can get a 1/3 of the payback of my hardware in BTC (which will be by May this year.Already made approx £90 over the course of several months as I entered BTC last june as the price crashes came).

The only reason why I even use BTC at all now is the more anonymous nature of recieving payments (not as anoymous as cash of course but hey,better than bank cards) and the fact I can 'store' a large amount of money in BTC form on a USB drive for trouble free experience when travelling across borders (still having more than €10,000 in cash where I am must be declared when travelling within/out of EU as you have to pay a tax while keeping such large amount of cash.)

I really do wonder why the manipulator would be willing to meddle with BTC value (apart from profiting himself obviously but there has to be another reason why he's doing this).Will BTC be valuable in a significant way like last June (before the hack)? If so,what kind of time scale should we expect this to happen in (as a few months seems out of the question now)?


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: arepo on January 29, 2012, 07:07:18 PM

bitcoin is indeed quite UNDERVALUED right now, on the long-term.

What gives you that idea?

Or do you not believe in perishable gold?

the text you clipped from my quote answers your question...  ???

Not completely... some details/assumptions would be nice.

Quote from: arepo
there was about as much money in the economy on the eve of the supposed $8 RALLY as there was at the peak of the summer bubble.

http://s7.postimage.org/wnpv8el2j/chart.png


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: bittenbob on January 29, 2012, 07:19:31 PM

bitcoin is indeed quite UNDERVALUED right now, on the long-term.

What gives you that idea?

Or do you not believe in perishable gold?

the text you clipped from my quote answers your question...  ???

Not completely... some details/assumptions would be nice.

Quote from: arepo
there was about as much money in the economy on the eve of the supposed $8 RALLY as there was at the peak of the summer bubble.

http://s7.postimage.org/wnpv8el2j/chart.png

Looking at the PVT there it has flattened out which seems to usually signal a reversal in direction. In this case it means we are probably going up and so is the price in the medium term.


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: arepo on February 02, 2012, 07:51:22 AM
the bid depth now looks unsettlingly similar to the ask depth that disintegrated after the big buy... so there does seem to be a mtgox-depth manipulator.


Title: Re: the MaNiPuLaToR
Post by: chsados on February 02, 2012, 07:58:41 AM
the bid depth now looks unsettlingly similar to the ask depth that disintegrated after the big buy... so there does seem to be a mtgox-depth manipulator.

i was thinking the same thing.