Bitcoin Forum

bitcoin is trading around 450$ since like some two months. should i expect the price to rise? if yes, then why and when?

I think it will be flat for a while. This is a good thing as volatility limits the utility of it as a means of exchange. As adoption grows the value with grow with it. I think we are done with speculative bubbles for a little while.   

I am thinking the same thing. What people aren't realizing is that the market cap is increasing, even though the price per coin isn't (because there are another 25 BTC per 10m being released, which at the current rate is almost $60k an hour added to the market cap). As Bitcoin creation slows down due to halving, we can expect more increases. There are just too many coins being made now compared to the amount of money being added to the economy.

okay. yes i agree that price will rise when production of the coins get halved. but when will it get halved? i wud want to hold onto my coins till then

Another 3 years or so. The last halving was 4 years after BTC was released (2009->2013). Next one should be in 2017.

will rise when the demand for btc rises.

Not in the current horizon of events, but will happen sooner or later

how much do you expect the btc to rise within this month period?

Eh, not a lot, really. It'll halve from 25 to 12.5, so that means there is still (assuming the price is as it is right now) around 30k per hour being added. I mean that could help overtake the money being added into the economy by a lot, but it's hard to really tell.

In 3-4 weeks, but slow rise, don't expect fireworks until at least September.

I agree with most of things already stated but somehow I do not like this prolonged period of stagnation. I agree this is great as a sign of market stabilization but what I do not understand is how it is possible that the price stays at the same level when we see lots of new users/miners/investors every day, creating additional demand for BTC. We all know that the quantity of BTC supplied to the market is more less the same since difficulty has been adjusting constantly to accommodate this. So, we have been having 140ish BTC added to the market every hour and the supply constantly goes up, why is the price stagnant? Why do I have a feeling someone has been dumping BTC for a long time, thus suppressing the price. Gox anyone?

Only investors create additional demand, miners actually create supply unless they don't sell what they have mined.

The price is stagnant because demand = supply. Simple as that.

Someone sure is dumping BTC, but someone is also buying. No clear winners right now, so only time will tell if bulls or bears win.

You mean 150 BTC per hour is added. This means, at the current rate, around 60k per hour. If there's not more than that being invested, the price will go down or stay equal.

The amusing thing about $60k/hour, thats $1.4M/day. Or $43M/month.
Now consider the fact that under current rates no available or announced ASIC miner will break even. In other words, the hardware industry centered around bitcoin is making a revenue in excess or $43M/month.
In the current state the hardware industry are the only ones with a vested interest in keeping bitcoin price stable to keep the sales of hardware up and running. However a couple of hardware vendors already filed for bankruptcy or are targeted by lawsuits. Thats bound to create a back lash sooner or later.
Unless something drasticly changes to bring more investors into BTC i wouldnt expect any long term rise until next reward halvings (or even the one after that).

A lot more money is still waiting to buy or it's on the way to do so. All the big companies will move in sooner or later but they need to go through their bureaucratic meetings and licenses first. Some big funds have bought on the top at US$1,000, one of the reasons it stayed up there quite some time.

According to http://bitcoinclock.com/ next reward drop estimated at 2016-8-18.

Things that could cause the value to go up:

* A trusted exchange.  This will take a while, because a lot of people got burned by Mt. Gox.  People need a place where they feel comfortable leaving 10s of thousands of dollars and that they won't lose it all because of some crook.  Volume is nearly nothing right now because nobody wants to leave money on a Slovenian or Bulgarian exchange.

* Less supply.  If these stolen coins from Gox are slowly being sold off right now, then it will take until they run out for things to change.

* Halving.  This will happen in the middle of 2016, about 2 years from now.

* SEC-regulated funds. Once a fund (like the Winklevoss fund) is approved, not only can IRA and 401k ("retirement" money) in the US come in, but also mutual fund managers can add it to their funds as well.  They are ALWAYS looking for any way to improve their percentage, and I personally think that this event will be the vertical of the adoption curve, since every fund will try to do what all the other funds are doing to get that high percentage rate increase.  As with anything, the last ones to this party will lose and the early movers will win (and that includes us hodlers).

A lot can happen in this time. I think we will see some large price movements long before the next reward halving. Too much going on behind the scenes. Plus, people (*miners*) take this into account and start pricing it in long before it actually happens,.

Now is good.   ;)

I actually do think we are on the precipice of the next major bubble.  We have felt the "squeeze" of the price this past couple of weeks with very low volatility and movement.  It seems the "dumpers" are not successful now in lowering the price any further.  The sellers have all sold and now we are just in a short period of time before the buying begins.  It will start off gradually, kind of like a dam that has a leak.  It will slowly trickle then suddenly burst!  Tons of fun if you have been through them before.  This will be my third bubble.  The first one totally shocked me and unfortunately I did not have much invested in BTC at the time.  The second one (in November) was somewhat expected but still surprised me at how suddenly it happened.  This one coming up next almost feels totally expected.  It is like I have been pregnant for months just waiting for the "due date."  I guess that is an analogy only a woman can give!   ;D

I think a lot of big investors are already stocking up. They are just doing it smart, which is to take it slow so as to not ramp up the prices while buying. I'm positive there are major investors that already have tens of thousands and are waiting for the price to go up.

based on my secret facts and sources, Obama owns 2 million BTC, we just dont know it yet. Putin has only 1.5 million Bitcoins. It must be true because i blindly wish it.

Putin only owns dogecoin
http://d.ibtimes.co.uk/en/full/1354600/dogecoin-meme.jpg

My question is..... how long can prices remain deflated before long term holders that are under water, including large miners that continue to mine at a loss, begin to liquidate their holdings? Are we guaranteed a fat price rice befgore then?

That's a hard one to answer, because I think a lot of people are going to jump ship at the 1k mark (like we saw last year). Basically I see it as being like a wave. We'll hit ATH, people will jump ship and lower the price. It will climb back up, hopefully past the ATH the next time, and the cycle will continue.

Many of us expected that people would "jump ship" when the price reached the $266 ATH in November.  Some people sold at that that price, of course, but then the price continued to climb up to over $1000.  I wouldn't really be that concerned.  It might bounce around $1000 for a day or so but it won't stay at that price long I believe.

There's a massive difference between $266 and $1k though. That's like saying that because it pushes through to $2k, people wouldn't jump ship at $10 million. Major differences there.

In any case, I have no doubt that the price will continue to climb. It's just going to create waves while it happens.

There was a "massive difference" for each ATH.  It is all about the adoption rate and the number of people involved now.  If we look strictly at the math then there should be no problem getting to 2K on the next run.  It would be a pitiful run if it doesn't and the weakest Bubble in Bitcoin's history if the peak was only at 2K from where it is now.

One must keep in mind the volume profile. How many bought at 700-1100? How many of those will be jumping at the chance to get out at breakeven or profit? How did this differ from 266?

I'm talking about $ amounts. Let's say there's 1000 coins.

BTC is $1. Market cap is $1000
BTC goes up to $25. Market cap is $25000 (+24000)
BTC goes up to $300. Market cap is $300000 (+275000)
BTC goes up to $1200. Market cap is $1200000 (+900000)

We're not looking at how $1200 is only 4x $300. We're looking at how much more money the system has to get to meet that goal.

From personal experience, I purchased a small amount of coin close to $266 (granted it was not much but I did pay close to that price) then I had a long and painful Summer.  The thought crossed my mind that maybe Bitcoin was not going anywhere but when the price started rising again the funny thing was that it became tempting to buy even more!  Of course, I have been a holder since the beginning.  I believe in the long-term success of Bitcoin and I am not a day-trader so I am not trying to take advantage of the swings in price.  If we really believe the price is going to at least $10,000 at some point then the smart thing for some of us to do is just buy as much as possible at as good of a price as we can and just wait and ride out the ups and downs.  That said, my husband and I are planning on systematically selling of a small percentage at certain peaks in price, and perhaps buying back in a little bit here and there on the dips, but I really think most people will not be trying to "get out" of Bitcoin as the price rises.  It will have quite the opposite effect for a while.

With more people comes more $.  ;)

It really isn't going to be a problem. 

I think that is just natural. People don't want to "get out" when price is going up because they get greedy. They want to "get out" when price is going down because they get fearful.

I think much depends on the speed of a rise towards $1000. If it was a grind upwards over months and months then I guess many would unload out of sheer boredom and relief once it got there.

If it was looking explosive then good old greed would take over and many would sit tight and wait to see where it ended up.

It's the opposite. If it went up slowly people would dump on the way up. If it shot up, people would try to guess what the top is and dump in the hopes that it'll drop by 50% again and they can buy in for 2x as many coins.

It just depends on the person and when they purchased Bitcoin and it could also depend on their reasons for purchasing it.  Then there are tax ramifications for cashing out that might cause some to want to hold for longer.  I know that I personally wasn't in a place to sell last year when we reached $1000 because I would have had to pay short term capital gains taxes.  Of course, there are those that try to avoid taxation (buying gift cards or whatever else they do) but I happen to try my best to be a law abiding citizen.  Shocking I know. ;)

It really is not all that simple and some people will want to buy and hold until they get to $100,000 if it really does get there.

Yes. Wednesday. The next cycle is due. ;)

Wednesday it is then!  I second that!!!  ;D

Motion carried!

Then I hope you become the next octomom!  :D

first start a college fund
http://media-cache-ec0.pinimg.com/236x/f7/2e/07/f72e074cc1933f1d4130d9c21dbc3b2c.jpg

It's a matter of quantum physics.  If you don't look at the price it starts to skyrocket.
Science bitch!

Not to be a cute or anything but...


 When Overall Demand exceeds Supplies the Price per Bitcoin will again appreciably rise.

 Mining keeps on expanding Supply to add to the equation and puzzle the OP desires an answer for.


 Be patient. Think in terms of Years, not weeks or months if one is desiring realized gains. Odds are very high the results will be a positive experience if one keeps their patience. In the near term there is going to be much price volatility while Bitcoin stays in it's Growth stages for at least the next several years or longer unless suddenly it's fully catapulted into the mainstream. When that finally occurs and it's commonly used then the volatility in pricing will likely be much less but still Bitcoin is apt to keep growing in value per bitcoin simply because of it's limited amounts.


P.S. - Don't forget to utilize and freely spend some bitcoins too, get them in circulation. Rinse, Repeat.


Now...


Re: When do you expect the price of btc to rise?
-------------------------------------------------------

0 to 7 months from now the price of btc is extremely likely to rise.


 It occurs suddenly, often with little or no warning, and often amazingly with full fury of the marketplace.
It could be in the next hour, or not until a few years from now. But that isn't remotely likely.


 Major growth is in store in the weeks and months ahead for Bitcoin.
==========================================


0 to 7 months from now the price of btc is extremely likely to rise.


 Better get a bit of Bitcoin.


 Save some, spend some, enjoy ushering in a big part of the future.
 Help ween us all off debt based fiat currencies.
 Help break those debt chains that enslave us all.
 Help governments to break free of debt based currencies.
 It's the Future, debt FREE currencies. So is Bitcoin.


Bitcoin is The Future.

I'm starting to feel like I'm taking potshots at this but I think that by August we will be in a bullish cycle
The trigger or series of events that lead towards this price though remain to be seen

Bitcoin *IS* our college fund.

It's an interesting thing to think about for sure. We all have our ideas on what's going to happen, but we could also all be wrong, :p. Cryptos have proven to be a wild beast in the past.

It will rise when the Regulation  good  for BTC is.
So,I expect a solid uptrend Mid/End of June
The Action now is too early to be considered a start of a rally