Bitcoin Forum

This prediction is still on track....

Strap yourself in people. This will be a year to remember.

CHOO CHOO!

I agree. I'm buying a little at a time right now. I pity the timid ones looking from the sideline.

$6000 - $20,000 by end of year I think is indicated if lining up the peaks on a semi log chart over the last few years, no?  This time I need to be careful about feeling greedy and gradually sell until mostly fiat when reaching that top area, so money is available to buy back when it establishes a seemngly endless extended downtrend is it was doing until recently.

Are you guys really that optimistic? I can see over $1000 again no problem, maybe 2 max but 5k is gonna take a while longer than half a year methinks  :)

there has been a repeating pattern of going super-exponential, increasing 10-fold in about 60 days as panic-buying mania takes hold.

reserved

:D

While I would love nothing more than to see it jump that high I just don't see it happening. Possibly 1000-1200 by end of the year and 800 by end of July is my prediction.

In the meantime please share what you guys are smoking cause I need some.

Too all the bears and you know who you are...SUck it  :D

Bitcoin :Housten We Have lift Off
Housten : Bitcoin Destination ...DA MOON !!!

Ah grasshopper we smokin da good shiz

Its called been there done that

Put every last cent you can spare and go "ALL IN"

Sub 600 is still a very safe place

Only use what you can afford

Somehow I think this bubble will be smaller than the others.

First bubble of 2013 we grew like x8.
Next bubble of 2013 we grew like x5
I predict the third bubble this time of 2014, we will grow like x3 to about $3500.

those are not unreasonable figures  ;)

What we are smoking is last year we started at $13 and hit $1260.

Past performance is no guarantee of future returns though.

I think I am expecting the $3000 USD ($300x10) range by the end of the year.

I agree and we will have a our crash down to the 1k support line

Pplz will be talking about cheap coinz at the 900-1000 USD mark :D

I think we are going to have massive resistance even at the $1000 level.   I would love to see us hit $5000, but I really don't see how we would get there by the end of this year.   Has anyone done the math on what percent price increase we would need every day in order to reach $5000 by the end of the year?

2% everyday?

We can make it!

1.2%, roughly.

1.012^200 = 10.87

so a factor of 10 over roughly 200 days.

Ok..thanks!  When it is broken down like that, it seems very plausible.  Obviously, we are not going to go up every single day, but having a couple +9%-10% days like we have been having are really good...

http://bitcoinowl.com/sites/default/files/chart-new-1.jpg

http://bitcoinowl.com/how-does-my-bitcoin-price-prediction-2014-holding

I always seem to underestimate the peaks.

Last time I thought we would only hit $1000...we went to $1200.

Prior to that I thought we would hit $150 and we went to $266.

I think its better to get a % amount of highs wrong than the lows IMHO

The current long time trend channel (started in Jan 2013) on a logarithmic scale is pointing to ~2150$ by end of 2014 (this is the low and it is obtained connecting the 2013 start low, the Silk Road bust minimum and the 19/05/2014 minimum.

The top was around 9x the lower trend line in April 2013 and November 2013.

The main difference between the bottoms is SR  (October 2013) was a market capitulation with high volume and sudden drop of the price, where the bottom of 2014 is more a saucer shaped bottom with a "slower" rise. (Slower for Bitcoin standard).

If you connect the Jan 9 2012, April 4 2013 and Jan 4 2014 (they are on a pretty line) they form a second top alignment around 6-7x of the base trend.

So, by end of 2014 we should be between 2K and 12K.

If we replicate the "60 days parabolics" we should hit 6k by July 20 2014, then correct at least to 3K if not 2K.
If we do, we could have enough time to be again in a uptrend by end of year.

But a lot depend on external factors like the Fed, the ECB, the BoJ, the market of gold and silver, bank failures and assorted Armageddons.
By end of July the exchange rate could peak at 8K if there are enough "good" news (depending on your point of view).

There seems to be a consensus that we will hit at least $1000 by year end....at the absolute least.

That's still pretty good even though I won't sell at that price.

If you cans till believe it, you're not aiming high enough ;)

Good analysis.

As a reply to some of the earlier posts: I'm failing to see any analysis supporting the position of "well, I just can't see how we hit 4k, 5k etc. by the end of the year". It seems to stem from a general ignorance to bitcoin's historic price rises and a lazy and arbitrary sentiment of "wow that is a lot of money, I just can't imagine how 1 bitcoin could be worth that much ... not yet at least". You saw the same type of posts when bitcoin was $100 and $1,000+ was the "wow that is a lot of money... I can't imagine". And then $1,000+ happened much the same way $250 happened before it.

Bitcoin isn't going to ATH at $1,300, then hang around there for some months and then rise some more later this year or next. If it is going to ATH it is going to go 5xATH and then gradually fall to 2xpreviousATH over the course of several months, like it has done almost every time.

This is a very tricky descision, i wouldnt sell at that price too , probably i would sell at 4-5 k but just to rebuy when it crash to 3k and hold it until we reach 10k or 20k ;)

Classic smoothie thread.

If we keep going x4, x3 , x2, x1,5 every 7 months I would be ok with that :D

but I think it will be more :D :D :D

Classic.

I'm wondering if we are about to get into a panic buying spree soon. It's slowly going  up but toucan feel the momentum picking up. $400 seems like a thing of the past that's for sure.

750+ and it will hit Overdrive  8)

Ok... I've been a long-term bitcoin bull since I first really researched it in 2011. But you guys with your charts are grasping at air. Humans are natural pattern seekers, so this is all very tempting, but you're drawing conclusions based on a sample-set of 2 (and not to mention while also ignoring the 2011-2013 peak-to-peak of 20 months).

Look at it from a market-cap and global-influence perspective. Something going from a $100M to $1B market cap is going from a pittance to....still a pittance. Thus, there are many dynamics that can cause such a thing to happen. We're probably still in that realm going from $1B to $10B. Ten billion is still small in terms of global finance. There are plenty of *individuals* with higher net worth, and hundreds if not thousands of equities.

But the next order of magnitude up crosses a line. At $100B, there are only a few global equities with higher market-cap, zero individuals, and we're starting to get into the M2 money-supply range of somewhat important nations. Go toward $200-$500B and we're in serious global influence territory. Crossing that line out of "not globally important" is a big deal, and it can't happen easily.

That said, I think we *can* get to $30B-$50B market-cap on largely the same dynamics that have brought us this far. To get above, that, though, bitcoin will have to win some major battles.

Congrats guys on getting rich ! Finally I've recovered my losses and I'm on the profit side ! Guess it was a hard lesson day trading back in december-january.

will be even more classic IF I am right. :P

Great comment, melbustus. Thanks.

Similar to an argument I play out in my head occasionally. 100B (or somewhere around there) crosses into a new territory, imo. Marx' Umschlag von Quantität und Qualität comes to mind (the transition from a difference in quantity to a difference in quality.)

Just to play devil's advocate, I want to say that perhaps market cap might not be the one true indicator of when we move from pittance to globally important.

I serve this with a large helping of salt, but roughly speaking it looks like a n^x increase in price only requires xn in fiat volume. That is to say that if the market cap was to increase exponentially, the fiat needed to support that price only appears to increase geometrically.

This is a loose observation just glancing quickly at price /volume in fiat and necessarily means looking back at gox data, so theres potentially interference, and more than likely a bit of wishful thinking :)

What it might mean (here's that wishful thinking) is that the move to $10k could still happen without a globally significant amount of fiat backing it, and that it might be a move to $100k that would necessitate the transition to quality.

Of course bear in mind that I'm the frothy mouthed kind of bitcoin nutter that thinks the willy report is long term bullish ;)

If we are lucky, we'll reach the $1000 mark by the end of the year. $5000 is just nonsense.

thanks for sharing your wisdom, newbie.

Only way we'll be at $5k by the end of the year is if someone unleashes another Markus and Willy.

Good point. But there are two ways to look at the question "what kind of price increase will be possible assuming we are fundamentally 'the same' as now?".

One way is to look at it causally, what you seem to do, looking at USD volume in relation to XBT/USD. The other way is what I did (and I think melbustus as well): without speculating on the exact cause that would prevent us from reaching the level of the "global players", we assume we won't reach that level until some fundamentals change qualitatively (say: merchant adoption reaches a point where large companies need to report on their XBT turnover vs. their USD turnover... something like that), because the resultant capitalization would be a qualitative change. Circular argument, maybe, but based on experience/intuition, I suppose.


Anyway, I agree with you in that 10k XBT/USD might still be within reach of the "current level" of fundamentals... the (very vaguely defined) global player valuation is closer to 500B than 100B, imo, so 10k per coin at ~10M coins could still be possible.



Sure you mean "geometrically"? A geometric series still undergoes exponential growth. You formula seems to imply linear growth in fiat vs. exponential growth in XBT/USD.

I'm wondering though, how do you get to that formula? It's, well, one of my "pet projects", to find a way to analyze USD volume as a predictor for XBT/USD, but that ratio is not something I personally found yet, and I admit, I'm also a bit skeptical about it. Care to motivate it a bit more?

Not really.  During the Nov run up, I estimate that deep pocket whale speculators (worldwide, mind you) pumped in about 10-20% of the fiat that brought us from $150 to $1100.  From a $1B market cap to a $12B market cap.  Then they traded it back down, and left the market several weeks ago, leaving the market rock bottom at about $4.5B.  Now they are slowly starting to re-enter the market.  Provided 2-3X the number of whales come back into the market during the next run up, and we have 2-3X more bitcoiners joining the party by that point, hitting $5K/BTC should be trivial.

while i do agree that an increase in 'market cap' does not automatically mean the same amount of dollars entered the system (in fact this is almost never the case), i do not know the relation it does have in reality.

But i do know that for the market cap to rise $40 million for example, far less money than $40 million is needed.

The report suggested ~$112Mil systematic injection.

So if say $560Mil came into BTC space, we'd be close to $5000+/BTC ? Assuming there's a correlation.

I'm no whale, but isn't $1/2Billion "chump change", relatively?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iTBODoBaCns



I don't think we'll hit $5000 range in 6 months time, but just saying....   :)

I seriously don't think BTC will break $5k before the end of the year, let alone 2 months. Unless a large amount of fiat starts entering the BTC market in the next few weeks, we'll continue our cautious and steady upwards trend, but nowhere near $5k in the next 2 months.

OP is very smooth.  :D
My prediction is $3,200 to 3,800 for the upper range of the next big move....this year or next.

13 days to go. I guess it could happen, but we have a lot of ground to cover.  ;D

Heard about Dell. Went shopping. Price slightly up already. It's totally possible, all we need for big money now is the ETF and similar setups, and a lot of sideline money know it.

Short-live frenzy due to Dell might take us to near 640 but some people will dump nevertheless.

How cool would it be otherwise to have a new bubble started a few hours after Dell's anouncement?

Still 2 weeks to go before we are all rich!

Will donate 0.5 BTC to OP if BTC hits 5k$ before 1 August 2014 8)

Just wondering how much selling pressure these big companies make when they accept Bitcoin via payment processors who exchange coins to fiat. BitPay itself processes over $1M/day worth of bitcoin transactions - most of these coins are being exchanged for fiat. Good thing is that this also spreads the coins to larger crowd..

When I want to buy with Bitcoin, I first buy some new Bitcoin, then use that in my purchase.  I'm not touching my cold storage.  So that's a net wash in terms of buying vs selling pressure.  Though the sell always comes somewhat after the buy.  So you might say there is buying pressure for a short time.

i think thats the main point right now.
a company like dell accepting and promoting bitcoin will increase the adoption-rate and it will be only a matter of time (if its not already the case) that the companies will hold atleast x% of their bitcoins.

@thread

i would rather say new ath at end of the year - i jut dont see enough buy pressure

that seems to be the trend. when there's good news like this, it'll go up slightly, and then fall back roughly to where it started.

we really need the ETF to launch if we want to see bitcoin take off.

10 folds increase in 5 months is not a rational expectation from investor viewpoint.

Yeah but bitcoin is not a normal investment and that folds are more than usual in this enviroment.

Will donate 5 BTC to OP if BTC hits 5k$ before 1 August 2014 8)

Okay, we still got 11 days to make this happen. $540 gain in 11 days. Sounds daunting, and I'm sure we could do it if all the bulls hadn't already bought in. :P

Looks like at best I will be half right by year end.

Guys, the prediction is unrealistic. Hitting $500 is more realistic..

2500$ by year's end? Possible, but don't forget a small detail: you'll have to turn Chinese media positive on Bitcoin and have the PBoC reverse it's stance too.
Otherwise, in a bullish scenario, just breaking the ATH sometime in November - December. In a bearish scenario, capitulation below 340$.

There is a strong support at around 400 level, price below 350 is a good buy.

lol, optimist like you allways take the grim of my face.
But lets be objective for a second here, as you are talking about increasing the marketcap from roughly 8 billion to 64 billion usd.

Fast increase in price also means thinner support lines holding that price, and when u loose those due to some  guy's cashout, you also loose trust.
It is much better to return to 1k area and sit there for atleast few months , before considering higher numbers.

Ha, we could actually still see a new ATH this July, but I wouldn't want to bet on it. We'd need a big choo choo tonight or tomorrow to get the train started for next week. And I do expect a more gradually rise before the bubble (if it comes at all).

On both direction. Remember the risk associated with holding the coin.

we would hit 1000 tomorrow if people just knew how to hold and not sell!

I personally have a 25K CAD bet with my brother that BTC will hit $1000 this year. He's a fool. He's the only one I know who shorted BTC and also the only person I know who knew about bitcoin at 15$ and has lost money on it. (due to the shorting of course)


VIVA LA BITCOIN.. and litecoin... and cloakcoin!

A company that has a yearly revenue of $50+ billion just started accepting bitcoin for payment.

That should be a clear sign that Bitcoin can hit $50 billion easily as other merchants will flock to support bitcoin payments in the near future.

Bitcoin marketcap is ~$8 billion now. You do the math.  ;)

At this moment in time, the truth is that none of us no fucking  anything about what the price will be and when the price will hit said targets.

It's not going anywhere, and in my opinion it's only going to raise with a bit of time. I'm not basing this on past trends rather basing it on current news/happenings

Hi, so im trying to gather some opinions on this matter: I saw a recent comparasion with this graph to Bitcoin, im trying to study the similarities of the development in price of a successful business like MS that achieves global acceptance with Bitcoin, im still not convinced by the analogy but anyway, here is the graph and im willing to hear what are you thoughts on this:

https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fs9txjFP.jpg%26t%3D542%26c%3DwS4KogEqGWuJhg&t=542&c=VlEwy23hs-veGA (https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fs9txjFP.jpg%26t%3D542%26c%3DwS4KogEqGWuJhg&t=542&c=VlEwy23hs-veGA)

Also, another prediction i've heard a couple times is 1 trillion cap in less than 10 years, can it be done?:

https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fi4.minus.com%2FiLGzkQ56MlcWJ.jpg&t=542&c=4VVKCkgR3gizGQ (https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fi4.minus.com%2FiLGzkQ56MlcWJ.jpg&t=542&c=4VVKCkgR3gizGQ)

Why not donate 100 btc then? Since the odd of it happening in less than 10 days is virtually zero.

Half right as in my $5000 year end prediction.

And no Chinese can go suck it. Bitcoin doesn't care about China and all of their "bans".

Bitcoin doesn't need China.

Bitcoin > China

$500 is more likely but after this period of stagnation is time to start another rally.
Maybe it won't hit 5000$, but 1500$ will be enough!

Stagnation is the sign for strong rally in the past.

End of July is coming closer every day now.

The price is not going anywhere anytime soon unless some major news comes out that we all have not been aware of

Except every new major vendor that accepts Bitcoin actually puts downward selling pressure on the price, as they sell received Bitcoin for fiat. Going to take a while before all the big vendors stop doing that. Investors in your average company wouldn't be too happy about them holding company profits in a volatile investment instrument (BTC).

Long term I believe we're going way up. But I also believe it's going to take longer than people think.

Yes but you can't assume they sell 100% of their coins they collect either.

Dell's yearly revenue shows how big Bitcoin can grow.

You clearly are ignoring this glaring fact.

I'm not talking about the distant future of how big Bitcoin can grow. That is irrelevant. I'm talking about the present and immediate future. Some of these companies may hold a small amount of Bitcoin but you have to admit you are living in a Bitcoin bubble fantasy if you think most of these big vendors are holding onto their coins.

It's going to be a long while before the majority of big vendors don't auto trade most of their bitcoins into fiat. That's just a simple fact.

What we are going through is a painful transition period that I don't think many people saw coming a year ago, where each new major vendor announcement is actually ironically adding to Bitcoin selling pressure.

That said, everything I've written is of course moot if something causes an epic spike in buying pressure. Some say the ETF's and Wallstreet could spearhead the pump - myself, I am not so sure.

You may misinterpret me as bearish, I'm not. I have significant BTC holdings (all I will say is greater than 3 digits) and I'm a true believer in the long term which is why I hold. But I have a lot of uncertainty about the short term. I will be the first to go nuts if we hit $5k anytime in the next couple of years. I just don't see much happening in 2014 in terms of another crazy price rise like we've seen so many times in the past.

We shall see.

okay so we are discussing apples and oranges.

My thoughts were always long term.

Dell accepting BTC is a HUGE sign of things to come.

Anyone not getting aboard the train is going to be left behind for any scraps if there are any.

Complete agreement, on each of your points - long term: huge potential, short term: selling pressure outweighs buying pressure, mid term: not 100% certain what the next reliable "new fiat event" will be.

Ok so no bullshitting now, let's talk about the implications of ebay accepting Bitcoin. How would they deal with the fees? Like how would they benefit, given fee's are minimal to basically non existant with Bitcoin? They are right now making a killing with paypal, so.. from where would the benefits come for them if they accept Bitcoin?

I think it'll be one of the very final big companies to get in on the act myself, unless they find a way to turn themselves into some sort of quasi exchange with enormous fees on top. They'll carry on flirting though.

Good analysis! You've got some very valid facts and ideas there! But keep in mind that people didn't expect the last bubble either. They only happen when people lose their hope/faith in them. Thanks for doing your part  ;)

Nobody is accepting BTC, stop saying that shit. They're all using Coinbase to convert it to FIAT immediately. They don't give a fuck about Bitcoin or they'd hold it in BTC.

Its literally them going "well yea we'll take your money but only if we have a way to convert it to USD". There was no meeting where they went "oh man this shit is the future we need to get in on it!". If there wasn't a conversion service like Coinbase to do this there's no way Dell would be letting people pay with BTC.

Also where is my end of July ATH?

We are still on progress for market domination. Volume drying up at this level implies no seller.

No, but I hate that people are screaming about BTC acceptance when its not really the case. Like I said, Merchants don't seem to care about BTC (some do, most don't), they want their USD.

It will go to 5000 usd for every coin thinking of it as is still at right on time phase of air pocket

Exactly!  Everything is still priced in fiat. When its priced in BTC then you can say the merchants accept bitcoin

Even my airline price their catalog w miles instead of fiat.  However that doesn't mean I should speculate on my miles going to the MOOON!!!

Really? LOL better start back pedaling on that one bolded above.

Dell from a risk standpoint needs to do that at first. Pretty obvious any company that is starting to get its feet wet with Bitcoin will do it that way.

But you do not know the future, nor does anybody.

"Your end of July ATH"? lol...it is a speculation thread...get over it buddy.

I guess the world revolves around you.  ::)

How do you know that they don't have a deal with coinbase to keep a % of coins in BTC and convert the rest into fiat?

I know bitpay did this as a service at one point. Please stop talking like you know everything and there is no doubt in what you say. That is one thing I hate. ;D

One glaring thing people seem to miss is that companies like Dell who accept BTC for payment increase their profit margins because they cut a 2-4% fee for payment processing down to 1% with coinbase. One major incentive.

I don't think all the companies accepting bitcoin sell all their holdings, everyone who takes a look at
btc charts know that holding is the most safer way to gain more money with low risk.

The fun thing is that we all know that when that price starts moving
It moves 5 to 10 percent in a day for a while to scare the beejesus out of people :)

So yes I think we can make it, lot more support and growth over the year can never hurt compared to where we were when it was at $1000.

Is there any chance that this could still happen? Please guys, I need to make money on this investment.

I bot 500 dolars of bitcoin on circle.com with moms credit card. Super excited but hop she dont notise or im screved.

This post is so wrong that it is good

• Taking out a loan to buy Bitcoin
• Transaction is unauthorized, so will likely be charged back
• Teen girl persona?

I would not bet on it. The chance of hitting $5k by the end of the year is something like 0.0000001%, give or take a few zeros :D

Don't we all  8)

Holla!


**FACEPALM**


Excited you stole from your parents? Yea she'll notice. You know, people actually have to pay for credit cards. Her payment is going to increase next month, and if you knocked her over her credit limit she'll really notice. One day, when you grow up, you'll look back and wonder why you thought you were so much smarter than your parents.

lol. he's totally trolling you, bro.