Bitcoin Forum

I've used the RSI to see if we can expect a new bubble. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. Just before the last bubbles we had a rise of the RSI above 80 and directly after that we had a drop. After this drop comes the bubble.

I'm expecting a top of about $3800 to $4000 because of the symmetrical triangles. Price target of a symmetrical triangle: the widest distance of the symmetrical triangle can be measured and applied to the breakout point

http://i57.tinypic.com/5vvdbc.png

I sure hope so, OP. Meanwhile I will be telling everyone I know about bitcoin, and everyone reading this should too.

Great chart and extrapolation.

I really hope so. To the moon guys !

I've seen this 4k next bubble prediction from a couple of different sources. TTM

While I see something here, RSI alone is not nearly enough to indicate this. I am skeptical of all these predictions of another bubble right away.

Aside from the peak target (don't know if it's gonna be that high), i absolutely agree with you OP.

Bear market  -> Trend reversal -> pre-bubble crash -> new ATH and beyond.

It's probably gonna take a while though.

can someone explain what the chances are that we will see a new ath in mid/late july?
and also why we would not see a new ath :p

rsi alone, i doubt its enough :8

It is not only the RSI, it is also the symmetrical triangle. The triangle is used in forex trading and gives you an indication of continuation. Continuation means a new bubble in this graph. It also gives you a target of the new top. The top may be less or even more. It is only a target.

*fingers crossed*

No chart for me.  But I am praying that you are right!

I hope we see a new bubble soon. I bought most of my coins > $800. Would love to be in profit. :-\

Then why didn't you buy in at the dips to 450? If I may ask... I bought in all the way down, so my average is about 620.

Not everyone is a trading champ and I guess many folks bought in a one time chunk.

He may have used up all of his available funds.

What you suggest is a good strategy otherwise.

Only if it doesn't continue to go down ;)

I used to be scared when it dropped that it would just keep dropping. But that NEVER happens. HODL, y'all.

Good point!

Obviously you would have to be fairly certain of its long term hopes  ;D

Weren't you one of the bears suggesting to wait until the 200s to buy?

Still, lets give credit where credit is due: buying at over $800 and holding all this year is tough

Oh, snap! To the the > $800 bagholder.... I'm with ya. :'( :D

That's what they said for over a year for the folks that bought at $33

Me? nope. If anything, I'm a bull.

This sounds good to me hope it happens very very soon  :)

Definitely, must be so tempting to sell.

Would have been better to sell and then buy back, but let's not go down that road :D

No bubble yet, please. I need more cheap coins. :'(

It was inevitable. 5000 USD is definitely possible.

You should buy them soon if you want cheap coins. I don't think we will be able to get them for this price in the future. That's why i bought 2 extra bitcoins with my last savings.

Niiiiice. So you are all in?

I think that a lot of us are doing a little extra something to buy more coins these days before the expected rise.

Yes i'm all in. But i'm a student and don't have a lot of money. I started with 10 btc at 200 euros per bitcoin and made some profits with litecoin. I took my investment of 2000 euros out of it and took some profit. After that i still had 7 btc left and bought 2 now. So that makes my avarage price €90

It's not so tough.

I've been buying since $1,000 all the way down to $450. Not counting the quick deals I've made along the way, I'd have to sell or spend my current coins (the ones I HEDL) at an average of about $700 to break even. And I ain't even mad. Because the amount I spent to acquire the coins was a portion of my income that I'm comfortable not having.

It's going to be so worth it.

there's no duobt about that. and i thought it was tough holding my coins from $550 on the way down to $340!!

Too much great if it will happen, but I don't think ! 4000$ is too much, you say that market cap will increase of 60.000.000.000$ ! (more or less)

Ignoring online spending, what if Bitcoin became a 'safe haven' during the next economic crisis?

This doesn't mean that we need $60,000,000,000 to get there. If the orderbook has almost no sellers you can get to $4000 with a small ammount of money. Ofcourse we still need a lot, but way less than $60,000,000,000

This is one of the future scenarios that I find very likely. I don't subscribe to the whole doomsday "prepper" version but more a long slow spiraling grind down, and at the same time bitcoin will be getting bigger and stronger.

Some people would say: "but hey banana! PMs is where people go in hard financial times!", sure, it used to be, but I personally own PMs (We're talking physical) and have experienced what a PITA it is to both store and buy/sell. Just now I'm trying to sell some silver locally and it took me almost a week to find a buyer and that was at spot price! no premium! Jesus! what the .... !!! With bitcoin I could have done that INSTANTLY!

What makes me sceptical about this is the fact that everyone now expects 10 fold increase as it has turned to be a yearly pattern. I would be surprised if the next peak is ~4000$ and everyone called it more or less perfectly, cashing out during the rally from 3k to 4k.

Having said that, I recall a friend of mine who looked at the parabolic rise of Bitcoin a year ago and said as if he was an old and wise man "if history was to repeat itself, now would be the time to sell" and price has just passed 100$ per Bitcoin. Selling at 100 turned out to be quite a risky business because after the bubble burst, the price did not go much below 100 anyway. Anyone would have pulled their hair out looking the price climbing to 250$ after having cashed out at 100$ :D

Hence, I'd suggest the price goes 2x higher than expected during the next bubble and if it bursts (might not happen for the sake of irony) most people who sold in hope of catching the top will hardly break even when buying back in.

Aye. On r/bitcoinmarkets there are quite a few nominating July 24th as the peak at $5000 as if it's in the bag already. I think the world is a slightly more complex place but only time will tell.

More like wishful thinking.

It will go there eventually, though. Just be patient.

I don't think that many of the investors in bitcoin that bought between 700 and 1100 will sell once price is back up in those levels. they bought because they thought btc would go to da moon. when it did not they felt bad or desperate and those who got desperate enough sold with a loss. but those who survived will not sell since now they finally see a bull market, they hope this will proof their initial investment was not completly stupid but just kinda badly timed; they will see btc doing what they anticipated it would/should when they bought.
finally the horse they picked starts to gain traction and as a result they should abandon it ? Never ! those hodlers will be the strongest hands. they went through bloodshed with their stash, they will not sell anytime soon....

Let me add that even if people sell, many will try to hold at least one whole bitcoin because historical.

I plan on selling half when price reaches $4k.  Then hodl for the next runnup. 

I might as well just say I am planning to sell at 4k after it peaks at 10k and crashes, because that's what I do.

If things go on as before, then it probably takes some time with the Bubble.... ;)

eh, i'll choose to wait and see.. if we start to expect this to happen, how do you think we'll feel when it doesn't? at $4k per coin, i would have some financial freedom to make a change in my life.. i'm hoping for it, but i'm not going to expect it to come by the end of next month.

let us hope that as it comes and we should feel "free"  8)

Get your bitcoins while they are "cheap".

It makes sense that we at least plan for a bubble.  Nothing has happened yet that precludes the possibility, and it's about as obvious as anything could possibly be when using TA.  The strongest arguments against are basically that it's crazy to count on a that kind of gain.  How many times does it have to happen before it's not crazy?

The momentum of the bitcoin economy keeps growing. Price has stayed in a relative range for 6+ months. Once more adoption happens we will have another rally.

I do not think it is that far off (~2 months).

Original post brought to you by corporate bullshit generator & wild speculation.

I am 'much more' conservative.
The next high will be.......









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....

$3,457  :)

I could use the RSI to point out some really bearish things too. I'll make a thread on that later.

Stick to the moon cycles

I have pointed out the same last month

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg6941837#msg6941837

https://i.imgur.com/cYIzAhZ.png

You're such a giant Bitcoin bear that it makes me wonder why you're ever on these forums. It's one thing to be skeptical or to see/know that there will indeed be bad days for bitcoin (and any other potential investment or hobby out there), but I haven't ever noticed 1 hopeful or positive comment about bitcoin from you ever. Now I haven't gone through and looked at all your posting history, so there may be some in there somewhere, but I'd wager that they are few and far between.

With that being said, is bitcoin an investment to you? A hobby? An Interest? And if it is of any interest to you at all, why is it always in a negative light? Do you hate all of your hobbies?

I'm not raging on you or anything, just very curious as to your continued negativity and yet persistent activity in regards in bitcoin.

That will be great. When do you expect that bubble?

I'm not a bear. I just point out some TA which indicates that there is a chance that the next rally could possibly in a year from now rather than right now. However, in either case if you hold long term, you will profit massively. That is not bearish.

I think you have me mixed up with some other bears/trolls on here like Fonzie. My posts are not really that bearish and some of them are even bullish.  I mostly correct people who improperly use TA or emotionally assert things that are not absolutes. Extrapolating and recognizing simple patterns are not real forms of TA. Patterns occur all over the charts but often do not continue.  Yet people use this pseudo-TA all the time on here while ignoring real TA which points in the opposite direction.

If the pattern really repeats, it may happen in August, which I believe is possible as the FBI auction may ignite the next bubble

We'll see what happens. I get the feeling we're gonna see some pretty hefty resistance above at $800 and above, when we get there. We've been under those levels so long, with so many holders under water....

Hopefully you were able to lower your dollar cost average by picking up a few additional coins on the way down, or at least a few more when we sat at around $420 for what felt like an eternity. 

From a medium to long term perspective, I am still super confident that you will be profitable, it may just take a little patience.   I wouldn't sell at a loss if I were you.   

If you didn't pick up any more coins on the way down, you should still get some more now, when we are at a low point since it will bring your average way down (depending on how many coins you picked up at $800+)

Good advice. Unfortunately, most people end up selling at a loss or holding but too terrified to average down their cost. C'est la vie. More cheap coins for the rest of us....

I think Bitcoin is fascinating and has good potential long term. However, if you want the complete reasons why I am starting to feel somewhat bearish in the short term, the reasons lie entirely in this chart.  Don't focus too much on refuting any one thing because there are about 8 things.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/C5D6ZWQq/

Stick to your psychics and moon cycles please.

All it takes is one or two good days of big buys to get us to 650 and above once again.

Hope that we will se $1000+ again this year.

You were strongly bearish at $450, $425, $400...and you are bearish now.
When is the last time you were strongly Bullish?  (medium to short-term)

TERA? NEVER

This is typical TERA - every post is about how bitcoin will crash.  The she claims not to be a bear.  It is a never ending cycle  :D

Don't forget to dump once we will be on 800-900 like every panicking retard trying to profit even e few dolars, worried that we won't go higher.
We prob will just hold your coins tight.

Wow. It does look like a valid repeating patterns.

What could be the catalyst? Paypal acceptance? Silkroad coin sold out? ETF?

5k+ ;D

Does your butt hurt a lot from being in red since the last bubble?

You don't know shit about me. For me it's 1 or 0. I'll fucking go down with this ship.

I feel the FBI auction will bring good attention to Bitcoin if these coins are sold bit over market value. If sold under market value, I do not expect price increase anytime soon

See below...

TERA turned from bear to troll now.

she should go to btc-e troll box and leave this forum  ;D

I saw a similar chart in a different thread somewhere. The conclusion was same. I don't have many Bitcoins, only a few. But I believe in HODL and your prediction help me with it! :)

LOL I was thinking today actually that the only difference between TERA and fonzie is that TERA posts charts.

This forum is full of idiots. I post about how in the worst case scenario, we're still up in a year from now before a super exponential rise, and that long term holding is a good strategy. Then I'm called bearish. BEARISH! I post charts that literally have two paths both of which end up on the moon, but that's not good enough. Anything that is not going to the moon right now is bearish. Who cares about gaining a base of support. Everything has to now, fast, right now, or it's bearish. Chop chop! Like a bunch of drug addicts that need their fix.

Well, for fairness sake, nobody likes being told that his 'get rich quick and without any effort' scheme isn't going to work out quite as smoothly as originally imagined.

Bitcoin needs to be scrutinized and look upon with critical eyes, only through valid criticism can it be improved. The get-rich-quick-from-magical-internet-money-crowd is large on this site, it is only good to have some counter weight, and IMHO there ought to be more.

If paypal start using bitcoin we'd shoot beyond that target and perhaps see the s curve max out as explained here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHUPPYzzZrI

Oh I like this guy. Look guys this is the new bull, and you are all bears.  The 1000% per year trend that everyone believes in isn't even good enough for him. Bitcoin is going to exceed that and start increasing 5000% per year. Now anyone that still believes in ONLY a 1000% gain per year is a BEAR.

I like it when you get angry, you BEAR.....
 ;)

The thing is you claim to be bull, just not making ridiculously optimistic projections. But instead you always think bitcoin is going to crash.  This is not a case of you being less bullish than everyone else - it is more than that: you are a bear  ;D

Actually we should start calling you TROLL....

welcome to that club, together with Fonzie and those bunch of poor guys who think they're smart.

Most of these statements are false.

People take this way too seriously. RSI can't predict the human factor.

https://i.imgur.com/iFowUfp.png?1

And when you deal with bitcoin it's a true bullshit.

TERA we spot you. Go create another account, this one is broken baby.

Actually I keep coming up with the solution to simply stop posting here,  since I spend all this time doing all this free TA and analysis only to be ridiculed and trolled. I've left a few times now. However, I can't seem to stick with it for more than a week. What usually ends up happening is come here just with the intent of reading whatever news is going on during a big movement and then some thread compels me to respond to it and I get caught up with this again.

They are just trolling you. The views and opinions here needs to be balanced.

Thumbs up for Tera! I regard myself as a bull, but it's just sane to see the "risk" that Bitcoin goes to 5,000 only next year.

Forum members can be divided up to the following:

- People, who have a faint idea what they are doing: Tera, rpietila, Adam, and the like
- Obvious trolls (like fonzie)
- cheering idiots who don't accept anything but Bitcoin to da moon tomorrow at the latest
- plain idiots (like me)

Maybe. Or maybe TERA is a troll.

A $3800 bubble is way too huge. I'll eat a shoe on stream if this happens.

Quoted for reference. Going to pick the worst smelling shoe for you now :)

wait wasnt there already some guy who ate his hat because of bitcoin speculation? you realy want to be that guy? :)

I'm ready to do this. With Bitcoins costing $3800 per coin, I'm sure I'll be rich enough to spend a few hundred dollars to get my stomach pumped after what happens. But perhaps we need to set a deadline for this to happen.

Okay, then choose a deadline. I got nothing to lose here, so you set the terms. I will even pay for some ketchup to accompany the shoe. And maybe we resort to not using a knee-long gothic plateau shoe because we don't want to kill you ;)

Haha, I'll have to find some shoe that is organic and won't kill me. I'll set the deadline by August 17th 2014.

Great, let's create a bet in http://bitbet.us/ (or a similar website) to seal the deal. You guys can't keep the fun just for yourselves.

Hey, I'm not going to bet money on this. I'm just going to bet whether or not am I going to eat a shoe!

And we'll bet on wheather you'll eat it or not. :P

Any of you TA specialists competent enough to pull some TA magic using Markov Chains? I think what bores people is the obvious TA and drawing straight lines on charts, let it either be bullish or bearish. Moon cycles is actually a pretty interesting concept, so I'd suggest using female menstrual cycles next. I have heard they synchronize for a group of women living in the same area.

Having some bears in the equation is a good sign for me. I expect the next rally this Summer because it would match perfectly with my personal situation at this moment in life. I also expect a black swan event just for the irony of it, something like a massive surge in price but no major correction (crash). Everyone is so tied up with the idea of the price crashing immediately after a parabolic rise that such an event would teach them a good lesson -- something life is good at.

Finally some predictions based on sense and logic. I'd be very surprised if it played out in any different way..

Yeah, i've always been thinking that one day, the bubble won't pop. It's just going to be more and more adoption, and people selling will deeply regret.
This may never happen, but i feel it is closer than we think, wall-street might bring this.

I have a corollary event to this but I would be called a permabear.

Please post, the perma-realist's always have open ears and minds to your comments

Corollary to a rally that never retraces would be a crash that never bounces or recovers. I'm not predicting that this will happen but it is probably equally as likely as the former. It would teach everyone a 'good lesson' about risk management like I learned the hard way in penny stocks.

True. If the price reaches the vertical rise stage of the S-curve, it can very well grow into a bubble, reaching its global ATH that it is never going to be touched again after the bubble has burst. However, it should be easy to recognize the vertical rise stage and assume that it is a one time event in the history of Bitcoin. Knowing that, everyone should be prepared for the upcoming giant bubble. The vertical rise stage probably dwarfs all the previous rallies. So, instead of a single order of magnitude growth we will see several of these occurring within the same rally.

I've been aware of that since I started dabbling in bitcoin. It's a risk I've accepted, it is a scenario that can happen. ATM, I don't find this scenario very likely though, as I see growing adoption and acceptation of btc. Right I see little reason for such a crash to happen, and more reasons for the opposite to happen.

I hope this S-curve is a real thing and not only a theory... 

It will most definitely apply to cryptocurrency and very likely to Bitcoin.

The latest projections from Hyena have greatly outclassed even BitcoinNutJob's earlier projections. Now Hyena is the bull and BitcoinNutJob is the bear, and of course everyone else is a permabear.

Another thread for Tera to buzzkill! Keep em coming boys he has all day...

it is  scientific
applied and proved on bacteria growth.population growth ect.

But I thought bitcoin was not simply a vehicle for increasing our fiat holdings rather a new global asset where our savings can safely be stored in a decentralised liquid medium of exchange that theoretically should still increase in value against fiat/production over time even with full adoption, similar to how gold did in the past centuries. 

I guess I was wrong, I will now consider hodling until I can guess when the S-curve plays out and then sell

It is written in stone, there is no other possibility. Bitcoin will DEFINITELY be worth 1000000000$ The question is only q3 2014 or q4 2014, THAT is the big question!

Oh fonzie, you permabear. It's q2 2014 of course.

... >.> ...... <.<...

Permabull?

im reading your posts and im grateful of your input. if that counts any. dont trouble yourself with people who doesnt understand if you have some people that do and listens, then its more important to focus on them and forget the rest.

Why when he can buy 200BTC for the same price? Retard.

Not clever or funny or a good point or anything useful at all.  Read more, post less. 

We are now in a pennent. This wil probably break out to the top. Next point of resistance wil be 650 to 660.
Pennants are short-term continuation patterns that mark a small consolidation before the previous move resumes. The sharp move up of the flagpole usually occurs on heavy volume. Target of a pennant: The length of the flagpole can be applied to the resistance break or support break of the flag/pennant to estimate the advance or decline.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/gJyXqkx7/

Could you explain what the 8 things are, instead of just saying "there are about 8 things"? I can see a couple, but surely you could elaborate.

Please explain.
Even though I think you're kind of negative (nearly all the time),
I do appreciate the substance of many of your posts and don't consider you a troll

Good call.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/FrBDVR6H/

Bear in mind that that I attached no particular prediction to this. It's just (some bearish indicators observed) but the bulls still have a chance and if the bulls can get the price back over the cloud then there won't be any bearish action at all.

Only one 'signal' is truly important right now and that is amazingly strong Bitcoin fundamentals.  :)

TA reveals what is not visible to the eye. You only think the fundamentals are amazing but in reality there could be some sinister counter-fundamentals lurking in the background that are being concealed from public view.

Guys, why don't just somebody with too much free time go through Tera's old predictions so we can settle this? Mostly better predictions than reality = bull, mostly worse = bear. If it's the latter like some people think, we still have that Fonzie guy to cancel her out. Or maybe she's even one of those rare people that have a faint idea what they're doing like some suggested and is mostly right.

Most of my charts are not even 'predictions'.  They say something like 'either X OR Y could happen", or "if A happens, then X will happen, and if B happens then Y will happen". One of the options is a bull option and one is a bear option (almost always short term in nature).  People become very upset that I would state that there is even a chance that the price could go down at some point and that it isn't 100% absolutely certain to be moonbound in the immediate future. So I am called bearish,  but I like to think of it is as simply being realist, or just providing objective neutral TA.

Again you are not seeing the full extent of your negativity.  All of your charts are based on bitcoin going no where or falling.  I do not mean this in a bad way, but no one is going to care about your charts until you become more open minded.  It feels as if all of your charts are hugely biased by your bearish tendency and renders them useless

open minded = 10000$ by the end of July and not a single fucking penny less, am i right?

No almost none of them say 'bitcoin is falling' and almost all of them say 'there is chance we either go up or down', and are refutations of people who say that there is a 100% chance of reaching X by the next year, month, business day, etc. You only think they are 'negative' or 'bearish' because they are against your 110% bullish bias.

If the price was $600 and I said it was going to $900 but you guys were saying it was going to $1,000,   I would be called bearish. Good lord.

lets just put this here again




[/quote]

I wish TERA would make another illustrated prediction so we can add it to our collections of Goofy Forecasts ;D

Are you guys delusional as fuck?



No one knows if a bubble is coming this year. There is already a significant divergence from the pattern. And that is really no surprise because everyone and their mom's have been jinxing the hell out of this 234 day bubble cycle instead of just letting it happen naturally... making it seem like it's 100% guaranteed and ultimately scaring the bubble away. The only pattern that exisits is that bitcoin skyrockets when no one is looking, the more enthusiastic you gigolos are the more likely it is that nothing happens, so stfu.


With that said, I still have some hope that there may be a bubble, but it will be late. There is a chance that the upcoming Gov auction of the 30K silk road BTC may be the trigger that we have been waiting for. I don't think there will be many of your average-rich investors at this auction, it will more likely be your mega-rich investors to institution/organizations bidding for these coins, probably for all 30K, because this may be the perfect opportunity for them to get into bitcoin. No one will be able to buy 30,000 btc at current market price off an exchange. They will end up driving the price up to a new level before they get all of their coins. So someone winning the bid at lower than market price is out of the question imo. Even those betting at current market price should be out-bid by those willing to pay a premium because they understand the effect of buying 30K coins at bulk. This is a private auction so no one will know what the other bids are, so I really don't see a low ball bid winning the auction.

And if/when this happens it will affect the market in a good way. For one bitcoin will receive positive attention... not only does the Gov selling bitcoin make this currency more legitimate, people will see the Gov and investor X or organization Y valuing bitcoin well above market price.

This is the only event in the near future that MAY cause somewhat of a bullish rally... fuck your lines and charts as if bitcoin is supposed to match up perfectly with some pre-determined delusional pattern

How do you scare a bubble away?  Meme time? lol  ;D ;D ;D

You sound pretty butthurt...

Dafar? More like JAFAR!!

GTFO non-believer

I am superstitious and I believe your collective hype and bigotry ruined the bubble for everyone. Bitcoin is watching you and it does not like being predictable. When has bitcoin ever been predictable? All the sudden everyone thinks they have figured it out w/ the bubble cycle... like there is free money just waiting for everyone/ lol



How am I a non-believer? I'm just not delusional

Pretty sure I have more btc than you little padawan

nobody believes you, non believer

Death to the infidel !!!!

I order a JihAD on your arse

Lol.  Two conflicting statements, both intended to piss off holders.  Troll.

Do you have trouble w/ reading comprehension or are you just stupid?

"Scare the bubble away" is LOL funny, and I don't actually laugh out loud often enough.  :)
The next BTC bubble will be bigger than this one!

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-WGkVrtQdcvI/ThG3HBYedqI/AAAAAAAAGJI/lCC6r64xBaI/s1600/bubble2.jpg

no dude it's just you you're stupid

If the auction goes for a premium the price will be published.  This will put a floor under the price similar to when India bought gold for around 1100USD per ounce a few years ago.

GUYS

First rule of bitcoin bubble club!

Tell everyone about the Bitcoin Bubble Club?  :D

Didn't Tera turn bull a few weeks ago though?

Aside from the usual trolls pretty much everyone is bullish right now.

In terms of short term trading (the next 6 months) I was bullish for the past 6 weeks, until 550 was breached. Now I am neutral and think there is an equal chance of rallying and of beginning a C wave down and the next 2 weeks of consolidation will be critical.

Long term I have always been bullish and remain bullish.

[/quote]
I notice one thing in common with all of these charts:  they end up with the price on the moon....

If that natural bubble happens, looking in hindsight, doesn't it all sound so perfect, like it was meant to be, almost biblical, isn't it?? :-)

Think about it, the Silk Road issue created an auction that MIGHT actually just help push the price a bit and get the attention that it had previously lost with the China ban crap storyline. It's like Bitcoin is finally getting vindicated.

As a technologist and small investor, I've been analyzing Bitcoin for over a year every single day like no other technology ever caught my attention. I went thru the entire Internet and networking cycles since the first days and I don't remember being as cautiously excited as I am now for bitcoin.

My analysis indicates that the #1 threat for bitcoin are the *offline* blockchains, think of private/corporate blockchains that some companies or prospects of companies seem to want to employ for privacy or proprietary purposes. This would cause a fragmentation of the main bitcoin network.

Risk #2 is potentially long technology cycles where the cost to run nodes (not even mining) might offset the benefit of running nodes and   cause a decline in their number. In addition, a lower monetary incentive to mine by small users would diminish the number of nodes and overall power of the network. This would cause risk #3: potential centralization/ 51% attacks.

There are still many factors playing out so it's difficult to assess the true systemic risk that couldn't be reduced anymore.

My new prediction

http://i57.tinypic.com/6599xs.png

I think you're confused. You draw something that you think is going to happen, and it didn't happen. Countless. Times.

They may have beenwrong but none of them were bearish. They all showed the price eventually going into a double exponential rally within one year at the latest.

I notice one thing in common with all of these charts:  they end up with the price on the moon....
[/quote]


maybe if you consider the previous ATH the moon. none of them go above ATH

My apologies. I stop drawing charts once it reaches ATH because I thought it was implied and obvious that a rally would start then. I never meant that the price would actually just stop at ATH, lol. Hmm maybe THIS is why people think I'm bearish?

exactly. that is exactly why imo.

Friendly advice:
I think you are just posting too much. Start your own thread, like other frequent posters did, and curate it to your liking.

It's a simple fact, that >90% of everyone posting predictions here gets it wrong. Those who post more often, get it wrong more often.

Friendly advice:

I think your post belongs to those 90% wrong ones as well.

Smite the heretic!

End of June. I was always saying same. It will happen now.

The market will find a very unpredictable way to launch the very same rally that so many people are expecting.

Jesus you keep that bullish enthusiasm well hidden.

Or aybe it won't. Since it's unpredictable you can't even say if it will.

Hahaha Tera don't you think it is a strong indicator that everyone except you thinks you are too negative?

9pages of posts in 3days! We are all thinking about that price of a few thousands and it feels like we are getting closer, maybe it's due for 2014 Q4

It's an indicator that everyone is short sighted.

i tend to think this way as well. it's sensible to be bullish long term, but there are cycles within cycles, and retracements to be made. it's not all up, up, UP and bubbles nonstop. i think the bubble will happen when the bulls start losing faith, after we break some long term supports and rebound. fakeout stylee.

Friendly advice: when advising, don't forget to include actual advice.  ;D

Wow this thread is crazy, how did I miss it during my daily crawl..

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we have a few bitcoin price predictions already but you can start your own, more the merrier!

Cheers,

So you are right and everyone else is wrong?  ::)

Why not? Last year, when price was at 800 range everybody was laughing at rpetilla who said that he is leaving the forum until price drops to 500. The price have dropped. He was right and everybody else wrong.

After the gox drop to 400 even repietlia claimed it was never going below 500something again, and I was the one who corrected him and said it was going to 300s, and ended up being right.

Prove it.

Are we seriously discussing whether r "uberbull" pietila has been, consistently, way overconfident in his price estimations?

So please don't be a lazy ass, blatchcorn... If you're seriously in doubt about that, go to his post history. Examples of "that's rock bottom, we'll never go this low again" will be easily found. He also stated during the February drop that this was the end of the correction (when we had another 2 months left). And let's not even talk about the 2013 era when he claimed there's no way we wouldn't hit $100k by the end of the year.

He was right about going into the 400s, but even that was too optimistic as we hit the 300s after all, and he was far from being the only one in here who predicted lower prices. That said, I do give him credit though for saying the above, considering that this was a "bearish" target coming from one of the most bullish posters in here, so it added some weight.

Ya I was assembling a response to blatchcorn with posts between me and repietelia and then realized it would set a bad precent and I'd always be doing all this work to prove myself to people and wasting my time, so I wont. Although I cant help but point out this chart. I predicted the exact bottom, on the exact date, though apparently I was a little too bullish about what would happen after that

The thing with TERA is she posts hundreds of charts, so one of them is bound to be right.

Exactly. 

Women are always right, right?

Remember that even a broken clock is right twice a day  ;)

Bitcoin always seems to skyrocket after a bubble, so I wouldn't be surprised if we started to see another one soon.

The recent sell-off seems to be over, and the uptrend should continue.
How soon?
I think we should be near $700 before the end of this month.

the devil is in the details. i think TERA has been pretty consistent actually. there is no predicting any particular path -- only looking at the possibilities and assigning statistical probability.

He has been in optimistic phase over the last year. Before that it was the opposite and he used to be all pessimistic.

You've got it all wrong about me.. Not worth addressing it point by point.

This seems like a viable way to measure relative growth in the index.
Btcoin is not really an index the price may follow a similar pattern so it makes for good speculation.

I hope the price goes up to in relation to the news of the sale from the FBI and the market reads that sentiment positively.

Would be amazed to see bitcoin reach heights as high as 3800-4000.  A bit skeptical that they will get that high but agree something big a brewin.

I'm convinced that we will see those levels, and probably much, much higher as well. But I am not convinced at all that we are entering another bubble in the very near future.

You all know what they say about everyone expecting the same thing, right?

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Here ya go!  Let's put some skin in this game!

So we are on down trend again. When will this end?

actually i see this as a low estimate.

$5000~$6000 seems more likely to me, but the safest bet would probably be $4000 to $5000

of course you could sell (partly) at or before $4000, but you would kick yourself in the nuts if you'd see the price would shoot all the way to to $6000 after that.

Or even (less likely) do a double growth spurt like in 2012.


By July most likely. It can't continue much longer than that.

It is good to admit you are wrong when it is obvious.

Yes making a ton of charts eventually you will have one that is right.

I still say we have a new ATH by the end of July 2014.

But I could be wrong...just...my view.

What happens if we break long term support?

Bubble launch? ???

Then there will be no more traders entering just to time and front run a rally and we will see where bitcoin's true believers actually buy.

Let´s just hope that we stay above 100$ for the rest of the year.

How much u want to bet on this troll? I'll give you 3 to 1. My 45k to your 15k.

Now put your money where your mouth or shut up.

This thread is so full of trolls it's beyond ridiculous. Anyone who actually have valid predictions has already placed their bets over at betmoose (https://www.betmoose.com)

Yeah.  Everything it is looking like there will be a July rally.  This sell-off is the perfect bear trap - and you can see that is happening by the bears' doom and gloom posts. 

What everything?? Because I can only see price slowly declining or sitting at the same level for weeks. Care to explain?

We are going through the right progression:
Take-off and first sell off has happened.  We are now in a bear trap.  Next stage will be media attention when winkdex goes live and pay pal announces bitcoin integration.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4b/Stages_of_a_bubble.png

This picture :P

But it's true, and I hope it will rise as i'll be able to make a quick buck of it :D

+1
I missed the picture! When nobody posts it for several days in a row, I'm getting worried  ;D

no "bubble" will happen this summer. starting in september there will be a rise to 800/900 territory. new ath later this year.

My crystal ball tells me the rise to 800/900ish will already take place in late August. So many crystal balls out there.

That's weird, my Poulp says it's going to happen in september.
Must not be accurate, let's try frogs or cats.

I heard there is one camel in UAE that predicts football match results.
Probably we can fondle his testicles and get him to predict the next 'bitcoin bubble'?

Still waiting for the bubble..

The surprise (when it finally happens) sets us up for a much bigger rally.  :)

dont know why everyone is calling upswings "a bubble"..
bitcoin prooved many times that it is not a bubble, sure it has its ups and downs, but that is purely caused by speculations and market stabilization.

If we could only predict the future, we wouldn't need to worry about this, because I don't know about you, I would have been a millionaire years ago and wouldn't need to worry about money.

Bottom line is absolutely no one knows, and in the long run, Stocks/Guessing on the price of bit coin is no different than gambling.

Let me summaries is to you guy. We all KNOW but have our doubts.

2-4 Months (BOOM down).
6-?(until next crash)   (BOOM BOOM BOOoOoooOooOm UP!).

Buy now buy later wouldn't matter, Hodl till end of 2014 - mid 2015

Maybe but at the end nobody can predict how the next bubble will perform.. the only safe way is to hodl without triying to short in deeps.

It may actually rally to this high after silkroad coin is settled and put back in circulation.

Bitcoin price is a speculative market with huge volatility when we have big news; supply and demand command the price; Silkroad coins are not a deal breaker for the price going to thousands of Dollars as soon as Bitcoin starts to get bigger and the market understands that the USD will go down in value tremendously