Bitcoin Forum

is it really worth the try. i'm curious about it and want to try it on freebitco.in. I also found a script online.

Will work if you have an infinite supply of wealth. :)

If that truly worked, all the casinos in the world would be out of business ;)

One of the reasons it doesn't, is the house's edge.

You have a point there, thanks btw.  :)

The true weakness of a martingale strategy is not the house edge (which refers to statistical probability in favor of the casino), but the max bet amount and/or funds available. Even with the house edge, a person could double their bet every interval and eventually win one unit. However, there will be a time when you will hit either the betting limit or your own limit in funds available.

Martingale looks like it works... at first. Then you hit the above scenario and can lose it all. Try the martingale system on a site with practice tokens and you'll see.

Thanks for this. i'll try this system but will not push to the limit.  :) 

freebitco.in do have very high house edge, even without house edge and you have a very very large bankroll, you will bankrupt in the long run unless you have unlimited bankroll.

Before trying that, you may check this long thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=610339.0;all :)

As i allready explained somewhere , martingale is not a good system enough, since you have to have like 100 BTC to be able to make 0.001 per day with a really fast script to be on the safe side.

There are a lot of people that can confirm that 34 streaks (non winning numbers) happened , now to transform that in numbers:

1-0.00000001
2-0.00000002
3-0.00000004
4-0.00000008
5-0.00000016
6-0.00000032
7-0.00000064
8-0.00000128
9-0.00000256
10-0.00000512
11-0.00001024
12-0.00002048
13-0.00004096
14-0.00008192
15-0.00016384
16-0.00032768
17-0.00065536
18-0.00131072
19-0.00262144
20-0.00524288
21-0.01048576
22-0.02097152
23-0.04194304
24-0.08388608
25-0.16777216
26-0.33554432
27-0.67108864
28-1.34217728
29-2.68435456
30-5.36870912
31-10.73741824
32-21.47483648
33-42.94967296
34-85.89934592

Sum till this bet is 171.79869183 BTC, Are you still sure you want to do martingale?

I tried it on Freebitco to see how they would counter it. They allow it for a few rounds, and then you get the longest loosing streak ever, until your coins are depleted.

Not worth it, they have a system to counter it. Which is a good thing. They would not have survived without it.

If you have coins to dump on them, try it yourself.  ;D

Martingale works until it doesn't. The fact is, it is only foolproof if you have an endless bankroll. If you use proper bankroll management, you can ride a luck streak, take profit out, and start again, and may be successful. But ALWAYS take profit when you are ahead. Eventually, you will lose everything, guaranteed.

There is nothing for free, worth to remember that.

No, it's a sure loss. There is no betting system that will make you win 100%. You are better off farming btc from freebitco.in then trying to bet and losing it all.

Well, sure. Time is money and all that. But there are still giveaways in bitcoin and altcoins. They don't pay like they did a couple years ago, but they are there. ;)

variants of martingale will work. if you are willing to lose money to make money. as someone mentioned, martingale ALWAYS fails eventually, but if you have a good system for taking profit on runs, you can beat it. there are better ways to make money, though, imo.

Risking 171BTC to make a satoshi is putting martingale into perspective

I want to answer to OP : try it for free, you will see that you will win sometimes and lose sometimes ;) No betting strategy beats an house edge

martingale can beat it. the only catch is, you need enough money that you will literally, never ever run out. with bitcoin's finite supply, this is actually impossible. ;)

I had tried martingale on freebitco.in and made a good profit to almost 100k satoshi in a day. The next day i played again and guess what, i ended up with zero balance.

Now i m giving up and quit.

You will always loose if you use martingale on long term. At some point you will finish your limited budget!

dont try martingale for long term i'v try a couple time on many site if you use for longterm you loss everything because system can read your trick
so if you want try it on short term i hope you have luck with this method

I lost about 270k, they have fixed game, like every other casino, they wont let you leave them bankrupt.

There's a reason why they included the gambling part in their faucet and ads.

I really suggest everyone not to do martingale since it's not working, but if you do it, than try using empty prerolls. Make X number of bets with 0 bet ammount and than start your martingale normaly.

That won't change your odds such as your betting pattern won't change your strategy it will change your variance and your perception on your losses/winnings

Also, none of the bets influence each other. It is impossible for a sure win after a 19 lose streak, for example.

I dont belive in this.

tried this, worked on non scam play money casinos (not real money)
in reality this will not work

You don't believe there is a simple system available to anyone that allows you to become extremely rich in a matter of days without any efforts? ;D ;D

always same its just about luck
because you will win in first session but you can lose all in next session, if you want try your luck go ahead, but for me it's too enough for playing gamble for earn bitcoin

It's not a system. It's a strategy. For every 10+ wins in a row there's an equal chance of losing 10x.
Say you're betting 1000 doge. If you need to overcome 10 losses it'll cost over 500,000 ...

There is no gambling strategy that gives you better odds of beating the house

I don't understand your explanation anyway

Yep, if you're using some betting system, just stop when you're in profit or you will lose all.

Martingale works if you've got a lot of money and know to quit when ahead. If you bet 1 satoshi each time and have 1btc in the bank you can keep going until you get a decent win. Obviously just dont keep going or you'll loose at some point  :D.

You serious ?
If it was guaranteed we would all be millionaires...

You may win.. say $10k... then go again.. win another $10k... then go again and lose it all...

Do not do it...  its silly.. unless you have unlimited bank roll, which I am guessing you don't.

If you just want to have a bit of fun give it a go, but if you win. stop.... i repeat.. stop!

The fun about Martingale is to think it works so we are ruining the fun of many players, I almost feel bad :P

And don't stop when you won a lot; do one more bet to double up ;D

Not fully equal, there's something called variance, if you lose the first one, it doesn't mean you can have a 50% chance of winning the next one, you have in fact, less chance since you have to consider about the percentage of the house edge, which can be from 1% to 2%.

Yes it is fun to let them think it works if you or I run a Casino.
I do not.. lol.. assuming you do not either yeah ?

In reality the results is you either win a few bet units or lose whole your bankroll. You won't have fun. Just play a normal strategy.

i'm not too sure about freebitco.in, i have not checked it out. but as others have mentioned, martingale will always fail....

Variance doesn't mean casino edge

It may work for a short while, but when you lose, you lose big.  It's worth a shot for faucets and 'free' BTC, but certainly not to actually try to make some coins.

It's great for freerolls, like on PrimeDice. You can actually have a shot at running it up, withdrawing some profit, and letting the rest run. But it's a bit risky to do with your own money, IMO.

As it is pure probability, it can work, but there is no guarantee.
However the chance is probably higher than winning the lottery  :)

the problem is with martingale you can lose more fast than lottery, even if you have bad luck you can lose only in 5 min

You can get another runs of lose streak or you can have some win and loses. No bets affect each other, even if you have alot of lose, it cannot be guaranteed your next one will be a win. There is a equal chance of either a win or lose.

I didn't know what Martingale was until I read about it and realized I was actually doing the exact same thing on Freebitco.in when I wanted to turn my balance into a nice round number just before withdrawing - e.g. having a balance of 29,980 satoshis and betting 20 satoshis to reach 30,000 satoshis. If I lose the bet, I would bet 40 satoshis, and so on until I won it all back plus the 20 satoshis. It worked well for me so far but I would definitely stop if I lost a large enough amount (fortunately that hasn't happened yet).

Martingale works semi-reliably if you have a very large balance and only bet very small amounts. But anything more than that and people tend to underestimate the frequency of losing streaks. The more bets you place in order to bring yourself to a reasonable profit, the more you're exposing yourself to encountering such a losing streak, and when that happens, you can easily blow away your entire balance - thus negating the strategy overall.

EDIT: Some rewording.

If you have a string of bad "luck" then you could quickly either hit the max bet or your bankroll would run out. This is the flaw of this type of gambling system.

The bets are independent, so the chance of future bets will stay the same.

Yup:


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy)

As long as the house has an edge there is no "system" to beat them - just algorithms to control your losses  :D

Martin gale will work on small ammounts on a big balance. Just quit whilst you're ahead and don't get greedy.

That's right. You can change the odds around, but the edge remains precisely the same. If the house edge is 1% and your total bet is X, your expected profit is -X/100.

You can make it much more likely that you'll win than that you'll lose, and thus much more likely that the house will lose than that they'll win. But when you do lose, it will be *huge*.

So, you can turn this: 51% of the time you lose $1, 49% of the time you make $1.
Into this: 99.9% of the time you make $1, 0.1% of the time you lose just over $1,000.

Bitcoin betting systems see lots of people using Martingale. As a result, they have long stretches in which they lose money. Operators have become concerned that there was an exploit or defect in their system. But then you have the good day that makes up for all the losses.

If the very first bet fails, and you keep doubling down as per the system you could very well lose your betting cap and not have made a single satoshi.

If you're going to gamble, just place the damn bets independently and enjoy it responsibly.  Don't try to out-hink a system which is stacked against you.

Not really, you can also bust on the first few rounds, even if you have a big balance, the risk is actually higher here.

That makes it a reverse lottery. That increases your probability of winning, but also increases the ratio of how much you win to how much you lose. It's like a reverse lottery where you get $1, but you have a one in a million chance of losing your house, wife, car, kids, job, and dignity.

martingale system is like playing with electricity.  don't do it, lol.

True for the dice system, at least in my experience.
You could get up to 80% profit using a good algorithm and a little luck, but more than 100% will quickly fail

For martingale to work two things need to be true:

1) The gambler needs infinite amount of wealth/bankroll
2) The casino/house needs infinite amount of price money

If either of these statements is false, martingale will not be profitable in the long run.

Justdice only has a 1% house edge though, (and recently luck has been 100.05%) so your profitability could be 99% which is much better than most other casinos.

However don't gamble to become rich, as gamlbing will only make you poor. Gamble for fun if you like.

This gambling system works so that you must take ever escalating risks to potentially receive a small reward that does not increase with your increased risk.

You can certainly run up small amounts, though. I wouldn't risk much. But I've made good gains on Martingale, taking profit early always. Sure, my luck could turn though, but at this point, I only bet with pure profit.

Just mak sur eyou martingale at the dice sites I am invested in.  ;D

It isn't worth is to use 1BTC to get 1 satoshi. If you actually want to use it to make a decent profit, example, 0.01, you can bust within the first few rounds, variance occurs so you might get a very bad streak immediately.

Martingale is good for free money, but I wouldn't risk anything. Risking too much for too little gain.

It actually isn't that good for free money, you can bust within a short amount of time, before you get any profit and if you do get a little profit, it isn't actually a lot unless you do it in the long run which is risky. You can get greedy and lose it all.

Depending on where you start with your betting then you could very well do essentially this. Your maximum reward will be the amount of your original bet, however you need to double your bet every time time you lose your bet.

Exactly. Whenever I tell people how much I'm up from dice games, they seem to think that it's impossible that I did that without using some kind of "system". All I did was bet what I was comfortable with at whatever odds I felt like playing at.

Want to know the secret about gambling? Variance is important, as it is the only way you can win against the house edge. The easiest way to have high variance is to only play a few times and then stop completely.

But you won't just win 1 satoshi. You could start betting 1 satoshi each time but if you've got a 1btc balance eventually you'll have a big loosing streak and eventually win where you make a little profit. Rinse and repeat.

2^23 and that 1BTC is gone.  It most likely won't happen on the first bet, but it very well could.  The fact you fail to understand odds is saddening.  Whatever the final exit limit is can be calculated at 2^(X-1) - X is the number of times you can fail before loosing everything.

This is the reason casinos have table limits to keep absurdity out.

What does 2^23 mean? 23 loses and you're cleaned out?

23 sequential losses in a row and you're cleaned out.

First loss lose 1, double it to 2
Second loss lose 2, double it to 4 (you lost 3 total)
Third loss lose 4, double it to 8 (you lost 7 total).

You keep going until you reach your max hoping you'll win and "rinse and repeat" as noted above.  It works if you only want to bet a few times and have lots to risk, but as noted before you're doing a reverse lottery - risking a lot for a little gain which many would say is stupid.

If you're going to gamble, just gamble and enjoy. Don't think you can beat math.

at 23 losses you'd lose 2^23-1 your initial bet

2^23= 8.388.608 by the way

so, if you would bet 1 satoshi and lose 23 bets in a row, you'd be betting 0.08388608 just to win 1 satoshi. (with 49.5/50.5 chance to win/lose)

if you have a bankroll of 1 bitcoin you could fail a maximum of 25 times before you go bankrupt, assuming your initial bet is a single satoshi.

first bet = 1 satoshi
second bet = 2 satoshi
third bet = 4 satoshi
4th = 8
5th = 16
6th = 32
7th = 64
.....
10th = 512
......
20th = 524288 satoshi
25th = 33554432 satoshi

total = 67108863 satoshi (0.67108863 bitcoin)

I know the odds and I didn't say it was foolproof. You're unlikely to hit 23 loses for a while and obviously you take the gamble that this wont happen on your first rounds. Get greedy and gamble all day and you'll most certainly lose out.

Yeah thought that's what it meant. Thanks.

People seem to think they're not going to lose 10+ bets in a row but the longer you play the more likely this is to happen. Martingale most certainly isn't a magic money making scheme and most people learn that the hard way.

I've also tried in on long term using a script and after a while i start losing, what do you think on how much time before the system knows if i am using this system? 

Are you the type who can risk 1BTC for 1 satoshi? Maximum you can get is 0.001 which have a huge risk of busting before that. Once, I used 0.01BTC to win 0.07BTC. And you know what happened almost immediately after I started my 9th round with 0.02? Bust within minutes, with the same odds, same amount of starting bet and increased bankroll. It can bust within a few minutes after you start the game, imagine how long it takes to earn 0.001

Gambling sites predetermined bets and show you the encrypted hash. They cannot change the result when you roll. If you want to have more security, use a unique client seed. The fact that you lose in the long run is because variance occurs and long losing streaks are almost guaranteed to happen.

Well couldn't you say that about all gambling? Are you willing to risk 1btc for 1 btc, 0.10 for 0.30 etc. People try use the Martingale and start off with small amounts because they think it's less of a risk, and in the short term it usually is, but it's knowing when to quit/cash out.

But for most small amounts, it usually cannot make a decent profit, subtracting the fees. Most people usually want at least 1% of profit before quitting , this can take some time.

Yes, but that's not the point as the small amounts on Martingale quickly add up when you're double your last losing bet everytime. You then quit when you're at a decent winning. At least that's the plan.

Do not play with martingle system you will loose all you money very fast! I am saying this from my personal experience! This is the best way to give your coins. As teory if you have unlimited amount of cash you will win the system ( and of course if there wasnt limits for betting) I saw examples of 30 loosing chain which is very fast way to make you poor .
BR
Gondel

How much were you betting and how much did you lose?

I have made a small spreadsheet where you can calculate the odds yourself based on the amount you want to bet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W_eAMRElsFZH--1npDBqBs_f-PoM7FsMBgPCzriYhSk

/edit fixed a bug

update: more recent version (beta version, maybe buggy)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1urhC3Su1ByvstzfKu5SOwUKYQm2xO0cXOisK8hawNn8

It's gambling. You can't say "it works" or "it doesn't work". To some extent, it does work, just like betting all your life savings on a 50% roll might also work, and it might fail. What you can say for sure however, is that it's not guaranteed to make you a profit.

However, you can make the probability that you will make a profit as high as you want -- 99.9% if you like. The tradeoff is that the profit you will make will be very small relative to the amount you will lose in that 0.1% case. (This is true even if the house imposes relatively low limits. You just need to make some small tweaks to the system. However, it will mean that you may need to play for a *very* long time.)

The fact that there is continued discussion on this "system" points the absurdity of the gambler's mind.  They think they can beat basic statistics by having a logical well-defined system.  You know those people who go down at 3AM when their wife or girlfriend is sleeping so they don't get caught.  The win about 20 rounds and then they get a bad streak and you see their faces as they mope through the casino.

These guys love to frequent the roulette table and think they can find patterns the colors.  ;)

Are you the same dude from Dragons Tale ?

The best is people who pee on the floor... in their seats... I mean if your on a winning streak.. no point getting up :|
they should sell little baggies in the casinos...
quite disgusting, but more common than most would think.

Two martingale facts:

1)Your win will be your initial bet, if you win. Your loss will grow exponentially after each loss. You'll have many small gains, then a huge loss way worse than your small gains added, without infinite money.

2) Gambling tables in general offers limits that makes really unprofitable using Martingale, either you are playing for really few money or your odds of losing all will increase dramatically

3) I'm certain that there are winning strategies to win casino games(some people got millionaire playing card games), but they would strongly depend on game's rules. Martingale can be applied to roulette, tails or heads, dices, etc..., so it cannot be a winning strategy

"There are people winning" ≠ "There are winning strategies".
For example, there are people winning the lotteries (Powerball in US, National Lottery in UK, etc), but the winners win just because of they are lucky.

If you believe the games are really fair, you should understand there are no "winning strategies".
If you believe the results can be predicted or follow some patterns (not really fair), you should stop betting.

:D

See for exemple the MIT blackjack team:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIT_Blackjack_Team

They managed to beat the casino. That was craz hard, but they did it.

Poker and other player vs player games are also casino games, with no house edge

Blackjack and poker games, are very much different from dice games and coin tossing.

After rolling a "6" with a fair dice, it won't change the chance for me to get another "6" in my next roll.
And if I know the result of the last 10 rolls, it won't help me make a better guess of the next 10 rolls.

The situation is completely different for poker games like blackjack.
If I see a "card 2" is delivered, I know there is one less "2" in the deck, and so the chance of getting a "2" is smaller now.
So, technique like counting cards will give you a better evaluation of chances of getting different cards, and hence give you an advantage.

Meaning you'd need infinite funds for it to work. I've been able to make profits using martingale, but I've also lost doing so. It might be a better strategy than any other, but it's no guarantee, that's all I'm saying.

Not only that. The chance of hitting your profit target (say, 20% or 100% profit) is indeed lower with martingale.
You can find a very long discussion on this in the thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=610339.0.

there is a good casino with a bot that works for unlimited time?

Primedice has automated betting. You can easily try martingale there, just fill out the right numbers and decide how many rolls you want to automate.

Its worth trying, alot of fun, but dont cry when its all over :)

Martingale system sucks due to the 1% house. So don't do it.

You would need infinite funds for it to work with 100% certainty (you would also need an unlimited house limit).

As long as your bankroll and the house limit is sufficiently above the minimum wager then you have a decent chance of winning. 

The strategy has proven to not work.

I just don't understand why people are developing a lot of scripts and wasting a lot of time coding to exploit a FAUCET. Yes, freebitco.in is ofcourse a faucet. And the answer to your question - Martingale will always give you loss unless and until you have infinite money to lose. And surely you don't have that because that is the reason you are visiting a faucet.

It won't always give you a loss. In fact, I won big the first two times I used it, but that was just luck. If you carry on using it you will lose. As with all gambling it's knowing when to quit whilst you're ahead.

How much did you win? And did you lose eventually?  ;D

You clearly do not know what the Martingale system is if you are winning big.  You are supposed to bet small, but repetively and keep nipping away until you win, then restart at a small bet.  Perhaps you meant you went onto 10 rounds of fail and then won, in which case you actually came close to completely failing.

So sad that people can't even enjoy gambling without having a system now lol. Gonna hit the craps table again.  Last time some old geyser tossed my wife a $1k coin at Wynn for being hot roller - easiest money we ever made  ;D

Um, no. I won big using the martingale system. Why are you so against people making money this way? I didn't say it was foolproof. Any way is a gamble and throwing your money at it the 'regular' way isn't exactly safer or even more 'fun'. I'd recommend people not even gamble at all to be honest.

it will never work you end up losing all bankroll in 24 losing streak which happen in 500k roll .

WHat about this, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion)? Has anyone tried it before?

I don't think there's any foolproof methods with games of chance. If there was casinos would be out of business.

you have a point there sir. I think there is no really easy way and i think that the faucet can detect if im using the system. hmmm

We have developed new betting script for freebitco.in.
It is NOT based on Martingale's strategy, and it can be used for gambling with any
multiplier.
It showed better results than our previous Martingale based script, so far.
Script can be found here http://phptaskforce.net/rabbitscript

phpTaskForce Team

every martingale system will fail you, because you dont have a infinite amount of bank roll.

But what if you do?  :D And any amount of gambling will fail you eventually.

Its more like martinfail.

Think about it for a sec, if it worked, then everyone would be doing this..

You can count cards in blackjack. This will give you a slight positive EV for each bet.

If you check the page carefully, you will see the kelly criterion tells you to never play in games with negative expected value. :D

Perhaps you and I have different meanings of the word "big". Big to me would be going in with 1k and walking out with 10K.

If that's what happened with you, then you must have bet 1K 10 times.  But mind you that if you lost the first bet, you're out  - that's not really using the Martingale system.  If you did the press system in such a scenario you would have won 1k2^10 or $1 million.

Please read any book on Martingale - the system relies on small bets that are repeated over and over.  it's very monotonous.  You can very easily come out ahead, but you don't win big like you would if you pressed your earnings.

Martingale has proven time and time again to get people to go broke. Better system is to start with 1 unit and increase after every win by 1 unit. If you get on a hot streak, you might be on to something good!

You can get a lose streak. If you do it like this even after you are in a very long lose streak, you would probably not going to be recovering from that loss.

Just tried this martingale crap.  You win a little and can sometimes double your earnings but I usually go bust before I have tripled them.

Better off doubling winnings

They have books written about this?

Why anyone would write (or buy) a book about a "system" that doesn't work is beyond me.

No matter which system you use, the house edge stays the same. However with martingale you either win big or lose bigger.

With flat bets you either win small or lose small.

So its all about the amount of risk you like to take.


Peope make money with selling scams all the time, selling a book about martingale is no dofferent.

if you wanna beat the casino, go to card games, blackjack and poker mostly. Not roulette, not dices, no martingale


Even a brand new user like me knows that

brand new to bitcoin maybe, not brand new to statistical probability most likely.

you'd be amazed how few people know about probability.

Probability is a tricky branch of mathematics. But once you mastered it you will be highly regarded and could earn lots of money with it.

it isn't so much a "system" but rather a probability concept

And to your surprise, there are more than one person in the service section asking people to "invest" in them, because they have a "winning strategy" in dice games. :P

Martingale system works only if you have unlimited fund, but if you have unlimited fund you don't need to gamble.

It does not work as anytime you will every gamble the "house" will have some kind of edge. This is how they make money and why they provide their "service" of allowing you to gamble away your money.

So if martingale is literally gambling i wont bother trying it. Gambling never worked for me.

Why is this thread so popular?  ;D  People looking for easy money.

Amazon has a couple of good reads on betting systems, I read one on the way to Vegas once and laughed.

If you want to win, find a casino off the strip and play single or double deck blackjack.

I am no longer allowed to gamble at Bellagio or it's affiliates, I'll just leave it at that  ;D

Hope it is because you win too much with your skills, rather than getting caught of cheating lol. :P

No system can guarantee you profit from casino.

Not true - you do not win big with the Martingale system, do the math. As you keep doubling down you are only ahead by the amount of your original bet. So when you finally win, you only win the amount of the first bet. When you lose, you can lose your entire bankroll. Since people can't seem to understand this on this thread, here is an example following the Martingale system (doubling your bet after every loss):

Bet 1: 5
Result: Lose
Loss/profit so far: -5

Bet 2: 10
Result: Lose
Loss/profit so far: -15

Bet 3: 20
Result: Lose
Loss/profit so far: -35

Bet 4: 40
Result: Lose
Loss/profit so far: -75

Bet 5: 80
Result: Lose
Loss/profit so far: -155

Bet 6: 160
Result: Win
Loss/profit so far: 5


So you can see that you end up putting down bets as high as 160 (and risking over 300) just to earn 5 in the end. And if the bet maximum would have been 100 for example, this person would have been screwed, just to try and earn 5.

Martingale is a crap system. End this thread.

Bitcoin gambling went on fire, that's why it's popular. Can you explain why you are banned from Bellagio ? Do they use only 4 sets of cars for Blackjack?

What i mean is that for example if you would have 1000 persons and each of these 1000 persons would have $255 and they make bets of $1 and use martingale. And each person would make 100 bets, than either they would make about $50 or they would lose everything. If you combines all the value than the net. result is a loss (if we assume a house edge). But some of the individuals may have gained a large profit, much larger than anyone could ever get by betting flat rate.

What i am saying is that the expected profit with any system or betting pattern does not increase, but that does not mean the distribution does not change. In fact all the martingale system does is increase the spread of the distribution moving it from a normal distribution to something else entirely.

http://www.poker.pp.ua/casino/pic/martingal.jpg

as you can clearly see, both the chance of winning as well as the amount won increases a lot by using martingale, however the downside is that when you lose, you lose big. While with flat betting you either lose a little or win a little, the results are much more controlled. However no matter which system you use the expected profit is ALWAYS 100%-house edge

What about the freedogeco.in? you get about 5-6 doge and betting with martingale wouldn't be so bad. Min bet to be like 0.02 or safer 0.001 and leave the bot to loop over night. Lesser chances to go bankrupt and there is a chance on the long runs.

Martingale will fail every time. But once, on some free PrimeDice rolls, I grinded it up to over .15 (from like .02) and eventually turned it into > 1 BTC from trading alts.

No it is not worth a try at all....
think about it, after three losses you are risking 8x your base bet just to win that amount
if you are going to martingale, start smaller and use 2.5x payouts so at least the more you lose, the more you win unlike martingale you simply win your base bet amount

Your returns would be too low, one doge is around 60 satoshis, at this rate you can make around 100Satoshi, if you are fast with a very very high chance of busting. In the long run nothing works, the house edge there is even higher than other places.

When I was younger they used to have single to quad deck tables.  It's very easy to count.  Obviously you need to be quick with the math, but it comes with practice.  I am still allowed to stay there, I just can't get a rewards card from Hilton and I am effectively banned from the higher tables.

It's OK though, craps has pretty good odds as long as you're not playing snake eyes or something like that.

i dont think that martingale works so dont lose you money just keep it and use it.. or if you want to lose send to me :d joking ..

The amounts that you bet do not make a difference. It is the fact that the difference between the minimum and maximum bet is usually too small for it to work as you would need to bet exponential greater amounts as you lose

Even if you have a very high balance and can afford many losses consecutively , it is still not a good idea to use martingale at all, because you will still get busted sooner or later with a very long losing streak.

The more you play the more you lose because the casino has an edge. Period. Gamble responsably to have fun and enjoy while it lasts ;)

+1.
With 1% house edge, you would lose 1% of your total wagered amount on average.
With the martingale strategy, you are going to risk a high amount for a small profit, and so the total wagered amount would be huge.

Unfortunately this is true, as a lot of people try to use martingale when the odds are not truly 50/50 that they will win their bet.

Every bet that you bet using martingale will earn the casino on average of 1% of your bet. As your bets get bigger and bigger the casino will simply make more off of your betting.

Thats what they call edge on the house , house edge will take you down .

No matter how much you have unless unlimited fund you will go broke in 24 streak that happen once in 500k roll .

Even if you have unlimited fund, you can't get more than 21 million bitcoin lol. :D

Recently tried a modified Martingale script of freebitco.in (not the regular one you can find anywhere). Worked out great to begin with, made constant profit, until I wanted the script to bet faster. I increased the speed by tons, and sure enough, turns out in the end you lose, no matter what. All earnings were gone within 30 seconds.

I like the martingale system in which you increase the bet a little bit more than 1x each time you loose. Additionally, I never double my bet after the first loss, I just keep it at the same amount, to get back the money from the original bet. Any thoughts on this?

Even if you win half of the times betting at 50% the house has an edge meaning you don't get paid exactly as much as you spend, so that's not a strategy that's gonna give you any profits.

Probably you'll lose money, even if you win before bursting, depending on how small is the 1.x. Your gain will be equal to your your first bet, if you make the first bet right, and less and less in the following ones, but your lose still will be exponential, and you still will wish to die when you burst.

Better you take care of your money. Don't even start to gamble because if sometime you will get Millions of BTC you will loose it on gambling ;) advice

If this did really work there would be no gambling sites because they would be bankrupt because everyone would be using this method.

This is not the Martingale system, it is just another gambling strategy that will ultimately result in your losing your entire bankroll

Gambling sites do lose a lot of money due to people gambling using the Martingale system. In fact, the majority of people who use the Martingale system properly will make money. There are gambling sites that have more losing days than winning days because they have a lot of customers who are using Martingale correctly.

Of course, they win a lot more. And when they have winning days, the amounts they win are *much* greater than the amounts they lose. That's what Martingale does. It's like a reverse lottery where the house gives you $1, but one in a million times they blow up your house, kill your children, and cut off a few of your fingers. (Perhaps the Hunger Games are a better analogy.)

Do you have a source on this?

The Martingale system can effectively be countered by a small spread between the minimum and maximum bet size allowed. 7

For example, if the min bet was .01 BTC and the max bet was 1.0BTC then the gambler would only need a loosing streak of 7 in order to fail. After the 7th loss the better will have just placed a bet of .64BTC and would need to bet 1.28BTC in order to continue using the system properly. If they only bet 1BTC and win then they would still be down .28BTC

Several conversations with small gambling site operators.

By "Martingale", I don't just mean the classic Martingale system but any progressive betting system whose purpose is to drastically decrease the gambler's probability of losing. The counter to having a small spread is the d'Alembert system.
http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/cancellation/

With a progressive system, you can reduce your chances of losing to be about as low as you like. It follows necessarily that the house's chance of losing can be pushed as high as you'd like. The cost, of course, is the amount you win gets small and the amount you lose, should you lose, gets very, very, very high.

I have been told that martingale end up with losing everything  :(

I would dispute this. If the house has an edge of n% then on average the house will make n% off of every bet that is wagered assuming that the gambler is not somehow cheating or manipulating the system

Well, if I am going to make one 98% bet every day for 100 days in PD, I could expect to have 98 "winning days" and only 2 "losing days" on average, but at the same time expect to lose 1% of my bet amount due to the 1% house edge.  :)

I don't gamble but I've seen friends online lose a lot of money using martingale on dice
Usually starts with "oh hey look at me making lots of money with this cool new method"
Ends up losing a ton of money

People usually do because they don't quit whilst they're ahead and get greedy and keep going until they've lost it all.

The first bet that you win you are ahead.  Most people will not quit after winning just one bet.

Try martingale on PD during Happy Hour and see how hard it is to get to 50K.  I tried for 3 happy hours and finally succeeded only to have the autobet continue 7 more rounds and lose almost everything.

Well the thing is that with martingale gamblers will need to go from potentially being up a small amount to being down a lot to make up their last lost bet

It starts well and ends terrible...that's usually how martingale works

But if it starts well, then why not stop and then do it again.

Build the balance in small increments or cash out each time so it adds up?

As I said above, you're up after 1 winning bet.  But who quits after 1 bet?  The answer is nobody.  The second bet might very well be the one that breaks your bank.  If you cash it out the odds are in casino's favor so you will most likely go bust before earning back your initial roll-out.

And eventually, you would just lose all your balance with a long losing streak.

Cashing out or building it in small increments doesn't help at all,  it does not affect the variance and in some time, you will eventually bust.

It will just cost you more tx fee for your withdrawals and re-deposits. :)

Hence a good strategy is use martingale and stop while you are ahead.

It is possible, although slim to lose out in the short run, there is still a small risk to bust.

Exactly.
And after you stop with a little bit profit today, you would likely come back tomorrow and repeat the process again and again to get some "easy profit"...

It is unlikely to encounter a long losing streak if you just play a handful of bets. But if you keep betting again and again, the chance will become larger and larger...

That is not inconsistent with what I said at all. It is absolutely true that if the house edge is n%, then the house's expected profit will be n% of the total amount wagered.

It's like solo mining versus pool mining at a low hash rate. The one thing that doesn't change is your expected return as a function of your hash rate. However, you can change the variance drastically.

Progressive betting systems allow gamblers to change the variance so much that the house loses money on more days than they make money. Of course, their average is still positive, the variance just becomes enormous.

Imagine if 99 days out of 100, the house loses $1,000, but one day out of 100, the house makes $1,000,000. That pattern shows the house losing most of the time but nevertheless having an expected profit on each wager. If all or most of the wagers are coming from progressive betting systems, the house's returns can take this kind of pattern.

The amount you will be ahead will always be small when using the martingale system. You will win in increments of your minimum bet, which by definition needs to be very small.

It's a good thing to start when you're ahead - sure, but the profit from each win is so tiny that you'll only be a few satoshis ahead anyways if you stop within a safe time frame.

wheres the script you found? are you still using it?

im looking for the same thing as well.

This is correct, the amount you will win needs to be very small compared to your original bankroll that you will need to go through several very bad streaks to potentially be up any meaningful amount.

As long as the house has the edge, you are facing an uphill battle.  If you try to win a little and stop the streak and wait for the next day, then the odds are that before you double your bankroll you will go bust.  Unless you quit after your very first win, you will always risk losing your entire bankroll.

lol, martingale. yeah that lost me some coins. ::)

If you repeat a progressive system, you defeat the entire point of the progressive system.

Lotteries have a very low amount that you lose relative to what you can win. The great thing about buying a lottery ticket is that at most you lose $1, and you can win millions. But if you keep buying lottery tickets every time you lose, you lost that advantage. And that advantage is the only good thing about a lottery.

Martingale, and other progressive betting systems, are reverse lotteries. The amount you win is small, but the odds of you losing are small too. If you play over and over, you defeat the entire point by drastically increasing the odds of a loss.

If you're going to play over and over, there's no point in using a progressive system. That undoes all the work of minimizing your chance of a loss that the progressive bets did.

Very well said.
The chance to lose 10 or 15 or 20 times consecutively is very low, but if you keep betting, it will eventually occur.

So how much can you make using martingale? It seems very little then.

Being able to double your bankroll using martingale is very difficult. You need to start with a bankroll large enough to have at least 10 consecutive losses in order to have a very small chance that you will lose your entire bankroll. However this means that you need to have a bankroll 1,024 times your original bet. So you would need to win a total of 1024 times before having 10 consecutive losses in order to double your bankroll.

I have tried a few runs with one satoshi as base. At lucky times, I made 200% the amount in one day while I have lost 0.001 within seconds on many other days. Your expected profit is and will be negative since House edge exist, people only use it because they think they can succeed.

Very very little. The amount you make is very small relative to the amount you can lose. In exchange, the probability that you will lose is very, very low.

It's like a lottery in reverse. With a lottery, the amount you lose is very, very small and the amount you can win is very, very large. But in exchange, the chance that you will win is very small. With a progressive betting system, the amount you win is very, very small. And the amount you can lose is very, very large. But in exchange, the chance that you will win is very high.

And with both, because the house has an edge, the house's expected profit will always be positive and the player's expected gain will always be negative.

I have used the 999dice autobot - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=563437.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=563437.0) which uses the Martingale system.

It started very well and I was up 40mBTC however a 20 round losing streak wiped me out.

That taught me a valuable lesson and I haven't used it since.

Do you have any screen shots of you doing this? I think that it is very far fetched that you could have tippled your money using the martingale system.

Unfortunately, no. It was pretty long time ago. Impossible to even profit from this in a long run. In many occasions, I have got a 18 lose streak. It was probably just my luck.

It depends on your luck, like in all gambling. But it is better to do a x2 bet than making hundreds or thousands of bets with martingale. :)

I call BS on this as 200% profit means that you have thousands of wins prior to losing 18 in a row. Your odds of that happening are just not there

Its up to you to believe it or not, I left it there for a few days, from 0.001 to 0.002.

It works for a brief amount of time until it bursts in a glorious flame. If you do it, double up and run. I have always managed to double and even triple up on it. Never turned a profit though because eventually, you will go bust.

Mathematically, it simply doesn't work. You are more likely to lose all you have through a bad streak than you are of reaching 200% profit. The exact calculation can be found lying around on the web.

First, he said "from 0.001 to 0.002", which is 100% profit only.
True that it is more likely to lose the whole balance, but the chance to get 100% profit isn't that low statistically speaking.

Getting 200% profit means simply going to from 0.001 to 0.003.  If you bet 0.001, won, and then bet another 0.001 and won - you would be at the same place.  You have a slightly less than 1/4 chance using conventional betting assuming a near 50/50 odds.

Oops, sorry I meant 100% profit per day. Well, I ran it for a few days, 10 hours per day and didn't bust. Mathematically speaking, it isn't possible, but there is a small chance it can happen. Which is true. I rarely have that streak again. There are more lose streaks than win streak. It was a long time ago anyway. My bot is pretty fast, average 6 bets per second.

It is possible but it is just very unlikely. It is even less credible with the absence of proof.

don't play and you'll be the winner

While ranochigo has no proof of the doubling, we also have no proof that he is lying. And, I don't see any incentive he has to make up such a story, and even ranochigo him doesn't suggest people to use martingale.
We should just let it go. :)

dont use that scrypt suddenly your all bitcoins will remove .. so dont try if you dont want to lose..

Honestly, I don't have the time to make up such a story, I have much better things to do. I just want to say one successful experience and yes, I have lost quite some money in martingale. I did not encourage anyone to use martingale, furthermore I discourage people to use it. What can I gain from making up such a story anyway?

I have loss 15 times in a row so the best is just avoid gambling.

It is even possible for 20+ loss in a row. I have seen people losing like 25 or more in a row. As usual varience is a key, the lose streak will come eventually if you play long enough.

There are plenty of potential incentives for anyone to make up a story.

But isnt that house edge like any gambling site.

Thats where the 1% house edge comes in... or are they referring to per roll?

why ... loose all for what?   ??? ???

This is exactly correct. Over time you will have both winning and loosing streaks that stretch into the double digits. This will not happen often but it will happen. Very similar to how there can be multiple blocks found just seconds apart from eachother

Hey, I hope I can give you some advice, as I'm someone who's spent a significant amount of time gambling and working on the best ways to turn profit over the years.  First off, there's never a guaranteed method to win every time, unless you've found a way to cheat.  Even cheating isn't a guaranteed win if you find a way to do it.  For example, card counting in blackjack.  You don't actually know when a card is coming up, but you add and subtract based on the cards that have been drawn out of the shoe, and you're waiting for when the numbers go further in one direction, indicating that there is a significantly greater chance of 10's drawn than normal, which increases your odds of pulling a 20 on the flop and also increases the chance that the house will bust, due to the rules outlining hitting (anything under 17) and staying (anything 17 and up).

So let's get into what you're wanting to do, make money.  Firstly, if you're going with the 2x multiplier, the odds are as close to in your favour as you can get.  The odds against you are just over 1.05x, or you could say your odds at winning are 0.95x.  All gambling games win because of that.  These odds basically mean that if you sat there and kept playing, the house will win 100 hands for your 95.  You'll but in a few bitcoin, go up, go down, then up, but not as far up, then down more, and it'll continue over time.  However, the first thing you have to do is set rules.  I know having a losing streak for 50 hands in a row seems almost impossible, even though we all know it can happen, but the one truth that I can tell you is that the more hands you play, the higher your chances are of having that happen.  So you really should set a limit on how many hands you will play.  Either have a definitive number or have a maximum number, and stick with it.  It's tempting if you're down to try and win the money back, but it's much better to cash out and come back tomorrow.  You'll be clear thinking and have greater chances of winning the next day with a fresh start.  I recommend having a hand limit no higher than 100.  You can always do 100 hands twice in a day.

Next, you're already on the right track...  Looking for a betting strategy.  Mathematics, son!  Mathematics is the key to closing the gap on the house's edge, and sometimes being able to actually tip them in your favour.  Now the Martingale system is the first one people usually come up with.  You won't want to use a bot with it if you're experimenting, it WILL absolutely get you to the point where your money's all gone.  Too fast at betting, and not able to make the decision to walk away.  The problem with the Martingale system is exponential growth.  The amount you could lose compared to how much you can win actually slights the house's edge even more.  Let's say you set a rule that you'll walk away if you lose 6 hands in a row, which carries a 2.1256% chance of losing your 63 chips you've got at the bankroll to support 6 losing hands.  You have pretty good odds of winning that 1 chip, at 97.8744%.  You double up every hand to win that one unit back, so if you're on 5 losses, and on your last roll, if you're trying to win $5 you're risking $315.  If you sit down and play, you will absolutely reach this level at some point.  If you play 200 hands, you're almost guaranteed to reach this point before the 200th hand.  The only time you should use the Martingale system is when you have a very large bankroll, and you're looking to make a little bit of pocket change.  e.g., If you want $50 to go out with friends on the weekend, or want to put gas in the car but not actually be out the money, head to the casino with $1500 to $2000 in your pocket, sit down at Blackjack, Baccarat or War (roulette's red/black and odd/even is actually much worse chances due to the 0 and 00 spot) and set your starting unit at $10, and set your walk away point at $50 or less.  It's almost impossible to lose when aiming at winning between 1 and 3 times, but I usually go up to 5 with it.  I've lost maybe around $600 or $700 once, and about $300 or $400 another time like this, but I've won $50 exponentially more times.

The D'alembert Method actually works much better with slightly tweaked rules, and increases your odds, speeds up the rate at which you earn money while slowing down the speed at which you can lose money, with the only downside really being that it takes more concentration to maintain your focus and rules.  In order to try and win $50 in with $5 units, you'll probably be either busted or have won before you reach 30 hands, but the D'alembert Method is slower, and could run you the whole 100 and not have you there yet.  This is a system I used for a long time, and you can actually play for hours with it, as long as you watch for one risk I'll get into in a moment.  The basics of the D'alembert Method is that you start with one unit, and if you lose, you increase by one unit on the next hand, lose again, increase the bet one more unit.  Then, if you win the next hand, decrease one unit.  Lose again, increase one, then the next one, you win, so let's decrease it one more unit.  Now take a look at the math of the example I just gave; -$5, -$10, +$15, -$10, +$15.  You just lost 3 hands out of 5, but you are up $5.  Also, let's say you had the same 63 units bankroll as a 6-loss Martingale bank, so $315.  If you lost 6 in a row, you're down $105 instead of $315.  Still $210 bankroll left to play with, so your next hand is $35 and you win, you're down to $70 behind.  If you use this method, you will find you get to bets in the $20 to $30 range easily, but stick to your rules, and you work the house edge right back.  The edge against you in Blackjack is the second smallest in the casino (as long as you can follow the blackjack strategy and not allow human emotion to get you to stay when strategy says hit, or vice versa).  The best odds game removes that from the equation, though, which is betting on Banker in Baccarat (though payout is 0.95:1).  Lastly, let me explain what I hinted to earlier, the biggest flaw or risk in this method...  Losing streaks, where you're winning 1 of 5 hands, or say lose 6 in a row, win one, then lose another 5. Or possibly losing 3 of 5, so you're making profits still, but your bets are getting high.  I've been up a couple hundred profit, but been upward of $150 hands before I thought this through.  The higher your bet, the greater the chance of breaking your bank from a smaller losing streak.  So set rules in this area too.  Some rules I've used well (and this is where the concentration really kicks in for this method) are having interim win points set, like reset goals or even taking a break to go for a walk or a drink then and returning after (don't stay at any game for too long, always make sure to sit, grab what you can, then leave for at least a bit).  For example, if I'm getting $100 or $200 today, I'm going to do it in $50 chunks.  It's harder for casino edges to get their hooks in with short-terms.  I do my bets like above, keeping count of what my next hand's bet will be on the win or loss, and also keeping track of my +/- balance in my head.  The moment I reach +50, it's break time.  Even still, while working to $50, certain times, it's going to be a back and forth game, and your bets will be getting higher and higher, so determine a rule for that for the day, like once the bet becomes $20+, the moment you reach +2 units from your last highest balance, you reset to the initial $5 bet.  Risk of high bets destroying your bankroll averted.

The last one that I find you can have a lot of fun with is the Fibonacci Method, using those magical numbers that can be found in everything, everywhere you go... Be it in sunflowers or how rabbits breed (true).  The Fibonacci sequence starts at 0, then increases.  You get the next number in the sequence by adding the last two together.  Here's what the beginning of the infinite sequence looks like.  0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, .... Now, you can develop your own methods for betting, but once again, make rules that keep you in check and don't aim to stay sitting too long.  This method is similar to the Martingale, but your bankroll can handle a larger loss run, if you make it through a loss run you have the ability to actually gain more than one unit out of it, and you can get to your win goal quicker due to the structure resulting in a more balanced risk to gain with possible loss and profits.  Not to mention, it's math, so you'll be developing and working out the logical portion of your brain while doing it!  With these numbers, you can set anywhere in the series as your starting point, and you can choose between betting those numbers as currency, like $8, $13, or you could use them as units for your bets, like 5 $5 chips, then 8 $5 chips, etc.  This is not like the D'alembert modified method I've listed above, however, you will, like Martingale, bust if you try and keep going and going.  I personally don't go over 50 hands max with this method, and usually make more than I ever came close to with Martingale, due to the versatility of the magic numbers.  You stage the bets like my version of the D'alembert, but instead of only winning 1 unit of the last series, regardless of how long of a streak you're losing, you always win back the money from the previous two bets.  Due to this fact, an extremely efficient way to bet is to move up in the sequence one number for each loss, and each win, go back two.  If you win only 1 of every 3, you will break even, but you'll win more often than that in the long run, so I usually just follow through with 2 back on a win until I'm back at my starting bet again, then keep going.  As for when the numbers get higher, after a loss on 34, I modify the rules to minimize a high loss percentage streak from letting my bets get outside of my bank by adding a rule to start from the beginning when and if I win 2 of 3 hands, either 2 in a row or W/L/W, as both of them will result in a significant profit.  You could also have a forward 1 on loss, back 1 on win bet, and implement a point where you will do the two steps back or 2 in 3 win reset to prevent the chances of it getting too high..  This method works best on games of chance where you don't control any of the game, such as betting Banker on Baccarat, Casino War, High-Low or Sic-bo, craps, and roulette (I enjoy roulette with this method, otherwise hate the game).  In games like roulette, or the freebitco.in over/under game, this method has one more way of betting that can be more profitable in a shorter timeframe, too (not without increased risk).  With the over/under game, there's the option to increase the payout by decreasing the numbers that're over/under...  If you set the payout up to 3:1, you can increase the bet to the next number with every loss, and 1 win will allow you to reset to the starting number. I recommend starting with at least 5, so that way on a hot streat you actually win a more significant amount.


Phew.  That was a lot of explaining.  Please experiment, but I'm sure that this explanation will help you understand some more elaborate and more efficient strategies.  Keep in mind that you need to set rules and guidelines every time you're about to log in or go somewhere to gamble, choosing and modifying the right ones based on your experience with them will increase your success in the games, whereas breaking your self-imposed rules will put you at risk for losing much more than you planned.  You are never on a roll, so never stay past your limit thinking you'll just go for a bit more.  I've done this many times, and sometimes ended up with good results, most often though, went up a bit, almost lost everything, then made it back to less than if I walked at my limit. Though I mentioned above I'd lost larger amounts twice, though only a portion of the bank I had with me.  Never put your whole bank up or dip back into your pocket to add to the bankroll you're playing with.  I like to go into a casino with $2,000 ideally, but never less than $1,000.  I never cash it all into chips, this is my overall bankroll.  I separate it into at least 4 parts, and then if you lose a game's bankroll, you have much more than that left, so you can make it back.  If you bankrupt that too, it's probably good to take the rest of the week off, but you've got multiple chances to make any losses back with the separate banks.  I haven't ever lost my second of 4 or 5 bankrolls though.  Remember, the D'alembert will work best when you want to play for longer times, or multiple times throughout the day, and the Fibonacci is when you want to get in and out.




--I'm 30 years old and have been a gambler since I was 19.  It took years to develop and work out the best ways to increase profitability, and when I gamble, I don't gamble for fun, just for profit.  Try out my methods, and let me know how you're doing with them.  If you've got any questions, let me know and I'll give you the best answers I can.  Hope you break the bank on freebitco.in !


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Their house edge is caused by their rules and subtle things that are harder to notice...  The percentage point edge doesn't cause 20 losses in a row, that's just statistical probability.  In games of chance that rely on shuffling, rolling dice, etc., statistical probability basically realizes that everything will happen at some point.  You will get 20 losses in a row, you will get 20 wins in a row at some point, as long as you stay.  It's like pulling a blackjack followed by another.  It happens, it's statistically not often, but it does and will happen.  If you want to not get large loss-runs, then to decrease your chances, don't play as long.  That's how the house edge takes people.  If they have a 1% average, and you start with $100, their rules and games will result in taking $1 from that $100 every hour, on average.  Long sittings just increase your chances of the chance circumstances, both good and bad, of happening.  If you're wanting to make money, minimizing the chances of those occurrences is best. 

Where the edge comes from, in, say...  A BTC dice game is how they set the high/low and the bets.  Some of them display high as 5250 to 9999 and the low at 4750 down to 1.  High/low as a name gives the impression it's 50/50, but actually that would be a 0.95 chance of winning, not an even chance.  Just-dice cleverly uses decimals to distract people, >50.4999, <49.5000.  It's very distracting and misleading, subconsciously gives you the idea that it's one or the other, but you bet high, you get 50.4999 to 99.9999, whereas they get 0.0001 to 50.4998.  The button says <49.5000 but that's only for you if you click on low.  They get the edge from the extra 4 decimals' worth of number combinations that could be there.  I think that's actually a much higher edge on just dice than 1%.  Casinos, also, they use the 0 and 00 sections on Roulette that give them more than a 2% edge on people betting on the more straightforward one or the other bets.

Counting cards is technically not cheating as it is not illegal, nor does it give an advantage that is not available to anyone else.

Cheating would be if you were to somehow rig the game so that you know the outcome prior to placing your bet. 

This. A straight martingale method is never going to guarantee you anything. The house has an edge. You do not have an unlimited bank roll. You WILL fail. However, you can do smaller martingales and take your profit and run. I wouldn't even bother but it's possible.

So funny to see this thread attracting so many posts.  Guess people are trying to find an easy way to make money or they enjoy the thrill where they think the accomplished something by transiently beating the house.

But I believe you are not allowed to count cards in real-life casinos, and will be "asked" to leave, isn't it?

True lol.
There is a house edge in placed, but people believe they can change the situation by play those "negative EV" games repeatedly. :P

You would be asked to leave if you are caught counting cards, but remember that card counting is done in your head. Even if you are asked to leave you will still not be charged with any crimes for doing this.

90% of the posts are people explaining martingale will never work, as long as the house has an edge and you don't have infinite money to bet with, though.

I did something similar last time I played roulette... :)

It is guarantee to happen if you play long enough.

Such streak is rare, but not so rare if you bet repeatedly for thousands of times.

Martingale is good for free money, but I wouldn't risk anything. Risking too much for too little gain.

Nah, even for free money (say, PD happy hour), I would just make some 100x bets rather than using martingale. :)

someone tried martingale in dice ???

I ran several simulations of the systems for dice.  Martingale is a system with a lot of risk.
There are systems which have less risk but still a decent payout.

Trust me, I've tried it and no, far from good. I've also tried it with FreeDoge.co.in, using only 0.001 doge as a starting bet but it still doesn't work.

and if you win last bet total profit =1 satoshi :) :)

Martingale System is for veeeery rich person. In this system you will win only on paper.

Nah, most gambling site have max bet so :)

If you're betting on red, and black falls 30 times. On 31. bet you still have 50% chance to win/lose! Martingale do not work.

Nope. take it from someone who lost 7 btc(not all at once either). Honestly you know you are going to win and you know you are going to lose at some point right? The chances of you losing 3 times in a row at an 85% chance to win are very low, what I usually did was bet at the 85% chance to win level, do a bunch of .00000010 bets then if i had 2 or 3 losses in a row do a .001 bet and a super majority of the time i would win it.

The only issue is that eventually you trick yourself into betting .1 and 1.0 BTC, thats when it starts to get out of control and you can lose it all very fast. If your really want to win you could sit there for hours like i did. I easily turned .1 btc into 2 btc before doing t his type of thing. I call it "timing your losses". Out of like 30,000 bets at that level i only ever lost 4 times in a row a few times. if you lose 3 times in a row its almost a gaurnteed win to bet big(but thats how i lost it all cuz i got tooo greedy). if i would have stuck to what i did and slowly make money i would have been better off, but it is extremely boring and takes a massive amount of time. if you start with .1 btc it might take you an hour to turn it into .2 btc but with the way i did it it honestly mostly works. good luck and dont do a big bet! just keep your big bet to like .001 and u will never risk losing it all, it is a lot easier to recover from losing .001 than it is to recover from losing 7 btc!

If you found high risk in progressive betting systems like Martingale then you are doing it very, very wrong. You can make the risk as low as you want with Martingale. That is its whole point. The one actual benefit to progressive betting systems like Martingale is that you can make the risk arbitrarily low. The tradeoff, of course, is that the amount you win gets very, very small relative to the amount that you lose.

The math is what it is. The house always has an edge proportional to the total amount you bet.

yeah it only works if you have a infinite bank roll.

Its better do do 1 BTC @ 97% every so often.

btc max bank roll is just 21M  ;D

This is one of the biggest problem of this system.
Next one is that we need a huge bankroll.

Huge bankroll is infinite. You will lose in the long run no matter what. Varience ensures that you don't get the same amount of win and loses, you will eventually hit a very long streak and there goes your bankroll. Also, the house edge decreases your likelyhood of winning.

100% right.
That is way I prefer the d'alembert system. There is less profit but our bankroll is more safe.

Even if there is no max bet and you have a huge bankroll, martingale won't work as you will just hit a long enough loss streak eventually.

Unless you have unlimited bankroll ;)

If I have unlimited bankroll, why would I deposit my *unlimited* bitcoin to the casino trying to earn a little more bitcoin lol? ;)

+1. That is way this system in worthless.

BTW. Maybe this *unlimited* is like this: " Mom give me some more money" ;)

You will not necessarily eventually hit a very long streak. Progressive systems tell you when to stop, and it is far, far more likely that you will stop before you hit such a long streak.

Progressive systems are bad enough without having to misrepresent the one thing that is actually good about them. The one good thing about progressive betting systems is that you are much more likely to make a profit than suffer a loss.

Remember that the Martingale works best in the short term. The more you play, the more likely you are to lose, because the more you play the more likely you are to lose several bets in a row and then run out of money or run against the table limit

While that's true, it's useless. You can't control how long a progressive betting system takes. If you're lucky, it will finish very quickly, and you will win. But if it takes a long time, the only way you can stop is by eating your losses.

To use a progressive betting system rationally, you should know before you start precisely what your stopping conditions are. That way, you know very precisely what your odds of winning are and how much you stand to lose.

If you're going to "wing it" and stop betting when you feel like it, don't bother using a betting system. The point of betting systems is to provide you with precise mathematical characteristics that you get to choose -- what your odds or winning are, what the maximum amount you can lose is, and so on. There's no point in going to all the trouble if you're not going to execute to the conclusion.

you will loose - and that's all
all casinos go down fast if martingale will win  :D :D

That actually can happen if the casino isn't sufficiently well financed. If most of the users of a casino or betting system are using progressive betting systems like Martingale, the casino can have many days in a row in which they take small losses. However, so long as they are sufficiently well-funded, eventually one or more of their users will go broke and they will post a huge win that swamps all the small losses they took.

Rational casinos love winners, they generate lots of betting activity. Their expected profit is proportional to the total betting activity.

Hate Martingale system, it never worked for some reason...

Martingale need many capitals / coins to make this method works
and need some courage to bet with so many coins in single roll
anyone know another method to bet, like martingale one

Well said. But most of the gamblers I see are not that rational.
When they are down, they usually deposit more trying to win it back. And when they are up, they feel like it is their lucky day and keep playing.

Most likely, it was because you were using the system over and over. This defeats its entire purpose.

The sole purpose of progressive betting systems like Martingale is to accept a low potential profit in exchange for a low probability of losing. If you repeat the system over and over, you increase the potential profit and raise the probability of losing, defeating the sole advantage of such systems.

have tried martingale system on one of those dice sites with enough balance to cover like 17 loosing streak. And guess what? I've just recorded a 24 loosing streak. The highest ever on that dice site. So, no, Martingale system is not good enough.

Yup, this is why I never recommend the martingale system, you lose everything with it.

Presumably when you started betting you accepted that if you were unlucky enough to lose 24 times in a row, you would suffer precisely the losses you suffered. To say it didn't work because you were unlucky is absurd. Martingale's job is not to make you lucky, it's to let you choose precisely the risk/reward/loss characteristics you choose. If you got those characteristics, it worked.

Unless you do the math wrong, these systems work perfectly. They let you choose precisely the combinations of risks, reward, and loss you want. If you don't choose them wisely, don't blame the system.

true!
sometimes you can do good runs, but eventually, you're gonna lose all because of bad luck..

No, that's not true. That's, in fact, extremely unlikely. You can make it as unlikely as you wish, though the amount you win decreases if you do so.

34 streaks is very bad. Is it possible only on freebetco.in or on any dice site?
Sometimes I have a feeling that probability is different on different sites.
 

Well the issue is that you will likely eventually have a bad luck streak as you play for longer periods of times. There is also a greater chance that you have a very long good streak however this does not matter as martingale will only allow you to make small amounts for each win as you have a good winning streak

I tried Martingale System and I can say with certainty that Martingale almost allways fail. The main reason is that you need a huge amount of money.

Actually you need an infinite amount(not a pun), as stated in the Wikipedia article.

Of Course, every time when you lose, you need to double your investment. In theory it sounds easy, but when you start play it's not. After every investment you can lose.

For example:
invest:
1 - lose
2 - lose
4 - lose
8 - lose
16 - lose
32 - lose
64 - lose
128 - lose

and so on

Right, but it's very unlikely that you play for longer periods of time.

That's the whole point. You accept a smaller profit in exchange for a very low chance of loss.

With Martingale, you will risk to lose everything. On the long term , the chances of winning are lower than lose.

You need an unlimited amount of money and the casino needs to accept unlimited bets.
It doesn't help if the casino has an upper limit on the amount which can be bet.

That can be fixed with trivial adjustments to the betting system.
http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/cancellation/

You still need a very large bankroll to win a very small amount of money. But the probability that you will come out ahead can reach around 99% under realistic conditions.

maybe it worth but u need have many bitcoin before u think play gambling with martiangle... and u know what risk if u gamble

This is true for all gambling. So don't gamble more than you can afford to lose.


So you need to set a target and stop when you reach it.

You may better try that system on Freedoge.co.in

the martingale system is more of a martinfail system, unless you have a unlimited huge bank roll.

It is doesn't work ;) but this should not be surprise ;)

why does everyone even try it then?  ???

because it´s easy, it´s fast and it works very well until fail

I have seen the craziest stuff happening with people that martingale, I know some 1 that made 200x of what he started with, than he lost it all=P