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Author Topic: Martingale System  (Read 11343 times)
cooldgamer
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June 20, 2014, 06:23:57 PM
 #41

It may work for a short while, but when you lose, you lose big.  It's worth a shot for faucets and 'free' BTC, but certainly not to actually try to make some coins.

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June 20, 2014, 06:43:57 PM
 #42

It may work for a short while, but when you lose, you lose big.  It's worth a shot for faucets and 'free' BTC, but certainly not to actually try to make some coins.

It's great for freerolls, like on PrimeDice. You can actually have a shot at running it up, withdrawing some profit, and letting the rest run. But it's a bit risky to do with your own money, IMO.

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June 20, 2014, 06:47:52 PM
 #43

As it is pure probability, it can work, but there is no guarantee.
However the chance is probably higher than winning the lottery  Smiley

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June 21, 2014, 12:12:33 AM
 #44

As i allready explained somewhere , martingale is not a good system enough, since you have to have like 100 BTC to be able to make 0.001 per day with a really fast script to be on the safe side.

There are a lot of people that can confirm that 34 streaks (non winning numbers) happened , now to transform that in numbers:

1-0.00000001
..
.
.
32-21.47483648
33-42.94967296
34-85.89934592
Sum till this bet is 171.79869183 BTC, Are you still sure you want to do martingale?


What would happen then if I waited till there had been already a run of 10 or 15  non winning streaks and then started betting.

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June 21, 2014, 12:26:05 AM
 #45

As it is pure probability, it can work, but there is no guarantee.
However the chance is probably higher than winning the lottery  Smiley

the problem is with martingale you can lose more fast than lottery, even if you have bad luck you can lose only in 5 min

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June 21, 2014, 01:19:28 AM
Last edit: June 21, 2014, 01:43:50 PM by ranochigo
 #46


What would happen then if I waited till there had been already a run of 10 or 15  non winning streaks and then started betting.

You can get another runs of lose streak or you can have some win and loses. No bets affect each other, even if you have alot of lose, it cannot be guaranteed your next one will be a win. There is a equal chance of either a win or lose.

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June 21, 2014, 01:37:08 PM
Last edit: June 21, 2014, 04:02:33 PM by Bizmark13
 #47

I didn't know what Martingale was until I read about it and realized I was actually doing the exact same thing on Freebitco.in when I wanted to turn my balance into a nice round number just before withdrawing - e.g. having a balance of 29,980 satoshis and betting 20 satoshis to reach 30,000 satoshis. If I lose the bet, I would bet 40 satoshis, and so on until I won it all back plus the 20 satoshis. It worked well for me so far but I would definitely stop if I lost a large enough amount (fortunately that hasn't happened yet).

Martingale works semi-reliably if you have a very large balance and only bet very small amounts. But anything more than that and people tend to underestimate the frequency of losing streaks. The more bets you place in order to bring yourself to a reasonable profit, the more you're exposing yourself to encountering such a losing streak, and when that happens, you can easily blow away your entire balance - thus negating the strategy overall.

EDIT: Some rewording.
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June 21, 2014, 08:05:00 PM
 #48


What would happen then if I waited till there had been already a run of 10 or 15  non winning streaks and then started betting.

You can get another runs of lose streak or you can have some win and loses. No bets affect each other, even if you have alot of lose, it cannot be guaranteed your next one will be a win. There is a equal chance of either a win or lose.

If you have a string of bad "luck" then you could quickly either hit the max bet or your bankroll would run out. This is the flaw of this type of gambling system.

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June 22, 2014, 03:23:27 AM
 #49

What would happen then if I waited till there had been already a run of 10 or 15  non winning streaks and then started betting.

The bets are independent, so the chance of future bets will stay the same.
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June 22, 2014, 04:06:04 AM
 #50

What would happen then if I waited till there had been already a run of 10 or 15  non winning streaks and then started betting.

The bets are independent, so the chance of future bets will stay the same.

Yup:

Quote from: Wikipedia
The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen less frequently in the future, or that if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). In situations where what is being observed is truly random (i.e. independent trials of a random process), this belief, though appealing to the human mind, is false...

...There is another way to emphasize the fallacy. As already mentioned, the fallacy is built on the notion that previous failures indicate an increased probability of success on subsequent attempts.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy
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June 22, 2014, 09:45:08 AM
 #51

As long as the house has an edge there is no "system" to beat them - just algorithms to control your losses  Cheesy
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June 22, 2014, 09:49:31 AM
 #52

Martin gale will work on small ammounts on a big balance. Just quit whilst you're ahead and don't get greedy.

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June 22, 2014, 09:50:50 AM
 #53

As long as the house has an edge there is no "system" to beat them - just algorithms to control your losses  Cheesy
That's right. You can change the odds around, but the edge remains precisely the same. If the house edge is 1% and your total bet is X, your expected profit is -X/100.

You can make it much more likely that you'll win than that you'll lose, and thus much more likely that the house will lose than that they'll win. But when you do lose, it will be *huge*.

So, you can turn this: 51% of the time you lose $1, 49% of the time you make $1.
Into this: 99.9% of the time you make $1, 0.1% of the time you lose just over $1,000.

Bitcoin betting systems see lots of people using Martingale. As a result, they have long stretches in which they lose money. Operators have become concerned that there was an exploit or defect in their system. But then you have the good day that makes up for all the losses.

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June 22, 2014, 09:53:29 AM
 #54

Martin gale will work on small ammounts on a big balance. Just quit whilst you're ahead and don't get greedy.

If the very first bet fails, and you keep doubling down as per the system you could very well lose your betting cap and not have made a single satoshi.

If you're going to gamble, just place the damn bets independently and enjoy it responsibly.  Don't try to out-hink a system which is stacked against you.
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June 22, 2014, 09:55:04 AM
 #55

Martin gale will work on small ammounts on a big balance. Just quit whilst you're ahead and don't get greedy.
Not really, you can also bust on the first few rounds, even if you have a big balance, the risk is actually higher here.

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June 22, 2014, 09:58:17 AM
 #56

Martin gale will work on small ammounts on a big balance. Just quit whilst you're ahead and don't get greedy.
That makes it a reverse lottery. That increases your probability of winning, but also increases the ratio of how much you win to how much you lose. It's like a reverse lottery where you get $1, but you have a one in a million chance of losing your house, wife, car, kids, job, and dignity.

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June 22, 2014, 10:07:35 AM
 #57

martingale system is like playing with electricity.  don't do it, lol.
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June 22, 2014, 11:30:46 AM
 #58

As long as the house has an edge there is no "system" to beat them - just algorithms to control your losses  Cheesy

True for the dice system, at least in my experience.
You could get up to 80% profit using a good algorithm and a little luck, but more than 100% will quickly fail

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June 22, 2014, 08:44:14 PM
 #59

Will work if you have an infinite supply of wealth. Smiley

is it really worth the try. i'm curious about it and want to try it on freebitco.in. I also found a script online.

For martingale to work two things need to be true:

1) The gambler needs infinite amount of wealth/bankroll
2) The casino/house needs infinite amount of price money

If either of these statements is false, martingale will not be profitable in the long run.

Justdice only has a 1% house edge though, (and recently luck has been 100.05%) so your profitability could be 99% which is much better than most other casinos.

However don't gamble to become rich, as gamlbing will only make you poor. Gamble for fun if you like.

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June 22, 2014, 08:58:05 PM
 #60

Martin gale will work on small ammounts on a big balance. Just quit whilst you're ahead and don't get greedy.
Not really, you can also bust on the first few rounds, even if you have a big balance, the risk is actually higher here.

This gambling system works so that you must take ever escalating risks to potentially receive a small reward that does not increase with your increased risk.

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