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Author Topic: Martingale System  (Read 11343 times)
InwardContour
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July 06, 2014, 03:43:24 AM
 #181


It starts well and ends terrible...that's usually how martingale works

But if it starts well, then why not stop and then do it again.

Build the balance in small increments or cash out each time so it adds up?

And eventually, you would just lose all your balance with a long losing streak.

Hence a good strategy is use martingale and stop while you are ahead.

It's a good thing to start when you're ahead - sure, but the profit from each win is so tiny that you'll only be a few satoshis ahead anyways if you stop within a safe time frame.
This is correct, the amount you will win needs to be very small compared to your original bankroll that you will need to go through several very bad streaks to potentially be up any meaningful amount.
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July 06, 2014, 05:18:46 AM
 #182

As long as the house has the edge, you are facing an uphill battle.  If you try to win a little and stop the streak and wait for the next day, then the odds are that before you double your bankroll you will go bust.  Unless you quit after your very first win, you will always risk losing your entire bankroll.
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July 06, 2014, 05:27:09 AM
 #183

lol, martingale. yeah that lost me some coins. Roll Eyes
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July 06, 2014, 06:38:16 AM
 #184

As long as the house has the edge, you are facing an uphill battle.  If you try to win a little and stop the streak and wait for the next day, then the odds are that before you double your bankroll you will go bust.  Unless you quit after your very first win, you will always risk losing your entire bankroll.
If you repeat a progressive system, you defeat the entire point of the progressive system.

Lotteries have a very low amount that you lose relative to what you can win. The great thing about buying a lottery ticket is that at most you lose $1, and you can win millions. But if you keep buying lottery tickets every time you lose, you lost that advantage. And that advantage is the only good thing about a lottery.

Martingale, and other progressive betting systems, are reverse lotteries. The amount you win is small, but the odds of you losing are small too. If you play over and over, you defeat the entire point by drastically increasing the odds of a loss.

If you're going to play over and over, there's no point in using a progressive system. That undoes all the work of minimizing your chance of a loss that the progressive bets did.

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July 06, 2014, 06:15:32 PM
 #185

As long as the house has the edge, you are facing an uphill battle.  If you try to win a little and stop the streak and wait for the next day, then the odds are that before you double your bankroll you will go bust.  Unless you quit after your very first win, you will always risk losing your entire bankroll.
If you repeat a progressive system, you defeat the entire point of the progressive system.

Lotteries have a very low amount that you lose relative to what you can win. The great thing about buying a lottery ticket is that at most you lose $1, and you can win millions. But if you keep buying lottery tickets every time you lose, you lost that advantage. And that advantage is the only good thing about a lottery.

Martingale, and other progressive betting systems, are reverse lotteries. The amount you win is small, but the odds of you losing are small too. If you play over and over, you defeat the entire point by drastically increasing the odds of a loss.

If you're going to play over and over, there's no point in using a progressive system. That undoes all the work of minimizing your chance of a loss that the progressive bets did.


Very well said.
The chance to lose 10 or 15 or 20 times consecutively is very low, but if you keep betting, it will eventually occur.
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July 06, 2014, 06:52:15 PM
 #186

So how much can you make using martingale? It seems very little then.
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July 06, 2014, 07:01:43 PM
 #187

As long as the house has the edge, you are facing an uphill battle.  If you try to win a little and stop the streak and wait for the next day, then the odds are that before you double your bankroll you will go bust.  Unless you quit after your very first win, you will always risk losing your entire bankroll.
Being able to double your bankroll using martingale is very difficult. You need to start with a bankroll large enough to have at least 10 consecutive losses in order to have a very small chance that you will lose your entire bankroll. However this means that you need to have a bankroll 1,024 times your original bet. So you would need to win a total of 1024 times before having 10 consecutive losses in order to double your bankroll.

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July 06, 2014, 09:05:38 PM
 #188

So how much can you make using martingale? It seems very little then.
I have tried a few runs with one satoshi as base. At lucky times, I made 200% the amount in one day while I have lost 0.001 within seconds on many other days. Your expected profit is and will be negative since House edge exist, people only use it because they think they can succeed.

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July 06, 2014, 11:44:23 PM
 #189

So how much can you make using martingale? It seems very little then.
Very very little. The amount you make is very small relative to the amount you can lose. In exchange, the probability that you will lose is very, very low.

It's like a lottery in reverse. With a lottery, the amount you lose is very, very small and the amount you can win is very, very large. But in exchange, the chance that you will win is very small. With a progressive betting system, the amount you win is very, very small. And the amount you can lose is very, very large. But in exchange, the chance that you will win is very high.

And with both, because the house has an edge, the house's expected profit will always be positive and the player's expected gain will always be negative.

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July 06, 2014, 11:56:55 PM
 #190

I have used the 999dice autobot - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=563437.0 which uses the Martingale system.

It started very well and I was up 40mBTC however a 20 round losing streak wiped me out.

That taught me a valuable lesson and I haven't used it since.

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July 07, 2014, 12:30:14 AM
 #191

So how much can you make using martingale? It seems very little then.
I have tried a few runs with one satoshi as base. At lucky times, I made 200% the amount in one day while I have lost 0.001 within seconds on many other days. Your expected profit is and will be negative since House edge exist, people only use it because they think they can succeed.
Do you have any screen shots of you doing this? I think that it is very far fetched that you could have tippled your money using the martingale system.
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July 07, 2014, 02:01:59 AM
 #192

So how much can you make using martingale? It seems very little then.
I have tried a few runs with one satoshi as base. At lucky times, I made 200% the amount in one day while I have lost 0.001 within seconds on many other days. Your expected profit is and will be negative since House edge exist, people only use it because they think they can succeed.
Do you have any screen shots of you doing this? I think that it is very far fetched that you could have tippled your money using the martingale system.
Unfortunately, no. It was pretty long time ago. Impossible to even profit from this in a long run. In many occasions, I have got a 18 lose streak. It was probably just my luck.

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July 07, 2014, 02:35:40 AM
 #193

So how much can you make using martingale? It seems very little then.

It depends on your luck, like in all gambling. But it is better to do a x2 bet than making hundreds or thousands of bets with martingale. Smiley

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July 07, 2014, 03:01:36 AM
 #194

So how much can you make using martingale? It seems very little then.
I have tried a few runs with one satoshi as base. At lucky times, I made 200% the amount in one day while I have lost 0.001 within seconds on many other days. Your expected profit is and will be negative since House edge exist, people only use it because they think they can succeed.
Do you have any screen shots of you doing this? I think that it is very far fetched that you could have tippled your money using the martingale system.
Unfortunately, no. It was pretty long time ago. Impossible to even profit from this in a long run. In many occasions, I have got a 18 lose streak. It was probably just my luck.
I call BS on this as 200% profit means that you have thousands of wins prior to losing 18 in a row. Your odds of that happening are just not there

This spot for rent.
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July 07, 2014, 03:04:57 AM
 #195

So how much can you make using martingale? It seems very little then.
I have tried a few runs with one satoshi as base. At lucky times, I made 200% the amount in one day while I have lost 0.001 within seconds on many other days. Your expected profit is and will be negative since House edge exist, people only use it because they think they can succeed.
Do you have any screen shots of you doing this? I think that it is very far fetched that you could have tippled your money using the martingale system.
Unfortunately, no. It was pretty long time ago. Impossible to even profit from this in a long run. In many occasions, I have got a 18 lose streak. It was probably just my luck.
I call BS on this as 200% profit means that you have thousands of wins prior to losing 18 in a row. Your odds of that happening are just not there
Its up to you to believe it or not, I left it there for a few days, from 0.001 to 0.002.

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July 07, 2014, 05:42:58 AM
 #196

It works for a brief amount of time until it bursts in a glorious flame. If you do it, double up and run. I have always managed to double and even triple up on it. Never turned a profit though because eventually, you will go bust.

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July 07, 2014, 06:36:28 AM
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So how much can you make using martingale? It seems very little then.
I have tried a few runs with one satoshi as base. At lucky times, I made 200% the amount in one day while I have lost 0.001 within seconds on many other days. Your expected profit is and will be negative since House edge exist, people only use it because they think they can succeed.
Do you have any screen shots of you doing this? I think that it is very far fetched that you could have tippled your money using the martingale system.
Unfortunately, no. It was pretty long time ago. Impossible to even profit from this in a long run. In many occasions, I have got a 18 lose streak. It was probably just my luck.
I call BS on this as 200% profit means that you have thousands of wins prior to losing 18 in a row. Your odds of that happening are just not there
Its up to you to believe it or not, I left it there for a few days, from 0.001 to 0.002.
Mathematically, it simply doesn't work. You are more likely to lose all you have through a bad streak than you are of reaching 200% profit. The exact calculation can be found lying around on the web.
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July 07, 2014, 07:16:02 AM
 #198

So how much can you make using martingale? It seems very little then.
I have tried a few runs with one satoshi as base. At lucky times, I made 200% the amount in one day while I have lost 0.001 within seconds on many other days. Your expected profit is and will be negative since House edge exist, people only use it because they think they can succeed.
Do you have any screen shots of you doing this? I think that it is very far fetched that you could have tippled your money using the martingale system.
Unfortunately, no. It was pretty long time ago. Impossible to even profit from this in a long run. In many occasions, I have got a 18 lose streak. It was probably just my luck.
I call BS on this as 200% profit means that you have thousands of wins prior to losing 18 in a row. Your odds of that happening are just not there
Its up to you to believe it or not, I left it there for a few days, from 0.001 to 0.002.
Mathematically, it simply doesn't work. You are more likely to lose all you have through a bad streak than you are of reaching 200% profit. The exact calculation can be found lying around on the web.

First, he said "from 0.001 to 0.002", which is 100% profit only.
True that it is more likely to lose the whole balance, but the chance to get 100% profit isn't that low statistically speaking.

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July 07, 2014, 10:18:48 AM
 #199

Getting 200% profit means simply going to from 0.001 to 0.003.  If you bet 0.001, won, and then bet another 0.001 and won - you would be at the same place.  You have a slightly less than 1/4 chance using conventional betting assuming a near 50/50 odds.
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July 07, 2014, 10:28:28 AM
 #200

So how much can you make using martingale? It seems very little then.
I have tried a few runs with one satoshi as base. At lucky times, I made 200% the amount in one day while I have lost 0.001 within seconds on many other days. Your expected profit is and will be negative since House edge exist, people only use it because they think they can succeed.
Do you have any screen shots of you doing this? I think that it is very far fetched that you could have tippled your money using the martingale system.
Unfortunately, no. It was pretty long time ago. Impossible to even profit from this in a long run. In many occasions, I have got a 18 lose streak. It was probably just my luck.
I call BS on this as 200% profit means that you have thousands of wins prior to losing 18 in a row. Your odds of that happening are just not there
Its up to you to believe it or not, I left it there for a few days, from 0.001 to 0.002.
Mathematically, it simply doesn't work. You are more likely to lose all you have through a bad streak than you are of reaching 200% profit. The exact calculation can be found lying around on the web.

First, he said "from 0.001 to 0.002", which is 100% profit only.
True that it is more likely to lose the whole balance, but the chance to get 100% profit isn't that low statistically speaking.

Oops, sorry I meant 100% profit per day. Well, I ran it for a few days, 10 hours per day and didn't bust. Mathematically speaking, it isn't possible, but there is a small chance it can happen. Which is true. I rarely have that streak again. There are more lose streaks than win streak. It was a long time ago anyway. My bot is pretty fast, average 6 bets per second.

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