Bitcoin Forum

Here is my Bitcoin price prediction on a drawn graph.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/aA0zaAFD/ (https://www.tradingview.com/v/aA0zaAFD/)

I use a logarithmic scale.

There is a pattern of about 7.3 to 7.8 months between each bitcoin price spike top.

The bull run should begin any day now. The price should be moving up steadily in 2 weeks.

To be conservative, I would say the price of a single bitcoin will reach over $4,000 but per this graph it should actually reach $6,500. It's just hard to imagine!

$4,000 - $6,500 bitcoin by September 2014.

nice chart, but this prediction assumes that everything will repeat itself exactly, which is unlikely. i agree, however, that next "bubble" would be at least $6000, but could be as high as 60000 (if 2011 pattern will repeat itself). The timing of such 'bubble", however, is completely unknowable.

I think the next bubble will be utterly utterly insane.. with an equal crash(it will stay + 3k or 10k depending on the top).  IMO stock market crash... soonish not soon.

I try to believe this, but I don't see where the money would come from even within the next 2 YEARS. The difficulty of adding another 90 billion to the market cap is a VERY large jump IMHO.

I don't see it happening. Where is all this money going to come from? ???

From investor's bank accounts

Not just bank accounts. It can also comes from the sale of gold and stocks. A 100x rise in the BTC/USD rate could really shake up the gold market since the bitcoin market would then represent 10% of the gold market.

Edit: Bitcoin is a direct competitor to gold when it comes to "Austrian" / "Hard Currency" assets.  

There is no need for an inflationary collapse of USD in order for BTC to rise in purchasing power by 100x or even 1000x. This scenario could also prove very bearish for gold. The Keynesians get watch on the sidelines, loosing 1%-2% a year, while a massive transfer of Austrian wealth from gold to bitcoin takes place.

There is no need to hyperinflation in order for the stock market to collapse. We can have a deflationary downturn / depression as occurred in the 1930s. One thing to keep in mind is growth in excess bank reserves in the US. This means the multiplier effect of fractional reserve banking in not taking place. Bitcoin can do extremely well in such a scenario because it is still in the ramp up stage; however gold would get slaughtered. USD may ironically rise with respect most assets with exception of Bitcoin and some of the "senior" alt currencies.

I wonder when Sony will allow to pay with bitcoins on the Playstation store. Just read comments on an forum that the payment with paypal or credit card is not working at the moment. Buying games from the us store and live in europe.

And it must also become very easy to buy bitcoins. As easy as going to an atm and pay out cash. Or even easier. I think then we can talk about 10k bitcoins :)

You do know what those excess reserves mean right? If they pull them out and start lending, which is ironically what is likely to happen if interest rates go UP without the bribe rate (the interest rate on excess reserves) going up, an extra $26 Trillion can work its way into the M2. That would constitute an increase greater than 200%. Thats one really wound up spring ready to snap back.

In order for that not to happen, they have to do two things. Suppress the earnings of financial institutions so owner's equity doesn't creep into those reserves, and keep the bribe rates at least as they are right now proportional to mortgage and other forms of lending that "leads into the economy."

In order to have a loan one needs both a willing lender and a willing borrower. If there is no willing borrower there is no loan no matter how willing the lender is.

I wonder what will happen when certain people cash out their Bitcoins at whatever price back into their bank accounts via Coinbase? Like, when a coin is worth $3500 for example and someone cashes out 10 and $35k comes into their account out of nowhere. Does Coinbase have something worked out w/ banks that won't make them put a hold on an account when such lump sums come flying in? Not a matter of if but when this type of thing happens.

They'll just lower limits.

Coinbase is the most regulated and most scammy exchange ever. Honestly i've lost 0 BTC through gox and at LEAST 5 through coinbase.

I don't think hyperinflation will occur in US. British decline is gradual and austerity measure did kick in after people realize the insanity can not continue.

Now that's a comparison you just don't want to make.

Coinbase may have their issues but they're not scammers like Karpeles.

Are you talking about the excess reserves that banks hold at the US Fed or something else?  The latest data puts those reserves at around $2.6T, not $26T.  That's still a lot, obviously, but only about 20% of M2 instead of 200%. ;)

See the Federal Reserve site for the latest data: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/current/

IMO, the biggest upcoming investment opportunity (and thus opportunity for a price increase) is a bitcoin ETF.  If the Winklevoss Twins can get theirs listed in the next few months, that would have the potential to bring in many more millions of investment dollars.  If that touched off a rally, all the ATMs that have come online in the last several months could add a lot of fuel to that fire.

We will see it soon, i hope you right but i really doubt it.

2.6T USD of excess reserves can generate an increase of 26T USD in M2 because the reserve requirement is at most 10%. http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm (http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm). For each dollar the Federal Reserve prints the banks can print an additional nine dollars because of fractional reserve banking.

Let's just watch and see. It will be a game. And cut me some slack if I'm off by a month. But it will happen! I'm hoping my timing is correct too.

We will begin to see the bull run begin very shortly.

This is technically true, however in order for this to materialize there needs to be demand for such loans, which there is not.

I'm curious why you would think my bank would put a hold on my account for a deposit such as 35k? I've had deposits in the form of ACH from real estate sales come in at over 50k and my bank didn't even blink, just business as usual. Maybe because coinbase is a bitcoin business then banks will be under pressure with the governments suspicion (paranoia) of bitcoin and money laundering?

Now if the bank has to report these large transactions to the IRS (for those in the US) then we'd be subject to whatever capital gains rules are in place at that time regarding bitcoin. With capital gains repurcutions, in this scenario I might look for a way sell btc without sending funds to my bank. Need to find a cretic tax accountant soon...

Precisely. Which is why we have not seen the hyper inflation in the US that many have predicted.
Edit: This leads to my original point. Without an inflationary collapse of USD to save gold and other PMs, bitcoin could easily devastate the gold and other PM markets.

The only way i see this OP prediction coming to pass is if some major run is made on USD by China and/or Russia.  But it seems the chinese at least are more interested in just increasing their store of gold at this point.

Bitcoin could compete with other precious metals, but would not necessarily devastate them. Bitcoin like other PMs have their own uses which partially backs their value.

So July's mega-rally has been delayed to August-September or even October oh sweet November?

I wouldn't be surprised if it's delayed once again till next year. A lot of fresh fiat would have to enter the market in order for btc to reach $5k, and there doesn't seem to be any significant event in the horizon that would point to such a buying frenzy.

GABI hedgefund being released doesn't point to an influx of money?

No event on the horizon. Lol. Ok.

I think there are a lot of events on the horizon that are going to be very realistic reasons for the bitcoin price to explode again. Namely ETF's. There are several in the works. It won't be long. A month is like 5 years of progress in the bitcoin world.

Still waiting for it, hopefully it turns out to be true :)

Yeah these ETF's with all the legal certifications may be the only thing holding back "wall street" money from coming in.  We'll see very very soon!

Time will pass, August will come and go, September will come and go and the price won't even be 1000 again.

10% reserve.... I thought it was down to 1.5/2%....

Absolutely no chance
Pass the weed you are smoking please ;)

It won't need much to move the market.

We do not need $80b to reach an $80b market cap just as we can crash the market price now with only a few thousand bitcoins.

The money will simply come from new comers and the same people who sold.

Isn't there a block halving scheduled for next spring?

That should be helpful.

Last time I checked, the block propagation rate (averaging a block for every 8ish minutes) coincides with the next block halving being sometime at the end of 2015 which is a while from now.

bitcoinclock.com has it as: Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-08-11.  Is that accurate?

The fact us NOBODY KNOWS THE FUTURE PRICE.

Too much hard that price will reach 4000$ by August/September. You saying that market cap will increase by 10x from the actual, namely from 8 billion to 80 billion..

While I don't believe the price can go so high, I know that it wouldn't take 72 billion to go there. If we would get 20-30 million on each exchange today, price would go up like hell.

That is because the term "market cap" is pretty useless when applied to Bitcoin. That is in no way reflective of how many coins are for sale.

There has been analysis done twice on this site.  The answers were 15 and 60 multipliers, IIRC (I can't find the posts).  I.e., if  $1M is added to the market, the valuation of btc as a whole rises between $15M and $60M.

To put the market at a $80B valuation would require an additional $1.2-5B to be invested in btc, assuming their analysis was correct.  Definitely possible.

Thanks for posting that.

I wasn't sure if he was asking for the current rate or the exponential rate. I was recalling the calculation that was done for a rate of exponential increase over the next year (that assumed 20nm/18nm ASIC geometric technologies being taped out). I remember it concluding that if rate increase was something like e^.08t it would coincide with the end of 2015/early 2016.

Yeah, it was originally supposed to be Jan 2017, so we've come a long way.

Every now and then there is a price jumping.

Its same with BTC on 7-9 month base price jump then stabilize on certain % of former price. This happen before and it will happen again. Will it be in avg/sep that is another question but it will happen more like to be around okt/nov, my personal prediction on this.

For price reasonable is to be around 2-2.5K in USD again that is my opinion.

People on another tread votes mostly for august this year?

Is it gonna be this year or next?

But predictions are always possible, even with the fact that it may become less popular etc, it can all be calculated. But its just too random, so there are lots of scenarios.

Price will be 3-700 until mid/late 2015 where it will skyrocket to 50k.

This is my prediction, HODL.

No way it's not going above 700 for such a long time.
One of the ETFs will open for sure before long, and then the bubble will follow.

I agree.  I think ETFs have huge potential for increasing the price (although note that I say "potential").  But if everyone thinks that will be the case (I've seen others voice the same opinion), will the rally happen when an ETF launch is announced?  Or when the ETF actually launches?  Or both?

There is a chance for $1k in 2014, but no higher this year.

GOBI opens August 1.  We'll see what effect (if any) that has on the price.

What's GOBI? I only know Gobi Desert.

How do you figure that $1k could happen but no higher?  $700 is setting up to be huge resistance, and it seems like a lot of pressure is building below that level.  If we don't break it, then we'll probably eventually drop a ways.  But if we do, I think the potential exists for a very quick run-up that could easily test the all-time highs. 

I am not so sure about a quick run-up to test the all-time high, the ATH will be tested, yeah, but I believe a gradual price rise to that level will be taking place. Because there will be many sellers all the way to ATH, it can't happen quickly. Miners have invested a lot in hardware in 2014 and they will be selling many bitcoins to get a ROI - this won't be easy with difficulty rising so much => new daily supply of 3600 Bitcoins has to be absorbed by the market, earlier hodlers will be selling to take profits. There is no fake Mt.Gox bot trading any more to keep the price artificially higher, there is no China (at least no easy way for the Chinese to participate).

All in all, I think the bulls will be moderately victorious over the next 12 months and will take the price to $1k but no higher, selling pressure will be huge too, all these large and small merchants (Overstock, Newegg, Tigedirect, etc) add to the selling pressure, because they sell 90% of Bitcoins for cash (which is equivalent to hodlers selling Bitcoins) and mainstream adoption is not happening on such a large scale as we would like to dream (common folks are still not quite sure why they need Bitcoin and many of them can't handle it securely losing to hackers, etc).

Impossible to look into longer than 12 months from now.

Markets put 700 as first obstacle then is 1k, after those 2 barriers are broken then who hows now much will bitcoin worth, maybe it will crash maybe will go to 4-6k.

Like in red alert 2 "Time will tell"

Saying the market will only go up to $1000 in 2014 or the next 12 months is nonsensical in my opinion.

If we get into a real bull market $1000 could go down very fast.

A year ago we were around $100-$120 and people thought retesting or surpassing $266 in the near future was a pipe dream.

I don't know if we will get to $700 or $800 in 2014. But if we do, then $1000 is not going to hold back a market that literally has a lack of sellers. The only reason we aren't going up right now is a lack of exchange buyers. And we have no idea and no data on what's happening transaction wise off exchange. For all we no, the reason there are no exchange sellers might be that all the large miners are selling off exchange.

Sooner or later demand is going to pick up and once it does, without sellers to match it (much more than we have had for months) then the price will have no where to go but up.

$600->$1000 would perfectly fit the definition of a bull market. Bull market doesn't mean the price goes 5x-10x every time :) If it was that easy, everyone would be millionaires.

When it's an established commodity/stock, when its market cap is large enough, it takes much more capital than before to move the market, hence the gains of the previous bull markets can hardly be compared.

SMH. You are comparing a 8 billion market cap to a commodity?

What you are saying would be true at a 200 billion market cap. Not at 8.

And everyone will be millionaires if Bitcoin is even mildly disruptive worldwide. Everyone with at least 25 btc.

We'll find out soon enough if there is enough demand to take Bitcoin to the price of your dream. I don't see this kind of demand happening yet, not in the next 12 months.

200 billion in 12 months? Neither do I. 5-10 years? Yes, I do. But keep in mind thats a 25x growth from todays price point. So thats several 5x(ish) spikes with reversals in between.

I am confused, where do we disagree?
I say in the next 12 months no new ATH is possible, that is, the old ATH at around $1000-1200 will not be violated.
What's your take?

If I were to bet, I'd say we'd see $1000 by the end of the year. I think we could see $2500+ with next 12 months. I'd have to go back and check, but I calculated the size of the last next bubble relative to the descending sizes of the previous ones. I think my estimates were between $2400-3300 as a target range for the next bubble high.

I wouldn't bet against seeing $1000 by the end of the year, it's possible, but this doesn't exclude not reaching a new ATH in the next 12 months. Basically, I see the price swinging between $500 and previous ATH ($1000-$1200) for the next 12 months.

Ok, I see now where we differ.

I know there are lots of people trying to pay off their miners, which, I'm guessing, is one of the big reasons we haven't been able to break through 700.  But if we could smash through 700 (if we do break 700, I doubt it will be slowly), a lot of miners may start to put off selling their coins, hoping for higher prices.  If the sells dry up, it could move very fast, like it did in the latter half of May when it went from 450 to 685 in only two-ish weeks.  It might pause or stop at 800, but after that, 1k looks to be the next major resistance level.

Edit: And if there's enough momentum when running into 1k, it may break that quickly, too.  I think a lot of people are expecting ATHs in the next few months.  If enough people believe it will happen, it will.

Why not get through $1000 first? There's still quite a bit of naysayers realists other people who think we can't even get past $1000 this year...

https://www.betmoose.com/uploads/img/209.jpg (https://www.betmoose.com/bet/bitcoin-will-pass-1000-by-the-end-of-this-year-247)___________

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There is no easy money in the world.

I would love it for this to happen but I see this year as a repeat of 2012...let's blowoff some steam, consolidate, and 2015 will be the next rally.

Seems nuts to me, but bring it  8)

Why every1 thinks there is no easy money. Nothing is easy.
Sometimes even getting up from bed is hard, money to earn everywhere is hard, easy is to spend it.

Yup.  I would like an entire year of relative calmness first.

Given how slow things have been lately, I could see it going this way.  I think it mostly depends on when the next big investor opportunity occurs, whether it be an ETF launching or a large market opening up (Russia?).

Doubt we will see any calmness here, since there are allways both some real news, and like allways FUD.
I have a feeling we are manipulated by large scale traders, and the only time to realy "blowoff", will be when something major happens.

U think it will be in Russia?

Man i think more like on some country that we least expect.

Maybe some south american country or some other europe country, for price more likely end of year or first quarter of next.

Russia is not going to invest in bitoin in mass as Putin wants to keep the Russian economy under his tight control.

I only see a country like Iceland getting away with it, I just hope they don't dump as it happened with AUR, but of course that was basically free money, and when in need people will want the quick benefits.

Totally blew my mind that Russia did a 120 degrees turn and is now watching bitcoin. I believe they realized the potential and don't want to be left out. They also like a good space program after all!

Russia was in the game from start but silently now they want to be involved big so that they can be major players, my opinion on this.

So Russia can be the new China, let's hope so. The same could be said for dozens of nations in which adoption isn't started.
The $4000-$6500 prediction will be true, but not in the near future.

Not necessarily.  I was just looking for an example of a market opening up and Russia came to mind as there was some positive news about it a week or two ago.  I'm not sure if there would be enough demand from them anyway.  What's the status of bitcoin in India?  I haven't heard much about them.

Iceland total population is 320,137 as of this writing. wouldn't make much difference.

If all out, international-involvement-type  war breaks concerning the Ukraine situation, it would most likely affect bitcoin adoption/price, but Putin seems to be making some efforts to avoid escalation.

mostly I expect bitcoin to move sideways for some time, unless, India dives in big time. That doesn't seem to be happening yet, either.

I would like to see this price range,really, but I think it won´t happen so soon as you predict...more years to come if this happen.

August is over we will see at end of next month.

Still about 35 days but hard to happen any time soon.

The prediction wasn't right, september is too close to reach $4000.
Probably we won't see these prices until 2015, but nobody can know this for sure.

This is very true.
Bitcoin entered widespread investor awareness at the end of 2013, with the big price spike.
Now it is fairly widely known, with actors and the like saying they will invest in it, during 2014.

Therefore, it's too late for this to be a simple vehicle for a person with say, $20,000 to invest (c.40BTC) to become a millionaire.
Life is not that easy.
People turn 20k into 1000k when they spot something that very few other people have. BTC has already passed that stage.

The only way this sort of thing will happen is if something completely unexpected occurs, which forces the world to adopt BTC to a far greater extent than people think currently.
So we need to have a 'hyper-inflation' or similar scenario, to go to the moon, imo.

Please define 'few' :)

No. It could happen by May 2015, no sooner, that's very optimistic though. Or by November 2015 - this is more realistic.

It could easily happen before the end of the year. But I'm not holding my breath for this.

July and August are, notoriously, weak time periods, and market are thinly traded.
If volume raise, we will see a lot more action is a very short time frame. Because it will raise mainly in the buy side of the market.

The effect of the past halving is spent and a new stable level is reached.
But the effects of users and merchants adoption continue as continue the Fed. Reserve policy of QE (like nearly all Central banks in the world).

We could see a series of smaller spikes followed by a series of a lot smaller corrections than in the past, leading to a continuous "slow" growth. Slow could be a 10x/Year instead of a 100x/year.

We'll see 1k this year granted.

I´d love to! But...

Who grants this? You?

Nothing is granted in Crypto...yet.

Very little chance for a new all-time high this year, imo.

No signs of large amounts of fresh fiat streaming in, enough to counter the selling pressure by miners and BTC payment providers (there is a constant trickle of new fiat of course, just not enough to create another price growth spurt), and even the launch of a Bitcoin ETF near the end of 2014 isn't a guarantee that we'll see greatly increased buying pressure immediately - the market conditions need to be right, otherwise the ETF will simply represent a fiat gate that isn't used at full capacity (like the ATMs, for example).

All of the above doesn't really worry me, though. I weened myself of the naive idea of a simple exponential trend extrapolation (whether it's a hand drawn line, or a regression based trendline), and consider predictions based on such naive trendlines mostly useless. Doesn't mean I don't believe in the potential of Bitcoin, just that I sneer at the idea future "bubbles" arrive with the regularity of a Swiss train service.

Maybe just maybe can go back to 1000 but i think i will be for next year to come in high for some big price change.

Im new on this so i hope for price to jump.

I will be very happy then  ;D

I'm laughing at this thread.

It just goes to show that drawing lines on a graph doesn't predict the future. Who would have guessed?

Bitcoin is so 2009-2013, era of Bitcoin is over - smart Bitcoiners are running into crypto 2.0. Heck, even Dogecoin is bound to give more returns.

OP had an extra 0 tagged to that estimated value.

So the prediction was wrong, nothing bad in this, there are tons of them popping out everyday.

Y, no one knows where the price are going to go.

And no one can predict the price  ;)

No one?
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-0Pr53CTG6Mw/U2pmdD2JPjI/AAAAAAAAACw/Z-hwleGaWEk/s1600/killer-whale.jpg

Another bull proven to be dead wrong. Bears predicting collapse to 0 were closer (missed only by 470), than bulls estimating four digits.

Maybe the prediction will come true the next year...

What? Bitcoin hitting $0 essentially means there is absolutely NO demand for bitcoin and it has failed. $470 means there is still demand (bitcoin is worth quite a bit more than the USD). In that light $470 is closer to $6000 (an incoming rise that I also agree with, but maybe around the $3000 level IMO) which signifies demand rather than NO demand.

you never know it can still rise and rise

This year wont be 4 digits year maybe next

Smart? No.
Ignorant and stupid? Yes.
Exactly how many merchants accept a crypto that is "2.0"? 0.

Well this was all speculation so the prediction didn't surprise me.

There are some good news coming which could give bitcoin a great boost in price.

Oh well, 0 must not mean the same in my language.

https://www.coinpayments.net/


They accept Nxt -> Thus, it is not 0.

Coin acceptance is BTC, BTC is king when it comes to addoption, it's only mega nerds that are into the crypto world and coin holder themselves that are accepting other coins that aren't BTC. Merchants accepting cryptos that arent BTC are a big minority. Market acceptance is Everything.

Btc is prime and it will always be, but more and more sites accept other coins in hope in my opinion is to make extra profit.
Think that they want to make profit in price change when btc goes up then they have more in btc, but this can be in mater of time for year to w8.

And Nxt is less than one year old.
Compare what is comparable. Not trying to compare which one is the best, since i think BTC will always have a place, like Gold. Nxt has a different purpose.

Bitcoin was the first of the crypto currencies, no one will take its place.

I am amazed, never found so much psychics people that predict the future in a single place.
Please stop being delusional, no one knows what will happen.

What about Netscape, Myspace...

This forum changed, it is sad.

Anybody have a good prediction now?

i think this will only happen in your wet dreams...

I don't think anyone can be certain what will happen. Flipping a coin's probably more reliable than most of the predictions here.

$300 before Christmas.

Is bitcoin prices gunna continue dropping or what?

Haha these people  :D

I think we're pretty close to the point of maximum despair now.

OP was embarrassingly wrong. This is why it is not a good idea to use logarithmic scale.

Only bull scammers and wishful thinkers use them.

No, that's why you don't make predictions as precise as his.

correct. the btc market is too young & too small (or easy to manipulate) to predict at all.  the past year has proven that rises and falls in price will be quick (sometimes just a few hours) and come when you least expect it.  the only way to time them is get lucky, or have some insider whale knowledge.

confirmed  ;D

August and September past so no change in price except that is going down.
Only we may hit 500 in november if it be like last year.

Man price was more then 1000$ last year in November.

 :'(

To bad i wasn't involved back then in btc.

I seen this to they predict in past several months that btc will jump more then 2k 4k 10k.
But nothing happen so only thing that is sure is that there no correct prediction.

No one can predict correct price for next day or month.

http://file:///C:/Users/IMMERSE/Pictures/Untitledgraph.png

I know what happened, the graph got flipped upside down somehow. Here is the true graph -sorry folks!

At least the OP admits he got it wrong.

He wrong only by a factor of 10.

Considering that it is logarithmic scale, the error is not so big