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Title: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: nuff on September 02, 2014, 06:14:46 PM Actual production cost of one single bicoin is aroundt $530-$550. Any price below $500 is a steal. Buy now or regret years later. With difficulty ever increasing miners are getting screwed now cause anyone mining now is running at a loss.
Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: JerryCurlzzz on September 02, 2014, 06:18:10 PM Actual production cost of one single bicoin is aroundt $530-$550. Any price below $500 is a steal. Buy now or regret years later. With difficulty ever increasing miners are getting screwed now cause anyone mining now is running at a loss. What if they just end up running at a loss for some time..... and price doesn't recover? Then hash rate drops.... despair sets in.... just saying. Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: dropt on September 02, 2014, 06:20:55 PM When calculated in the OP over the time period from March 14, 2013 to March 13, 2014 the average increase in the difficulty and hash rate was 23.92% per adjustment period and the average length of each adjustment period was 11.38 days. Recalculated over the period June 29, 2013 to June 29, 2014 it was 23.45% and 11.41 days. Now, recalculating over the period August 24, 2013 to August 31, 2014 it is 21.12% and 11.63 days. Assuming the network growth rate over the next year is the same as it was this last year we get: Code: Hash Rate Power Energy Cost Cost In other words something has got to give by the end of the year, or actually before December 1 Ignoring the cost of HW: the current cost to mine a coin is ~$131. Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: NapoleonBonaparte on September 02, 2014, 06:27:45 PM When calculated in the OP over the time period from March 14, 2013 to March 13, 2014 the average increase in the difficulty and hash rate was 23.92% per adjustment period and the average length of each adjustment period was 11.38 days. Recalculated over the period June 29, 2013 to June 29, 2014 it was 23.45% and 11.41 days. Now, recalculating over the period August 24, 2013 to August 31, 2014 it is 21.12% and 11.63 days. Assuming the network growth rate over the next year is the same as it was this last year we get: Code: Hash Rate Power Energy Cost Cost In other words something has got to give by the end of the year, or actually before December 1 Ignoring the cost of HW: the current cost to mine a coin is ~$131. You need to factor in the cost of HW as it will be useless after 4 months. A more reasonable estimate on production cost per btc is 600. Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: dropt on September 02, 2014, 06:30:58 PM You need to factor in the cost of HW as it will be useless after 4 months. A more reasonable estimate on production cost per btc is 600. Not necessarily. Do you think that the large farms of Bitfury haven't already recovered their initial HW costs? How about KnC? Or maybe Bitmain? Further, to derive that $600 figure do you know what the cost per GH is for these large corporate farms? If you do, could you post the citation for said figures? Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: Wexlike on September 02, 2014, 06:31:13 PM Actual production cost of one single bicoin is aroundt $530-$550. Any price below $500 is a steal. Buy now or regret years later. With difficulty ever increasing miners are getting screwed now cause anyone mining now is running at a loss. How do you come up with these numbers ? If i assume that an industrial mining operator with access to really cheap electricity(0.05c/kw) has a current miner running, it is still profitable even with a bitcoin price of 55$. You can check my math: Antminer s3 440gh equals 0.008068 btc per day. The price of the units electricity for a whole day is 0.44 cent. (0.366 kw per hour) 0.008068 * 55$ - electricity = 0.443 - 0.439 Of course this is an extreme example, there are more expanses. For example the price of the miner. But if you already have a miner, that means that you paid for it in advance. You would let it run until btc goes below 55$. (insane thought lol) Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: An amorous cow-herder on September 02, 2014, 06:57:36 PM Actual production cost of one single bicoin is aroundt $530-$550. Any price below $500 is a steal. Buy now or regret years later. With difficulty ever increasing miners are getting screwed now cause anyone mining now is running at a loss. I think your logic is the wrong way round.If something costs more to produce than its worth doesnt mean its a good idea to buy the product, just thats it a bad idea to produce it. Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: JerryCurlzzz on September 02, 2014, 06:59:00 PM Actual production cost of one single bicoin is aroundt $530-$550. Any price below $500 is a steal. Buy now or regret years later. With difficulty ever increasing miners are getting screwed now cause anyone mining now is running at a loss. I think your logic is the wrong way round.If something costs more to produce than its worth doesnt mean its a good idea to buy the product, just thats it a bad idea to produce it. Bingo. All the perma bulls saying that mining cost will drive exchange rate upwards aren't really using sound logic. Surely, miners could simply be making a horrible investment (if currently mining at a loss). Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: razorramon on September 02, 2014, 07:03:52 PM actually if you buy hardware (or most things business related)
you pay now and the price is paid off through the time you use it lets say: item: 1000$ use of item: 10 months -> costs per month 100$ of course how your "expenses" are calculated depends on what kind of expense it is...the calculation above also says that after 10 months the item is worthless...but if you can resell it for 200$ then it would be: 1000$ - 200$ = 800$ Costs per month 80$ Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: danynx on September 02, 2014, 07:05:00 PM yeah.. any amount below 500 are mere cheap coins ;)
Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: jbrnt on September 02, 2014, 07:10:25 PM $500 is cheap if it reaches $700 by the end of the year, $500 is expensive if it drops below $400. It just depends on your own view on bitcoin prices. I personally think $500 is cheap, but it is because I bought some at $600. :D
Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: danynx on September 02, 2014, 07:14:22 PM $500 is cheap if it reaches $700 by the end of the year, $500 is expensive if it drops below $400. It just depends on your own view on bitcoin prices. I personally think $500 is cheap, but it is because I bought some at $600. :D 400 have been seen to be a very strong resistant point, so i doubt it will fall below that. Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: JerryCurlzzz on September 02, 2014, 07:17:06 PM $500 is cheap if it reaches $700 by the end of the year, $500 is expensive if it drops below $400. It just depends on your own view on bitcoin prices. I personally think $500 is cheap, but it is because I bought some at $600. :D 400 have been seen to be a very strong resistant point, so i doubt it will fall below that. Well, we did see the $340 level on the last major spike down. So I would not say that sub-$400 is off the table. Seems some respected analysts here are calling for a revisit to the mid-300s. Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: JimboToronto on September 02, 2014, 07:20:46 PM Seems some respected analysts here are calling for a revisit to the mid-300s. Respected by whom? :D Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: JerryCurlzzz on September 02, 2014, 07:29:32 PM Seems some respected analysts here are calling for a revisit to the mid-300s. Respected by whom? :D You may disagree, but I'd say that masterluc and RyNinDaCleM both command some respect on this forum. Most analysts here are pretty half-assed, but not them. Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: bonipper on September 02, 2014, 07:58:23 PM Actual production cost of one single bicoin is aroundt $530-$550. In 2011 bitcoins cost more to produce than you could sell them for. http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2011/oct/18/bitcoin-value-crash-cryptocurrency Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: truehold3r on September 02, 2014, 07:59:29 PM I've already bought as many sub $500 coins as I can so I'm ready for the next jump.
Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: razorramon on September 02, 2014, 08:28:53 PM Actual production cost of one single bicoin is aroundt $530-$550. In 2011 bitcoins cost more to produce than you could sell them for. http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2011/oct/18/bitcoin-value-crash-cryptocurrency but back then no one was mining bitcoins with special hardware...you had the mining program "running on the side"...that's also the reason why there are so many lost bitcoins....a lot of people tried it out and deleted it because it was not worth it (me included in 2010 or so) Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: hodap on September 02, 2014, 08:30:51 PM I've already bought as many sub $500 coins as I can so I'm ready for the next jump. Strong conviction, but also dangerous position you are taking. Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: minerpumpkin on September 02, 2014, 08:58:34 PM Actual production cost of one single bicoin is aroundt $530-$550. Any price below $500 is a steal. Buy now or regret years later. With difficulty ever increasing miners are getting screwed now cause anyone mining now is running at a loss. It could very well be. If you're not invested now and just getting into Bitcoin, it may be a great price to get your first couple of coins. If you are heavily invested, you should think about hedging a bit - never go full crypto. Investing when we've crossed the $700 mark will be a lot safer, since we'd be in a definite bull-market then! Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: falllling on September 03, 2014, 05:55:24 AM it's not about you, sell or not your choice but bitcoin is going to nowhere but down until the final capitulation, sell now or lose everything
Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: exocytosis on September 03, 2014, 07:37:55 AM Actual production cost of one single bicoin is aroundt $530-$550. Any price below $500 is a steal. Buy now or regret years later. With difficulty ever increasing miners are getting screwed now cause anyone mining now is running at a loss. It seems like the market doesn't agree with you. BTC has been way below 500 for several days now. There's more selling than buying going on. We'll be in the three hundreds a month from now. Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: falllling on September 03, 2014, 07:44:42 AM Actual production cost of one single bicoin is aroundt $530-$550. Any price below $500 is a steal. Buy now or regret years later. With difficulty ever increasing miners are getting screwed now cause anyone mining now is running at a loss. It seems like the market doesn't agree with you. BTC has been way below 500 for several days now. There's more selling than buying going on. We'll be in the three hundreds a month from now. and $200 $100 Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: Asrael999 on September 03, 2014, 08:54:29 AM Actual production cost of one single bicoin is aroundt $530-$550. Any price below $500 is a steal. Buy now or regret years later. With difficulty ever increasing miners are getting screwed now cause anyone mining now is running at a loss. Evidence Please? This might be true of people who have to buy overly expensive miners - this is not true for those who have desigened and built their own chips. Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: mmortal03 on September 03, 2014, 09:10:05 AM There's more selling than buying going on. Not possible. Every seller has a buyer. Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: Newbie1022 on September 03, 2014, 09:11:11 AM There's more selling than buying going on. Not possible. Every seller has a buyer. Or maybe the seller just has somebody who is closing a short to record some initial profit. There's that, too. Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: Timetwister on September 05, 2014, 11:29:24 AM Production costs are irrelevant. http://mises.org/daily/1680 Value is subjective, it's customers who determine the price of goods. Costs depend on how much customers are willing to pay. So if right now it isn't profitable for some people to mine, they will just stop.
Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: InwardContour on September 05, 2014, 12:23:21 PM Buying now is a smart thing to do, bitcoin actually is undervalued and in few months we will see a new big rise.
Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: bitnoteblock on September 05, 2014, 12:55:55 PM Let's hope the vale won't go under $400 or the insanity would be to have bought now.
Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: exocytosis on September 05, 2014, 02:10:56 PM If your claim is true, 99.9999 % of humans are insane, apparently. And that includes most users on these forums as well.
Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: thehappybtc on September 05, 2014, 02:56:02 PM I'm insane because I haven't bought at sub $500, but all in all I'm not too much insane, I have some $650 coins.
Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: cypherdoc on September 05, 2014, 03:04:32 PM it makes sense to buy sub 500 now especially since we're at what i think is the tail end of the longest pullback in Bitcoin's history. sure, it could go lower but the next rally should blow by this point in time. this is how cycles work, peaks and troughs. we're still above April's low with higher lows. bears are getting weaker and the turnover in coins has been immense. those new holders are going to wait for their own special bubble ramp before even considering selling.
Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: exocytosis on September 05, 2014, 03:24:38 PM For the next couple of months, it will be a struggle for BTC to sustain a price above 450.
Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: Rakitich on September 05, 2014, 03:33:46 PM You have to be mentally retarded (as in actual problem with the brain) to not buy sub ATH BTC at any time and cost until next year.
Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: cypherdoc on September 05, 2014, 03:50:09 PM yesterday's pop off up at a slightly higher low since April, then May, then August, is indicative of bulls increasing confidence to step in and buy in an attempt to pick a bottom in this long overstretched down cycle. this will occur with increasing frequency until or unless we crack a new low which is looking increasingly less likely.
Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: falllling on September 05, 2014, 03:55:13 PM yesterday's pop off up at a slightly higher low since April, then May, then August, is indicative of bulls increasing confidence to step in and buy in an attempt to pick a bottom in this long overstretched down cycle. this will occur with increasing frequency until or unless we crack a new low which is looking increasingly less likely. bitcoin is going to nowhere but down! next target $300 Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: MichaelBliss on September 05, 2014, 04:05:30 PM Actual production cost of one single bicoin is aroundt $530-$550. Any price below $500 is a steal. Buy now or regret years later. With difficulty ever increasing miners are getting screwed now cause anyone mining now is running at a loss. Exactly. I don't think the day trading speculators have any clue what the cost of production is (they seem to consider lines on a chart and various other less important factors first). Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: cypherdoc on September 05, 2014, 04:05:48 PM yesterday's pop off up at a slightly higher low since April, then May, then August, is indicative of bulls increasing confidence to step in and buy in an attempt to pick a bottom in this long overstretched down cycle. this will occur with increasing frequency until or unless we crack a new low which is looking increasingly less likely. bitcoin is going to nowhere but down! next target $300 up! Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: asganauei on September 05, 2014, 04:10:36 PM Actual production cost of one single bicoin is aroundt $530-$550. Any price below $500 is a steal. Buy now or regret years later. With difficulty ever increasing miners are getting screwed now cause anyone mining now is running at a loss. Exactly. I don't think the day trading speculators have any clue what the cost of production is (they seem to consider lines on a chart and various other less important factors first). How can the cost of production be calculated, it's a nice indicator to know the mid term value of bitcoins. Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: exocytosis on September 05, 2014, 05:25:05 PM Actual production cost of one single bicoin is aroundt $530-$550. Any price below $500 is a steal. Buy now or regret years later. With difficulty ever increasing miners are getting screwed now cause anyone mining now is running at a loss. Exactly. I don't think the day trading speculators have any clue what the cost of production is (they seem to consider lines on a chart and various other less important factors first). Quote I think your logic is the wrong way round. If something costs more to produce than its worth doesnt mean its a good idea to buy the product, just thats it a bad idea to produce it. Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: culexevilman on September 05, 2014, 05:41:53 PM I would not say its insanity to not buy now around 500, brought some around 400+ and thought it was a good buy...
Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: twiifm on September 05, 2014, 05:43:45 PM Actual production cost of one single bicoin is aroundt $530-$550. Any price below $500 is a steal. Buy now or regret years later. With difficulty ever increasing miners are getting screwed now cause anyone mining now is running at a loss. Exactly. I don't think the day trading speculators have any clue what the cost of production is (they seem to consider lines on a chart and various other less important factors first). Quote I think your logic is the wrong way round. If something costs more to produce than its worth doesnt mean its a good idea to buy the product, just thats it a bad idea to produce it. Most of the people here never had a business so they don't get it The miners are already operating on razor thin margins if COGS is $550 and they are willing to sell for $600. If price drops to $500 then the liability of their inventory will become unbearable at some point. They would be insolvent & have no choice but to stop mining Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: MichaelBliss on September 06, 2014, 04:14:07 AM Actual production cost of one single bicoin is aroundt $530-$550. Any price below $500 is a steal. Buy now or regret years later. With difficulty ever increasing miners are getting screwed now cause anyone mining now is running at a loss. Exactly. I don't think the day trading speculators have any clue what the cost of production is (they seem to consider lines on a chart and various other less important factors first). Quote I think your logic is the wrong way round. If something costs more to produce than its worth doesnt mean its a good idea to buy the product, just thats it a bad idea to produce it. Most of the people here never had a business so they don't get it The miners are already operating on razor thin margins if COGS is $550 and they are willing to sell for $600. If price drops to $500 then the liability of their inventory will become unbearable at some point. They would be insolvent & have no choice but to stop mining Good thing I had several business and aren't one of those "most people" you're referring to. The point was that the "price" being below cost of production makes it a little less likely that miners would sell at these prices. I agree, something has got to give, either the exchange rate or the miners (i.e. network). I'm betting it's the low price that will give, as it has the last 4 times we were in a similar situation. Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: lyth0s on September 06, 2014, 04:19:55 AM Hobby miners with small farms can mine essentially forever at a small loss. Big miners will not be able to mine for long at a cost due to space and electricity cost (assuming they already paid for their hardware and it wasn't on credit). If big miners fail they could sell off all of their reserve coins, tank the price of BTC and in the end all we would have left are the small hobby miners again.
Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: Timetwister on September 06, 2014, 08:11:14 AM Actual production cost of one single bicoin is aroundt $530-$550. Any price below $500 is a steal. Buy now or regret years later. With difficulty ever increasing miners are getting screwed now cause anyone mining now is running at a loss. Exactly. I don't think the day trading speculators have any clue what the cost of production is (they seem to consider lines on a chart and various other less important factors first). How can the cost of production be calculated, it's a nice indicator to know the mid term value of bitcoins. Costs aren't the same for everyone. Electricity costs change from one place to another. The same for labor, land, taxes, etc. Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: JimNastics on September 06, 2014, 11:56:06 AM Seems some respected analysts here are calling for a revisit to the mid-300s. Respected by whom? :D You may disagree, but I'd say that masterluc and RyNinDaCleM both command some respect on this forum. Most analysts here are pretty half-assed, but not them. Add WaveAddict to that list... it's definitely doom and gloom from all the respected analysts. I do think you'd have to be a bit of mug to invest heavily at the moment. Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: ensurance982 on September 06, 2014, 12:13:42 PM Actual production cost of one single bicoin is aroundt $530-$550. Any price below $500 is a steal. Buy now or regret years later. With difficulty ever increasing miners are getting screwed now cause anyone mining now is running at a loss. Could very well be. People were devastated that they bought at $200 during the April 2013 bubble, but they'd still be up 150% today! If we look back at these prices when we're at $3500 or so, we'll regret not having bought more coins. Then again, we may go to $10 again... Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: nuff on September 06, 2014, 01:17:07 PM Actual production cost of one single bicoin is aroundt $530-$550. Any price below $500 is a steal. Buy now or regret years later. With difficulty ever increasing miners are getting screwed now cause anyone mining now is running at a loss. Evidence Please? This might be true of people who have to buy overly expensive miners - this is not true for those who have desigened and built their own chips. Take an antminer s1 running 180 Ghs @ 400w taking 303 days to mine 1 full btc, Price of Antminer S1: $200 Electricity cost : 400w x $0.12 /kW x 24h x 303 days = $349 Total: $549 Note that is still not factoring in the difficulty increase every 2 weeks which actually means it'll actually take more than 303 days to mine 1 single btc. Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: troisky on September 06, 2014, 01:49:54 PM You have to be half autistic to not see the power of BTC in the future, it doesnt matter how low it goes now.
Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: yayayo on September 06, 2014, 03:20:01 PM You have to be half autistic to not see the power of BTC in the future, it doesnt matter how low it goes now. Yes, exactly half autistic. But if you're full autistic, you'll take one look at the hot air ventilated out of your miner and will know the exact price on 24th December 2024 midnight. Personally I'm not sure which ones of the calculations presented are right. However, what I'm sure about is that price will not stay substantially below mining costs forever. I'm also sure that the cost of mining is constantly rising due to difficulty increases. Therefore Bitcoin price will also rise sooner or later. ya.ya.yo! Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: giveBTCpls on September 06, 2014, 07:19:01 PM Hobby miners with small farms can mine essentially forever at a small loss. Big miners will not be able to mine for long at a cost due to space and electricity cost (assuming they already paid for their hardware and it wasn't on credit). If big miners fail they could sell off all of their reserve coins, tank the price of BTC and in the end all we would have left are the small hobby miners again. Well big miners will be lossing on a lot of gains if they dont risk for a while. Nobody said it would be easy. Also if they stop, these smaller miners will get a bigger slice of the pie. Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: yokosan on September 06, 2014, 09:50:47 PM Hobby miners with small farms can mine essentially forever at a small loss. Big miners will not be able to mine for long at a cost due to space and electricity cost (assuming they already paid for their hardware and it wasn't on credit). If big miners fail they could sell off all of their reserve coins, tank the price of BTC and in the end all we would have left are the small hobby miners again. Well big miners will be lossing on a lot of gains if they dont risk for a while. Nobody said it would be easy. Also if they stop, these smaller miners will get a bigger slice of the pie. It's a game of chicken. The miners can't stop mining because if they do the amount miners can make will go up, so they may as well continue mining and hope the price goes up. Think of it as dollar cost averaging on autopilot. The biggest impact will be that they can't continue to invest in new hardware. As the demand for miners goes down the companies selling them will shift to just mining with the hardware that they make. Eventually those companies will not only reach 50% of the network, but in fact dwarf all mining pools combined. It is my prediction that this will occur as soon as 2015. When this happens the future of Bitcoin will be cast in doubt, there will be panic and drama, and hopefully a solution will be found. Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: giveBTCpls on September 06, 2014, 11:44:15 PM Hobby miners with small farms can mine essentially forever at a small loss. Big miners will not be able to mine for long at a cost due to space and electricity cost (assuming they already paid for their hardware and it wasn't on credit). If big miners fail they could sell off all of their reserve coins, tank the price of BTC and in the end all we would have left are the small hobby miners again. Well big miners will be lossing on a lot of gains if they dont risk for a while. Nobody said it would be easy. Also if they stop, these smaller miners will get a bigger slice of the pie. It's a game of chicken. The miners can't stop mining because if they do the amount miners can make will go up, so they may as well continue mining and hope the price goes up. Think of it as dollar cost averaging on autopilot. The biggest impact will be that they can't continue to invest in new hardware. As the demand for miners goes down the companies selling them will shift to just mining with the hardware that they make. Eventually those companies will not only reach 50% of the network, but in fact dwarf all mining pools combined. It is my prediction that this will occur as soon as 2015. When this happens the future of Bitcoin will be cast in doubt, there will be panic and drama, and hopefully a solution will be found. Well I guess a solution already exists for such an scenareo? I like to think Satoshi left it all planned and there must be a way to find his views on this, maybe he talked about it here in Bitcointalk or something. Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: grappa_barricata on September 07, 2014, 08:34:07 PM It's a game of chicken. The miners can't stop mining because if they do the amount miners can make will go up, so they may as well continue mining and hope the price goes up. Think of it as dollar cost averaging on autopilot. Don't think about consumer-level miner from his basement... think about the 1000m^2 industrial space factories. They can't keep going for too long without a positive cash flow. They want to, perhaps, but it is not about what they want. Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: mustang77 on September 07, 2014, 09:50:01 PM Buying daily coz im not insane.
Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: nuff on September 09, 2014, 05:46:15 PM It's a game of chicken. The miners can't stop mining because if they do the amount miners can make will go up, so they may as well continue mining and hope the price goes up. Think of it as dollar cost averaging on autopilot. Don't think about consumer-level miner from his basement... think about the 1000m^2 industrial space factories. They can't keep going for too long without a positive cash flow. They want to, perhaps, but it is not about what they want. If they do the math, they'd turn off their miners and use the overheads to buy instead, which would have gotten them more than mining them. It's just a waste of time, money and electricity to mine bitcoins at the current difficulty level at the current price Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: exocytosis on September 09, 2014, 06:32:23 PM A couple of weeks from now, you'll have the chance to buy bitcoin at sub $300.
There'll be a lot of "insane" people then as well. Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: srgkrgkj on September 09, 2014, 07:46:35 PM Bitcoin at $475 :O
Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: Newbie1022 on September 09, 2014, 08:04:24 PM A couple of weeks from now, you'll have the chance to buy bitcoin at sub $300. There'll be a lot of "insane" people then as well. TITCR Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: nuff on September 10, 2014, 04:11:24 AM A couple of weeks from now, you'll have the chance to buy bitcoin at sub $300. There'll be a lot of "insane" people then as well. You know most here even permabulls too wish for a chance to buy at sub $300? Heck I'd buy all I can even at sub $400. If you're holding bitcoins and you're not buying at sub $300 you have got to be the most financially retarded person on the planet Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: deepestfear on September 10, 2014, 04:42:10 AM I tend to agree which is why I have been adding some in recent weeks
Hopefully we will look back and conclude that this was a great time to go long Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: piramida on September 10, 2014, 05:55:20 AM A couple of weeks from now, you'll have the chance to buy bitcoin at sub $300. And of course you, being a pathetic troll that you are, will just disappear instead of taking a bet on that outcome? Since you are one of the few pathetic trolls who bother to put a date on their stupid predictions, we can easily make you rich out of your wisdom. How much? I'll take you up for a 1-1 bet that we will *not* have a chance to buy bitcoin at sub $300 at bitstamp couple (as in, 3 maximum) of weeks from now, i.e. by September 31st. Via a trusted escrow, any amount you can come up with. Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: sab4you on September 10, 2014, 06:31:40 AM The premise of this thread is built upon a fallacy. The value of bitcoin is not dependent on the cost for mining, I dont even get how somebody could say this is the case.
Consider any other product, goods or services...the value of it is not guaranteed to not fall below production cost, it just becomes bad business when it does. If it costs me $10 to make a sandwich that doesn't mean people will buy it from me for $10. They can go to subway and get a 5 dollar footlong. Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: piramida on September 10, 2014, 06:47:36 AM If it costs me $10 to make a sandwich that doesn't mean people will buy it from me for $10. No, but that means you won't be selling it for less than $10. Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: ravenjt on September 10, 2014, 07:51:00 AM You would be willing to sell you sandwich for any price above the 'marginal' cost, not the total cost.
So if the ingredients cost $6, and your fixed costs (chopping board, labour etc) cost $4, then you are happy to sell at $6. This means the miner is willing to produce as long as the price is above the electricity cost Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: nuff on September 10, 2014, 07:54:07 AM The premise of this thread is built upon a fallacy. The value of bitcoin is not dependent on the cost for mining, I dont even get how somebody could say this is the case. Consider any other product, goods or services...the value of it is not guaranteed to not fall below production cost, it just becomes bad business when it does. If it costs me $10 to make a sandwich that doesn't mean people will buy it from me for $10. They can go to subway and get a 5 dollar footlong. I suggest you to read up on Bitcoin, Satoshi's white paper is a good place to start. The value of bitcoin, if nothing else, can only be derived from the cost of mining it. There is really no any other way to create a bitcoin but to mine, and mining takes processing power and electricity which cost. To compare bitcoin to a sandwich is ridiculous, a sandwich is not a store of value that is fungible, limited in production and is increasingly difficult to make. Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: farfiman on September 10, 2014, 01:19:45 PM The premise of this thread is built upon a fallacy. The value of bitcoin is not dependent on the cost for mining, I dont even get how somebody could say this is the case. Consider any other product, goods or services...the value of it is not guaranteed to not fall below production cost, it just becomes bad business when it does. If it costs me $10 to make a sandwich that doesn't mean people will buy it from me for $10. They can go to subway and get a 5 dollar footlong. I suggest you to read up on Bitcoin, Satoshi's white paper is a good place to start. The value of bitcoin, if nothing else, can only be derived from the cost of mining it. There is really no any other way to create a bitcoin but to mine, and mining takes processing power and electricity which cost. To compare bitcoin to a sandwich is ridiculous, a sandwich is not a store of value that is fungible, limited in production and is increasingly difficult to make. The value of bitcoin has nothing to do with the cost of mining. The mining difficulty has everything to do with price of bitcoin. Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: cryptofan5 on September 10, 2014, 01:29:00 PM The price is hovering around $470 at the moment. The minute I buy, it will follow to $400 or below :-)
Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: DeadCoin on October 03, 2014, 07:13:59 PM Actual production cost of one single bicoin is aroundt $530-$550. Any price below $500 is a steal. Buy now or regret years later. With difficulty ever increasing miners are getting screwed now cause anyone mining now is running at a loss. It seems like the market doesn't agree with you. BTC has been way below 500 for several days now. There's more selling than buying going on. We'll be in the three hundreds a month from now. Good call Title: Re: It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500 Post by: Chuckee on October 03, 2014, 07:20:58 PM Actual production cost of one single bicoin is aroundt $530-$550. Any price below $500 is a steal. Buy now or regret years later. With difficulty ever increasing miners are getting screwed now cause anyone mining now is running at a loss. It seems like the market doesn't agree with you. BTC has been way below 500 for several days now. There's more selling than buying going on. We'll be in the three hundreds a month from now. Good call exocytosis: Prediction skill level: Troll I love how a troll is now defined on this forum as someone who is consistently right about the market movement for the past several months. |