Bitcoin Forum

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exchanges play with SQL database values and mess with prices using small amounts. i personally do not care about what prices exchange use.

yet, places like local bitcoins which are true bank transfer for real bitcoins are a better judge of value as they cannot be manipulated via day trading.

although i do still find alot of localbitcoin traders sheep following exchange prices rather than being what they should be (trend setters, not sheep followers)

A truly market based system is the best estimation of the value of a commodity.
There is something to be said for the current value of Bitcoin to not fall in line with standard exchanges like Bitstamp or Bitfinex because of the underground nature of Bitcoin.
Case in point, I've been involved with Bitcoin for a couple of years now and have been trading primarily through LocalBitcoins.com (http://LocalBitcoins.com) during this time (comps.biz (http://comps.biz)).
This is the first time in the past 2 years that I have NOT been able to buy from sellers locally and have raised my sell price from my normal 3% markup to 30%, so clearly, "the street" is valuing Bitcoin much higher than the exchanges.
I'm no speculator and have been long Bitcoin from the jump, but the price is definitely going to be going up precisely because of this lack in parity between the exchanges and the street.

also the AML/KYC regs are killing off large spenders from depositing/withdrawing large fiat amounts. yea theres an occassional whale that day trades bitcoins and then withdraws bitcoins on exchanges, but the bank account movements are small. and thus another reason i do not trust exchanges as being a viable valuation for 13.3million coins.. when infact its mainly dust amounts being stirred around the pot multiple times.

i cant wait for the winklevoss ETF and proper ETF exchanges to open where their bank balances and bitcoin holdings need to show transparency and have the ability of moving 10,000 coins+ (millions in fiat) as then we will have a better indicator.

so far these sql database exchanges are truly undervaluing bitcoin. in china their minimum wage is 16 yuan which is over 150 hours of labour per bitcoin. yet the western world exchanges based in dollars have 1bitcoin at only 50 hours labour max..

The Winklevii ETF will be a game changer, but I'm guessing the market will go 10-20X higher pre-announcement.

That news is the most discounted news ever, if any. I dont expect a price discovery like the past one. However, back to the topic, i'd say that given current difficulty and miners problem to get with some satoshis, i will value BTC today between $700 and $800.

I would put fair value at between 500 and 600usd. Some upside here but not much.

1 BTC valued in what? If you want my valuation of bitcoin measured in fiat currency...

http://criticalthought.me/sites/default/files/public/images/post/746/internal/infinity.png

8 having a sleep?, heres my valuation of october-november
https://i.imgur.com/s4ufpFl.jpg

Ok, I would sell two of my bitcoins for $2000 each. I would sell the rest at $10,000 each. So for me, a Bitcoin is not worth $600. No way I would sell one of my bitcoin for $600.

For me, the value of bitcoin is what it is worth selling for. Purely personal, but yeah.

If we treat Bitcoin purely as a form of currency, and not as a form of investment, then its value might be much lower than the current exchange rate ($370-390). But as of now, somewhere around 80% of the coins are held by long-term investors.

I currently value 1 BTC at the market price of 400
That said I want a higher price closer to 2000 ideally myself

I don't particularly like the question because it's sort of irrelevant.

When I say "sort of irrelevant," I don't mean that individual opinion doesn't matter, but this is an auction market in which trading occurs across vastly different mediums.  In this thread we've already seen personal valuations at ~200% current market rate, but this means nothing.  The posters don't even believe in their personal valuations because nobody's partaking in the 50% off sale going on all day every day.  There's money up for grabs at half-off and nobody's buying.

I just don't think it's the best interpretation to visualize the market as requiring some Universal price anchor or pricing mechanism, but rather value will be determined by localized factors as it has been.  For example, certain factors make valuation on Bitstamp different from BTC-e, and certain factors also affect valuation of BTC traded on the chain vs. off the chain.  The price of BTC on BTC-e is always lower because it's simply near impossible to directly fund your account with fiat.  The price on Local Bitcoins is simply misleading because the spreads are ridiculous and the depth isn't there.   The prices asserted in this thread are, at best, hearsay because nobody is trading at these prices.

I value mine at a million $ each.

Just waiting for the market to catch up

If you don't value others' the same, then that implies you don't believe bitcoins are fungible.

Edit:  I know you were joking.

I can't speak for anyone else, but every spare dollar I have buys me more BTC. I've been loving these 300 days.

its a somewhat meaningless question without more context provided.

Why wouldnt I value it "currently" at the market price?

Or are you asking my personal opinion of what I think
it SHOULD be worth?

My own personal little ego thinks Bitcoin SHOULD be
a trillion dollar market, making a Bitcoin 100 times
more valuable than the market price.

In reality, I think it may take a decade to get there.

Good to know  :D  My unspoken position is also letting me enjoy these prices.

Struggling, but establishing it's profile. Making it's stand. Too many BTC is waiting in the wallet. Need more BTC in the market.

$100,000.

I value the coin at what it is currently valued at, just like any other currency that I am using.  It is worth as much as it is worth at that moment.

Youre saying the real value is something other than what peoplr are wiling to transact for.  How do you figure?

do u have to report on your income tax if you bought a car with BTC

That is not only what its like for Bitcoin, also everything that can be used as currency...The only thing is Bitcoin changes a lot more.

Right now it's $380.21.

Bitcoin, like all things in life, is worth exactly what someone is willing to pay you for it.

$700, That is what I would sell 1BTC for right now. So my bitcoins are worth $700 each.

Can't argue against this statement. If btc was worth $800 right now, that's the price people would be paying for it.

Do you have any evidence or arguments to support your theory?

Simply put:  I believe you're mistaken.

The current price is based on the order flow
and the real world market participants.
The minutia of the method is irrelevant.

Now keep in mind, the price could be much
more easily manipulated if there was a single, centralized
exchange.  But because there are many
exchanges, any substantial deviation from true market
price would create arbitrage opportunities, which in turn
would bring the market price back to its proper value.

Its a pity that bitcoin prices are dipping these days. But I do have some strong hope that they are gonna resurface in near future.

That's a very good point! Not every one of my coin worth the same, maybe 5% of them worth the current market price but the rest will worth a lot, and the last bit of them would worth infinite

Not current valuation but I'd be very happy with 10,000 USD each.
I'd be set up for life then with my coins.
I suppose that's the ultimate dream.

$1250 to sell mine, $1 to buy as long as it's being manipulated below the ATH.

Thats quite a spread  ;D - and the market price is what ?

$393 as I write

Good points

Localbitcoin traders and other brokers like coinbase and safello typically get their coin from large exchanges. Although the buyer is always more than seller on localbitcoins, as long as those brokers can purchase from exchanges without affecting exchange's price too much, the exchange rate still holds. Anyway, the exchanges have larger volume of coins trading daily

When a liquidity crisis hit and brokers are unable to get coins from large exchanges in time, they will raise the rate quickly in a tempt to cool down the demand (and that usually does not work during a rally, a raised rate will trigger more demand), and later when delayed order rushed into large exchanges, the price of those exchanges will shoot up rather quickly

The manipulators on large exchanges will only create temporary flash crash, later when more fiat money arrived from those brokers, they have to cover their position quickly before those brokers start to buy and withdraw large amount of coins. They can create fictional bitcoins on the trading platform, but they can't deal with real bitcoin withdraw

Mostly this group is long term investors I would assume.
There are many other market participants such as
short term traders, miners, short sellers...not to
mention the fact that 10 people is too small a sample
size to be statistically valid.

$950+

In my highly uninformed opinion, I base Bitcoin's value on its potential.  If indeed we can capture a significant market share (even just 1% of the GDP for the world) we would easily be looking at $50K-$100K per bitcoin in the next 5-10 years.  Just an opinion though, so take it with a grain of salt. 

I wouldn't be surprised if there isn't another run and bitcoin becomes as valuable as an ounce of gold

This is why I love the NXT asset exchange, all transactions are on the blockchain!
It's shocking to me that their is not a Bitcoin based exchange that embeds ALL activity on the blockchain, so that it can be proved what market depth is and price discovery truly is.

Hope this is not against the board rules (seeing as how I'm new here) but you should check into Fiverr howelzy.  They may have someone willing to develop something for you for much more cheaply than you might expect.

I have to say that the idea of the chinese exchanges creating balances out of thin air has reduced my faith in exchange prices.  I have no intention of selling my BTC but at the same time don't feel a big need to buy more. 

I agree with the sentiment that there will be a big move up.  Of course, I also thought that after the US Marshall's sale, and was massively wrong.  Which explains why I'm not buying.

I have some $800 bitcoins for sale if you're interested in buying.

Same here. I've been putting them on my credit card. 

I also don't love the question, but for a slightly different reason.  Markets are forward-looking, so basing a price on today's value doesn't really tell the story.  

My valuation model for BTC involves looking at it as a percentage of M2 money supply.  I know what I believe it will be worth in or around 2020 (probably less than many forumites think at around $2300-$2500) and I am buying now because, even at that price, a 6x return in less than 6 years is amazing.

But it's worth noting that, as with stock purchases, future earnings are "baked" into the price quite a bit.  I'm not buying now because I believe the intrinsic value (based on M2) is all that high, but rather because I'm buying the equivalent to future earnings.  Based on M2 calculations, I'd suspect the snapshot value TODAY using the model is more likely in the range of $20-50.  

The other thing to remember is that price and value are different.  Over time they converge, but there can be many divergences to the high side and to the low side.  It's quite possible that if adoption is strong and use-cases are strong that the value in 2020 will be $2300, but foward-looking markets will set the price much higher.  Or lower.

$3000

Your thinking doesn't make sense to me, I'm sorry to say.
  
Let's say millions of people did have the opportunity
to express their opinion about what they think Bitcoin
should be priced at, like you hypothesized.

So then what?  Who cares what they think?
They aren't the ones transacting.  So they really
have no say.  

Price is what buyers and sellers agree on.  Period!

To say it another way:

Your argument is like saying "Items at auction
are the wrong price...we should have people
vote on what they think its worth, even if they
aren't the ones bidding or selling."  

I assume you believe in free-market dynamics
and letting people decide for themselves
without external authorities, what they are
willing to pay for something.

And to say it most simply:

Exchanges don't actually set the price.
Buyers and sellers do.

Agreed, but a lack of transparency makes it unclear whether price manipulation could be (or is) performed by exchange operators.

The more exchanges there are, the more difficult that becomes because of arbitrage.  Artificially raise the price and I will sell more to you while buying cheaper elsewhere, and vice versa.

I really like your distinction about factoring future developments into the price.  Out of curiosity, could you provide any more explanation as to how you arrived specifically at a $20-50 range?

;) $1999 

Honestly I would put the value of 1 bitcoin at $317 right now. With a linear rise of about $13 per month.

I buyed @1000+ usd/btc. Now, after a year spent by occ as iona lla looking and taking losses, I buyed one more coin because I think they are cheap.

I will never, NEVER, let my coins go for less than the price I payed. I could be not a rational investor, but I think a lot of people in the btc business are thinking like me.

Of couse for a big investor is different, but seems to me there'really lot of amateurs owning btc...

The amateurs don't really hold much btc. It's mostly early adopters and rich people. It may be more distributed than a year ago, but the userbase growth for BTC has slowed down.

Didn't the distribution changed? I hope more than one whale cashed out during the " falling" ..

bitcoins

coiiiiiiiiiiinszzzzzz


need more coins

The current honest valuation of 1 bitcoin is the current price of btc on all exchanges over the world.

My valuation would be more around 600-700$. Until Bitcoin isn't mass adopted it won't maintain an higher value.

The distribution is constantly changing, but most BTC are still owned by a small percentage of people.

Mining costs might suggest the current value of a coin is $200 +/-50%

All I care is that I won't sell for less than 3000$, and only of I need the cash then.

Total respect dude. You have my total respect.

I giggle everytime I hear this line... This ETF is NOT coming out lmfao! Everyone on wall st already knows this man, you guys need to catch up!

I believe markets are efficient and that the market price of a bitcoin reflects its true value.

In the end the seller sets the value of bitcoin. Or anything. All the market tells us is the lowest price that a seller was willing to part with his property for.
So for my part, I will not sell any of my bitcoin for less than $2k. And then only a few if I need the money. But if the market was at $3k, and I needed the money, I would sell a coin because it is greater than the $2k that I value my BTC at (now).
On the reverse side of this, buyers always buy at the lowest price possible.
The phenomena of the market is the willingness of sellers to sell at a low price. If every seller were to sit back and say: "I'm not selling my BTC for less than $2k", that will be the price on the market tomorrow. Because there will always be a demand for BTC, at any price.

So in reality, the OP is actually onto something here.

Hodlers  hold, love, and want btc to the moon.
Bears go short, hate, and want btc to fall.
Speculators are emotionally unstable and, usually, lose money.

You bought btc at over $1000? That sucks man, I hope you didn't lose a lot.

between 500-600$ per BTC
and waiting for $1000+

Where is your evidence? Oh wait..

Hodlers  hold, love, and want btc to the moon but current change i want :)
between 400-450$ per BTC
and waiting for $750+

The model I'm using is based on M2 money supply, which is cash, checking deposits (basically M1) and also savings deposits and money market funds.  It does NOT include things like institutional money markets.  I think M2 suits BTC the best because it accounts for use of BTC as a currency and also as a store of value.

Modeling out to 2020, I'm trying to calculate growth rates of non-mining-related transactions (this is not easy data to find) and I'm estimating what percentage of M2-type transactions will be done in BTC.   Also trying to account for velocity increases, which decrease the required M2 money supply.  I believe that BTC velocity is actually very low right now, but that it will increase.  This view of current velocity is not popular, as most BTCers seem to think it is high, but I feel they are including mining.

So basically, BTC will constitute some percentage of the money supply by virtue of transactions and store of value, and whatever percentage of M2 is constituted by BTC, the capitalized value of BTC should equal that percentage of global M2.

As for right now, it is a wild ass guess based on what I THINK is happening.  It's easier to project the data going forward than it is to root around in data stores right now, so I haven't been all that vigilant about doing it.

Sorry...I don't think I explained that very well.  The short story is that I'm guessing about current value because.  I think I have a better idea about where we are GOING (usage, velocity) than where we are.

Based on what? Do you have any justification for this much market cap? If a single Bitcoin is currently valued at $1 million, the total market cap will reach somewhere around $16 to $17 trillion, which is many times when compared to the market cap of the US Dollar. I am not saying that it will not reach that much value in the very distant future.... but right now, the BTC is probably worth less than 1/1000th of that.

I'd like to know what he values everyone else's BTC at...

Regardless of what you guys value BTC at the "free market" you love and created is valuing BTC at 377 with a severe downtrend continuing... Since these miners are literally creating bitcoin for near double digits Im sure 99.9% of the price targets in the thread will not be hit for a long long time  :'(

I think your method of analysis is interesting, and I was particularly pleased to read the bolded selection because I think I would reach a similar, vague conclusion with that method  :D

What's interesting, and I think clever, is setting M2 analogous to BTC.  I wouldn't have thought of that particularly because I'm fairly clueless as to which types of BTC transactions are the most frequent.  How confident are you in your data?  You're analyzing and estimating several variables here, and allowing a moderate margin for error on each variable might result in either a decent average among all variables and a sensible conclusion, or you could be way, way off.

A few other questions:

1) Did you sample off-chain transactions somehow, or take them into account?

2) How confident are you in likening BTC to M2?

3) Do you actually have a calculated margin of error for any variable as well as the conclusion?

4) At the very end, you stated an assumption that seems to have influenced your conclusion independent of your data.  You mention that you're "guessing about the current value because...[you] have a better idea about where we are going."  When I read this, this says to me that you're imagining some arbitrary ceiling based upon the idea that velocity will increase.  This means that, to reach a specific conclusion, you would need to have some idea of what max velocity could be and where we are relative to that max.  But, since that is all independent of what the price is right now, why couldn't your price be $2000-5000 rather than $20-50?  Does your data *really* narrow it down that much?

5) Any particularly interesting statistics you came across? :)

Edit:  I have more questions if you don't get sick of these.

I don't see Bitcoin lasting much longer...I give it another year before value falls below $100 and then after that I think it will drop to less than $10 dollars a coin:(

I am soooooo hoping I am wrong but its just my guess

Doom & gloom

My thoughts exactly. Couldn't agree more.

If you could agree more you'd still be wrong lol

Oh wise man who knows the future, will you please tell me the lottery numbers and all that stuff so I can get rich quickly.

I guess we're at $1400 right now, applying a long-term exponential forecast, based on past performance. I know, there are several attempts to gauge the price using similar techniques, but there's simply no way of knowing which one (if any!!!) of those techniques is right...

Says the doomer predicting collapse..

You beat me to it.

In the short term
I like the number 420 since its kind of a weed number and an easy to remember checkpoint for me to buy or sell at  ;D

In the medium term
Either $666 well because we have a bunch of threads on it
Or $777 since it would be considered luckt

In the slightly longer duration
$1337 because I know bitcoiners are awesome like that and would totally try to make the price 133t for a while haha

After that OVER 9000

Then to the moon  ;)

I hadn't seen this post.  I agree a lot with it.  Of course, it is guesswork at the current market fundamentals, but I agree with you that the current market fundamentals today of bitcoin are probably much lower than the actual market price, and your range 20 - 50 makes sense.  That is, the current monetary use of bitcoin, which is probably dominated by the black market.

The analysis here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=871596.0 goes in the same direction.

Most of the current price is speculation about the future expectation of the bitcoin fundamentals.