.

[galbros]

I have to say that the idea of the chinese exchanges creating balances out of thin air has reduced my faith in exchange prices.  I have no intention of selling my BTC but at the same time don't feel a big need to buy more. 

I agree with the sentiment that there will be a big move up.  Of course, I also thought that after the US Marshall's sale, and was massively wrong.  Which explains why I'm not buying.

[MrBig]

If btc was worth $800 right now, that's the price people would be paying for it.

Interesting you should say that, i quickly ran the numbers as they stand now...

Taking all the (sensible) entries into consideration

paul = avg 750
sindelar = avg 550
beliathon = 1000 (infinity is obviously higher than 1000 so we'll accept that)
franky = avg 550
fryarminer = 2000
eternal = 400
leex = 400 (based on current bitstamp price)
questionauth = 400 (based on current bitstamp price)
rodeox = 700
butterzone = 1250

Total of 10 people replied.

Add all the numbers up you get 8000

8000 divide by 10 = $800

so the mean price of 1 bitcoin, from the 10 people who replied in this post alone is higher than the supposed 'free market' price on the exchanges  

so this might be something worth exploring after all, hmmm...

I have some $800 bitcoins for sale if you're interested in buying.

[fryarminer]

In this thread we've already seen personal valuations at ~200% current market rate, but this means nothing.  The posters don't even believe in their personal valuations because nobody's partaking in the 50% off sale going on all day every day.

I can't speak for anyone else, but every spare dollar I have buys me more BTC. I've been loving these 300 days.

Same here. I've been putting them on my credit card. 

[vuduchyld]

I don't particularly like the question because it's sort of irrelevant.

When I say "sort of irrelevant," I don't mean that individual opinion doesn't matter, but this is an auction market in which trading occurs across vastly different mediums.  In this thread we've already seen personal valuations at ~200% current market rate, but this means nothing.  The posters don't even believe in their personal valuations because nobody's partaking in the 50% off sale going on all day every day.  There's money up for grabs at half-off and nobody's buying.

I just don't think it's the best interpretation to visualize the market as requiring some Universal price anchor or pricing mechanism, but rather value will be determined by localized factors as it has been.  For example, certain factors make valuation on Bitstamp different from BTC-e, and certain factors also affect valuation of BTC traded on the chain vs. off the chain.  The price of BTC on BTC-e is always lower because it's simply near impossible to directly fund your account with fiat.  The price on Local Bitcoins is simply misleading because the spreads are ridiculous and the depth isn't there.   The prices asserted in this thread are, at best, hearsay because nobody is trading at these prices.

I also don't love the question, but for a slightly different reason.  Markets are forward-looking, so basing a price on today's value doesn't really tell the story.  

My valuation model for BTC involves looking at it as a percentage of M2 money supply.  I know what I believe it will be worth in or around 2020 (probably less than many forumites think at around $2300-$2500) and I am buying now because, even at that price, a 6x return in less than 6 years is amazing.

But it's worth noting that, as with stock purchases, future earnings are "baked" into the price quite a bit.  I'm not buying now because I believe the intrinsic value (based on M2) is all that high, but rather because I'm buying the equivalent to future earnings.  Based on M2 calculations, I'd suspect the snapshot value TODAY using the model is more likely in the range of $20-50.  

The other thing to remember is that price and value are different.  Over time they converge, but there can be many divergences to the high side and to the low side.  It's quite possible that if adoption is strong and use-cases are strong that the value in 2020 will be $2300, but foward-looking markets will set the price much higher.  Or lower.

[lyth0s]

$3000

[jonald_fyookball]

Mostly this group is long term investors I would assume.
There are many other market participants such as
short term traders, miners, short sellers...not to
mention the fact that 10 people is too small a sample
size to be statistically valid.

Obviously, to both of your points... but the numbers don't lie and its clear 'the street' as one poster said believes bitcoin to be worth more than the exchanges tell us

I wonder what the mean price would look like if their were millions of entries, and if any exchange service could then be built using that price knowing that it had the backing of millions of people

Your thinking doesn't make sense to me, I'm sorry to say.
  
Let's say millions of people did have the opportunity
to express their opinion about what they think Bitcoin
should be priced at, like you hypothesized.

So then what?  Who cares what they think?
They aren't the ones transacting.  So they really
have no say.  

Price is what buyers and sellers agree on.  Period!

To say it another way:

Your argument is like saying "Items at auction
are the wrong price...we should have people
vote on what they think its worth, even if they
aren't the ones bidding or selling."  

I assume you believe in free-market dynamics
and letting people decide for themselves
without external authorities, what they are
willing to pay for something.

And to say it most simply:

Exchanges don't actually set the price.
Buyers and sellers do.

[wilth1]

And to say it most simply:

Exchanges don't actually set the price.
Buyers and sellers do.

Agreed, but a lack of transparency makes it unclear whether price manipulation could be (or is) performed by exchange operators.

[jonald_fyookball]

And to say it most simply:

Exchanges don't actually set the price.
Buyers and sellers do.

Agreed, but a lack of transparency makes it unclear whether price manipulation could be (or is) performed by exchange operators.

The more exchanges there are, the more difficult that becomes because of arbitrage.  Artificially raise the price and I will sell more to you while buying cheaper elsewhere, and vice versa.

[the joint]

I don't particularly like the question because it's sort of irrelevant.

When I say "sort of irrelevant," I don't mean that individual opinion doesn't matter, but this is an auction market in which trading occurs across vastly different mediums.  In this thread we've already seen personal valuations at ~200% current market rate, but this means nothing.  The posters don't even believe in their personal valuations because nobody's partaking in the 50% off sale going on all day every day.  There's money up for grabs at half-off and nobody's buying.

I just don't think it's the best interpretation to visualize the market as requiring some Universal price anchor or pricing mechanism, but rather value will be determined by localized factors as it has been.  For example, certain factors make valuation on Bitstamp different from BTC-e, and certain factors also affect valuation of BTC traded on the chain vs. off the chain.  The price of BTC on BTC-e is always lower because it's simply near impossible to directly fund your account with fiat.  The price on Local Bitcoins is simply misleading because the spreads are ridiculous and the depth isn't there.   The prices asserted in this thread are, at best, hearsay because nobody is trading at these prices.

I also don't love the question, but for a slightly different reason.  Markets are forward-looking, so basing a price on today's value doesn't really tell the story.  

My valuation model for BTC involves looking at it as a percentage of M2 money supply.  I know what I believe it will be worth in or around 2020 (probably less than many forumites think at around $2300-$2500) and I am buying now because, even at that price, a 6x return in less than 6 years is amazing.

But it's worth noting that, as with stock purchases, future earnings are "baked" into the price quite a bit.  I'm not buying now because I believe the intrinsic value (based on M2) is all that high, but rather because I'm buying the equivalent to future earnings.  Based on M2 calculations, I'd suspect the snapshot value TODAY using the model is more likely in the range of $20-50.  

The other thing to remember is that price and value are different.  Over time they converge, but there can be many divergences to the high side and to the low side.  It's quite possible that if adoption is strong and use-cases are strong that the value in 2020 will be $2300, but foward-looking markets will set the price much higher.  Or lower.

I really like your distinction about factoring future developments into the price.  Out of curiosity, could you provide any more explanation as to how you arrived specifically at a $20-50 range?

[nextblast]

$1999 

[Elwar]

Honestly I would put the value of 1 bitcoin at $317 right now. With a linear rise of about $13 per month.

[erre]

I buyed @1000+ usd/btc. Now, after a year spent by occ as iona lla looking and taking losses, I buyed one more coin because I think they are cheap.

I will never, NEVER, let my coins go for less than the price I payed. I could be not a rational investor, but I think a lot of people in the btc business are thinking like me.

Of couse for a big investor is different, but seems to me there'really lot of amateurs owning btc...

[MrBig]

I buyed @1000+ usd/btc. Now, after a year spent by occ as iona lla looking and taking losses, I buyed one more coin because I think they are cheap.

I will never, NEVER, let my coins go for less than the price I payed. I could be not a rational investor, but I think a lot of people in the btc business are thinking like me.

Of couse for a big investor is different, but seems to me there'really lot of amateurs owning btc...

The amateurs don't really hold much btc. It's mostly early adopters and rich people. It may be more distributed than a year ago, but the userbase growth for BTC has slowed down.

[erre]

I buyed @1000+ usd/btc. Now, after a year spent by occ as iona lla looking and taking losses, I buyed one more coin because I think they are cheap.

I will never, NEVER, let my coins go for less than the price I payed. I could be not a rational investor, but I think a lot of people in the btc business are thinking like me.

Of couse for a big investor is different, but seems to me there'really lot of amateurs owning btc...

The amateurs don't really hold much btc. It's mostly early adopters and rich people. It may be more distributed than a year ago, but the userbase growth for BTC has slowed down.

Didn't the distribution changed? I hope more than one whale cashed out during the " falling" ..

[chopstick]

bitcoins

coiiiiiiiiiiinszzzzzz


need more coins

[Gargulan]

Trying to figure out if there is another way the average bitcoin price could be calculated other than being set by the largest exchanges, the standard bid/ask order book procedure whereby the 'current price' is set by whatever the 'value' of the most recent trade is just... old fashioned in my opinion, maybe i don't quite understand but i believe it is a system of exchange designed for the inflation based fiat world and its associated financial vehicles in order to artificially lower or control prices, there has to be a better way of setting a mean price in the deflation based crypto world?

For example...

10 friends may value a single bitcoin at $800, however if just 2 of those friends were to 'exchange' a single bitcoin for $200 that would automatically make the other 8 individuals bitcoin worth $200, this to me doesn't seem right when the majority (8 over 2) value a single bitcoin at $800... why should the 'exchange price' drop to $200 because the minority decided so?

I know what the current EXCHANGE prices are however i would like to know what YOUR valuation is, no sitting on the fence please... just a simple figure will be perfect.

This is a little experiment so that i can calculate the mean price from all the answers in 'this discussion' and compare it to the exchange prices to see if its worth exploring further.

What is your honest current valuation of 1 bitcoin, in USD (for convenience)?

Cheers
J

The current honest valuation of 1 bitcoin is the current price of btc on all exchanges over the world.

[djnocide]

My valuation would be more around 600-700$. Until Bitcoin isn't mass adopted it won't maintain an higher value.

[MrBig]

I buyed @1000+ usd/btc. Now, after a year spent by occ as iona lla looking and taking losses, I buyed one more coin because I think they are cheap.

I will never, NEVER, let my coins go for less than the price I payed. I could be not a rational investor, but I think a lot of people in the btc business are thinking like me.

Of couse for a big investor is different, but seems to me there'really lot of amateurs owning btc...

The amateurs don't really hold much btc. It's mostly early adopters and rich people. It may be more distributed than a year ago, but the userbase growth for BTC has slowed down.

Didn't the distribution changed? I hope more than one whale cashed out during the " falling" ..

The distribution is constantly changing, but most BTC are still owned by a small percentage of people.

[wilth1]

Mining costs might suggest the current value of a coin is $200 +/-50%

[okthen]

All I care is that I won't sell for less than 3000$, and only of I need the cash then.