Bitcoin Forum

Just a theory, but I have a gut feeling that if we witness another bubble cycle, the majority of traders will underestimate the peak, possibly by a significant amount.

Why?

IMO the last two bubbles were nothing in the grand scheme of things. Even in the runup to 1200 USD, I would have guessed that maybe 1 in 10 people would have heard of Bitcoin. I think that figure could well be closer to 5 in 10 by now.

We have the two largest stock exchanges (NYSE, NASDAQ) giving credibility to the technology, and people seem to be educating themselves more so than they would have tended to a few years back

We will hopefully have the BIT providing access for institutional investment.

Wall street want their slice of the pie. But the pie is too small right now. So they're gonna have to make it bigger.

Why not load up now, drive the price to tens of thousands of dollars, and then cash out for ridiculous profits before repeating the whole thing.

This wouldn't even be market manipulation - simply buying an asset deemed to be undervalued, and then selling at profit. Natural market forces would drive the bubble thus nobody could be accused of manipulation, and it would be very easy money.

Am I missing something, or is this whole thing a lot more simple than most people are willing to believe?

Sound nice but rather not. When it went from 1200 to current price right now, I just wonder what's the effect in terms of loss of reputation. What does people see in bitcoin? As a reliable currency? It will be good for those people who are looking to make a nice profit. But if you consider long term the negative effect is more profound and less people is going to trust bitcoin. As in previous thread, I've made it clear that we don't need wall street. These people are just there to make money and they don't care what the decentralization, low cost cross border transaction and the rest means to them.

Once everyone who wants a slice of the Bitcoin pie buys at these price levels, hold onto your hats. Because once there's nothing left to sell, price goes up.

I stopped right there.  Theory and gut feeling shouldn't be used in the same sentence...  Especially when it relates to something that could make you lose some money.

Bitcoiners are perfectly fine with their investment being a pump&dump.

Paid trolls are just fine with wasting their time in a forum on a topic they don't believe in

Isn't that how all theories are developed before researched or proven/unproven? "I have a gut feeling we don't actually have all the planets and stars revolve around us, but we revolve around the sun..."

Sure.  But that's astronomy.  This is money.  And any decision about money that involves a "gut feeling" would mostly lead to losses. 

Well, most of the posts in the speculation section are about gut feeling, rather than theory. It is a nice reading, though.

if you count every "gut feeling" here in this section, some truth might come ahead, i mean one of them must be right about the movement of bitcoin

it's more fun to read about opinions, than having the right prediction immedaitely, and personally i'm sharing the same feel of the OP, something big is coming...

we will not
for one simple reason
you say : why not load up now, drive the price to tens of thousands of dollars, and then cash out for ridiculous profits before repeating the whole thing.

and THEN cash out
when is THEN? at 10.000 ? but then everyone is going to dump there and you'll never be able to sell it and we are low again in a few seconds. So everyone wants to cash out at 9.999 but no that's also too late then so lower and lower and lower... without any good reason we'll never see the 1000 $ again. But we probably will see something great coming up and becoming a reason sometime but nobody knows when. It can be next second or it can be in 5 years..

My gut says something big is coming as well. Could easily be wrong and not sure what to expect, just a feeling something is on the horizon.

My gut tells me to go eat a breakfast burrito and drink my premium water from my swarvoski cup.

But hey, whatever your gut feeling is, its 100% correct. :D Look no matter how you look at things, time is not on your side, so what I focus on is what can I do to prepare if the price does go up.

Am I doing the following:

1. Building a non traditional business / btc
2. Being aware that no one can control the future, but better being prepared is the key by focusing on other areas to support the 1st part above.

Now that just tears it. Do you even know what gut feeling is? It's your connection with the silent knowing that goes beyond the comprehension of this petty little thing called your mind. I wouldn't normally step into arguments like that but you are outright spreading wrong and malicious information. Gut feeling is what people should listen to. It is the mind and the ego that make us do all the wrong decisions in life.

Just remember, there was a lot of doom and gloom in Aug 2013 as well.  People then thought that the April-May 2013 rally was still deflating, and that they were still headed down, more down. 

Then October happened...

I can completely understand the sentiment, this market is very unpredictable.  People expect the worst with bitcoin, instead of hoping for the best possible outcome long term.

It is almost that simple:
There is still the slight chance of a huge, previously undiscovered bug in the Bitcoin code and/or an altcoin that somehow takes over.
The future should be very bright for Bitcoin.  :)

People seem to be unstable emotionally, at least the most of these that are posting in the speculation sub-forum. Every single day there is a new thread about either going to the moon, or going down to double digit, and then people are 'disappointed' when some healthy horizontal trend happens. It will be boring for the next month or two, nothing bad about it. Patience is the key!

I think this "unstable" trollish behavior is primarily those who either missed the boat at single/double digits, sold too early or lost their coin somehow and now are angry and bitter, or can't afford much and see it as an opportunity to better their economic status. Some are trading, talking their books, risking what they already have to make more. Some are simply angry and jealous. Their emotions reflect that they are (or were) invested somehow.

Overall I get the sense that most here are self-interested, trying to increase their stash of a very limited and soon-to-be more expensive digitally-limited commodity.

We're near the bottom of a market cycle that plays out over years, so it is very difficult for many to take a longer-term view. I do think the market will turn around this year, either gradually or violently, which will help sentiment a lot but unfortunately draw in many new users looking to get rich, probably more so than 2013 given Bitcoin's increased publicity. Those that buy near the top will become future weak hands that will drive the subsequent and unavoidable bear market. Those few that stuck out the bear market will now be in a much stronger position. Exciting times if it happens.

people who sell at $2000 will be shocked when we hit $15000

Yeah, I think one of the biggest advantages we now have may be the sheer mass of people with a lot of money lying around watching Bitcoin to see if it bubbles again at some point. If it does, they will enter. Just wait for a trend-reversal...

While bitcoin is not able to break the 300$ barrier, dreaming of 2000$ and 15000$ is.. lovely  ;D

But my guts tell me that (though not impossible to reach!) those figures will still wait quite a few more months.

guess what, if 1 unique country (ireland, island) convert 50% of his currency to use a "stable" value ... but if they can't buy gold (because of the russia and china buyers) ?

they choose bitcoin instead.

You do realize that we're in a phase of finding the true bottom and are struggling to achieve a breakout off the 15-month bear market(!!!) If the turnaround has been confirmed, we will go up. Big time.

they said the same thing before the 1200 peak, bitcoin was stuck at 100 dollars, then boom, 1200 in a few moments

x12 increase, 15k i might agree that it is out of range for now but 2k is achievable

Careful, people will tell you that this was due to the Willy and Markus bots by Gox. Could be, could not be. That being said, even if we factor out both bubbles of 2013, we're not back on the long-term exponential curve.

A government will not give up printed money that easy. Ukraine, Greece - yes, there's a tiny chance there. The only real luck can be with China, which will buy any possible means of assets possible, Bitcoin included.
But they may be already "full".


Yes. We may be close to the true bottom or we may have reached it and now being in the "stable" area. But the stable area needs some time the investors gain trust in Bitcoin again after some got goxxed big time. And the stable area may not be breached (upwards) this year.

ok, but wait a second. The same people waiting on the sidelines are reading every day the news about another exchange biting the dust. I wouldn't over-estimate the number of people who want to get into Bitcoin, just based on (the sentiment on) this forum. But in the end I agree, Bitcoin has big potential for the upside, provided all the 'smoke news' about the ETF materialise. Then it can go quite quickly.

The bottom is in at 152$, trust me. At least 2 people have confirmed it as this number appeared in their dreams prior to the actual manifestation of the bottom itself.

Oh my god thank you so much! I have never seen such concrete and unarguable proofs in my life! This is without a doubt the truth.

Most subtle trolling I've read in the last week here. Great job!  ;D ;D

Still there are enough people who are willing to invest in this risky asset (obviously). With better ETFs and investment vehicles, investors on Wall Street may be very willing to give our little golden coin a shot!

what's the point of waiting when you can enter now at $250 instead of buying bitcoin once a bubble is in the making.
people will end up buying at much higher price. best is buy now and be ready for it once it happens.

A nice insight. During the ath at Nov. 2013, only a few people all over the world knew about this bitcoin thing. When the price skyrocketed, many people--particularly those who thought of bitcoin as a legitimate 'get-rich-quick' scheme'--entered the scene and thus add to the buying and selling force. Some who faced losses in buying bitcoins left the markets, but most of them don't, and stayed. The point is there are more users who might add up to the buying force in the market once another bubble occurs. If the Wall Street and other major players in the economic scene invested in bitcoin, then people who are looking for an opportunity to get some hefty profit may (or may not) invest into bitcoins as well. Seeing that most of the major financial institutions are also invested, they might feel safe in having this investment. As a result, the graphs will see a horizontal uptrend, but no one will be accused of manipulation because, well, there are many people who are willing to buy bitcoins at any given price. The bubble could explode any time, but the cycle could be easily repeated because there are many people who might support the next bubble. Well if another bubble will happen, I can at least say that it will be bigger this time, given that the exposure bitcoin gained over the past years is higher compared to what it had om 2009-2013.

Apparently, there aren't many people in this world that believes in bitcoin's potential. As history is stating, the majority of the people in the world tend to follow their "leaders" and those people who are deemed as their "model", same as to what is happening in the financial and economic sector. Most people wouldn't risk their money if they do not have enough knowledge and the guts to take the risks and accept losses whenever they fail. They tend to follow a successful man rather than shape their own future. And guess who are the successful entities that I'm talking about? They are the risk-takers. Bitcoin has a lot of potential; it's just that people aren't seeing it, still sticking to fiat and believing that it could do them good. But once the "successful ones" entered the bitcoin scheme, majority of the people who wants to be successful will soon follow their footsteps.

Because

https://unrepentantoldhippie.files.wordpress.com/2009/11/opium-museum-photo-gallery_1258644901500.png

Agree, but that may happen only after ETF really materialise, that is... when?
Well, to me it looks that we will see a lot of positive events and developments shortly before the next halving event. That is, more or less one year from now.

It would surprise me if the ETf does finally go through and gets accepted on SEC. Most have been waiting for that announcement back in 2013 though.. and its been like 3 years now.

Although I`ll be more intrigued, if the movement of the price goes like $700 price mark.

Isn't it obvious? Right now we keep on pushing agains the long-term bear-market-resistance. As long as we stay below that line, we're going down. As soon as we break out of that trend: Party time. Buying now is more risky than buying at $350. Way more, in my opinion.

The halving will be very good for the price, that's a given. I don't know really how much it will push the price up, but it's good to see the supply go down. More ETFs will materialize, don't worry :)

There will be something to sell, it has to, otherwise bitcoin wouldn't work... bitcoin is infinitely divisble, what will happen is smaller amounts will get sold by a lot more price.

you might want to check this thread :

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=800330.0

I think we're nearing the start of another bull cycle, Dollar Index is looking toppy too. :)

Something better be happening soon, I'm getting bored. That damn supply is killing the price I tell you hwhat. Every 10 minutes someone gets 25 bitcoins. 3600 bitcoins get dumped erry day. The demand is actually pretty good if you consider the fact that price is holding triple digits under all this selling pressure from miners. If miners were to stop selling, where would the price go?

Will you people eventually stop repeating this nonsense.

No, 3600 bitcoins do not get dumped on the market everyday.

No, not all miners have to sell their mining rewards in order to keep running.

So what? It's the intrinsic supply. You want be a smartass and whine about precision? Sure some won't sell but then again there are old coins that get sold. I'm referring to the order of magnitude of new coins that the network has to handle every day.

Your whole post is complaining about pressure from miners selling.

I'm here to tell you only a portion of them do and surely the current price is not a result of miners' selling pressure.

Take it how you want it but I'm just saying you're barking at the wrong door.

3600 BTC get dumped every day? Who says that this is actually true? Don't you think that at least a considerable amount of those coins are *not* liquidated? What about people buying BTC in bulk from miners, in order not to push the price up (long term acquiring phase)?

The only one complaining is your mom. Surely the current price is the result of the miners' selling pressure because if miners didn't sell or didn't receive a single coin the price would be higher. Now you probably want to say that miners are not the only factor and I agree but you must admit that mining still generates a lot of coins out of thin air and we can never say for sure where they end up.


Yes I think at least a considerable amount of those coins are not liquidated. That doesn't change the fact that a considerable amount of those coins are being sold every day. My point is that if miners would get only 3.125 bitcoins for a block then the price of a single bitcoin would be much higher than what it is today. You can say it's because of miners' selling or that it isn't but the price would without doubt be higher. Basic supply and demand logic, you can't argue that.

that is how horizontal markets look like. Boredom for most of the time until the pop happens. Usually most of the people get bored on the way, waiting for the pop. That is where I believe Bitcoin is right now.

Surely I was also expecting more movement over this past week. I'm sure a jump is coming (either way) but the waiting makes it tempting to play into the boring phase too.

Im getting loaded with btc as we speak, the big rally could start at any time now.

Yeah, sure, I don't disagree that this is definitely putting more pressure on the price than when there weren't any coins being mined every day. That's also the reason why everyone is waiting for the block reward halving. The supply isn't new, though. And never underestimate speculation.

The halving is a nice price trigger but we don't really need to depend on it, other things will push the price up, it will be the sum of a lot of variables.

It's not as much as a trigger - the halving will be priced in well before it occurs. We may already now pricing it in slowly without even realizing it. Then again, it could push the next potential bubble way higher than otherwise (without the halving).

Considering the amount of coins that can potentially be sold every day just for the sake of it, we must congratulate ourselves for even price stagnation. As long as the price doesn't decrease rapidly by orders of magnitude, time is actually our friend.

Yeah, I guess you are right. I for one would like to enter a short position in a definite and clear bear market, though. And right now things seem to be as tense as never before :D

If Luc is right,



then OP could very well be on to something.  ;D

You need to have people selling some bitcoin ("dumping"), else there would be no volume.. Would you rather have one big green candle pointing at 1000 USD because there are no sellers between 260 and 1000 USD?

It is a beautiful cycle, in its own way. People get attracted to bitcoin as the price rises and quickly invest in it, giving it even more rise. This rise keeps happening as trade expands and people seem to use bitcoin adopting the currency. The trend reversal takes place and a lot of money is poured in, the hype is important. The constant hype bitcoin gets, the better it grows, the bigger it expands!

It won't stop at 1000$. If this is a "real" wave 3, and the run-up from wave 1 ended at 1200$, then we will see numbers of over 100k$ and the bull market will continue till +2020.

They were false and caused by willy bot...

there were two bubbles caused by willy? i'm only aware of one, the other in 2011 with x25/x30 increased wasn't certainly caused by any bills

another little bubble was the one in april 2013, when the price rised x2.3, and again it wasn't billy at all

What could trigger the next bubble? I mean for it to increase 10x etc it'll need huge amounts to be bought up. Something massive needs to happen. Some black swan event........... Or ETF

no one said that willy bot wasn't a chinese bot, so the point stand, maybe he was trolling but i don't think he certainly know if there weren't other big bot in the past that caused a rally

i was curious to find this out...

If this is to turn out real, this will show the limits of how speculation can turn out into reality...
Will need to buy some coins as if this really happens, we also need to have some coins already on hands in order to be something at that time, as just talks won't get us anywhere I guess... ;)

How come this thread has no charts??

Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that Bitcoin will indeed have another bubble. I believe that it is possible for Bitcoin to have another bubble and I personally hope that it does. But, no one knows for sure.

If you believe it will rise and more people adopting it will happen, a resulting bubble is borderline inevitable. That's just how human psychology works with something of this nature.

A steady stairway upwards is better for everyone and everything but if there's demand, hype and not that much to go around there'll continue to be violent spikes.

Having said that, the landscape post Gox is now so much more widely distributed it'll be interesting to see what shape any type of bubble would take.

Damn straight. Bitcoin market manipulation may have happened in the past, but never again; ergo, no more bubbles. Q.E.D. Regulation has begun to kick in -- thank goodness for that -- and regulation definitely eliminates manipulation. Another few years of mainstreaming and the bitcoin indices will be as trustworthy and squeaky clean as, ummm, Libor .... errr, wait a minute ...  ???

I would not say a bubble will NEVER occur again. It is more unlikely but would never say never. IF something bizarre happens again or very huge news comes out its possible (for example listed on US stock exchange). I doubt the bubble would be as big as $1000 but you never know.

The introduction of shorting may have helped stabilize bitcoin. May 2014 would've probably turned into a bubble in the long-only days.

Beautiful.

Then again if 1 bitcoin hits $10,000 instead of a mass sell off people could be thinking - Wow $1 gets me 10,000 Satoshi's!

Likely as prices rise people will start to price things in terms of Satoshi's relative to other currencies, and less so in terms of a whole Bitcoin.

with that price fees could start to be seen as expensive and faucets should change their reward for sure

but it would not be a bubble of few days, the time for adapting will be abundant, for when we can attain such value

Perhaps the fee's will simply collapse down further decimal places. So with the hypothetical of $1 dollar equaling 10,000 Satoshi's you could still collapse the fee down to a single Satoshi as the smallest unit still allowing the cost of transferring $1 dollar to be as little as $.0001 dollars.
Now that's still extremely low a fee to transfer value. Of course for such a hypothetical mining would become a much larger economic expenditure and common activity worldwide.

We go a power of ten every time so I'd expect $10k-$90k for round 5 :)