Downward trend imminent

[EuroTrash]

Care to explain why all 3 turning out scams would move the rate down that drastically (or at all for that matter)?

ASIC investors seeling their BTCs to repay the loans in fiat they originally got to fill in their pre-orders?
Depressed people dumping all their BTCs and embracing new religions due to utter loss of trust in the bitcoin world?

(all of these being temporary phenomena and at the same time a great chance to buy).

[1714797147]

1714797147

[ElectricMucus]

If you consider the possibility that all three ASIC mining companies turn out to be scams there is even a straight-forward explanation for such a scenario. In that case even sub-dollar prices might be possible.

Care to explain why all 3 turning out scams would move the rate down that drastically (or at all for that matter)?

EuroTrash already did that for me.


The main reason I would see this as so dramatic the people who would be affected by this would be those who invested the most into bitcoin. They are the people who also already own alot of Bitcoin since many of them are miners. And finally the reaction of the general public would be dramatic as if major business in this economy cannot be trusted who can you trust.

[molecular]

Care to explain why all 3 turning out scams would move the rate down that drastically (or at all for that matter)?

ASIC investors seeling their BTCs to repay the loans in fiat they originally got to fill in their pre-orders?
Depressed people dumping all their BTCs and embracing new religions due to utter loss of trust in the bitcoin world?

(all of these being temporary phenomena and at the same time a great chance to buy).

Take a loan to invest into ASIC mining hardware that might never be delivered?!? That's just reckless! People are doing that? People that have BTC?

People being depressed, I can see that. But that's not going to be people that have much Bitium to begin with, so it won't be a huge dump down to the sub-dollar area.

"Trust in Bitcoin deteriorating" is the only reason I can think of, really. And that trust is pretty much at the bottom already so it wouldn't have huge effect in my mind.

Also: think of all the GPU miners and gamer-dudes. They'll be all "hoooray - let's by all the coins" by your logic.

[molecular]

If you consider the possibility that all three ASIC mining companies turn out to be scams there is even a straight-forward explanation for such a scenario. In that case even sub-dollar prices might be possible.

Care to explain why all 3 turning out scams would move the rate down that drastically (or at all for that matter)?

EuroTrash already did that for me.


The main reason I would see this as so dramatic the people who would be affected by this would be those who invested the most into bitcoin. They are the people who also already own alot of Bitcoin since many of them are miners. And finally the reaction of the general public would be dramatic as if major business in this economy cannot be trusted who can you trust.

The people that already own a lot of bitcoin selling off is a good thing imo: distributes more coins from early adopters to the masses. Let it happen. I doubt it, though... These people have "lived through" the "depression of Fall 2011", they will live through "ASIC fail" just fine.

Again: the general public already thinks bitcoins is just one huge fractal scam.

[ElectricMucus]

If you consider the possibility that all three ASIC mining companies turn out to be scams there is even a straight-forward explanation for such a scenario. In that case even sub-dollar prices might be possible.

Care to explain why all 3 turning out scams would move the rate down that drastically (or at all for that matter)?

EuroTrash already did that for me.


The main reason I would see this as so dramatic the people who would be affected by this would be those who invested the most into bitcoin. They are the people who also already own alot of Bitcoin since many of them are miners. And finally the reaction of the general public would be dramatic as if major business in this economy cannot be trusted who can you trust.

The people that already own a lot of bitcoin selling off is a good thing imo: distributes more coins from early adopters to the masses. Let it happen. I doubt it, though... These people have "lived through" the "depression of Fall 2011", they will live through "ASIC fail" just fine.

Still it would get the prices down, at least as long as the drama unfolds after which the price can rise again.

Again: the general public already thinks bitcoins is just one huge fractal scam.

Then why are you still here?
SELL SELL SELL!  

Seriously if that were true, there would be no possible way for BTC to ever reach old highs again.

[runeks]

So has the imminent downward trend been called off? Mtgoxlive seems pretty optimistic to me...

It's OK. Let the admiration of my almost prophet-like prediction begin:

I highly doubt that we will see $5 coins again, ever. But that's just my humble opinion. Unless confidence in Bitcoin itself (the protocol, or the reference client's implementation of it) is impacted. I actually think $11 is quite low (current price is $11.06 as of this writing).

I'm planning on spending the rest of my Mt. Gox balance ($140) on $11 coins right now. But price seems to be dropping right now, so I might wait a bit.

EDIT: Just bought 12.84 BTC for $142.

Cut to price crashing to $8

If you consider the possibility that all three ASIC mining companies turn out to be scams there is even a straight-forward explanation for such a scenario. In that case even sub-dollar prices might be possible.

Care to explain why all 3 turning out scams would move the rate down that drastically (or at all for that matter)?

As far as I can count, there are at least 5 alleged Bitcoin mining ASICs being developed.

• BFL
• bASIC
• DeepBit "Reclaimer"
• Block Erupter
• Avalon

[mobodick]

So has the imminent downward trend been called off? Mtgoxlive seems pretty optimistic to me...

Well, if you consider the peak that happened around the beginning of october then we are still in a downward trend.
What you see now is a rebound from the recent sell-off.

[mobodick]

Again: the general public already thinks bitcoins is just one huge fractal scam.

What is a 'fractal scam' ?

[vokain]

Again: the general public already thinks bitcoins is just one huge fractal scam.

What is a 'fractal scam' ?

self-perpetuating possibly?

[molecular]

Again: the general public already thinks bitcoins is just one huge fractal scam.

What is a 'fractal scam' ?

a scam that consists of many smaller subscams, which in turn consist of many smaller subscams,....

[molecular]

If you consider the possibility that all three ASIC mining companies turn out to be scams there is even a straight-forward explanation for such a scenario. In that case even sub-dollar prices might be possible.

Care to explain why all 3 turning out scams would move the rate down that drastically (or at all for that matter)?

EuroTrash already did that for me.


The main reason I would see this as so dramatic the people who would be affected by this would be those who invested the most into bitcoin. They are the people who also already own alot of Bitcoin since many of them are miners. And finally the reaction of the general public would be dramatic as if major business in this economy cannot be trusted who can you trust.

The people that already own a lot of bitcoin selling off is a good thing imo: distributes more coins from early adopters to the masses. Let it happen. I doubt it, though... These people have "lived through" the "depression of Fall 2011", they will live through "ASIC fail" just fine.

Still it would get the prices down, at least as long as the drama unfolds after which the price can rise again.

Again: the general public already thinks bitcoins is just one huge fractal scam.

Then why are you still here?
SELL SELL SELL!  

Because I'm not the general public.

Seriously if that were true, there would be no possible way for BTC to ever reach old highs again.

Why can't the general public change its mind?

[Richy_T]

Still, 10% of USD value lost in two weeks is a considerable amount, depending on the scale of your investment, of course.

Psht. I had the pound do that on me a couple of years back. It still hasn't recovered though. I also had property in the UK so double busted

Edit: My mistake, it was 20%. Frikkin' Gordon Brown...

[lebing]

Again: the general public already thinks bitcoins is just one huge fractal scam.

Thats reassuring actually.

[Richy_T]

The general public probably thinks a fractal is one of them funny pictures where you cross your eyes and see a boat.

[ElectricMucus]

As far as I can count, there are at least 5 alleged Bitcoin mining ASICs being developed.

• BFL
• bASIC
• DeepBit "Reclaimer"
• Block Erupter
• Avalon

I wouldn't count Block Erupter since there are no actual Devices sold, just the hashing power. Out of all these that one is the most likely to be a scam, I would even call it likely.
The other guys: Short of some sort of widely unknown and already existing SHA-2 ASIC which all is the basis for their devices I cannot see how they can all deliver. If that were the case the thing will quickly escalate in terms of prices of these devices. Competition would explode up to the point where they are sold at a single-digit percent markup.

But in the prospect of this many guys among a them the most prominent pool operation in on this, for the sake of Bitcoin I really hope it's no scam...As I said before in another thread: If BFL turns out to be a scam it is likely that all of them are scams since they were first. There is nothing to debate about it though, the only thing we can do is see and wait.

One thing is certain: It will be epic, either in terms of the frenzy or the drama and it could make or break bitcoin.

[lebing]

As far as I can count, there are at least 5 alleged Bitcoin mining ASICs being developed.

• BFL
• bASIC
• DeepBit "Reclaimer"
• Block Erupter
• Avalon

I wouldn't count Block Erupter since there are no actual Devices sold, just the hashing power. Out of all these that one is the most likely to be a scam, I would even call it likely.
The other guys: Short of some sort of widely unknown and already existing SHA-2 ASIC which all is the basis for their devices I cannot see how they can all deliver. If that were the case the thing will quickly escalate in terms of prices of these devices. Competition would explode up to the point where they are sold at a single-digit percent markup.

But in the prospect of this many guys among a them the most prominent pool operation in on this, for the sake of Bitcoin I really hope it's no scam...As I said before in another thread: If BFL turns out to be a scam it is likely that all of them are scams since they were first. There is nothing to debate about it though, the only thing we can do is see and wait.

One thing is certain: It will be epic, either in terms of the frenzy or the drama and it could make or break bitcoin.

Pyramining are developing their own asics as well

[evoorhees]

I keep seeing this sentiment all over the forums. the cost of ongoing production is less than $1.00 per BTC right now.

If that's the cost of making a bitcoin then people are insane to buy them for $10+ right now.

So what price should they buy them for?

It is not the cost of producing something that matters. It's the price at which a seller will sell it.

By your logic, if the cost of producing a coin was $100, are you saying the price would need to be $110?  I think if the cost was $100 per coin, people would stop mining, but the market price of coins on the market would be well below $100.

Or, put it another way, what's the cost of dredging up 1 kilogram of deep sea mud and bringing it to market? $10? $100? $1000?  I'm not sure how expensive that is, but it's expensive. And yet, I wouldn't pay a dollar for it, and neither would you.

When figuring out the proper price of something, you'd do well to almost entirely ignore the production cost. Production cost will tend to follow the market price, not the other way around.

[ElectricMucus]

Production costs matter because of competition. And the mining market is highly competitive, though not as competitive as it could be.
Of course with the infamous example of deep sea mud, competition can only take place within the realm of demand. Given a certain demand more competition to fill the demand results in lower prices and verse visa.

However since Bitcoin is not prone to consumption like for example gold or grain it's cumulative production cost are what ultimately matter. There is the factor of lost coins which will limit that influence in the future but currently that influence is just marginal.
Another factor and that is what ultimately is the reason for bitcoins volatility is the demand for bitcoin is expressed not in the absolute value on a individual basis but the fraction of total and currently existing coins.

[flynn]

There are as many upward trends as there are downward ones anyway.

[runeks]

Now that's a dump!