Bitcoin Forum

 Just starting thread. Kexkey won last contest.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1341763.0


picks closed for now

+13.1 = blindminer    < notice format lets me click and drag easy

This round it must be inside your range  so the pick above +13.1  gives you +13.10 to +13.19

I have altered eligibility rules only one account person but the account no longer need to be before 10-31-2015

the account needs to be on or  before 12-1-2015.

it need 30 posts minimum and I will read the posts to see if they make sense.

I have 0.8 in funds to give away this gets us very close to the ½ ing



Picks open at block 1416
Picks close at block  816

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:   172,797,636,370 (+19.90%)
Adjust time:   After 1952 Blocks, About 12.9 days -------------- open at 1416  close at 816
Hashrate(?):   1,117,472,325 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.5 minutes
3 blocks: 28.5 minutes
6 blocks: 57.0 minutes
Updated:   9:5 (1.6 minutes ago)









below was the last set of picks.

so a pick in this round would look like the ones below



- 1.2 = philipma1957  >>>>>>  first pick if it wins i will roll it back in


 +6.9 = fr4nkthetank
 +8.0  = ACAB
 +8.1  = vapourminer
 +9.0  =  lolxxxx
 +9.1  = adaseb
 +9.6  = Psi
+10.0 =  Swordsoffreedom
+10.5 = pusttiu

+10.9 = indiemax

+11.0 = Lituation
+11.5 = Last of the V8s
+11.8 = wpt1wpt1
+11.9 = sebbysebbybinx
+12.0 = cakir
+12.1 = valkir
+12.7 = flikflak
+12.9 = tertius993
+13.1 = blindminer

+13.3 = edonkey
+13.5 = HerbPean
+14.1 = alfacro
+14.4 = vortexz
+14.5 = d57heinz
+14.8 = alh
+15.0 = ingiltere
+15.3 = Tmdz
+15.5 = wlefever
+15.9 = Biodom
+16.0 = zebedee
+16.1 = VirosaGITS
+16.2 = kama
+16.4 = Notlist3d
+16.5 = mwizard
+17.0 = ezeminer
+17.5 = tlhIlwI
+18.0 = DanDan  
+18.7 = lanfeusst
+18.8 = radiumsoup
+19.0 = RichBC
+19.5 = mavericklm
+19.9 = Kexkey
+20.9 = skuser

Here are previous jumps below:


      ------------Difficulty History-------

Date-------   Difficulty---------   Change ----   Hash Rate
Feb 07 2016   144,116,447,847   20.06%   1,031,625,717 GH/s


Jan 26 2016   120,033,340,651   5.89%   859,232,121 GH/s
Jan 13 2016   113,354,299,801   9.12%   811,421,684 GH/s
Dec 31 2015   103,880,340,815   11.16%   743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796    - -   18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900    8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643    10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180    ----  5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015   62,253,982,450    2.25%   445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015   60,883,825,480    0.12%   435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015   60,813,224,039    2.49%   435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015   59,335,351,234    4.17%   424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455    4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015   54,256,630,328    2.95%   388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015   52,699,842,409    0.81%   377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015   52,278,304,846    2.35%   374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303    3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931    -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355    4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154    -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245    2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018    0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513    -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688    5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645    -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951    1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317    5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962    7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895    -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056    8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017    3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307    -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271    -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328    1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252    10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265    2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026    0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924    16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124    8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902    15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039    20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941    5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558    8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979    3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371    24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014   13,462,580,115    14.51%   96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014   11,756,551,917    12.44%   84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014   10,455,720,138    18.10%   74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014   8,853,416,309      10.66%   63,375,223 GH/s
© 2013-2014 BitcoinWisdom.com

i would like to enter.  when can i give you my pick?

All the info is in the first thread.

Picks open at block 1416
Picks close at block  816

Bitwisdom Starting the week:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:    174,664,592,904 (+21.20%)
Adjust time:    After 1907 Blocks, About 12.3 days
Hashrate(?):    1,156,850,727 GH/s


Price around 376.  Hopefully price does a little jump during this difficulty that would be nice.

It  is pretty obvious that some very big farms are building up here.  I still find that bitmaintech is holding on to more then 24,000 coins

https://blockchain.info/address/1KwA4fS4uVuCNjCtMivE7m5ATbv93UZg8V

https://blockchain.info/address/1AgtvfXJSHnxS2xKvprTYxfViWBkiMgdf1


between the addresses above.

Crazy how they have millions in a single btc address wow.  I would be spreading my funds around in a bunch of addys in case something happened...


Anyway mining is still going nuts and there is no ceiling in sight, havling is not that far off either.  I would call this a bit of a hash war seeing the huge amounts of network power going online.  So I guess the mega miners claim their spot in the network and they have such cheap electricity and efficient chips that they can take the diff increase and then lose half their revenue at halving. 

Right now I do not know what to guess.

But I am a 10-12 thousand usd guy.

My mix is 1/3 in coins 1/3 in gear 1/3 cash.

I was going to do a third group buy on the avalon6s but I am not so sure.

I was thinking about Phillip's 3rd Avalon6 group buy, but things are looking quite "un-rosy" for me. My electricity price of about $.10/KWh is just not going to cut it anymore. I'll throttle my SP20 down a bit further, but that's just a month or two delaying action. 

If the two folks that seem to know what's up with Bitfury are right, and not outright lying, Bitfury has NOT received their first full wafer of 14nm chips (i.e. something larger than samples). Supposedly they get those late this month. That means we have not yet seen a spike resulting from a significant deployment of Bitfury 14nm ASICs.

The most recent hash rate increases are clearly real and likely here to stay. While it would be nice to think the most recent 20% increase will be followed by a small one, I see hash rate, and hence difficulty rising right on up to the halving. I don't expect that they will all be 20%, but there aren't any negative changes on the horizon that I see. 

Just one mans speculation late on a Sunday afternoon in Minnesota.

You guys see the huge spike on Bitcoinwisdom?

Also looks like we finished again at +21%, probably 50% of the day was on the old diff however.

It has been hovering at 20-21% all day, so this might be another scary adjustment. I don't see under 10% happening this change.

Miners are biting a bullet right now, and it isn't getting any easier  :-X

These are major farms being tossed up.

If bitfury is not doing this then it will happen again when they do it.

We are looking at 1600 ph real fast . Maybe more like 2000 ph.

Interesting on them holding.  I like that much better then trading all of them in.  That is my fear is these new operations need to pay off cost's and dump every single bit into fiat.

It would keep price down if it is being sold in massive quantity.  I hope they all hold a decent amount though vs trading for fiat on all.


One thing I also wonder is antpool keeps tx fees.  Anyone have an idea what address they go to or how much they have made through just holding tx fees?

So the Holiday has started but will there be any respite? I am far from certain and the early indications are not giving much away. We had a +20% increase but I think the run rate going out of the period was around +30% so I think the starting point is for this period is around +10%. Itnow depends on when and how much Hash get's added? If I had to guess now I would go for +15%.  :) As they say, we will see.


Rich

Having given this a bit more thought i now know for certain why they throttled on and off.   out of the Feb 07 2016   144,116,447,847   20.06%   1,031,625,717 GH/s   as reported by bitcoinwisdom  we can look at the bitcoinity graph and add up china pools.. they have in total 895 ph/1031 ph so that is pushing 87% of the network now

HaD they turned that all on at once it would have def 51% the network or worse.. when all this started to come online we werent even close to 500 peta yet.  

ALSO i dont know the math behind it exatcly but im sure it made them more coins by turning on in phases rather than just all at once.  Looks like maybe a war between china pools this time LMAO

Best Regards
d57heinz

well the see saw stopped but now it is just a hill going upwards! LOL!

Well I paused the group buy for avalon6's as they don't make a lot of sense to buy at the moment.

My mix is ⅓ gear ⅓ coins ⅓ cash.  and I will mine and watch results for a while.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:   173,409,162,590 (+20.33%)
Adjust time:   After 1719 Blocks, About 11.0 days
Hashrate(?):   1,164,486,252 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.6 minutes
6 blocks: 55.2 minutes
Updated:   19:35 (1.8 minutes ago)


Oh 1 sane day  148 blocks today  the lowest total since jan 22 or 21

https://blockchain.info/blocks/1454891830291

397448 (Main Chain)   2016-02-08 23:47:48
397301 (Main Chain)   2016-02-08 00:07:57


148 the best day since Jan 21


 http://btc.blockr.io/charts



https://i.imgur.com/kDUq9qg.png

The thing to consider to is we are gaining during a Chinese holiday.  I was not expecting that.  I thought during holiday we might get a little bit of a slow down.

I see two possibilities either people worked through it which is possible, but not very likely.  Or possibly some operations put in a lot knowing there was a holiday.   I hope it's the second one and they planned extra hash for holiday,  and maybe after it will slow down on next difficulty. 

Or we have a new scary high bar on difficulty changes.  One would think close to 20 is not sustainable.   I don't know what to think on some of it.

Whatever the reason, 20% plus difficulty jumps and sub-$380 BTC prices make me a sad panda.  I was also expecting a slow down for Lunar New Year, but it's like difficulty is on a one way rocket ride to the moon...

I  wonder if these mines got the holiday's off looking at blocks.  If they did they put in some machines before holiday that is for sure.   I keep hoping the next one will be better.  But I am unsure at this point what  to expect.

Hate to say this but Holiday or not this one is looking pretty horrid. It is of course too early to see a reliable trend as we have only had one full Day but...

We came into the period with a surplus after the correction of about +10%, so that was always going to be the minimum increase. The run rate of all the Blocks so far this period is +16% and increasing. The run rate half way through Today is twice that at +32%, so still plenty of scope for variance but the signs are that more hash has already been added and plenty of time to add more. We will know more by the end of the Day.


Rich

when 148 blocks is the best day in 19 days It means we spanned a Diff jump at least one.

In this case 2 Jumps

Jan 21 -133 blocks ----Jan26--5.89%-------------- Feb--7 -- 20.06%--------------- every day over 148 until Feb 8

I am not sure we have had A streak this bad since I started these threads in summer of 2014.

I was mocked alot for calling for a slow down back then.


 It was a good call, but now I see what d57heinz sees in terms of diff growth lots of it.

  It could be a bad thing or maybe it means coins will need to catch up.

bitmaintech is hoarding coins

https://blockchain.info/address/1KwA4fS4uVuCNjCtMivE7m5ATbv93UZg8V

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1355216.msg13795222#msg13795222


they started holding coin from gear  sales right when  diff went up back in Nov.  and we were wondering about the diff see saw moves.

To me it looks like they are making a move here and are pushing out tons of gear to self mine.  I think they feel it is their best move.  Since the ½ ing is coming.

I really wish was wrong. but the pattern of coin withdrawals exactly matches when hash rate started going up and down a lot.

I used to say it was Chinese ghost cities sparing power on and off. Half kidding but hoping for some info to leak.

based on bitmaintech deciding hoard coins and basically not do much for customers they probably are the main cause of this growth.

If they get free power and dirt cheap gear I think they will grow this more.

Yea it does suck sometimes to be the one to bear the bad news.. At first it wasnt such a big deal.. price was keep up with diff.. actually leading the charge.. But now it seems to have stagnated a bit.. Didnt drop like i thought but we not out of the woods yet on that.. Im sure we will see some up action closer to halving just not sure when that will be.. I thought we was going to be alright for abit there but now we have hit a new 8 hour high of over 1.4 peta.. not sure exact as the graph is cut off again.. (climbing to fast i guess :-\)  http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png

ive officially shut down most of my gear.. I put my s4's on my own solo pool just for shits and giggles to see if i can hit anything .. Its been about 6 months now since they hit one.. hoping they hit one sooner than later!  Im also solo mining eth on my hd7970.. that is very profitable atm if you dont know. My 18 mh/s rakes in with 180 watts power use .. 77.38$ per month gross.

Best Regards
d57heinz

If it makes you feel better you are not being the bearer of bad news for most.  I think it's already sit in.   I had to condense my miners as price I was not making as much on previous gen as I wanted.  So.... not fun but I'm in process of doing it.

Hopefully we see the trend of double digit go down on difficulty changes.  But it's hard to speculate on it.  And price.... I just want over 400 right now and I would be happy to see a move up.   But it's been a slow ride.

Where do you get that graph?

well I have A free power s-7  and 4 avalon6s at 9.7 cents until may 1

 so I am hashing 17th at 4000 watts which is 300 usd a month.

my gear stops profit at may 1 when power price goes up.

I need coins to rise hard before may 1.

If they don't I turn off all the avalon6's and mine the free power s-7

Looks like another +20% day is upon us. We got a break for 1 day and now the hashrate is back up again.

Yes agreed I think it will probably be well over +20% I think it could be +25%  :(


Rich

Great.

Ending the day again with 175 blocks being found.

interesting to see how many 20% jumps will be done

If you are looking to get rid of some of that equipment in May, I potentially would be interested in some of it.  Of course, alot can happen between now and then.

Wow.. if we hit 25 that would be crazy.  A growth of 1/4 of hash rate in one period.  That is a huge if they can do it.

Bitwisdom is still above 20:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:    173,900,300,185 (+20.67%)
Adjust time:    After 1531 Blocks, About 9.6 days
Hashrate(?):    1,197,415,073 GH/s

Price hanging around 273.

Sorry was away for a bit.. here is the main site with lots of good graphs.. just click on each graph for an updated view.   seems the home page only update once a day i think  once you click a graph just have to click the back button there is no other way to get back otherwise lol  it needs a link to go back.

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/

Best Regards
d57heinz

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/growth.png

This one is the scary one to me now.. It will take some time for the 30 day avg growth rate to get back to near 0   look how many months it took to crank it up there. currently avg over 30 day period .9 % per day. i think there is possibility of 1.5 - 1.7 exa soon.. idk but this is just crazy


best regards
d57heinz

I will short list you.



@ d57Heinz

I think we will do 20 % at least two more times possibly 3 more times.

The good is all gear older then the s-7 is going to drop off.
We had over 400 ph in gear that was pre s-7
All of it will not be worth using.

Late night update from Minnesota (USA):

Bitcoin Difficulty:    144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:    176,532,440,090 (+22.49%)
Adjust time:    After 1482 Blocks, About 9.1 days
Hashrate(?):    1,237,126,110 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 8.8 minutes
3 blocks: 26.4 minutes
6 blocks: 52.7 minutes
   
Updated:    1:5 (5.2 minutes ago)

BTC Price: $375

Not looking so good for the "Mining Team" at +22.5% !!!  :(

This going to get old real quick.......

in theory based ont he calculator there is profit even at 300B difficulty and above

because one s7 consume only $27 fo farm running at 0.03 cent, and 45 for farm runnign at 0.05, per month

and 1 s7 do $90 per month at 300B difficulty....so no wonder it is rising like that

Yes it would have been more except that the last block was 53 Minutes, it's almost as if someone is fiddling it....

Anyway we are carrying on up The Run rate so far this period is now up to 18.8% and there seems to be another step up in the Daily rate which will push things higher. Not sure that all the workers are drinking enough?  :)


Rich

Yeah someone is adding more hashrate.

I wonder if it's more then "someone"  I think possibly it could be multiple companies.  For it to be so much hashing power and over multiple changes, very likely it could be multiple.

Only time will tell.  But it's interesting to watch and almost a little hard to watch even.

Well if a farm hash 100 ph in s-7 running at 30mega watts  which is 3 cents power it turns profit at a diff of 743

  daily profit is 13,000 dollars the total profit is 6.5 million.  I projected a 20% growth rate  and the diff would go to about 743 right at the ½ ing

So if the goal is to grow at 20% until the ½ ing   at 3 cent power you show a profit on paper.

Are picks open now?

Bitcoin Difficulty:   144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:   176,260,605,764 (+22.30%)
Adjust time:   After 1377 Blocks, About 8.4 days
Hashrate(?):   1,170,946,689 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.8 minutes
3 blocks: 26.2 minutes
6 blocks: 52.5 minutes

No wonder it's so hot outside right now, it's the heat from all the miners being turned on around the world!  200G difficulty here we come!

We should start a thread where everyone buys in and guesses the difficulty at the halving, closest without going over wins the pot.

22 percent ouch... this one is going to hurt again no doubt.  BTC up just a bit at 380 so no huge jump but at least not going down.

I really think value is just as big of issue as difficulty.  We need more value from coins to keep a lot of operations going.  I downsized some as current profits on old gen I just was making to little.  It made for some great deals for free/super cheap electricity.   I also sold a few current and have some cash if it drops... I jump in with it.   But if not eventually I buy more miners again with it.  

So changed my position just a little to see what next few weeks do.  I wanted some cash to invest out of my mining operations if there is drop.

Haha!  I think next 6-9 months are unpredictable.  Particularly next 5 months, with new miners, blocks reward halving, (hopefully) blocksize-limit-drama getting fixed and scalability tweaks being implemented, it's so hard to predict what's going to happen with the difficulty as well as on the bitcoin price.

Your thread would be a gamblers thread.  ;)

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:   176,328,234,415 (+22.35%)
Adjust time:   After 1346 Blocks, About 8.2 days >>>>>>>>>> we open at 1216
Hashrate(?):   1,192,065,789 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.7 minutes
3 blocks: 26.2 minutes
6 blocks: 52.4 minutes
Updated:   23:5 (4.2 minutes ago)

good luck  but this is a no brainer  as +16% is optimistic

Bitcoin Difficulty:    144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:    177,297,312,222 (+23.02%)
Adjust time:    After 1311 Blocks, About 7.9 days
Hashrate(?):    1,207,621,354 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 8.7 minutes

brutal

so do we open after 1416 to go as in 1st post or 1216 as just now? think it's justa typo...

Breakeven point for S7 like machine with purchase costs at $100/THs,5 cents electricity, and 150 days ROI (till halving) is somewhere at 1.5 exahash. If the hardware producers can setup one THs at costs of about $50, which I believe they can, breakeven point moves to 2.3 exahash, about 300mil in difficulty terms. Plenty of space.

Thank for taking screenshot that shows about how I feel.  Holy crap.... that should not be able to even happen.  Ouch on network size feels like it has growing pains seeing so many so quick.... some people sending transaction would have got quickest confirmations ever if someone was waiting on payment.

Yes it always seems to me that Hash that get's added during the Day in China (8 Hours ahead of GMT / UK time) shows up as a big increase in the Daily rate when I first look in the Morning.

Today's run rate, with far too blocks to judge at the moment, is sky high at +50%. It will settle to a lower level, there will be some longer Block times, but I think a fair amount more Hash has been added this Morning....


Rich

Your point about happening during China day is troubling.  I thought the China new year would slow it down for a few day's but seems I have been wrong.  How serious does China take holiday's such as this at factories?  I'm starting to wonder some big BTC ones worked through it.

Wish we had people near these BTC miner factories to tell us info from there.   Seems to be  a lot of secrecy in it.

From what I know it's a very big event, I usually get an email from a couple of people I buy from in China reminding me that there will be no response / emails during CNY. The Festival is officially 23 days long but I suspect  the workers in the "Mines" are back well before then.


Rich

Yep I am getting old

picks were supposed to open at 600 and close at 1200


that would be 2016 -  600 = 1416 for open

and  2016 - 1200 = 816 for close

for some reason unknown to myself (at 59 too old is a poor reason)

I was thinking we start at 1216

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:   176,853,772,569 (+22.72%)
Adjust time:   After 1284 Blocks, About 7.7 days    >> I  should have said 1416 not 1216
Hashrate(?):   1,207,789,669 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.7 minutes
3 blocks: 25.9 minutes
6 blocks: 51.9 minutes
Updated:   7:10 (1.4 minutes ago)

This contest will be started at 1216.
So since I made a moron mistake
 I will toss in an extra something for the prize.
It will end at 816 so the end time will be the same.

We have 23 blocks to go.

Phil, don't be rude with yourself. There is no big deal about it.

We all do mistake ;-)

"If you never make mistakes then you are not on the frontier of discovery, for there is where mistakes are made all the time."
-Neil deGrasse Tyson

Pluto is a planet!! :D




and we have 7 blocks to start picks

Today looks like its going to be another record breaking day. Currently we are at +40%, so with the +20% increase last week this is major hashpower.

OK I am completely confused about when Picks open & Close?  :) In terms of Block Numbers I had expected.
 
Open Block Number 397751 (Which was ages ago)
Close Block Number 398351

Am I right in thinking that we are now?

Open Block Number 397951
Close Block Number 398351


Rich

Yeah I saw that tweet this week.

It's a good one, I like Neil !

1216 blocks to go means block number 397951 for the start

816 blocks to go means block number 398351 for the end


Now you got me going  397952 for the start translates to 1216 on bitcoinwisdom

https://i.imgur.com/qDx9hos.png

It's like an accelerated Moore's law, we're seeing the network grow at an unprecedented rate, it's amazing to watch.  Would be cool to figure out how many new machines are being turned on around the world each minute.

It appears that someone is looking to corner the market on mining.

I suspect multiple 1 cent power farms in China

running huge amount of 300-400 dollar (build cost) s-7's

I think the goal is to maintain a growth rate over 15% until the ½ ing

 So I see a 2000ph hashing ability  with over  300 diff.



Well we are open


and I will start with


-1.2 = philipma1957 ____  I am hoping for a natural disaster to destroy all the new farms

seconded
but i fear:
+25.0 = Last of the V8s

thanks for running this

Well hopefully there aren't more surprise adjustments... right?

+23.0 = ezeminer

+19.8 = Biodom

just a glimmer of hope...

+24.9 = cakir

I was gonna pick +25 :(

%25 looks too optimistic for me. :D

+30.0 = ingiltere

Bitwisdom:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:    180,590,959,452 (+25.31%)
Adjust time:    After 1178 Blocks, About 6.8 days
Hashrate(?):    1,276,123,147 GH/s

1/4 change in difficulty in one change possibly.  Wow is that number above scary to me.   I don't want to see anything close to there.

Price still hanging a little under 380... so still are not getting the bump in price we really need.  Something has to happen I think, I'm just not sure what will it will be. I think it will be huge in a good or bad way.  Not sure which way it will go yet.

Well bitmaintech is still holding 23000 plus coins make it 24000


https://blockchain.info/address/1KwA4fS4uVuCNjCtMivE7m5ATbv93UZg8V

they knew to hold coins as soon as diff sky rocketed .  I think they are making a play to  have more hash power then anyone

and also push btc price over 650 btc then dump.

What does holding coins have to do with the difficulty skyrocketing? I just don't understand what they are trying to do by holding coins and not withdrawing.

If they knew this they could be betting on a rise in bitcoin price.  Bitcoin price really needs to go up to match difficulty jumps.  We have not got it yet, but we hope we do.  If they knew in advance there would be 20+ jumps they might hold coins hoping for a bump in price before selling.

So I think it makes it appear they knew these jumps were coming.  At least is what I get out of it.

well if they are the ones grabbing all the hash via cheap power and cheap s-7's

I think they are.  but WTF do I know?

They started to hoard coins when hash rate started jumping up and down in the fall.

So lets say they knew bit fury would have the 14-16 nm chips.

But bitmaintech could get a 1 cent power deal from Jan 1 to June 1

so setup mines and test them in the fall .  The big swings up and down.

the big power deal come son in Jan hash like a mofo and hold your coins.

with rate doing 120 140 180 then 210 then 240  bitfury's chips do not look too good  to us if they arrive with diff of 240 or 275.

unless coins are 650 .

So bitfury's back money people may pump btc to 650 or 700 just to  make sales survive .

coins are are say  700 and bitmaintech goes boom selling off a ton of coins.  even if it does not lower price and hurt bitfury

bitmaintech still scores.  now the above fits the facts so far.  so sit back and watch the big players take some swings at each other over the next 3 to 5 months.

I am playing this 3 ways. ⅓ coins ⅓ cash ⅓ gear   about 4000 usd worth of each.

this give me various moves and with me at 33% cash even a nut job crazy flatline I will still have something the 33% cash.

I can't even ask the cats for their guess. When I try, they both hide under the couch.

With this brutal difficulty trend, I feel like joining them  :'(

+33 =pusttiu

+29 = alfacro

+22 = Amph

+27=psi

Crazy looking at past difficulty. We went from Jan 27, 2015 to Nov 11, 2015 (41.93 percent) with less difficulty change then we will have in this and the last and this difficulty change.

That is just crazy go for almost 2015 with less then these 2 changes.  I just don't know what to think about all this hash.

+26.1 = blindminer

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:   179,039,619,797 (+24.23%)
Adjust time:   After 1075 Blocks, About 6.3 days -------- picking ends at 816 about 30-35 hours
Hashrate(?):   1,265,752,204 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.4 minutes
3 blocks: 25.2 minutes
6 blocks: 50.4 minutes








Well we are open
and I will start with


-1.2 = philipma1957 ____  I am hoping for a natural disaster to destroy all the new farms

+19.8 = Biodom


+22.0 = Amph


+23.0 = ezeminer

+24.4 = Chris_Sabian

+24.9 = cakir
+25.0 = Last of the V8s


+26.1 = blindminer


+27.0 = psi


+29.0 = alfacro


+30.0 = ingiltere


+33.0 = pusttiu

+25.7 = sebbysebbybinx

+24.4 = Chris_Sabian


Thanks for running this game and the solo club.  It was fun.  Too bad it had to end early.

you do not  have enough posts   to qualify

 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1356223.msg13804414#msg13804414

+27.7 = Mikestang

Price is over $380 this morning, but it's having trouble getting back to $400.  At least it's been holding steady here and not dropping any more.  I'd like to see up back in the mid-$400s, makes me feel better about paying for electricity.

+27.1 = flikflak

thanks for doing this  ;)

Well we are open
and I will start with


-1.2 = philipma1957 ____  I am hoping for a natural disaster to destroy all the new farms

+19.8 = Biodom


+22.0 = Amph


+23.0 = ezeminer

+24.4 = Chris_Sabian

+24.9 = cakir
+25.0 = Last of the V8s


+26.1 = blindminer


+27.0 = psi
+27.1 = flikflak

+27.7 = Mikestang

+28.0 = icey            +28 for me Smiley  = wrong    @ icey please correct post

+29.0 = alfacro


+30.0 = ingiltere


+33.0 = pusttiu

I'll go with

+26.0 = VRobb

Although I hope phillipma1957 is right I don't think so... :(

EDIT - Ah, didn't get on the forums until 12/18/15, so I'm out by a couple weeks!  Catch you all next round?

+28 for me :)

yeah I will update it next round.  and move  start day to   12/21/2015  post wise you are fine.



 

please correct this  to:


 +28.0 = icey

+19.0 = vapourminer

Well we are open
and I will start with


-1.2 = philipma1957 ____  I am hoping for a natural disaster to destroy all the new farms

+19.0 = vapourminer
+19.8 = Biodom

+21.9 = zebedee
+22.0 = Amph


+23.0 = ezeminer

+24.4 = Chris_Sabian

+24.9 = cakir
+25.0 = Last of the V8s


+26.1 = blindminer


+27.0 = psi
+27.1 = flikflak

+27.7 = Mikestang

+28.0 = icey            +28 for me     :) Smiley  = wrong    @ icey please correct post

+29.0 = alfacro


+30.0 = ingiltere


+33.0 = pusttiu

+21.9 = zebedee

Thanks

+20.5 = Brob12321

And another 20% rise in difficulty... honestly I'm not so comfortable with that. If it goes on, we will see the halving in May (not June/July).

Trouble is we have already had one Halving between November 2015 and Now with the Halving still to come. :(


Rich

+18.7 = tertius993

Well we are open
and I will start with


-1.2 = philipma1957 ____  I am hoping for a natural disaster to destroy all the new farms



+18.7 = tertius993

+19.0 = vapourminer

+19.8 = Biodom

+20.5 = Brob12321

+21.9 = zebedee
+22.0 = Amph


+23.0 = ezeminer

+24.4 = Chris_Sabian

+24.9 = cakir
+25.0 = Last of the V8s


+26.1 = blindminer


+27.0 = psi
+27.1 = flikflak

+27.7 = Mikestang

+28.0 = icey            +28 for me     :) Smiley  = wrong    @ icey please correct post

+29.0 = alfacro


+30.0 = ingiltere


+33.0 = pusttiu



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:   176,841,263,642 (+22.71%)
Adjust time:   After 941 Blocks, About 5.5 days -------------- picking ends at 816
Hashrate(?):   1,217,894,269 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.5 minutes
3 blocks: 25.4 minutes
6 blocks: 50.8 minutes
Updated:   



https://blockchain.info/blocks

398227 (Main Chain)   2016-02-13 12:34:12

398152 (Main Chain)   2016-02-13 00:00:49


76 blocks in the time it takes to do 75    so at this pace we will do 146 for the day

+22.5 = redhack

Bitcoin Difficulty:   144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:   176,451,800,060 (+22.44%)
Adjust time:   After 931 Blocks, About 5.5 days
Hashrate(?):   1,221,465,918 GH/s

Dude, you need to learn to math :)  The probability the halving occurs in July is extremely high, I'd put it at over 90%.  Unless you think 20% can continue until July, that is.  I don't.

-50 for me, hehe

I'd like mining to be profitable again, the hashes that we have are no longer earning like they used to. C'mon Bitmain, stop making those devices.

Not good again.


http://i65.tinypic.com/2mcags2.png

Finally got one of the cats out from under the couch.

+20.2 = edonkey

+21.6 = sanandreas


I think it's very good. We don't wait for transactions to accepted.

Things are bad but something must have gone wrong at the time of that snapshot as average Blocktime over that period was in the 10 Minute region.

Rich

Well we are open
and I will start with

-50.0 = Dekker3D

-1.2 = philipma1957 ____  I am hoping for a natural disaster to destroy all the new farms



+18.7 = tertius993

+19.0 = vapourminer

+19.8 = Biodom
+20.2 = edonkey
+20.5 = Brob12321
+21.6 = sanandreas
+21.9 = zebedee
+22.0 = Amph

+22.5 = redhack
+23.0 = ezeminer

+24.4 = Chris_Sabian

+24.9 = cakir
+25.0 = Last of the V8s


+26.1 = blindminer


+27.0 = psi
+27.1 = flikflak

+27.7 = Mikestang

+28.0 = icey            +28 for me     :) Smiley  = wrong    @ icey please correct post

+29.0 = alfacro


+30.0 = ingiltere


+33.0 = pusttiu



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:   175,115,606,121 (+21.51%)
Adjust time:   After 915 Blocks, About 5.5 days -------picking ends at 816
Hashrate(?):   1,204,167,279 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.6 minutes
3 blocks: 25.8 minutes
6 blocks: 51.5 minutes
Updated:   12:10 (2.8 minutes ago)






https://blockchain.info/blocks

398253 (Main Chain)   2016-02-13 17:07:34


398152 (Main Chain)   2016-02-13 00:00:49


102 blocks made in the time for 103  so we are at  a  143 pace for the day!

this below was earlier in the day

76 blocks in the time it takes to do 75    so at this pace we will do 146 for the day

+20.6 = Ab-Soul


-50 LOL! I see what you did here. :)

The network is intended to operate such that one block is solved every 10 minutes, it's not about convenience of getting tx confirmed.  If you want fast/instant confirms there are plenty of altcoins designed around that philosophy, but with bitcoin I would tend to agree that it is "bad", at least for anyone with less than ~10PH at their disposal.

+21.0 = dukeneptun

Good luck with that increase individual miners.

+16.7 = HerbPean

Thanks Phil !

+22.2 = Valkir

+23.5% indiemax  :o ;D

Your words in God's ears.Of course a halving in May is rubbish. I know, my scenario is a bit very dark, because I'm shocked of the double 20% jumps in a row. But we are at block 398266 and had 378266 on 10^th of Oct. 2015 (thats four months ago or 126 days to find 20000 blocks). That equals 159 blocks a day. We have 21735 blocks to go, to hit 1^st of July (139 days from now) that would be an average of 156 blocks a day -> so a halving in June is very possible with an average of 9% difficulty increase.

Well we are open
and I will start with

-50.0 = Dekker3D

-1.2 = philipma1957 ____  I am hoping for a natural disaster to destroy all the new farms

+16.7 = HerbPean

+18.7 = tertius993

+19.0 = vapourminer

+19.8 = Biodom
+20.2 = edonkey
+20.5 = Brob12321
+21.0 = dukeneptun
+21.6 = sanandreas
+21.9 = zebedee
+22.0 = Amph
+22.2 = Valkir
+22.5 = redhack
+23.0 = ezeminer
+23.5% indiemax
+24.4 = Chris_Sabian

+24.9 = cakir
+25.0 = Last of the V8s


+26.1 = blindminer


+27.0 = psi
+27.1 = flikflak

+27.7 = Mikestang

+28.0 = icey            +28 for me     :) Smiley  = wrong    @ icey please correct post

+29.0 = alfacro


+30.0 = ingiltere


+33.0 = pusttiu



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:   175,550,086,511 (+21.81%)
Adjust time:   After 879 Blocks, About 5.2 days --------    picking ends at 816
Hashrate(?):   1,246,866,949 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.5 minutes
3 blocks: 25.6 minutes
6 blocks: 51.2 minutes
Updated:   
                                                             





https://blockchain.info/blocks

398289 (Main Chain)   2016-02-13 20:45:16


398152 (Main Chain)   2016-02-13 00:00:49


138 blocks made in the time for 123  so we are at  a  160 pace for the day!


only 63 blocks to go!!

Well we are open
and I will start with

-50.0 = Dekker3D

-1.2 = philipma1957 ____  I am hoping for a natural disaster to destroy all the new farms

+16.7 = HerbPean

+18.7 = tertius993

+19.0 = vapourminer

+19.8 = Biodom
+20.2 = edonkey
+20.5 = Brob12321
+21.0 = dukeneptun
+21.6 = sanandreas
+21.9 = zebedee
+22.0 = Amph

+22.1 = ACAB
+22.2 = Valkir
+22.5 = redhack
+23.0 = ezeminer
+23.5% indiemax
+24.4 = Chris_Sabian

+24.9 = cakir
+25.0 = Last of the V8s


+26.1 = blindminer


+27.0 = psi
+27.1 = flikflak

+27.7 = Mikestang

+28.0 = icey            +28 for me     :) Smiley  = wrong    @ icey please correct post

+29.0 = alfacro


+30.0 = ingiltere


+33.0 = pusttiu



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:   175,550,086,511 (+21.81%)
Adjust time:   After 879 Blocks, About 5.2 days --------    picking ends at 816
Hashrate(?):   1,246,866,949 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.5 minutes
3 blocks: 25.6 minutes
6 blocks: 51.2 minutes
Updated:   
                                                             





https://blockchain.info/blocks

398289 (Main Chain)   2016-02-13 20:45:16


398152 (Main Chain)   2016-02-13 00:00:49


138 blocks made in the time for 123  so we are at  a  160 pace for the day!


only 63 blocks to go!!

+22.1 = ACAB

I know it's too much for us miners but it's reality. :)

Well it's getting late in the UK and Picks will close around 5 o'Clock Tomorrow Morning, so can't leave it any longer, which is a pity as the run rate is all over the place.


+21.7 = RichBC

+21.3 = DanDan

Last minute predictions. :)

Well we are open
and I will start with

-50.0 = Dekker3D

-1.2 = philipma1957 ____  I am hoping for a natural disaster to destroy all the new farms

+16.7 = HerbPean

+18.7 = tertius993

+19.0 = vapourminer

+19.8 = Biodom
+20.2 = edonkey
+20.5 = Brob12321
+21.0 = dukeneptun
+21.3 = DanDan
+21.6 = sanandreas
+21.7 = RichBC
+21.9 = zebedee
+22.0 = Amph

+22.1 = ACAB
+22.2 = Valkir
+22.5 = redhack
+23.0 = ezeminer
+23.5% indiemax
+24.4 = Chris_Sabian

+24.9 = cakir
+25.0 = Last of the V8s


+26.1 = blindminer


+27.0 = psi
+27.1 = flikflak

+27.7 = Mikestang

+28.0 = icey            +28 for me     :) Smiley  = wrong    @ icey please correct post

+29.0 = alfacro


+30.0 = ingiltere


+33.0 = pusttiu



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:   175,114,423,373 (+21.51%)
Adjust time:   After 862 Blocks, About 5.1 days --------    picking ends at 816
Hashrate(?):   1,232,653,386 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.6 minutes
3 blocks: 25.6 minutes
6 blocks: 51.3 minutes



https://blockchain.info/blocks




398306 (Main Chain)   2016-02-13 23:27:48

398152 (Main Chain)   2016-02-13 00:00:49


155 blocks made in the time for 141 so we are at  a  160 pace for the day!

Well we are open
and I will start with

-50.0 = Dekker3D

-1.2 = philipma1957 ____  I am hoping for a natural disaster to destroy all the new farms

+16.7 = HerbPean

+18.7 = tertius993

+19.0 = vapourminer

+19.8 = Biodom
+20.2 = edonkey
+20.5 = Brob12321
+20.7 = Zz

+21.0 = dukeneptun
+21.3 = DanDan
+21.6 = sanandreas
+21.7 = RichBC
+21.9 = zebedee
+22.0 = Amph

+22.1 = ACAB
+22.2 = Valkir
+22.5 = redhack
+23.0 = ezeminer
+23.5% indiemax
+24.4 = Chris_Sabian

+24.9 = cakir
+25.0 = Last of the V8s


+26.1 = blindminer


+27.0 = psi
+27.1 = flikflak

+27.7 = Mikestang

+28.0 = icey            +28 for me     :) Smiley  = wrong    @ icey please correct post

+29.0 = alfacro


+30.0 = ingiltere


+33.0 = pusttiu



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:   175,114,423,373 (+21.51%)
Adjust time:   After 862 Blocks, About 5.1 days --------    picking ends at 816
Hashrate(?):   1,232,653,386 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.6 minutes
3 blocks: 25.6 minutes
6 blocks: 51.3 minutes



https://blockchain.info/blocks




398307 (Main Chain)   2016-02-13 23:51:14

398152 (Main Chain)   2016-02-13 00:00:49


156 blocks made for the day.

+22.3 = lanfeusst

Did you miss my post? I don't see my name on list.

+17.0 = adaseb

+19.5 = wlefever

Guess you are stuck with -50%.  Hopefully it happens...

Well we are open
and I will start with

-50.0 = Dekker3D

-1.2 = philipma1957 ____  I am hoping for a natural disaster to destroy all the new farms

+16.7 = HerbPean
+17.0 = adaseb
+18.7 = tertius993

+19.0 = vapourminer
+19.5 = wlefever
+19.8 = Biodom
+20.2 = edonkey
+20.5 = Brob12321
+20.6 = Ab-Soul  ------------------ got it now
+20.7 = Zz

+21.0 = dukeneptun
+21.3 = DanDan
+21.6 = sanandreas
+21.7 = RichBC
+21.9 = zebedee
+22.0 = Amph
+22.1 = ACAB
+22.2 = Valkir
+22.3 = lanfeusst
+22.5 = redhack
+23.0 = ezeminer
+23.5% indiemax
+24.4 = Chris_Sabian

+24.9 = cakir
+25.0 = Last of the V8s


+26.1 = blindminer


+27.0 = psi
+27.1 = flikflak

+27.7 = Mikestang

+28.0 = icey            +28 for me     :) Smiley  = wrong    @ icey please correct post

+29.0 = alfacro


+30.0 = ingiltere


+33.0 = pusttiu


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:   175,392,745,887 (+21.70%)
Adjust time:   After 846 Blocks, About 5.0 days   ---------------- 30 blocks to last pick
Hashrate(?):   1,224,121,206 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.5 minutes
3 blocks: 25.5 minutes
6 blocks: 51.0 minutes
Updated:   21:0 (3.8 minutes ago)

no Ab-Soul gets +20.6

and Dekker3D gets -50.0   

and we have a few more blocks to go.

+25.5 = radiumsoup

+17.7 = Kexkey

I thought it was going to go down but looks like I was wrong.  Price has to follow diff now.

Good luck to all!

About nineteen blocks left and picks end

+23.2 = Notlist3d

Thanks!

22.7

I see another batch hitting the "street" before this round is over and pushing it up a bit more.

Well Yesterday ended up a relatively modest +8.3% 156 Blocks and Today is off to a slow start running at only +5%. There is a good chance we end the period under 20% but I am also assuming that we are going to see some more Hash added?

Couple more Blocks to go before Picks Close.


Rich

+20.8 = tss

+21.21 = Dexter770221

+22.4 = alh

I may be a bit late, so drop me if I don't fit. Actually I really pulling for the -50% guess. I wonder how much hash would have to disappear for that to happen?

I am allowing you since I screwed up the start time.


So this was the last pick.

Well we are open
and I will start with

-50.0 = Dekker3D

-1.2 = philipma1957 ____  I am hoping for a natural disaster to destroy all the new farms

+16.7 = HerbPean
+17.0 = adaseb
+18.7 = tertius993

+19.0 = vapourminer
+19.5 = wlefever
+19.8 = Biodom
+20.2 = edonkey
+20.5 = Brob12321
+20.6 = Ab-Soul  ------------------ got it now
+20.7 = Zz
+20.8 = tss
+21.0 = dukeneptun
+21.2 = Dexter770221 -------- corrected from 21.21
+21.3 = DanDan
+21.6 = sanandreas
+21.7 = RichBC
+21.9 = zebedee
+22.0 = Amph
+22.1 = ACAB
+22.2 = Valkir
+22.3 = lanfeusst
+22.4 = alh
+22.5 = redhack
+22.7 = DrG
+23.0 = ezeminer
+23.2 = Notlist3d
+23.5 = indiemax
+24.4 = Chris_Sabian

+24.9 = cakir
+25.0 = Last of the V8s


+26.1 = blindminer


+27.0 = psi
+27.1 = flikflak

+27.7 = Mikestang

+28.0 = icey            +28 for me     :) Smiley  = wrong    @ icey please correct post

+29.0 = alfacro


+30.0 = ingiltere


+33.0 = pusttiu


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:   174,586,577,903 (+21.14%)
Adjust time:   After 794 Blocks, About 4.7 days
Hashrate(?):   1,210,423,336 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.5 minutes
3 blocks: 25.6 minutes
6 blocks: 51.1 minutes
Updated:   5:0 (6.9 minutes ago)




prices are touching 400  keep an eye at the address below


https://blockchain.info/address/1KwA4fS4uVuCNjCtMivE7m5ATbv93UZg8V

+11.2 = tekno

picks have been closed for hours.

missed me

-50.0 = Dekker3D

-1.2 = philipma1957 ____  I am hoping for a natural disaster to destroy all the new farms

+16.7 = HerbPean
+17.0 = adaseb
+17.7 = Kexkey ---------- corrected my miss
+18.7 = tertius993

+19.0 = vapourminer
+19.5 = wlefever
+19.8 = Biodom
+20.2 = edonkey
+20.5 = Brob12321
+20.6 = Ab-Soul  ------------------ got it now
+20.7 = Zz
+20.8 = tss
+21.0 = dukeneptun
+21.2 = Dexter770221 -------- corrected from 21.21
+21.3 = DanDan
+21.6 = sanandreas
+21.7 = RichBC
+21.9 = zebedee
+22.0 = Amph
+22.1 = ACAB
+22.2 = Valkir
+22.3 = lanfeusst
+22.4 = alh
+22.5 = redhack
+22.7 = DrG
+23.0 = ezeminer
+23.2 = Notlist3d
+23.5 = indiemax
+24.4 = Chris_Sabian

+24.9 = cakir
+25.0 = Last of the V8s
+25.5 = radiumsoup --------------- corrected my miss

+26.1 = blindminer


+27.0 = psi
+27.1 = flikflak

+27.7 = Mikestang

+28.0 = icey            +28 for me     :) Smiley  = wrong    @ icey please correct post

+29.0 = alfacro


+30.0 = ingiltere


+33.0 = pusttiu


final picks are above.  note I missed Kexkey and radiumsoup

Price is over 400.  It's currently around 405...if only we could have a jump for more.   With this change and one before it, it's almost like having due to how much hash has been added.  Which I just find as crazy, I know none of my ROI models had 40+ difficulty in 2 periods when we go back a few month's when I did them.

I'm really hoping that we see a big jump.  Little jumps are nice but don't help much when difficulty jumps so much more.

Good to be back over $400, would like to see it back over £300 now.  :) However looking a bit tenuous at the moment.

The Hash Rate seems to have dropped off a bit and there is a Down-wood trend that has emerged over the last 3 Days. If this continues at the same rate we will end up around +15% but all depends on whether some more Hash is put up at some point.?


Rich

The hash rate drop could be due to the adjustment of the miners by big farm. I think the difficulty will keep on rising.

on jan 21 we had a 131 block day

since that day the two lowest block days have been 151 and 150

so for Jan 22 to Feb 14 we have  had an amazing run.


https://i.imgur.com/oXXRISA.png

So if the diff is +16.6% or less, Herbean automatically wins since he chose the closest ?

I've noticed that it's held over $400 for the past two day, was $405.11 when I checked this morning.  Still a strong price, but I would have expected the price to track more with difficulty.  Why can't we get 20% bumps in price every couple weeks? :)

]


Price and Difficulty are not related in anyway. Look at 2014.

no we are doing 1 carry over to .2 prize level

.  I would prefer letting it carry over but when we got to .3 and then .4 we attracted 3 or four attempts to game the system.

So for now I am maxing prize at .2 then the closest wins.

 

    As an aside We have .8 to give away.  that is 16 weeks which gets us close to the ½ing.

 I may add a little more to the giveaway funds if we need to as I would like this contest to reach the ½ing.

Thanks for doing it.  It's always fun to do even though I have not won yet :).

I really do like the carry over system vs closest.  Just makes it a lot more unknown on winner an amount.    But I agree the higher the price the more people will try to game.  You might do something like if carry over is above .3 only people with guesses the previous week can pick.  Would work good stopping some of the gaming, bad thing is it stops people who forgot to put one in or missed it previous week.

I think you got your wish and some farm burned down.

Well another relatively placid +5.5% 152 Block day Yesterday. Not at all sure what is going on here but 4 Days ago the run rate for the period peaked at +20% and since then has been pulling back. We are now at +15% and if this trend continues we could end up around +13%.

Rich

Interesting I would not have seen this coming.  And it happened after Chinese New Years, which is opposite as I thought.  I thought Chinese New Year would slow down speeds but it seems we had more if anything.

Bitwisdom is going down:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:    168,104,132,762 (+16.64%)
Adjust time:    After 494 Blocks, About 3.0 days
Hashrate(?):    1,106,477,610 GH/s

*Edit... have possible scary idea on reason on drop

Batch 10 ship time: ANTMINER S7 BATCH 10 - Shipped out from Feb. 16~20
Currently in China:  4:47 PM ish  Tuesday, February 16, 2016

So think they had employees going through data center and pulling mines to ship out soon?   That could explain a drop... and I hope I'm wrong on it.

I think it's a good theory, makes sense and fits with what we have seen over the last few Days.

Rich

It fit's it pretty darn good to.  They left mining till after Holiday then they started boxing and getting ready to ship.  Hard to tell how many they did lowest price yet 2.1 BTC or around 850.   

They also might have some big bulk customer's to look at PCFLI - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1283287.240 .  Seems his order was held onto till after holiday's.   So small customers an big likely had this in my theory.

Now comes question on if this is true how quick can they fill up the spots with newly produced gear, and do another batch.  Pretty smart for them do a "burn in" test and make good money, then sell and instant make ROI on miners.  Seems like Bitmain cannot lose right now.

Damn if thats true.. that is scary because we dropped off about 100 - 150 ph/s..  if that is one batch that makes sense on the increases we have seen thus far(approx 80 ph per batch.. i think the first ones were smaller batches and now they are selling them as fast as they can be produced) im sure the first batches were smaller in sales but all those that bought had to rebuy just to continue making what they were 2 months ago.. So really i think this theory is solid!. and this is totally driven by bitmain alone.  i think avalon is too high priced and bitfury increased but only from about 60 ph to 120 or so now.  unbelievable!

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-10k.png

Best Regards
d57heinz


Edit>> what i like to see if someone has a list of the dates when bitmain was to ship its miners on the previous batches.. Be nice to see if we can see a correlation in hashrate drop on the network with the expected ship date.

It does not account for 150ph hash drop maybe
  1/5  to ½  o r  25 ph 75ph

My guess is some  of the drop is what you said. And the rest is the zero to one cent power deal has ended.

I had a few ideas of how they could get free power or super low cost power. My thought was they would be able to have longer deal with the super cheap power.

If they have a mobile load tester in the form of ten tractor trailers the current dam in China has decided the dam works and they do not need the load testing service.
The good thing is hash will be a little lower short term but the reality is they gear is "in the field"

So if  we are +17% the truth is we have +25%.

Or we are not 1200ph we are 1300ph to 1350ph with part shipping and part waiting to test another dam.

 there are 5 or 6 big dams being built in china.  So driving a ten to twenty tractor trailers to test the new dam can mean a new spike.
Either way  the real hashrate is around 1350ph.

No question bitmaintech is bigger then anyone.

This is quite funny how much we didn't see that drop coming at the end of this diff. I was sure we would see at least a constant hashrate with no drop at all or even some minor or major increase.

I speculated an avg of 1210 petahash for this Diff and I was the lower guess in the list. A big surprise for me.

Unless someone throw back all the gear that went offline, this will be a rollover !

My past experience makes me guess a push during the last 24 hours or at the start of the new diff. (But hey, this is pure speculation)

Let's enjoy this small breathing time... it's like a small victory in a +15 diff increase... /sarcrams  ;)

Well at least price is still holding over $400, it was over $405 as I wrote this.  Hopefully it can stay above $400, there's something psychologically satisfying about seeing a $4xx price vs. a $3xx price.

Damn! Busy weekend and i forgot a bit about the forum, prices and btc. Nice to have a ''normal'' life :D

Estimated Next Difficulty:    167,053,997,078 (+15.92%)
Adjust time:    After 417 Blocks, About 2.6 days
Hashrate(?):    1,123,946,148 GH/s

looks like is calming the fuck down? at least atm....

Well the trend continues on down. Today looking like being just a 140 Block Day and if this continues we are only going to see a +12% period?

Rich

yeah we could which will mean next jump is  going to be 10% or more.

Any idea why the network went down 10% hashrate? More Russian Datacenter failure?

I was about to ask the exact same question. Which company shut down their miners? What did I miss? Expected increase was 25% 3 days ago but now it's only 15%.

Probably older generation miners dropping off to either be replaced or just simply being taken offline due to inneficiencies.

10% PH so quick could be older generation but i think it would still be a data center. Nobody has 100PH of S3's in the first place so, i'm wondering why exactly and also. Why now? Why not after the next diff increase? The timing doesnt make that much sense.

There are many variables as to why it may have dropped off. Power outages, end of leases, complete overhaul, and some could be attributed to variance. At the end of the day we will never know exactly just have to accept it and it's actually for the better so it's all good lol

Could be a farm that went on fire. The last Thai farm was caused by Arson apparently.

Maybe Bitfury burned down Bitmains farm... or vice versa.

 A Russian raid on Chinese soil or a Chinese raid on Russian soil sounds like a James Bond movie!

Spectre attacks both and Russia and China blame each other

Maybe not S3's but there are a TON of A1 miners in china.  They were pumping them out pretty quick and many brands used A1 chips at one time.

So if they did start pulling A1's off it would make a difference.  If they are doing it ... dont know low price on electricity may still have life on some A1's.

Wow I the predicted difficulty has dropped significantly, seems that the majority of picks will be too high unless the price jumps a bit and allows some miners to turn their machines back on.

next difficulty increase will be very low, you will see :P
maximum 4%

So another quiet Day Yesterday, -4% & 138 Blocks. So the run rate for the Period is +13.62% at the moment and is still trending down with +12% or less looking likely.

Rich

I do thinks that the drop in hashrate could be the fact that BW and Bitfury did try all their gear but now are evaluating the price and the diff.
BW could have mine a little bit and will soon start to sell gear.
Hopefully we will see bitfury gear soon  ;D

Right now price is climbing it is at 415 price on feb 7 was 375

so 375 to 415 = About 10.66%

diff is up About 13.25%

Not so bad.

If price moves to 425 in the next two days  = 13.33%

 and diff stays at 13.25%

 we push or stay even or thread some water.

We miners could use a few like this one.

After reading this which could be fud.. http://bitcoinist.net/virtual-currency-issued-by-pboc-will-not-use-blockchain-technology/

Then looking here i find it interesting that its the china pools that all dropped big time. http://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/hashrate/30d?c=m&t=a

Could be that they had all that old tech in super cheap data halls like phil proposed.. cheap power @ around 1 c.. So they could run that old tech now if they brought down their avg of the entire farm.  So if 1/4 farm is old tech and 3/4 new it would avg out to maybe around .3 or .4 watts a gh.. morenew tech you add the more it drops your avg w/ghs.   Then once you get it to so large or maxed out then you either wait till the old machine dies and replace with new or just outright replace it all which is what we might be seeing here..  This drop was the equivalent of all the old tech dropping at once lol.. around 300 ph   Interesting to say the least!

Best Regards
d57heinz

Yeah it does look like 150 to 200ph dropped off.

Not sure exactly what they did. One guess is as good as another.

Ghost cities .
Load testing for super dam power plants.
A short term  one cent contract from January 22 to Febuary 14 . But the gear is out there and we could see the jump of 150 to 200 ph any given time.
I clock the sales on their btc addy and they are not selling  1000 s-7s a week more like 800 to 900.

So the next 120-150 days should be all over the place.

And the power dam's really are happening one thread I love is haobtc - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1072474.0.   I love Eric's pictures showing a different side of mining, it is much less secret then most companies.

But you will see they built near a power dam, which was very smart.  Once can assume they get it pretty cheap on power.  It's hard to tell how many private operation have great deals on electricity.  I wish it was more like public traded companies with open books.  But that chances are will never happen for most as they remain private companies.

how about this for a guess.  big long holiday chinese new years.   power use drops off as aluminum and big energy users shut down.

the dam has excess power. 

So bitmaintech did multiple 1 cent contracts from Jan 22 to Feb 15…..

 The  power plants said WTF money is money  even if it is only three weeks.

Man, I wish someone would build a hydro station in the mountains behind me so I could get some $0.01 power!  Even if just for a little while, it would be a sweet experiment...

Coming into the home stretch here, looks like it'll be right around 10% increase by the re-target.  I was way off lol but its hard to predict far in advance like I did.

It is going down that is for sure:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:    163,916,409,052 (+13.74%)
Adjust time:    After 211 Blocks, About 1.3 days

I thought for sure we would be in the 20's.  I still wonder if shipping of S7's for  batch 10 has anything to do with it would temporarily reduce hashing as they move centers.   Big guy's in mining like PCFLI are getting shipment after the holiday that ended: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1283287.msg13860532#msg13860532

And if there are more like him it's hard to tell how many sales as I suspect it is a lot with big volume sales, and regular smaller buyers of batch 10.

The downward trend has now flattened with Yesterday being +7.6% 155 Blocks. Run rate for the period is now +13.27% and looks like it will run flat at this rate until the end of the Period.

Rich

This paints a great look at how it went down.  http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png


But now she on full blast again.. Showing 1.3 peta by bitcoind which does coincide with the blue line of 24 hour avg
Edit this one shows it over a longer period   http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-10k.png

Best Regards
d57heinz

Estimated Next Difficulty:    164,396,453,400 (+14.07%)
Adjust time:    After 106 Blocks, About 16.1 hours
Hashrate(?):    1,123,310,757 GH/s

and it goes back up again!

People in S7 thread have been notified on shipping on some of them it sounds like on batch 10.  I still think part of the downward trend is just gear switching locations.  Seems like big and small buyers of Bitmain getting S7's after holiday's there.

not sure if it is whole amount though as I agree that would be a lot of S7's. But none the less it has to be part of the downward trend.  If  I'm right it will go back up pretty soon, but I could be wrong :).  I would like to be in this case.

-50.0 = Dekker3D

-1.2 = philipma1957 ____  I am hoping for a natural disaster to destroy all the new farms

+16.7 = HerbPean
+17.0 = adaseb
+17.7 = Kexkey ---------- corrected my miss
+18.7 = tertius993

+19.0 = vapourminer
+19.5 = wlefever
+19.8 = Biodom
+20.2 = edonkey
+20.5 = Brob12321
+20.6 = Ab-Soul  ------------------ got it now
+20.7 = Zz
+20.8 = tss
+21.0 = dukeneptun
+21.2 = Dexter770221 -------- corrected from 21.21
+21.3 = DanDan
+21.6 = sanandreas
+21.7 = RichBC
+21.9 = zebedee
+22.0 = Amph
+22.1 = ACAB
+22.2 = Valkir
+22.3 = lanfeusst
+22.4 = alh
+22.5 = redhack
+22.7 = DrG
+23.0 = ezeminer
+23.2 = Notlist3d
+23.5 = indiemax
+24.4 = Chris_Sabian

+24.9 = cakir
+25.0 = Last of the V8s
+25.5 = radiumsoup --------------- corrected my miss

+26.1 = blindminer


+27.0 = psi
+27.1 = flikflak

+27.7 = Mikestang

+28.0 = icey            +28 for me     :) Smiley  = wrong    @ icey please correct post

+29.0 = alfacro


+30.0 = ingiltere


+33.0 = pusttiu


final picks are above.  note I missed Kexkey and radiumsoup

 The chances are we carry over.

One of you guys could be the lucky one... especially Dekker3D!!

 ;D

I don't know about that I think that I would pick a snow ball's chance  in h--l over  Dekker3D.

I am thinking I will go back to rollover not ending and try to be very careful about cheaters.
I did link the excitement of the bigger prizes.

I think the rollover is very exciting and may attrack more people in the game, which is cool!  :)

Funny that weather is more predictable than mining difficulty...

looks like a large amount of mining hash slowly shut down in the days after the chinese new year ended.  i am thinking that they are now shipping these units to customers and we shall see ALL of the prior hash rate AND MORE up and running on the network within a week.  this is just the calm before the storm.  20%+ next jump is not outside the realm of whats possible.

I think there is a good chance it's Bitmain on S7's on a decent amount.  Small user's have gotten notices (at least some) on shipping.

And look at big side of it PCFLI's group I like to watch due to being a large quantity ordered. They still claim not to have miners it seems - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1283287.240

Next one will hurt if these all go back online and if bitmain fills up slots with next batches S7's.  The next batch they show shipping as " ANTMINER S7 BATCH 11 - Shipped out from March 1st~5th" so likely they will run those for a small bit of time.

A strong Day yesterday with +20.83% 174 Blocks. Run Rate for the period at +13.8% and will probably rise a little from there. 23 Blocks to go so looks like we will finish up around 11:00 at +14%

How these Periods run never ceases to surprise.  :) I am going to take a look at the hash rate for the Big Farms for the last few Days & see if that reveals anything?


Rich

Great quote!

As a non miner I do enjoy the game and the knowledge base you share

as it gives me a broader insight to where Bitcoin may be heading.

Mining does appear to be a tough game to be in ,so best of luck to all ;D

Well I think we are there with +13.43% but need the official Figure.

Rich

Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
Feb 19 2016   163,491,654,909   13.44%   1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016   144,116,447,847   20.06%   1,031,625,717 GH/s


So we have around 60 bucks/month for one S7 @ $ 0.1/KWh. Ouch, tough stuff for homeminers these days.

I was vaguely wondering if the weather coud be correlated with the hashpower. Sounds crazy, sure.

What if there'd been heavy rains up in Sichuan mountains. Hydro dams have a temporary surplus of power, sell it off cheap to miners?

... hey take it even tinfoil hattier, miners mine more because rain, excess heat from mining causes more rain, miners mine more ...

new thread link
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1369886.msg13937834#msg13937834


So 13.44%  gave us a rollover.

the funny thing is I started picks late  and we still all over guessed.

New thread coming up soon.




https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   179,638,623,624 (+9.88%)
Adjust time:   After 2014 Blocks, About 14.7 days
Hashrate(?):   1,123,020,821 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   8:15 (4.5 minutes ago)


Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate


Feb 19 2016   163,491,654,909   13.44%   1,170,318,852 GH/s   a rollover


Feb 07 2016   144,116,447,847   20.06%   1,031,625,717 GH/s
Jan 26 2016   120,033,340,651   5.89%   859,232,121 GH/s
Jan 13 2016   113,354,299,801   9.12%   811,421,684 GH/s
Dec 31 2015   103,880,340,815   11.16%   743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796   18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900   8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643   10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180   5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015   62,253,982,450   2.25%   445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015   60,883,825,480   0.12%   435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015   60,813,224,039   2.49%   435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015   59,335,351,234   4.17%   424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455   4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015   54,256,630,328   2.95%   388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015   52,699,842,409   0.81%   377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015   52,278,304,846   2.35%   374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303   3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931   -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355   4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154   -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245   2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558   8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979   3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014   13,462,580,115   14.51%   96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014   11,756,551,917   12.44%   84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014   10,455,720,138   18.10%   74,844,960 GH/s
© 2013-2014 BitcoinWisdom.com

new thread link https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1369886.msg13937834#msg13937834