Diff thread Feb 7 to Feb 19? picks are closed.

[philipma1957]

After reading this which could be fud.. http://bitcoinist.net/virtual-currency-issued-by-pboc-will-not-use-blockchain-technology/

Then looking here i find it interesting that its the china pools that all dropped big time. http://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/hashrate/30d?c=m&t=a

Could be that they had all that old tech in super cheap data halls like phil proposed.. cheap power @ around 1 c.. So they could run that old tech now if they brought down their avg of the entire farm.  So if 1/4 farm is old tech and 3/4 new it would avg out to maybe around .3 or .4 watts a gh.. morenew tech you add the more it drops your avg w/ghs.   Then once you get it to so large or maxed out then you either wait till the old machine dies and replace with new or just outright replace it all which is what we might be seeing here..  This drop was the equivalent of all the old tech dropping at once lol.. around 300 ph   Interesting to say the least!

Best Regards
d57heinz

Yeah it does look like 150 to 200ph dropped off.

Not sure exactly what they did. One guess is as good as another.

Ghost cities .
Load testing for super dam power plants.
A short term  one cent contract from January 22 to Febuary 14 . But the gear is out there and we could see the jump of 150 to 200 ph any given time.
I clock the sales on their btc addy and they are not selling  1000 s-7s a week more like 800 to 900.

So the next 120-150 days should be all over the place.

And the power dam's really are happening one thread I love is haobtc - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1072474.0.   I love Eric's pictures showing a different side of mining, it is much less secret then most companies.

But you will see they built near a power dam, which was very smart.  Once can assume they get it pretty cheap on power.  It's hard to tell how many private operation have great deals on electricity.  I wish it was more like public traded companies with open books.  But that chances are will never happen for most as they remain private companies.

how about this for a guess.  big long holiday chinese new years.   power use drops off as aluminum and big energy users shut down.

the dam has excess power. 

So bitmaintech did multiple 1 cent contracts from Jan 22 to Feb 15…..

 The  power plants said WTF money is money  even if it is only three weeks.

[radiumsoup]

how about this for a guess.  big long holiday chinese new years.   power use drops off as aluminum and big energy users shut down.

the dam has excess power. 

So bitmaintech did multiple 1 cent contracts from Jan 22 to Feb 15…..

 The  power plants said WTF money is money  even if it is only three weeks.

[Mikestang]

So bitmaintech did multiple 1 cent contracts from Jan 22 to Feb 15…..

Man, I wish someone would build a hydro station in the mountains behind me so I could get some $0.01 power!  Even if just for a little while, it would be a sweet experiment...

[Brob12321]

Coming into the home stretch here, looks like it'll be right around 10% increase by the re-target.  I was way off lol but its hard to predict far in advance like I did.

[notlist3d]

Coming into the home stretch here, looks like it'll be right around 10% increase by the re-target.  I was way off lol but its hard to predict far in advance like I did.

It is going down that is for sure:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:    163,916,409,052 (+13.74%)
Adjust time:    After 211 Blocks, About 1.3 days

I thought for sure we would be in the 20's.  I still wonder if shipping of S7's for  batch 10 has anything to do with it would temporarily reduce hashing as they move centers.   Big guy's in mining like PCFLI are getting shipment after the holiday that ended: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1283287.msg13860532#msg13860532

And if there are more like him it's hard to tell how many sales as I suspect it is a lot with big volume sales, and regular smaller buyers of batch 10.

[RichBC]

The downward trend has now flattened with Yesterday being +7.6% 155 Blocks. Run rate for the period is now +13.27% and looks like it will run flat at this rate until the end of the Period.

Rich

[d57heinz]

The downward trend has now flattened with Yesterday being +7.6% 155 Blocks. Run rate for the period is now +13.27% and looks like it will run flat at this rate until the end of the Period.

Rich

This paints a great look at how it went down.  


But now she on full blast again.. Showing 1.3 peta by bitcoind which does coincide with the blue line of 24 hour avg
Edit this one shows it over a longer period   http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-10k.png

Best Regards
d57heinz

[mavericklm]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    164,396,453,400 (+14.07%)
Adjust time:    After 106 Blocks, About 16.1 hours
Hashrate(?):    1,123,310,757 GH/s

and it goes back up again!

[notlist3d]

The downward trend has now flattened with Yesterday being +7.6% 155 Blocks. Run rate for the period is now +13.27% and looks like it will run flat at this rate until the end of the Period.

Rich

People in S7 thread have been notified on shipping on some of them it sounds like on batch 10.  I still think part of the downward trend is just gear switching locations.  Seems like big and small buyers of Bitmain getting S7's after holiday's there.

not sure if it is whole amount though as I agree that would be a lot of S7's. But none the less it has to be part of the downward trend.  If  I'm right it will go back up pretty soon, but I could be wrong .  I would like to be in this case.

[philipma1957]

-50.0 = Dekker3D

-1.2 = philipma1957 ____  I am hoping for a natural disaster to destroy all the new farms

+16.7 = HerbPean
+17.0 = adaseb
+17.7 = Kexkey ---------- corrected my miss
+18.7 = tertius993

+19.0 = vapourminer
+19.5 = wlefever
+19.8 = Biodom
+20.2 = edonkey
+20.5 = Brob12321
+20.6 = Ab-Soul  ------------------ got it now
+20.7 = Zz
+20.8 = tss
+21.0 = dukeneptun
+21.2 = Dexter770221 -------- corrected from 21.21
+21.3 = DanDan
+21.6 = sanandreas
+21.7 = RichBC
+21.9 = zebedee
+22.0 = Amph
+22.1 = ACAB
+22.2 = Valkir
+22.3 = lanfeusst
+22.4 = alh
+22.5 = redhack
+22.7 = DrG
+23.0 = ezeminer
+23.2 = Notlist3d
+23.5 = indiemax
+24.4 = Chris_Sabian

+24.9 = cakir
+25.0 = Last of the V8s
+25.5 = radiumsoup --------------- corrected my miss

+26.1 = blindminer


+27.0 = psi
+27.1 = flikflak

+27.7 = Mikestang

+28.0 = icey            +28 for me     Smiley  = wrong    @ icey please correct post

+29.0 = alfacro


+30.0 = ingiltere


+33.0 = pusttiu


final picks are above.  note I missed Kexkey and radiumsoup

 The chances are we carry over.

[Kexkey]

-50.0 = Dekker3D
-1.2 = philipma1957 ____  I am hoping for a natural disaster to destroy all the new farms

The chances are we carry over.

One of you guys could be the lucky one... especially Dekker3D!!

 

[philipma1957]

-50.0 = Dekker3D
-1.2 = philipma1957 ____  I am hoping for a natural disaster to destroy all the new farms

The chances are we carry over.

One of you guys could be the lucky one... especially Dekker3D!!

 

I don't know about that I think that I would pick a snow ball's chance  in h--l over  Dekker3D.

I am thinking I will go back to rollover not ending and try to be very careful about cheaters.
I did link the excitement of the bigger prizes.

[Kexkey]

-50.0 = Dekker3D
-1.2 = philipma1957 ____  I am hoping for a natural disaster to destroy all the new farms

The chances are we carry over.

One of you guys could be the lucky one... especially Dekker3D!!

 

I don't know about that I think that I would pick a snow ball's chance  in h--l over  Dekker3D.

I am thinking I will go back to rollover not ending and try to be very careful about cheaters.
I did link the excitement of the bigger prizes.

I think the rollover is very exciting and may attrack more people in the game, which is cool! 

Funny that weather is more predictable than mining difficulty...

[tss]

looks like a large amount of mining hash slowly shut down in the days after the chinese new year ended.  i am thinking that they are now shipping these units to customers and we shall see ALL of the prior hash rate AND MORE up and running on the network within a week.  this is just the calm before the storm.  20%+ next jump is not outside the realm of whats possible.

[notlist3d]

looks like a large amount of mining hash slowly shut down in the days after the chinese new year ended.  i am thinking that they are now shipping these units to customers and we shall see ALL of the prior hash rate AND MORE up and running on the network within a week.  this is just the calm before the storm.  20%+ next jump is not outside the realm of whats possible.

I think there is a good chance it's Bitmain on S7's on a decent amount.  Small user's have gotten notices (at least some) on shipping.

And look at big side of it PCFLI's group I like to watch due to being a large quantity ordered. They still claim not to have miners it seems - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1283287.240

Next one will hurt if these all go back online and if bitmain fills up slots with next batches S7's.  The next batch they show shipping as " ANTMINER S7 BATCH 11 - Shipped out from March 1st~5th" so likely they will run those for a small bit of time.

[RichBC]

A strong Day yesterday with +20.83% 174 Blocks. Run Rate for the period at +13.8% and will probably rise a little from there. 23 Blocks to go so looks like we will finish up around 11:00 at +14%

How these Periods run never ceases to surprise.  I am going to take a look at the hash rate for the Big Farms for the last few Days & see if that reveals anything?


Rich

[indiemax]

-50.0 = Dekker3D
-1.2 = philipma1957 ____  I am hoping for a natural disaster to destroy all the new farms

The chances are we carry over.

One of you guys could be the lucky one... especially Dekker3D!!

 

I don't know about that I think that I would pick a snow ball's chance  in h--l over  Dekker3D.

I am thinking I will go back to rollover not ending and try to be very careful about cheaters.
I did link the excitement of the bigger prizes.

I think the rollover is very exciting and may attrack more people in the game, which is cool! 

Funny that weather is more predictable than mining difficulty...

Great quote!

As a non miner I do enjoy the game and the knowledge base you share

as it gives me a broader insight to where Bitcoin may be heading.

Mining does appear to be a tough game to be in ,so best of luck to all

[RichBC]

Well I think we are there with +13.43% but need the official Figure.

Rich

[flikflak]

Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
Feb 19 2016   163,491,654,909   13.44%   1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016   144,116,447,847   20.06%   1,031,625,717 GH/s


So we have around 60 bucks/month for one S7 @ $ 0.1/KWh. Ouch, tough stuff for homeminers these days.

[Last of the V8s]

Funny that weather is more predictable than mining difficulty...

I was vaguely wondering if the weather coud be correlated with the hashpower. Sounds crazy, sure.

What if there'd been heavy rains up in Sichuan mountains. Hydro dams have a temporary surplus of power, sell it off cheap to miners?

... hey take it even tinfoil hattier, miners mine more because rain, excess heat from mining causes more rain, miners mine more ...