Bitcoin Forum

this is over and will be locked once I pay the winner


new thread is here.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1387464.msg14099542#msg14099542









New thread we had a rollover.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1356223.msg13937766#msg13937766

Prize is 0.2 btc.

I am allowing anyone that Joined the site  before Jan 1 , 2016  and has 30 posts to play.

I have decided to allow rollovers to just keep going.

I have 0.8 btc left in prize money which means we go on for at least 14 weeks.

That  is around May 20- June 1.  I may add more prize money so we reach the ½ ing

Rules.

 1) You joined at least last year 2015 and have 30 posts or more.
 2) Since it is free and no cost to you I may disqualify you if I think you are trying to do multiple entries.
 3) I will let these roll over so prizes could reach more then 0.2

4)  picks are in the format below

so +1.0 = yourforumname  is the way to write your pick    and that gives you  +1.00 to   +1.09 percent as your range



last games picks

-50.0 = Dekker3D

-1.2 = philipma1957
+16.7 = HerbPean
+17.0 = adaseb
+17.7 = Kexkey
+18.7 = tertius993

+19.0 = vapourminer
+19.5 = wlefever
+19.8 = Biodom
+20.2 = edonkey
+20.5 = Brob12321
+20.6 = Ab-Soul
+20.7 = Zz
+20.8 = tss
+21.0 = dukeneptun
+21.2 = Dexter770221 -------- corrected from 21.21
+21.3 = DanDan
+21.6 = sanandreas
+21.7 = RichBC
+21.9 = zebedee
+22.0 = Amph
+22.1 = ACAB
+22.2 = Valkir
+22.3 = lanfeusst
+22.4 = alh
+22.5 = redhack
+22.7 = DrG
+23.0 = ezeminer
+23.2 = Notlist3d
+23.5 = indiemax
+24.4 = Chris_Sabian

+24.9 = cakir
+25.0 = Last of the V8s
+25.5 = radiumsoup

+26.1 = blindminer


+27.0 = psi
+27.1 = flikflak

+27.7 = Mikestang

+28.0 = icey            
+29.0 = alfacro


+30.0 = ingiltere


+33.0 = pusttiu

5)  remember it is a spec thread about difficulty. so spec .

6) and since it is free of charge my rules pretty much are subject changed by me and tiebreakers disqualification's  yada yada yada are up to me.



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   179,638,623,624 (+9.88%)
Adjust time:   After 2014 Blocks, About 14.7 days  >>>>>>>>>>   when this reads after 1416 picks we start picking corrected
Hashrate(?):   1,123,020,821 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):  
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   8:15 (4.5 minutes ago)



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   179,638,623,624 (+9.88%)
Adjust time:   After 2014 Blocks, About 14.7 days >>>>>   when this reads after 816 picks we end picking
Hashrate(?):   1,123,020,821 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):  
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   8:15 (4.5 minutes ago)

So I won the second place, for a third time !

I might be able to win one ... might !  ;D

Always love rollovers I think it ads to the fun.  I think we will see bitmain S7's that shippped out hitting network soonish.

One thing I hope goes up is value.  With all the difficulty jumps BTC value could use it to. Were starting at around 420 per coin during this difficulty period.

Maybe difficulty could slow down this adjustment, I mean we are at 10.5 minutes for blocks based on the numbers.

The dream... of a negative difficulty change :D

Read this new's intersting as we  don't hear a lot about inner workings  of KNC mines.  They had a stabbing happen in one.... http://www.coindesk.com/prosecutors-indict-suspect-bitcoin-mine-stabbing/  crazy.

But the intersting part is they consider the workers contractors.  I wonder how many mines do consider people contractors and not a direct employee.

probably just a fight between 2 foreign laborers.. i doubt they were arguing about the bits and who gets them.

i like Elwar's comment on the article.. pretty accurate "I'm seeing a trend now. Headline says "blockchain" when it is good news, "Bitcoin" when it is bad news."

on another note.  would it be so hard to post a link to the new thread before locking the previous one? 
i must not know how to use the forum properly but it took me a bunch of clicks to find this new one.

The trend of saying blockchain vs bitcoin has been going on for a while.   It's been a bit since the last BTC conference I went to but they talk about how a investor hears bitcoin some instant bad thought's.

When trying to get investors a lot use blockchain technology as the buzz word.   It seems to work.  Chances are blockchain will get more and more  popular the more mainstream BTC goes,

The original post for this thread indicates that a guess of +1.0 would go through +1.19%, and not the previous 1.09%. That suggests intervals of .2 rather than .1. Is that a typo, or a deliberate  change in the plan?

Also noticed it, must be a typo.

I was just looking at the chart of past increases, and on December 18th, difficulty was 93.5 Billion. On February 19th, it had risen to 163.5 Billion. That's almost exactly a 75% increase in 2 months time. I don't have an accurate recollection of BTC price on December 18th, but I am sure it hasn't gone up 75% in the last two months.

Rather sobering in my opinion.

My guess is miners believe in the block reward/btc price equilibrium and bet on the price going up (like doubling) at the halving in July or around.  So they pump their hashpower even if right now it looks like not being worth it...

Mining, gambling, investing in stocks ... Same game?   :)

typo it is and corrected


fixed it


link has been added

Well at least the price has climbed a little this past adjustment period, unlike the one previous.  We're starting this diff period with coins worth about $420, a good 10% bump from the start of last adjustment and almost on pace with difficulty.  I would like to see price continue to strengthen as the difficulty rises.  This is going to start getting really interesting here soon as we approach the halving.  Will manufacturers continue to push out hardware as fast as they can?  Will we reach a critical mass, or will the network continue to grow almost logarithmic fashion?  Only time will tell, but it is fun to speculate (and more-so when a 0.1btc reward is involved).  8)

Looking at a 2-month graph it does look like network hash rate is starting to plateau:
http://i63.tinypic.com/wk1bhk.jpg


Although we just had 4 blocks solved in under 2 minutes, not good for difficulty:
http://i65.tinypic.com/li8sk.jpg

Well a nice slow start to the Period. Run rate so far is -6%  :) I think there is an important difference this Period in that we entered it with a Full correction to the Difficulty, perhaps even an overcorrection? In the previous two periods we had an under-correction of at least 10% because of when Hash was added during the Periods.


Rich

I dont think so, the drop in hashrate coincide with the Batch 10 shipping out and there was a lot of BTC dropping in Bitmain,s pocket. It might not be the only factor but i would not be surprised if they mined on B10 during the latest holiday and when coming back they did tons of shipping.

I guess until they hit the door we'll see less hashrate.

From looking at group buys it was big and small orders to.  PCFLI finally got his I think  that it's been around a month waiting on for those who bought.  And small customers are getthing batch 10 shipped.

I think it's temporary that they are just moving places, and will be up and running pretty soon.  But bitwsidom has went down:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:    176,351,943,784 (+7.87%)
Adjust time:    After 1900 Blocks, About 13.8 days

Not disagreeing with the Batch 10 shipping effect just making the point that in the last 2 Periods where Hash was added during the Period it results in an under-correction of Difficulty and a positive starting point for the next Period even before any more Hash is added.

Whereas I judged for this Period that the exit run rate matched the correction, so we were entering this Period at Par. Of course from here anything could happen.  :)

Rich

13.44% was better than 20%  :P Lets hope the next diff will be more around 5 to 10%  ;D

They did not sell 10 percent of the network in batch ten.

We were at 23 percent and dropped to 13 percent.  The missing ten percent would be 108 ph

This is about 22000 s-7s! That did not happen.

It is a mix of batch ten and an unknown

Also like Rich says this makes for an inaccurate early number for diff.

Based on the 23 percent I think we may add 60 to 80 ph. With maybe  40 ph going missing.

I read on Twitter this morning that some relatively big Chinese mining farms have been caught stealing electricity and had to stop their operations.  That could explain the drop.

   Lets all say a quick prayer to what ever deity you believe in that this is true.  And that Chinese  government cracks down on the other farms.

This news if true is wonderful.

[/quote]

I read on Twitter this morning that some relatively big Chinese mining farms have been caught stealing electricity and had to stop their operations.  That could explain the drop.


[/quote]


Haha, the Chinese !

Well with the price going up,hope you guys can get your ROI  ;D

Can you provide link? I would be interesting to see it.  Would take more then twitter for me to believe it though.

Good news is price has shot up were around 438... approaching 440.   Considering we were around 418 around 24 hours ago that is a decent jump... so I'm starting to get happier on BTC price.

Hum, I'll try to find it.  I am following a lot of people, won't be easy to find.  It was related to the Bitcoin Roundtable in Hong Kong, IIRC it was a screenshot of a discussion in WeChat.

But you're right, there's a lot of junk on Twitter.  But not as much as on Reddit.  :)

EDIT: Fixed a typo.

Yesterday finished with +4.17% 150 Blocks however Today there have had some slow Blocks and the run rate for the period is at -3% which is nice  :) Thanks to the Roundtable Consensus we are nicely over £300 now and have been touching $450, let's hope this holds and we can move steadily up.


Rich

And we took a drop to around 433 right now.. so almost even with 24 hours ago.  No long term gain sadly.  I am suprised at low difficulty numbers I don't know what to think of that.

I was pretty convinced someone was just pumping out the gear and would keep doing it.   I would love to be wrong thought on it.

Just an observation. It may only be bad luck/variance but Bitfury has solved a lot less blocks in the last few days.  

Has their hash rate dropped?

@mwizard today was really slow day.

https://blockchain.info/blocks/1456023040236



399510 (Main Chain)   2016-02-21 23:52:41

399383 (Main Chain)   2016-02-21 00:00:14



that is  a 128 block day

the 19th  of feb was  138 blocks
the 20th  of feb was  151 blocks
the 21st  of feb was  128 blocks

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   170,040,810,739 (+4.01%)
Adjust time:   After 1662 Blocks, About 12.1 days
Hashrate(?):   1,129,745,950 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   21:55 (1.1 minutes ago)

While I might be wrong, I don't think there is a direct way that somebody, outside of Bitfury, can measure their hash rate. The global hashrate, and any outside estimate of their hashrate, is based solely on how quickly they solve blocks. I think the only thing you can conclude from a reduced block solve rate for Bitfury, is that they have a smaller fraction of the estimated network hashrate.

So it's kind of a circular answer. So many things are based solely on block solve rate.

Wow! Hashrate really sure took a dive, wondering if that Chinese mining farm stealing electricity was true.

As Phil has said a really slow Day -11.11% and only 128 blocks, relative to the last few periods this is Pedestrian, and looking at Today it seems to be continuing with the Run rate taking another little step down to -6.19%.

So the big question is will this continue throughout the Period? Was there a big push to get everything mining before the Holiday that cleared the pipeline for the moment and we are now in a short lull before everyone's 14/16nm Miners are ready?


Rich

  

This so confusing lately that the only thing I can state almost for sure there will be another prize rollover in this thread  :)

and because it is so nutty you  will be wrong. ;D

Whatever is going on it sure is weird, I wish there was a way to definitively know instead of having to guess.  Price is strong right now, over $437 as I type, and difficulty is leveling off for this period anyway.  I would really like to see it stay level for the next few months, I'm hoping the big hardware push is done.  There's a point where there won't be enough time left to the halving for even the $0.01 kw-h power people can't ROI new gear, so it should settle down at some point.

Well my theory is that there was a big push to get stuff mining before the Holiday and now with the BW 14nm Miner being deployed and the Bifury announcements people will be holding back on further 28nm purchases, putting us into a slight lull waiting for full availability of new miners?


Rich

good as any other guess.

although I prefer a 50 to 100 ph group of farms in China were busted for power theft.  This would be very helpful to hash rate for a few jumps.

The only thing is that BW miner is quite different then the specs they released on miner long ago.  So they must be able to produce it pretty cheap if they launched a lot of them.   

I'm not sure on chip design but they have a way's till they reach specs.   Not sure if that is good or bad long term.  They do seem to be first one to sell 14NM though at least one reseller had hands on a few from BW.  I have not seen any others sell a 14nm outside of company.

I think that the point is that all the noise from Bitfury and the actual existence of the BW Miner signals that 14nm is here / very close, so who is going to be buying a 28nm miner at the moment?

Rich

Is it just me, or does anybody else think that it MIGHT be a tiny negative adjustment? The bitcoinwisdom trend lines all suggest that could happen, although with nearly 11 days to go, almost anything is possible still.

The change is just stunning from a week ago.

I suspect it's the eye of the storm, but with the price rising and the difficulty falling let's enjoy it while it lasts. But yes Today is going to be another quiet one with around -12% on the Day and the run rate for the period at least -6%. However as you say 11 days to go, but nice to see a downward slope for a change. Picks open in about 24Hrs time so a new prediction challenge awaits.  :)

Rich

In China, if you know the "right" people, you can get electricity for free, all you have to do is pay cash "under the table" to these "right" people. Much less expensive than paying for electricity, especially if you are a megawatt miner.

Unfortunately after the record setting diff growth over the winter this far even a modest negative adjustment doesn't really excite me.  Now string together 6 or 8 -10% adjustments and we've got something to talk about!  Not that I'll turn down a negative adjustment, it's just that any diff over ~100G is pretty daunting to us small miners.

I would agree on the signals that 14nm is getting better and eventually will hit specs and knock all 28nm out at normal mining.  There are those super cheap or free miners though that will be super lucky and 28 NM still great.

If you had 1-2 cent electricity even after 14NM I suspect a S7 would still be a great miner.  I predict Bitmain keeps making S7's for foreseeable future likely as internal electricity is so low and cost to make is lowest it will be.  So they still have some big profits left on 28NM.

But for normal electricity you right when you look at specs (once the 14nm hits them) it is a game changer on electricity usage.

So when its a rollover we can't change our pick from the last difficulty right ?

The prize goes up, it rollover. Of course you can change your picks. :)

a new game every adjustment.

so a different pick is allowed.

we are starting picks at 1216 taken from here:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   166,270,789,400 (+1.70%)
Adjust time:   After 1525 Blocks, About 11.2 days   1416 is the start
Hashrate(?):   1,096,968,792 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.6 minutes
3 blocks: 31.8 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   22:45 (4.5 minutes ago)

only 1.7% the next one?, it seems that they are slowing it down already, this mean that they want to maintain some margin on their profit and they are near the minimum ratio needed between earning and consumption

Well another quiet Day -11.81% 127 Blocks. Today at the moment looks to be similar, run rate for the Period now at -6.28% and Picks should open in about 14 Hours. So the big question is are we going to continue like this or will someone start piling on the Hash?

yes what we know is the network can do over  1,250 ph as it was doing it for days on end from  jan 22 to feb 14
 so we start picking in 51 blocks.

This does make picks very hard since 100 to 125ph are on the sidelines.

No one knows if a big farm in China was busted stealing power. (we can all hope this is the case)

I want to say keep your eyes peeled for any info on the twitter-reddit- anywhere to confirm if a Chinese farm did get caught.
Oh coins went down to 420 usd this morning.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   165,324,094,341 (+1.12%)
Adjust time:   After 1467 Blocks, About 10.8 days >>>>>>>  at  1416 we start ( corrected )
Hashrate(?):   1,116,470,561 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.6 minutes
3 blocks: 31.7 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   8:30 (5.6 minutes ago)

The coins going down is not fun.   But was nice to see the 440 area again even if just a while.  Bitwisdom looks even lower now:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:    164,747,179,820 (+0.77%)
Adjust time:    After 1451 Blocks, About 10.7 days
Hashrate(?):    1,103,231,160 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 10.6 minutes
3 blocks: 31.9 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours

I just don't know what to think.  We had crazy high numbers out of no where.   Now were getting more in line with what "normal" was.  So will be interesting to see where we end up.

So we are here:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   165,334,057,582 (+1.13%) diff is pretty low
Adjust time:   After 1447 Blocks, About 10.6 days  >>>>>>> picks will start in 31 blocks.
Hashrate(?):   1,107,952,554 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   12:10 (4.7 minutes ago)

even lower below

http://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   399737
Total BTC   15.243M
 
Difficulty   163491654909
Estimated   159126615319 in 1447 blks   this is (-2.67%)  that is amazing !
 
Network total   1132713.091 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.81 / 620 s

I think picks are open right now. It's too hard to guess this time so I'm waiting.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   165,041,410,938 (+0.95%)
Adjust time:   After 1416 Blocks, About 10.3 days
Hashrate(?):   1,100,414,853 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours

first pick

-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.

Your pick may actually have a chance this adjustment period, Phil!  I would have never though that a couple weeks ago.

I think almost everyone is going to wait until the end to guess on this one...

+2.0 = ezeminer

I believe it will be low, but not negative... yet.

I would Like to see it one time. Before the 1/2 ing

0.0 = adaseb

first pick

-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.


  0.0 = adaseb

+2.0 = ezeminer

+1.3 = VRobb

Just can't quite get myself to bet on negative... yet!

Too good to be true :P

+4.2 = VirosaGITS

first pick

-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.


  0.0 = adaseb

+1.3 = VRobb
+2.0 = ezeminer
+4.2 = VirosaGITS

+0.1 = mavericklm

Thank you!

-0.9 Witrebel (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )

+7.1 = psi

+2.2 = Valkir

+0.7 = Notlist3d

Thanks!

first pick

-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.

-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct

  0.0 = adaseb
+0.1 = mavericklm
+0.7 = Notlist3d

+1.3 = VRobb

+2.0 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+7.1 = psi

-3.4 = HerbPean

thanks !

EDIT: my bad with the % ...  :(

first pick

-3.4 = HerbPean

-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.

-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct

  0.0 = adaseb
+0.1 = mavericklm
+0.7 = Notlist3d

+1.3 = VRobb

+2.0 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+7.1 = psi

+1.5 = Amph

+2.5 =pusttiu

+3.5 = Last of the V8s

kthx

-3.4 = HerbPean

-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.

-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct

  0.0 = adaseb
+0.1 = mavericklm
+0.7 = Notlist3d

+1.3 = VRobb
+1.5 = Amph
+2.0 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+2.5 =pusttiu
+3.5 = Last of the V8s
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+7.1 = psi

Bitswidom showing negative... truly amazing

Bitcoin Difficulty:    163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:    163,153,140,373 (-0.21%)
Adjust time:    After 1325 Blocks, About 9.7 days
Hashrate(?):    1,050,604,174 GH/s

Price a slight positive going at 423 right now and heading up.

Price going up and difficulty going down, this is more like it!  Unfortunately it would take several negative adjustments to really make a dent, but at least we're going the right direction so far.  The northern hemisphere is only a couple weeks away from the start of spring, so mines may start scaling back as things heat up.  Of course, they might ignore the heat and push everything they've got until the halving, but I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Maybe the crooked farm in China getting busted is a true story.

But remember the 80 to 120ph   is out there power down and unless it was destroyed it could all come back in as little as one day.

I personally won't believe it unless more then some twitter talk happens.    If they were caught... they still have gear that I would imagine they would be trying to get somewhere else.

I just think it sounds like to good of news to be true.   And even if it was true long term I we would need to know if it's something they pay fines, or jail.  And either way they would be trying to get that gear somewhere else I think if was true.  

A little could be batch 11 shipping.  Don't know if we know how big this batch is really.

Chris_Sabian -3.8%

Yep, going to go negative this time...

-1.0 = HagssFIN   

leowonderful = +1.43
My sources tell me that the hashrate will soon cumback  and we'll be seeing business as usual. Y'alls predictions all wrong. Negative? pfft.

Hashrate is dropping like a rock.

No idea what is going on!!!

This is proof that its next to impossible to predict mining ROI.

-3.8   = Chris_Sabian
-3.4 = HerbPean

-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.
-1.0 = HagssFIN

-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct

  0.0 = adaseb
+0.1 = mavericklm

+0.7 = Notlist3d

+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = leowonderful        corrected from +1.43
+1.5 = Amph
+2.0 = ezeminer

+2.2 = Valkir

+2.5 =pusttiu

+3.5 = Last of the V8s

+4.2 = VirosaGITS

+4.6 = kipper01

+7.1 = psi

+4.6 = kipper01

look at these charts:


https://i.imgur.com/DPFhxiZ.png
https://i.imgur.com/jV8zbM6.png

This is quite an impressive drop but we are only talking for a few days, let's hope it we keep it low for at least one diff ! :P

We need a good drop. Say  -1.11%

I wish we knew how many batch 11's have been shipped on S7's.   Some shifted to new owners don't know if it was -1.11 percent.  But some has to be due to batch 11's starting to ship.

But I agree it is a welcome sign to see compared to 20ish that was going crazy.

these batches are 1000 to 2000 machines tops.  I still track their btc addy
it has grown 3000 coins that is under 2000 machines.

https://blockchain.info/address/1KwA4fS4uVuCNjCtMivE7m5ATbv93UZg8V

Well it's been a steady slide down so far. Yesterday the slowest day so far with -18.06% and only 118 Blocks. It too early in the Day to tell, only 50 Blocks in, but signs are that things might have picked up slightly and we might be in for a 0% Day?

Not sure what has happened to BW.com who I watch quite closely but a couple of Weeks ago that had steadily risen to 100PH, they are now at 80PH. I know they have some old B1 & B9 Miners, so perhaps they are being decommissioned?


Rich

We are only a few hours away from block 400,000. Such a milestone to hit.

I can't wait any longer, I peeked into a crystal ball and it showed my some magic lines.  The lines all converged at:

-2.5% = Mikestang

-3.8   = Chris_Sabian
-3.4 = HerbPean

-2.5% = Mikestang

-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.
-1.0 = HagssFIN

-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct

  0.0 = adaseb
+0.1 = mavericklm

+0.7 = Notlist3d

+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = leowonderful        corrected from +1.43
+1.5 = Amph
+2.0 = ezeminer

+2.2 = Valkir

+2.5 =pusttiu

+3.5 = Last of the V8s

+4.2 = VirosaGITS

+4.6 = kipper01

+7.1 = psi


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   161,368,655,999 (-1.30%)
Adjust time:   After 1209 Blocks, About 8.9 days
Hashrate(?):   1,073,612,105 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.6 minutes
3 blocks: 31.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   7:40 (1.3 minutes ago)


My best guess as to hash rate drop is there was a large short 1 penny contract for power in China. Jan 22 to Feb 14

Someone like bitmaintech or  BW.com or both had the contract.  They added a lot of new gear and kept the old gear running for those three weeks.

When the contract ended they powered off the old gear.

This could be very good as that gear may not come back on line  and maybe 80 to 130 ph of gear is decommissioned .

This would mean at least 2 good jumps.  This one and the next.

+1.1 = fr4nkthetank

-3.8   = Chris_Sabian
-3.4 = HerbPean

-2.5% = Mikestang

-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.
-1.0 = HagssFIN

-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct

  0.0 = adaseb
+0.1 = mavericklm

+0.7 = Notlist3d
+1.1 = fr4nkthetank
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = leowonderful        corrected from +1.43
+1.5 = Amph
+2.0 = ezeminer

+2.2 = Valkir

+2.5 =pusttiu

+3.5 = Last of the V8s

+4.2 = VirosaGITS

+4.6 = kipper01

+7.1 = psi

+3.2 = Biodom

thanks

-1.4 = bomberb17
Thanks

-3.8   = Chris_Sabian
-3.4 = HerbPean

-2.5 = Mikestang

-1.4 = bomberb17

-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.
-1.0 = HagssFIN

-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct

  0.0 = adaseb
+0.1 = mavericklm

+0.7 = Notlist3d
+1.1 = fr4nkthetank
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = leowonderful        corrected from +1.43
+1.5 = Amph
+2.0 = ezeminer

+2.2 = Valkir

+2.5 =pusttiu

+3.2 = Biodom

+3.5 = Last of the V8s

+4.2 = VirosaGITS

+4.6 = kipper01

+7.1 = psi

-2.8  for networkgeek24

Well Trump tells me if I want to WIN

-2.2 = indiemax

-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.4 = HerbPean
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.4 = bomberb17

-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.
-1.0 = HagssFIN

-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct

  0.0 = adaseb
+0.1 = mavericklm

+0.7 = Notlist3d
+1.1 = fr4nkthetank
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = leowonderful        corrected from +1.43
+1.5 = Amph
+2.0 = ezeminer

+2.2 = Valkir

+2.5 =pusttiu

+3.2 = Biodom

+3.5 = Last of the V8s

+4.2 = VirosaGITS

+4.6 = kipper01

+7.1 = psi

Bitwisdom looking pretty nice:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:    160,680,904,929 (-1.72%)
Adjust time:    After 1157 Blocks, About 8.5 days
Hashrate(?):    1,096,049,195 GH/s


Price at around 423.  So really not to bad of a week if this continues.  I would be super happy to see a negative.

- 0.5 = alfacro

- 0.7 = ailikun

-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.4 = HerbPean
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.4 = bomberb17

-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.

-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct

-0.7 = ailikun

-0.5 = alfacro

  0.0 = adaseb
+0.1 = mavericklm

+0.7 = Notlist3d
+1.1 = fr4nkthetank
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = leowonderful        corrected from +1.43
+1.5 = Amph
+2.0 = ezeminer

+2.2 = Valkir

+2.5 =pusttiu

+3.2 = Biodom

+3.5 = Last of the V8s

+4.2 = VirosaGITS

+4.6 = kipper01

+7.1 = psi



https://blockchain.info/blocks/1456361477388

400046 (Main Chain)   2016-02-25 23:46:55
399892 (Main Chain)   2016-02-25 00:14:52

we had the first big day today 155 blocks

Truly amazing to watch bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:    159,573,299,963 (-2.40%)
Adjust time:    After 1132 Blocks, About 8.4 days
Hashrate(?):    1,104,274,198 GH/s

I did not think we would go negative.  And now showing over 2 percent negative.... I don't know what to think.  I feel like speculation right now is like throwing a dart at board.  That there is not any good true speculation.

If i lose because i put a way too high guess, i'll be even happier to be wrong, because a negative right now sound too good to be true. Hopefully its the end of a high raise trend and not just the eye of the storm.

Considering Bitfury apparently sell 14PH/s + self contained freight container miners, it could go much much higher if someone decided to crash the diff further.

nah  you just need to see what we have been shown from nov 2015 to feb 2016 to know there is 80 to 150ph on the sidelines that gets powered on and off.

we had this mystery hash stay online for one really long stretch of time jan 22 to feb 14 hash rates went fucking nuts.

It was  turned off  for the first 800 blocks this jump,     but this last day maybe some came back on line.  we did  155 blocks or so

The good thing is every if a push of 10 % happens for a while  since we are neg 2.5%  we may only have a plus 5% at worst.

I really hope the worst does not happen.  we will see soon enough.


@ virsosaGits  I think you are still in the game with that pick of 4.2

I still see it as hard with it being so secretive.  For all we know some 16NM's were sold and moving locations.  There are countless ideas I can come up with that possibly could be effecting it.

But I could be over complicating it.   Hopefully I am and the drop keeps going, and your right about we will see soon enough.

Who knows, the 16nm theory doesnt sound that bad. It would of been a burn-in test of a batch of 5-10 containerized data center.
http://bitfury.com/products#container-datacenter

-4.1 = blindminer

-4.1 = blindminer

-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.4 = HerbPean
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.4 = bomberb17

-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.

-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct

-0.7 = ailikun

-0.5 = alfacro

  0.0 = adaseb
+0.1 = mavericklm

+0.7 = Notlist3d
+1.1 = fr4nkthetank
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = leowonderful        corrected from +1.43
+1.5 = Amph
+2.0 = ezeminer

+2.2 = Valkir

+2.5 =pusttiu

+3.2 = Biodom

+3.5 = Last of the V8s

+4.2 = VirosaGITS

+4.6 = kipper01

+7.1 = psi



https://blockchain.info/blocks/1456361477388

400046 (Main Chain)   2016-02-25 23:46:55
399892 (Main Chain)   2016-02-25 00:14:52

we had the first big day today 155 blocks


our low pick is -4.1  our high pick is  +7.1

that is a spread of 11.2 or 112 ranges
we could go lower then the -4.1 but I think the +7.1 is running short on time.

but pace is picking up after 5 hours today we made 37 blocks and should be 30 this is a 160 block pace.

I had expected 155 or more the rest of the jump slowly rising out of negative and ending at 2 or 3 %

+.4

Yes definitely a step up Yesterday and that seems to be continuing Today, to early to judge but Today's Run rate at +25%. It's not BW they are still down at 80PH


Rich

Seems like somebody woke the Beast again. Crazy run-up today.

-4.1 = blindminer

-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.4 = HerbPean
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.4 = bomberb17

-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.

-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct

-0.7 = ailikun

-0.5 = alfacro

  0.0 = adaseb
+0.1 = mavericklm
+0.4 = CrazyGuy

+0.7 = Notlist3d
+1.1 = fr4nkthetank
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = leowonderful        corrected from +1.43
+1.5 = Amph
+2.0 = ezeminer

+2.2 = Valkir

+2.5 =pusttiu

+3.2 = Biodom

+3.5 = Last of the V8s

+4.2 = VirosaGITS

+4.6 = kipper01

+7.1 = psi

@ RichBC and adaseb  looks like our mystery farm has fired up so if they keep it going from now until the end of the jump we will be in the 2 to 5% range.

Bitwisdom still pretty dang low:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:    159,762,196,590 (-2.28%)
Adjust time:    After 1055 Blocks, About 7.7 days
Hashrate(?):    1,117,976,550 GH/s

Price at 424 gain of 1 dollar or so currently in a day.  If we get a negative and price in 420's I would consider this a huge win.

https://blockchain.info/blocks

400136 (Main Chain)   2016-02-26 14:29:18

400047 (Main Chain)   2016-02-26 00:29:05

90 blocks made in the time it takes for 87   we would do around 147- 152 today   If we keep at that level we could stay near -1 to +1

Yeah I think we are going up and up until the end of this diff

I think long term we will be up.  I can't understand why we slowed so much, I can throw tons of theories none backed by fact's though.

The fact is difficulty is scary since Jan 26 to me:

Feb 19 2016    163,491,654,909    13.44%    1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016    144,116,447,847    20.06%    1,031,625,717 GH/s
Jan 26 2016    120,033,340,651    5.89%    859,232,121 GH/s

Add that up and we get almost 40 percent.   I just am hoping even with new NM chips we don't see this again.  I can't take to many of these quick and fast jumps or my profit margins are out the window.

Something that REALLY scared me was when I first realized whats really happening with % increases.  With respect to the Jan 26 difficulty, it is not 5.89% + 20.06% + 13.44% = 39.39%, it is 1.0589 * 1.2006 * 1.1344 = 1.44218012, or 44.2%.

Reminds me of the Einstein quotes:

"Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it ... he who doesn't ... pays it."  and "Compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe."

I always like that quote.

Here we go all blocks since this jump
http://btc.blockr.io/charts

138    -3     partial day  -6 so I used -3
152   +8     +5  running total
134   -10    -5     "   "     "  "
125   -19    -24   "  "      "  "
134   -10    -34   "  "      "  "
117   -27    -61   "  "      "  "
158  +14    -47   "  "      "  "

we look to be 148 today  which would put us at  - 43 blocks.  this is good but I do remember 187 block days even 202 block days just a little while ago.

so I hope for a -1 this jump and would be happy with a +2 this jump we have enough time to get up to +5 or + 6 which would be terrible.

Compound interest really is a amazing thing.  I can't believe I did not think about this guess I was already shocked and stuck at 40 percent.   44 percent is almost having number... and that is since Jan 26.

People are scared of having but we almost did it just with difficulty changes in a very small period of time.  I hope it stays down... but I'm guessing once next nm is perfected we see some big jumps.  The good news is I don't know if this is a near term problem.  We could still have some time before this.

we flattened out near the end and went minus on the day 142 blocks!

https://blockchain.info/blocks/1456531162564

400186 (Main Chain)   2016-02-26 23:44:59

400047 (Main Chain)   2016-02-26 00:29:05

not bad at all.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   159,571,769,462 (-2.40%)
Adjust time:   After 998 Blocks, About 7.3 days ------------------ picks end when this is 816  so late Saturday maybe?
Hashrate(?):   1,122,853,773 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   19:0 (3.7 minutes ago)

and with 1018 blocks made we are down 60 blocks or so. 

Also, at some point we will probably/hopefully see older gear start to fall off, which may help temper the sharp jumps

I suspect the drop off here has been just that.  when the s-7 started we had 410 ph in older gear.

The problem I think is most of the big operations of old gear (A1's I'm thinking of a lot here).  They chances are will upgrade not shut down.  They already have the initial investment in data center.

I think most re-invest with new machines and have VERY low electricity prices.  So not sure old gear coming off is that great of news.

-5.8 = edonkey

Hopefully I'm not too late...

The cats are excited about this one. Haven't seen them this interested in the difficulty for a long time.

-5.8 = edonkey
-4.1 = blindminer
-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.4 = HerbPean
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.4 = bomberb17
-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.
-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct
-0.7 = ailikun
-0.5 = alfacro

  0.0 = adaseb

+0.1 = mavericklm
+0.4 = CrazyGuy
+0.7 = Notlist3d
+1.1 = fr4nkthetank
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = leowonderful        corrected from +1.43
+1.5 = Amph
+2.0 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+2.5 =pusttiu
+3.2 = Biodom
+3.5 = Last of the V8s
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.6 = kipper01
+7.1 = psi

we have about  20- 25 hours to  end of picking.
we have a lot of choice left.
lastly we are a solid negative.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

138    -3     partial day  -6 so I used -3
152   +8     +5  running total
134   -10    -5     "   "     "  "
125   -19    -24   "  "      "  "
134   -10    -34   "  "      "  "
117   -27    -61   "  "      "  "
158  +14    -47   "  "      "  "
141  -  3     -50   "  "      "  "

-3.1 = tertius993

-1.7 = zebedee

Thanks

-5.8 = edonkey
-4.1 = blindminer
-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.4 = HerbPean
-3.1 = tertius993
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.7 = zebedee
-1.4 = bomberb17
-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.
-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct
-0.7 = ailikun
-0.5 = alfacro

  0.0 = adaseb

+0.1 = mavericklm
+0.4 = CrazyGuy
+0.7 = Notlist3d
+1.1 = fr4nkthetank
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = leowonderful        corrected from +1.43
+1.5 = Amph
+2.0 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+2.5 =pusttiu
+3.2 = Biodom
+3.5 = Last of the V8s
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.6 = kipper01
+7.1 = psi

we have about  16- 21 hours to  end of picking.
we have a lot of choice left.
lastly we are a solid negative.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

138    -3     partial day  -6 so I used -3
152   +8     +5  running total
134   -10    -5     "   "     "  "
125   -19    -24   "  "      "  "
134   -10    -34   "  "      "  "
117   -27    -61   "  "      "  "
158  +14    -47   "  "      "  "
141  -  3     -50   "  "      "  "

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   158,606,072,678 (-2.99%)
Adjust time:   After 935 Blocks, About 6.9 days   >>>>> 816 is 119 blockx to go
Hashrate(?):   1,108,122,542 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.6 minutes
3 blocks: 31.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   6:20 (3.3 minutes ago)

+1.2 = vapourminer

-5.8 = edonkey
-4.1 = blindminer
-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.4 = HerbPean
-3.1 = tertius993
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.7 = zebedee
-1.4 = bomberb17
-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.
-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct
-0.7 = ailikun
-0.5 = alfacro

  0.0 = adaseb

+0.1 = mavericklm
+0.4 = CrazyGuy
+0.7 = Notlist3d

+1.1 = fr4nkthetank
+1.2 = vapourminer
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = leowonderful        corrected from +1.43
+1.5 = Amph

+2.0 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+2.5 =pusttiu
+3.2 = Biodom
+3.5 = Last of the V8s
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.6 = kipper01
+7.1 = psi

we have about  16- 21 hours to  end of picking.
we have a lot of choice left.
lastly we are a solid negative.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

138    -3     partial day  -6 so I used -3
152   +8     +5  running total
134   -10    -5     "   "     "  "
125   -19    -24   "  "      "  "
134   -10    -34   "  "      "  "
117   -27    -61   "  "      "  "
158  +14    -47   "  "      "  "
141  -  3     -50   "  "      "  "

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   158,606,072,678 (-2.99%)
Adjust time:   After 935 Blocks, About 6.9 days   >>>>> 816 is 119 blockx to go
Hashrate(?):   1,108,122,542 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.6 minutes
3 blocks: 31.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   6:20 (3.3 minutes ago)

-3.0 = wlefever

-2.7 = radiumsoup

Continues to go down:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:    158,385,284,623 (-3.12%)
Adjust time:    After 873 Blocks, About 6.4 days
Hashrate(?):    1,142,198,263 GH/s

Think I choose wrong side... looking like decent chance  of negative.  I'm happy to be wrong on that though.  Price around 430 and headed down slightly so not great but not to bad.

-5.8 = edonkey
-4.1 = blindminer
-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.4 = HerbPean
-3.1 = tertius993
-3.0 = wlefever
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.7 = radiumsoup
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.7 = zebedee
-1.4 = bomberb17
-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.
-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct
-0.7 = ailikun
-0.5 = alfacro

  0.0 = adaseb

+0.1 = mavericklm
+0.4 = CrazyGuy
+0.7 = Notlist3d

+1.1 = fr4nkthetank
+1.2 = vapourminer
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = leowonderful        corrected from +1.43
+1.5 = Amph

+2.0 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+2.5 =pusttiu
+3.2 = Biodom
+3.5 = Last of the V8s
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.6 = kipper01
+7.1 = psi

we have about  16- 21 hours to  end of picking.
we have a lot of choice left.
lastly we are a solid negative.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

138    -3     partial day  -6 so I used -3
152   +8     +5  running total
134   -10    -5     "   "     "  "
125   -19    -24   "  "      "  "
134   -10    -34   "  "      "  "
117   -27    -61   "  "      "  "
158  +14    -47   "  "      "  "
141  -  3     -50   "  "      "  "

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   158,385,284,623 (-3.12%)
Adjust time:   After 873 Blocks, About 6.4 days  >>>>>>> 56 blocks and picks end
Hashrate(?):   1,142,198,263 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   


Still maybe 7 to 11 hours left to pick

Well I can't risk leaving the Pick until Tomorrow as it will be too early in the Morning UK time. So as ever it's tricky, we have gone down up and sideways, and now things are picking up a little again. Still leaves the biggest unknown of will someone switch on a load more hash at some point?

We could still end up anywhere between -5% & +5% so....

-0.3 = RichBC

+1.9 = tss

+1.0 = tlhIlwI

-5.8 = edonkey
-4.1 = blindminer
-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.4 = HerbPean
-3.1 = tertius993
-3.0 = wlefever
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.7 = radiumsoup
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.7 = zebedee
-1.4 = bomberb17
-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.
-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct
-0.7 = ailikun
-0.5 = alfacro
-0.3 = RichBC
  0.0 = adaseb

+0.1 = mavericklm
+0.4 = CrazyGuy
+0.7 = Notlist3d
+1.0 = tlhILwI
+1.1 = fr4nkthetank
+1.2 = vapourminer
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = leowonderful        corrected from +1.43
+1.5 = Amph
+1.9 = tss
+2.0 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+2.5 =pusttiu
+3.2 = Biodom
+3.5 = Last of the V8s
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.6 = kipper01
+7.1 = psi

we have about  4 hours
we have a lot of choice left.
lastly we are a solid negative.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

138    -3     partial day  -6 so I used -3
152   +8     +5  running total
134   -10    -5     "   "     "  "
125   -19    -24   "  "      "  "
134   -10    -34   "  "      "  "
117   -27    -61   "  "      "  "
158  +14    -47   "  "      "  "
141  -  3     -50   "  "      "  "
146    +2    -48  with 844 blocks to go


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   158,083,875,890 (-3.31%)
Adjust time:   After 841 Blocks, About 6.2 days    >>> 25 blocks left!
Hashrate(?):   1,164,358,445 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.6 minutes
3 blocks: 31.7 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   19:55 (1.6 minutes ago)

about 4 to 7 hours left to pick  lots of numbers left to choose from.

Really is hard to believe I kept thinking we would see some gear come online and pick up.... so far I'm very wrong.  And happy to be wrong.

Price is taking a little drop around 424 currently. So price going in wrong direction.

-3.6 = Kexkey

Yay!!  :)

The big guns shut something down a really big farm.

Sales to little guys are not high maybe 1000 units of s-7 batch 10 and 1000 units of s-7 batch 11.
2000-3000 s-7s = 13ph or 14 ph.

The big farm is over 75ph. Maybe as big as 150 ph..

So - 125 and + 15 ph = - 110 ph   We have seen the network 100 ph higher then today.

That missing 110 ph where is it? I don't know guesses abound we have put up more then Ten ideas.

Let's hope most of the missing hash stays missing.

-5.8 = edonkey
-4.1 = blindminer
-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.6 = Kexkey
-3.4 = HerbPean
-3.1 = tertius993
-3.0 = wlefever
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.7 = radiumsoup
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.7 = zebedee
-1.4 = bomberb17
-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.
-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct
-0.7 = ailikun
-0.5 = alfacro
-0.3 = RichBC
  0.0 = adaseb

+0.1 = mavericklm
+0.4 = CrazyGuy
+0.7 = Notlist3d
+1.0 = tlhILwI
+1.1 = fr4nkthetank
+1.2 = vapourminer
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = leowonderful        corrected from +1.43
+1.5 = Amph
+1.9 = tss
+2.0 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+2.5 =pusttiu
+3.2 = Biodom
+3.5 = Last of the V8s
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.6 = kipper01
+7.1 = psi

we have about  4 hours
we have a lot of choice left.
lastly we are a solid negative.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

138    -3     partial day  -6 so I used -3
152   +8     +5  running total
134   -10    -5     "   "     "  "
125   -19    -24   "  "      "  "
134   -10    -34   "  "      "  "
117   -27    -61   "  "      "  "
158  +14    -47   "  "      "  "
141  -  3     -50   "  "      "  "
146    +2    -48  with 844 blocks to go


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   157,351,050,526 (-3.76%)
Adjust time:   After 835 Blocks, About 6.2 days >>>>>>>>> 19 blocks to go
Hashrate(?):   1,142,655,554 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.6 minutes
3 blocks: 31.9 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   22:15 (1.2 minutes ago)






12 blocks to go

I am gong to assume the hash stays missing as well:

-2.9 = alh

-5.8 = edonkey
-4.1 = blindminer
-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.6 = Kexkey
-3.4 = HerbPean
-3.1 = tertius993
-3.0 = wlefever
-2.9 = alh
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.7 = radiumsoup
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.7 = zebedee
-1.4 = bomberb17
-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.
-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct
-0.8 = vortexz
-0.7 = ailikun
-0.5 = alfacro
-0.3 = RichBC
-0.2 = sloopy
  0.0 = adaseb
+0.1 = mavericklm
+0.4 = CrazyGuy
+0.7 = Notlist3d
+1.0 = tlhILwI
+1.1 = fr4nkthetank
+1.2 = vapourminer
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = leowonderful        corrected from +1.43
+1.5 = Amph
+1.9 = tss
+2.0 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+2.5 = pusttiu
+3.2 = Biodom
+3.5 = Last of the V8s
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.6 = kipper01
+7.1 = psi

we have about  4 hours
we have a lot of choice left.
lastly we are a solid negative.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

138    -3     partial day  -6 so I used -3
152   +8     +5  running total
134   -10    -5     "   "     "  "
125   -19    -24   "  "      "  "
134   -10    -34   "  "      "  "
117   -27    -61   "  "      "  "
158  +14    -47   "  "      "  "
141  -  3     -50   "  "      "  "
146    +2    -48  with 844 blocks to go


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   157,351,050,526 (-3.76%)
Adjust time:   After 835 Blocks, About 6.2 days >>>>>>>>> 19 blocks to go
Hashrate(?):   1,142,655,554 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.6 minutes
3 blocks: 31.9 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   22:15 (1.2 minutes ago)






12 blocks to go
11 blocks left

lots of spots could win and picking is free.

6 blocks left

sat nite live just ended. I am going to sleep  still 6 blocks to go.

-0.2 = sloopy


if I made it in time
I haven't checked any websites so I am probably way off anyway heh. :)


Edit 1:
After I posted I checked bitcoinwisdom:
Estimated Next Difficulty:   157,421,265,139 (-3.71%)
Adjust time:   After 818 Blocks, About 6.0 days

Well that's Block 400367 so we are done. We are holding steady with a run rate around -5% so it's now all about How much Hash get's added & when?


Rich

Yeah looks like we have some power been push again. 100-150p and going up

-0.8 = vortexz

This is the last pick.  I am letting it in only because I was sleeping and you missed by 1 hour.

I know that the site goes down sometimes and since I am not sure if it was up or down at the time. I am letting this pick in.



we are closed.  good luck to all that have made a pick.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   159,061,028,708 (-2.71%)
Adjust time:   After 769 Blocks, About 5.6 days
Hashrate(?):   1,209,462,398 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.4 minutes
3 blocks: 31.2 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   8:10 (1.7 minutes ago)

note as soon as we ended picks the mofos turned on the after burners >:(

I kept thinking it seemed to good to be true.  I would love a negative just to see would be a bright spot to me.     But I still don't know with how last 2 periods have went.

How bad does it look with your calculations of current blocks being solved?

may have just been a spot of variance. it slowed again

https://blockchain.info/


400442 (Main Chain)   2016-02-28 18:19:47

400334 (Main Chain)   2016-02-28 00:14:52

109 blocks in the time it should be 111 blocks

so we are 140 to 146 pace for today.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   158,195,677,487 (-3.24%)
Adjust time:   After 742 Blocks, About 5.4 days ----- only  5 days to go
Hashrate(?):   1,181,733,680 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.4 minutes
3 blocks: 31.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   13:30 (1.5 minutes ago)

every day like today is good as we start running out of time to get a big jump.

and coinbase is at 434 usd

China is building the largest waste-to-energy plant in the world - It will turn a third of Shenzhen's trash into energy every single day.  http://www.sciencealert.com/china-is-building-the-largest-waste-to-energy-plant-in-the-world

I speculate China is only going to be getting better and better in future if they do things like this.  Largest trash to energy... talk about a cool idea.

I wasnt exactly aware they had waste problem but now that i think about it, it make sense. But i think the big problem with China is the air pollution. At this rate many of them will die of air poisoning or they will have to all work around with air filters.

This won't help.

final picks

-5.8 = edonkey
-4.1 = blindminer
-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.6 = Kexkey
-3.4 = HerbPean
-3.1 = tertius993
-3.0 = wlefever
-2.9 = alh
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.7 = radiumsoup
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.7 = zebedee
-1.4 = bomberb17
-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.
-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct
-0.8 = vortexz
-0.7 = ailikun
-0.5 = alfacro
-0.3 = RichBC
-0.2 = sloopy
  0.0 = adaseb
+0.1 = mavericklm
+0.4 = CrazyGuy
+0.7 = Notlist3d
+1.0 = tlhILwI
+1.1 = fr4nkthetank
+1.2 = vapourminer
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = leowonderful        corrected from +1.43
+1.5 = Amph
+1.9 = tss
+2.0 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+2.5 = pusttiu
+3.2 = Biodom
+3.5 = Last of the V8s
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.6 = kipper01
+7.1 = psi

we have about  4 hours
we have a lot of choice left.
lastly we are a solid negative.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

138    -3     partial day  -6 so I used -3
152   +8     +5  running total
134   -10    -5     "   "     "  "
125   -19    -24   "  "      "  "
134   -10    -34   "  "      "  "
117   -27    -61   "  "      "  "
158  +14    -47   "  "      "  "
141  -  3     -50   "  "      "  "
143    -12    -51  with 844 blocks to go
137   - 7      -58 with  697 blocks to go

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   157,271,480,933 (-3.80%)
Adjust time:   After 697 Blocks, About 5.1 days
Hashrate(?):   1,155,432,721 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   22:35 (2.1 minutes ago)

we are down 58 blocks   with 697 to go. 

 4 days of 175 may happen like it did

Feb 2   177
Feb 3   177
Feb 4   172
Feb 5   184    and we would be crying


so far  22 blocks in the time it takes for 22 blocks

https://blockchain.info/blocks

400489 (Main Chain)   2016-02-29 03:38:48
400468 (Main Chain)   2016-02-29 00:01:18

I totally forgot about that game. I was watching the negative difficulty in Bitcoinwisdom. This is the first difficulty decrease since 28 June 2015. I kinda expected because hashrate went up too much in last changes.

https://blockchain.info/blocks

400551 (Main Chain)   2016-02-29 12:36:13
400468 (Main Chain)   2016-02-29 00:01:18

84 blocks in the time we should  have 76   so we are picking up the pace a bit.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   158,977,193,137 (-2.76%)
Adjust time:   After 633 Blocks, About 4.5 days
Hashrate(?):   1,168,664,789 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.3 minutes
3 blocks: 30.9 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   7:40 (3.1 minutes ago)


with 633 blocks left there is enough time to go to +3

so the 84 blocks in 12 hours and 40 minutes would be about 155 in 1 day.

Yes Today's run rate is the highest we have seen this Period, so looks like someone has switched something on. Period so far still at a nice low -4% but Today's rate at the moment +10%, but I think some of that is variance so will probably drop a bit during the Day.

Rich

The thing is, missing or not, that equipment physically exists out there still (unless it burned down or was all "old" gear that got recycled), so it could come back at any time and bump diff again.  It's a fun mystery to contemplate, I only wish we could get a definitive answer on what it is.

it has not come back yet.-------- good


https://blockchain.info/blocks

400591 (Main Chain)   2016-02-29 21:23:21


400468 (Main Chain)   2016-02-29 00:01:18   


124 blocks in the time it takes for 128 blocks so - on the day.

 we have 593 blocks left.  1 more 140 block day after today would be nice.

Yup, and I'm with you hoping that it never comes back, but it is/was out there so...

It's crazy to think just how much space 100PH worth of gear would take up and the type of utility infrastructure that has to exist to support it.  For it to be here one minute and gone the next, there is for sure a big story there that we're not getting any of.

well there was some twitter buzz that a Chinese farm was caught stealing power.

I never saw it only read about it

Even if it was an s-5 farm that was converting to s-7's  and it scored a 1 cent 3 week contract around Chinese holiday  Jan 22 to Feb 14

It would need to be

          1 x 1.15 =        1.15 th
        10 x 1.15 =      11.5 th
      100 x 1.15 =     115th
    1000 x 1.15 =     1150th or    1.15 ph
  10000 x 1.15 =   11500th or  11.50 ph
100000 x 1.15 = 115000th or 115.00 ph

so 100,000 s-5's would be an amazing farm.

 I do not think that is true I think  the missing 100ph is something else.

I can scale 100000 s-5s' in my minds eye if they were all in 1 long row. they would be about 8 inches wide for each one  or 66000 feet or 13 miles

so say the ware house had two sets of shelves with 3 rows of s-5s  each  it would be 11,000 feet or 2 miles . so my thoughts are whatever was powered off was not s-5s in 1 spot.

Maybe 20 warehouses of s-5's scattered about china

These?
http://bitfury.com/products#container-datacenter

Because i don't really think there would be that many S5's going offline in the first place. And if they were in China, they would still be really profitable to run.

It could easily be 10 of those containers that got burn-in testing, that would explain the hash in a pretty simple and clean manner.  But the weird conspiracy theories are more fun to day dream about...  :P

It is crazy to think that the bitcoin network has the hashrate equivalent ~100 of those containers.

Kinda, but those are big containers, with tons of chips etc. I think the insides are tons of racks and everything is submerged. Must be a pain to replace defective hardware lol. Each container is like one small datacenter.

I would be real surprised in BitFury pre-builds any of the "mining containers". Yes they most certainly could, but it's a pretty expensive thing to have "on the shelf" waiting for a buyer. If they actually have a buyer, then it will be coming back after it arrives wherever and gets plugged in......

I think the "short term cheap power" or "power cheat" story is more plausible. :)

Every day is one step closer to difficulty decrease!!!

except they don't exist.  not in 10ph size.

1 mega watt of power is used.  that is about 4 million btus of heat per container.

a container is 40 by 10 feet  I know it has liquid cooling for the chips.


but the heat even when pulled from the chips needs to be moved out of the container.  it needs jet engine fans to move the heat.  these fans do exist. but I think they just do not build them out to 10 ph.

I don't see them producing a single one.  Was a publicity thing just like the light bulb.  If a big buyer wanted one.... they would make it.

But big buyers want a normal data center I think.  And a lot already have that so just want new miner to put in.   So ... pr move not production in my eyes.

final picks

-5.8 = edonkey
-4.1 = blindminer
-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.6 = Kexkey
-3.4 = HerbPean
-3.1 = tertius993
-3.0 = wlefever
-2.9 = alh
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.7 = radiumsoup
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.7 = zebedee
-1.4 = bomberb17
-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.
-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct
-0.8 = vortexz
-0.7 = ailikun
-0.5 = alfacro
-0.3 = RichBC
-0.2 = sloopy
  0.0 = adaseb
+0.1 = mavericklm
+0.4 = CrazyGuy
+0.7 = Notlist3d
+1.0 = tlhILwI
+1.1 = fr4nkthetank
+1.2 = vapourminer
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = leowonderful        corrected from +1.43
+1.5 = Amph
+1.9 = tss
+2.0 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+2.5 = pusttiu
+3.2 = Biodom
+3.5 = Last of the V8s
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.6 = kipper01
+7.1 = psi


we are a solid negative.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

138    -3     partial day  -6 so I used -3
152   +8     +5  running total
134   -10    -5     "   "     "  "
125   -19    -24   "  "      "  "
134   -10    -34   "  "      "  "
117   -27    -61   "  "      "  "
158  +14    -47   "  "      "  "
141  -  3     -50   "  "      "  "
143    -12    -51  "   "     "   "
137   - 7      -58  "   "     "  "
134   -10     -68  with  556 blocks left

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   157,797,573,592 (-3.48%)
Adjust time:   After 556 Blocks, About 4.0 days
Hashrate(?):   1,123,210,141 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.4 minutes
3 blocks: 31.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   


I have us in 'real time'  -5% 

 and yeah  we still can flick a switch and add 100 ph maybe , but we are reaching the point of a certain negative adjustment.

also price was 418 on feb 19  price is 437 on feb 29

I want back in the mining and seeing this:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:    157,822,992,308 (-3.47%)
Adjust time:    After 548 Blocks, About 4.0 days
Hashrate(?):    1,132,845,782 GH/s
makes me crave it! ;D

Well another quiet Day with -7.64% and 133 Blocks. Run rate has been tracking neatly between -4% & -5% and if we continue as we are then that's probably where we will end up. However usually as soon as I say something like that things change.  :)

Rich

Well good game, i'm glad to having lost by overshooting by that much. 2 Weeks of mining at -X% is great News.

Maybe all the chinese farms turned off their Antminers and used those PSUs to power their GPUs; like I did.

final picks

-5.8 = edonkey
-4.1 = blindminer
-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.6 = Kexkey
-3.4 = HerbPean
-3.1 = tertius993
-3.0 = wlefever
-2.9 = alh
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.7 = radiumsoup
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.7 = zebedee
-1.4 = bomberb17
-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.
-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct
-0.8 = vortexz
-0.7 = ailikun
-0.5 = alfacro
-0.3 = RichBC
-0.2 = sloopy
  0.0 = adaseb
+0.1 = mavericklm
+0.4 = CrazyGuy
+0.7 = Notlist3d
+1.0 = tlhILwI
+1.1 = fr4nkthetank
+1.2 = vapourminer
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = leowonderful        corrected from +1.43
+1.5 = Amph
+1.9 = tss
+2.0 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+2.5 = pusttiu
+3.2 = Biodom
+3.5 = Last of the V8s
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.6 = kipper01
+7.1 = psi


we are a solid negative.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

138    -3     partial day  -6 so I used -3
152   +8     +5  running total
134   -10    -5     "   "     "  "
125   -19    -24   "  "      "  "
134   -10    -34   "  "      "  "
117   -27    -61   "  "      "  "
158  +14    -47   "  "      "  "
141  -  3     -50   "  "      "  "
143    -12    -51  "   "     "   "
137   - 7      -58  "   "     "  "
134   -10     -68  with  556 blocks left


so far today 83 blocks in the time for 85

https://blockchain.info/blocks


   
400683 (Main Chain)   2016-03-01 13:58:32

400601 (Main Chain)   2016-03-01 00:13:17


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   157,610,155,417 (-3.60%)
Adjust time:   After 501 Blocks, About 3.6 days
Hashrate(?):   1,116,287,439 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.4 minutes
3 blocks: 31.2 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   9:10 (4.0 minutes ago)

only 501 blocks left

if we do 3 days of 167  we would finish at just about 0

so I think our best contenders are in this area below


-5.8 = edonkey
-4.1 = blindminer
-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.6 = Kexkey
-3.4 = HerbPean
-3.1 = tertius993
-3.0 = wlefever
-2.9 = alh
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.7 = radiumsoup
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.7 = zebedee
-1.4 = bomberb17
-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.
-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct
-0.8 = vortexz
-0.7 = ailikun
-0.5 = alfacro
-0.3 = RichBC
-0.2 = sloopy
  0.0 = adaseb
+0.1 = mavericklm
+0.4 = CrazyGuy

Well if only we could have a string of periods like this one. Period run rate now at -5% and looks like Today will be also around -5% 137 Blocks. If the trend continues we will finish  between -5% & -6%. I think edonkey could be the only one close to the Money. That said still about 3 Days to go....


Rich

If it lands in the -3.2 slot then I'm going to be kicking myself before I smile at the drop.  My hunch was on that slot but I didn't go with it.  Instead I went with a slight positive figuring the drop was too good to be true.  Oh well... I'd much rather have the drop than be right in this case!

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   156,606,361,411 (-4.21%) >>>>>>>> nice number
Adjust time:   After 459 Blocks, About 3.3 days
Hashrate(?):   1,115,028,342 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   16:55 (1.4 minutes ago)

maybe  we stay lower then -4%

I would like a rollover since I said fuck it and will let rollover build.

yeahhhh i'm glad my speculation was wrong ! looks like we will be setting around 1100 peta for the rest of the Diff !

My -3,4% doesn't look so risky like I was thinking when I did my pick.  ;D (was guessing 1130p in avg)

I does look like the network hash rate is leveling off, almost certain to remain negative this time.  Would be nice to get a couple negatives in a row.  Only a handful of adjustments before the halving!

so miners reached the equilibrium between consumption and earning, which is around 4:1 ratio for 0.05 per electricity

i think in the future they will maintain this, so for every halving expect an increase in value that keep this ratio

So Yesterday ended up at -2.08% 141 Blocks in the Day. We have got off to a very frisky start Today and the Period run rate has lifted from -5% to -4%, just reminding us how quickly things can change. However I think this is just variance as at the moment we are still in the -4% to -5% band, but could be the start of a push up? We will continue to wait, watch and hope.  :)


Rich

we are 13 hours and 50 minutes  that is 78 + 5  or an 83 block 'norm'




400829 (Main Chain)   2016-03-02 13:48:35
400742 (Main Chain)   2016-03-02 00:20:10


88 blocks made  so 88 instead of 83   could be a move  maybe  variance

it is +6% for the day and if real would mean  152-153 block day

168... my guess.

This^^^ ;)    Bitcoin is in a world of hurt atm.. More alts looking better by the day!.   Nice bump in price on the one i know your talking about adaseb.  Just bought 5 more hd 7970 off ebay ;D  Im turning my attention their.. This coin is for the big boys now.  And all of you thinking bitfury will produce.. Well i wouldnt supprt that POS after this debacle!..  
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/48m21t/code_red_bitcoin_is_under_attack_by_miners_based/
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/48dzom/antpool_limiting_the_block_size_is_much_more/d0j7sqx

Cant trust nooone.> that is why this system is trustless based.  Get it?

Best Regards
d57heinz

EDIT  But also have to look at it as the chinese are scared of competition.. could be just a jab at them to discredit them.. Too much of this infighting going on its just awful ..   Between the scammers and the all the other bs it seems their is a Bunch of damn "kids" running the show.. And it is grossly apparent more and more each day.

aww... I missed to place my bet this time. My guess would be -3.1... 4 days ago...

@d57heinz

missing you on kano, I hope you haven't left yet.

really you guys think they are all mining eth now ?  I'm thinking all the gear similar to an s3 are all shut down now.  they did make a shitload of those.

the s3's were about 40-60ph

go back to nov 2014 network was 285ph

you had a lot of dragon miners 1 watt
you had s-1----------------------1.1 watt underclock

you had s-4----------------------.7watt

you had s-3---------------------.7 watt
you had sp10--------------------.7watt

now hashnest shut down s-3

and is about ready to shut down s-4

this could account for hash drop

Definitely think some Hash has been added Today, runrate for the Day is at +10% and seems to holding up too long for variance. If we continue at +5% we will see -3% for the Period and  if it continues at +10% we will see -2% for the Period.

Rich

Well I know of at least one S3 that went off-line, mine!  I replaced it with an S5, but I'm pretty sure that doesn't show up on the network difficulty.  ;)

I agree


https://blockchain.info/


400873 (Main Chain)   2016-03-02 20:00:00

400742 (Main Chain)   2016-03-02 00:20:10

132 blocks in 20 hours should be 120 blocks  that is +12 or 10%

There is an upside to this.  If we go to -1.2%  which is my pick I am not taking the coin.  which means

A) Bragging rights for me
B) the prize money stays for everyone else
C) I will reset contest  back to .1  ,    but the .8 or .7 left will not get smaller.  I need to check what is left. 

There is .8 in the prize pool

Well ive moved along.  My machines are no longer efficient enough and with so much uncertainty with the halving and bitmain screwing us on pricing i wasnt willing to gamble any more. Im selling what i have on ebay to make up what i Lost due to diversifying in the btc ecosystem.> lets see. ltcgear, hashie.co, friedcat/asicminer, gaw.. i could go on and on.. I could take it a bit easier if i did what was thought to be stupid and put all in one place.. But i did what all the ponzi operators disguised as legendary btc/ltc talk users suggested diversify.. And they all folded!!!.. Ohh and forgot craptsy was the latest one.  Really can we trust any of them at this point??  Had tons of goldcoin i sent their from mining solo at 1 gh/s not knowing the f ing wallet was in maintenance and we all know what happen to them.> So ya im over this shit.  Gonna take a hard look at ethereum.. I mean i did buy 2k of them with only 1 btc back on the presale.. so id say i faired really well there considering i have them safely tucked away>> Plus im mining at 150 mhs and going to be growing more end of this week.   Any time i question whats goin on at kano my shit is deleted.  So meh.  Also i dont like the fact that he thinks he can control what transactions go in what blocks>  I mean they are blocks found by his pool but that takes away some of the security of bitcoin if all miners started doing this.  Lets hope the hell not.   Anyway thats for another discussion not to be had by me.> Im just a no body here :).  Not short on opinions tho  ;)   Eth is seeing a massive exodus from bitcoin.. Seen this article come up again.. Looks like the effect is moving from usd > btc to btc > eth.. only time will tell. http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/hyperbitcoinization/

Best Regards
d57heinz

Edit
 
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/48oeo8/seriously_thinking_of_selling_my_btc_at_least/
"Selling your bitcoins is the #1 way that you can force change. It also has a secondary benefit of getting out before everyone else loses money.
Miners aren't going to make any changes until they lose money. These people are not interested in the future of the network - they are greedy corporations like the ones that Satoshi wanted to get rid of.
The best way to punish big business is to hit them in the wallet. People can spin up all the Classic nodes they want, but that doesn't help if there are no blocks to propagate. If you want to force significant change, don't drain your money every month by hosting nodes. Instead, sell your bitcoins, which incurs only a one-time fee, hits miners in their pocketbooks, and gets you out of harm's way.
No matter what happens, the market is going to crash before it goes back up. If miners don't increase the blocksize, people stop using bitcoin and it crashes. If there is a fork, a crash will happen during the period when both forks are listed on exchanges and value shuffles between them. If the Lightning Network is adopted, uncertainty about its acceptance will cause a crash. It's not only the best moral decision, it's the best financial one as well." https://www.reddit.com/user/ProHashing   

damn good response there!!

maybe time to hedge with some eth like so many have already guys.>  its all a gamble either way. but bottom line is i dont see a price rise with all the bs going on either.. Personally i'm surprised it's held this long..  Keep your eyes open to a change in the wind :o

Oh, thats really sad to hear. I also lost some bucks at cryptsy too and now the competition is all about the USD/KWh - well, its the same it ever was. But even with 0.11/KWh I'm thinking to quit in a few months, maybe its not the worst idea. Thanks for the eth info.

@all
good luck with your picks (fingers crossed)

final picks


-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.6 = Kexkey
-3.4 = HerbPean
-3.1 = tertius993
-3.0 = wlefever
-2.9 = alh
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.7 = radiumsoup
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.7 = zebedee
-1.4 = bomberb17
-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.
-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct
-0.8 = vortexz
-0.7 = ailikun
-0.5 = alfacro
-0.3 = RichBC
-0.2 = sloopy
  0.0 = adaseb
+0.1 = mavericklm
+0.4 = CrazyGuy
+0.7 = Notlist3d


I think the winner will be from  the section above.

We had a hit day today.

https://blockchain.info/blocks/1456878001413

400898 (Main Chain)   2016-03-02 23:59:08

400742 (Main Chain)   2016-03-02 00:20:10

157 blocks  =   +9%  



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   160,384,294,473 (-1.90%)
Adjust time:   After 284 Blocks, About 2.0 days   -------           this will most likely not be enough blocks to go over +0.7%
Hashrate(?):   1,137,349,263 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 30.0 minutes
6 blocks: 60.0 minutes
Updated:   19:20 (3.4 minutes ago)

So when all is said and done  we may be very close to 0%

Well I shutdown my 2 Antminer S3, only reason was that I needed the power supply to power a few 280X.

Maybe other miners around the world are doing the exact same thing. They all have limited power or PSUs and are changing from BTC to ETH or vice versa.

To be honest I'm suprised I'm even in the running.  This period has been a roller coster, looked like down... .now going up a little.  Still would LOVE to see a negative just is a positive thing to have.

Price dropped around 15 dollars in 24 hours... so price not headed where I like it.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:    159,148,837,957 (-2.66%)
Adjust time:    After 247 Blocks, About 1.7 days
Hashrate(?):    1,125,453,310 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
   
Updated:    2:10 (5.6 minutes ago)

I am still confident that I have sign correct on my guess (i.e negative). It may not be quite as negative as I would like, but it will be a welcome relief from the other adjustments this year. With luck, it will land right on Phil's guess, which would be pretty much a win all around!

Well Yesterday we ended up at +9.03% 157 Blocks which is the most we have seen this Period, so it looked like some Hash had been added, however this Morning I am not so certain. We have got off to a very slow start with Today's run rate at -19% so I think we might just be seeing some big variance swings?

For the Period we are back in the -4% to -5% band that we have been tracking for 4 days now albeit at the top end -4.2%. However there is still a small upward trend so I think the end point will be in the -3% to -4% range.

Rich

Did i say +4.2% I meant -4.2% :P Jk

With Eth exploding upward, i'm wondering what it will do to the BTC price. At the very least its going to divert a portion of the growth away.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   158,368,224,832 (-3.13%)
Adjust time:   After 231 Blocks, About 1.6 days
Hashrate(?):   1,119,851,471 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   

It is heading lower  that is even better.  With luck it will drop to -4%

https://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   400954
Total BTC   15.274M
 
Difficulty   163491654909
Estimated   157266840733 in 230 blks    this estimate =  -3.81%
 
Network total   1081285.394 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.54 / 649 s
Home Bitcoin Markets Charts About

We continue to settle back into the -4% to -5% band. Run rate for the Period so far now at -4.2% and run rate for the Day continuing to hold very low at -16%. I am begining to wonder if anything has really happened this Period as I think we came out of last Period with a bit of an overcorrection of a few % and have just carried that flat through the period?

Rich

We are way down today.

400967 (Main Chain)   2016-03-03 13:54:30

400899 (Main Chain)   2016-03-03 00:10:27


69 blocks in 14 hours and 10 minutes

85 is 'normal'  so  with this cold streak


I  now think this is the area of possible winners:

-5.8 = edonkey      these two now could win
-4.1 = blindminer     "      "     "      "        "

-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.6 = Kexkey
-3.4 = HerbPean
-3.1 = tertius993
-3.0 = wlefever
-2.9 = alh
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.7 = radiumsoup
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.7 = zebedee
-1.4 = bomberb17
-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.
-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct


I cut off a lot on this side as we are going lower and lower.





lastly we are a solid negative.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

138    -3     partial day  -6 so I used -3
152   +8     +5  running total
134   -10    -5     "   "     "  "
125   -19    -24   "  "      "  "
134   -10    -34   "  "      "  "
117   -27    -61   "  "      "  "
158  +14    -47   "  "      "  "
141  -  3     -50   "  "      "  "
143    -12    -51  
137   - 7     -58
134  -10     -68
137   -7      -75
157   -13     -62    this is the big spike   but the next day is very low


130?       a  very low pace for today

I really hope I win. Not because of the prize, and not because our cats love fishy treats.

I want to win because my pick is the largest negative value.

Of course I'd be just as happy if I lose because the difficulty goes down even more than our cats' guess.

If you win it's kinda a win for all miners.  To get a negative in that teritory would be great.  I would love to see it after how difficulty has been lately.

I do wonder what's causing it though.  I wish we knew this part.  What caused us to not surge this  period and go into negative... and also how long term is this going to happen.

I have no idea WTF  but it is very nice to see.

https://blockchain.info/blocks

400998 (Main Chain)   2016-03-03 18:59:39
400899 (Main Chain)   2016-03-03 00:10:27

100 blocks on the button   19 hours should be 114!

sweet.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   158,194,280,601 (-3.24%)---------  this is too high
Adjust time:   After 186 Blocks, About 1.3 days
Hashrate(?):   1,135,623,015 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours

This period is looking much more promising than the last several adjustments.  I have getting afraid that 200G diff was right around the corner.  Hopefully diff will stay level/slightly negative for the next couple periods.  Although if we see new chip tech go public before the halving, watch out...

WTF really is a good question.   Price is 416 so dropped... but I think don't think that causes stop from big jumps in difficulty to negative.   I can think of a few ideas.... but none of them make sense.

People turning off gear... I don't see it as I think almost all will have info-structure they will put in new gear when old gear is done.  There is still a lot of A1's I suspect plugged in at very cheap electricity, some day they will come off but is it happening now? I don't know.

Big data centers buying gear to get last roi before having? Again I'm not sure... I can see it happening.  A lot of these I would think are in talks with Bitfury, and that scares me.  I keep thinking one day we will see news of bitfury shipping gear..... and that I think will make difficulty jump a good amount.  Again I don't know.

I really do want to know what is going on though.  Just not enough facts right now to prove anything.

https://blockchain.info/blocks


401027 (Main Chain)   2016-03-03 22:51:10
400899 (Main Chain)   2016-03-03 00:10:27

129 blocks   in 23 hours and 10 minutes   we should be   at 139


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   158,379,381,077 (-3.13%)
Adjust time:   After 156 Blocks, About 1.1 days
Hashrate(?):   1,134,494,487 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours


since there are 156 blocks left  we would need to do them in about 12 hours to go to a positive.

I really want a negative just to see one again.  I still don't know what is going on to slow down so much.  I think this is the calm before another storm.

And I could be wrong and hope I am.  But I think hashing jumps will be back especially once next gen hit's spec and starts shipping big.

https://blockchain.info/blocks


401059 (Main Chain)   2016-03-04 04:06:40

401034 (Main Chain)   2016-03-04 00:06:53

26 blocks in       the time it takes 25 blocks


yesterday numbers

https://blockchain.info/blocks/1456978445826

401033 (Main Chain)   2016-03-03 23:41:10
400899 (Main Chain)   2016-03-03 00:10:27

135 blocks  -9    we are negative   -71 blocks



-138    -3     partial day  -6 so I used -3
152   +8     +5  running total
134   -10    -5     "   "     "  "
125   -19    -24   "  "      "  "
134   -10    -34   "  "      "  "
117   -27    -61   "  "      "  "
158  +14    -47   "  "      "  "
141  -  3     -50   "  "      "  "
143    -12    -51  
137   - 7     -58
134  -10     -68
137   -7      -75
157   +13     -62    this is the big spike   but the next day is very low
135   - 9        -71      a  very low pace for today



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   157,890,213,982  (-3.43%)   this is nice
Adjust time:   After 125 Blocks, About 21.2 hours
Hashrate(?):   1,146,356,810 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   23:20 (45.0 seconds ago)



so do we stay under 0  yes  we would need to make those 125 blocks left in 9 hours  which is not going to happen.

I think -2  to -4



final picks

-5.8 = edonkey
-4.1 = blindminer
-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.6 = Kexkey
-3.4 = HerbPean
-3.1 = tertius993
-3.0 = wlefever
-2.9 = alh
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.7 = radiumsoup
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.7 = zebedee
-1.4 = bomberb17
-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.
-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct
-0.8 = vortexz
-0.7 = ailikun
-0.5 = alfacro
-0.3 = RichBC
-0.2 = sloopy
  0.0 = adaseb
+0.1 = mavericklm
+0.4 = CrazyGuy
+0.7 = Notlist3d
+1.0 = tlhILwI
+1.1 = fr4nkthetank
+1.2 = vapourminer
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = leowonderful        corrected from +1.43
+1.5 = Amph
+1.9 = tss
+2.0 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+2.5 = pusttiu
+3.2 = Biodom
+3.5 = Last of the V8s
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.6 = kipper01
+7.1 = psi


11 or so are in the zone

Well, it is nice relative to big double digit positive jumps, but the overall diff is still way ugly.  I wish it would at least go under 150G; I would feel better knowing it was closer to 100G than 200G.

Another quiet day yesterday with -6.25% 135 Blocks but again Today has got off to a brisk start with the Days run rate at the moment of +27%. It is dropping back but if we were to carry on at this sort of rate it could see us ending at -2.5%. However if the rate drops back to zero then we would end up at -3.5%. So just goes to show that even at this late stage how difficult this prediction is... Either way we will be finished before the end of the Day.

Rich

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   158,390,781,550 (-3.12%) >>>>>>> still good
Adjust time:   After 69 Blocks, About 11.7 hours
Hashrate(?):   1,188,360,395 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours


https://blockchain.info/blocks
401116 (Main Chain)   2016-03-04 11:49:50
401034 (Main Chain)   2016-03-04 00:06:53

83 blocks in the time for 72   so pace quickened

so maybe the 69 will take 10 hours not  11.7  if so we will be near -2.75%

final picks

-5.8 = edonkey
-4.1 = blindminer
-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.6 = Kexkey
-3.4 = HerbPean
-3.1 = tertius993
-3.0 = wlefever
-2.9 = alh
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.7 = radiumsoup
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.7 = zebedee
-1.4 = bomberb17
-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.
-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct
-0.8 = vortexz
-0.7 = ailikun
-0.5 = alfacro
-0.3 = RichBC
-0.2 = sloopy
  0.0 = adaseb
+0.1 = mavericklm
+0.4 = CrazyGuy
+0.7 = Notlist3d
+1.0 = tlhILwI
+1.1 = fr4nkthetank
+1.2 = vapourminer
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = leowonderful        corrected from +1.43
+1.5 = Amph
+1.9 = tss
+2.0 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+2.5 = pusttiu
+3.2 = Biodom
+3.5 = Last of the V8s
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.6 = kipper01
+7.1 = psi


11 or so are in the winning zone   same as last night.  good luck

I wonder what we will do next jump?

a -1.11% would be nice.

LOL I have a feeling that I will finish second ... once again ! :P

well at least you are still in action.  very good chance

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   158,327,247,354 (-3.16%)
Adjust time:   After 46 Blocks, About 7.8 hours ---------------- just 46 to go
Hashrate(?):   1,171,997,009 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours

ahhh too bad I had a rollover from the last diff pick because my +20% is soooo off its not even funny lmao

I think the reason why the difficulty stayed the same is because if you look at ETH hashrate, it went up by 300,000MHs, which is about 15,000 280X, each 280X uses about 175 Watts so about 2,625,000 Watts which at 0.50W/GHS is about 5,250,000 GHS.

So its accounts for the 5PH/s loss in BTC hashrate.

You're assuming that 100% of the Eth mining is being done with psu's that were taken from active bitcoin miners; I don't think that's an accurate assumption.

well we are - 3.49%  that is about 38.39 ph

there are multiple factors

ETH grew
PPC grew

Weather is warmer not then the jan 22 to feb 14 runup

Unknowns------ Ghost cities in China with ghost mining

A chinese farm did get busted stealing power.

Someone had a 3 week 1 cent power contract and ran  older gear for the Jan 22 feb 14 time solt.

Then turned the gear down

Just don't know whats up.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   157,781,913,541 (-3.49%)
Adjust time:   After 21 Blocks, About 3.6 hours
Hashrate(?):   1,193,634,996 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours



we have 3 hours to go   and we are at 3.49%

good luck to the close ones.

I have another much simpler theory.... Which is that during the second half of last Period the rate was dropping all the way. Because of this we actually had an overcorrection of about 3.5%. I think we have actually been flat for this Period, disguised of course by the usual variances, and have now had payback for the overcorrection?


Rich

ETH and PPC are a good point.   If we could get some alt coins that truly bring profit and ROI on machines.... would be good as miners to have more the just BTC to mine profitably.

I don't believe the one about stealing electricity.  Just someone saying they saw a tweet... seems to good to be true.  Also I think they would get gear out of there quick and to another location.  So would be temporary.

I still have a lot more questions then anwsers to go from 13+ to this... still just don't get it.

Only 10 blocks left


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   157,935,482,316 (-3.40%)
Adjust time:   After 10 Blocks, About 1.7 hours
Hashrate(?):   1,194,154,556 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   17:40 (3.3 minutes ago)



final picks

-5.8 = edonkey


-4.1 = blindminer
-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.6 = Kexkey
-3.4 = HerbPean                 We have a few with a shot  ------- GOOD LUCK
-3.1 = tertius993
-3.0 = wlefever
-2.9 = alh
-2.8 = networkgeek24


-2.7 = radiumsoup
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.7 = zebedee
-1.4 = bomberb17
-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.
-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct
-0.8 = vortexz
-0.7 = ailikun
-0.5 = alfacro
-0.3 = RichBC
-0.2 = sloopy
  0.0 = adaseb
+0.1 = mavericklm
+0.4 = CrazyGuy
+0.7 = Notlist3d
+1.0 = tlhILwI
+1.1 = fr4nkthetank
+1.2 = vapourminer
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = leowonderful        corrected from +1.43
+1.5 = Amph
+1.9 = tss
+2.0 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+2.5 = pusttiu
+3.2 = Biodom
+3.5 = Last of the V8s
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.6 = kipper01
+7.1 = psi


8 or so are in the zone

Looks like -3.10%

Ugh, so close!

Dang another .01% loss for me lol congrats to -3.10%

tertius993 winner winner!  Frankly I've never been happier to be wrong before, glad it went neg!

Congrats !

I need a btc addy to pay the 0.20

Nice win.


link to new thread

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1387464.msg14099542#msg14099542

-3.10% yeyyyyy

Very nice win, well done to tertius993

Rich

Wow, I won!

Thanks very much all, especially Philip for running the competition.

My address: 17nYQgCcomdjEhLW6t3tRS2DYrQ2pS6xyd

Prize has been sent from my coinbase account

https://blockchain.info/tx/b1fd7710df611369fc7d95ac1e88a9ed9f11d6bc0aa44e2e495cde1e8ff50adb

https://blockchain.info/address/17nYQgCcomdjEhLW6t3tRS2DYrQ2pS6xyd



To all here is the next thread link:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1387464.0


locking this one