|
RichBC
|
 |
March 03, 2016, 08:49:51 AM |
|
Well Yesterday we ended up at +9.03% 157 Blocks which is the most we have seen this Period, so it looked like some Hash had been added, however this Morning I am not so certain. We have got off to a very slow start with Today's run rate at -19% so I think we might just be seeing some big variance swings?
For the Period we are back in the -4% to -5% band that we have been tracking for 4 days now albeit at the top end -4.2%. However there is still a small upward trend so I think the end point will be in the -3% to -4% range.
Rich
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
There are several different types of Bitcoin clients. The most secure are full nodes like Bitcoin Core, but full nodes are more resource-heavy, and they must do a lengthy initial syncing process. As a result, lightweight clients with somewhat less security are commonly used.
|
|
|
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction.
|
|
|
VirosaGITS
Legendary
 Offline
Activity: 1302
Merit: 1068
|
|
March 03, 2016, 11:44:14 AM |
|
Well Yesterday we ended up at +9.03% 157 Blocks which is the most we have seen this Period, so it looked like some Hash had been added, however this Morning I am not so certain. We have got off to a very slow start with Today's run rate at -19% so I think we might just be seeing some big variance swings?
For the Period we are back in the -4% to -5% band that we have been tracking for 4 days now albeit at the top end -4.2%. However there is still a small upward trend so I think the end point will be in the -3% to -4% range.
Rich
Did i say +4.2% I meant -4.2%  Jk With Eth exploding upward, i'm wondering what it will do to the BTC price. At the very least its going to divert a portion of the growth away. |
|
|
|
philipma1957 (OP)
Legendary
 Online
Activity: 4116
Merit: 7824
'The right to privacy matters'
|
|
March 03, 2016, 11:51:10 AM |
|
Bitcoin Difficulty: 163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty: 159,148,837,957 (-2.66%)
Adjust time: After 247 Blocks, About 1.7 days
Hashrate(?): 1,125,453,310 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated: 2:10 (5.6 minutes ago)
I am still confident that I have sign correct on my guess (i.e negative). It may not be quite as negative as I would like, but it will be a welcome relief from the other adjustments this year. With luck, it will land right on Phil's guess, which would be pretty much a win all around!
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficultyBitcoin Difficulty: 163,491,654,909 Estimated Next Difficulty: 158,368,224,832 (-3.13%) Adjust time: After 231 Blocks, About 1.6 days Hashrate(?): 1,119,851,471 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 10.2 minutes 3 blocks: 30.6 minutes 6 blocks: 1.0 hours Updated: It is heading lower that is even better. With luck it will drop to -4% https://bitcoincharts.com/Blocks 400954 Total BTC 15.274M Difficulty 163491654909 Estimated 157266840733 in 230 blks this estimate = -3.81% Network total 1081285.394 Thash/s Blocks/hour 5.54 / 649 s Home Bitcoin Markets Charts About |
|
|
|
|
RichBC
|
|
March 03, 2016, 12:54:38 PM |
|
We continue to settle back into the -4% to -5% band. Run rate for the Period so far now at -4.2% and run rate for the Day continuing to hold very low at -16%. I am begining to wonder if anything has really happened this Period as I think we came out of last Period with a bit of an overcorrection of a few % and have just carried that flat through the period?
Rich
|
|
|
|
philipma1957 (OP)
Legendary
Online
Activity: 4116
Merit: 7824
'The right to privacy matters'
|
|
March 03, 2016, 02:11:34 PM |
|
We are way down today. 400967 (Main Chain) 2016-03-03 13:54:30 400899 (Main Chain) 2016-03-03 00:10:27 69 blocks in 14 hours and 10 minutes 85 is 'normal' so with this cold streak I now think this is the area of possible winners: -5.8 = edonkey these two now could win -4.1 = blindminer " " " " " -3.8 = Chris_Sabian -3.6 = Kexkey -3.4 = HerbPean -3.1 = tertius993 -3.0 = wlefever -2.9 = alh -2.8 = networkgeek24 -2.7 = radiumsoup -2.5 = Mikestang -2.2 = indiemax -1.7 = zebedee -1.4 = bomberb17 -1.2 = philipma1957 this has my -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over. -1.0 = HagssFIN -0.9 = Witrebel (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" ) < correct I cut off a lot on this side as we are going lower and lower. lastly we are a solid negative. http://btc.blockr.io/charts138 -3 partial day -6 so I used -3 152 +8 +5 running total 134 -10 -5 " " " " 125 -19 -24 " " " " 134 -10 -34 " " " " 117 -27 -61 " " " " 158 +14 -47 " " " " 141 - 3 -50 " " " " 143 -12 -51 137 - 7 -58 134 -10 -68 137 -7 -75 157 -13 -62 this is the big spike but the next day is very low 130? a very low pace for today |
|
|
|
edonkey
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1150
Merit: 1004
|
|
March 03, 2016, 03:35:54 PM |
|
I really hope I win. Not because of the prize, and not because our cats love fishy treats.
I want to win because my pick is the largest negative value.
Of course I'd be just as happy if I lose because the difficulty goes down even more than our cats' guess.
|
Was I helpful? BTC: 3G1Ubof5u8K9iJkM8We2f3amYZgGVdvpHr
|
|
|
notlist3d
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1000
|
|
March 03, 2016, 06:39:42 PM |
|
I really hope I win. Not because of the prize, and not because our cats love fishy treats.
I want to win because my pick is the largest negative value.
Of course I'd be just as happy if I lose because the difficulty goes down even more than our cats' guess.
If you win it's kinda a win for all miners. To get a negative in that teritory would be great. I would love to see it after how difficulty has been lately. I do wonder what's causing it though. I wish we knew this part. What caused us to not surge this period and go into negative... and also how long term is this going to happen. |
|
|
|
|
philipma1957 (OP)
Legendary
Online
Activity: 4116
Merit: 7824
'The right to privacy matters'
|
|
March 03, 2016, 07:03:55 PM |
|
I really hope I win. Not because of the prize, and not because our cats love fishy treats.
I want to win because my pick is the largest negative value.
Of course I'd be just as happy if I lose because the difficulty goes down even more than our cats' guess.
If you win it's kinda a win for all miners. To get a negative in that teritory would be great. I would love to see it after how difficulty has been lately. I do wonder what's causing it though. I wish we knew this part. What caused us to not surge this period and go into negative... and also how long term is this going to happen. I have no idea WTF but it is very nice to see. https://blockchain.info/blocks400998 (Main Chain) 2016-03-03 18:59:39 400899 (Main Chain) 2016-03-03 00:10:27 100 blocks on the button 19 hours should be 114! sweet. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficultyBitcoin Difficulty: 163,491,654,909 Estimated Next Difficulty: 158,194,280,601 (-3.24%)--------- this is too high Adjust time: After 186 Blocks, About 1.3 days Hashrate(?): 1,135,623,015 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 10.2 minutes 3 blocks: 30.6 minutes 6 blocks: 1.0 hours |
|
|
|
Mikestang
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1274
Merit: 1000
|
|
March 03, 2016, 07:52:21 PM |
|
This period is looking much more promising than the last several adjustments. I have getting afraid that 200G diff was right around the corner. Hopefully diff will stay level/slightly negative for the next couple periods. Although if we see new chip tech go public before the halving, watch out...
|
|
|
|
|
notlist3d
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1000
|
|
March 03, 2016, 08:26:08 PM |
|
I really hope I win. Not because of the prize, and not because our cats love fishy treats.
I want to win because my pick is the largest negative value.
Of course I'd be just as happy if I lose because the difficulty goes down even more than our cats' guess.
If you win it's kinda a win for all miners. To get a negative in that teritory would be great. I would love to see it after how difficulty has been lately. I do wonder what's causing it though. I wish we knew this part. What caused us to not surge this period and go into negative... and also how long term is this going to happen. I have no idea WTF but it is very nice to see. https://blockchain.info/blocks400998 (Main Chain) 2016-03-03 18:59:39 400899 (Main Chain) 2016-03-03 00:10:27 100 blocks on the button 19 hours should be 114! sweet. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficultyBitcoin Difficulty: 163,491,654,909 Estimated Next Difficulty: 158,194,280,601 (-3.24%)--------- this is too high Adjust time: After 186 Blocks, About 1.3 days Hashrate(?): 1,135,623,015 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 10.2 minutes 3 blocks: 30.6 minutes 6 blocks: 1.0 hours WTF really is a good question. Price is 416 so dropped... but I think don't think that causes stop from big jumps in difficulty to negative. I can think of a few ideas.... but none of them make sense. People turning off gear... I don't see it as I think almost all will have info-structure they will put in new gear when old gear is done. There is still a lot of A1's I suspect plugged in at very cheap electricity, some day they will come off but is it happening now? I don't know. Big data centers buying gear to get last roi before having? Again I'm not sure... I can see it happening. A lot of these I would think are in talks with Bitfury, and that scares me. I keep thinking one day we will see news of bitfury shipping gear..... and that I think will make difficulty jump a good amount. Again I don't know. I really do want to know what is going on though. Just not enough facts right now to prove anything. |
|
|
|
|
philipma1957 (OP)
Legendary
Online
Activity: 4116
Merit: 7824
'The right to privacy matters'
|
|
March 03, 2016, 11:10:56 PM |
|
https://blockchain.info/blocks401027 (Main Chain) 2016-03-03 22:51:10 400899 (Main Chain) 2016-03-03 00:10:27 129 blocks in 23 hours and 10 minutes we should be at 139 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficultyBitcoin Difficulty: 163,491,654,909 Estimated Next Difficulty: 158,379,381,077 (-3.13%) Adjust time: After 156 Blocks, About 1.1 days Hashrate(?): 1,134,494,487 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 10.2 minutes 3 blocks: 30.6 minutes 6 blocks: 1.0 hours since there are 156 blocks left we would need to do them in about 12 hours to go to a positive.
|
|
|
|
notlist3d
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1000
|
|
March 04, 2016, 03:51:20 AM |
|
https://blockchain.info/blocks401027 (Main Chain) 2016-03-03 22:51:10 400899 (Main Chain) 2016-03-03 00:10:27 129 blocks in 23 hours and 10 minutes we should be at 139 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficultyBitcoin Difficulty: 163,491,654,909 Estimated Next Difficulty: 158,379,381,077 (-3.13%) Adjust time: After 156 Blocks, About 1.1 days Hashrate(?): 1,134,494,487 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 10.2 minutes 3 blocks: 30.6 minutes 6 blocks: 1.0 hours since there are 156 blocks left we would need to do them in about 12 hours to go to a positive. I really want a negative just to see one again. I still don't know what is going on to slow down so much. I think this is the calm before another storm. And I could be wrong and hope I am. But I think hashing jumps will be back especially once next gen hit's spec and starts shipping big. |
|
|
|
|
philipma1957 (OP)
Legendary
Online
Activity: 4116
Merit: 7824
'The right to privacy matters'
|
|
March 04, 2016, 04:17:11 AM |
|
https://blockchain.info/blocks401059 (Main Chain) 2016-03-04 04:06:40 401034 (Main Chain) 2016-03-04 00:06:53 26 blocks in the time it takes 25 blocks yesterday numbers https://blockchain.info/blocks/1456978445826401033 (Main Chain) 2016-03-03 23:41:10 400899 (Main Chain) 2016-03-03 00:10:27 135 blocks -9 we are negative -71 blocks -138 -3 partial day -6 so I used -3 152 +8 +5 running total 134 -10 -5 " " " " 125 -19 -24 " " " " 134 -10 -34 " " " " 117 -27 -61 " " " " 158 +14 -47 " " " " 141 - 3 -50 " " " " 143 -12 -51 137 - 7 -58 134 -10 -68 137 -7 -75 157 +13 -62 this is the big spike but the next day is very low 135 - 9 -71 a very low pace for today https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficultyBitcoin Difficulty: 163,491,654,909 Estimated Next Difficulty: 157,890,213,982 (-3.43%) this is niceAdjust time: After 125 Blocks, About 21.2 hours Hashrate(?): 1,146,356,810 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 10.2 minutes 3 blocks: 30.5 minutes 6 blocks: 1.0 hours Updated: 23:20 (45.0 seconds ago) so do we stay under 0 yes we would need to make those 125 blocks left in 9 hours which is not going to happen. I think -2 to -4 final picks -5.8 = edonkey -4.1 = blindminer
-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.6 = Kexkey
-3.4 = HerbPean
-3.1 = tertius993
-3.0 = wlefever
-2.9 = alh
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.7 = radiumsoup
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax-1.7 = zebedee -1.4 = bomberb17 -1.2 = philipma1957 this has my -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over. -1.0 = HagssFIN -0.9 = Witrebel (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" ) < correct -0.8 = vortexz -0.7 = ailikun -0.5 = alfacro -0.3 = RichBC -0.2 = sloopy 0.0 = adaseb +0.1 = mavericklm +0.4 = CrazyGuy +0.7 = Notlist3d +1.0 = tlhILwI +1.1 = fr4nkthetank +1.2 = vapourminer +1.3 = VRobb +1.4 = leowonderful corrected from +1.43 +1.5 = Amph +1.9 = tss +2.0 = ezeminer +2.2 = Valkir +2.5 = pusttiu +3.2 = Biodom +3.5 = Last of the V8s +4.2 = VirosaGITS +4.6 = kipper01 +7.1 = psi 11 or so are in the zone
|
|
|
|
Mikestang
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1274
Merit: 1000
|
|
March 04, 2016, 06:00:41 AM |
|
(-3.43%) this is nice
Well, it is nice relative to big double digit positive jumps, but the overall diff is still way ugly. I wish it would at least go under 150G; I would feel better knowing it was closer to 100G than 200G. |
|
|
|
|
|
RichBC
|
|
March 04, 2016, 07:35:37 AM |
|
Another quiet day yesterday with -6.25% 135 Blocks but again Today has got off to a brisk start with the Days run rate at the moment of +27%. It is dropping back but if we were to carry on at this sort of rate it could see us ending at -2.5%. However if the rate drops back to zero then we would end up at -3.5%. So just goes to show that even at this late stage how difficult this prediction is... Either way we will be finished before the end of the Day.
Rich
|
|
|
|
philipma1957 (OP)
Legendary
Online
Activity: 4116
Merit: 7824
'The right to privacy matters'
|
|
March 04, 2016, 11:59:23 AM |
|
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficultyBitcoin Difficulty: 163,491,654,909 Estimated Next Difficulty: 158,390,781,550 (-3.12%) >>>>>>> still good Adjust time: After 69 Blocks, About 11.7 hours Hashrate(?): 1,188,360,395 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 10.2 minutes 3 blocks: 30.5 minutes 6 blocks: 1.0 hours https://blockchain.info/blocks401116 (Main Chain) 2016-03-04 11:49:50 401034 (Main Chain) 2016-03-04 00:06:53 83 blocks in the time for 72 so pace quickened so maybe the 69 will take 10 hours not 11.7 if so we will be near -2.75% final picks -5.8 = edonkey -4.1 = blindminer
-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.6 = Kexkey
-3.4 = HerbPean
-3.1 = tertius993
-3.0 = wlefever
-2.9 = alh
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.7 = radiumsoup
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax-1.7 = zebedee -1.4 = bomberb17 -1.2 = philipma1957 this has my -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over. -1.0 = HagssFIN -0.9 = Witrebel (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" ) < correct -0.8 = vortexz -0.7 = ailikun -0.5 = alfacro -0.3 = RichBC -0.2 = sloopy 0.0 = adaseb +0.1 = mavericklm +0.4 = CrazyGuy +0.7 = Notlist3d +1.0 = tlhILwI +1.1 = fr4nkthetank +1.2 = vapourminer +1.3 = VRobb +1.4 = leowonderful corrected from +1.43 +1.5 = Amph +1.9 = tss +2.0 = ezeminer +2.2 = Valkir +2.5 = pusttiu +3.2 = Biodom +3.5 = Last of the V8s +4.2 = VirosaGITS +4.6 = kipper01 +7.1 = psi 11 or so are in the winning zone same as last night. good luck I wonder what we will do next jump? a -1.11% would be nice.
|
|
|
|
HerbPean
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1638
Merit: 1005
|
|
March 04, 2016, 04:05:29 PM |
|
LOL I have a feeling that I will finish second ... once again ! |
|
|
|
|
philipma1957 (OP)
Legendary
Online
Activity: 4116
Merit: 7824
'The right to privacy matters'
|
|
March 04, 2016, 04:27:41 PM |
|
LOL I have a feeling that I will finish second ... once again ! well at least you are still in action. very good chance https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficultyBitcoin Difficulty: 163,491,654,909 Estimated Next Difficulty: 158,327,247,354 (-3.16%) Adjust time: After 46 Blocks, About 7.8 hours ---------------- just 46 to go Hashrate(?): 1,171,997,009 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 10.2 minutes 3 blocks: 30.4 minutes 6 blocks: 1.0 hours |
|
|
|
|
Brob12321
|
|
March 04, 2016, 05:51:48 PM |
|
ahhh too bad I had a rollover from the last diff pick because my +20% is soooo off its not even funny lmao
|
|
|
|
|
adaseb
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3752
Merit: 1709
|
|
March 04, 2016, 08:28:20 PM |
|
I think the reason why the difficulty stayed the same is because if you look at ETH hashrate, it went up by 300,000MHs, which is about 15,000 280X, each 280X uses about 175 Watts so about 2,625,000 Watts which at 0.50W/GHS is about 5,250,000 GHS.
So its accounts for the 5PH/s loss in BTC hashrate.
|
|
|
|
|
