Bitcoin Forum

I read an article in the WSJ about the banking problems in Italy. The impact could be much worse than Greece for fiat currency. One could argue that debt based currency and intermediary parties are the main causes (Satoshi).
 
Are we going to see the next financial crisis this year? Do you think this will affect the bitcoin price this year?

It depends if most of people there will hug bitcoin and will devaluate their main currency just like Chinese did recently.

But prior that to happen, it will depends on how the government will handle those banking problems and how they will deal with the European Central Bank that follow Europen Union Rules.

That is a major problem and a good solution with fair consequences to all concern must be placed.

You`ll see something like back in 2008 in the US financial crisis.

It took 6 years minimum to recover a small movement to get things going - so think the same way for that country and its neighboring countries.

So yes, greece and other familiar countries that are with italy.

But to extend on this topic, it depends on how bad the italy bank sold bad products - if its the same way they did how the US did with MBS - then you can see a similar picture. Regardless it`s going take awhile to recover.

The US will have little impact because the US is the main currency that everyone falls under thats been as a world reserve currency.

It's a huge problem which will raise tensions between Roma and Frankfurt, but I don't see how it could have any effect on BTC. BTC and the € are not in the same boat.

The only thing that may happen is people moove their funds into bitcoin faster , this wont affect bitcoin value at all even if the demand becomes bigger, we are at the stable price already and the community is supporting this new value. Wont affect the price because the number of people that knows about bitcoin and are investing it arent soo many are just some. The financial problems is showing off at all countries if USA stop making wars they will see the problems coming as well, its insane to keep trying to hide the problems inside each country.

In my opinion, the financial crisis will not turn to be a major crisis that can no longer be solved. There are already some steps made to combat and solve this issue so as not to make it more degrading and turn the economy of UK upside down. Bitcoins price on the other hand will going to increase or decrease but it will not last for long since the price of bitcoins will go back sooner or later to the current price that it has now.

This will tremendously affect the price of bitcoin. I am seeing an increase in bitcoins price from a large demand of bitcoins from the affected countries. Having lost of faith for their fiat currency they will shift to bitcoin as it is more safer than gold. The financial crisis will benefit their citizens when they grab the opportunity when they put their trust in bitcoin and to the cryptocurrency economy.

It is a gigantic problem. Don't assume this one is easy to solve.

Italian banks have many hundreds of billions in toxic debts on their books and an increase in non performing loans.

These banks have issued bonds to raise capital, waiting for their share price to recover and economic growth to pick up.

The issued bonds are held by other eurozone countries, and most bank share prices are down well in excess of 70% since 2008.

Italy wants an old fashioned taxpayer funded bank bailout but new EU rules state that bond holders must take the first haircut, not the taxpayer.

So, either a) ailing German, French and Spanish banks take a hit, which they cannot afford to do, or b) Italian taxpayers do, changing the bail in laws in the process, giving the 5 Star movement a probable election victory and maybe the impetus to leave the EU.


As it drags on, this should see small inflows to bitcoin, but more to gold, but even more still to everything USD related, especially us treasuries.

Sooner or later, the next financial crises will unfold. In fact, it will not be a new crisis, but simply the logical continuation of the existing one from 2008/09, because none of the underlying problems has been solved - instead the global level of indebtedness has greatly increased since then. However it is very difficult to predict the time of onset and if it will be Italy or another country.

It is reasonable to assume that economic instability contributes to Bitcoin adoption, because Bitcoin is not subject to inflationary central bank policy. Therefore it can be considered a "safe haven" asset. The question is, if specific economic events really trigger an immediate increase of demand for Bitcoin. Such an effect was first claimed during the confiscation event in Cyprus. I'm a bit skeptical, if Bitcoin is really that widely known and accessible to function as fast vehicle for capital flight...

ya.ya.yo!

The next financial crisis could happen next year when the Britain declares Euro exit and financial institutions move out of UK.

Well, after Deutsche Bank reported a 98% decline in earnings, it is surely now inevitable that a bank crisis will hit the EU in the next 6 months.

Nothing can happen in the short term but a significant worsening. Their loan books & exposure are not going to fix themselves and the global macro growth environment is flatlining at best. The NIRP / ZIRP policy isn't going anywhere, and once the proverbial hits the fan, where & what are the mechanisms to soften the blow?

I'm getting very bearish.

And it is not just DB, its Banco Poplar & BMDP in Italy, it's Spanish banks and French banks. All with unenviable, toxic balance sheets, derivates exposures & NPL's.

Not really hearing it in the news but have to think that a liquidity event is not far off.

I'm not a trader but it would almost be a blanket EU bank short.

The bitcoin price rose many times in 2013 due to the financial crisis in Europe. This time, it could also rise a lot.

Does anybody remember how much the Italian lira was worth?
You needed to have thousands of lira, even to buy a bus ticket.
Italians are comfortable with currency devaluation, unfortunately they use the Euro now.

Well I hope you are right that the effect of that crisis will be the increase of bitcoins and not the other way around. But the financial crisis in Europe may not really affect the price of bitcoins. Since only a small number of people are engaging in bitcoins compare to the total affected individuals in their area.

Just like what i said before the increase or decrease on bitcoins for this year will be just temporary and it will return to the current price. But also it may not happen.

That would be more-or-less my take as well.  "It all depends"

As tabnloz and others have pointed out, the problems is huge and multi-dimensional.  Italy probably cannot sole these problems alone.  They will need help.  But, who will help them?  Would any help work?

I have no idea if BTC price would benefit in a severe banking crisis in Italy.  It's not a bad idea for any European (more so any Italian) to hold some BTC "just in case".

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Yes, tabnloz, I too am bearish.  Gold will hold its value once fiat becomes worth less or even worthless.

The Italian banks have problems for long time. Why have them explode and cause big problems to the country?

another bank in Italy has got problem, and one by one the economic of the country was got problem. i think in the end of this year, many people will loss their trust into their bank and their financial is getting worst. and maybe people will start to think about moving into another currency, in this situation, they moving into bitcoin. and this could be a good start for bitcoin to be another money that will use by people.

Gold will hold it's value but how do you buy gold with worthless fiat? People will start buying gold with bitcoins I presume, so that means we are looking at the long predicted one world currency...

I wish i could believe in bitcoin and have the guts of a man who sold his house for bitcoins. Then i would sell everything i can, withdraw everything i have in  the bank and i would buy bitcoins.

But man, i sure don't. That's not about bitcoin itself. That is because of the hackers, scammers, instadumpers and the low market depth...

USD is also losing and gaining value from time to time but it is nothing near bitcoin.

Bitcoin looks nice for a while since the last pump. (400>650) It still looked nice before the other pump. (200>400) But it didn't look that nice when it went 900>300.

if there is some financial trouble then it might inspire a little bitcoin pump. are any real people gonna convert their precious funds to bitcoin? I seriously, seriously doubt it. it's got a bunch more proving to do before it's the new gold.

There is no reason for banks to leave the UK any more then they would leave any country not in the EU.   Norway isnt in the EU or Switzerland, USA obviously isnt.  Sterling is a reserve currency in of itself, I think the integrity of the country, stability and regulation will have more determination to how much financing is done in the country vs the Euro or EU area just like every company decides around the world where it will do best.

  UK as the world 5th largest economy easily has enough weight to pull away without disintegration or significant damage, it may be at some cost but people are too absolute to say its all negative when every trade agreement includes positives and negatives for both sides.   UK will still trade with EU but not in a fixed universal agreement

if that news talk about China, maybe it will give an affect for bitcoin price. where there is the bigger population that using bitcoin.
but Italy? i think no. there's no effect.

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This may have been mentioned already, but today only one bank failed the European "Stress Tests" results that came out today:

Monte dei Paschi di Siena, a bank well-known for being in big trouble.  It's also the oldest (surviving) bank in the world.

Neither Douche Bank nor other worthy candidates failed the Stress Tests. 

Make that of it what you will.  Note that they lie too.  Beware.

The Italian banking crisis could affect the Euro price. It will drag down the Euro and people will buy bitcoin.

Vote for brexit has led to a renewed flare-up of anxiety about the European financial system, and it looks like Italy may be the next European country to face a crisis. Italian banks have about $400 billion in bad loans on their balance sheets, and markets have started to panic. That's Euro can be drag down.

The banking problems in Italy can hit really bad the euro,but i don`t think that there`s going to have any

impact over bitcoin price.Most of the large european banks have problems,but the European central bank will

help them with funds.

Well, I guess if the economic crisis in a country, the best way to secure your money is by investing into bitcoin, so I think this will make an impact on the price of bitcoin, and it will make a very good impact, perhaps the price of bitcoin will rise again with a high , and it could be the price of bitcoin until the price of $ 900

Seeing financial crisis or not within this year is not actual fact that can pump the bitcoin price because the recent greece financial crisis and brexit haven't affected the bitcoin price much as expected.

However if bitcoin can be brought down to even small level of citizens like farmers, local merchants and even a tea shop in every country than they may start saving in bitcoin rather than in their banks creating high demand of bitcoin and price may get pumped hard. And this can also save them from lossing all they have during such financial crisis in their country.

The financial crisis will not affect the bitcoin price too much. The bitcoin price is too volatile is too risky itself.

i heard about italian bank crysis and i hope italian can solve their bank crisis and especially italian can accepted bitcoin as other currency beside fiat. if italian accepted bitcoin, then bitcoin will be more good in future as italian is a country with good government and good people.

You are right but only 1 out of 10 people or maybe even much less will be buying bitcoin in a time like that. The rest will be buying USD. And if they mostly buy Usd, that may lower bitcoin price further instead of pumping it.

If next world crisis will happen it will affect on bitcoin's price foes sure. Didn't hear anything about situation with Italian banks. And I hope the situation like in Greece will never ever happen. We all remember what happen with world's economy that time. I think the European Union will help to Italy with it's financial problems if it happen.

Yea they have same problem like Greece corrupted MMF is destroying him but I didnt know about Italy banks system problems.I think that for Italy will be almost impossible to get rid of thaf debt and that bankrupt will come.EU dont have brain to save country.They are just destroying countries like example they send Greece to big debt and bankrupt.

exactly right, that's the only way will make some people trust to keep their money safe without worry would get inflation by economic crisis and i'm sure that day it will come.

No country ever tries to get rid of its debt.
They just keep rolling it over.
Think what would happen if America had to repay its debt.

The likes of Deutsche Bank have already tanked a shit ton...currently at €12, down from a 2013 high of €33......short now, and be prepared to be flushed out.....

(although I guess perhaps shorting the flush out might be a strategy)

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Here is a fairly in-depth article on the recent "Stress Test" on various European banks:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-31/news-flash-european-stress-test-results-didn%E2%80%99t-disclose-all-failed-banks

It's not just the Italian banks.  There are a lot of rotten banks in Europe.  If a severe financial event strikes Europe, there will be ugly problems.

At this point another financial crisis is unavoidable and this time it will be uglier than 2008. The upside is, you can always make money from that, and BTC is looking like an excellent hedge. The system is fucked and BTC is a good life saver.

I am on for a bet on further depreciation of the Euro. We saw some recovering from the Euro on Friday but only because the US GDP for the 2nd quarter was slightly lower than expected. Once the market absorb this news which I think it will starting from tomorrow the Euro will continue to depreciate. Even if the Italian bank crisis doesn't unfold soon still the euro will depreciate. The EU is with negative interest rates while US is on positive ones. It all depends from the politics of the central banks to know how the course of the currencies will go, the currency which has a positive interest rate should logically be more strong than that with a negative interest rate.

When the Italian bank problem materialises, the Euro will depreciate a lot as the Italian economy is big.

Bitcoin could be a safe store of value for countries with very high inflation. I think it is Argentina that has very high inflation and there are people that move their money into bitcoin to hold it's value. If bitcoin were more available to some of these countries, then it could prosper because it is not controlled by a government.

Unicredit shares have gone limit down ( - 7%) and been suspended, apparently a follow on from Fridays stress test result.


 

Italian banks problem is huge and it can begin huge financial and politic crisis
Due to last regulations ball-out is not permited,only ball in can be used.Ball in is collect money from banks shareholders and bonds holders,maybe great but bondhoders in italy are ordinary citzens,it is like savng account for them

Well all know what happened at Greece, Portugal has some issue with a bank sell that old costumers lost their finances, and the new owner said it would credit all the money they had, but looks like hasnt happen. I dont like what happened to Greece or even Portugal, both are facing financial problems and adjustements, that are making the people search for best place then bank to apply their savings, and those is bitcoin for sure.

The Italian bank crisis will only give europeans more money they need to spent to safe those banks.
The Citizens won't like it, but I don't think they will buy bitcoin instead.

If someone just write something in Wall Street Journal, it does not mean that something can happen. Italy has third largest economy in EU and eight largest economy in the world, in fact nothing can happen - bank market with so large economy is more or less stable. Look here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italy)   ;)

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The problems with Italian banks continue today:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-01/italian-banks-crash-despite-all-clear-eu-stress-tests

It seems no one over in Europe believes this crap about their banks being healthy.

Bitcoin is now down (vs. Friday) after a period of price stability, so it looks like BTC is not benefiting from Italian bank troubles now.

I don't think the bank problem is really that big.
In the worst case, if the banks are shortly before a collaps, the european central bank together with the italian government will give them money and buy their garbage papers.
The ezb simply can not let it happen that a bank their goes bankrupt.
No matter what the treaties say.
So it will not have any big impact on bitcoin.

Your mixing three aspects here, but only give a rationale for one of them (#2):

1) The magnitude of the Italian banking problem,
2) the possibility of the ECB to refinance collapsing banks or buying junk bonds in case of a collapse,
3) the impact of an Italian banking collapse on Bitcoin

You indirectly assume that an uncontrolled (i.e. without ECB intervention) collapse of the Italian banks would have a significant effect on Bitcoin. However, what makes you think that the majority of the Italian / European people will first think of Bitcoin (and not gold, for example) if banks are collapsing?

The argument that certain changes in fiat valuation of Bitcoin were the result of real world events (Cyprus expropriation, Brexit) has been widely circulated. However no proof for these assumptions was ever given.

ya.ya.yo!

While I agree that the impact on bitcoin is limited, it is still a large issue.

Problem being that the EU & its 'leadership' are fractured and the banking system is loaded to the gills with toxic debt, much like the rest of the world. (Debt is the reason for the decade long crisis. Global debt levels are so big even if every one had 100% of their income taxed, it would still take decades to repay).

Germany will never ever push for inflation after the Weimar experience. They are hardline and want weaker members to be prudent. Germany wants them to cede control of their economies to Brussels under a system where there is supposedly 1 Finance minister for the whole zone.

Others want intervention etc. Their political lives may depend on it. The populations of many weaker members want their own sovereignty and dont want unelected bureaucrats in Brussels dictating how they live. Two opposing ends of the spectrum.

The IMF was recently shown to have deliberately destroyed Greece to save the Euro & northern european banks. At some stage the weaker EU members will figure out they are better off out.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/28/imf-admits-disastrous-love-affair-with-euro-apologises-for-the-i/

A bit more doom porn from Zerohedge on Euro banks

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-02/european-bank-bloodbath-destroys-stress-test-credibility

edit / add :

BMPS -10%
POP EMILIA - 9.19%
BAPO - 7.11%
UNICREDIT - 6. 29% HALTED
MEDIOB - 6.18%
POP MILANO -6.78%
UBI - 4.97%

today.

and yesterday unicredit giant went down yet another 10%,it is effect of friday banks stress test
in ball-in depositors money can be used to fund banks,same like it was on Cyprus

It's even worse today, the European banks keep going down:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-03/european-banking-system-bloodbath-continues-post-stress-test

A sea of red the last 3 days...

A table from the article (European bank stock price losses in the past three days):

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/08/03/20160803_ITA3.jpg

A highlight to note: Deutsche Bank is down 6.8% over the past three days.  Ouch, that's going to hurt.

Most things have been in the red lately; oil, a majority of stocks, Bitcoin, some currencies, a lot of things are going downwards. I think we're on the cusp of a recession, if we aren't already in one, and chances are it is going to be far worse than 2008. We might see a really brutal recession as well, depending on how quickly and how hard it goes down.

Falling oil prices and bitcoin are the reasons. Because of problems with Russian world leaders have agreed on the price of oil falls, and the hacker attack on one of the exchanges and the theft of her large number of bitcoin cryptocurrency led to a drop in the market.

This will not happen. Otherwise the European union will collapse. In the offical figures, Italian banks have bad credits of more than 360 bln Euros.
When the ECB bails out the banks, it risks the money from all Europeans (again). This will strengthen the rising right-wing and radical parties all over Europe and there will be a lot of elections this and next year (Germany, France for instance).