Italian bank problems and bitcoin

[virtualx]

I read an article in the WSJ about the banking problems in Italy. The impact could be much worse than Greece for fiat currency. One could argue that debt based currency and intermediary parties are the main causes (Satoshi).
 
Are we going to see the next financial crisis this year? Do you think this will affect the bitcoin price this year?

[harizen]

Do you think this will affect the bitcoin price this year?

It depends if most of people there will hug bitcoin and will devaluate their main currency just like Chinese did recently.

But prior that to happen, it will depends on how the government will handle those banking problems and how they will deal with the European Central Bank that follow Europen Union Rules.

That is a major problem and a good solution with fair consequences to all concern must be placed.

[mrhelpful]

I read an article in the WSJ about the banking problems in Italy. The impact could be much worse than Greece for fiat currency. One could argue that debt based currency and intermediary parties are the main causes (Satoshi).
 
Are we going to see the next financial crisis this year? Do you think this will affect the bitcoin price this year?

You`ll see something like back in 2008 in the US financial crisis.

It took 6 years minimum to recover a small movement to get things going - so think the same way for that country and its neighboring countries.

So yes, greece and other familiar countries that are with italy.

But to extend on this topic, it depends on how bad the italy bank sold bad products - if its the same way they did how the US did with MBS - then you can see a similar picture. Regardless it`s going take awhile to recover.

The US will have little impact because the US is the main currency that everyone falls under thats been as a world reserve currency.

[countryfree]

It's a huge problem which will raise tensions between Roma and Frankfurt, but I don't see how it could have any effect on BTC. BTC and the € are not in the same boat.

[Doamader]

The only thing that may happen is people moove their funds into bitcoin faster , this wont affect bitcoin value at all even if the demand becomes bigger, we are at the stable price already and the community is supporting this new value. Wont affect the price because the number of people that knows about bitcoin and are investing it arent soo many are just some. The financial problems is showing off at all countries if USA stop making wars they will see the problems coming as well, its insane to keep trying to hide the problems inside each country.

[groll]

I read an article in the WSJ about the banking problems in Italy. The impact could be much worse than Greece for fiat currency. One could argue that debt based currency and intermediary parties are the main causes (Satoshi).
 
Are we going to see the next financial crisis this year? Do you think this will affect the bitcoin price this year?

In my opinion, the financial crisis will not turn to be a major crisis that can no longer be solved. There are already some steps made to combat and solve this issue so as not to make it more degrading and turn the economy of UK upside down. Bitcoins price on the other hand will going to increase or decrease but it will not last for long since the price of bitcoins will go back sooner or later to the current price that it has now.

[Xester]

I read an article in the WSJ about the banking problems in Italy. The impact could be much worse than Greece for fiat currency. One could argue that debt based currency and intermediary parties are the main causes (Satoshi).
 
Are we going to see the next financial crisis this year? Do you think this will affect the bitcoin price this year?

This will tremendously affect the price of bitcoin. I am seeing an increase in bitcoins price from a large demand of bitcoins from the affected countries. Having lost of faith for their fiat currency they will shift to bitcoin as it is more safer than gold. The financial crisis will benefit their citizens when they grab the opportunity when they put their trust in bitcoin and to the cryptocurrency economy.

[tabnloz]

It is a gigantic problem. Don't assume this one is easy to solve.

Italian banks have many hundreds of billions in toxic debts on their books and an increase in non performing loans.

These banks have issued bonds to raise capital, waiting for their share price to recover and economic growth to pick up.

The issued bonds are held by other eurozone countries, and most bank share prices are down well in excess of 70% since 2008.

Italy wants an old fashioned taxpayer funded bank bailout but new EU rules state that bond holders must take the first haircut, not the taxpayer.

So, either a) ailing German, French and Spanish banks take a hit, which they cannot afford to do, or b) Italian taxpayers do, changing the bail in laws in the process, giving the 5 Star movement a probable election victory and maybe the impetus to leave the EU.


As it drags on, this should see small inflows to bitcoin, but more to gold, but even more still to everything USD related, especially us treasuries.

[yayayo]

Are we going to see the next financial crisis this year? Do you think this will affect the bitcoin price this year?

Sooner or later, the next financial crises will unfold. In fact, it will not be a new crisis, but simply the logical continuation of the existing one from 2008/09, because none of the underlying problems has been solved - instead the global level of indebtedness has greatly increased since then. However it is very difficult to predict the time of onset and if it will be Italy or another country.

It is reasonable to assume that economic instability contributes to Bitcoin adoption, because Bitcoin is not subject to inflationary central bank policy. Therefore it can be considered a "safe haven" asset. The question is, if specific economic events really trigger an immediate increase of demand for Bitcoin. Such an effect was first claimed during the confiscation event in Cyprus. I'm a bit skeptical, if Bitcoin is really that widely known and accessible to function as fast vehicle for capital flight...

ya.ya.yo!

[Zaducis]

The next financial crisis could happen next year when the Britain declares Euro exit and financial institutions move out of UK.

[tabnloz]

Well, after Deutsche Bank reported a 98% decline in earnings, it is surely now inevitable that a bank crisis will hit the EU in the next 6 months.

Nothing can happen in the short term but a significant worsening. Their loan books & exposure are not going to fix themselves and the global macro growth environment is flatlining at best. The NIRP / ZIRP policy isn't going anywhere, and once the proverbial hits the fan, where & what are the mechanisms to soften the blow?

I'm getting very bearish.

And it is not just DB, its Banco Poplar & BMDP in Italy, it's Spanish banks and French banks. All with unenviable, toxic balance sheets, derivates exposures & NPL's.

Not really hearing it in the news but have to think that a liquidity event is not far off.

I'm not a trader but it would almost be a blanket EU bank short.

[Zaducis]

The next financial crisis could happen next year when the Britain declares Euro exit and financial institutions move out of UK.

The bitcoin price rose many times in 2013 due to the financial crisis in Europe. This time, it could also rise a lot.

[panju1]

Does anybody remember how much the Italian lira was worth?
You needed to have thousands of lira, even to buy a bus ticket.
Italians are comfortable with currency devaluation, unfortunately they use the Euro now.

[groll]

The next financial crisis could happen next year when the Britain declares Euro exit and financial institutions move out of UK.

The bitcoin price rose many times in 2013 due to the financial crisis in Europe. This time, it could also rise a lot.

Well I hope you are right that the effect of that crisis will be the increase of bitcoins and not the other way around. But the financial crisis in Europe may not really affect the price of bitcoins. Since only a small number of people are engaging in bitcoins compare to the total affected individuals in their area.

Just like what i said before the increase or decrease on bitcoins for this year will be just temporary and it will return to the current price. But also it may not happen.

[OROBTC]

Do you think this will affect the bitcoin price this year?

It depends if most of people there will hug bitcoin and will devaluate their main currency just like Chinese did recently.

But prior that to happen, it will depends on how the government will handle those banking problems and how they will deal with the European Central Bank that follow Europen Union Rules.

That is a major problem and a good solution with fair consequences to all concern must be placed.

That would be more-or-less my take as well.  "It all depends"

As tabnloz and others have pointed out, the problems is huge and multi-dimensional.  Italy probably cannot sole these problems alone.  They will need help.  But, who will help them?  Would any help work?

I have no idea if BTC price would benefit in a severe banking crisis in Italy.  It's not a bad idea for any European (more so any Italian) to hold some BTC "just in case".

*   *   *

Yes, tabnloz, I too am bearish.  Gold will hold its value once fiat becomes worth less or even worthless.

[Zefasen]

The Italian banks have problems for long time. Why have them explode and cause big problems to the country?

[ethereumhunter]

another bank in Italy has got problem, and one by one the economic of the country was got problem. i think in the end of this year, many people will loss their trust into their bank and their financial is getting worst. and maybe people will start to think about moving into another currency, in this situation, they moving into bitcoin. and this could be a good start for bitcoin to be another money that will use by people.

[Gahs]

Yes, tabnloz, I too am bearish.  Gold will hold its value once fiat becomes worth less or even worthless.

Gold will hold it's value but how do you buy gold with worthless fiat? People will start buying gold with bitcoins I presume, so that means we are looking at the long predicted one world currency...

[mindrust]

I wish i could believe in bitcoin and have the guts of a man who sold his house for bitcoins. Then i would sell everything i can, withdraw everything i have in  the bank and i would buy bitcoins.

But man, i sure don't. That's not about bitcoin itself. That is because of the hackers, scammers, instadumpers and the low market depth...

USD is also losing and gaining value from time to time but it is nothing near bitcoin.

Bitcoin looks nice for a while since the last pump. (400>650) It still looked nice before the other pump. (200>400) But it didn't look that nice when it went 900>300.

[European Central Bank]

if there is some financial trouble then it might inspire a little bitcoin pump. are any real people gonna convert their precious funds to bitcoin? I seriously, seriously doubt it. it's got a bunch more proving to do before it's the new gold.