Bitcoin Forum

https://btcmanager.com/quinlan-associates-bitcoin-price-will-crash-1800-2018/



Who are these people? I’ve never heard of them before.

after significant testing? well I would hate to disappoint them, but the markets have been significantly testing bitcoin for a few years now and they came to the conlcusion that it should be priced between 13k and 14k USD. Some more testing is planned though and we will see what will be the end result but surely not that stupid quote from Quinlan Associates.

Yeah well, everything can change in here, but for me, $1800 is such a low price, and honestly, i do not think that it will happen.

Obviously that seeing it from a technical point of view, it can really happen if the "bubble" suddenly crashes, but for me, it is almost impossible to have crash at this point, because we did not even get the media attention.

Let's see how it goes, but i am a 99% sure that it wont happen, at least, not for now.

I don't think that these people have any authority to claim this... it sounds like a "best guess attempt" to me not to say psychological terrorism. Bitcoin may retrace but never lose 90% of its current value.

$1,780 is a pretty specific number. That’s different from saying it will drop by half or 70% or whatever. For supposed experts that can predict an exact price amount, I have never heard anything about them and I follow bitcoin news as a hobby.

Sounds again, like some want to buy Bitcoin cheap via manipulative predictions. But if they are serious, we should remember, that the Bitcoin price was 800$ last year. As we are still at beginning with a growing popularity, I can't imagine to see Bitcoin drop so far.

At the moment, this looks like an unlikely event. Given the huge demand of crypto, I would expect bitcoin will find its supporting line around 8k-10k. Unless some significant event happens, like a quantum computing break through that leads to easy cracking of bitcoin private keys :)

Is that even possible? how do they conduct their analysis? Well, I don't want say it is impossible but demand of bitcoin is still increasing when there are more and more new projects appear and use bitcoin as payment. Moreover, people who are new in bitcoin, would likely buy some to experience what bitcoin is

it is very funny that some people (like buffett) says bitcoin is going to zero, some people(like charlie) says bit coin is going to reach a million in 10 years. just keep opinion to yourself, time will prove the truth

It doesn't seem to be any close to reality but I do like this kind of news. It will make a lot of people out which is good )

Quinlan who? Not even Wall Street heavyweights can dampen the enthusiasm of people on bitcoins right now. Did they make a prediction for 2017?

Neither I never heard Quinlan Associates. But I believe if the company estimates the Bitcoin for an utilized payments system, for now, it's really bad, No wonder they make that estimated price. but personally, its too low if we judge Bitcoin as the whole ecosystem.

Actually, I agree about the cryptocurrencies with strong foundations and a clear utility will survive trough bloodbath and Bitcoin Price Spikes, and the scam coin will be useless.

these are some random dudes from Hong Kong who are trying to advertise more for their firm by using the hot topic of these days.

there is not much explanation about how they came up with these numbers, we have to take their word for it and assume their "calculations" are true! most probably they looked at some charts and saw the 2013 thing and then drew some lines on the chart and came up with the specific number $1,780!

It would be a lot more specific if they said the exact date when that is going to happen, but I agree with you it is quite specific.

Now they only have to put their money where they mouth is. I would like to see proof that they have gone all in betting against bitcoin to give some credibility to that. If they are so sure they can even take loans, even mortgage their homes, to bet against bitcoin.

Yeah, I checked out their website and they're apparently a strategy consultation firm which specializes in financial services.

They do seem to have an explanation about how they came up with their numbers though, as they came out with a 156-page report. I can't find a full copy because it seems to be up for sale, but here is one with the first 36 pages:

https://www.quinlanandassociates.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Quinlan-Associates-Fools-Gold-Sample-Pages.pdf

They apparently tried to calculate Bitcoin's true value, which I think is an impossible task because there will always be demand as a factor. This could be a publicity stunt as you have suggested, but they're going to look like fools if their prediction falls flat in its face, which is the most likely scenario.

Bitcoin may come down below 10 thousand dollars that too in very unlikely yet for some time demand is bombarding day by day it will be spike in prices

I never heard of that group. I think it is just another propaganda against bitcoin. If they think they can influence people to dump their bitcoin because of their report well they will be disappointed.

That’s a good find, thanks. They do appear to have studied crypto based on that table of contents. I would love to find a full copy of that book online. They certainly seem to have taken every aspect of the cryptocurrency ecosphere into account.

They will fall victim to the same issues all financial analysts encounter, complexity and externalities. Whether they’re studying cryptocurrency, a specific stock market or an individual governments economy there are too many unforeseen variables to predict a specific outcome. They couldn’t possibly know the depth of collusion between members of the mining cartel, the level of fraudulent market manipulation happening between all of the exchanges or the hidden criminal activities creating demand that are fueling the price climb. If the book were written by government analysts for an organization like the CIA I might believe they have a chance at being right (but they wouldn’t release the info, it would be top secret and used for raids like BTCe). A private sector firm getting it right, no way.

soo.. blockchain is 151 GB as of today, how big is that poor brochure i wonder

Nothing more than publicity stunt. No way btc is going any where below 5000$ for this year for sure. Infact going below 10k is also very difficult unless few major countries go against btc and this can cause some problems for this coin. Else it is good to keep investing in btc and other cypto currencies for this year.

Goldman Sachs gave up their predictions around the $4000 ish mark. Why should be listen to anyone else? It'll do what it's going to do. That price is possible. It would be a deeper fall than 2013 but not by very much, but it'll take something pretty radical for it to happen.

$1800 is a pretty low amount of money, and if it happens, i will just sell all my stuff and buy as many bitcoins as i can, who knows if in a few years after you buy the price makes another x10? I do not know, but for me, the price can not drop anymore.

Though all of this could be argued since all of them are just mere predictions. But from the article in the OP, giving the exact amount would be very intriguing. I am not aware of what really happened about the 2013 crash, I know it involved Mt. Goxx but I have no idea about the details. Supposing that 2018 will be like 2013, wouldn't it much more practical to drop at around 10k - 8k rather than that very low price? I mean, come on. Would whales and strong investors would wait for the price to reach that bottom. Seeing BTC at 10k would be a good entry point for them, right?

Perhaps you've yet to witness a full on panic. Emotions turn on a dime. The people boasting about 'buying the dip' run screaming when it becomes real. Only the people without emotions, the real traders, are the ones who buy at the absolute bottom. Every other mug waits for it gain a few tens of per cent.

Everyone likes to boast about their muscular trading plans when it's a on rip. They turn to dust when fear descends.

The 2011 bubble went from $32 to $2.

Each one is completely different of course so there's no way of knowing, but the one thing that doesn't change is human nature which is what gives birth to bubbles in the first place.

We still don't really know what role Gox played in the lead up to the 2013 bubble. We certainly know about its role in its deflation though.

I can see more and more news like that.
Even at my local bitcoin exchange there is a warning that investing in Bitcoin might not be the safest investing option
and the high price we currently have is most likely a bubble and soon we will see a severe correction.
With enough of bullshit flying around people would start to believe in all negative news and will follow anti-bitcoin propaganda.

A conscientious exchange!  Now that’s news. If you don’t mind me asking, which one is it?

Ever since I got in the world of crypto, there are two types of people that I found so far:

1. People who creates FUD.
2. People who wants to start a FOMO train.

But my whole conclusion is; these two types of people and the world of crypto is a PARADOX.

The only people who care, are those who need to sell or buy. The crypto ecosystem is on an unstoppable path. Even if the entire world bans ICOs, centralized exchanges, and all of SegWit is stolen and BTC is reverted to Satoshi’s protocol, there are developments in the ecosystem that will continue the march forward. All of those adverse events could set us back into another 2 - 3 year crypto winter if they’re severe and widespread. Seems though far-fetched or premature at this time. We should be climbing a wall of worry heading towards the nosebleed level that eventually does lead to the next crypto winter. Feels more like a bear trap in a vertical market, although the severity of the correction is alarming and we should give some weight to the possibility that we’re in the start of another crypto winter.


And the 2013 bubble from $1200 to $150. So the winters are becoming more shallow (and less V shaped with a longer duration for new ATHs) which is to be expected from a maturing and larger ecosystem. So the next crypto winter may only be a shallower decline but may require years for a new ATH? If we drop through the long-term support ~$7000, then I will be worried that new ATHs could be years from now.

There is no accurate measurement of the market that is existing today, because real time changes are what determines all of the cryptocurrencies value. But influences and media can affect the soem deciosion and some perspective and it might shake some traders sometimes.

I never heard of them before but there are so many people these days that is keep popping out and say something to cryptocurrencies, i don't know are pulling the strings behind or is this a government propaganda? The only bloodbath that I'm seeing here is that the arguments of people itself in the pros and cons of the cryptocurrency world. Price correction is scary but usage correction is more scarier.

no you are not right. There is a very accurate measurement. Market IS THE measurement. Whatever price there is currently that is the price that incorporated all: the FUD around bitcoin, expectations, influences and media.

1800$ -- That's not possible.. In its worst case, it would fall to 5000$ maybe (that too is when China and South Korea will be taken out of the equation by their govrnements...

This is just creating FUD... There has been a sea of people joining the crypto world now and that is disruptive to the powers of this world. creating such news and FUD is a way for them to control us.

don't give in to the fear and also to your greed. 

What is this 'cost of production' crap I keep hearing. There is no such thing as a cost of production. Its a variable chosen entirely by an algorithm based on how many competitors there are. Lets say all the miners went out of business and there was just one guy left mining bitcoin on his laptop. His cost of production would be 0.

Maybe Strain Associates will know better?  :P

I do believe bitcoin would crash but i think not to that very extent. Because bitcoin maybe in conflict with the law but it has many rich investors and you cant just destroy something that makes rich people rich.

Quinlan Associates, huh. They lost any semblance of credibility in my eyes for at least two items. The first, dark market use. They have to be seriously outdated in their research data if they still believe dark market provides any significant use for Bitcoin. It was already displaced by Ethereum all the way back in 2016, and after last year's enforcement stings on the top dogs, it's extremely difficult to see how Bitcoin can still play a role beyond the tiniest ones there.

Second point that grinds my gears isn't really a point, just their choice of phrase: "Critical bloodbath"

Can't believe you actually have to pay to see their exact methods for coming to their conclusion. Makes me want to enter the consultancy business.

well theoretically it is possible. You know, back there in 2015 bitcoin hit a 1000 USD mark and later it significantly dropped, to levels as low as 600 and later 200 USD. It stayed there quite long, if I can remember well it took one year for bitcoin to recover.

So if you add one "0" to the price, these are the levels we are currently in (10,000 levels) and I think it can drop to 6000 and later maybe to 2000.

Also, at the time it was 1000 it had proportionally even less media coverage (read: FUD) than it has now.

EDIT: but, of course, I am hoping it is not happening again.

Oh yeah bro, you do want to be a consultant. It’s estimated that globally all major consulting firms combined, like Deloitte, make somewhere near $200 billion dollars a year, they don’t produce a product and are wrong half the time. They generally have no better outcome than guesswork can produce.

Looooooooooooool
You read that guys? We're all here trying to figure out what the hell will happen but those guys have been able to do "significant testing"! How lucky now there is no longer any doubt about what will happen, great no?

That's stupid. If there is one thing you learn in crypto it's that you can't predict anything in crypto.
Too much innovation, too small market.

No one can predict bitcoin priced. It might fall but not $1,800 because popularity of bitcoin is very powerful now. Many people wants to destroy it because of priced last year.

I read the article while their predictions are low, at the same time I cannot argue with them in several points, we know we are in a bubble, we do not know if we hit the floor yet but it was clear bitcoin could not be worth 20k, now they are not predicting bitcoin is going to disappear just that the bubble will burst and then and even bigger growth will follow, this seems about right if you ask me, the only aspect in which most of the forum members will disagree is the price at which they think bitcoin will hit rock bottom.

How come! You don't know them!? They are Wall Street consultancy firm Quinlan Associates. The big bold name says everything.

Ops - me too never heard of them  ;D

However, I can make a guess.

These are the same people who are telling it's a bubble, it's a bubble  ;D This is what I mean

These are the people like Warren Buffett "In terms of cryptocurrencies generally I can say almost with certainty that they will come to a bad ending. Now when It happens or how or anything else I don't know" In reply of the interviewers he also said, "I get enough trouble with the things I know something about why in the world should I take a long or short position with something that I don't know anything about..."

I do not blame him, he is an old school. He should not know anything about even how to check an email.

I think I just realised something about these people...

These people are one step ahead then Warren Buffett coz they know the price and the year but Warren Buffett still do not know when it will happen.

I've never heard of them either. But it's opinionated nonetheless.

What they are saying could make sense. A crypto bloodbath could happen this year since usually the performance of bitcoin is very poor after a year of huge pumps, such as last year. Just like 2014 was pretty much only doom and gloom.

And what they are saying about the rebound when market matures again and halving cycle comes round again is true as well.

The only thing I disagree with is the pricing. $1.8k is way too low. I'd say $4k is the rock bottom for this year, and it may not be hit for the entire year.

Even if we were in a bubble, how does that make it possible for bitcoin to crash to $1,800? That is pretty much absurd. So, in that case, what happened to all those support we had back when bitcoin bounced from $2900 during the china palaver, when bitcoin rallied around $5000 to and fro and so on.

Hence, we will just keep popping those supports like soda and keep going down? I am sure they are just some bunch of old associates who are still connected with the old world and have nothing to offer in this new age except to create some nuisance.

Probably I may have to start considering this to. The only thing that perturbs me though is the fact that some people still keep listening to them when their words should be taken as nothing. Since all they do is guesswork and hoping that one day, they can come tell you something like; 'I told you so', they are just set of craps to me. Only that they always find some excuses to justify their stupidity anyway.

Nobody heard of them and yet a piece of crap news like that is being discussed on the forums and posted on news outlets. :D
To me it's a nice example of how rumors spread. Maybe we should start our own group that's going to flood the news with rumors of an incoming fiat money crash and banks going belly up.

Is there no worst thing some of them have said in the past? When relating it to where we are today? They will always say shitty things and people like this will always from nowhere give themselves some title all in the name of giving assumptions, but do they really make any sense? I guess not! And as an investor, I would rather not consider whatever they have said as anything sensible at all. You said it yourself, $1,800 is just way too low, and that shows how disconnected they are to reality.

They are the set of people who are always fine with spreading of FUDs than using their sense to talk. I am sure they just want to gain some relevance in the market, and they already have it. I do not know them either and I really do not want to know them. If you take a look at it, most of them are just stupidly ignorant and rather than keep their mouth shut until when they get into their coffin since they have limited number of years anyway, they always just want to talk. Old cargoes!