Quinlan Associates: Bitcoin Price will Crash to $1,800 in 2018

[QuestionAuthority]

“As an asset, we valued Bitcoin using a cost of production approach and a store of value approach, resulting in values of $2,161 and $687 respectively. To value BTC as a currency, we estimated its utilisation for both legal, retail transaction payments, as well as payments in the black market. After significant testing, we calculated the price of BTC to be $1,780.”

‘In the short term, Quinlan Associates sees nothing but a period of a critical bloodbath for bitcoin and the crypto ecosystem as a whole. However, the firm opined that the market would be rebound after the crash to experience another period of growth triggered by cryptocurrencies with strong foundations and a clear utility

https://btcmanager.com/quinlan-associates-bitcoin-price-will-crash-1800-2018/



Who are these people? I’ve never heard of them before.

[bug.lady]

after significant testing? well I would hate to disappoint them, but the markets have been significantly testing bitcoin for a few years now and they came to the conlcusion that it should be priced between 13k and 14k USD. Some more testing is planned though and we will see what will be the end result but surely not that stupid quote from Quinlan Associates.

[minersday]

after significant testing? well I would hate to disappoint them, but the markets have been significantly testing bitcoin for a few years now and they came to the conlcusion that it should be priced between 13k and 14k USD.

Yeah well, everything can change in here, but for me, $1800 is such a low price, and honestly, i do not think that it will happen.

Obviously that seeing it from a technical point of view, it can really happen if the "bubble" suddenly crashes, but for me, it is almost impossible to have crash at this point, because we did not even get the media attention.

Let's see how it goes, but i am a 99% sure that it wont happen, at least, not for now.

[fabioganga]

“As an asset, we valued Bitcoin using a cost of production approach and a store of value approach, resulting in values of $2,161 and $687 respectively. To value BTC as a currency, we estimated its utilisation for both legal, retail transaction payments, as well as payments in the black market. After significant testing, we calculated the price of BTC to be $1,780.”

‘In the short term, Quinlan Associates sees nothing but a period of a critical bloodbath for bitcoin and the crypto ecosystem as a whole. However, the firm opined that the market would be rebound after the crash to experience another period of growth triggered by cryptocurrencies with strong foundations and a clear utility

https://btcmanager.com/quinlan-associates-bitcoin-price-will-crash-1800-2018/



Who are these people? I’ve never heard of them before.

I don't think that these people have any authority to claim this... it sounds like a "best guess attempt" to me not to say psychological terrorism. Bitcoin may retrace but never lose 90% of its current value.

[QuestionAuthority]

“As an asset, we valued Bitcoin using a cost of production approach and a store of value approach, resulting in values of $2,161 and $687 respectively. To value BTC as a currency, we estimated its utilisation for both legal, retail transaction payments, as well as payments in the black market. After significant testing, we calculated the price of BTC to be $1,780.”

‘In the short term, Quinlan Associates sees nothing but a period of a critical bloodbath for bitcoin and the crypto ecosystem as a whole. However, the firm opined that the market would be rebound after the crash to experience another period of growth triggered by cryptocurrencies with strong foundations and a clear utility

https://btcmanager.com/quinlan-associates-bitcoin-price-will-crash-1800-2018/



Who are these people? I’ve never heard of them before.

I don't think that these people have any authority to claim this... it sounds like a "best guess attempt" to me not to say psychological terrorism. Bitcoin may retrace but never lose 90% of its current value.

$1,780 is a pretty specific number. That’s different from saying it will drop by half or 70% or whatever. For supposed experts that can predict an exact price amount, I have never heard anything about them and I follow bitcoin news as a hobby.

[maeusi]

Sounds again, like some want to buy Bitcoin cheap via manipulative predictions. But if they are serious, we should remember, that the Bitcoin price was 800$ last year. As we are still at beginning with a growing popularity, I can't imagine to see Bitcoin drop so far.

[rainbow169]

At the moment, this looks like an unlikely event. Given the huge demand of crypto, I would expect bitcoin will find its supporting line around 8k-10k. Unless some significant event happens, like a quantum computing break through that leads to easy cracking of bitcoin private keys

[Arwinkim]

Is that even possible? how do they conduct their analysis? Well, I don't want say it is impossible but demand of bitcoin is still increasing when there are more and more new projects appear and use bitcoin as payment. Moreover, people who are new in bitcoin, would likely buy some to experience what bitcoin is

[summermint1315]

it is very funny that some people (like buffett) says bitcoin is going to zero, some people(like charlie) says bit coin is going to reach a million in 10 years. just keep opinion to yourself, time will prove the truth

[NatYaros]

“As an asset, we valued Bitcoin using a cost of production approach and a store of value approach, resulting in values of $2,161 and $687 respectively. To value BTC as a currency, we estimated its utilisation for both legal, retail transaction payments, as well as payments in the black market. After significant testing, we calculated the price of BTC to be $1,780.”

‘In the short term, Quinlan Associates sees nothing but a period of a critical bloodbath for bitcoin and the crypto ecosystem as a whole. However, the firm opined that the market would be rebound after the crash to experience another period of growth triggered by cryptocurrencies with strong foundations and a clear utility

It doesn't seem to be any close to reality but I do like this kind of news. It will make a lot of people out which is good )

[Nilda]

Quinlan who? Not even Wall Street heavyweights can dampen the enthusiasm of people on bitcoins right now. Did they make a prediction for 2017?

[vv181]

Neither I never heard Quinlan Associates. But I believe if the company estimates the Bitcoin for an utilized payments system, for now, it's really bad, No wonder they make that estimated price. but personally, its too low if we judge Bitcoin as the whole ecosystem.

Actually, I agree about the cryptocurrencies with strong foundations and a clear utility will survive trough bloodbath and Bitcoin Price Spikes, and the scam coin will be useless.

[pooya87]

these are some random dudes from Hong Kong who are trying to advertise more for their firm by using the hot topic of these days.

there is not much explanation about how they came up with these numbers, we have to take their word for it and assume their "calculations" are true! most probably they looked at some charts and saw the 2013 thing and then drew some lines on the chart and came up with the specific number $1,780!

[Don Pedro Dinero]

$1,780 is a pretty specific number. That’s different from saying it will drop by half or 70% or whatever. For supposed experts that can predict an exact price amount, I have never heard anything about them and I follow bitcoin news as a hobby.

It would be a lot more specific if they said the exact date when that is going to happen, but I agree with you it is quite specific.

Now they only have to put their money where they mouth is. I would like to see proof that they have gone all in betting against bitcoin to give some credibility to that. If they are so sure they can even take loans, even mortgage their homes, to bet against bitcoin.

[jseverson]

these are some random dudes from Hong Kong who are trying to advertise more for their firm by using the hot topic of these days.

there is not much explanation about how they came up with these numbers, we have to take their word for it and assume their "calculations" are true! most probably they looked at some charts and saw the 2013 thing and then drew some lines on the chart and came up with the specific number $1,780!

Yeah, I checked out their website and they're apparently a strategy consultation firm which specializes in financial services.

They do seem to have an explanation about how they came up with their numbers though, as they came out with a 156-page report. I can't find a full copy because it seems to be up for sale, but here is one with the first 36 pages:

https://www.quinlanandassociates.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Quinlan-Associates-Fools-Gold-Sample-Pages.pdf

They apparently tried to calculate Bitcoin's true value, which I think is an impossible task because there will always be demand as a factor. This could be a publicity stunt as you have suggested, but they're going to look like fools if their prediction falls flat in its face, which is the most likely scenario.

[bitcoinveda]

Bitcoin may come down below 10 thousand dollars that too in very unlikely yet for some time demand is bombarding day by day it will be spike in prices

[Nerman]

I never heard of that group. I think it is just another propaganda against bitcoin. If they think they can influence people to dump their bitcoin because of their report well they will be disappointed.

[QuestionAuthority]

these are some random dudes from Hong Kong who are trying to advertise more for their firm by using the hot topic of these days.

there is not much explanation about how they came up with these numbers, we have to take their word for it and assume their "calculations" are true! most probably they looked at some charts and saw the 2013 thing and then drew some lines on the chart and came up with the specific number $1,780!

Yeah, I checked out their website and they're apparently a strategy consultation firm which specializes in financial services.

They do seem to have an explanation about how they came up with their numbers though, as they came out with a 156-page report. I can't find a full copy because it seems to be up for sale, but here is one with the first 36 pages:

https://www.quinlanandassociates.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Quinlan-Associates-Fools-Gold-Sample-Pages.pdf

They apparently tried to calculate Bitcoin's true value, which I think is an impossible task because there will always be demand as a factor. This could be a publicity stunt as you have suggested, but they're going to look like fools if their prediction falls flat in its face, which is the most likely scenario.

That’s a good find, thanks. They do appear to have studied crypto based on that table of contents. I would love to find a full copy of that book online. They certainly seem to have taken every aspect of the cryptocurrency ecosphere into account.

They will fall victim to the same issues all financial analysts encounter, complexity and externalities. Whether they’re studying cryptocurrency, a specific stock market or an individual governments economy there are too many unforeseen variables to predict a specific outcome. They couldn’t possibly know the depth of collusion between members of the mining cartel, the level of fraudulent market manipulation happening between all of the exchanges or the hidden criminal activities creating demand that are fueling the price climb. If the book were written by government analysts for an organization like the CIA I might believe they have a chance at being right (but they wouldn’t release the info, it would be top secret and used for raids like BTCe). A private sector firm getting it right, no way.

[manlyxman]

soo.. blockchain is 151 GB as of today, how big is that poor brochure i wonder

[onrise]

I never heard of that group. I think it is just another propaganda against bitcoin. If they think they can influence people to dump their bitcoin because of their report well they will be disappointed.

Nothing more than publicity stunt. No way btc is going any where below 5000$ for this year for sure. Infact going below 10k is also very difficult unless few major countries go against btc and this can cause some problems for this coin. Else it is good to keep investing in btc and other cypto currencies for this year.