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Author Topic: Quinlan Associates: Bitcoin Price will Crash to $1,800 in 2018  (Read 733 times)
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January 15, 2018, 06:19:59 PM
 #21

Goldman Sachs gave up their predictions around the $4000 ish mark. Why should be listen to anyone else? It'll do what it's going to do. That price is possible. It would be a deeper fall than 2013 but not by very much, but it'll take something pretty radical for it to happen.
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January 15, 2018, 06:29:45 PM
 #22

$1800 is a pretty low amount of money, and if it happens, i will just sell all my stuff and buy as many bitcoins as i can, who knows if in a few years after you buy the price makes another x10? I do not know, but for me, the price can not drop anymore.

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January 15, 2018, 07:03:20 PM
 #23

Goldman Sachs gave up their predictions around the $4000 ish mark. Why should be listen to anyone else? It'll do what it's going to do. That price is possible. It would be a deeper fall than 2013 but not by very much, but it'll take something pretty radical for it to happen.

Though all of this could be argued since all of them are just mere predictions. But from the article in the OP, giving the exact amount would be very intriguing. I am not aware of what really happened about the 2013 crash, I know it involved Mt. Goxx but I have no idea about the details. Supposing that 2018 will be like 2013, wouldn't it much more practical to drop at around 10k - 8k rather than that very low price? I mean, come on. Would whales and strong investors would wait for the price to reach that bottom. Seeing BTC at 10k would be a good entry point for them, right?
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January 15, 2018, 08:19:45 PM
 #24

I know it involved Mt. Goxx but I have no idea about the details. Supposing that 2018 will be like 2013, wouldn't it much more practical to drop at around 10k - 8k rather than that very low price? I mean, come on. Would whales and strong investors would wait for the price to reach that bottom. Seeing BTC at 10k would be a good entry point for them, right?

Perhaps you've yet to witness a full on panic. Emotions turn on a dime. The people boasting about 'buying the dip' run screaming when it becomes real. Only the people without emotions, the real traders, are the ones who buy at the absolute bottom. Every other mug waits for it gain a few tens of per cent.

Everyone likes to boast about their muscular trading plans when it's a on rip. They turn to dust when fear descends.

The 2011 bubble went from $32 to $2.

Each one is completely different of course so there's no way of knowing, but the one thing that doesn't change is human nature which is what gives birth to bubbles in the first place.

We still don't really know what role Gox played in the lead up to the 2013 bubble. We certainly know about its role in its deflation though.
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January 15, 2018, 09:59:11 PM
 #25

I never heard of that group. I think it is just another propaganda against bitcoin. If they think they can influence people to dump their bitcoin because of their report well they will be disappointed.


I can see more and more news like that.
Even at my local bitcoin exchange there is a warning that investing in Bitcoin might not be the safest investing option
and the high price we currently have is most likely a bubble and soon we will see a severe correction.
With enough of bullshit flying around people would start to believe in all negative news and will follow anti-bitcoin propaganda.


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January 16, 2018, 03:39:48 AM
 #26

I never heard of that group. I think it is just another propaganda against bitcoin. If they think they can influence people to dump their bitcoin because of their report well they will be disappointed.


I can see more and more news like that.
Even at my local bitcoin exchange there is a warning that investing in Bitcoin might not be the safest investing option
and the high price we currently have is most likely a bubble and soon we will see a severe correction.
With enough of bullshit flying around people would start to believe in all negative news and will follow anti-bitcoin propaganda.

A conscientious exchange!  Now that’s news. If you don’t mind me asking, which one is it?

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January 17, 2018, 07:00:05 PM
 #27

Ever since I got in the world of crypto, there are two types of people that I found so far:

1. People who creates FUD.
2. People who wants to start a FOMO train.

But my whole conclusion is; these two types of people and the world of crypto is a PARADOX.

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January 17, 2018, 07:47:07 PM
Last edit: January 17, 2018, 07:59:19 PM by CRED.me
 #28

The only people who care, are those who need to sell or buy. The crypto ecosystem is on an unstoppable path. Even if the entire world bans ICOs, centralized exchanges, and all of SegWit is stolen and BTC is reverted to Satoshi’s protocol, there are developments in the ecosystem that will continue the march forward. All of those adverse events could set us back into another 2 - 3 year crypto winter if they’re severe and widespread. Seems though far-fetched or premature at this time. We should be climbing a wall of worry heading towards the nosebleed level that eventually does lead to the next crypto winter. Feels more like a bear trap in a vertical market, although the severity of the correction is alarming and we should give some weight to the possibility that we’re in the start of another crypto winter.

The 2011 bubble went from $32 to $2.

And the 2013 bubble from $1200 to $150. So the winters are becoming more shallow (and less V shaped with a longer duration for new ATHs) which is to be expected from a maturing and larger ecosystem. So the next crypto winter may only be a shallower decline but may require years for a new ATH? If we drop through the long-term support ~$7000, then I will be worried that new ATHs could be years from now.
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January 17, 2018, 09:39:58 PM
 #29

I never heard of that group. I think it is just another propaganda against bitcoin. If they think they can influence people to dump their bitcoin because of their report well they will be disappointed.




There is no accurate measurement of the market that is existing today, because real time changes are what determines all of the cryptocurrencies value. But influences and media can affect the soem deciosion and some perspective and it might shake some traders sometimes.

I never heard of them before but there are so many people these days that is keep popping out and say something to cryptocurrencies, i don't know are pulling the strings behind or is this a government propaganda? The only bloodbath that I'm seeing here is that the arguments of people itself in the pros and cons of the cryptocurrency world. Price correction is scary but usage correction is more scarier.

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January 18, 2018, 10:46:08 AM
Last edit: January 18, 2018, 11:14:10 AM by Pan Troglodytes
 #30

I never heard of that group. I think it is just another propaganda against bitcoin. If they think they can influence people to dump their bitcoin because of their report well they will be disappointed.




There is no accurate measurement of the market that is existing today, because real time changes are what determines all of the cryptocurrencies value. But influences and media can affect the soem deciosion and some perspective and it might shake some traders sometimes.


no you are not right. There is a very accurate measurement. Market IS THE measurement. Whatever price there is currently that is the price that incorporated all: the FUD around bitcoin, expectations, influences and media.
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January 21, 2018, 11:40:37 PM
 #31

1800$ -- That's not possible.. In its worst case, it would fall to 5000$ maybe (that too is when China and South Korea will be taken out of the equation by their govrnements...

This is just creating FUD... There has been a sea of people joining the crypto world now and that is disruptive to the powers of this world. creating such news and FUD is a way for them to control us.

don't give in to the fear and also to your greed. 

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January 22, 2018, 11:16:37 AM
 #32

What is this 'cost of production' crap I keep hearing. There is no such thing as a cost of production. Its a variable chosen entirely by an algorithm based on how many competitors there are. Lets say all the miners went out of business and there was just one guy left mining bitcoin on his laptop. His cost of production would be 0.

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January 22, 2018, 11:35:45 AM
 #33

Maybe Strain Associates will know better?  Tongue

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January 22, 2018, 11:37:39 AM
 #34

I do believe bitcoin would crash but i think not to that very extent. Because bitcoin maybe in conflict with the law but it has many rich investors and you cant just destroy something that makes rich people rich.
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January 22, 2018, 12:33:29 PM
 #35

Quinlan Associates, huh. They lost any semblance of credibility in my eyes for at least two items. The first, dark market use. They have to be seriously outdated in their research data if they still believe dark market provides any significant use for Bitcoin. It was already displaced by Ethereum all the way back in 2016, and after last year's enforcement stings on the top dogs, it's extremely difficult to see how Bitcoin can still play a role beyond the tiniest ones there.

Second point that grinds my gears isn't really a point, just their choice of phrase: "Critical bloodbath"

Can't believe you actually have to pay to see their exact methods for coming to their conclusion. Makes me want to enter the consultancy business.

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January 22, 2018, 01:34:12 PM
 #36

1800$ -- That's not possible.. In its worst case, it would fall to 5000$ maybe (that too is when China and South Korea will be taken out of the equation by their govrnements...

This is just creating FUD... There has been a sea of people joining the crypto world now and that is disruptive to the powers of this world. creating such news and FUD is a way for them to control us.

don't give in to the fear and also to your greed.  
well theoretically it is possible. You know, back there in 2015 bitcoin hit a 1000 USD mark and later it significantly dropped, to levels as low as 600 and later 200 USD. It stayed there quite long, if I can remember well it took one year for bitcoin to recover.

So if you add one "0" to the price, these are the levels we are currently in (10,000 levels) and I think it can drop to 6000 and later maybe to 2000.

Also, at the time it was 1000 it had proportionally even less media coverage (read: FUD) than it has now.

EDIT: but, of course, I am hoping it is not happening again.

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January 22, 2018, 03:33:12 PM
 #37

Quinlan Associates, huh. They lost any semblance of credibility in my eyes for at least two items. The first, dark market use. They have to be seriously outdated in their research data if they still believe dark market provides any significant use for Bitcoin. It was already displaced by Ethereum all the way back in 2016, and after last year's enforcement stings on the top dogs, it's extremely difficult to see how Bitcoin can still play a role beyond the tiniest ones there.

Second point that grinds my gears isn't really a point, just their choice of phrase: "Critical bloodbath"

Can't believe you actually have to pay to see their exact methods for coming to their conclusion. Makes me want to enter the consultancy business.

Oh yeah bro, you do want to be a consultant. It’s estimated that globally all major consulting firms combined, like Deloitte, make somewhere near $200 billion dollars a year, they don’t produce a product and are wrong half the time. They generally have no better outcome than guesswork can produce.

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January 22, 2018, 04:01:28 PM
 #38

Looooooooooooool
You read that guys? We're all here trying to figure out what the hell will happen but those guys have been able to do "significant testing"! How lucky now there is no longer any doubt about what will happen, great no?

That's stupid. If there is one thing you learn in crypto it's that you can't predict anything in crypto.
Too much innovation, too small market.

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January 22, 2018, 07:29:41 PM
 #39

No one can predict bitcoin priced. It might fall but not $1,800 because popularity of bitcoin is very powerful now. Many people wants to destroy it because of priced last year.
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January 23, 2018, 05:17:04 AM
 #40

Quote
“As an asset, we valued Bitcoin using a cost of production approach and a store of value approach, resulting in values of $2,161 and $687 respectively. To value BTC as a currency, we estimated its utilisation for both legal, retail transaction payments, as well as payments in the black market. After significant testing, we calculated the price of BTC to be $1,780.”

‘In the short term, Quinlan Associates sees nothing but a period of a critical bloodbath for bitcoin and the crypto ecosystem as a whole. However, the firm opined that the market would be rebound after the crash to experience another period of growth triggered by cryptocurrencies with strong foundations and a clear utility
https://btcmanager.com/quinlan-associates-bitcoin-price-will-crash-1800-2018/



Who are these people? I’ve never heard of them before.
I read the article while their predictions are low, at the same time I cannot argue with them in several points, we know we are in a bubble, we do not know if we hit the floor yet but it was clear bitcoin could not be worth 20k, now they are not predicting bitcoin is going to disappear just that the bubble will burst and then and even bigger growth will follow, this seems about right if you ask me, the only aspect in which most of the forum members will disagree is the price at which they think bitcoin will hit rock bottom.
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