Bitcoin Forum

Too many people here make bad calls, do not own up to them, and repeat. Following them is dangerous to your financial health.    

Hence why I'm starting a list with forum members that stand out negatively as well as positively for me.  

For bad calls they get a minus, for good calls a plus. I quote the call below for reference and say what the price did afterwards.

If you want someone to be added to the list, simply quote the call from this person in a new post below, and say what the price did afterwards to prove that it was a good or bad call.

Rampion (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=80216): -1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276773.msg2954221#msg2954221), +1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276773.msg2954580#msg2954580), -1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276773.msg2954268#msg2954268),
thezerg (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=55749): +1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276773.msg2958496#msg2958496), -1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276773.msg2958108#msg2958108),
cypherdoc (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=8389): +1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276773.msg3006073#msg3006073), -1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276773.msg2971022#msg2971022), +1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276773.msg2970614#msg2970614), -1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276773.msg2970656#msg2970656)
doobadoo (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=13801): +1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276773.msg2970563#msg2970563)
rpietila (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=68520): +1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276773.msg3420643#msg3420643), -1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276773.msg2970792#msg2970792), +1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276773.msg2954580#msg2954580)
SlipperySlope (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=383): +1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276773.msg2970960#msg2970960)
Loozik (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=101803): +1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276773.msg2974329#msg2974329)
Odalv (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=82280): +1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276773.msg2989607#msg2989607)
Blitz (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=4475): -1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276773.msg2988812#msg2988812)
molecular (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=3771): +1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276773.msg2992289#msg2992289)
BrightAnarchist (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=694): -1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276773.msg3027959#msg3027959), +1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276773.msg3028186#msg3028186), +1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276773.msg3028671#msg3028671), -1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276773.msg3088863#msg3088863)
masterluc (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=144672) (used to be  Lucif (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=50218)): +1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276773.msg3028671#msg3028671)
adamstgBit (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=23281): +1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276773.msg3028144#msg3028144)
Vycid (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=89504): +1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276773.msg3362920#msg3362920)

Bad call by Rampion. After the market has gone up for many months in a row, parabolically, Rampion advises someone who considered selling at $175 to hold.

2 days later, on April 10th, the price peaked out at $266 and crashed to $105, only to end the day at $165.

It continued to go down the days after and bottomed around $50 only a week later.

Bad call by Rampion. While price had been dropping for 3 weeks in a row coming from $110, and was now in the $70's Rampion thinks price will go down even more to $50's. He says he does not buy at current price around $70 and might buy a little in $60's.

Price dropped to only $65 that day July 5th and strongly recovered the days and weeks after to $111 by July 31st.

A) Who cares?

B) Why not just make a thread that spotlights and praises people with a proven track record of making GOOD calls, instead of knocking down the ones who made bad guesses. I mean everyone here is just guessing when it comes to bitcoin anyway. You never know who is going to buy or sell, when, or how much.

EDIT: You shouldn't make your financial decision based on posts in this forum

Are you really going to do this because of that petty spat in lucif's thread? This a dick move, and frankly, it's pathetic. This forum is awash with bad predictions..... and you're going to make a thread about Rampion? Really uncalled for.

This is not related to that thread. I was wrong there and apologized to Rampion.

I don't think keeping track of people's calls is a dick move or pathetic.

We all do it automatically. I'd like to share my experience with others, and hope they will share theirs with me, so I can avoid people that are more wrong than right, and find the few diamonds in here.

I started using Rampion's calls as a contrarian indicator. Turning his calls upside down has definitely worked, as I prove here.


I do realise that those I call out here, might get angry or vengeful towards me. I'm sorry if I provoke those feelings but frankly I'm just quoting you and giving an objective price analyses.

I think it's important I do this as many have lost serious amounts of money here due to this practice, especially newbies.

I take Hulbert's report that documents past performance of newsletters and mutual funds as an example, as it has helped me a lot in knowing who to avoid, and who to follow. 

A) I care
b) I'm planning to add a lot more people, also ones that made many good calls.

This was a good call from both rpietila and Rampion.

Price peaked out that day at $166 and started falling the next day for weeks in a row to a low of $92 by May 4th.

But its SOOO much more fun to make the call, have everybody ignore you and then laugh as you take their coinz!  ;D

Posted when BTC was 87...

Good call indeed, price continued to go up from $87 to $111 by July 31st. :)

Added you to the list.


However, I checked your post history and found this call (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=85687.msg1797296#msg1797296) also made by you on April 10th:


This was a bad call. Indeed price had swung widely that day from the all time high of $266 to $105, closing the day at $165. I'm guessing your call was around $130 when you gave the advice to hang onto your coins. However price dropped every day after that to a low of $50 by April 16th.  

Guess you didn't see that one coming   :)

People already shouldn't be listening to speculation calls here as financial advice so technically they choose to do what they want and it's their risk. Seems pretty healthy to me. The weak hands let go for stronger hands to hold.

How about a track record for the dumbest threads ever.

RationalSpeculator +1

No, all I didn't see was the magnitude.  If you look at the post just before that one, I called a DDOS drop BEFORE the crash and recommend that people put in bids.  It may be a little unclear out of context (if you weren't trading at that point), but that post means to put bids in significantly BELOW the market price.  If you had sold around when I posted (to prepare for a DDOS buyback) the price would have been $230+ ($230 had some stability -- 260 was a hard-to-hit peak).  I bought back too early (due to the incredible lag you just had to guess what the price was going to be 15 minutes later when your trade actually made it through the queue) at $150 giving a profit of only $80 per coin.  When you want to lock in a profit, you err on the high side... and actually, my buys were staggered to catch the "DDOS" so I didn't do that well on every coin...

And as you can see by the post I was replying to, the price was already below $106 (probably FAR below given the velocity at that time).  I was essentially suggesting that people think really hard before selling below $90-100 -- and as you can tell by the words "fundamental value and promise" this was meant to be long term advice.  Judging by the oscillations in the next 6 months that has not been bad advice.

You can't quote a locked forum so here's the relevant profile page:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=55749;sa=showPosts;start=160


Let me raise you these (just quickly read the red and then you can go back and read the rest):



A key question I asked here is why everyone thinks that the mining halving will result in only a 2x price appreciation?  Why do they think the supply demand curve was 45 degrees?  And it was not; it was more like 10x ($10 to $100) price appreciation.

Ok... all done patting myself on the back.  Glad I got that out of my system; it just bugs me that some guys get so much attention b/c they post a lot.  I won't be quoting myself any more. 

PS:  If you start following me, my own experience is that I am better at calling bottoms than tops -- that is, I don't call a top when I should.

Indeed, people choose by their own risk who's opinion to value and who's opinion to ignore. I hope this thread helps them to make a better informed decision.

Thanks for making your case.

I agree that you called the DDOS attack and I will take your word for it that it was around $230.
 
However, what did you do with it? Did you advise to sell around $230? No, you did not. Here is what you said:




So you advised to buy more on a possible correction, as you expected price to continue to go higher than $250 after the DDOS drop.

If one followed you and bought successfully more coins at say $150 that day he did not make any profit. In fact he just lost on the coins he already owned, and now increased his position. After that the price did not go back up to $250 but ended the day around $165. And continued to drop every day after that to a low of $50 a week later. So following your advise given, would have only increased the total loss.

That was a very bad call. Predicting an event about to happen correctly (DDOS) has no value if you got the big picture wrong (price will continue to go up after that, while it actually continued to go down) and the chosen course of action (buy more) makes you lose even more money.  


About your second call during the drop to hold.

On the first day of the crash, April 10th, according to bitcoincharts data, mtgox price did not go below $105. So it is impossible that the price was below that when you advised to hold. Please explain, preferable with supportive data! Until then I have to dismiss your comment about that and will continue to use the price of $130 to use as the price when you placed your advise to hold. Note that weighted price of that day was $180, so I'm being generous already I think.  

Advising to hold at $130 that day was the right call as the day ended at $165. However next day it dropped to $124 and continued to close lower every day after.

Today, 4 months later, there have only been a few weeks where holding at $130 was the right decision, all the others showed a loss. I don't look at the future here, only at the past to evaluate calls.

I think it is fair to say that overall it was a bad call to hold at $130 on March 10th.


Summarized, you predicting the DDOS drop and a sharp correction correctly was an accomplishment but advising to buy more if it would happen, and during the correction you advising to hold, were both bad calls. I will keep this as one bad call since it was the same time period, even same day.

I hope you succeed in the future to also get the big picture right (that the bull market was over and a bear market would start) and that you choose the right course of action so that you help yourself and others to reduce losses instead of increasing them.

I will evaluate your other calls from 2012 in a next post.

You do realize that for someone to profit in trading, someone else has to lose, right?

Yes. Why you ask?

It sounded like you were saying it was a holy mission to correctly predict the market, and everybody would profit from this.

EDIT: maybe, to the extent that trading could be useful (in providing information to the economy), correctly predicting price based on value fundamentals is the best thing that a trader can do.

Here is my calls 100% trend accuracy:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=238095.msg2530362#msg2530362 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=238095.msg2530362#msg2530362)
Called the 0.0055 Bottom on LTC/BTC-https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=157440.msg1667644#msg1667644 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=157440.msg1667644#msg1667644)
 Called the buy signal on 3.17.2013 at 48.15 -https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=154119.msg1633552#msg1633552 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=154119.msg1633552#msg1633552)
 Called the correction from 49 to 33 -https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=149817.msg1591419#msg1591419 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=149817.msg1591419#msg1591419)
 Called the rally from 5.2 on 5.31.2012 -https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=96878.msg1067596#msg1067596 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=96878.msg1067596#msg1067596)

A great call indeed. :) Price went up after the halving from $10 peaking out at $266 4 months later. Added a plus to your name and congrats on helping others make some serious money :)

That could well have been me included as I entered around that period, and also read many posts here and came to the same conclusion. So thanks for sharing at the time :)



If we can't get it from others, we must give it to ourselves. Love starts with self love. :)

I understand your frustration totally. It also irritates me seeing the regulars here barely responding to my posts while at the same time being all excited with people that basically make a joke of this speculation board. I seem to be unable to connect with most of them. :(

I also get the impression that you are good at calling bottoms but haven't succeeded yet in calling tops (though I only studied some posts of yours). Good to see you are aware of your strengths and weaknesses. I'm curious to see how you will do in the future. :)

Thank you for responding and nice meeting you thezerg :)

RS

Actually I don't think anymore this was a good call. You don't make a call. From what I see, now that the price is back up to $87, you are laughing with people that sold their coins on the recent correction that bottomed at $65. You make no statement about future price expectations and whether to buy or sell. So I removed this plus.

If you disagree, I value your feedback.

Great call, doobadoo sold out at $236, and warned the others, price went up the day after to $266 and collapsed instantly to $105 only to close at $165, 6 days later it bottomed at $50.

Great call from cypherdoc, price averaged $2.6 that day april the 18th 2011. He warned the others that it would go up. Exactly 1 month later on November 18th 2011 it found it's bottom at $2 and went up strongly from there for 2 years in a row ending in the spike of $266 on april 10th 2013. To my knowledge he remained bullish and advised to buy the whole way up.

This was a bad call by cypherdoc. His letters above stand for 'Buy The Fucking Dip'. His corresponding paying newsletter made the case to buy on the correction that famous day of April 10th 2013 when the price peaked out at $266 and collapsed instantly. He advised his clients to buy that dip. Taking the average price of that day $184 as a buy in point led to huge losses as the price ended that day at $165 and continued to go down bottoming at $50 only 6 days later. Today, 4 months later, the price never touched that $184 again and stands currently at $103 (bitstamp). To my knowledge he has remained bullish, advising to buy, on the whole way down up until today.  

Thanks for informing. Would you be willing to follow the format to quote the call here, 1 call per post, and say why it was a good call, mentioning what the price did afterwards? That way I can easily add you to the list without spending too much time.  

This was a bad call by rpietila also made on that famous day of April 10th 2013 when price peaked out at $266. He advises to buy and forecasts the price to average around €533 the next 3 months.

Price started tumbling that day to a low of $50 only 6 days later, taking the average price of $184 of that day, this buy signal led to huge losses.

The average price the next 3 months turned out to be around $100 or €75 instead of €533.

Great call from SlipperySlope. When price was at $140 on April 30th he predicts it to fall to $120, and if it goes below $120 he predicts it to fall even more, seeing 'loss staunching and periodic capitulation'.

The next day the prices started collapsing and bottomed at $79 already 3 days later on May 3th. Today, 3.5 months later, that price of $140 was not touched again.

If you make trades based on what other people think thats fine but you can't then blame them for it. Very few people could predict when that parabolic price rise would crash. Nobody would predict every move unless they happen to be god. Price crash happened at $266 but I would have not been surprised at all if it had instead kept going and hit $500 a week later.

When price hit $70 less than 2 months ago I wrongly predicted it would continue down to the bottom of the long term channel. Thats the breaks, technical analysis predicted it would, but that doesn't account for Ben Bernanke deciding to start blabbering about tapering the QE.

Long term predictions are much easier. In the long term, whether you bought at $266 or $50 both will be considered very cheap one day. Bitcoins can and most likely will rise a lot more. This is a consequence of keynsian economics, and an unbacked fiat monetary system.

Bad call by cypherdoc. On June 11th 2011 when price had just peaked out at $31.5, 2 days before, and was averaging at $17.6 that day, he advises not to sell but to buy hold (edit: I stand corrected) and predicts it will go back up.

The price continued to fall for 5 months in a row to a low of $2 by November 18th 2011.

To my knowledge be remained bullish the whole way down.

Loozik made some really incredible predictions in the last month in the Wall Observer Thread.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=101803;sa=showPosts

I found these 3 guys on a btc chart gambling site too, with more than 70% win rate.
http://btcoracle.com/leaderboard.php

Good point. I agree. It's your own decision that you followed their opinion, so if you want to blame someone, start with yourself.

Equally if you follow one's opinion and it works out, and you want to praise someone, start with praising yourself since you made that decision to follow them.

Blaming others or yourself is not healthy though. It's called self attack and leads to more of the same since you don't come to an understanding of why you did something, but instead try to ban it. It won't work and you will repeat since the cause of your mistake was not addressed. Praising someone or yourself is the other end of the spectrum and also not healthy since you don't come to an understanding why you or the other person did it right.

I do think it is ok to thank for opinion that proved valuable, and to point out opinion that proved wrong.

And ofcourse, if you do follow people's opinion, as I also do, it is wise to study their track record and see their success rate.

Studying track records is a lot of work though, this thread shares my work on this, and I hope people share their knowledge on people's track record here also.

I am world's probably worst trader, and there is no way I could ever dream of aspiring to your list. But if there is some sort of reward / prize in this competition, then I would like you to consider me.

I made a call telling the price will go from 66 to 123

trading call: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?PHPSESSID=ajb3vm56v6ao5s38q6jgc7cm22&topic=178336.msg2673061#msg2673061
trading call confirmation: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg2965168#msg2965168

Then for those who missed the 66 bottom I made two calls to catch up the move.

trading call: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?PHPSESSID=mcr4tdi9nppt5a7p5fditsn9k4&topic=178336.msg2676745#msg2676745
trading call confirmation: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?PHPSESSID=mcr4tdi9nppt5a7p5fditsn9k4&topic=178336.msg2677325#msg2677325

trading call: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?PHPSESSID=mcr4tdi9nppt5a7p5fditsn9k4&topic=178336.msg2729995#msg2729995
trading call confirmation: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?PHPSESSID=mcr4tdi9nppt5a7p5fditsn9k4&topic=178336.msg2734572#msg2734572

After being criticized, I promised not to make any more BTCUSD calls, but if you encourage me I might consider giving non-BTCUSD calls

Would the above count for 1 or for 3 calls?

What price would you have sold ?  at $120, $140, $160...?    Now it's easy to talk about but then...

I'm beginning to think that your requirements are for a freakin' oracle.  Markets are fractal.  Nobody could predict that Apr 10 was going to be THE dump; in a mirror universe we could have topped at 150 or 500.  But it doesn't matter that that could not be predicted because anyone playing the "dip" made a lot on the dump -- or lost a lot less then they would have if they weren't playing the dip.  Sure they might have made MORE if the prediction had been "this is the dump".  But it remains good advice.  In other words, some people were noticing that we were in the stratosphere and advocating shaking loose some fiat for btc repurchase at a lower price and others -- rpietelia for the most extreme example --- were still pumping for a much higher price.  Which group do you think is the one making honest predictions and which is the one attempting to influence the market?

Stock prediction is complex and I think you are falling into the trap of simplifying it down to uselessness.  I know someone who back in '99 (during the internet investing bubble) entered a stock prediction challenge (it was promoting a stock opinion website) and actually won 10k.  Just to give you an idea of how he did it ... first step, pick a stock with incredibly low volatility.

But in the real world, its better to be partly right most of the time rather then being exactly right once.


Also, FYI price hit near $50 around 48 hours after the drop... the price was flying all over the place due to DDOS.  It then hit it again 6 days later on the 16th, which is the bottom that I think you keep referring to. http://www.bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180zig15-minzczsg2013-04-09zeg2013-04-16ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv (http://www.bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180zig15-minzczsg2013-04-09zeg2013-04-16ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv).

These 2, plus the recent $65 price form the "triple bottom" that has provided the confidence needed for the current run up.

how do blitz, EM and the gang stack up? :D ;)

Hi Loozik :)

There is no reward or price. I hope though that this thread helps people to evaluate better who's opinions to follow and who's opinions to be careful about.

Having a proven good track record has high reputation value and can be leveraged in different ways: newsletter, fund, etc.

:) Post their calls here and we will get a better picture. ;)

I'm especially interested in 'the gang' since I suspect their opinions/reputation are overvalued since it's mostly based on quantity and funz instead of quality. But finding their calls and refering to subsequent price is some work. Your help would be valued by me. I would say target those that you find overvalued or undervalued.

Great call indeed. I think it's one call since you called from $66 to $120, and that's what happened. You did confirm the call twice, at $72 and $96, but it wasn't a new call since it repeated the same message, that price would continue to go up and your $120 was not yet reached.

Fair? What do you think?

I'm sorry to hear you stopped making calls. :( Was the criticism valid?

For those of us that consider the real price to be Bitstamp / BTC-E and not Gox, Blitz hasn't really been far off the mark.

Great call from Loozik. When price was $66 on July 7th he predicted it would go up. He did not mention $120 but did draw the line to $120 on his chart (first chart below). On the same day when the price had gone up from $66 to $72 he confirmed it was still a good trade to make and predicted it would continue to go up (second chart). A week later on July 14th when the price had moved up already strongly to $96 he confirmed his call that the price would continue to go up (third chart).

Indeed price bottomed right at $66 that day when he called it. When he confirmed at $72 the same day, it indeed continued to go up. When it hit $96 on July 14th he confirmed again that it would continue to go up, and indeed it hit $120 a month later on August 18th.

Some-but-Not-all-traders are readers of this forum.  It appears that RS is looking to give some advantage to those-that-are-readers over those-that-are-not.
Whatever you may think of the methods and motives for this, the result is a condensation of information which may benefit those-who-are-readers.

What I or others did has no relevance to his call being good or bad.

I agree it was not easy then, and Rampion his call shows little regard for that and on top turned out completely wrong.  

For your info, I advised others to sell some, and keep some (and did the same myself) but was mostly screamed over by messages such as Rampion's one above.  >:(

blitz: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg2822165;topicseen#msg2822165

EM - his nonsense is all over this forum (dude likely gets paid by someone to sit on here all day)

the gang - not sure they are on my ignore list and some used to make new topics everyday with their doom and gloom statments

maybe blitz got rid of some of them or they could all be EM's alter egos

bitstamp and btc-e are not the real price either - it's somewhere between mtgox and both. btc-e has such low volume (i think coinbase prob even does more) that they shouldn't even be referenced any longer

No actually it's just you and me.
I am an ELIZA bot and operate 99.9% of Bitcointalks forums accounts.

Also I stalked you home last night.

This is a wrong call indeed, price was at $110 on July 14th/18th, Blitz predicts it goes down, and today it's at $120.

But not worth people's time to list and study, I prefer to quote calls that led to huge losses or profits if followed.  You know, the juicy ones :)

BTC-E still has 6% of the market. I mention it mainly because I trade there and it echoes Bitstamp's prices, not Gox's. Considering that every exchange has a considerable spread with Gox, it is clear that Gox is not the real price and that it is much closer to the other exchanges.

Gox 121
Stamp 104
BTC-E 100
CampBX 103

No question that Gox is quite artificial at the moment.

People, please there are other threads to discuss price difference gox and others. I'd like to keep this thread focused on track record and evaluation of calls only.

"Stay on target ... stay on target ..." :)

well if gox is artificially keeping prices high - other exchanges are artificially keeping the price low.
if gox is 50% of all exchanges - then like i said the ACTUAL price is somewhere in between gox and bitstamp.
using the numbers you've provided i'd say my nonscientific estimate is about $110.88 being the real value

That argument holds no water. There is an external situation keeping prices high at Gox. It doesn't logically follow that prices at other exchanges are artificially low.

It's the value of USD in question. At Bitstamp, $1 = $1, so price should accurately reflect the market. At Gox, this isn't true, and we know that the market values Gox $ significantly less than $ at other exchanges. So the real price should be determined by an aggregate of exchanges, excluding Gox.

Sorry OP, delete posts if needed.

dude, blitz made MANY wrong calls (few right calls too) but, his latest calls have been way off base and since he said we will not see triple digits this year COULD have caused people losses of sorts. you don't want to put him on cause he's a mod here?

I realize he is the mod. I don't think he will remove it. Could you quote some more grave bad calls from him? I'll put them all on the list. It's just that $10 difference seems low, and it's so recent, so he could end up still being right on that one. Wasn't he also screaming sell around $70 1 month ago?

That's a pity. I hoped to get one Satoshi or even two Satoshis as a reward :-[



Fair. Extremely happy to have gotten a plus.



Newsletter? - not with my English. Fund? - already did this. Will stick to etc in the future :D

Hi! I'm no day trader. But here's some self-aggrandizement anyways. I've made a number of longer term predictions on this site that still lie in the future. But I do nominate myself for this prediction:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=250577.msg2823035#msg2823035

wherein I predicted on 7/12/13 the price would be $103 on 7/31. $103 was about the average price between Mt Gox and Bitstamp that day, though it was quite volatile around it.

So that's one of out one predictions that lie in the past :)

monkeybars +1

And because he is well capitalized, he was able to buy all the way down.  Perhaps his "soon" is different from what you assumed "soon" to mean.  He's way up at these prices.

Nice initiative.  And very interesting this thread. Obviously there will be people who will feel very hurt but we have a right to know these analyzes and the degree of successes.

I don't think I am misrepresenting his 'soon'. I have followed cypherdoc his newsletter and soon means the coming weeks, not in 5 months after first correcting -80%.

I hope you are able to judge a call objectively, independent of your feelings for this person?


Let's say like cypherdoc I predict, but that the market will go down soon and say: "sell your coins to all those suckers. we are going down soon." The inverse happens, it goes up by 800% for 5 months in a row. I continue to predict it will go down though, also right on the high. Then it starts to go down but it takes 2 years to go below that price where I made the call, but indeed it goes much lower and my call becomes true.

Proudly I bump the thread continuously where I called it will go down right at the top. Someone points out that was a great call indeed but the call earlier was wrong and I say: "hey I sold even more coins as it went up, and now 2 year later the price is indeed much lower as original". Even if this is right, it was still a poor call as it first went up by 800%.


I agree he is way up at current prices, just like anyone who bought in 2011.

Stick with it was the art though, and he definitely succeeded in that, and helped many others to stick with it, me included.

However, he does not teach any risk management, is silent about his wrong calls while very public about his right calls, gets defensive if you confront him about his wrong calls, and repeats his mistakes to continue to advise to buy even after parabolic epic rises. He did it in 2011, and again in 2013 as I prove in this thread.

Basically he is acting as a goldbug. Always bullish, always advising to buy, even when proven seriously wrong, not recognizing it, not taking responsibility and when confronted denying, minimising and ridiculing (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=74587.msg1845707#msg1845707).  

This is a serious red flag. Very likely, if bitcoin fails, he fails and everyone who follows him. Be aware.

  

There is a big difference between "don't sell" and "buy now".  Or, to use your example, you are suggesting "sell now" when he would have said "don't buy".


I agree he has a potential blind spot, but with most of the potential failure modes of BTC, we will all be caught by surprise.

Thanks a lot for your appreciation. :)

I'm sorry, you are right. He said 'don't sell' on the highs. He did not say 'buy now'.  

I stand corrected. Still a bad call though to advise to 'hold' and the market ends up crashing.

Thanks for your confirmation.

So a speculation track record thread  :D
This will be interesting

lol :)

Imagines the manual tracking through 100's of posts XD
Lol

It would be much easier if forecasters posted pictures of their calls.

Yes, even nicer would be a seperate thread for forecasters, where they can make their public prognostications for grading.  If only that would corral them all into one place and those not corralled could be told to post there or not be considered serious, as most seem not to be anyway (the "goin' to the moon" or "worthless monopoly money" etc).
The vain hope is that it would diminish the hubris of imaginings that the future is visible.

Ha-ha you can watch me velcarations dhenson vycid volcaniceruptor icebreaker etc and put them all into a list just using the securities thread  :D
And MPOE-PR

But lets get this started he-he it will be fun having them find this thread later but I'll try to keep it to recent predictions you guys feel free to quote anyone else might be able to make this thread quite amusing if everyone posts predictions of the day and looks back on them months later :D

I can see evil potential here :)

Vycid right after Friedcat post

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2984500#msg2984500

Agreed, I want a forecasters' thread too. I'm almost ready to post my next prediction there.

This kind of thread should be educational with clear explanation and even maybe charts. Othervise this thread will become lucky guessing thread.

This thread is not meant to make predictions. It is meant to judge and document past predictions, from yourself or others.

I was talking about possible upcoming "forecasting thread" not this one (I was replying to his quote).

Bad call from Blitz. While price had been dropping for 3 weeks in a row coming from $110, and was now at $66 Blitz thinks panic is just starting. He says mtgox withdrawals are fine now and thinks selling will accelerate now that people can withdraw their fiat.

Price bottomed at $65 that same day July 5th and went straight up from there. It closed over $100 already 3 weeks later on July 29th. It continued to go up and by August 19th hit $120 on mtgox, going to premiums of 20% at times over the other exchanges likely due to continued withdrawal problems at mtgox.

I'm not sure what the price was when you made that prediction but the average price for that day July 12th was $96. Predicting the price will go to $103 2/3 weeks later seems too close a price to be of much value.  I agree it was the right call but not worth mentioning in the list in my opinion.

Great call by Odalv. On February 22, 2013, when the exponential rise had been going on already for almost 2 months and price was at $28 he predicts it to go above $200. Indeed it topped 1,5 month later at $266 on April 10th after which it collapsed. A very accurate call made very early helping others to hold.

He also made another call, to soon to be judged, that it will drop back to around $50 by January 2014:
note: he cancelled this call here  (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276773.msg2998812#msg2998812)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=251757.msg2674442#msg2674442 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=251757.msg2674442#msg2674442)

I was wrong about the price going to the '50s in that moment, but how was buying some coins in the '60s to play the bounce (to $110, as you pointed out) a bad call? It made me money.


This is lame. I've made dozens of serious analysis/calls (right & wrong), and you nitpick a trolly post I wrote? Anyhow I stand correct in what I told the guy - if you are in BTC because of fiat profits, then SELL (that was a very good moment to sell for FIAT profits, right?). If you are in BTC because of something deeper (monetary freedom) - then HOLD and fuck the exchange rate.

Anyhow, this is a fun (and useful) initiative - but me, Blitz, Cypherdoc, Odalv, etc. have made dozens (if not hundreds) of calls and here you are cherry-picking a lot, selecting very few, which makes this thread incomplete and biased. I think it would be cool if you'd do an exhaustive recount of all the calls - I guess its almost an impossible job for the past (tens of k's of posts to be read, etc.) but maybe you could start to track all the calls from now on.

I made a pretty good call in November 2012 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=122454.msg1317995#msg1317995), predicting a rocket would ignite within 1 to 3 months. As we all know, it did indeed take off 2 months later.

I'm pretty proud of this call because it was well-argued and of course because it was correct ;). I would feel honored if it was listed.

Great call by molecular. Although no price target is given, he predicts it to go up a lot very soon, gives rational arguments to support his case and advises others to hold. Indeed average price that day November 5th 2012 was $10.73 and has not been seen again. Price went straight up from there for 5 months in a row peaking out at $266 on April 10th 2013.  

Great call indeed, thanks for bringing to my attention, I listed it.

Since you have posted a lot. Did you make bad/horrible calls too?

I'd like the list to be a fair representation of one's track record.

Of course I made some bad calls, too, because I'm generally ultra-bullish. But honestly: I can't find one I put as much weight into as the above one. I will try to find a bad call...

You are now misrepresenting the call made. Your call was not to buy some coins in the 60's. It was to maybe buy some coins in the 60's, but you found it to be risky.

If you are unable to see that this call was overall a bad call, you are incapable of critical self analysis. I strongly suspect this to be the case with you, just like I think this to be the case with cypherdoc too.

This is much worse than making a bad call as critical self analyses is the only way to learn and improve.



In my opinion your response to me analysing your call is 'lame'. You still do not recognize this to be a bad call. You are instead misrepresenting again the call made (no, it was not advise to sell... you made a mockery of someone considering to sell), are making up excuses ("I've made dozens of serious analysis/calls (right & wrong)"), are trying to discredit the messenger with unfounded accusations ("you are cherry picking") and you are trying to make this thread into an impossible task ("maybe you could start to track all the calls from now on").  

I want the track record to be a fair representation of one's performance here in the past. It is my experience that you have been more wrong than right Rampion. Advising to buy and hold when prices were relatively high ($230) and to not buy when prices were relatively low ($70). And this in a trolly and spammy manner thereby adding to the widespread greed and fear that dominated this board and likely mislead many. I agree that my impression is subjective and my representation of your track record also. If you find it to be an unfair overly negative representation please quote calls from you here that have proven to be great/good and helpful for others.

RationalSpeculator: In almost 4,000 posts I've made plenty of good and back calls, serious analysis and just trolling, I'm just pointing out that as a "track record" you chose quite poor and ambiguous examples.

About the guy wondering what to do on April 8th with BTC at $175: I would give the same advice today. If you care about your FIAT profits, sell (especially if the price just went to $175 from $14); if you are into BTC precisely as a hedge against fiat and the current financial system, just HOLD and forget about the exchange rate. Historically the buy&hold strategy has been the absolute winner in BTC, this is a hard cold fact, and obviously the quote you just posted can read very differently in a few years from now. Frankly, I've made much worst calls about specific trades in concrete timeframes. Plus, that same day (April 8th) I posted that Bitcoin was in the middle of a speculative bubble that needed to burst ASAP, and we all know how that plaid out. Being beginning of April a time in which I posted +30 times per day (trolly and spammy as you say), probably you will find good, bad and ambiguous calls made during the same day :D

Finally, you might be right that I'm correct only 33% of the times. I guess the point is to lose the minimum when you get it wrong, and earn the max. when you get it right. I definitely didn't achieve to double my BTC stash during these months of post-crash volatility - as I guess a decent trader would have done - but nevertheless I'm reasonably up, thus my calls are good enough for me. I do not pretend them to be good for anyone else, as I'm no financial advisor.

Or not, some might disagree:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60501.msg2815963#msg2815963

I'm referring to buy&hold vs cashing out profits, or buy&hold vs "risk balancing" strategies which purpose is again to secure fiat profits while reducing the exposure to BTC. Long term, BTC has only gone up exponentially,  thus the best you can do is to buy as much as you can

Plus, does Goomboo consider fees and slippage in his back tests? Because those are two profit killers in this market. In fact, he shows backtests of hourly 10/21 EMA crossings, but he admits that he trades once daily at most, picking up very carefully his trades, because otherwise slippage and fees would eat all his profits. Making a long story short, the theoretical graphs of Goombo are very nice and very instructive, but the reality is quite different.

I think it already bottomed at $50. I do not expect price at the end of year goes bellow $68. But who knows :-) More probably Bitcoin price can skyrocket anytime.

I'm curious to know why you think this? :)

I see more logic in a continued correction since the bubble went up for so long, 3 months hyperbolic, historically corrections took more than double the time of the hyperbolic rise, so that would be a bottom indeed around november/december. Bottom meaning it touches the long term trend line that you drew on your chart also, meaning touching at least $60/$70 around the end of the year.

But I didn't make such a great call before this thing went to the moon so I consider you more of an expert in takeoff detections  ;D

1. big volume in april (5M BTC) at average price $130
2. long term trend line rises 550% per year.

so why sell at a lose ($60) in 2014 when you can sell with profit in 2015 (long term trend line over $300) ?

Great call from cypherdoc. Not that he advised others to buy but he was openly declaring his bullishness on bitcoin when average price was $0.67 on that 5th of April 2011. Price was coming from a high of over $1.08 on February 12th 2011 and had been correcting for 2 months by -40%. That day marked the low as it started to go straight up the next day peaking out 2 months later on June 9th 2011 at $31.5. 


 

Bad call by BrightAnarchist. When price averaged $0.76 on March 19th 2011 and had just fallen from a high of $1.06 one month earlier he predicts, although with modesty, bitcoin to fall more and informs others he waits to make his large btc investment.

The price bottomed out 2 weeks later at an average price of $0.67 on April 5th 2011 after which it started shooting up parabolically peaking out already 2.5 months later at an average price of $29.58 on June 9th 2011. Since then it never fell back to $0.76 again but bottomed out 3 times higher at an average price of $2.14 by the end of the year, on November 18th 2011.  

 

OP, I think you are missing the most epic and representative call by our beloved rpietila, who was absolutely sure that we would reach 300k USD per BTC by the end of the year:

+1 for me  :D

Confirmed

Good call by BrightAnarchist. After going through a long bear market for 6 months coming from a high of $32 in June 2011 and only a good month earlier in November 2011 finding a bottom around $2 but since then doubling again to $5 he predicts the long term trend to be up and advises others to dollar cost average.

Price averaged $5.21 that day January 2, 2012 and indeed went up in the long term to $13 by the end of the year 2012 and to $130 as of today, 1.5 years later.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=131065.msg1764508#msg1764508



Good call from both lucif/Masterluc and BrightAnarchist. Price averaged $154 on that day April 7th, 2013 and both are bearish predicting it to collapse soon. BrightAnarchist thinks $207 could be it.

It topped 3 days later on April 10th at $266 and crashed to $105 instantly, only to end the day at $165. It continued to go down the days after and bottomed around $50 only a week later.


----

lucif/Masterluc reveals he is 100% out, right at the top of $250:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=131065.msg1791777#msg1791777

---
BrightAnarchist revealed after prices peaked at $266 and dropped instantly to around $110 that he sold some at $100 and $143:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=165976.msg1797068#msg1797068

again, i'm going to +1 myself for a good call  :)

subscribe to BitMovements (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=279263.0)! its the only way to get to read my inner most thoughts on the future price of bitcoin, and its practically free!

Very good adam!

I'll make a call. By end of first week of October we will have hit $155.

End of first week of November price will be $180.

End of first week of December price will have broken $225.

Let's see how I do.  ;D

On March 19, 2013, 03:59:14 PM I made two predictions:

• that the price would stay above $50
  
• That the price would stay below $100 for about 40 days.
  

The banks did not collapse in Europe, but the price at Mt. Gox went above $100 on or about April 13, 2013: over two weeks ahead of my prediction.

On July 4th, I call the bottom at $60. The dip bottoms out at just below 70 2 days later.

That gives me a track record of 2 correct, 1 wrong prediction. I don't usually explain my methodology, so I am not sure it is possible to separate my predictions from simple guessing. ;)

this thread is turning into a circle jerk.

i made a post somewhere a few weeks back, that bears would be rocking back and forth in a corner, saying " this is not the true price, it all because of mtGox,this is not the true price" over and over

so i guess thats another +1 for me  :D

I remember that post. It paints a perfect picture.  :D

Wanted to give a +1 where its deserved.


Today, 8/30, is "probably sooner" than sunday

I found the Bitcoin Astrology thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=75955.0) interesting, so I decided to trawl it for predictions. Especially in light of this comment:


The Chart from that week (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg730zczsg2012-04-02zeg2012-04-23ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl) shows a slow steady rise from just under $4.9/BTC to just under $5.0/BTC. (Saturday and Sunday were April 14 and 15, respectively) Miss, though to be fair, Otoh said it was not a full prediction.

These don't make direct predictions. On May 30 (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg730zczsg2012-05-25zeg2012-06-13ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl), the price was down slightly. During the following week, the price climbed from $5.15/BTC to $5.45/BTC. I will call this prediction a draw. The June 1 daily horoscope does not really predict anything either; BTC rose 10 cents that day.


It is not clear if this is a prediction or 20/20 hindsight. Otoh seems to start their week on a Friday. The Chart from June 8 to 14 (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg730zczsg2012-06-2zeg2012-06-19ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl) shows a rise from $5.63/BTC to $5.95/BTC (approximate). I am going to call this one a good prediction.

Summary: -1 +0 +1

OP: This is a fascinating thread. Thanks for starting it. I know I will be paying special attention to several members spotlighted within, and it was very good to have them comment on various calls. Please keep it going!

i don't think this thread is fascinating.  i think it represents cherry picking from RS.

RS has continued to call me a permabull since my participation here on the Forum and has criticized my buy and hold strategy.  i don't  agree with that characterization b/c it implies that i would have been just as likely to buy @ 260 as i was @ 1.60 when i first started buying.  evidence to the contrary of this is that my average cost in is 6.50.  otoh, it's not an entirely unfair characterization either.

here's an example of another way to look at my own trading history/recommendations. let's assume for a moment that i have been a permabull.  i publish my newsletter updates at least once a day.  that would mean i would be recommending buying everyday on both on up days and down days.  if we use the "# of days right versus # days wrong" to assign me a +1 vs -1, the impression that RS is trying to give would be entirely different.  since there have only been 7 days in Bitcoin price history that the price has been higher than today, i would have been "wrong" that many days.  therefore -7 in that category.  but how many days would i have been "right"?  if we go back to my first buy of April 23, 2011, i would have been "right" 862-7=855 days.

thus cypherdoc, +1=855, -1=7

Good one. Soon you will have been right all days, +1=855+@daysofsoon(), -1=0

Indeed, you were just as likely to buy at $260 as any other price. That is exactly my criticism. Your advise was to hold at $260. But advising to hold is very similar as advising to buy. The only difference between someone holding and someone buying is the transaction cost. If you decide to hold you are in fact deciding to buy, but at a little cheaper cost since you avoid transaction cost compared to someone who actually buys. And since price has gone up, and your exposure also, by advising to hold, you are advising to buy more.

Great investors solve this 'frog cooking problem' by asking themselves, 'if I were to liquidate all my investments, the price being what it is today, would I take the same exposure as I have today?'

You say that your average buy in price was only $6 and this is evidence that you were 'not likely to buy at $260' and are not a permabull. Following this logic no one that entered in 2011 can be a permabull as they all have a much lower buy in price. This holds no water. The correct question is, did you succeed to buy on lows when you entered in 2011 or did you also bought on highs? Your track record shows that in 2011 you advised to buy near the top ($18) (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276773.msg2971022#msg2971022), as well as near the bottoms ($0.67 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276773.msg3006073#msg3006073) & $2 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276773.msg2970614#msg2970614)), and your average price ($6) suggests also you did exactly that. So if you would have entered in 2013 instead of 2011 you would indeed have actually bought at $180 also, as you literally advised others to do (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276773.msg2970656#msg2970656).

What's your proof that I am cherry picking when analysing your track record?



So if price goes to new highs all your past short term calls that proved to be wrong, become correct/good?  

I strongly disagree.

I understand your long term view is that bitcoin still represents a great investment, and this was your view also at past highs, but I am not challenging those calls. I am challenging your short term calls that the price will continue to go up but ends up collapsing for many months.

Your defense that you can't know how high it will go (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=74587.msg1846348#msg1846348) hence you always advised to hold is a poor defense since chances for the price to collapse are going up as the price goes up parabolically. There comes a time when the risk of loss becomes higher than the potential reward. This exact price point is up for discussion but when the price has been going up parabolically for 3 months, just 20 folded, and all other indicators are flashing red that we are in a bubble of epic proportions, it is a statistical certainty that this price point has been breached.

Sure, it can always go up even more but the risk/reward has become outright bad. That is a fact cypherdoc. Advising to hold/buy in such situation is a very poor call. No matter what the price does afterwards. Calling your newsletter 'Financial Risk Analytics (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=74587.0)' is something you failed to do when it was most important.

Before the bubble popped in 2013 I asked you privately what you learned from your mistake in 2011 and you ignored my question. You still not having admitted that you made bad calls at the highs in 2011 and 2013 indicates you are incapable of critical self evaluation which will only lead you to make the same mistake again.

Also when I first gave this criticism publicly on your thread you responded by revealing personal communication (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=74587.msg1846521#msg1846521) of me when I consulted you for a private matter and payed you. This angers me and damaged my trust in you.

Thank you so much flagel :)

the last "buy" i made was just over $10 as we were coming out of the bottom in Oct 2012.  and "holding" or "stick with it" all the way up to 260 is not the same as advising to "buy".  and the fact is i did not buy @ 260.


how does this even make sense?  your implications, extrapolations and assumptions are so off base.  and they don't even take into account any accelerated buying into the lows.  yes, i was buying on the way down from 32 but at an accelerating rate the deeper the drop went down to 2.

simple.  one of the -1's you assigned me was the "BTFD" comment.  you ignore all the "buy", "stick with it" or "hold" recommendations all the way up from 30 to 260 when we first had talked.  why don't i get +1's for those?  i gave you a very valid tongue in cheek argument that a daily right/wrong count of 855 to 7 could be applied to me since you believe me to be a permabull.  i say tongue in cheek b/c i actually think it's a stupid argument that applies very well to a stupid thread.

i think your continual criticism against the many of us around here who are long term investors who believe in a buy and hold strategy is irrational, not rational.  we don't care about how you feel about a 4 mo drop or consolidation b/c we have done our homework and understand what we're dealing with.  you happen to be a day trader.  i am not.  i used those drops as buying opportunities.  i used the last drop from 32 to 2 to buy more BTC than you'll ever have.  this drop i've used to buy more asic mining equipment and get involved in the Bitcoin business community.

this is exactly my point.  you continue to criticize the long term buy and hold strategists like sunnankar, vladimir and i.  i didn't answer you b/c you view my accelerated buying down into the $2 bottom as a mistake.  i view it as a huge win.  you fail to acknowledge others viewpoints of the exact same situation (32 to 2) and (260 to 50) so why should i waste my time answering you?  


the only part of that communication that i revealed was what i said, nothing you said.  plus, it was a response to your attack of me in my sub thread and involved an email that was over a month and a half old.  besides, there was nothing in there i haven't already said in my gold threads.

let me ask you something.  at the time of that email the price was around 30 and i warned you clearly we were going to have a massive breakout.  which we did.  the price now stands @ 146.  my returns since that time using buy and hold are 146/30 or 487% (i know thezerg and dree will go off on this way of calc but this is for arguments sake).  what have your returns been with your day trading strategy?  

be honest.

a) Buy and hold is very good strategy ( safe 550%/year ROI ).
b) Daytrading is gambling .. maybe you will make 5500% and maybe you will end up at 0% ... it is zero sum game so 1 will win and 10 will have to pay losses

i went back and looked at no less than 7 private email communications btwn the 2 of us back near 3/4/13 where i urged you to buy hard, just before the huge breakout.  in fact i said "sell all your silver" and "sell half your gold" to buy BTC.

and yet you continue to ride me about that one question you think i failed to answer back to you.  

let me say it again.  it was a senseless and meaningless question that i tossed aside b/c it started from the flawed assumption that buying the dip from 32 to 2 was a MISTAKE.

i also looked at the price of gold which was 1584 back on 3/4/13. tonite we are @ 1382 in the futures.  you didn't listen to me about selling gold and silver either.

From the wall observer thread

yes Cypher hit the nail on the head with the prob with this thread which is why I stopped bothering.

if I recommended buy at 80, 70, 60, 50.5 during one of the crashes technically I'd be +1, -3 since price kept falling till the last.  but in practice I'd be way ahead. RS is looking for an oracle

cypher btw your math is fine... its when you compare % that things aren't straightforward

Have been tangentially following this thread for a while now, because I think the declared goal is interesting at least: to create a history of predictions (and track record of posters).

But in the end,  I have to agree  with cypherdog and thezerg, the methodology of RS is very much lacking and nothing useful is being created here unfortunately. It's cherry picking quotes, without any attempt to put them into a context (of price at the time, contrasting them with general forum sentiment at the time, etc.)

There's something else though, I noticed in here: among early investors (compared to those who only came shortly before or after the 2013 peak/bubble) it seems to be common to bash daytrading, and recommend b&h instead. That's a bit of a naive position that ignores that those who only came a few months ago, needed to make a decision that is far from obvious, even if they are in principle inclined to hold long-term: buy in now, or later.

The performance of b&h of the "old guard" is undeniably fantastic. But keep in mind that of the huge number of new investors that came around/after April, many are still in the negative if they would have employed "unconditional" b&h  and simply bought at the earliest possibility (although many of them are about to break even, I suppose). Contrast this with some mild form of TA guided trading, say, something crude like "buy if price crosses daily EMA20 from below, sell if it crosses from above". A ridiculously simple strategy, and it would have given the new arrivals a number of useful trading signals: assuming you held btc before the peak, it would have advised selling well before the bottom April bottom, assuming you arrived with fiat buying in at around 110 (which would be profitable by now). It also would have correctly, and with a nice profit, identified the long June downtrend.

Note that I'm not suggesting every newcomer should base his trading decision on this indicator. Just that the high praise for b&h can sound a bit shallow if it comes from investors that have been around for a long time already, well before the parabolic rise earlier this year.

It is rarely good practice to expose one's clients in this way.  
When buying advice, I do not expect those with whom I consult to advertise that fact without permission.

yeah, that probably wasn't the best choice on my part.

Yes, it would be good to have a clearing house for "intentional predictions" where they can be tracked.  There is lots of informal supposition that can be construed as prediction.

The oracles that want accountability should have a place to get that, with a clear methodology.

I dont't think there's a way to make it work. This place is way too informal to really "track predictions", half of the time half of us are trolling anyway. And in a way, I like it like that.

It would be interesting however to to have a thread in which every active member makes a, say, 1 or 2 month prediction (price range, overall development, etc.), and the ones that did best will get magical Internet points. Everyone likes those.

you mean, like this thing called bitcoin? :)

Right.  I was thinking something like that but with less structure and more real-time.  So that when someone spots a pattern that means something to them, or has a dream, or reads the tea leaves or has inside information....and they make a prediction that they really believe in, they can put a link to it in a common thread where they can get subjected to abuse/praise.

I'm not sure cypherdoc. I agree that your calls, even the bad ones included, overall made a lot of money. So I can see why your track record should be overall positive instead of neutral as it currently is.

But I think it's most helpful if the track record compares the performance of traders/investors here with a simple buy and hold. Because what's the point of making calls if not for outperforming a buy and hold?

You indeed did not outperform a buy and hold, so it's neutral.

But maybe I should neutralize those that have a positive track record currently as I'm pretty sure most of them did not outperform a buy and hold, and many of them likely did not even achieve a buy and hold performance, unlike you.

I'm not sure what to do frankly. What do you think?

i appreciate that you are trying to be helpful here.

all i'm trying to do is get you to acknowledge that a long term buy and hold strategy is just as valid and accepted an investment strategy as day trading.

we just have different viewpoints.

personally, i would just let the thread die b/c the +1/-1 system you're using introduces human error/bias no matter how fair you think you're being.

I have always been honest.

I'm not sure how to calculate my returns on bitcoin since $30. I do know my exact returns on bitcoin since the start of the year when price was $13 and that is currently 1070%, using the current bitstamp price of $125. In contrast a buy and hold would have earned $125-$13 = $112 profit / $13 = 861%. So I succeeded in outperforming a buy and hold, but I admit, this can change very quickly. The price just needs to go up to about $160 and I am outperformed by a buy and hold because currently I only have half the amount of bitcoins that I started the year with. I also think I had some luck with trading.

(This is just my returns on my bitcoin investment, if I had followed your advice to convert my silver into btc then my bitcoin returns would not have been higher but my total returns of my portfolio, currently +50% for the year, would have been a lot higher. My biggest mistake was to invest only 8% of my portfolio in bitcoin at the start of the year. I am not satisfied with this +50% since I was right to have a tenbagger and wanted to at least double my capital with it. If I could turn back time I would follow your advise and sell the silver. I'm not willing to make another big mistake and am considering buying back all the coins I sold and switch to a buy and hold like you. My exposure would then suddenly increase from the current 20% to 40% of my portfolio. )

I would ignore captial fiat conversions and just measure it as total bitcoins increasing or decreasing on a monthly basis.
Example price went up from 80 to 120 and if you lost 10 btc but made a Fiat gain it is still a loss over holding the bitcoins.

Great call by Vycid!

On July 3th 2013 when ASICMINER was valued at 4.52 btc per share (when 1 btc was $83, so $375 per share) Vycid predicts a collapse, liquidates all his shares and continues to buy put options (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=228488.0). (AM had just seventeen folded in value, coming from only 0.65 btc per share (when 1 btc was $35, so $22 per share) when it first started trading on bitfunder just 4 months earlier on March 4th 2013.

AM reached it's peak valuation only 2 days before his call on July 2nd 2013 at 4.93 btc and started falling month after month to only 0.61 btc per share ( with 1 btc = $152, so $92 per share) as of today October 18th 2013, losing 75% of it's value in only 3 months.

He continued to vocal his contrarian opinion, even though he was scolded quite intensively for it, and helped several investors get out in time.


He made another call recently, too soon to be judged:

We could also be betting on the performance of the oracles.

Now there's an idea worth money.

Would be interesting to have a website where people start with an equal amount of fake USD, then they can do pretend trades based on the exchange prices, just like a stock market competition, only continuous.  And of course there would be stats (all-time scores, best performance this year, ...).

I would appreciate being removed from the first post since I am unconvinced at the methodology or accuracy of these assessments.  Thx!

I'm not willing to do that.

That would destroy my work and people would not get my opinion on your track record anymore.

I'm sorry.

Great call by rpietila.

In October 2012, when many were ordering lots of ASIC mining equipment, he predicts ASIC mining to become a low profitability investment, physically unable to make back the amount of bitcoins it costed.

Today one year later ASIC miners have made back - on average - barely 20% of the bitcoins they originally invested, losing 80% of their bitcoins*.


(*This is a rough estimation, the first to market, for example ASICMINER, made back 6 times more bitcoins as originally invested, most however made back not even 10% of their bitcoins.)

ASICMiner has paid out 6x their IPO in dividends.  Their customers, OTOH, have not done as well unless they were in the first wave of blade sales.

Thanks for clearing that up. :) Included the number.