Analysis

[masterluc]

People share opinions here. Nobody is perfect.

[1714011661]

1714011661

[1714011661]

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[1714011661]

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[BrightAnarchist]

Two months ago on on June 27th when the market droppped  BrightAnarchist said:

Absolutely. I'm short everything right now

Then stock market rallies from 1573 to 1700 in two months.  Bitcoin rallies from 70 to 140 USD.  So, general rule is be careful when seeking advice.

But, I suspect BrightAnarchist will make the right call eventually, since if you call a bear market repeatedly then there may be a higher probability you will eventually be correct.  Once a bear market does happen BrightAnarchist will essentially say "I told you so" and everyone will think he is a genius, but in reality he is a human and has made wrong calls in the past.  Sorry for being blunt, BrightAnarchist.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=131065.msg2590652#msg2590652

I can be early and still be right about the deflationary hypothesis. It will be very profitable, but I have not yet gotten the signals I need to take particularly aggressive action. Again, I'm hoping that the October time-frame will provide this.

If you think getting every call right at both a long-term and intermediate-term time-frame is an appropriate standard to be held to, then good luck finding that holy grail.

[thefiniteidea]

I was absolutely wrong about Bitcoin bouncing off a $120 ceiling and heading back down; following a 2011 pattern.

And based off of recent price movements, I don't even know if we'll ever see $50 again at this point... its looking more like the august 2012 "bubble"

I'm waiting and re-assessing my projections for Bitcoin and the equities markets. We may see a divergence in BTC price and overall USD markets this time.

And with all of these analysts/talking heads (CNBC, these bearish threads, and even my favorite analyst Marc Faber agrees) proactively declaring a negative outlook for this upcoming last quarter, like its inevitable (due to typically bearish months, bernanke leaving, stimulus ending), I actually think we may not see these droids that we are all looking for and expecting... and perhaps the market will drift sideways until the new fed chairman... at which point, whoever that is, will continue stimulus and pump the markets up so that this impending crash isn't blamed on them...

I dunno. Lucif's line pretty much sums it up:

"People share opinions here. Nobody is perfect."

[RationalSpeculator]

Two months ago on on June 27th when the market droppped  BrightAnarchist said:

Absolutely. I'm short everything right now

Then stock market rallies from 1573 to 1700 in two months.  Bitcoin rallies from 70 to 140 USD.  So, general rule is be careful when seeking advice.

But, I suspect BrightAnarchist will make the right call eventually, since if you call a bear market repeatedly then there may be a higher probability you will eventually be correct.  Once a bear market does happen BrightAnarchist will essentially say "I told you so" and everyone will think he is a genius, but in reality he is a human and has made wrong calls in the past.  Sorry for being blunt, BrightAnarchist.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=131065.msg2590652#msg2590652

Thanks for sharing your critical observation. That was valuable for me.

Indeed nobody is perfect, thanks for showing.

[masterluc]

Oops....

[notme]

116, 108, 96, or lower?

[samurai1200]

Ah those daily candles make it very clear: we'd been riding the upper bound of the BB for essentially all of August. Time for a dump.

[masterluc]

[Odalv]

$91 ? :-)

[RationalSpeculator]

I love this ping pong thread

My guess is it will take some time before we get that final ping bottom, I think around middle November, I estimate somewhere in the order of $60.

By end of December I think we are back over $100. 

In any case, I don't sell anymore coins just in case it goes up from here, hope to buy more if it goes down but will stop buying if it would drop below $30. Maximum exposure to btc of my portfolio: 40%. Current exposure: 18%.

Happy trading brothers and sisters (any ladies here btw?)

[Miz4r]

Does anyone else think the Pings and Pongs should be reversed? In my mind a Ping is a high and Pong should be a low. Just a minor OCD thing lol. Anyway my guess is $98 will be the next low around Sept 25th. German elections will be over by then and it's time for the Euro crisis to come back in full force.

[byronbb]

Does anyone else think the Pings and Pongs should be reversed? In my mind a Ping is a high and Pong should be a low. Just a minor OCD thing lol. Anyway my guess is $98 will be the next low around Sept 25th. German elections will be over by then and it's time for the Euro crisis to come back in full force.

Ya but the sequence started at a low, you don't go "Pong-Ping" ldo.

[notme]

Does anyone else think the Pings and Pongs should be reversed? In my mind a Ping is a high and Pong should be a low. Just a minor OCD thing lol. Anyway my guess is $98 will be the next low around Sept 25th. German elections will be over by then and it's time for the Euro crisis to come back in full force.

Ya but the sequence started at a low, you don't go "Pong-Ping" ldo.

Just think of a Ping as an upwards force and Pong as a downwards force.  A price in motion will stay in motion until acted upon by an outside force.

[masterluc]

http://www.sierrachart.com/SupportBoard.php?ThreadID=3045

Currently there is a problem with the MTGox Bitcoin data feed. It should be back up by this evening.

We are having to recode the interface. For some reason the web socket interface they provide keeps giving us an error. After reviewing the documentation they provide for that interface, it is unclear and a mess.

[rampantparanoia]

http://www.sierrachart.com/SupportBoard.php?ThreadID=3045

Currently there is a problem with the MTGox Bitcoin data feed. It should be back up by this evening.

We are having to recode the interface. For some reason the web socket interface they provide keeps giving us an error. After reviewing the documentation they provide for that interface, it is unclear and a mess.

lol, they should switch to the json feed. Updates are a little slower, but more reliable.
here I thought I was the only one who had trouble understanding their documentation.

[Leo]

[samurai1200]

So a PONG to $115 within a couple of weeks would establish that trend. Seems unlikely considering how strong that middle upward band has been. I'm really trying to be bearish but nearly every day I'm being proven wrong. Liquidity (or lack thereof) is making this a whale's game.

[lebing]

Some seems to be interested in making the upward option happen.

[notme]

Some seems to be interested in making the upward option happen.

Or letting the bids fill in around him so he can pull it and dump... His real bids will be scattered below where he sells it to.

[lebing]

Some seems to be interested in making the upward option happen.

Or letting the bids fill in around him so he can pull it and dump... His real bids will be scattered below where he sells it to.

Maybe, but a bit too risky for most whales taste I suspect. There is virtually no spread between his bid and the current bid, far too easy for one to dump right into it should one be so inclined.