Bitcoin Forum

I started this thread because most price discussions seem to focus on a mid to long term trend, and I'm interested in the next couple of days. At the moment, Bitcoin is in an interesting price position, and I need to decide when I should withdraw some dollar valued funds into Bitcoin. I've read a lot of chartist comments, and some state that the price is in a "W", and may drop to $6.000 or so before rising again. Others seem to say that a breakout above $8,500 will start a bull run. I'm a long term HODLer, and I believe that the end of year price will be substantially higher, but before that I need to "buy the dip".

So what do you guys think about the next couple of days. Will a second leg of a "W" appear, and present a great buying window, or have we breached the resistance, and the price will hit $10,000 before next Monday?

http://bigsig.com/s/jet-sig.png

I think the price will not shoot up.  And somebody is manipulating it to make it look as if it is and then people will buy and hold.  Then the whales will swoop down and crash the price again.  So they can get the cheap coins.  That's what I think.  So I think 12-36 hours time is the time to buy cheap.  but it's just a guess.

I think it’s a short term period of consolidation in & around the $8,000 range. Traders are taking a breath before the next leg up. I expect $11,000 by the end of February.

So you think it is a "W". I tend to agree with you, but I wonder if it is just wishful thinking. :)


But what about the end of the week-end?

http://bigsig.com/s/jet-sig.png

Even if the market does increase further beyond the current resistance levels, it won't be sustainable for long without anything hinting at a positive development the market can use as a trigger to continue to keep people buying. Most logical scenario for now is that we'll keep bouncing between $8000-$9000 for a few more days, until we manage to comforably move outside the repetitive pattern, which goes up for both the lower and the higher point. 50% chance to touch $9000, and 50% chance to touch $8000. Less than 25% chance to touch $10,000, and less than 25% chance to touch $7000. Short term speaking, it's just pure accumulation time at sub $10,000 levels.

Lots of new investors need to be sucked in with the promise of wealth like last time.  So if somebody was a financial expert and studied why so many people came in at 15,16,17,18,19k then they would have their answer.  New people need to come in with new money or the price won't be boosted to any great extent.  So somebody needs to persuade people that Bitcoin is going to the moon.  If they can do that then it might.  If they can't then it won't.

I am not much of a "chartist" but I can say that a big drop at this point where the recovery has happened and the confidence in the market is back up again, is not as simple. so without another wave of bad news after bad news (FUD mania) I won't expect dropping to $6000

and so far with the price creeping up towards $9000 we may see a rising W meaning drop after not being able to breakout and higher lows each time it goes back down, before the breakout happens.

You don't need new investors, you just need people to buy and hold Bitcoin. I suspect the pump and dump is to help long term major investors acquire coins at "low" prices.

For me, the price will not reach 10,000 USD this week because the way the price of bitcoin is playing around 8,000 and 7,000 USD most of the people here are expecting a small amount of reached or maybe if we're lucky and the demand is still consistent. we will be able 9,000 USD.

If you need to withdraw then go ahead. It is not clear yet but I thinkg that for the next few day in the best case we will stick around 10k price with a +-5-10% daily changes. Trying to catch a moment and sell btc 5% higher seems quiet pointless during the last time. This price will probably remains till the end of the upcoming week bucause if for example some updates on tether investigation will come out it will definetely have a negative effect while the uptrend is still too short to predict longer movements.

Most of this pump and dump is done on the altcoins which have very minimal price and can be bought/sold at larger qty easily by the group of people. Thus for btc the prices is nearing 9k already and soon the next would be reaching the 5 figure mark and should happen soon within next week.

I'm not selling. I have a dollar account with a domain name registrar, and I am allowed to withdraw the proceeds from sales in Bitcoin. I can decide when to request a withdrawal. If the price halves, then I get twice as much Bitcoin, if it doubles, then I only get half. :)

http://bigsig.com/s/jet-sig.png

I see the typical V shaped spike low bottom on this one. But why is it different than any other of the lows with the downwards channel?  Volume...

If you look at the 4hr chart, the last spike low has the highest sell/buy volume out of any of the downturns since the high produced since Dec 17. (Does that mean it was the bottom in 2018? No, but it is a significant confirmation IMO)

Based on the GDAX exchange, from the peak on Dec 17 (19981) to the spike low (5873) a few days ago was a -70.6% drop in price. Quite a large drop in price and was larger than the 2013 Dec/Jan selloff, that one IIRC was in the mid 60's percentage wise.

Running a fibonacci on the bitstamp exchange from the same period of the low in July 17 to the Dec 17 peak, the re-tracement spiked down to the .236 level. Technically, that is one of the fibonacci levels that would be seen as support.

What I am looking for is the price to meet and exceed the 9499 level on GDAX as that was a previous high (4hr chart)  IF that occurs, it will be producing higher highs which is one of the essential aspects of a higher trend. (Higher highs and higher lows) IMHO, the low for 2018 was produced a few days ago.

I have been running technical analysis on the Gold/Silver markets for more than 10 years, so that is my background. I mostly hodL in the crypto market, and do some trading. I am not a pro trader.

Well it looks as if it can't get its boots off £6,000, so I think I'll hold off until tomorrow. Hopefuuly the price will drop again, and give me a chance to grab some coins.

I don't think we're going to revisit 6k or even 7k. From 7k to almost 9k last night it's not been an easy increase and the price has still had a lot of daily volatility. Ultimately it's broken through resistance levels at second or third attempts. The most recent one being 9k. I expect the price will be up towards 9k again later today and breaking through it at some point tomorrow, then on towards 10k we go. If we see any major dip I think it will be from 10k downwards as it will be a bigger barrier to break due to the psychological nature.

Sorry I've been posting in Sterling - it's all this Brexit stuff. :)

Just as a very approximate equivalence - £6,100 is about $8,500 ( give or take $100 )..

http://bigsig.com/s/jet-sig.png

I believe it's a rough V. I am not expecting a bug drop atleast until $10k, after then there is a possibility of a bear run, but wouldn't expect it to last for long. Eh I think the correction is done.

I'm starting to suspect that the current ceiling is in US dollars, and it is $8,500. It doesn't seem capable of making a sustained breakthrough after its drop from $9,000. I think the answer is to ignore it until Monday, and re-evaluate the trend then.

On the GDAX exchange, there is a spike low on January 17th which bottomed at $9017 USD's. BTC has reached that level and declined as it is a resistance point, I would guess that it will make another attempt/test and it's 50/50 if it breaks through or declines again.  (It's common for an asset to test a resistance level a few times before breaking through)

It is hard to say where the price will be towards the end of Sunday, watch the $9017 level on the GDAX exchange and that will give you a clue. If it breaks $9017, it's going to the previous level I mentioned in my initial reply of $9499. (Which will be the next resistance level).   

After $9499, $11695 is the next high but it will be a while before that will happen, potentially the last week of this month. (If I were to speculate)

I thought that we are out of the woods already - for the last 2 days we have really nice gains.
But then again, today it wasn't pretty at all and I am afraid that a potential bearish stance could send bitcoin down to the low $5k.
Then we will see possible rebound - recently I am getting a headache trying to predict the price of BTC.

Can you draw the W pattern and host it on imgur maybe     Focus on longer term trend is correct because the conclusion from evaluating movement has a higher probability of a successful trend repeating.    Short term is actually very high, profitable if you are a trader because you can keep buying and selling and the compound gain is epic in theory.

So I see a longer term trend causing price to reach a boundary today, overall I expect negative for now as this is a trend over more then a month.   But Im interested to hear of counter trends that are more positive or even a longer term trend over the last year but thats hard as its moved so far

https://i.imgur.com/MBYqsiD.png
https://i.imgur.com/MBYqsiD.png


9,231 would be a break upwards is my guess

Well I don't really know what I'm talking about here, but that would seem to tie in with the "W". So it will need to drop quite a bit before it goes back up to that region.

This is what I am looking at for reference regarding my previous posts.

http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b55/Glenn408/btcdailyGdax.jpg~original (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/Glenn408/media/btcdailyGdax.jpg.html)

It looks like a classic downwards pattern to me if you look at that graph.  Certainly doesn't look like an upwards one.  Even to a newby

Yes, I also thought that the increase which is not that dramatic to begin with was sustainable at least to the $9K barrier. However, when I check the price today, its looks like we are in a read again.

I'm not that technical anyways, but I love reading those analysis from our members here and I love to see people sharing their analysis as to where and when the price is gong to move.

As for me, I wanted to see the $9K barrier to be broken and maybe, just maybe we can all say that we are out of the woods and breathe a sigh of relief.

But if the market goes down, no worry here, perfect buying opportunity and we can all stack up our wallets once again for a good long term hodl.

Most new people to technical analysis do not see a lot of things. (I will say that I am not a professional and do not see 'everything' either).  

But what you can see (And I stated this in my initial reply to this post), is that there is a volume spike for sells/buy's right at the last selloff. From the peak in Dec 17 to Feb 6th, this was the highest volume day which may have indicated the blow-off bottom.  (I say _may_ because BTC is not completly out of the downtrend on the daily chart) It has not recorded higher highs and higher lows.  Look at the chart and you can see the volume bars...

It is a bit easier to see the trend if you look at the candlesticks with a Heikin Ashi overlay, this smooths out the colors, Green = uptrend, Red = downtrend.

I've just been looking at the Deutsche bank situation ( I call it the Douche Bank ). I gather their derivatives exposure is two and a half times the whole of the US national debt. I'm expecting something to happen there. They have already defaulted on a delivery of physical gold, and I expect more is to come. If that kicks off, then that could have a massive impact on world banking. I can't work out if that would be good or bad for Bitcoin. I expect the knee jerk reaction would be to pull down the price of Bitcoin.

http://bigsig.com/s/jet-sig.png

 If we expect a big rise then it must confirm above a certain level.   If we see such an action the sellers may switch to buyers, as speculators often operate in this way.  That creates quite a large movement in a small amount of time, breakout :)

Its hard to guess where such points happen but usually the market comes to some consensus over time and we can become bullish.   I was just guessing where that might be.   I dont see a W right now, Im not clear where others do.   I guess that means we need to touch the flat support that was the low but I was thinking we do not recover in that way.   Or at least the market tries first before then the W scenario might play out, a good bottom is confirmed twice I have heard people say a few times.

https://i.imgur.com/KDPy4HG.png
https://i.imgur.com/KDPy4HG.png
Shorter term Fib levels would be shown here, basing on the recovery since the recent low.   So the low of an hour or so ago $8160 is 38.2% with present price above 50% retrace $8399 and then a breakout target would be $9989 which matches previous lows (month start) and adds some credibility to that as a previous level of support and future ceiling.

I believe we've breached the resistance stage because bitcoin have dumped to the $6200 price range during crypto blood bath and if you check cap market you'll see that almost all coins are slightly bullish. $6000 dip or hat breakout above $8,500 will start bull run or not? If I were you, I will withdraw some part of the fund into bitcoin this Sunday before it Monday because the bitcoin market look strengthen lately.

We'll see a dip before actually breaching $10k.

Market seems to be a bit reluctant to move up above $9k. The actual barrier is probably somewhere around $9000-9500, and once that is hit then we are free to move up to $10000+ without any worries whatsoever.

We're probably going to see price hang around $8k or so, for the upcoming few days though. Not sure if it's going to go down back to $7k.

But if it does, you know what to do... Buy the dip.

Good morning guys.

It looks as if I did the right thing by holding off. The price at the moment is just below $8,000. :)

This has led me to an  interesting ( to me ) point. How much do these price points in various currencies matter. I'm English so I look at things in the terms of Sterling, and I was watching the price movement around the £6,000 mark. Obviously the US dollar is the major currency used in price movement analysis, but I suspect that there will be local buyers and sellers who will base their investment choices on a local price quote.

It looks as if the "W" is getting a bit stretched out, so I'm not sure how to read the current graphs. I found it interesting to look at the inverse, somehow that seemed to give me a clearer picture of the recent movements. I guess I'm still very nuch an amateur in this world. My feeling is that the next significant price movement is going to be triggered by an event. Maybe another default by the Douche Bank, or the announcement of another national crypto-currency.

You make a great point.

There are three country's primary currencies that I'm aware of that is currently above or around the $10k barrier still:
- Canada
- New Zealand
- Australia

Australia in particular, these countries are all very big bitcoin countries that can't be discounted, and it's interesting to see that price has chosen to establish a floor at around these rates, around $10k in each of these local currencies. I do wonder if it plays on local traders psychologically too, sort of a delayed response from US traders. Obviously BTC's fall from grace only accelerated when $10k was broken.

Anyways, I can see this downtrend continue for a few more days before adjusting back up to around $8500 or so. This $9k barrier is proven to be harder to break than I would have initially thought, to be quite honest with you.

A beautiful thread, it has well articulated discussions, backed by charts. This is what Wall observer, and various other threads should have been. I feel at home.

https://i.imgur.com/7ZYMFwH_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium
The "V" that u was referring to.
In last 12 hours seems like it's tending towards the W pattern with the recent $500 drop, but it's still now much to make a difference. I am staying strong with my "V" at least until there is another $1000 drop.

Here are a few updated charts as of this morning (8:30am PST)

If you read my previous posts, my opinion has not changed, if you want to read the analysis, it is there.

Here is a 4hr chart from the GDAX exchange, the V bottom seen with a spike low on the GDAX exchange of 5873. BTC is in a trading range between the low at 7900 which was a peak last November and the spike low of 9017 in January 18.
http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b55/Glenn408/4hr.jpg~original (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/Glenn408/media/4hr.jpg.html)

The 2 hour chart show a little more detail of the trading channel. BTC appears to be heading back up to the 9017 resistance point and it will either break through or head back down within the channel.
http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b55/Glenn408/2hr.jpg~original (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/Glenn408/media/2hr.jpg.html)

One last tidbit of information regarding BTC, it produced a low for the year in January 2015, 16 and 17. In 18 it was in Feb, the 6th to be exact (My speculation).  Mark Twain once wrote that history does not always repeat itself, but often rhymes.

Well it still seems to be faffing about at £6,000, so I guess we need to wait and see how thngs shape up on Monday. I've still got a feeling that it is going to ease down a bit, but that could be wishful thinking. :)

I've just watched this video, which I found quite interesting. I'm starting to get a feel for these candles. :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7K6G9zzSgCk

The guy seems to think we are still in bear territory, so I'm holding off for a few more days. I might even move the money into my domain buying account and see if I can turn a profit there. I believe that the price of Bitcoin will be considerably higher by the end of the year, and maybe even during the summer, and I don't want to miss out on that price rise.

Hopefully it will be a "W" this time since the bloodbath that last for a couple of weeks. Bitcoin is start recovering and yes, glory to those who buy the dip at about 6,000$ and that's already a "Win-Win" situation considering Bitcoin's price at 8,000$ today.

No double-bottom "W' yet. The best you can hope for in recent price action is an inverted Head-and-Shoulders. But personally I give that low odds.