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Author Topic: Bitcoin price - is it a "W" or a breakthrough?  (Read 232 times)
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February 10, 2018, 08:05:16 PM
Merited by Jet Cash (1)
 #21

I started this thread because most price discussions seem to focus on a mid to long term trend, and I'm interested in the next couple of days. At the moment, Bitcoin is in an interesting price position, and I need to decide when I should withdraw some dollar valued funds into Bitcoin. I've read a lot of chartist comments, and some state that the price is in a "W", and may drop to $6.000 or so before rising again. Others seem to say that a breakout above $8,500 will start a bull run. I'm a long term HODLer, and I believe that the end of year price will be substantially higher, but before that I need to "buy the dip".

So what do you guys think about the next couple of days. Will a second leg of a "W" appear, and present a great buying window, or have we breached the resistance, and the price will hit $10,000 before next Monday?



Can you draw the W pattern and host it on imgur maybe     Focus on longer term trend is correct because the conclusion from evaluating movement has a higher probability of a successful trend repeating.    Short term is actually very high, profitable if you are a trader because you can keep buying and selling and the compound gain is epic in theory.

So I see a longer term trend causing price to reach a boundary today, overall I expect negative for now as this is a trend over more then a month.   But Im interested to hear of counter trends that are more positive or even a longer term trend over the last year but thats hard as its moved so far


https://i.imgur.com/MBYqsiD.png

Quote
Others seem to say that a breakout above $8,500 will start a bull run

9,231 would be a break upwards is my guess

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February 10, 2018, 09:06:18 PM
 #22


9,231 would be a break upwards is my guess

Well I don't really know what I'm talking about here, but that would seem to tie in with the "W". So it will need to drop quite a bit before it goes back up to that region.

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February 10, 2018, 09:25:30 PM
 #23

This is what I am looking at for reference regarding my previous posts.

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February 10, 2018, 09:31:34 PM
Merited by Jet Cash (1)
 #24

It looks like a classic downwards pattern to me if you look at that graph.  Certainly doesn't look like an upwards one.  Even to a newby
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February 10, 2018, 09:35:03 PM
 #25

I thought that we are out of the woods already - for the last 2 days we have really nice gains.
But then again, today it wasn't pretty at all and I am afraid that a potential bearish stance could send bitcoin down to the low $5k.
Then we will see possible rebound - recently I am getting a headache trying to predict the price of BTC.

Yes, I also thought that the increase which is not that dramatic to begin with was sustainable at least to the $9K barrier. However, when I check the price today, its looks like we are in a read again.

I'm not that technical anyways, but I love reading those analysis from our members here and I love to see people sharing their analysis as to where and when the price is gong to move.

As for me, I wanted to see the $9K barrier to be broken and maybe, just maybe we can all say that we are out of the woods and breathe a sigh of relief.

But if the market goes down, no worry here, perfect buying opportunity and we can all stack up our wallets once again for a good long term hodl.

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February 10, 2018, 09:38:09 PM
 #26

It looks like a classic downwards pattern to me if you look at that graph.  Certainly doesn't look like an upwards one.  Even to a newby

Most new people to technical analysis do not see a lot of things. (I will say that I am not a professional and do not see 'everything' either).  

But what you can see (And I stated this in my initial reply to this post), is that there is a volume spike for sells/buy's right at the last selloff. From the peak in Dec 17 to Feb 6th, this was the highest volume day which may have indicated the blow-off bottom.  (I say _may_ because BTC is not completly out of the downtrend on the daily chart) It has not recorded higher highs and higher lows.  Look at the chart and you can see the volume bars...

It is a bit easier to see the trend if you look at the candlesticks with a Heikin Ashi overlay, this smooths out the colors, Green = uptrend, Red = downtrend.
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February 10, 2018, 10:02:26 PM
 #27

I've just been looking at the Deutsche bank situation ( I call it the Douche Bank ). I gather their derivatives exposure is two and a half times the whole of the US national debt. I'm expecting something to happen there. They have already defaulted on a delivery of physical gold, and I expect more is to come. If that kicks off, then that could have a massive impact on world banking. I can't work out if that would be good or bad for Bitcoin. I expect the knee jerk reaction would be to pull down the price of Bitcoin.


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February 10, 2018, 10:54:36 PM
 #28

Well I don't really know what I'm talking about here, but that would seem to tie in with the "W". So it will need to drop quite a bit before it goes back up to that region.
 If we expect a big rise then it must confirm above a certain level.   If we see such an action the sellers may switch to buyers, as speculators often operate in this way.  That creates quite a large movement in a small amount of time, breakout Smiley

Its hard to guess where such points happen but usually the market comes to some consensus over time and we can become bullish.   I was just guessing where that might be.   I dont see a W right now, Im not clear where others do.   I guess that means we need to touch the flat support that was the low but I was thinking we do not recover in that way.   Or at least the market tries first before then the W scenario might play out, a good bottom is confirmed twice I have heard people say a few times.


https://i.imgur.com/KDPy4HG.png
Shorter term Fib levels would be shown here, basing on the recovery since the recent low.   So the low of an hour or so ago $8160 is 38.2% with present price above 50% retrace $8399 and then a breakout target would be $9989 which matches previous lows (month start) and adds some credibility to that as a previous level of support and future ceiling.

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February 10, 2018, 11:43:02 PM
 #29

I started this thread because most price discussions seem to focus on a mid to long term trend, and I'm interested in the next couple of days. At the moment, Bitcoin is in an interesting price position, and I need to decide when I should withdraw some dollar valued funds into Bitcoin. I've read a lot of chartist comments, and some state that the price is in a "W", and may drop to $6.000 or so before rising again. Others seem to say that a breakout above $8,500 will start a bull run. I'm a long term HODLer, and I believe that the end of year price will be substantially higher, but before that I need to "buy the dip".

So what do you guys think about the next couple of days. Will a second leg of a "W" appear, and present a great buying window, or have we breached the resistance, and the price will hit $10,000 before next Monday?


I believe we've breached the resistance stage because bitcoin have dumped to the $6200 price range during crypto blood bath and if you check cap market you'll see that almost all coins are slightly bullish. $6000 dip or hat breakout above $8,500 will start bull run or not? If I were you, I will withdraw some part of the fund into bitcoin this Sunday before it Monday because the bitcoin market look strengthen lately.

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February 10, 2018, 11:45:05 PM
 #30

We'll see a dip before actually breaching $10k.

Market seems to be a bit reluctant to move up above $9k. The actual barrier is probably somewhere around $9000-9500, and once that is hit then we are free to move up to $10000+ without any worries whatsoever.

We're probably going to see price hang around $8k or so, for the upcoming few days though. Not sure if it's going to go down back to $7k.

But if it does, you know what to do... Buy the dip.

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February 11, 2018, 08:48:25 AM
 #31

Good morning guys.

It looks as if I did the right thing by holding off. The price at the moment is just below $8,000. Smiley

This has led me to an  interesting ( to me ) point. How much do these price points in various currencies matter. I'm English so I look at things in the terms of Sterling, and I was watching the price movement around the £6,000 mark. Obviously the US dollar is the major currency used in price movement analysis, but I suspect that there will be local buyers and sellers who will base their investment choices on a local price quote.

It looks as if the "W" is getting a bit stretched out, so I'm not sure how to read the current graphs. I found it interesting to look at the inverse, somehow that seemed to give me a clearer picture of the recent movements. I guess I'm still very nuch an amateur in this world. My feeling is that the next significant price movement is going to be triggered by an event. Maybe another default by the Douche Bank, or the announcement of another national crypto-currency.

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February 11, 2018, 09:04:37 AM
 #32

Good morning guys.

It looks as if I did the right thing by holding off. The price at the moment is just below $8,000. Smiley

This has led me to an  interesting ( to me ) point. How much do these price points in various currencies matter. I'm English so I look at things in the terms of Sterling, and I was watching the price movement around the £6,000 mark. Obviously the US dollar is the major currency used in price movement analysis, but I suspect that there will be local buyers and sellers who will base their investment choices on a local price quote.

It looks as if the "W" is getting a bit stretched out, so I'm not sure how to read the current graphs. I found it interesting to look at the inverse, somehow that seemed to give me a clearer picture of the recent movements. I guess I'm still very nuch an amateur in this world. My feeling is that the next significant price movement is going to be triggered by an event. Maybe another default by the Douche Bank, or the announcement of another national crypto-currency.

You make a great point.

There are three country's primary currencies that I'm aware of that is currently above or around the $10k barrier still:
- Canada
- New Zealand
- Australia

Australia in particular, these countries are all very big bitcoin countries that can't be discounted, and it's interesting to see that price has chosen to establish a floor at around these rates, around $10k in each of these local currencies. I do wonder if it plays on local traders psychologically too, sort of a delayed response from US traders. Obviously BTC's fall from grace only accelerated when $10k was broken.

Anyways, I can see this downtrend continue for a few more days before adjusting back up to around $8500 or so. This $9k barrier is proven to be harder to break than I would have initially thought, to be quite honest with you.

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February 11, 2018, 09:11:03 AM
 #33

A beautiful thread, it has well articulated discussions, backed by charts. This is what Wall observer, and various other threads should have been. I feel at home.

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February 11, 2018, 09:35:55 AM
 #34


The "V" that u was referring to.
In last 12 hours seems like it's tending towards the W pattern with the recent $500 drop, but it's still now much to make a difference. I am staying strong with my "V" at least until there is another $1000 drop.
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February 11, 2018, 05:12:24 PM
 #35

Here are a few updated charts as of this morning (8:30am PST)

If you read my previous posts, my opinion has not changed, if you want to read the analysis, it is there.

Here is a 4hr chart from the GDAX exchange, the V bottom seen with a spike low on the GDAX exchange of 5873. BTC is in a trading range between the low at 7900 which was a peak last November and the spike low of 9017 in January 18.


The 2 hour chart show a little more detail of the trading channel. BTC appears to be heading back up to the 9017 resistance point and it will either break through or head back down within the channel.


One last tidbit of information regarding BTC, it produced a low for the year in January 2015, 16 and 17. In 18 it was in Feb, the 6th to be exact (My speculation).  Mark Twain once wrote that history does not always repeat itself, but often rhymes.
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February 11, 2018, 08:27:16 PM
 #36

Well it still seems to be faffing about at £6,000, so I guess we need to wait and see how thngs shape up on Monday. I've still got a feeling that it is going to ease down a bit, but that could be wishful thinking. Smiley

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February 12, 2018, 08:27:02 PM
 #37

I've just watched this video, which I found quite interesting. I'm starting to get a feel for these candles. Smiley
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7K6G9zzSgCk

The guy seems to think we are still in bear territory, so I'm holding off for a few more days. I might even move the money into my domain buying account and see if I can turn a profit there. I believe that the price of Bitcoin will be considerably higher by the end of the year, and maybe even during the summer, and I don't want to miss out on that price rise.

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February 13, 2018, 03:53:31 AM
 #38

Hopefully it will be a "W" this time since the bloodbath that last for a couple of weeks. Bitcoin is start recovering and yes, glory to those who buy the dip at about 6,000$ and that's already a "Win-Win" situation considering Bitcoin's price at 8,000$ today.

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February 13, 2018, 03:58:23 AM
 #39

Hopefully it will be a "W" this time since the bloodbath that last for a couple of weeks. Bitcoin is start recovering and yes, glory to those who buy the dip at about 6,000$ and that's already a "Win-Win" situation considering Bitcoin's price at 8,000$ today.

No double-bottom "W' yet. The best you can hope for in recent price action is an inverted Head-and-Shoulders. But personally I give that low odds.
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