Bitcoin Forum

Nice dig. Definitely lots of old coins has moved around yesterday, for whatever reason. we would probably know soon.

Gulp  :D

Yup, this is huge... Something is about to go down. Literaly speaking.

it could easily mean a large sell has happened off the books. a sell of this size (130k 3-yr old coins) would crash any exchange, so nobody would do it that way.

This is true, it could also mean a number of other things. In any case it has to be considered very bearish that such a chunk of coins has suddenly come into play again.

How do you figure that? I guessed it would be a smaller amount of older coins, seeing how there were no huge transactions yesterday (involving old coins) and no spike in total output volume.

There has been a lot of new investment in Bitcoin services and talk of big things to come in 2014. Could this not be coming out of storage to provide funds for some venture (or ventures)?

and copy and paste

"I've done a bit of blockchain exploring.

The block in question where all the bitcoin days were destroyed is this one:

https://blockchain.info/block/00000000000000048445e1220a78e53de15c74160ffbe4dad0b52099560e045f

About 120,000 btc were moved. There are many transactions in this block in the 4,500-5,000 btc range. I followed the source addresses back in time. The ones I've looked at all trace their heritage to this monstrous transaction from 27 January 2011:

https://blockchain.info/tx/8f8210694d3631a88ff410c573d80caf57db1d8af397bd47687aa4e4c1802464

A single transaction moved 400,000 btc to a single address; this one:

https://blockchain.info/address/1AYtnRppWM7tWQaVLpm7TvcHKrjKxgCRvX

So whoever made the transaction yesterday had 400,000 btc in a single address in 2011. If it isn't Satoshi, who the hell is it?

Note that that 1AY... address had some transactions on 26 November this year; shortly before the ATH on 28 November. A huge whale, perhaps the biggest single holder of btc in existence, is stirring. The question is, why?

EDIT: 400,000 btc in early 2011 was almost 10% of all btc in existence. In a single address. Wow."

Nice research and writeup. This is really interesting, and a bit scary. :o

Cthulhu rising?

release the ... ?

i is getting butterfly feeling in my stomach for some reason

Old coins moving is a positive sign 99% of the times regardless of short term price action.

Wow... You're right, I missed that. ~120k coins, a bit over 1000 days old. And it's pretty clear they were sold, because all the outputs just moved 'as is' to new addresses. No splitting, merging, mixing, or otherwise rearranging. Why would someone do that if not to simply transfer the funds to someone else?

Note that the transactions on Nov. 26 were of negligible quantity; however, if you follow some of the money around, it kinda looks like some of it was sold during 2012.

positive for who though? one thing is for sure, the fucker who is moving that pile around has been rumbled. he has now a short time to do what he has to do before the markets move against him. strap on yer crash helmets peeps  :o

as a big Steve Spielberg fan .. I told days ago that we going to need a bigger boat  ;D (actually on that day had a weird lucid dream about it, but with some Casascius coins in the middle ) ... 

Anyways just came to my mind another one ...

Jurassic Park T-Rex Breakout
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1koa2xAxCAw

 8)

It's like a hibernating bear at woke up.

Maybe he got some early insider info.

I just pulled all my bids. I'm not going to be the sucker stuck with $600 coins. I'd rather play it safe

relax, whoever had 400k coins in 2011, surely knows better than to dump them all on exchange :) he sat tight when it was at 1200, and no fundamentals has changed for him to suddenly need to cash out millions usd through an exchange where he would pay taxes when withdrawing and kill bitcoin in the process :) could be either a simple reorg or an off-books sale, these are not coming to gox.

PS still, out of curiosity, 0.1 btc bounty to whomever can provably link this move to an identity of the mover.

Keyword:Could. You don't know. I don't know.

I'm playing it safe. I like the amount of money I've made so far, I'd like to keep it.

I can't keep what I made secure with that big of a raincloud looming over my head.

Is it not possible that he or she just wanted to move coins from one address he or she controls to another? If I had 400K BTC all in one address, I'd get a bit nervous myself... I'd want some in Armory, some in paper wallets, some who knows where... but they'd still be mine.

Maybe they were having a cleanup and found the bit of paper they wrote the password on...  :D

Possible, but not likely. There were 120k coins in 28 addresses. Each was moved to a new address. So now there are still 120k coins in 28 addresses, just different addresses. No reorganisation, just a transfer.

Plus, if you thought your coins were safe where they sat since March 2nd, 2011, why change your mind now?

It's the Winklevii getting out.  They just found out there BIT trust is not going to be approved.  Funs over.

Volcanoes may lay dormant for thousands of years. However, If I see and feel it tremble, I get the fuck out of dodge for a while.

All this movements reminds me ... that

I am such Hodler ... and noting going to change it LoL .. But for some reason ... came to my my mind others hodlers in stock market like:

goog =>  334.09M Shares @ 367.70B Mkt cap
msft =>  8.35B      Shares @ 307.21B Mkt cap

Gates actually made a plan to split his shares til get complete retired and take care about his charity foundation, now he got 5%

But for while I think I just like this google shareholder sharehodler here ( such funny guy http://youtu.be/nTVUagiqmPs?t=1h18m25s ) lol     

ok i added some 100$ and 200$ buys after reading this :)

Not for the last spike, but the previous ones in bitcoin days destroyed: isn't it a lot of people moving coins from cold storage to cash out just after a big value loss?  

answer this question honestly, drop the bullcrap for 10 seconds:

Q: if you were given the option of (A) having $200m with probablty 100% or (B) having $1bn with probabilty 20%. Which wuld you choose?

You will never be given either of this options. If you had such an option, you'd blew it when it was (C) 1$. So not applicable, it is not some scared kid moving these coins.

He'd sell 28k coins for 20mil, good for just about anything in this world, if he would suddenly feel so itchy. Not much reason to move all, and definitely no reason to sell all. You don't amass significant portion of BTC economy by being stupid. There's something else going on.

does not compute.. goto line 10

Yeah, I think you're right, I suspect that this is a big private sale. Someone wants to lock in some profilt on a scale the exchanges can't handle. I'm sure they'll still have most of their coins, and they'll have a private island too!

Excellent post and excellent thread.

Good detective work! Seeing stuff like this sends a chill up my spine.

This is one cornered motherfucker of a market!

Probably. In fact, whenever the transaction volume goes up, bitcoin days destroyed is bound to go up too...
So the OP chart isn't much use on its own. The interesting metric is the ratio of bitcoin days destroyed / total output volume. That actually makes yesterday much more interesting: all the previous spikes in days destroyed were correlated to high output volume. Yesterday wasn't just the highest spike in days destroyed ever, it also happened on a day with below-average output volume.

Hmmmm, because you misplaced the slip of paper on which you wrote the password? In other words, because something makes you suspect your coins are no longer safe.

anyone on bitcoinbubble at that time?

edit: i meant http://www.bitlisten.com/

mod edit: changed webite to non-malware infested version

Also makes sense, maybe these just moved to a new, safer tech for cold storage. In fact that is the most plausible explanation yet, why they moved like they did.

Probably owner built a bunker in iceland just for storing those ;) He is already a wealthy man afterall, it is a certainty. Somebody who does not cash out millions for two years must have other means to survive.

Yeah, If those are really old coins, they were in an unencrypted wallet... would make sense to move them to Armory or a paper wallet.

A bigshot miner from 2010 leaves 120k coins unencrypted for almost 3 years?
I guess anything's possible...
Anyway, it's pretty clear they weren't moved to an exchange. Either they weren't sold, or they were sold off the market.
Either way, I don't expect this to affect market prices.

Back in 2010 the best way to secure your coins was to transfer your wallet.dat to a (possibly encrypted) USB drive, delete and shred the original file from your computer, then bury the USB drive in the backyard.

I'm not saying that this is what's going on. I'm just saying 140K from 2010, I'd want to do something to make sure they're safe.

very much this :)

has to be a non zero chance that satoshi has something to do with this

that can only be good for bitcoin ...

Who knows... maybe he really, really, really wants that island in the south pacific.

let me guess kind of  "island for mathematicians" :D hope he going to invite us for whiskey shots ;)

http://www.datensklaven.de/wp-content/plugins/wp-o-matic/cache/9317e_water_empire_island_C8muK_17621.jpg

http://idiomsgallery.blogspot.co.uk/2009/11/artificial-island.html (http://idiomsgallery.blogspot.co.uk/2009/11/artificial-island.html)

I entertain the idea this is knightmb moving/cashing out part of his 400k coins after the heat from the Romney's Bitcoin ransom has cooled off.

Noone believed he donated his 400k coins to wikileaks as he said, there's no proof of that on the blockchain.

I bet he feels now like a fool thinking that he risked his freedom from $1M when his coins are now worth +200 times that.

Few days ago one redditor posted that his drugdealer have 400k :
http://www.reddit.com/r/confession/comments/1tbeoi/i_build_a_bitcoin_monster/

Pretty funny.

Same info,  yet bulls see nothing odd,  bears see disaster.

No one can know for sure,  just make educated guesses.

One thing is for sure though on that graph I posted of bitcoin days every time we get a spike bitcoin price eventually gets hit.  That cannot be disputed (you can assign whatever other reasons you want but the chart is there,  just a fact no reasons needed) .  Whether the pattern gets broken,  we shall see.

can anyone trace back the previous spikes in bitcoin days destroyed, if they have a link with the current spike?

it could be that some early visionary is just cashing out 20% or so from his stash, after a price dip when bid sum tends to be high?

What did that say before he removed it?  I'm intensely curious.

he said drugs are bad mmmkayyy

It's obvious he is talking about the silk road founder being the drug dealer, paid in BTC, and also went to prison.

What if it just was some noob who had mined coins in the earliest days then stopped mining them when GPU's came around, forgot about their wallet and only now realized what they were worth and their first instinct was to sell it all so they could pay off their student debt, mortgage or whatever.

Guys don't necessarily think this is highly sophisticated market maker who wants to pump and dump. They would have been more subtle.

http://www.lelanicarver.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/DontPanic.jpg

 ;D Well, if the whale who moved the 120K BTC does dump his coins, then at least I will be able to buy BTC for double digits.

That's not entirely precise. The spikes you outlined on the chart actually take place a little bit after the price starts crashing, not before.
For each spike, I noted when it occurred relative to the crash, and how the price changed after the spike:

Date             BDD              Price change

14/06/2011    53,532,635    4 days after crash began. Price continued to decline slowly for months.
16/11/2011    52,127,501    2 days after crash began. Price rose over the following weeks.
10/04/2013    52,694,509    The day of the crash. Price continued to decline.

There was another big spike (above 50,000,000 days destroyed) which you didn't outline:

25/10/2013    57,050,042    1 day after small crash began. Followed by weeks of exponential increase.


So there's no clear correlation, except that transaction volume and bitcoin days destroyed spike after a crash begins, as people rush to move coins from their wallets to exchanges for liquidation. The price behaviour after a spike in bitcoin days destroyed is not at all consistent.

I will also note, as I've said before, that yesterday was significantly different from previous spikes in that output volume was low. What happened yesterday cannot be compared to the previous spikes.

I'll ask you one question what is your preferable exchange you will transfer 100k BTC ? ( $63M USD )

It's Bitcoin Santa filling his bitcoin stash. This years' gifts will be huge? =)

Nice tracing. I followed it from there a bit.

From that 400k transaction there's one address sending 25k - 1AxP9ex3rm2LpsdM5NZ4ed3qT4asVX6E72. This in turn gets funded by 16GJ6iK1S2R8XV4tjwbRzvThUUQTXYqrhW on 2010-10-16, which previously got 25k coins from 1CRZpkKKAt7G5uiK4JPBjBJGnozgiatFAs.

This last address actually pops up on the forum in July 2010, in the first post from NghtRppr at https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=30.msg2452#msg2452 :


(bitcoin2cash.com now redirects to localbitcoins.com) Looking back, NghtRppr was doing a few trades at that time. A few months later, in September 2010, the coins start to get sold to a few people: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1303.0

Working back up the chain, 1CRZ sent to 16GJ6 in this txn (https://blockchain.info/tx/22c9ea4c3754791652f22aa8c2fb8e830443a8392a272d5cb2521dd7f9330d38) at 2010-10-15 22:14:28 (according to blockchain.info), although the 45k got split into 20k and 25k - I guess one of those was change. Looking through NghtRppr's thread at https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1303.0, there's a post from jimbobway (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1303.msg17177#msg17177) at 2010-10-16 01:54:56 (I'm assuming my timestamps are all syncing up, but...) saying he got coins through:


Perhaps not much evidence beyond timing coincidence to directly link the two, but TBH, it's kind of just fun digging into it.

The 25k in 1GJ6 then got moved completely in one transaction later on the 16th to 1AxP9, and then into 1AYtn on 2011-01-27.

Most of the transactions since then are on 2011-03-01 and 03-02, looks like maybe someone running a mix on the coins at this point? But there are one or txns getting in the way between that and the 1AYtn address, so still no real direct link.

Wow, nice digging! I'm impressed.

Hmmm looks like some people will do anything to get cheap coins, scaring people with this kind of rubbish  >:(
 
It could be that someone has simply migrated coins from an old version of software to a new one. Especially in Electrum restoration from seed is not working across versions due to change wallets.

Or splitting/reorganizing his/her coins.

Something as simple as that.

The thread starter also fails to mention that some of the spikes triggered nothing or a bull market...

It could be a good thing, too - a whale performing an out-of-exchange transaction to a major investor?

Keyword: could

https://blockchain.info/address/1AYtnRppWM7tWQaVLpm7TvcHKrjKxgCRvX

this is realy frightening!!!

 :o

Nice exchange rate...

https://blockchain.info/fr/address/1Cp18yeabUg14CNp2HGwKisDoixiGgzmeT (https://blockchain.info/fr/address/1Cp18yeabUg14CNp2HGwKisDoixiGgzmeT)
400K are from plenty off small address like this one

Old miner for sure !
Belive me, he  sold at every step. Best strategy with 400K imo

https://blockchain.info/fr/address/1EHsyp9aXTB3ka1846jzeApNgHXyNioJ67 (https://blockchain.info/fr/address/1EHsyp9aXTB3ka1846jzeApNgHXyNioJ67)
how many miner in january 2010 ?

EDIT: https://blockchain.info/fr/block-index/38928 (https://blockchain.info/fr/block-index/38928)   Block #37375  Difficulty : 1.34  
EDIT² : mistake 2009 and 2010. but i dont understand, 1.34 difficulty after 12 months ?

Don't send the 400K BTC whale/extortionist any BTC. Let him try and sell 400K BTC. Good luck with that.  

120 000 BTC student debt

lol that was a random lowlife sending that transaction with blockchain.info wallet, where you can add a tag

Oh, good to hear. Although it seems he scammed some people out of a little BTC. I figured it was fishy.

Maybe he just bought LTC with the 400k? Or DOGE?  ;D
Anyway I'm on fiat until things clarify (there are more reasons to be concerned over the next weeks, I guess).

Am I reading this wrong?


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Public Note: The Bitcoin end is near. To stop the this, send some BTC to 1P5jcDcfkQtURLpVEG92CHAc3xvwhKaUAu



Nevermind, it's just someone who wasted money to put that message there.

I dug a little myself.  Someone was bouncing money all around throughout 2011.  Then some of these addresses became active again a few months ago.

https://blockchain.info/fr/address/1LXc28hWx1t8np5sCAb2EaNFqPwqJCuERD

http://richiewealthy.com/ seems to have been a scam site (no kidding).  Whois doesn't turn up anything interesting.

I'm not very experienced with blockchain sleuthing, so sorry if this is not useful.

Just dump the Fing coins already so I can have the holidays.

lol tera  ;D

Clearly this is just a whale transferring funds to the exchange to purchase superior DOGE coin and soon to be taking over by storm Earthcoins  ;)

Wow nice information, so how about you all come join me allday and see what happens in the trollbox at BTC-E, i am docmike there.... And i have nothing to do today, except buy low sell high

http://www.forbes.com/sites/andygreenberg/2013/12/20/feds-indict-three-more-alleged-employees-of-the-silk-roads-dread-pirate-roberts/

Probably what's going on

Who will Fontàs?

the guy with 400,000 btc was selling those coins in 4,000-10,000 chunks all the ways since April 2011, and not much left now.
No!! this guy did not sell those coins, he was distributing his btc in 4,000-10,000， this kind of small account, and those 120,000 btc still belongs to this guy, terrible!

Gone?? it was just transfered on blockchain today 400k worth

I hope that soon bitcoin exchanges will give users the possibility to import private keys, so, sometimes, we will have crashes (maybe), but at least not all this unnecessary bearish rumors, bears are definitely too chatter... 8)

Not today, check the dates. Most of that 400k started moving in 2011, and through 2012. What I understand is something like 156k old coins were moved recently, some of which passed through the 400k address in the past. And no-one knows for what purpose. It's all guessing

Silk Roads money either being seized by Feds or moved to thwart seizure seems like the likeliest explanation.

Same pattern since the beginning, so it's not silkroad related

That trail leads to this Mt. Gox deposit.

https://blockchain.info/address/1DbD7zFjYSQRiATc8dHxWUWSM9YmQYR9JW

Almost 500,000 coins on 11/18/2011?  Looks like there was some kind of play around that date, but not 500,000 BTC worth.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg5zczsg2011-11-18zeg2011-11-20ztgSzm1g10zm2g21zv

Thoughts?

There is no denying that, first, if chinas ban on 3rd parties companies to supply money to exchanges is not resolved then this can't be helped, if you guys had experienced the dotcom bubble you would understand what is going on around here, second, there are talks about the worst possible outcome for bitcoin and other cryptos but I'm not going to talk about it.

Oh, so none of us experience the dot com bubble? Ok. I didn't realize that I didn't experience that.

And there are "talks." Wow! Really? Talks? Oh dread.

China's bans are not going to be resolved. Bitcoin doesn't need China. Bye, bye China.

I have a funny feeling that bitcoin days destroyed will increase as the chain gets older.

I am now bored with this FUD it's probably Mt Gox restructuring it's internal accounts.

I like how suddenly we have 2-post prophets with inside info into bitcoin future :) Go on oh wise one, talk about the talks, we are ready to dump coins until the level which is comfortable for you to buy in at! ;)

Someone please come up with something a bit more frightening.  Claim Gavin Anderson been hacked or something. 

looks like i missed this FUD yesterday as i wasn't around.

Seeing 400,000 Bitcoins move around like that does feel like a dragon waking up from its slumber.

Gavin Anderson is a cyborg?

knightmb

That's the most likely thing.

Noone believes he donated 400k coins to Wikileaks.

I'll throw .1 BTC in to identity verification bounty too.   

The talk is Fontas trolling idiots on BTC-e that BTC is going to be banned in USA soon, Lol

It is probably this. The transfer could be from the same owner's old machine to his new one.

Or someone is trying to shake out some weak hands to accumulate even more coins (possibly for clients?) without selling a single coin.

can you imagine doing a transfer of 400k coins, i'd be shitting bricks when clicking on send in case i got the destination address wrong somehow.

I think one would be checking it letter by letter. Not sure if it helps, but I'd do it.

It is very unlikely to be an off the books sale.  When buyers go around looking for large amt of coins, they don't go to individual sellers.  They go to an exchange, that is the easiest way to get a large amt of coins.

it is more likely to cash out or maintenance in new wallet.

yep, there is your dump . square.

Who says it's was a buyer looking for a seller.  It's very possible the seller went shopping for a buyer and found one.

im sorry, but i bought a city in africa.

those are bought with blood.     By the gallon.



very interesting theory!  quite plausible indeed. 

Just wait til he spends 10% of his stash to buy Litecoin...

Be sure he switched his rigs to LTC long time ago...

Something tells me something big is about to happen..

Yes, BTC at 1000USD over xmas

Certainly been very boring for the whole of the last 2 days.

Something must be brewing.

MOABT (mother of all bear traps)?

Why?

If was a bear trap......it would be a pretty damn convincing one....but not the 'mother of all' bear traps cos all bears are already out, either waiting on much lower prices or on confirmation of trend reversing.

I suppose it might be the 'mother of all' bull traps, but again not really. Away from the heavily slanted bias of this forum, nobody with any kind of head for investment is looking at Bitcoin now and thinking, 'definite buy, it simply MUST go up'. Anyone entering market at this point in time must surely know they are taking a risk that this is indeed a stability period after the very bottom.

I am at this point in time, a bear. If BTC goes down, do I lose? Nope! I buy in, I win! If BTC goes up do I lose? Nope! I wait until it takes out some resistance levels, I therefore may miss-out on some upside, but that aint the same as losing.

So actually, its nothing. Most likely stabilising before taking another dive down, but possibly also stabilising before it takes leap up. Anyone who gets trapped here is either knowingly taking a risk or an idiot.

I disagree. Wealth investors and institutional investors look at bitcoin as boom or bust. I don't think many of them think that the price will be anywhere near $600 2-3 years from now. They believe it will either be between $0-$5 or $10k-$100k.  So, if you are going to take the chance on Bitcoin from their perspective, $600 is as good as $500 or $400 or whereever.

So, as a bear, you have to ask yourself, how long are you going to wait out for a couple hundred dollar cheaper coins, before the bigger money arrives next year.

No if you want to buy millions worth of BTC you don't go to an exchange; prices would explode and volume is not nearly high enough

Just like on stock exchanges. For large transactions you do an off the books or a dark pool transaction and this has possibly happened here; many Wall Street vehicles are interested in BTC. A mutual fund would ABSOLUTELY NOT open an account with MtGox. HAHAHA!! What an idea.

No they would find a counterparty with large holdings. Then for technical/financial/bookkeeping reasons they would not import private keys but have a transaction so that they have a paper trail/evidence for their purchase.

And for the seller it is the only way to get rid of a large chunk of coins without _imploding_ the price. Exactly the same is true for large stock transactions.

Either that or a simple reorg/migration move.  :P

BTC is great but attracts too many people with mental problems, at least some posts suggest that. (did not mean you accord01)  ::)

dude, no serious inistutional player is going to invest in btc. the fund managers won't risk their jobs on it, simple as that. why take a risk and get involved with somethin on the fringe like btc when they can just stick to stocks and bonds. believe me dude, i work in finance for 21 years now, i know this shit. the only "institutions" who might get involved are boutuque funds like winkledouche etf. the big boys won't touch, it took 25 years+ before the big insitutions would even touch the hedgies. how long do u think it will take for something like anon digital currency. too fucking long for the likes on this forum.

Oh, that explains it. I was wondering about you. A professional fiat person.

yeah, blah blah blah

http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/230346

And if that article rings true, do you think the Big Boys are going to be piling into Bitcoin at $1K per coin or whatever ludicrous ATH all that 'naive' Wall St money pushes Bitcoin to, or are they more likely to be buying in at unfathomable lows. If such institutional investors are entering the market for the long term, do you think it would be beneath them to push the market much lower in the short-term, and hold it there, having it drag along the depths as they slowly take their positions?

See, you posted a bear article without even realising it.

The Big Boys will be buying low. After they have severely restricted the volume of 'free Bitcoin' in circulation, everyone else will push Bitcoin up. They will make huge profits, other people might also do ok, many othres may find themselves 'actually using' Bitcoin, but in the long long run, most investment capital that goes into Bitcoin will lose value.......no different from any other asset class that ever did exist.

This is a half-truth at best. Having 30%, 50% or 100% more of something is quite a difference. Smart money looks for the best entry point in a given timeframe, especially when dealing with an extremely volatile asset as it is BTC.

dude you call that a serious player? the founder said that $70m "blows his mind" wtf?

Honestly hundreds of millions is basically a rounding error for the big boys on Wall Street.  So, I don't see why it couldn't happen... if it works out well more money will come.

Generally speak, change the wallet every 6 months is a good practice. Even your backups are stolen and the encryption password is being brute forced by a GPU cluster, you are still fine. Recently I heard several stories about coins in old wallet were stolen after several months

a few notes

even if true, we are effectively in about 1988 of the internet, eg pre mosaic age...on the sun sparc, which was really the first browser combo that is still effectively what we see today, so year left to get to 2000-2001 dot com bubble crash.

the dot com bubble, benefits and losses were limited to silicon valley tech etc.


Bitcoin is much more widely accessible.

the Dot come era, looked to replace communication modes, eg, mail, reading info etc.

the Crypto era looks to replace / upgrade fundamental aspects of society, which hither too have never been done before in human history.

eg, unidentifiable, unsiezable wallet / store of wealth that can be paid to anyone anytime, this is a complete paradigm change in human history, without few things to compare to it....

I for one would like some examples of something similar to prove me wrong.

you did? care to elaborate? maybe they had PK printed out on a wall in a public place?

I like the irony of that.

Two cases, wallet not accessed/working fine for several months and suddenly one day the coins are gone

http://bbs.btcman.com/thread-8909-1-1.html
http://bbs.btcman.com/thread-11475-1-1.html

The most possible explanation is that a backup of the wallet is stolen long time ago, but due to there are encryptions/password protections, it has to be brute forced, maybe time consuming, but still not totally impossible. And it is possible the password pattern of that specific user is being analyzed using social engineering/Trojan  during that period

If you have a cold storage that has never been accessed for the past 2 years, how can you make sure that no one has ever made a copy of that wallet? Unless you are sleeping with it every day ;)

don't read chinese, so pretty hard to understand with google translate, but I would bet it is a user error, just like other hundreds of similar cases. Like you say, trojan could steal the file and keylog the password, and that is the most plausible explanation, in case user did not just keep the password in a text file. You would be surprised, but many do. I don't think it is practical to bruteforce a 20-digit password, it's millions of years. and it definitely is not plausible to pick up a PK for a public key, would be much more realistic to just guess the 20-digit password on the first try, than to bruteforce the PK in a year on all world's computers combined.

is bitcoin ever going to get a USA exchange?

kind of crazy that half the volume is USA based (or close to it), and there is not a single USA bitcoin exchange?

I think that would be a bullish signal for me (personally).

Yeah how about an exchange where you don't have to constantly check the website to see if the domain name has disappeared or not.

Yeah I don't get it.  How can there not be a USA exchange?

The exchanges are bitcoins weakness.  There is not a single properly functioning scam free exchange. 

Somewhat true, but only small part of the story. BTC market, like all commodity markets is now and will continue to be heavily manipulated by those with big resources. That's just the way it is. And an unregulated like market like btc even more so. Trying to beat them or deny them is just stupid. Understanding them and following them is smart.

A market like btc must be "conditioned" as part of the process of bringing big money to the table.  The market is "conditioned" by running the price up and down, shaking out weak hands, and enticing new money into the game - who will soon become future weak hands. Conditioning the market spreads the coins around, and ultimately grows the coffers of the big players - who are driving the market fluctuations. If the price stays too low for too long, you have no new money coming into the arena.  A depressed and sad market is not what the big money wants. They will drive prices down to capitulation levels, just long enough to shake out the fearful weak hands - without destroying the underlying market. If the price gets too far ahead, the big players can't get hold of enough new coins at low prices. So there is incentive for the big players to increase volatility, and keep people caught in their emotions (fear, greed). Just like a casino. Exactly like a casino.

Also it is important to realize that it is not easy to say what "wall street money" is going to do at any particular time. They are not one mind entity - they are competing whales, trying to get over on each other and at the same time pull as much coin from the clueless emotion-driven little guy as possible. This creates competition and more confusion if you are trying to understand what is going on. And also makes it very difficult for anyone entity to fully control what is happening. That is the genius of markets - even flawed and heavily manipulated ones.

Morale: If you are feeling fear when the price goes down and greed when the price goes up, there is a target on your coins. Lock them away carefully and do not play with the big boys. Or as Cat says above, you will certainly lose.

Although I am a very strong long-term bull, I love lower prices (I buy more coins). I also love high prices (I do nothing - well occasionally sell 10%).


BTW - Love the research done on the OP chart. Thanks for that! My own take....I believe (perhaps naively) that anyone who owns that many coins for this long, and was part of building this community early on has a strong incentive to do what is in BTC's best interest. Probably sold the coins to some player or company that will strengthen the ecosystem. I think we will see lot more of this as we forward, and the wealth of the early founders becomes massive. They will spend their btc to support and nurture the ecosystem. They are clearly very very rich men personally already.

Once bitcoin becomes more widely spread it will be possibly (at least theoretically, for now) to do most of your business via localbitcoins. Or just local trade meets. The exchanges are a necessary, but ultimately temporary, part of bitcoins growth. But we won't have to rely on them forever.

Not true.

I buy and sell Bitcoin mostly in USD.

I am from the UK, and the exchange I mostly use is in Slovenia.



Excellent post and interesting perspective on the BTC market and what forces may be be driving it.

CampBX?  Based in GA.  That's who I use.  I've never had a problem getting money out.  Getting USD in is a bit tricky though.

I wrote that last night. And this morning...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/blockchain-acquires-zeroblock-killer-app-191630464.html

QED? Could be...

Those guys definitely have lots of old coins.

Smile, fearful ones. Its Christmas. God Bless Us, Everyone.

Im sorry i had to bump this this lol:

http://trollboxarchive.com/search.php?search_type=username&search=fontas

Fontas was trying to cash in, directing the trollbox the other day trying to grab some cheap coins.

we have a second blip!  looks like more cheap coins are coming!!!

https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year

Our of curiosity - any chance the recent massive coin movements are related to what's happening at MtGox now?

I have this vague memory of hitting a MtGox-related address when I was tracing addresses, but couldn't swear to it and can't be bothered to trace it through again.