bitcoin bear chart

[Piper67]

because something makes you suspect your coins are no longer safe.

Also makes sense, maybe these just moved to a new, safer tech for cold storage. In fact that is the most plausible explanation yet, why they moved like they did.

Yeah, If those are really old coins, they were in an unencrypted wallet... would make sense to move them to Armory or a paper wallet.

A bigshot miner from 2010 leaves 120k coins unencrypted for almost 3 years?
I guess anything's possible...
Anyway, it's pretty clear they weren't moved to an exchange. Either they weren't sold, or they were sold off the market.
Either way, I don't expect this to affect market prices.

Back in 2010 the best way to secure your coins was to transfer your wallet.dat to a (possibly encrypted) USB drive, delete and shred the original file from your computer, then bury the USB drive in the backyard.

I'm not saying that this is what's going on. I'm just saying 140K from 2010, I'd want to do something to make sure they're safe.

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[BazkieBumpercar]

answer this question honestly, drop the bullcrap for 10 seconds:

Q: if you were given the option of (A) having $200m with probablty 100% or (B) having $1bn with probabilty 20%. Which wuld you choose?

You will never be given either of this options. If you had such an option, you'd blew it when it was (C) 1$. So not applicable, it is not some scared kid moving these coins.

He'd sell 28k coins for 20mil, good for just about anything in this world, if he would suddenly feel so itchy. Not much reason to move all, and definitely no reason to sell all. You don't amass significant portion of BTC economy by being stupid. There's something else going on.

very much this

[melvster]

has to be a non zero chance that satoshi has something to do with this

that can only be good for bitcoin ...

[Piper67]

answer this question honestly, drop the bullcrap for 10 seconds:

Q: if you were given the option of (A) having $200m with probablty 100% or (B) having $1bn with probabilty 20%. Which wuld you choose?

You will never be given either of this options. If you had such an option, you'd blew it when it was (C) 1$. So not applicable, it is not some scared kid moving these coins.

He'd sell 28k coins for 20mil, good for just about anything in this world, if he would suddenly feel so itchy. Not much reason to move all, and definitely no reason to sell all. You don't amass significant portion of BTC economy by being stupid. There's something else going on.

very much this

Who knows... maybe he really, really, really wants that island in the south pacific.

[knightcoin]

answer this question honestly, drop the bullcrap for 10 seconds:

Q: if you were given the option of (A) having $200m with probablty 100% or (B) having $1bn with probabilty 20%. Which wuld you choose?

You will never be given either of this options. If you had such an option, you'd blew it when it was (C) 1$. So not applicable, it is not some scared kid moving these coins.

He'd sell 28k coins for 20mil, good for just about anything in this world, if he would suddenly feel so itchy. Not much reason to move all, and definitely no reason to sell all. You don't amass significant portion of BTC economy by being stupid. There's something else going on.

very much this

Who knows... maybe he really, really, really wants that island in the south pacific.

let me guess kind of  "island for mathematicians" hope he going to invite us for whiskey shots



http://idiomsgallery.blogspot.co.uk/2009/11/artificial-island.html

[Rampion]

relax, whoever had 400k coins in 2011, surely knows better than to dump them all on exchange he sat tight when it was at 1200, and no fundamentals has changed for him to suddenly need to cash out millions usd through an exchange where he would pay taxes when withdrawing and kill bitcoin in the process could be either a simple reorg or an off-books sale, these are not coming to gox.

PS still, out of curiosity, 0.1 btc bounty to whomever can provably link this move to an identity of the mover.

I entertain the idea this is knightmb moving/cashing out part of his 400k coins after the heat from the Romney's Bitcoin ransom has cooled off.

Noone believed he donated his 400k coins to wikileaks as he said, there's no proof of that on the blockchain.

I bet he feels now like a fool thinking that he risked his freedom from $1M when his coins are now worth +200 times that.

[themaskedone]

Few days ago one redditor posted that his drugdealer have 400k :
http://www.reddit.com/r/confession/comments/1tbeoi/i_build_a_bitcoin_monster/

[jasonjm]

Pretty funny.

Same info,  yet bulls see nothing odd,  bears see disaster.

No one can know for sure,  just make educated guesses.

One thing is for sure though on that graph I posted of bitcoin days every time we get a spike bitcoin price eventually gets hit.  That cannot be disputed (you can assign whatever other reasons you want but the chart is there,  just a fact no reasons needed) .  Whether the pattern gets broken,  we shall see.

[Kj1]

can anyone trace back the previous spikes in bitcoin days destroyed, if they have a link with the current spike?

it could be that some early visionary is just cashing out 20% or so from his stash, after a price dip when bid sum tends to be high?

[w1R903]

Few days ago one redditor posted that his drugdealer have 400k :
http://www.reddit.com/r/confession/comments/1tbeoi/i_build_a_bitcoin_monster/

What did that say before he removed it?  I'm intensely curious.

[jasonjm]

he said drugs are bad mmmkayyy

[GeniuSxBoY]

Yes i know. And the reason why he has so much is that he was paid in BTC for a big deal before going to prison

It's obvious he is talking about the silk road founder being the drug dealer, paid in BTC, and also went to prison.

[tinus42]

What if it just was some noob who had mined coins in the earliest days then stopped mining them when GPU's came around, forgot about their wallet and only now realized what they were worth and their first instinct was to sell it all so they could pay off their student debt, mortgage or whatever.

Guys don't necessarily think this is highly sophisticated market maker who wants to pump and dump. They would have been more subtle.

[samsam]

"You guys are all FUCKED"

http://noblecustom.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/michael-douglas_hepta.jpg

  Well, if the whale who moved the 120K BTC does dump his coins, then at least I will be able to buy BTC for double digits.

[MaxwellsDemon]

One thing is for sure though on that graph I posted of bitcoin days every time we get a spike bitcoin price eventually gets hit.  That cannot be disputed (you can assign whatever other reasons you want but the chart is there,  just a fact no reasons needed) .  Whether the pattern gets broken,  we shall see.

That's not entirely precise. The spikes you outlined on the chart actually take place a little bit after the price starts crashing, not before.
For each spike, I noted when it occurred relative to the crash, and how the price changed after the spike:

Date             BDD              Price change

14/06/2011    53,532,635    4 days after crash began. Price continued to decline slowly for months.
16/11/2011    52,127,501    2 days after crash began. Price rose over the following weeks.
10/04/2013    52,694,509    The day of the crash. Price continued to decline.

There was another big spike (above 50,000,000 days destroyed) which you didn't outline:

25/10/2013    57,050,042    1 day after small crash began. Followed by weeks of exponential increase.


So there's no clear correlation, except that transaction volume and bitcoin days destroyed spike after a crash begins, as people rush to move coins from their wallets to exchanges for liquidation. The price behaviour after a spike in bitcoin days destroyed is not at all consistent.

I will also note, as I've said before, that yesterday was significantly different from previous spikes in that output volume was low. What happened yesterday cannot be compared to the previous spikes.

[Odalv]

I'll ask you one question what is your preferable exchange you will transfer 100k BTC ? ( $63M USD )

[Anduck]

It's Bitcoin Santa filling his bitcoin stash. This years' gifts will be huge? =)

[scribe]

and copy and paste

"I've done a bit of blockchain exploring.

The block in question where all the bitcoin days were destroyed is this one:

https://blockchain.info/block/00000000000000048445e1220a78e53de15c74160ffbe4dad0b52099560e045f

About 120,000 btc were moved. There are many transactions in this block in the 4,500-5,000 btc range. I followed the source addresses back in time. The ones I've looked at all trace their heritage to this monstrous transaction from 27 January 2011:

https://blockchain.info/tx/8f8210694d3631a88ff410c573d80caf57db1d8af397bd47687aa4e4c1802464

A single transaction moved 400,000 btc to a single address; this one:

https://blockchain.info/address/1AYtnRppWM7tWQaVLpm7TvcHKrjKxgCRvX

So whoever made the transaction yesterday had 400,000 btc in a single address in 2011. If it isn't Satoshi, who the hell is it?

Note that that 1AY... address had some transactions on 26 November this year; shortly before the ATH on 28 November. A huge whale, perhaps the biggest single holder of btc in existence, is stirring. The question is, why?

EDIT: 400,000 btc in early 2011 was almost 10% of all btc in existence. In a single address. Wow."

Nice tracing. I followed it from there a bit.

From that 400k transaction there's one address sending 25k - 1AxP9ex3rm2LpsdM5NZ4ed3qT4asVX6E72. This in turn gets funded by 16GJ6iK1S2R8XV4tjwbRzvThUUQTXYqrhW on 2010-10-16, which previously got 25k coins from 1CRZpkKKAt7G5uiK4JPBjBJGnozgiatFAs.

This last address actually pops up on the forum in July 2010, in the first post from NghtRppr at https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=30.msg2452#msg2452 :

http://bitcoin2cash.com/

For every 5000 bitcoins sent to 1CRZpkKKAt7G5uiK4JPBjBJGnozgiatFAs you will receive $1.00 USD in cash by mail.

...

(bitcoin2cash.com now redirects to localbitcoins.com) Looking back, NghtRppr was doing a few trades at that time. A few months later, in September 2010, the coins start to get sold to a few people: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1303.0

Working back up the chain, 1CRZ sent to 16GJ6 in this txn at 2010-10-15 22:14:28 (according to blockchain.info), although the 45k got split into 20k and 25k - I guess one of those was change. Looking through NghtRppr's thread at https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1303.0, there's a post from jimbobway at 2010-10-16 01:54:56 (I'm assuming my timestamps are all syncing up, but...) saying he got coins through:

I have finally received my bitcoins from bitcoin2cash.  Thx!!!

Perhaps not much evidence beyond timing coincidence to directly link the two, but TBH, it's kind of just fun digging into it.

The 25k in 1GJ6 then got moved completely in one transaction later on the 16th to 1AxP9, and then into 1AYtn on 2011-01-27.

Most of the transactions since then are on 2011-03-01 and 03-02, looks like maybe someone running a mix on the coins at this point? But there are one or txns getting in the way between that and the 1AYtn address, so still no real direct link.

[granathus]

and copy and paste

"I've done a bit of blockchain exploring.

The block in question where all the bitcoin days were destroyed is this one:

https://blockchain.info/block/00000000000000048445e1220a78e53de15c74160ffbe4dad0b52099560e045f

About 120,000 btc were moved. There are many transactions in this block in the 4,500-5,000 btc range. I followed the source addresses back in time. The ones I've looked at all trace their heritage to this monstrous transaction from 27 January 2011:

https://blockchain.info/tx/8f8210694d3631a88ff410c573d80caf57db1d8af397bd47687aa4e4c1802464

A single transaction moved 400,000 btc to a single address; this one:

https://blockchain.info/address/1AYtnRppWM7tWQaVLpm7TvcHKrjKxgCRvX

So whoever made the transaction yesterday had 400,000 btc in a single address in 2011. If it isn't Satoshi, who the hell is it?

Note that that 1AY... address had some transactions on 26 November this year; shortly before the ATH on 28 November. A huge whale, perhaps the biggest single holder of btc in existence, is stirring. The question is, why?

EDIT: 400,000 btc in early 2011 was almost 10% of all btc in existence. In a single address. Wow."

Nice tracing. I followed it from there a bit.

From that 400k transaction there's one address sending 25k - 1AxP9ex3rm2LpsdM5NZ4ed3qT4asVX6E72. This in turn gets funded by 16GJ6iK1S2R8XV4tjwbRzvThUUQTXYqrhW on 2010-10-16, which previously got 25k coins from 1CRZpkKKAt7G5uiK4JPBjBJGnozgiatFAs.

This last address actually pops up on the forum in July 2010, in the first post from NghtRppr at https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=30.msg2452#msg2452 :

http://bitcoin2cash.com/

For every 5000 bitcoins sent to 1CRZpkKKAt7G5uiK4JPBjBJGnozgiatFAs you will receive $1.00 USD in cash by mail.

...

(bitcoin2cash.com now redirects to localbitcoins.com) Looking back, NghtRppr was doing a few trades at that time. A few months later, in September 2010, the coins start to get sold to a few people: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1303.0

Working back up the chain, 1CRZ sent to 16GJ6 in this txn at 2010-10-15 22:14:28 (according to blockchain.info), although the 45k got split into 20k and 25k - I guess one of those was change. Looking through NghtRppr's thread at https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1303.0, there's a post from jimbobway at 2010-10-16 01:54:56 (I'm assuming my timestamps are all syncing up, but...) saying he got coins through:

I have finally received my bitcoins from bitcoin2cash.  Thx!!!

Perhaps not much evidence beyond timing coincidence to directly link the two, but TBH, it's kind of just fun digging into it.

The 25k in 1GJ6 then got moved completely in one transaction later on the 16th to 1AxP9, and then into 1AYtn on 2011-01-27.

Most of the transactions since then are on 2011-03-01 and 03-02, looks like maybe someone running a mix on the coins at this point? But there are one or txns getting in the way between that and the 1AYtn address, so still no real direct link.

Wow, nice digging! I'm impressed.

[leopard2]

Hmmm looks like some people will do anything to get cheap coins, scaring people with this kind of rubbish 
 
It could be that someone has simply migrated coins from an old version of software to a new one. Especially in Electrum restoration from seed is not working across versions due to change wallets.

Or splitting/reorganizing his/her coins.

Something as simple as that.

The thread starter also fails to mention that some of the spikes triggered nothing or a bull market...

It could be a good thing, too - a whale performing an out-of-exchange transaction to a major investor?